Mark Dixon
Morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning for our 2025 results.
Overall, a very good year, both financially and operationally, and strategically we continue to roll out the plan that we've set out over the past years. I want to take you through briefly exactly why that matters, and in particular in these volatile times with geopolitics at play, with the AI question that everyone keeps asking.
What is our business going to be about over the coming years? When I started IWG, they were different times.
That was before the internet. That was a time when mobile phones weighed quite a few kilos.
The idea then was simple: it was about giving people access to great workspace, great work tools. Even though I started with one centre, it was about doing it better than anything else they can get on the market.
Now, that's morphed into doing that wherever and whenever they want it, and that is the business we have today. That's me.
When you look at today, we've got a business more relevant than ever in this changing world. What's very, very clear is that customers, companies, want to rent, not own.
They want to be capital-light. They don't want to invest in facilities, fit-out, furniture for long terms.
They really value an asset-light activity. I give you a quick example of this: this is one of the largest tech firms in the world, big customer of ours.
I made the mistake, when I was on a conference call with the CFO, saying, "Well, I'm sure cash flow is not your problem, and you probably're not interested in being capital-light." Said, "No, absolutely the opposite.
We are very interested in being capital-light. We want to spend every last dollar on data centres and AI.
We don't want to spend any money on anything else. We're absolutely rationing capital in the business, and we really like things that are flexible, we really like things that are capital-light."
Moving to flexibility, our share price got hit by the AI sort of meltdown, which is the end of commercial property, apparently. What people underestimated is that companies really value flexibility.
If you're a CFO or a CEO today, and you're trying to work out how many people you're going to be employing in '27 and '28, '29, that's an impossible task, because everyone's clear that AI will change the number of people that you have, change the type of people that you have, but it's hard to predict what it will actually be. More and more companies now are adopting both a capital-light and a more flexible approach to how they support their people.
There's a very straight correlation: the more publicity there is about AI, the more our inquiries go up, and the more our sales go up. This is absolutely helping us grow our revenues as we come into 2026.
That's the one side: we've got great demand, and demand's getting stronger, that's converting into sales, we've got a very good revenue story. If we look at supply side, this is the property industry.
Now, that's changed completely, and it continues to change, where the property industry, now it's starting to understand that it's not just about having assets, it's about how you use them. They are becoming more and more interested in adding value to their real estate, adding value to their assets, and turning them into products that companies can buy.
We help them with that. We've got unprecedented growth last year, and it will be the same this year, with more and more property companies, more and more investors, pension funds, institutions of all kinds saying, "We want to be in a much more operational real estate business, adding more value to the people that are going to be using it."
That is really helping us on the supply side. We've done some fantastic deals, team did a great job last year.
Certainly with getting more institutional larger centres in cities along with growing the network into the provinces as the sort of light bulb moment happens within institutions. What we deliver is a completely different cash flow.
We deliver cash flow, and we deliver a completely different cash flow, with effectively delivering to an investor at least one, but an average about 1.8 times whatever the yield they would have had. It's a significant increase in cash flow by giving the customer what they want, using an efficient platform to do it, which is our platform.
Today we're very much the market leader globally, nationally, on any count with the network that we have today. We're very optimistic about the future.
The strategy is working, and you're going to see it work again in '26 and beyond as our underlying strategy of moving to a billion of EBITDA that we've telegraphed on every meeting, we just keep taking steps closer to it, reliably, with no surprises. Just looking at the scale of what we have so far, a few numbers.
It's the biggest, it's the most extensive network on every count. More than a million rooms open now, 4,600 centres, and there's another 1,000 centres that are in the contract stage now.
Over 120 countries, mixed blessings on that one in terms of the Middle East at the moment, but very, very broad coverage, and pipeline of about 230,000 rooms that are already signed and in the pipeline at the moment. That is before we sign up new locations this year.
The size of the network is very important in terms of what customers are looking for is coverage. What we are looking for is coverage to help those customers, and using lots and lots of tools to get scale benefits from having these large networks that work both for the customer and, most importantly, for the cost of operations, we can operate and supply at most efficient, the best prices at the best margin because of the scale.
We work all of that through. In terms of competition, look, there's plenty of competition out there, but it's very small and fragmented.
Overall, our network today is bigger than the next 10 competitors combined, and we're growing at a much higher rate than any of those competitors or the market overall. One of the other things, it's another AI avenue, they said, "Well, aren't you going to get disintermediated?"
because they think somehow we're in the booking business or tech business. Whilst we are in it, it's a very small part of our business.
