Operator
Welcome to Saudi Aramco's half-year 2026 results call. We will be holding a question and answer session following the presentation.
If you would like to ask a question, please press * followed by 1 on your telephone keypad at any time. I shall now hand over to Mr.
Peter Hutton to begin.
Peter Hutton
Hello, and welcome to Aramco's second quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm Peter Hutton, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to be joined today by Amin Nasser, President and CEO, and Ziad Al-Murshed, Executive Vice President and CFO.
Today, we will provide a detailed update, followed by a question and answer session. We expect the call to last around an hour.
Please refer to this cautionary statement on forward-looking information, our regulatory filings, and our website for more details. With that, I will hand the call over to Amin.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Peter. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us.
The recent quarter was one of the most challenging ever in the history of Saudi Aramco. Our resolve and resilience were tested like never before, but we have continued to overcome the challenges and continued to deliver for our shareholders.
We have demonstrated great agility and adaptability in the face of threats and attacks on our facilities, and in finding solutions and workarounds in dealing with the disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At this time, I would like to acknowledge the efforts of our employees, our contractors, and partners who represent and support the Aramco Group of companies in Saudi Arabia and around the world.
This is the third set of results we have reported since the disruption to global trade via the Strait of Hormuz. The prolonged US-Iran conflict continues to aggravate the biggest ever energy supply shock in history, removing an average of 11 million barrels per day of liquid supply.
During this time of unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, our strategy, focus, and delivery have been clear and consistent. That consistency is what you expect from Aramco.
We balanced short-term market events with a strong long-term vision. It is that steady delivery that has made us a leading global energy partner for our customers and investors.
In March, we highlighted the flexibility we have long built into our operations. We showed how effectively that flexibility is executed, from our East-West Pipeline to a diverse asset base.
In May, we reported the impact of delivering on these plans and actions from both our operations and financial results. Today, we are building further on our strategy, continuing to create and capture opportunities in our operations, having developed multiple routes to market including via the Mediterranean, and delivering strong results despite this being the first full quarter where the depth of the crisis applied throughout.
The strength of our financial is reflected in second quarter adjusted net income of $33.4 billion, up 33% compared to last year. This includes an exceptional downstream adjusted EBIT of $6.2 billion, around twice that of a year ago.
We have delivered these results while maintaining the strongest balance sheet in the industry, with gearing of 6.2% and 22.1% ROACE, which is around double the IOCs' average. It is this strength allowed us to continue returning value to our shareholders, with our Q2 base dividend up 3.5% year-on-year.
In May, we were also clear that the trade disruptions are the most serious we have ever seen in the energy market, that if the strait did not fully open by the end of that month, the impact would continue well into 2027. As we have seen, trade flows via the strait have not normalized since then, and the impacts are even more severe.
The measures taken by various industry participants, such as the use of inventories to mitigate the impact, have had short-term effects. The release of inventories have now been largely deployed, and are not only more difficult to be maintained, but now need to be rebuilt from critically low levels.
This would require call on additional and restoration of production, and that additional production also calls on access to reserves, where we had already highlighted before that the level of investment has been insufficient from many in the industry and needs to be addressed. We have talked about the advantage of taking a long-term view.
This has been demonstrated most visibly in the flexibility built into our present operations. It is also visible in the duration of our reserves, maintained consistently and at a low cost, which gives the reassurance in the long term, which we believe others find it difficult to match.
This is also a key part of our position as a leading global energy partner. Moving to the macro environment and market dynamics, we see some clear themes.
Global oil demand has remained resilient as the supply shock was masked by an estimated 9 million barrels per day of Strategic Petroleum Reserves and commercial inventory withdrawals, and around 2 million barrels per day in demand management. The unprecedented liquid supply loss has continued into Q2, and the world lost over 2.6 billion barrels of oil that was destined to a number of critical industries such as food, semiconductors, mobility, and petrochemicals.
