Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.

42.74
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Oct 26Next Earn

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptAugust 4, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon everyone, and welcome to the Alexandria Real Estate Equities Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode.

Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

To ask a question, you may press star and then one on a touch-tone telephone. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two.

Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Paula Schwartz with Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Paula Schwartz

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. This conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

The company's actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joel Marcus, Executive Chairman and Founder. Please go ahead, Joel.

Joel Marcus

Thank you, Paula, and welcome everybody to the Alexandria second quarter earnings call. With me today are Peter, Marc, and Hallie.

Before we start detailed comments, like to start with a quote from Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Cultivate the habit of being grateful for every good thing that comes to you and to give thanks continuously. Because all things have contributed to your advancement, you should include all things in your gratitude."

The point being, we're very grateful and most proud of our one-of-a-kind team and of our one-of-a-kind mission. Operating in a high highly regulated industry [laughter] within a rapidly changing macro environment is never easy, but we remain steadfastly focused on our path forward.

Let me share with you some key observations regarding the second quarter. Maybe a good place to start is leasing, kind of the lifeblood and the key to stabilization of operating of operating metrics, especially in the life science industry these days.

Remember, 75% of our leasing has come from our own tenants, really best-in-class a tenant roster. We're seeing steady improvement, which is good.

We're winning outsized share number of outsized number of shares of transactions, which is good. We have a very well-diversified and strong tenant base.

Our page 18 pie chart is is illustrative of that. Very strong leasing in the second quarter from our life science product, service, and device sector, really the picks, shovels, and tools of the industry.

Almost 40% of the leasing volume. Also a strong second quarter showing from our advanced technology sector in several of our submarkets with almost 30% of the leasing vo- volume.

Public biotech only about 6% as the industry is seeing substantially improving metrics. They're still decoupled from the demand on the ground, and we might have more to say about that in the Q&A.

I think the one thing that could make a difference there would be well, many things could make a difference, but I think stability and true lead- knowledgeable and expert leadership at HHS, FDA, and NIH would certainly go a long way. There's still much work to do on our leasing of our redevelopment development [cough] pipeline with only about 70,000 rentable square feet in the second quarter.

We're very keenly focused on the modest remaining 2026 rollovers that remain unresolved of about 494,000 rentable square feet. 2027 rollovers unresolved, other than those focused either tracked to leasing or tracked we have ongoing discussions of about 2.7 million.

This is mission-critical as we go forward to the last half of 2026 and into '27, of course. For third quarter, our pre-read indicates that our best knowledge at this point is about 950,000 rentable square feet of leasing projected in the third quarter, again based on our current view of that forward pipeline.

We have and will continue to meet the market. Moving from leasing to sources of capital, as we did in 2025, we are currently very comfortable that we can and will meet our total target of $2.9 billion dollars.

We're always mindful time is of the essence, but timing is never simple. We are making excellent progress and would not let some artificial timing because or be of concern at this juncture.

[cough] The demand for Alexandria's assets remains strong, and in third quarter we'll take a bit of a deep dive into the composition of the assets that have been sold or will be sold this year and the disposed NOI analysis. We are very mindful not to unduly tie our hands in any new joint venture transactions and are working hard to make sure those are successful both for capital raising and for operational efficiency.

Moving on to allocation of capital, we're laser focused on trying to reduce our CapEx of the $1.75 billion construction pipeline for this year, which is fortunately highly leased, and we're anxious to continue deliveries, and we're focused on the lease-up of vacant space and making good progress there. [cough] On the life science industry itself, I'll refer you to pre-read pages VII and VIII, 7 and 8, of the supplement regarding the core pillars and the key 2026 second quarter events.

To say it's greatly nuanced and complex would be a bit of an understatement. Again, we're still very focused on HHS, FDA, and NIH.

One other comment: we see during a an election year a lot of people advocating for Medicare for All. It's been stated by many administrations at both the executive level and the HHS level that that would be, Medicare Medicare for All would be kind of a budget buster.

It would be almost impossible to administer, given the the current administration is still tough, and it would be a giant impact on budget. It would also mean taking 2/3 of the population who are covered under private plans and moving them to a government system.

If you go to Canada or any other country that has that system, you wait in line, not a very desirable outcome. The key factors to watch for the rest of 2026 in the life science industry beyond obviously the midterms: there's obviously continuing strong innovation, which is fueling the industry.

There's been a very solid financing environment, and we're closely watching interest rates as they move around pretty significantly day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month. Sentiment we're watching closely has been generally positive.

M&A has been very very strong this year. Drug pricing and policy has been kind of a mixed bag, but the most favored nations has not derailed the profitability and the go-forward health of the industry.

We'll see where some of the IRA implementations come over the coming months and quarter. On the regulatory side, that still is a bit of a mess, and that is of of concern, although 23 products were approved year-to-date, and that is pretty well in line with past practice.

Patent cliffs continue to be a big bugaboo of the industry. Earnings and growth have been pretty positive, and China remains a big negative overhang.

Moving quickly to the balance sheet, our North Star and one that we continue to focus on and keeping strong and flexible. Marc will have a lot more to say about it, but we're confident that our year-end target leverage remains we can achieve 5.6 to 6.2, medium-term we're looking at mid-5s.

We have excellent liquidity, and we successfully are extending our $5 billion dollar line of credit to 2032. As we've said a number of times, the longest average remaining debt maturity of all S&P 500 REITs, which is good.