Most of it is about having all these properties, operating these properties, and supporting workers. Yes, the workforce will change, but it will change in our favour and so on.
And, "Can what we do be duplicated?" I had that question this morning on—can't remember what it was, I think it was FT—"Can you be duplicated?"
The answer is, "No, not quickly." What we have is something built up over nearly 40 years, lots of relationships, setting up in all these countries, tax, accounting, all of these things hard to do.
It's not something you can do overnight. The network size really important, and I think we have a very, very significant moat between us and any future competition that comes along.
Capital-light, this, I think, is one of the most important structural stories, and it hasn't yet been understood fully. I'm sure everyone in this room understands it, but certainly outside, that is when I'm talking to journalists or on the outside world, we haven't landed this message yet.
They think somehow either own real estate or somehow have some kind of risk in it. This is very much a success story.
If you look at the chart here, you can see that when we started doing capital-light deals, that is partnering with the property industry, about 15% of the network was managed and franchised. Today, it's 33%.
If you add in the pipeline, we're at 50% already, and that's without anything signed up this year. We continue to move the business, it grows, but the highest growth is in the managed and franchised.
That starts to become a bigger and bigger percentage of the business, which helps explain the investment case. It starts to become the major part of the business, and it's a really reliable part of the business, and Charlie will talk to you more about that.
This is about continuing to deliver. When we talked about it in the beginning, people said, "Yeah, good idea, but not sure you can deliver it."
Every year now, we continue to deliver. I think it's that consistency of delivery that sort of helps in the investment case.
It's a capital-light delivery, it's high margin, it generates a lot of cash, and there's obviously a lot less balance sheet risk. It sort of shows well, and it's helping us grow much more quickly.
What it does also is helps validate and use our IP. Our IP is the systems, multiple brands, it's our ability to actually create revenue.
We have a massive sales operation that is a direct operation, direct to the customer, that the more centres we have on the network, the more that the overall platform is validated, the more revenues we get. Look, overall, we feel that we've got a complete rerating story of the business.
That hasn't come through yet, but it will come through, and I'll talk more to that in a moment. Again, another underestimated part of what we do is the fact that we've got a genuine breadth of brands.
These brands allow us to do pretty much any building, we can go all the way from super budget to six-star centres. We do laboratories, we do medical suites, we do a whole range of cash-generative enterprises that building investors and owners can tap into and decide what brand, what activity suits their building, and we support them in that choice.
What it gives us is an ability to keep fuelling the growth as more and more real estate starts to become more operational. This is a key differentiator.
No competitor has more than one brand. They're all doing single brands, they're all very fragmented.
The brand suite we have here, very powerful part of our overall IP. Slide here on the investment case.
This is a slide we showed in December at our investor day. I'm sure many of you have seen it, but just to reiterate, what we're doing is very similar to what the hotel groups did some time back: they moved to a franchising model, more asset-light model, which enabled faster scaling, generated extraordinary free cash flow, and allowed exceptional shareholder returns.
Much so that the best operators in this group are trading at 15 times, 16—the best, when we last looked, was 19 times EBITDA. Long way from where we are at the moment, clearly, but we are doing exactly what they are doing, and we're following this path.
The business becomes more and more capital-light, much more flexible, much more cash-generative as we move forward. They've already followed this path, but we have much stronger megatrends.
We're dealing here in a market where we're Marriott without a Hilton or an IHG and every other hotel group. We're pretty much on our own.
It's a huge addressable market. That's the real estate office industry, about a $2 trillion market.
It's a market that is changing. What all these stories about, whether it's AI, whatever it is, work from home, work from an office, all of these stories are all about how technology is changing the way companies and people work, and we're at the forefront of that and benefiting from it.
Huge opportunity in the future as we continue to grow the network, continue to add brands, and continue to get scale benefits from operating our business. I think, clearly, it's an easier story for investors to understand, to comprehend, when more and more of the revenue comes from managed and franchised.
That is happening year by year. The question is, how long till we rerate?
We continue to deliver, and we are closing the gap slowly, we need to continue to do it until we get to the Promised Land. Promised Land doesn't have to be 19 times EBITDA, by the way—very nice for the investors in the room—but certainly a lot higher than where we are at the moment.
These megatrends, and I've sort of talked about them at the beginning, I have hotels in my personal investment portfolio, and they are volatile, they're tough, hotels. Very short booked revenue.
We actually have short and long. We have most of our revenues are quite long-dated, and we have a mix between short and long.