This has been partially offset by alternative flow bypassing Hormuz, the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve by governments, and the utilization of Aramco's East-West Pipeline, which resulted in reducing the net supply loss to currently around 1.8 billion barrels. The key element of this are, first, the IEA emergency release program of 426 million barrels is coming to an end in August, and with it, the 2 million barrels per day cushion will likely come off the market.
Second, after utilizing oil on water and SPR volumes, the world tapped into an estimated 600 million barrels, reflecting 6.5 million barrels per day between May and July, of commercial inventories, the only remaining buffer in the system today. Third, within Asia, crude oil imports were reduced by around 6 million barrels per day through a combination of SPR release, drawdown from commercial refined product inventories, and demand management.
The East-West Pipeline has enabled Aramco to mitigate the impact of the disruption much more than the IEA coordinated strategic reserve release. All in all, significant drawdowns of commercial inventories have helped, but not met end-user demand.
The aggregate inventory level globally are not a proper reflection of the current physical market tightness. One needs to look into inventories by region, by product, and what is realistically available without pushing the inventory system into operational stress.
Third-party estimate only around 10% of these aggregate inventories to be effectively accessible. The rest locked up in pipeline fills, minimum tank levels, and other day-to-day operational constraints.
In fact, we have seen several systems hit operational tank bottom, such as the US crude oil stocks at Cushing, which has been at such level since mid-June. We see an apparent disconnect between future and physical market, as evident in the strong refining margins that reflect the market tightness.
Margins are expected to stay exceptionally strong throughout the second half 2026, supported by limited export availability from key regions like the Middle East, Russia, and Asia, resilient fuel demand, and persistently low product inventories. The refining system today, excluding stranded Arabian Gulf and Russian refineries that have been under attack, is stretched and is operating at near maximum utilization rates.
Currently, flows through the Strait of Hormuz are a tenth of a pre-conflict level. Energy and commodity supply chains will need months to return to the pre-conflict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as these vessels reroute or avoid being idle.
Aramco's integrated export network provides access through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor, and from the Red Sea both via Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Let me be clear: demand remains strong and has not been met by supply in the first half of this year, but rather from commercial and strategic inventories.
Global economy remains resilient, with an estimated second quarter GDP growth of 2.3%, and is expected to strengthen toward the end of the year and into 2027. Demand in the second half of the year is expected to be around 2 million barrels per day higher than the first half.
Restoring commercial inventories and strategic reserves to pre-conflict levels will materially add to calls on crude oil throughout 2027 and likely beyond. To put this into context, if the Strait of Hormuz was to open today, it would take up to 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels per day to replenish depleted inventories on top of demand.
Since the start of the conflict over 5 months ago, our response has been both rapid and focused, as we have taken many business continuity and strategic decisions to navigate the challenges. As we outlined in May, we have built a high degree of flexibility in our assets, which gives us optionality.
We continue to utilize the East-West Pipeline to secure crude flows across the network and maximize throughput and export from our west coast refineries and terminals to capture higher margins. To ensure our supply route resilience, we fully deployed our transportation fleet across land and sea, and we optimized vessel scheduling by sharply reducing turnaround times, which resulted in 20% increase in loading capacity at our terminals and a significant improvement in export capabilities.
We capitalized on our international storage capability across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In-Kingdom, multiple new hauling routes were activated, and more than 3,000 trucks were utilized to maintain the refined products' local supply.
Our unmatched, proven resilience is affirmed by our customers. This trust is because they know they can count on us no matter how challenging circumstances.
Our ability to restore assets and resume operation in a safe, optimized state was driven by both our dedicated teams and our strategic supply chain planning. Notably, in the first half, more than 90% of materials were locally sourced for asset restoration.
Without this, lead times would typically take months or up to a year. We created a network that allowed us to resume operations faster than ever before, and even 6 times faster than industry peers, as verified by third-party consultants.
With our intense focus on maintaining high reliability, enhancing flexibility, and optimizing delivery, we were able to continue expanding new crude sales outlets even during the conflict. Our actions navigating challenges demonstrated our exceptional resilience and operational agility, further reinforcing our role as a leading global energy partner in today's volatile energy landscape.