Marc will discuss, before I just turn it over to him in a moment, guidance and he and the team have tried to detail the multifaceted set of items impacting '26 and the fourth quarter on page 6 of the earnings release. Obviously critical to establishing a solid earnings run rate base beyond 2026 will be a strong and consistent leasing of our development and redevelopment pipeline and successful handling of the 2027 lease rolls.

We're laser focused on continuing to decrease CapEx and manage our funding cost effectively. With that, let me turn it over to Marc.

Marc Binda

Thank you, Joel. Good afternoon, everyone, this is Marc.

Congratulations to the entire Alexandria team for solid execution during the quarter. First, leasing volume for the quarter was solid and exceeded 1 million square feet.

Second, we continue to be focused on improving occupancy with 1.4 million square feet of leased space that is currently vacant and is expected to be delivered to the tenants and positively impact occupancy in November on average. Third, continued outperformance on occupancy relative to the broader markets with average outperformance across our largest three markets ranging from approximately 8% to 12% as of the end of 2Q.

Fourth, we delivered a 427,000 square foot build-to-suit to Bristol Myers at our Campus Point mega campus under a long-term lease, which will provide significant net operating income and value to our shareholders. Fifth, we remain committed to meeting our funding goals with 46% of our target for dispositions and sales of partial interests and other capital completed or pending, subject to nonrefundable deposits, signed LOIs, or sales agreements under negotiation, with another 38% in process.

Sixth, we completed an extension of our $5 billion credit facility to 2032 2032, providing tremendous access to liquidity for many years. FFO per share diluted, as adjusted, was $1.73 for 2Q 2026, and we reaffirmed the midpoint of our guidance for 2026 FFO per share diluted, as adjusted, at $6.40, while tightening the range to plus or minus 5 cents.

Leasing volume for the quarter was solid at 1,039,000 square feet. A few items to highlight here on leasing activity.

First, total volume was up 60% over the prior quarter and up 9% over the prior four-quarter historical average. Second, new leasing comprised of both leasing of our development redevelopment projects and of vacant space aggregated almost 400,000 square feet for the quarter, which was the second largest quarterly total since 2Q 2024, excluding the large big pharma build-to-suit lease we signed last year.

Then third, leasing from public biotech increased quarter-over-quarter from 0 last quarter to 5.8% of the total leasing volume, a positive sign, but still below the representative portion of our overall tenant base based upon annual rents of 21% for biotech. Regional leasing outperformance continued in the San Francisco Bay and San Diego markets, where we accounted for 2 times and 1.7 times the leasing activity compared to our market share during the quarter.

Greater Boston lab leasing was approximately in line with our market share for the quarter if we carve out a 0.5 million square foot renewal of a big pharma company in Cambridge executed by another party. Our team was still very active, executing 160,000 square foot advanced technology lease during the quarter, among others.

With respect to tenants in the market, the positive momentum continued into the second quarter with an overall quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 10%. Another positive note is that we are starting to see an increase in tenants in the 20,000 to 100,000 square foot size range, which we've defined as the middle of the demand barbell.

In the second quarter, 64% of the total requirements we're tracking in the big three markets are in that size range. Many of these tenants are public biotech companies, a segment of demand that has been lagging over the last few quarters.

Looking ahead to the next quarter, we currently project solid leasing volume for 3Q 2026 in the 950,000 square foot range. One factor to consider for context is that we have very modest lease expirations over the next two quarters with only 734,000 square feet of unleased expirations remaining for 2026.

Then on concessions, initial free rent concessions remain elevated, but came down off the peak from last quarter of 2 months per year of term to this quarter based on a trailing 12 months of 1.5 months per year of term. Occupancy at the end of 2Q 2026 was 86.9%, down 80 basis points from the prior quarter.

The key changes in occupancy for the quarter included the following three components: first, a reduction of 80 basis points driven by previously disclosed key known lease expirations, which went vacant during the quarter. Second, we reclassified 1 160,000 square foot building in our Andover mega campus from redevelopment to operating when we leased the building to an advanced technology tenant.

When we made this decision to not complete the redevelopment of the building as originally intended for laboratory and/or bio-manufacturing use, we reclassified this building back into operating, and accordingly, operating occupancy came down by 40 basis points. Importantly, we expect the lease to commence in 2Q 2027 and positively impact occupancy at that time.

Third, we had occupancy growth of 40 basis points primarily driven by the commencement of leases and leasing activity. Bolstered by solid new leasing during the quarter, we now have leased 1.4 million square feet, which is expected to commence in November 2026 on average with expected annual rental revenue of $69 million annually.

Tenants continue to recognize the importance of Alexandria's strong sponsorship, operational excellence, asset quality, location, and our mega campus model, which represents 80% of our annual rent and has led to our continued outperformance by approximately 8% to 12% across our largest three markets compared to market occupancy as of the end of 2Q. Same property net operating income was down 10.6% and 8.6% on a cash basis for 2Q 2026.

These percentage changes represent an improvement compared to the prior quarter performance of 1.3% and 3.1% on a cash basis. The overall decline for 2Q 2026 same property performance was primarily driven by a reduction in occupancy compared to the prior year.

We expect stronger same property performance in the second half of 2026, which includes the potential benefit related to a range of assets with vacancy that could potentially be sold or designated as held for sale in the second half of 2020 2026 and could be removed from the same property population. We did not make any changes to our guidance for occupancy, same property performance, or rental rate changes on lease renewals and re-leasing of space.