It's a much more attractive cash flow profile. Absolutely unique, and as I said, we are competing, but we're not competing with people like us.
Most of it is about explaining the market and growing on the back of that. Our market position means that for investors, for the people that own the properties, we can provide a much better proposition: have more products, more sales people, and we create revenue much more quickly than anyone else could do.
All of these things support the growth, and this change in the way people are working overall is fuelling the growth. Now, valuation, I'll be direct about this: it is very low despite all of the dynamics that we have.
We're a mile away from Marriott, who's the best performer in terms of multiple. What we have to do is we're very clear here, everything's in our favour: huge addressable market, weak competition, we've got a good model, we're very disciplined about how we deliver on it, we just have to keep delivering and keep cutting the distance between us and the medium-term outlook we put there.
It's about just very reliable delivery, and these results give you just that. I think it will be helped that eventually a light bulb moment will happen, and people will realize that somehow this is something other than a property business.
It is about supporting workers, but it's not necessarily about doing that only with property. We have lots of other products that support people.
Covered it this morning with journalists. I said, "Look, there's some more people coming to the office."
Look, we are hedged on this. We have a significant business that's growing supporting people working from home, more than a million customers, and that one's growing.
We also have a business in office, and you can clearly see that that one's growing. It's a nuanced overall picture that we are winning in, and you can see that coming through in our results.
I just want to say once again megatrends here: CapEx to OpEx, and you will see this pretty much universally amongst companies. They sort of understand that if they don't need to own it, then they shouldn't own it.
You can see that with many other comparisons. If you look at Ashtead, tools, people rent tools, very cheap tools, $100, $200 tools, but they rent them, they don't want to buy them, even small things.
You can see car rental, fleet rental, truck rental, anything, all of these things now tend to be off the balance sheet. They tend to be rented complete with service rather than companies buying things and operating themselves.
You speak to CFOs, they are becoming clearer and clearer about this conversion. Platform working.
We have companies that do contracts with us for 25,000 people. This isn't about a small company rolling up at the front door here and saying, "I need an office.
What do you have?" We do that, by the way, but the major part of the business and a growing part of the business are enterprise customers that say, "I have 25,000 people in the United States, and I would like them to use your whole platform.
How much is it?" That is what we're delivering.
The world has become more volatile and uncertain, and that very much plays into what we're doing, whether it's geopolitics or whether it's AI, or whether it's "I'm not sure what my business is going to be." All of these things are helping us and leading to a rise in inquiries.
We have a consulting arm called Sendium, and it's very interesting to see here the level of interest from companies who are asking for consulting help to change how they support their people. It's very, very clear, very very strong increase in demand here as more and more companies seek to find a way from A to B.
They can see they can save lots of money, they like that. They can see that they want more flexibility.
The problem is making the change. That company is doing very well, and I think it gives us good visibility on the market itself.
Technology, now, that is distorting how and where people work. If you traveled on the Tube this morning, some people are working, most of them are looking at films and stuff on the Tube, on the subway.
You can do basically work from anywhere. That it's not a thing to say, "Well, I have to be in an office."
I've done interviews all the way here from TV studios to here in the car. It's quite difficult, actually, in the back of a cab, but we've done them all the way through.
Technology just makes work a different thing. Now, it's distorting, making work change.
We really provide a platform that makes that work a more productive thing, that's what we're about. I think then if you turn to AI in terms of how it's transforming what we do, we've doubled up every year now for three years our AI investments.
We were using AI before it was a thing. It wasn't called AI then, it was called robotics and automation.
For our scaled-up business, it's certainly going to change how we operate. If you look back in the results of this, you see we've kept our costs reasonably flat over the last two, three years with a lot of inflation.
Now, that is AI investments, some of it, and we're putting more in to get more scale benefits as we go forward. For us as a scaled-up operation, the benefits are much bigger, we can make the investments, get the returns.
It will speed up what we're doing. The key thing is it helps better decision making.
We have a huge amount of data. It's not always evident how to use it.
For normal people to pick up that data and use it quite hard. AI makes the data do most of the work for you, make more better decisions.
If you look at planning, if you look at accounting, if you look at lots of these things, AI tools, customer service, many of these things totally transformational. It will mean that we'll be able to do a lot more with less people ourselves.
That's already happening. All of these trends are supporting us in what we're doing, and we think they'll continue to gather strength in the future.
Partner benefits, I've really covered here, and the key thing here and the strength of what we've done and what we are doing is great endorsements from the partners that we've already signed up and we're already operating centres for. The key thing we're looking for is repeat business, how many more centres do we get from the same owners?