As we look ahead to the rest of 2026 and beyond, we remain concerned that the continued disruption via the Strait of Hormuz and the threats to shipping via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have a significant long-term impact on the world economy. With that, let me now hand over to Ziad to provide more details on the strength of our first half and second quarter results.
Ziad Al-Murshed
Thank you, Amin, and welcome, everyone. Amin has talked about operational resilience and how Aramco has built over decades.
This operational resilience clearly translates into financial resilience, driving robust underlying performance under very demanding conditions. We delivered industry-leading results in Q2 with adjusted net income of $33.4 billion, stable versus last quarter despite the challenges impacting the full quarter.
This is 33% higher compared to last year and driven by increases in both upstream and downstream. Upstream adjusted EBIT was up 14% year-on-year in Q2 at $50.9 billion as we utilized the flexibility that we have purposely built into our assets to optimize supply and crude oil grades delivered through our network to capture price upside.
Downstream also delivered excellent results, with adjusted EBIT in Q2 up to nearly twice the level a year ago at $6.2 billion. In fact, for the first half, overall adjusted EBIT for downstream was up 144% year-on-year to $11.7 billion.
This strong financial performance is further evidence that our integrated operating model performs robustly across volatile and challenging conditions. Looking into Q2 in more detail, our results highlight how our operational advantage and flexibility translates into exceptional returns.
We delivered 12-month rolling ROACE of 22.1%. This is higher than both last quarter and last year, even as we experienced the most severe disruption we have ever seen.
In upstream, realized prices increased 62% year-on-year to $108.1 per barrel, helped by our success in achieving a record premium of more than $10 per barrel over Brent. This enabled us to fully compensate for the effects of a lower production volume at 9.5 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, and to deliver strong adjusted EBIT versus last quarter despite the challenges over the full quarter.
In downstream, adjusted EBIT was $6.2 billion, demonstrating the benefits of our integrated operating and trading operations, the geographical diversification of our assets, and our continuous focus on asset reliability across the portfolio, which together enabled us to withstand disruptions and capture the higher margins. Q2 free cash flow excluding working capital movements was $25.9 billion, up 42% year-on-year as a result of higher prices.
The working capital movement is mainly due to a specific effect in Q2 relating to the normal price equalization mechanism with the government. Let me take a minute to explain this mechanism.
For local sales, we are compensated for differences between domestic and international prices, but with a time lag. The significant oil price increase in Q2 led to higher receivables from this compensation mechanism.
However, this has now already started reversing and will be fully settled in Q3. This is just a timing issue.
Overall, the effect of this compensation mechanism accounts for the majority of the working capital increase in Q2, which is why we are focusing on free cash flow excluding working capital for Q2. Again, this was $25.9 billion, up 42% year-on-year.
Even with this effect in Q2, our gearing at just 6.2% is exceptional and helps provide the resilience and flexibility to match the quality of our operations. Now looking at our performance of the first half as a whole, we see a significant increase in adjusted net income compared to a year ago, which reflects the scale and resilience of our business and our ability to successfully overcome challenges.
Both upstream and downstream demonstrated strong year-on-year growth, and our operating cash flow continued to be strong at $56.2 billion. Free cash flow, excluding the working capital build I explained earlier, was $60.3 billion, up more than 50% year-on-year, reflecting the strong underlying cash generation capacity of the business.
Gearing in the first half was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in the first half of 2025. This strength in our balance sheet is the first advantage we are building upon.
It is marked by our unmatched cash position at more than $60 billion at the end of Q2, our high credit rating with the lowest gearing in the sector, and our selective use of bonds, sukuk, commercial paper, and innovative financing solutions, such as general corporate use of funding from export credit agencies, to both diversify and expand our available funding sources whenever required. Our unmatched financial position gives us confidence to invest through cycles in unique opportunities that are mainly available only to us.