Despite current challenges in the life science real estate market, we continue to benefit from a high-quality tenant base with 57% of our annual rental revenue coming from investment grade or publicly traded large-cap tenants, long remaining lease terms of 7.7 years, average rent steps approaching 3% on 97% of our leases, and strong adjusted EBITDA margins of 67% for 2Q 2026. We continue to focus on the successful reduction and management of our general and administrative expenses as well.

We remain on track with our guidance range of $134 million to $154 million for 2026, which represents around a 14% savings at the midpoint compared to our 2024 benchmark, or about $24 million in annual savings. On a combined basis for 2025 and 2026, we expect G&A expense savings of around $76 million in aggregate relative to 2024.

Our trailing 12-month G&A as a percentage of net operating income through 2Q 2026 of 6.6% is less than half of the average for all S&P 500 REITs over the last three years of 14.3%. Realized gains included in FFO per share diluted, as adjusted, from our venture investments were $10.3 million for 2Q 2Q 2026, or $28.5 million for the first half of 2026.

We reiterated our guidance range for realized investment gains of $60 to $90 million for 2026. Capitalized interest for 2Q 2026 of $73.7 million was up slightly from the prior quarter, primarily driven by an increase in our weighted average interest rate on debt.

We expect average real estate basis capitalized to reach a bottom for 2026 in the fourth quarter, ranging from $3.4 billion to $4.9 billion, which is a $2.8 billion dollar reduction in basis compared to the first half of 2026. We reduced our guidance for capitalized interest by $5 million at the midpoint of our range due to anticipated earlier completion of certain construction and pre-construction milestones, primarily impacting 4Q, including a potential decline related to projects which we are evaluating business and financial strategy.

As of 2Q 2026, we have 1.4 million square feet of development and redevelopment projects under construction and expected to stabilize through 2028, which are 71% leased. In addition, we have 1.4 million square feet spread across five projects, which we are evaluating the business and financial strategy for.

Overall, the square footage in our pipeline has shrunk by 20% from the beginning of the year as we continue to execute on our plan, which includes completing our development and redevelopment projects or, in some cases, pivoting to advanced technology strategies. We continue to make progress in resolving the go-forward strategy for our five projects under evaluation.

311 Arsenal Street, located on our Arsenal on the Charles mega campus in Watertown in our Greater Boston market, is the first one. We are seeing very solid activity for this project from advanced technology users, and we executed letters of intent for approximately 109,000 square feet with multiple tenants, which increased the leased negotiating percentage for this project up to 44%.

Next, 421 Park, located in our Fenway mega campus. This is a ground-up development project intended for laboratory use, and we have important activity from an institutional user.

The outcome for this project will depend on tenant interest, and we have upcoming construction milestones to consider in early 2027. 47 40 Sylvan Road is the next one, located in Waltham.

This project will be attractive to advanced technology tenants that may find certain elements of the building attractive and may not require conversion to lab. This project has critical milestones in the second half of 2026, which we are carefully evaluating.

Then finally, 3000 Minuteman Road, which is located in our Andover mega campus. This site will be attractive to advanced technology tenants, as evidenced by the 160,000 square foot lease we executed for one of the buildings on this campus during the quarter.

For 311 Arsenal, 40 Sylvan Road, and 3000 Minuteman Road, if we complete significant advanced technology leases, we may place all or some portion of these spaces into the operating pool, which may reduce operating occupancy in the near term, but more importantly, will reduce our capital needs and generate near-term revenue upon delivery. We continue our laser focus on our sources of capital with a disciplined, multifaceted strategy, which includes dispositions, sales of partial interests, and other capital with a focus on the substantial completion of our large-scale non-core asset sale program in 2026 with a guidance midpoint of $2.9 billion and a weighted average projected completion date in September.

We continue to refine the projected sale composition ranges as we get more clarity, with land dispositions comprising 15% to 35%, non-core asset dispositions at 10% to 20%, and sales of partial interests and other capital of 50% to 70%. In addition to traditional joint ventures of core assets included in the 50% to 70% basket within our guidance, we are also evaluating other important, cost-efficient capital source alternatives that would help us achieve our desired leverage goals and allocation of capital uses, and we expect to have more information to share soon.

To be very clear on this point, our guidance does not assume the issuance of any common equity for 2026. Our team is making good progress with $1.3 billion, or 46% of our $2.9 billion dollar guidance midpoint, which is completed or pending subject to nonrefundable deposit, signed LOI, or sale agreement negotiations, and is spread across about a dozen transactions.

We have another $1.1 billion, or 38% of the midpoint of our guidance of transactions that is currently in process, and we expect to make decisions on the remaining 16% over the next few months. In connection with our disposition program, we recognized impairments of real estate of $222.5 million during the quarter, of which approximately 85% to 90% of this amount relates to either land or properties that were laboratory conversion opportunities.

The two largest impairments made up around 57% of the total balance and included the following: first, a land parcel located in northern San Diego that was acquired in the last 5 years with the intent to develop new laboratory buildings. The submarkets outside of Torrey Pines and UTC have become very oversupplied, and this land parcel is now under contract to sell to a residential developer.

Then second, an office building located in Toronto that was acquired in the last 5 years with the intent to convert to laboratory use. Biotech demand in Toronto has been greatly diminished, and this building is now under contract to sell to a user.

We have over $450 million of assets that have been designated as held for sale and are expected to be sold within the next 12 months, the majority of which were designated and had impairment charges going back to 4Q 2025. Looking forward, we have real estate assets under consideration for potential disposition either by the end of this year or in 2027 that may have estimated market values below their respective carrying values.

