Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the BRP Inc.'
s fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter results conference call. For participants who use the telephone line, it is recommended to turn off the sound on your device.
I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschênes.
Please go ahead, Mr. Deschênes.
Philippe Deschênes
Thank you, Julie. Good morning, and welcome to BRP's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Joining me this morning are Denis Le Vot, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sébastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements.
The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risk and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of these. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations section.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Denis.
Denis Le Vot
Thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.
I'm truly honored to be here today as the new CEO of BRP. Although I've only been here in my role for two months, I can see how José Boisjoli and the team contributed to building an exceptional company and move our industry forward in meaningful ways.
I am excited to lead the next chapter of this great organization, built on solid foundation and deep-rooted values. Since joining BRP, I have spent my time diving into the business, meeting our talented employees, visiting our sites, and engaging with our dealers, distributors, and partners.
Last week, I had the chance to ride our side-by-side vehicle and personal watercraft in Palm Bay, and believe me, that was quite an experience. My views will continue to evolve as I refine my understanding of the business, but so far, I am energized by the passion I've seen and the immense potential ahead of us.
It is already clear to me that BRP has a proud legacy, a culture of innovation and excellence, and a unique position as a leading powersports OEM poised for continued growth. I'm happy to share with you the solid results our team delivered, starting with a look at fiscal 2026 highlights on slide number 4.
Looking at the past year, I am impressed with how the company managed through a volatile tariff environment and challenging competitive landscape, as the other OEMs were still working through excess inventory. Despite these headwinds, we delivered financial results above our initial expectations for the year and continued prioritizing our business relationships with dealers by making great strides in rightsizing our network inventory.
Additionally, several steps have been taken to strengthen the long-term prospects of our business, such as the introduction of several new key models, the divestiture of two of our marine businesses, and the introduction of our M28 strategic plan. BRP is in a solid position heading into fiscal 2027.
Now, let's take a look at the year's financial results on slide number 5. We ended fiscal 2026 with revenues of $8.4 billion, normalized EBITDA of $1.1 billion, and normalized EPS of $5.21, all coming in above guidance.
Additionally, we generated solid free cash flow of more than $900 million, ending the year with a strong balance sheet. Turning to more operational elements, we concluded the year with a healthy network inventory position, as you can see on slide number 6.
In North America, our dealers' inventory was down 17% from a year ago and down 28% over two years. We reached optimal levels for ORV and snowmobile following a good quarter at retail, and we are progressing towards these levels for the other product lines.
We are now positioned to better align wholesale with retail in fiscal 2027 and to capture market demand when the industry returns to growth. Now, turning to our retail performance by looking at global trends on slide number 7.
We had a solid quarter, with our North American powersports retail increasing 12%, fueled by positive industry trends and market share gains in ORV and snowmobiles. Actually, we delivered a record Q4 performance in ORV in Canada.
Let's look at the other regions. Markets in EMEA remained relatively muted, with slight growth in ORV and PWC, but offset by snowmobile trends in Scandinavia due to unfavorable snow conditions.
As a result, we lagged the broader industry, given our important snowmobile business in the region. Meanwhile, our retail was up 1% in both Latin America and Asia Pacific, primarily driven by a strong end of season for PWC in these markets.
This notably led our strongest retail quarter ever in Brazil. Overall, we saw global trends continuing to improve in Q4, with industry growth in all regions.
Now, turning to slide number 8 for a look at our North American retail performance by product line. As mentioned, we had a very strong quarter, with our retail up 12% and market share gains across the portfolio.
The side-by-side industry remains healthy, up low single digits in the quarter, driven by the utility segment reflecting the growing adoption of cab units. Can-Am performed remarkably well, with retail up high single digits thanks to the success of the new Defender HD11.
For ATV, the industry was down mid-single digits, but up when excluding youth models. Can-Am significantly outpaced the industry again, with retail up low-teen percent, driven by market share gains in the high-cc segment following recent product introductions.
As for the snowmobile, the industry was up mid-teens from a weak Q4 last year. Even though we were competing against high levels of discounted and aged network inventory from other OEMs, we again outpaced the industry in the quarter.
Moreover, a few weeks ago, we launched our new Ski-Doo and Lynx lineups for the upcoming season. Once again, we are by far offering our riders and dealers the most innovation in the industry, with improved performance, comfort, and features.
With our strong retail momentum, healthy end-of-season inventory levels, and exciting new lineups, we are well positioned to further extend our leadership in the snowmobile industry. Finally, Q4 was off-season for three-wheel vehicles, personal watercraft, and pontoons.
Retail trends were softer than last year, notably due to an extended winter season. We will get a better picture of market demand when core retail season begins in late April.
Before concluding on retail, I want to further emphasize the strong impact of our new ORV models on our retail momentum on slide number 9. As I said earlier, we significantly outpaced the ORV industry in the fourth quarter, a trend that began in October when our new models were reaching dealer showrooms.