Despite such financial strength, we maintain our commitment to capital discipline. In the first half of the year, capital investments totaled $25.1 billion, and we maintain our guidance of $50 to $55 billion for 2026, which excludes our potential investment in Humain.
Taken together, this reinforces our objective of maximizing shareholder value, where our sustainable and progressive base dividend has grown 17% since 2022, and our $2 to $3 billion share buyback program is progressing, with our performance-linked dividend mechanism remaining in place to share upside. For the second quarter, the board has announced a base dividend of 82.1 billion riyals, equivalent to $21.9 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year.
This will be paid on the 27th of August to shareholders who own our shares on the eligibility date of the 19th of August. Before we move to Q&A, let me leave you with three key takeaways.
First, with our maximum sustainable capacity of 12 million barrels per day, we are well positioned to capture value from the higher demand outlook. Recent disruptions have underlined one critical fact: energy security is paramount and global inventory needs to be rebuilt.
Second, we have derisked our business over nearly 4 decades through a variety of strategic positions, leading to an unmatched asset portfolio. We lead in upstream volume, and we have the agility to ramp up production fast and have significant downstream optionality with multiple supply points, and our reserve position is not matched by any peer.
These advantages further enhance our capability to capture opportunities. Third, our financials underpin it all, with superior returns, the lowest gearing in the sector, a visible trajectory of cash flow growth, and world-class distributions.
This is the Aramco proposition, delivering value for our customers and for our investors even under difficult market conditions. With that, thank you for your attention.
Amin, Peter, and I are now pleased to take your questions.
Operator
To ask a question, please press * followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press * followed by 2.
When asking a question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. I shall now hand back over to Mr.
Hutton.
Peter Hutton
Thank you very much. The first of our questions comes from Iyad Ghulam of SNB Capital.
Go ahead, Iyad.
Iyad Ghulam
Assalamu alaikum. Congratulations on the strong and resilient set of results during such challenging times.
I have two questions. One is, given the major disruption in oil supplies and drawdowns from global strategic reserves, how should we think about the supply and demand dynamics in the medium term, and if the situation continues?
Also, would supply go back to normal quickly if things normalize? The second question is about the Bab el-Mandeb.
I understand the situation is very unpredictable nowadays, but how Aramco is dealing with the issue currently?
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Iyad. We said earlier that demand is resilient.
It was masked because of the interruptions by the additional supply of around 9 million barrels that came from the inventories and SPRs, the IEA and what came from Asia into commercial inventories. We strongly believe that because of the need to build additional inventory, to replenish the inventories that was consumed during the last couple of months, you are looking at an additional of 2.1 million barrels per day of additional demand just to fill the inventories and to build it to a level that I would consider insufficient at that time, because if you look at our inventory before the crisis, it was at the low end of the 5-year average.
This is before the crisis. We enter the crisis, or this conflict, with a low inventory, and we need approximately, if everything goes back to normal, 18 months of additional demand beyond normal demand of 2.1 million barrels just to refill the inventory.
Add to that, all governments now, because we're talking with different governments around the world, everybody is trying to add additional storage. They are going to build because of the need for energy security over the long term and to cater for such disruptions, you will see a significant build of additional inventory.
This is the 2.1 that you are talking about is over the next 18 months of additional demand is just to replenish depleted inventory, not to cater for the additional storage facilities that we are considering because of this disruptions, and that everybody now looking at what additional inventories, because we found certain places with very minimal inventory. Some of them in the neighborhood of million, certain countries, 2, 3, 5 million barrels of inventory, which is not adequate to cater for such disruptions.
With regard to Bab el-Mandeb, as we said, we have managed some rights to Red Sea routes very effectively for some time. It is always under our consideration.
The government is tackling this risk and has never limited our option to go through Bab el-Mandeb. We have optionality, as through multiple access routes and alternative pathways to the Mediterranean through SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal.