Are they happy with their return? That's a resounding yes.
Are we getting more institutional business? Yes, we are.
Lot more to do there, but we're getting more of that, 'cause once institutions change, pension funds, etc., then you're really onto something because they control more of the real estate stock than anyone else. That is also happening.
Overall, sustainable long-term cash flows. "Can you get me cash flow?
Can you get it quicker than the best alternative is?" We are achieving that, and owners are very happy with it.
They're, in fact, surprised in our ability and the speed of delivery here. For customers, it's here we're providing base-level services, we're adding to the services.
We've added, for example, health benefits in some countries, we've added gym benefits. If you imagine you're a company, large or small, built into your product, you have benefits for the people.
We also have added, and we're growing this globally, a full buyers group, so that you can buy all sorts of commodities on a buying platform where we're combining the strength of the buying potential of all of the customers that want to participate in buying basic commodities—paper, stuff that they need—also proving very popular. These things are not necessarily very high margin, they all make a margin, but they're all about making the offer to the company broader, more effective, and helping people, i.e.
health benefits or gym benefits, not necessarily for the company, but something the company can offer their people, done in each country. Overall, very focused on customer satisfaction and the real customer who's paying the bill, their satisfaction, and that is working.
Then as we look forward in the US, the flywheel, Charlie, myself, and the management team very focused on this. This continues to gather momentum.
We came out of '25 with strong momentum, we come into '26 strong momentum. In revenue growth, more centres, more platform, more enterprise customers, it sort of keeps on powering up.
We did invest more in growth last year, we signaled that halfway through the year. That has paid off.
We'll do more again this year, and that will continue to grow the cash flow and the shareholder returns. Charlie will talk to you more about that.
We're a network business. This flywheel is all about winning, and certainly the mix that we have, it can always be better, there's still a lot more for us to do, but we are winning, we are delivering on it.
In summary, it was a good year, '25. Tough year in many ways, but a good year.
We had a good outcome, and we certainly set ourselves up very well for '26. We're actually growing faster now, we're more capital-light than we have been before, and we're certainly starting to generate more and more cash as we go through this year.
Returning capital to shareholders, Charlie's going to talk to you more about that. We're also investing in the platform.
We're investing in growth, investing in the platform, we're not rationing cash into the business. We're doing all of that and producing enough cash to return to shareholders.
We think we've got a very good mix, and in spite of volatility or anything that's going on in the world, we're confident of delivering again in '26 and beyond. Thank you very much.
I'll hand over to Charlie.
Charlie Steel
Thanks, Mark, and thank you very much for everybody to be here today. I'll take you through the financials for 2025 and the outlook for 2026.
With our full-year results that we delivered this time last year, we set out some very clear guidance for 2025, and we made that very explicit. I'm delighted to report that we delivered those numbers in line with that guidance that we set out.
We said that we'd deliver EBITDA of $525 to $565 million, and the outturn for that was $531 million. We originally stated that we'd deliver more cash flow in 2025 than in 2024, and we revised that at the half-year to be at least $140 million, and we delivered $162 million, up 60% year on year.
We also stated that net debt would be flattish year on year, and we've come in—and we've come in around $730 million on a US GAAP basis, and that came in at $715 million. We also stated that we'd continue to delever, which is obviously a function of that net debt and the EBITDA, and that's reduced from 1.45 times to 1.35 times, which was also after returning $144 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
We had also said we'd deliver $45 million of recurring management fees, up 19 from $19 million in 2024, and we delivered that in line with the guided number. We also said that we'd sign more—open more and open more locations in 2025 than in 2024.
We opened 25% more and signed 26% more in 2025 than in 2024. Overall, I think we can summarize the year as: we guided, we delivered on that guidance as Mark said, becoming very predictable and making sure we're delivering in line with what we're saying.
For the financial year 2025, our managed and franchise business drove the system-wide revenue higher by 4% to a record $4.5 billion. This led to the highest ever US GAAP EBITDA delivery in our history, up 6% in 2025 to $531 million, on track towards our medium-term target of at least $1 billion.
Our capital-light growth continues to go from strength to strength. We signed over 1,100 new centre locations in 2025, and this is an acceleration through the year.
We opened 782 centres, over over three centres per working day during the year, a phenomenal rate of centre openings. This growth in management and franchise saw our fee income grow by 2.4 times, and we continue to expand our gross margin in the company-owned business as well.