These assets remain as held for use assets at 2Q 2026 and remain recoverable under a probability-weighted recovery analysis, and accordingly, have not been impaired due to a variety of factors necessary to designate these types of assets as held for sale, including the lack of a final decision to proceed, as well as our current estimation that it is unlikely that we will complete these individual sales within the next 12 months. We could have impairments over the next couple of quarters if these types of assets subsequently meet the accounting requirements for held for sale designation as we refine our approach, make final decisions to proceed, obtain the necessary approvals, and commence the disposition marketing process.

On the balance sheet, we have a very strong and flexible balance sheet. Our corporate credit ratings continue to rank in the top 20% of all publicly traded U.S.

REITs. We have tremendous liquidity of $3.6 billion as of the end of the quarter, and we recently completed an agreement to extend our $5 billion unsecured senior line of credit to 2032, providing significant runway for flexibility.

We remain committed, as Joel said, to our leverage goal for 4Q 2026 of 5.6 to 6.2 times on a net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA basis. Leverage for 2Q 2026 was at 7 times on a quarterly annualized basis, and we expect this ratio to come down significantly over the next two quarters as we make progress on our capital plan.

Over the medium term, we would like to be around mid-5 times. On guidance, we tightened the range of our guidance for 2026 FFO per share diluted, as adjusted, with no changes to the midpoint of $6.40.

Our current outlook has a few moving pieces to highlight. Interest expense is expected to increase by $20 million at the midpoint, driven primarily by two factors: first, later timing on disposition and sales of partial interests, which is now expected to be September on average, which represents about a 6-week change; and then second, a reduction of capitalized interest of $5 million related to earlier completion of various milestones across several projects, primarily impacting the fourth quarter.

We now expect higher FFO per share results in 3Q 2026 caused by the later weighted average completion date on capital sources, and we expect lower FFO per share results in 4Q 2026 driven by the lower capitalized interest. We expect 4Q 2026 FFO per share diluted, as adjusted, to be on the lower end of the range of a $1.40 to a $1.50, but given the benefit in 3Q 2026 that I mentioned, there is no change to the full-year results, which remained at $6.40.

Our earnings release contains several key considerations that could have an impact on our results beyond 2026, which are highlighted on page 6. Two important takeaways for that page are as follows: first, we have 1.4 million square feet of key lease expirations in 2027 with expiring rent of $100.5 million, which are expected to have downtime ranging from 12 to 24 months on average; and second, we are laser focused on meeting the market and leasing up vacant space, and accordingly, our very preliminary estimate for construction spending for '27 ranges from $1.15 billion to $1.65 billion and is expected to heavily focus on costs necessary for lease-up of our operating properties.

The increase from our last update of around $1.25 billion is primarily attributable to higher leasing costs associated with current and anticipated leasing for our operating assets. We continue to focus on the execution of the steps for our path forward that we established at our Investor Day with 10,000 known diseases and limited cures and treatments.

The industry is in the early innings of the fight against disease, and we believe Alexandria is well primed to attract the best tenants driven by our world-class mega campuses in the best locations and operated by our seasoned team, prioritizing operational excellence in everything that we do. Now I'll turn it back to Joel.

Joel Marcus

Operator, if you could open it up for questions, please.

Operator

At this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and then one using a touch-tone telephone.

If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask that you please pick up your handset prior to pressing the keys. To withdraw your questions, you may press star and two.

Again, that is star and then one to join the question queue. We'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster.

Our first question today comes from Farrell Granath from BofA. Please go ahead with your question.

Farrell Granath

Hello, and thank you for taking my question. I first just wanted to touch on the leasing that has been done, especially for the advanced technology tenants, and thinking about that going forward as potentially a key tenant for your leasing, and how the trade-off between the lower CapEx and potentially lower stabilized yield may offset from the tenant improvements or other costs that you would have had up front for life science tenants.

Joel Marcus

Thanks, Farrell, for your question. I think it's fair to say that many of these are not traditional kind of AI office kind of tenants.

They're tenants who are looking for critical infrastructure. The lease rates will vary based on that infrastructure, how much we contribute versus how much they contribute, and obviously, many of these tenants are extremely well funded, have pretty great credit, and wish to put a lot of their own money in, there is that trade-off of lower CapEx and somewhat lower rental rates.

I don't know, Marc, do you want to make any comments generally on that?

Marc Binda

The other thing I would add to that is incremental yields are generally around the same as lab, but as you said, Farrell, the all-in yields can be lower, but certainly being able to monetize these assets by getting cash flows with a path to get cash flows with better visibility is something we're interested in doing. It was a big piece of the leasing pipeline or the leasing activity this quarter, and I think it will be of a decent size next quarter as well.

Yeah.

Joel Marcus

Maybe just thinking historically, if you go back, this generation of advanced tech tenants and technologies is quite varied and quite complicated just given the evolution of technology. Going back to the early days, we never really pitched to tech tenants, but early on, we had Google's first campus.

As we had Uber come to us quite surprisingly to build for them in Mission Bay. OpenAI has come into there.

We have by chance, but most of that has been fortunate because of excellent location of the mega campuses, and the amenitization, and what goes into those campuses as being a great place to recruit and retain talent for these companies.

Farrell Granath

My second question is on your disposition timing. I know that the weighted average disposition time only shifted a few weeks, but one, I wanted to see if you could touch on what drove that shift, and what gives you confidence on the continued close of your midpoint of the $2.9 billion?