In addition, we have well-established contingency plan that provide us with a lot of flexibility and resilience to adapt as conditions evolve and enable us to continue to export around 5 million barrels. Bear in mind that any reduction in shipping round will create serious problem to the world, affecting not only the oil and gas sector, but many other area of global economy such as, as I highlighted earlier, agriculture, fertilizer, mobilities, semiconductor.
There is no impact on our operation on the west coast, and as I said, we have the optionality, and we continue to export 5 million barrels with that optionality. Yes,
Peter Hutton
Iyad managed to get a third question in there, which was how quickly could we restore to pre-conflict levels, our levels
Amin Nasser
of [unclear]? Oh, the production to pre-conflict level within days.
To go to maximum sustained capacity, which is 12 million barrels per day, we can bring it within 3 weeks if we are asked.
Peter Hutton
Thanks, Iyad. Next question is from Biraj Borkhataria of RBC.
Go ahead, Biraj.
Biraj Borkhataria
Hi there. Thanks for taking my question.
Again, obviously, it's extremely challenging time for the operational people, congratulations to them, and congratulations on the resilient numbers. Just the first question, in your CapEx budget for the year, you usually include a fairly sizable element for inorganic acquisitions.
I was just wondering, given the current environment, we're seeing with macro assumptions moving all over the place, is it fair to say we should expect you to slow down a little bit and be more selective on this front, because I guess it's hard to do deals with the assumptions moving around, or are you still seeing things you can execute on? Then the second question is just on your comment on the rebuild of storage.
Just anything you can highlight from your conversations with customers, because actually the pace of rebuild of these storage, both crude and products, is going to determine how strong oil demand is. Any insights you can give there would be helpful.
Thank you.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Biraj. I'll take the second part of your questions.
Ziad will talk about the CapEx. Additional storage would require significant rebuild, and it will take time to go beyond the existing inventory that was available prior to the conflict.
Everybody we're talking to now is looking at building additional storage facilities to cater for similar disruptions in the long term, because energy security is becoming a priority now when you talk about energy. As such, it will take time to build this additional storage beyond filling the existing storage facilities that were depleted.
That type of projects is being handled by commercial entities, governments, and we are in discussion to see what's available and how long it will take to rebuild this additional facilities, and how can we participate in terms of availing some of our crude for storage. Ziad?
Ziad Al-Murshed
Yeah. Biraj, on your question on external investments, we're always fiscally disciplined on these, these are proceeding as is.
The amount that you see, because we're maintaining our capital guidance still at $50 to $55 billion. There was a small amount in there.
We're maintaining that. Keep in mind, we also guided that our investment in Humain is not part of this guidance because of ongoing discussions.
The answer to your question is, we're sticking to the plan, but we're maintaining the guidance at $50 to $55 billion.
Peter Hutton
Thank you, Biraj. Next question is from Henri Patricot of UBS.
Henri, over to you.
Henri Patricot
Yes. Thank you, Peter.
Hello, everyone. Thank you for the update.
I have two questions, please, from my side. Just first one on the near-term production outlook.
There is a lot of volatility, but I was hoping you can perhaps share some comments on this 9.5 million bpd of production that we saw in the second quarter. Is that the level that you would be able to maintain in the third quarter assuming that the strait remains mostly closed as it is at the moment, although there's some room for improvement?
Then thinking a bit later on, you highlighted indeed the significant flexibility, adaptability that's been shown in the past few months, and in particular the benefit of the East-West Pipeline. Can you share more details on where you are in terms of perhaps expanding that pipeline, if there's any more potential that?
Thank you.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Henri. The 9.5 you highlighted is the total hydrocarbon, the liquid for total liquid production the second quarter is 7.6 million barrels per day.
Majority of that is crude. With regard to the East-West and our optionality, as I said, always people think that we have two routes, which is Hormuz and Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb, but we do have three routes actually: through the Mediterranean, utilizing the SUMED pipeline and the Suez Canal in terms of exporting our crude.
We are looking at actively increasing optionality right now to expand on or adding flexibility. This is currently under execution.