This all came while we returned $144 million to shareholders: $14 million in dividends and $130 million in share buybacks, and we saw our leverage reduce as well. The engine of our growth in 2025 was the momentum in our management and franchise division.
We saw system revenue growth of almost 30% in the management and franchise division in 2025, and this translated into 60% fee income growth and 140% increase in recurring management fees on the managed partnerships business. We started the year with a footprint of 185,000 rooms and added 122,000 rooms across the year.
Now we have a footprint, including signed but unopened rooms, of over half a million. Importantly, and you've seen this chart before, not only we are able to sign these rooms up, but we're also able and open them, but we're also able to fill them, and they are trading in line with as we expected.
I'm very happy to report that REVPAR for these rooms is performing very much in line with expectations, and that is the case across all of the cohorts. Coming back to our footprint and pipeline, given the REVPAR experience, when our rooms are open and mature, this universe will have the potential to generate $1.8 billion of annual system revenue, and the fee income comes from that.
The recurring managed fee income we are generating comes with good visibility and very good predictability. We've given this guidance before and always met it in line.
At the end of 2024, we guided that we'd generate $45 million of managed fee income in 2025, which we did. We expect managed fee income to be $80 million in 2026 and $125 million in 2027.
Very good forward visibility in this division. As we've been clear for some time now, to head towards our billion dollars of EBITDA in the medium term, we need to keep expanding the system revenue of management and franchise, but also expand margins in company-owned.
Margins here expanded by 97 basis points in the year, and we plan to keep expanding the margins going forward towards our target of 30%. At our interim results, which we also expanded upon at the investor day in December, we laid out a clear picture as to the price investment we've been making over the last year, and why, as these discounts rolled off for new customers, blended prices at higher occupancy would be heading up and not down.
This has carried on at the start of 2026, giving us good visibility on pricing through 2026. Right now where we are, got good visibility into 2026 pricing, and hopefully this will continue.
As Mark mentioned earlier, we continue to manage our core overheads tightly. We actually saw core overheads coming down very slightly year on year.
We've made the choice to keep investing in discretionary overheads, including partnership sales managers for new centres that we spoke about at the interims, and also logistics people to ensure buildings open faster. We've also spent extra money on marketing to ensure new centres open full as quickly as possible.
As we stated at the investor day in New York City in December, we've integrated digital and professional services into management and franchise and company-owned. I'm pleased report that both businesses performed well in 2025.
Management and franchise continues to see strong top-line fee income growth, and company-owned revenue momentum trends early in 2026 gives us confidence in our revenue guidance here so far. Putting all that together for 2025 enabled us to return significant amounts to shareholders whilst still reducing leverage across the year as I've mentioned.
This shows how we bridge from $501 million of EBITDA in 2024 to $531 million in 2025. The fee income in management and franchise, margin expansion in company-owned, and a small reduction in small overheads combined with an incremental additional investment in the discretionary overheads drove that end picture.
In particular, you'll see that the increase in management and franchise fee income is really the one of the core drivers here. Total reported CapEx was up in 2025 versus 2024, but this was primarily due to two factors.
Firstly, timing differences between receiving landlord contributions and paying out the respective CapEx on managed enterprise real estate led to phasing issues. There's a difference between the way CapEx is accounted for under IFRS versus US GAAP.
IFRS is on an accrual basis, whereas US GAAP is cash flow based. Some accrued CapEx from 2024 was settled in 2025, which drove a high year-on-year CapEx outflow on a US GAAP basis.
You'll see, though, if you look at the IFRS numbers that we've reported historically, that actually these levels are about in line with the normalized levels. 2024 was a bit of a dip here on a US GAAP basis.
Maintenance CapEx is evolving as expected, and expected to be $100 million and grow with inflation going forward. We made this guidance very clear in the past.
All of these numbers with what needs to be balanced with what we're actually doing. In 2025, we opened three centres every single working day, and CapEx remains very low on historical levels, and will remain so.
The battery seems to run out on the—great. 2024 was the first full year post the pandemic of full positive earnings, and I'm pleased to report that 2025 was the second year of positive earnings in a row.
Adjusted gross profit increased by 9% to over $1 billion, driven by our system revenue growth. As I've explained earlier, we continue to invest in overheads to drive growth, and this translated into 6% growth in EBITDA to $531 million, and a small increase in operating income, which translated into flat earnings per share, but adjusted earnings per share saw significant year-over-year growth.
Cash, however, as Mark said, is our key focus, and I'm pleased to report that we generated 60% more cash available to shareholders in 2025 versus 2024. This enabled us to return $144 million to shareholders, and also continue to delever through the period.