Joel Marcus

I'll ask Peter to comment, but I think it's fair to say that, in general, much like we did last year where we closed the vast proportion of our dispositions in the fourth quarter, timing is what it is, and parties are always positioning to make sure they're doing the best job they can on diligence, protecting themselves. We do the same.

I wouldn't read anything at all whatsoever into any timing issues. Peter, I don't know if you want to make any overarching comments.

Peter M. Moglia

There's a significant amount of sales that are in the JV bucket, and we're progressing on them. One of the JVs is in its final steps, but the other one is less advanced because it's more complicated.

We thought we'd be further along by now when we talked at different investor conferences. The other thing is the non-core bucket is typically reliant on financing, and financing is available, but it is taking our buyers longer to obtain it.

That's also pushed the timeline out a bit.

Joel Marcus

Yep, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.

Hey, great.

Ronald Kamdem

My first one is just sticking on the dispositions, just thinking about from the Investor Day where you sort of announced the $2.9 billion plan, and sort of what you've seen so far, if you sort of marry the comments you made about the CapEx spending next year and the NOI or the rents that are coming out, presumably there could be more dispositions next year. I guess I'm just curious, are there any sort of lessons learned sort of in this year's experience on trying to get these dispositions through that, presumably as we flip the calendar, if you have to put in another sort of big program, that you think could sort of be helpful?

Thanks.

Joel Marcus

I don't think we have any lessons learned that we haven't learned previously. I think that our experience last year is pretty reflective, I think, as we've shared, of this year.

I think the level of interest and the momentum has been greater this year, and certainly the industry has made a much better recovery than where it was last year. I think we're on track this year, we feel good, and we'll see about next year.

We're trying to manage CapEx, we're trying to manage spend and sources. We'll give further framework, if we will, to that in the third quarter and certainly specific guidance in the fourth quarter, but I think we feel very comfortable where we are.

Ronald Kamdem

Great. Then my second question, I know the occupancy guide includes a percent or two benefit from the dispositions and so forth.

Maybe can you talk about just high level, marry the leasing with sort of the occupancy and how you're seeing for the tenant health and their access to funding? Thanks.

Joel Marcus

Maybe Marc, you want to comment, and then maybe I'll ask Hallie on tenant health overall.

Marc Binda

Sure. In terms of the occupancy guide, the big moving pieces between the end of 2Q and the end of the year, well, I should say this: at the end of 2Q, we're right around where the midpoint is for year-end occupancy.

As you think about between now and the end of the year, we've got some lease expirations that we've identified that we expect to have some downtime. That's about 450,000 feet.

Then there's a good chunk of the 1.4 million square feet of stuff that's leased that hasn't yet hit occupancy. About 60, I think 64% of that is expected to deliver by the end of this year.

Those are the two kind of offsetting items between now and the end of the year. Then obviously, we've got other lease expirations that are pretty manageable.

We've got 500,000 beyond that to deal with, as well as if there's any surprises on tenant health. I think we still feel very good about where we're going to end up on occupancy.

Hallie E. Kuhn

Great. Hallie here, happy to take the second part of the question on tenant health and general sentiment on the ground.

We continue to monitor all of our tenants individually. Just as a reminder, even irrespective of the funding environment, biotech is hard, and there's certainly are clinical failures and things that are going to happen irrespective of what the macro market looks like.

Our team across the country is incredibly diligent on getting ahead of those issues and trying to swap out tenants or find replacements before we do have an issue. One thing that I would say in terms of positive momentum on the funding side is private venture funding was very strong this past quarter, one of the strongest quarters since 2021.

IPOs have continued to pick up this year. Secondary financings have been strong as well.

We continue to see conservatism from companies in making space decisions, but I think line of sight into funding is positive, and we're seeing that in the tenants in the market.

Ronald Kamdem

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Bergey from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.

Seth Bergey

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I just kind of wanted to follow up on some of the key expirations, and what kind of increase the downtime from 6 to 24 months to 12 to 24 months?

Then I know you kind of included some of the disclosure around the 67% of early discussions and 33% marketing around the 2027 key expirations, but just what are your expectations around retention broadly for those leases?

Joel Marcus

Maybe I'll have Marc comment, maybe Peter as well, but I think the movement from 6 to 24 to 12 to 24, 6 to 18 to 12 to 24 is really done out of an abundance of conservatism and caution. Again, until we see the mainstay tenant base of public biotech really come back in a meaningful way, we just want to be cautious.

We've got other, as you saw this quarter, the picks and shovels and tools sector picked up substantially. We had good activity, as we just talked about, from advanced technology companies, which also have, by and large, longer lease terms and are both positive for both occupancy and obviously weighted average lease terms.

I think out of an abundance of caution, we just want to be careful with that, but we hope we can do better. I don't know, Marc, a couple of comments, and then Peter, any thoughts on the leasing side?

Marc Binda

Hi Seth. On the 1.4 million square feet, I think you were referring to is part of the key lease expirations that have downtime, those are things that we've identified that we don't expect to retain those existing tenants.

We do expect downtime. That 12 to 24 months does reflect both lease-up time and time to put capital in, because those are spaces that we expect on average will require some capital.

Then I know you asked also about, or I think you meant to ask more about retention broadly. The known vacates, we were somewhere in the 60% to 70% range for 2026 is what we've been modeling.

Joel Marcus

Keep in mind, if you look at page 23, Marc and his team have tried to layer on a couple of visuals regarding downtime and obviously where those tenants are going: relocation to other ARE properties or they're moving or doing something different. We've tried to add that to disclosure.