Our engineering team is looking at how can we not only expand what we have, but at the same time identifying other routes that we can capitalize on. This is all under work.
With regard to production, as I said, your question is, depending on the situation, we are currently through the East-West limited to the pipeline capacity. However, depends on what happened in Hormuz, we remain ready if the situation normalized in the Strait of Hormuz, bring production to pre-conflict levels, as I said, within days.
We can also bring our full maximum sustained capacity of 12 million within 3 weeks if we are asked to do that. This is intact, but it'll all depend on things normalizing in the Strait of Hormuz.
Peter Hutton
Thank you, Henri. The next question is from Matt Lofting at J.P.
Morgan. Matt?
Matt Lofting
Hello. Thank you for taking the questions, and congratulations on the strength of delivery in context of the regional backdrop.
Aramco has strong cash flow growth target to 2030. I thought that the update that you provided on some of the project increments, including the progress at Zuluf in the first half of the year, was impressive given the circumstances.
As things sort of stand today, and sort of based on what you currently see, do you believe that sort of the 2030 cash flow targets remain achievable on an underlying basis, or are there sort of specific areas whereby if the regional circumstances were to persist, that probably starts to require some adjustment? Thank you.
Ziad Al-Murshed
Thank you, Matt. We're still seeing the cash generation growth by 2030 being the same because 2030 is quite, a number of years out.
This is coming from expansions and projects that we are executing, mainly in gas and in the downstream, as well as a lot of transformation work, which is a combination of top line and cost. We're expecting same going forward for 2030.
These are associated with growth in gas production mainly, as well as downstream, both growth in top line and which is driven by volume, and reduction in cost as a result of the transformation.
Amin Nasser
Add to that, Matt, we strongly believe the demand will be stronger going forward. I highlighted the 2.1 million barrels just to refill depleted inventories that were the low end prior to the conflict.
You need to add to the demand forecast the additional storage facilities that's being looked at right now to rebuild. That would take couple of years to put these additional storage facilities online, and that would require additional demand just to refill the new additional storage facility.
Everybody is start thinking now about having a healthy SPR, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, in their countries. China did a good job, I think almost 1.2 billion barrels based on estimate of strategic reserves, and I think other countries are looking at building these facilities, but it will take time, and this is where you'll see the healthy buildup in demand going forward.
Peter Hutton
Thanks Matt. Next question comes from Shashank Lanka at Bank of America.
Go ahead, Shashank.
Shashank Lanka
Yes. Thank you very much, Peter.
Congratulations to the Aramco team on another resilient set of results. I have two questions.
The first is just around the option of going through the SUMED pipeline of the Suez Canal. How much additional time would this take versus going further south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?
That's the first question. Second question is just on income tax.
I did notice you had a pretty low taxes this quarter. I think the implied tax rate is around 43%.
Your general rate is around 49, 50%. Just wondering what drove this, and if this is something that can be sustained going forward.
Thank you.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Shashank. I'll take the first part of your question.
The additional times to go through the Suez Canal and reroute back through the Cape of Good Hope to Asia will add approximately 20 to 25 days. Ziad?
Ziad Al-Murshed
Yeah. Shashank, on the tax rate, you're absolutely right.
Actually, it's been dropping over the last two quarters, Q4 of last year was 56.1% as an effective tax rate. Q1, 45.1%, and dropped to 42.9%.
This is mainly driven by increased profitability in refining and gas, which are taxed at 20% as opposed to the oil business being taxed at 50%. The mix of the profitability is coming from the lower tax bracket businesses, and so that's what drove the effective tax rate down to 42.9%.
Peter Hutton
Thank you, Shashank. Next question is from Kim Fustier of HSBC.
Kim, over to you.
Kim Fustier
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you for taking my questions. I had two, please.
Firstly, could you talk about your ability to execute projects in Kingdom, including Jafurah, Dammam, Zuluf, and how confident you are in managing to maintain the original execution timeline? My second question is on asset status and integrity.