It's worth noting that cash flow in 2025 was positively impacted by some payments originally scheduled for payment in 2025, but were actually paid during 2026. That not not withstanding, the cash outturn for the year was strong and in line with guidance.
We continue to invest in systems and finance during the year. We adopted US GAAP as our accounting standards, integrated digital and professional services into company-owned and management and franchise, and we continue to move our balance sheet structure to a longer-term footing with a new seven-year investment-grade bond that we raised in May.
Aside from only $6 million of convertible bond that was not put by investors in December, we now have no refinancing needs until 2029, and there'll also be no further changes to how we're reporting from a divisional perspective. This shows how our net debt has evolved through the year.
We started 2024 with 700—2025 with $729 million of net debt and generated significant cash flow from operations. After core costs of net maintenance CapEx, interest, and tax, it's worth pointing out that if we decided to spend zero on growth CapEx and not return any capital to shareholders, net debt would only have been $485 million.
We see huge opportunities. That would have been the wrong thing for the business to do.
Net debt after growth CapEx was $567 million, and after non-cash financing costs, the impact of FX on our debt, and our $144 capital return across dividends and buybacks, we ended net debt with $715 million over the year. Despite investments and capital returns, our net debt to EBITDA still fell during the year to 1.35 times.
Our transition to capital-light has also enabled us to return significant amounts of capital to shareholders. We were very active in the buyback into any weakness and purchased almost 50 million shares for cancellation at an average price of only 201p, a 13% discount to the share price at year end.
We have a very disciplined approach to our capital allocation. We've already announced $100 million of buybacks for 2026, following the $130 million that we completed last year.
We intend to communicate capital returns in line with how we did that during 2025. As mentioned, we actively managed the buyback last year and will continue to do that through this year.
I wanted to put this slide up just as a reminder of what we said we'd deliver at the investor day in December, and how we expect growth to continue accelerating going forwards, driven by our capital-light strategy. You'll see this slide again going forwards when we report back on how we progress against these targets.
Which brings me to the outlook for 2026 and beyond. I just want to reiterate: no change to outlook from what we said in December, no change from what we said at the Q3 results in November.
EBITDA growth is expected to be driven by revenue growth as opposed to cost reduction, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $585 million and $625 million for the year. Net debt is expected to go up very slightly in 2026, given the fall in absolute terms in 2025 when we guided that net debt would be roughly the same.
In the medium term, we still target a net—EBITDA of at least $1 billion, and remain very committed to our investment-grade credit rating. We will do that whilst continuing to return cash to shareholders in line with our capital allocation policy.
As you'll be aware, we announced $50 million of buybacks on the 31st of December, and we announced an additional $50 million this morning to take the announced program for 2026 to $100 million. Thank you very much, and with that, we'll take questions.
Michael Donnelly
Gents, thank you. It's Michael Donnelly from Investec.
Two from me. Mark, thank you for your comments on AI.
Until the market gets bored with this acronym and moves on to something else, we've kind of got to keep talking about it. Specifically, you mentioned the proprietary data that you've got from the world-leading network.
Is it true to say that you've been able to use AI tools to interrogate that proprietary data in a way that your competitors would not be able to do? Then the second question, probably for you, Charlie, is on the $30 million into the partnership sales team.
You said that's an annual cost, but if you're still in investment mode, should we think about that growing at double digits or more in line with GDP from now on? Thanks.
Mark Dixon
I would say, in all honesty here, that the best is yet to come. The results we've had thus far are to do with automation, better customer service, use of bots, better sales support, use of bots, automation of some of the accounting, the admin.
That's sort of if you sort of say, "Where are you today?" that's where we are.
Where it's going is something far beyond that, where we can make better use of the data in terms of planning, in terms of better decision making, think yield management. That is, we think, is a big upside.
We're already doing yield management, just to be clear, but we can do yield management on steroids with the quantum of stock that we have. It makes a real difference.
You don't have to have a lot of movement on there for that to be a particularly interesting area. There's a huge amount of data.
How can we use that better? That is what we're spending time doing and investing doing at the moment.
Charlie Steel
In terms of the additional investment in the partnership sales team, I think look, we've also made additional investment into marketing, and we announced this at the half-year that we saw that cost increase come through, and we're very happy about doing that, because that was leading to better outcomes going forwards. We would absolutely do that again if that makes sense to do.