Peter, anything else,

Peter M. Moglia

or

Joel Marcus

Hallie, on leasing, guys?

Peter M. Moglia

I I will say that if you look at the 2026 key expirations bottom of page 23, 50% of that is, as we pointed out, is leased and negotiating, and that that's going really well. The other half of it, we do have activities.

You can see in the early discussions bucket, but there is a big chunk of that as well that is still leased and is just going to become available in the in the next quarter. Until the usually until the tenants move out, it's really tough to get a lot of activity going.

I I'm pretty pleased with the fact that we've got, almost half of that remaining 50% already under discussions, and then that other half, we should start seeing some activity on. Then the other thing I'd like to point out is the '27 expirations.

We we noted that 67% has early discussions. I did some analysis, and we've actually got 85% of that space has active prospects, meaning people that we've are talking to specifically about the space.

That that I think that bodes well for starting to to make good progress on that towards the later half of this year. I don't know if Hallie wants to say anything about that.

Hallie E. Kuhn

Nothing else here. You guys covered it well.

Peter M. Moglia

Okay.

Joel Marcus

Okay.

Seth Bergey

Maybe just a second one—

Joel Marcus

Yep, go ahead.

Seth Bergey

Maybe just a second one on the 10% increase in the tenants in the market. Were there any kind of main kind of food groups of leasing activity that really drove that improvement?

Peter M. Moglia

Again, this is Peter. I walked through this with Marc, and he had it in his comments, but there was a significant increase in tenants between 20,000 square feet and 100,000 square feet.

That's the middle of the barbell that we've been talking about being missing for quite a while. That's why we have a barbell.

I would say that that was a positive this quarter that we started seeing that size tenant come in. As Marc mentioned, that size tenant is typically public biotech.

If you marry it with what Hallie just talked about, with secondaries and IPOs starting to come into the market and people having line of sight on financing, I think that's why we're starting to see that tenant size, which is very welcome.

Hallie E. Kuhn

This is Hallie. I would just add, while we are seeing that demand increase, we are also seeing those sizes, the requirements, I would say more broadly across the different sectors and life science tools, which Joel mentioned, continues to be strong.

That's driven by lots of leases. We had quite a few that contributed to those numbers this quarter.

I do think public biotech is still slow and lagging compared to the other sectors, but I think broadly across all the other ones, we're seeing pretty widespread tenants in the market, which is great to see.

Peter M. Moglia

This is Peter again. I also just want to emphasize what we talked about at the investor conferences when we reveal the increases in tenants in the market.

It takes a while for this activity to land in leasing, just wanted to just give you guys a reminder. It's typically 9 to 12 months for significant activity or significant increases in tenants in the market to start showing up in leasing.

Thanks.

Joel Marcus

Next question.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

John Kim

Thanks. A couple times in this call you mentioned meeting the market on leasing, and I just wanted to get more clarity on whether that meant just being more aggressive on the face rents or TIs, or is that when you say meeting the market, that's where the demand is in terms of advanced technology or other non-biopharma tenants?

Joel Marcus

I view it as both, but Peter?

Peter M. Moglia

I was going to say exactly, it's both, but in the traditional sense of, hey, look, there's been disruption in the market, you have a choice. You can hold firm on the economics that you underwrote, or you can be flexible.

We've chosen to be flexible. I think the market in general has done a good job of keeping face rates above where they were pre-COVID rocket ship, but they have come down.

Then obviously, meeting the market also means you have to meet what the tenant is requiring today, which is much larger TI packages, if not full build-out, and free rent concessions. I'll note, as Marc mentioned on his commentary, that we think the free rent concession is starting to bottom, and we're starting to see improvement there.

We're meeting the market two ways: one, by getting to the economics that we need to get to to make the deal, and also we have lower rents, but it also means that we'll have lower capital requirements, and given the cost of capital today, that's a great trade-off.

John Kim

To sell this year, I was wondering if you could talk about either the confidence you have on that, or if those sales don't happen this year, what is plan B in terms of either other sources or delaying some of the uses to maintain your leverage?

Joel Marcus

I'll ask Peter to answer, but B in the sense that we're adjusting each and every day how we think about both saving CapEx and then raising capital to fund the necessary CapEx, especially for the well-leased pipeline, etc. It's not like we're changing plans.

We're pivoting and shifting and working every day to get through a highly nuanced set of assets, and I think we feel very, very good about where we are. Peter?

Peter M. Moglia

I referenced it in an earlier question, one of the larger transactions in that bucket is a joint venture that's just taking longer than we anticipated. That's driving that number, but that number has come down 50% from last quarter if you compare.

There is progress happening. It's not as fast as we would like.

Again, there's other things that I mentioned in answering that last question such as we've got a lot of land sales, we got a lot of non-core sales, and today's buyer for those things wants to leverage it. That financing is available, which is key, because if it wasn't, we'd have to pivot to a different solution, but it just takes a lot longer than we were expecting.

John Kim

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Paolone from JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Anthony Paolone

Thanks. On the 1.4 million square feet of vacates for next year, do you have a sense as to what the lease economics are going to look like versus prior leases, just either in face or just total net effective rents, and what those roll-ups or downs or what they may be?

Joel Marcus

I don't know, Marc, if you want to think about that comment.

Marc Binda

Tony. Look, that's not baked into this year's guidance in terms of the rent roll-downs or roll-ups, just given that those expirations are a little bit farther out.

As Peter said, we tend to get more traction as those spaces come back. If you look across the portfolio, the spot mark-to-market is, call it around 6% above market.