Over the past couple of weeks, there have been reports of hits on some Aramco assets, including the Abqaiq oil processing plant, the Jazan Refinery, and the Yanbu port. Are you able to give us an update on the status of these assets?
Thank you.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Kim. With regard to our projects, they remain all on track, and our strategy is unchanged.
We have a very effective and diversified supply chain. iktva, our In-Kingdom Total Value Add program, built almost 70% of the supply chain from within the Kingdom, and if needed, we have the ability to import equipment and material through the west coast.
Everything remains at this stage on tracks with regard to our projects. With regard to the assets integrity, we don't really comment on matter related to military and security incidents.
However, I want to assure you that our production is intact, our MSC is intact, our supply of products within the Kingdom is intact, and we did not have to go to any of our strategic reserve when it comes to products, which shows the health of our system in managing the current situation. The most important things is that we leverage multiple redundancy and infrastructure capability to overcome the situation, and the restoration capability that exist within Saudi Aramco is 6 times faster than the industry peer, as confirmed by third party.
We are able, whenever we have an attack or an incident, to isolate that facility or put it back on stream quick enough without impacting our operation. We have been successful doing that.
Don't forget that we've been attacked since 2019, and we have a proven track record in maintaining. If we are today asked to bring our production to pre-conflict level, it will only take us days.
If we are asked today to bring our production to maximum sustained capacity, we can bring it within 3 weeks. Nothing changed.
Peter Hutton
Thanks, Kim. Next question is from Alastair Syme at Citi.
Go ahead, Al. Yeah.
Alastair Syme
Thanks, Peter. If I could firstly echo the comments others have made about the agility of the organization to work as it has in this environment.
I'm very impressed. Can I ask, Amin, you talked a little bit about the sort of the third-party data of about 2 billion barrels of inventory reduction, but I think a lot of people are sort of talking about missing barrels because if you look at the public inventory data, the reduction is nowhere near as big.
I just wondered about your reflection about how to reconcile that 2 billion barrels versus the public data? Then secondly, also in your comments, you talked about a 2 million barrel a day demand reduction in the period.
I'm just wondering, from your perspective, where you think you were seeing that from your customers? Thank you.
Amin Nasser
Thank you, Alastair. As we said earlier, demand is very resilient, and when you talk about inventory numbers, since the start of the conflict, we've seen a 2.6 billion barrels reduction, how much we have interrupted.
Of course, the East-West Pipeline and SPR releases resulted in a net loss of about 1.8 billion barrels. Now don't forget that a lot of the SPR, with the exception of maybe the one in the IEA and the US, numbers are clear, is published.
A lot of countries, with regard to their SPR and how much is in it, it's not public information. Our estimate of how much was utilized from this commercial inventory so far is 600 million barrels, and this is the only remaining buffer in the system today.
Several of this system have hit operational tank bottom. When people look at inventory, there is a huge commercial inventory available in the system that is tapped on, other than strategic petroleum reserves, which is held by the government, but these are commercial inventories available on entities and companies.
Though the source you ask of the lost supply came from Kpler and Energy Intelligence when it comes to all the loss of supply. Inventory and how much is withdrawn, our estimate, as I said, is 600 that came from commercial inventories.
There is the release of the IEA of 2 million barrels a day. It's now tapering off to around half a million a day because that cannot be sustained at 2 million.
In Asia, we've seen the release of close to 6 million barrels that came from SPR and commercial inventory.
Peter Hutton
Thanks, Alastair. In fact, that's the last question that we've had on this particular call.
If there's any others that people haven't had an opportunity to ask, please contact Investor Relations. With that, I know it's a busy day all round, I'd like to thank everybody for joining the call, and to the management and their teams at this end as well.
Just a reminder, our next results will be at the beginning of November for the third quarter, and we look forward to talking to you and keeping you updated in the meantime. Thank you very much indeed.
Operator
Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's call.
You may now disconnect. Have a great rest of your day.
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