What you're seeing is that we are putting more money into marketing, we are putting more money into the partnership sales team, and we're now opening one centre every three days. I think if you go back to the slides that we were showing two years ago, I think sort of most people here would have been absolutely delighted with one centre per day.
This costs money. It can't be done for free.
We have a great ability to scale, which is the reason why you see the core overheads stay flat. That's things like finance, HR, IT in the back office.
In terms of being able to get new centres open, new centres signed up, that does need marketing money and partnership sales money. Where it makes sense to deploy more expenditure there, we will do so.
Michael Donnelly
Hi,
Paul May
it's Paul May from Barclays. Got four questions, actually, but should be quite quick.
We noticed Mark's stake has increased slightly over the year. I assume that's a direct result of not participating in the share buyback.
Just wondered what are your thoughts regarding the stake moving forwards in the share buyback as we go on? Appreciate you don't give free cash flow guidance at this stage, but can you provide some color as to how much of the year-on-year EBITDA increase is expected to flow through into free cash flow?
Obviously, for '25 it was higher than EBITDA growth, but some color would be great. Management and franchise, you've got a clear EBITDA trajectory there.
What are you seeing though year to date within the company-owned and leased division? Is there any downside risk from that division into the forecasts?
Then the final one, just on the free cash flow you mentioned, there are some items that shifted into '26, which boosted '25 free cash flow. As a result, '26 gets the sort of negative impact from that.
Would you be willing for the share buyback to be slightly higher than free cash flow in '26, given you had some spare free cash flow in 2025? Thanks.
Charlie Steel
Maybe I'll take most of those, Mark, and feel free to interject. I think the first thing on Mark's stake, look, we've been really happy with the fact that Mark is our largest shareholder, and that his percentage stake has increased over the last year as you say, exactly to do with the buyback.
I think sort of there comes a point, though, where as a company, we quite like to see that stabilize. Sort of when Mark might sell into the buyback and keep the percentage exactly the same, it doesn't go up, but it equally doesn't go down.
Obviously, that's a decision for Mark on how and when he'd do that. I think the second thing is on the free cash flow guidance and the color on that.
I don't want to give an explicit number at this point in the year, given sort of it's a small number relative to the overall revenues and costs. I think it sort of goes to your third question about the fact that you'll seen sort of small numbers go from one year to the next, and that makes a bit of a difference.
We don't see any difference in 2026 from an EBITDA to cash flow conversion ratio going through the year, it's the same level of percentage. Then in terms of kind of the management and franchise trajectory and the company-owned, look, we've been very clear that one of the key underlying assumptions for 2026 is that we want to see revenue growth coming through in the company-owned.
I think we've entered 2026 in a positive way on that, and we've had some good momentum at the end of 2025 with the pricing changes. Clearly, it does require that to continue.
Given the fact that in the short term—and I mean sort of very short term, as in quarter from quarter—revenue drops through to EBITDA almost one for one on the company-owned side, that does make quite a big difference to near-term earnings outlook. Clearly, in the long term, we have the flexibility around our cost base.
We've been very good to respond to changes in that cost base and the requirements and the change in that cost base in order to preserve the margins. In the short term, you do have that sort of slight level of inflexibility.
Yes, there's a risk on the overall number both ways, by the way, up and down, right, on that company-owned revenue. I think, as I say, we've got good momentum going into that so far.
Oh, and then the free cash flow going from 25 into '26, I think what I say about the buyback overall is we're a firm believer that our shares, as Mark I think articulated very well, are very undervalued. We'd do whatever it does to make that makes sense to buy back more shares.
I'd love to buy back as many shares as we can, but the main thing that we are committed to number one is the investment-grade credit rating. In some ways, a lot of the buyback program is driven by making sure that we've got adequate headroom under our credit rating.
Paul May
Sorry, just on that last one, just to check, then if there was a situation where the buyback was slightly higher than the free cash flow, not talking materially higher, that wouldn't necessarily be an issue for one year relative to the next?
Charlie Steel
That's correct. Yeah.
Cool.
Paul May
Thank you.
Alex Smith
Alex Swift from Berenberg. Just two quick ones from me.
On the managed side, the rollout seems to be going pretty smoothly. As you're kind of opening, like you say, three new centres a day, is there a potential kind of bottleneck there?
Or is the investment in the logistics team there to kind of offset that? Then secondly, could you give a geographical distribution of those managed sites as well?
That'd be pretty helpful. Thank you.
Mark Dixon
Is there a bottleneck in the openings? No, but we have to keep working on it, because what we're doing is getting better and better at the logistics of how to do those openings.