On average, that's kind of where we're at today, and we're seeing pressure on rents relative to expiring, on average, for this year's, that's baked into our guidance. I don't have a whole lot to add beyond that.

Anthony Paolone

Okay. Thanks.

Then just second one, in terms of the development and CIP, you have the various buckets where there's milestones that you'll evaluate. What would you need to have to continue to move forward with those outside of, say, like a pre-lease to kind of do an incremental deal?

Marc Binda

Really depends on the category. On the land, we've got pretty good visibility on the stuff in the '28 bucket.

I think you're referring to the stuff that's in the '26-'27 categories with milestones coming up. That'll really depend on opportunities to add value on those land parcels, and if we don't see the trade-off between being able to add value in the near term, particularly given where demand is, we may choose to pause on some of those things, or we may choose to flip that into the disposition program.

Land is going to be a pretty sizable piece of the overall disposition plan for this year.

Anthony Paolone

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Kammert from Evercore. Please go ahead with your question.

James Kammert

Thank you. Good afternoon.

In the capital recycling for the balance of '26, I think Peter and others on the call have mentioned there's a fair bit of JV component. Would Alexandria contemplate JV-ing an entire mega campus?

Joel Marcus

We have JVs on a number of megacampuses already, the answer would be yeah, there could be varying degrees of joint ventures, but we already have some of that historically, so that would not be a different strategy than we've had in the past. Awesome.

James Kammert

A small question. Marc, I think you mentioned at 421 Park you had an institutional user, I think as you described it.

Was that maybe for the entire 392,000 square feet or so, or is that a portion of the building?

Joel Marcus

I think we we can make no comment because we've got ongoing pretty detailed negotiations, let us sorry to do that, but let us punt on that because it's it's an important transaction.

James Kammert

Fair enough. Thank you.

Joel Marcus

Yep.

Operator

Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra from Mizuho. Please go ahead with your question.

Vikram Malhotra

Afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions.

I guess just maybe first of all, a higher level, if you can give us a sense of where do you see occupancy bottoming? You've had maybe 2 years of step-downs now.

Related to that, just I wanted to clarify, how should we think about occupancy falling or rent falling from, say, the move-outs you outlined, the 100 million of impacts, and what that means for margin? How much is the NOI hit if, say, it's $100 million of revenue loss?

Joel Marcus

Marc, do you want to respond?

Marc Binda

Sure. We're kind of right around 87% today.

We think that's right around where we'll end up by the end of this year. We've got the 1.4 million square feet that comes back to us in March, kind of on average.

It's really going to depend on how quickly we can get ahead of leasing up vacant space to backfill that. Some of the stuff we've already leased today, I think 2/3 of it lands this year and about a 1/3 of it next year, so that'll help soften some of that space coming back to us next year, but we obviously still have work to do in terms of backfilling and leasing vacant space, and that'll be largely dependent on the market.

I think we feel good that when there are opportunities where our asset can meet the size requirements and the timing requirements, we're often winning those deals. I think the times when we can't meet those timelines, etc., are the ones that may look to go elsewhere given the amount of supply that's out there.

In terms of the actual P&L impact to the 100 million, yeah, there would be OpEx that would hit the income statement in addition to the rent. That 100 million is the base rent number, Vikram, some of that will hit the P&L and you can do the math, but it really depends on the market, but it's generally property taxes and insurance that when the buildings come back to us, that's hitting the P&L.

Joel Marcus

Then remember, Peter did say that we've got some pretty interesting discussions going on on the '27 rolls that's not insignificant, so that's a good thing. Go ahead, sorry.

Vikram Malhotra

No, that's helpful. Then just two things I want to clarify, the comments you made.

I guess one in the capitalized interest guide, you talk about I guess 3% in total of capitalized G&A and OpEx. I want to make sure we're clear.

As you sell these assets and the interest piece steps down, is there an additional G&A and OpEx hit that we need to bake in as we kind of factor in these sales into 2027, meaning you would typically capitalize at whatever total cost of debt at 4%, let's say, but do we need to then tack on 3% to that?

Marc Binda

Hi Vikram. On the capitalized operating expenses, if you just look back over the 6 months, it's averaged about 2% of the basis that's been subject to capitalization.

I think that's what you're getting at. If we sell the asset, the OpEx will go away, right, because the buyer will assume those operating expenses, so that 2% shouldn't hit the P&L.

On the payroll side, like the internal payroll that generally gets capitalized to these projects that I think we've identified, it's averaged about 1% for the first half of the year, that will really depend. That is mathematically the amount that's been capitalized, but it will ultimately depend on where those folks that are working on those projects spend their time.

It's possible some of that hits the P&L, but we've got a great group of development people, and I'm pretty sure they're not going to be doing nothing, they're likely to be working on a variety of other projects. We still have a fair amount of construction tied into TI projects, etc., of fitting up space, I expect that they'll be very busy, I wouldn't expect all that to hit the P&L.

Vikram Malhotra

I can maybe follow up on that. I just wanted to make sure there's not an incremental hit to the FFO that would happen next year because of that.

Maybe just last one if I can sneak in. Would you mind just giving the ins and outs of the debt paydown as you go through the year?

Just it's a bit confusing because the commercial paper balance has gone up pretty significantly, and depending on what you're selling and then paying down debt, doesn't seem like overall debt is going down. Would you mind just giving us the ins and outs and how we should think about the debt balance at year-end '25 versus projected year-end '26?

Thanks.

Marc Binda

Sure. We had a pretty small balance on the line, or really on the commercial paper, at the beginning of this year.