We're very focused on lowering the cost of openings. That's very much correlated to our partners.
The better value they get, the more centres they will do, the higher their returns. We've done a lot of work on this, and that sort of is complicated by things like tariffs and shipping costs and things like that.
We've made great progress in actually reducing, you can't see it in these numbers, but actually reducing the cost of opening a centre, making it both quicker and much substantially cheaper. I think we're a third, we could get to a half cheaper than when we started for the same quality.
Second question, geographic. If you look at the growth as it stands today, I'd say we're firing on five out of 10 cylinders, if there were 10 cylinders.
We're only 50% sort of switched on. We have had breakthroughs in some countries where we had very low growth and then we have a breakthrough, where we pick up some owners that we do very well, and other people hear about it, and then it sort of mushrooms.
The job really of the growth team and the leadership of that team is to make sure that every country is switched on. If you look at a country like Germany, that sort of went from low growth to very substantial growth.
There's a whole lot of reasons for that. We're still underperforming, even with the growth numbers that we have today, we're very much underperforming.
Still strong growth in the United States, but now, for example, Latin America, very, very strong growth. That again, we've had quite a number of breakthroughs there.
I think the best on that is yet to come. Yep.
Sam Ryder
Morning. Sam Matthew from Stifel.
Two questions from me, please. Firstly, on management and franchise, it looks like the number of signings stepped up pretty markedly in Q4.
Does that just reflect the investment in the sales team? Do you think the signings can step up notably in '26?
Then secondly, on capital allocation, is M&A still part of the story? Do you still expect to make sort of bolt-ons in areas where you can add capability?
Thank you.
Mark Dixon
I think, yeah, so, yeah, investments in sales team and logistics, it's two things together. This is a scientific exercise, brand new, no one's ever done it before.
We've a great team on this, we've good leadership that are looking at why are we doing well in that country, not that country? What are the things that are blocking us?
Now, the key thing is the cost of doing it, it's CapEx. It's not only companies that want to be CapEx-light, it's the landlords, they're not awash with cash, all of them.
They certainly are very careful about how they spend it. I think it's a combination of better management, understanding the countries better, improving the management in the country, still a long way to go, and getting those logistics better and at a lower cost.
We're constantly working on that. There's not a minute we haven't really focused on that during '25.
The benefits will come through in '26, but we're still doing that, it's still a long way to go. That's sort of tick the box, and you can guarantee that we are focused on it, 'cause we know how important it is.
In terms of M&A, you should expect to see more of it this year, okay? There was quite a lot last year, all in the numbers, by the way.
A lot of this stuff's coming in under management. You're going to see a bit more M&A this year, and that will be a more important part of the growth story as we go through this year and next year.
What we're very clear about is scale, scale all the way through, scale benefits. If we can keep highly disciplined over how we are doing M&A, not grow for the sake of it, it's certainly something we'll consider, and you are going to see more of it coming through.
I don't know if you want to add anything to that, but that's—
Charlie Steel
No, that's it. Yeah.
Mark Dixon
That's it.
Steve Woolf
Hi, Steve Woolf from Deutsche Bank. Just to follow up on that M&A point, what's desirable out there in the market, given your scale versus the competition?
Is it buying up some of those competitors to keep it in sort of the company-owned fashion, or is it buying brands to go after? Given you can do so much in managed and franchising, where does the M&A sort of fit into that side of the story?
Mark Dixon
It's sort of it's not brands generally. We're not buying brands.
We are partnering with some brands, a few more concepts that we may add in. It's it's certainly But what what you're doing is, that there there is adequate synergies, let's just say, to make it attractive and us enough for out us to to sort of contemplate doing it.
It's really our scale benefit that we can apply. It sort of comes in, it will grow the company-owned attractively, but it also I think it's probably about there's a high proportion coming in under management as well, which is our obviously our preference.
It's it's helping both sides of the equation. That's it's it's very broad, but we are super focused on it.
It's not something we're we're not sort of getting we're very careful on it in that we don't we want to make sure that everything comes back to what you hear Charlie and myself saying all the way through, all about cash generation. What we are doing has to be closing the gap on the billion of EBITDA and the cash flow that comes from that.
Does it help? If it does, then we contemplate it, if it makes the right hurdles.
Operator
Many thanks, everyone. I think given the time, let's call it there.
If anyone has got any questions, please feel free to come to me, and we'll pass on to answers to press here. Thank you very much, everyone.
Charlie Steel
Thank you.
Mark Dixon
Thank you very much indeed. Thank you.
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