I expect that to be the same case at the end of '26. I think we said we'd expect it to be under, call it $350 million or so.

The lion's share of that $1.6 billion of debt paydown should come in the way of really unsecured bonds. We had a couple of maturities, I think it was $750 million that was in the first quarter and the second quarter.

We also did the tender on top of that. We've financed some of that with new bonds, but there was a couple hundred million on top of that that was a reduction of debt.

Then, from here to the end of the year, we expect to have essentially almost all of the commercial paper that's outstanding today, close to $2 billion, we expect that to really be paid off by the end of this year with the disposition and the inflows of capital that we expect to execute on for the disposition program between now and the end of the year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rich Anderson from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead with your question.

Rich Anderson

Thanks. I'll keep it short, getting long on the call here, just one topic for me.

percent sequentially and really was just your three markets of San Diego, San Francisco, and Boston. Is that the equivalent number, the 10%?

It a

Peter M. Moglia

sequential 10% increase over last quarter.

Rich Anderson

Okay. I'm sure it was my fault, Peter, so.

And—

Hallie E. Kuhn

Rich, just to jump in there, that's just life—

Rich Anderson

you read on the third quarter. We had the overhead cap taken away for the NIH, perhaps that caused some activity in the first quarter into the second quarter.

Do you feel like it's still trending in a similar direction as we get into the back half of 2026?

Peter M. Moglia

That particular issue was a driver for the outsized growth last quarter. I didn't see anything in particular institutional that was meaningful outside of what happened last quarter, but obviously there was no pull back, and that's ultimately going to be helpful driving institutional demand.

As I mentioned in a previous answer, what we're really happy to see is just more mid-sized tenants, and as Hallie pointed out, it's kind of across the board in the types of tenants, but I will say, there are some public biotechs in there, which is nice to see.

Rich Anderson

Again, any insight into the present quarter, third quarter?

Marc Binda

As far as tenants in the market, we do the bulk accumulation of that before earnings, I don't have any visibility of how that might look next quarter. We'll talk about it next call.

Rich Anderson

Okay. Fair enough.

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Our next question comes from Julien Blouin from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.

Julien Blouin

Thank you for taking my question. If disposition timing were to slip into next year, what would be the impact on your FFO in the back half of this year?

Would the additional NOI from holding those assets longer be washed out by the additional interest expense? I think you've mentioned other cost-efficient sources of capital you're considering, not sure if you could sort of elaborate on what's being—

Joel Marcus

Let me maybe just give you one simple answer, and the answer is we don't expect them to slip into next year. I think well-managed and concluded our disposition program last year on target.

We expect that to happen this year, no further comment on that.

Julien Blouin

Got it. Then on 311 Arsenal, 40 Sylvan, and then 3000 Minuteman, I just want to make sure I'm getting this right.

Conversions to the operating pool are not currently anticipated in your capitalized basis guidance that you gave for the fourth quarter of '26, is that right? Then if those were to happen, that would sort of lead to additional capitalized interest burn-off into next year.

Marc Binda

Hi Julien, I can take that one. I kind of think of them as separate issues.

Right now our guidance does not assume at least for occupancy and same property and such, like the operating statistics, it doesn't assume that those come back into the operating pool. If that does happen, that will impact occupancy and same property, but in reality, it's just a shift in classification.

In terms of capitalized interest, our guidance does assume that some of those projects may have to pause, and that was baked into our guidance for capitalized interest.

Julien Blouin

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dylan Burzinski from Green Street. Please go ahead with your question.

to

Dylan Burzinski

talk about a third being related to leases at assets originally acquired for redevelopment. Can you sort of talk about the plan for those assets?

I assume they're no longer slated for redevelopment, but maybe if you can talk about sort of the plan there in order to get those leased up. Are they competitive in their current state?

Then as we look at the other third that you sort of label as other, is there any noticeable trend as to what is causing these move-outs? Is it sort of moving to other properties, is it downsizing, just any commentary there I think would be helpful.

Thanks.

Joel Marcus

Marc?

Marc Binda

Sure. On the 1/3 or so of the assets originally acquired for redevelopment, those are assets that we've been very interested to see if there are advanced technology type tenants interested in those buildings, and we have seen quite a bit of activity.

We had a big lease this quarter. It was 160,000 up in Andover.

That was exactly what we're talking about, something we thought we were going to convert to either lab or bio-manufacturing. Because of the nature of those assets, the ceiling heights, the ability to access power, they were very attractive to some of these other types of users, and it's an interesting swath of types of tenants that need those requirements.

We are tracking that there are a lot of tenants out there, I guess is what I would say, that interested in those things, particularly in places like Boston, and San Francisco, and also in Seattle. Those are the opportunities we're looking at for those, as well as trying to lease them as is, but less likely that we convert some of that stuff to lab unless we've got tenants in hand.

On the last third that you asked about, the other bucket, in some cases, those are assets that just may need capital. As an example, our Tech Square 200 campus, great location, great asset, but we really haven't invested money in that asset for many, many years, I think since we bought the asset back in 2006.

There's a little bit of that where there's some time that needs to go in there to upgrade those facilities before we can get tenants in there.

Dylan Burzinski

Great. Appreciate the color, Marc.

Thanks.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Joel Marcus for any closing remarks.

Joel Marcus

Okay. Thank you very much, everybody.

Wishing everybody well, and look forward to talking on the third quarter call. Thank you.

Operator

With that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending today's presentation.

You may now disconnect your lines.