Since then, our SSV retail has been up about 10%. In fact, we have achieved our highest third and fourth quarter market share ever in utility, the largest and fastest growing side-by-side segment.
We had also announced the repricing of certain model year 2026 SSVs, and this decision is paying off so far, resulting in a market share gain of almost four points for these models in Q4. As for ATV, the revamped Outlander platform and recently introduced high-cc models led to a market share gain of almost nine points in this category.
These achievements show the importance of innovation, which has always been part of BRP's DNA and a driving force behind its continued success. On that, I turn the call over to Sébastien.
Sébastien Martel
Thank you, Denis, and welcome to your first BRP earnings call. Good morning, everyone.
Driven by robust consumer demand across our lineups and solid execution throughout the organization, we closed the year on a strong note, delivering results ahead of expectations. Looking at the numbers, revenue grew 16% to $2.5 billion, with solid double-digit growth across all product categories.
The increase was primarily driven by personal watercraft, snowmobile, and ORV shipments, a favorable product mix, and positive pricing net of sales programs. Before moving into the profitability metrics on the following slide, I want to briefly address the impairment charge recorded this quarter.
As discussed in the past, we entered the EV and light mobility markets during a period of rapid expansion, investing in these areas with a long-term mindset. Since then, adoption has slowed, and market dynamics have become more challenging.
Given the reduced outlook for returns on our investments, we recorded an impairment charge on our EV and light mobility assets during the quarter. Still, as previously mentioned, our intention remains to continue selling EV products we have already developed, while limiting the annual financial impact to $25 million.
Looking at gross profit, excluding the impact of some of the EV write-down classified as cost of sales, the gross profit was $582 million, representing a margin of 23.7%, up 380 basis points from last year. The improvement was driven by better capacity utilization, lower sales programs, and favorable pricing, partly offset by tariffs, higher warranty expense, and the return of variable compensation.
Normalized EBITDA increased 47% to $364 million, and normalized EPS more than doubled to $2.21. These results translated into robust cash generation, as shown on slide 13.
In fact, we delivered our strongest year ever, generating over $900 million of free cash flow from continuing operations. With these strong results and the proactive steps we took last fall to strengthen our debt structure, we ended the year with a solid balance sheet, including over $400 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of just 1.8 times.
Combined with our strong retail performance and solid outlook for the business, this positions us well, with the financial flexibility to continue investing in our growth, while accelerating capital returns to shareholders. As such, we announced a 16% increase to our dividend and plan to be active with buybacks, with over 2.6 million shares still authorized for repurchase under our NCIB.
Now turning to slide 14 for our outlook for guidance. We entered fiscal 2027 with strong momentum, supported by solid retail growth in Q4 and continued robust demand for our newly introduced models across the portfolio.
In addition, with our network inventory rightsizing largely behind us, we are well positioned to benefit from the improved alignment between wholesale and retail. With these factors in mind, we are on an even better trajectory than we thought we would be when we reported our Q3 results back in December, and entered fiscal 2027 positioned to deliver north of $6 of normalized EPS.
However, as events in recent weeks have increased uncertainty around the broader environment, making it more challenging to anticipate how market conditions may evolve. While we are not seeing any material impact on the demand for our products at this time, we have elected to introduce a wider than usual guidance range to reflect potential outcomes should conditions change as the year unfolds.
Consequently, looking at the different scenarios, we expect our revenues to grow between 5% and 8%, our normalized EBITDA between 6% and 16%, and our normalized EPS to end between $5.50 and $6.50. Now looking at how we expect the year to unfold on slide 15.
Retail in fiscal 2027 continues to perform well and is tracking in line with our initial plan for the year. This positions for a strong top-line growth in the first half, driven by continued market share gains and supported by shipments that are expected to be more aligned with retail following last year's significant network inventory rightsizing.
Revenue growth is expected to moderate in the second half as we lap the initial shipments of last year's significant product introduction and, as typical at this time of the year, we take a more conservative view of the snowmobile business for the upcoming season. Assuming demand continues to track with our plan and incorporating the impact of the recent increases in oil, energy, and commodity prices for the full year, we expect to deliver results in the upper half of our guidance range, with normalized EPS of $6 to $6.50, representing a 15% to 25% growth over fiscal 2026.
While we cannot predict how current events will unfold or whether they may ultimately affect our business, we recognize that they could lead to more uncertainty in the broader economy. As such, we have assessed what it could mean for the business in an alternative scenario where demand gradually softens towards a mid-single-digit industry decline later in the year.
In such a case, we expect that the impact on our first half results would be limited, as most of the planned volume is already backed by dealer orders. Any required adjustment would therefore occur primarily in the second half.
Factoring in lower volumes, higher sales programs, and the impact of lower variable compensation and alignment of overhead spend to that environment, we expect that our normalized EPS could land within the lower half of our guidance range. Still, based on what we see today across the business, most importantly with retail trends and dealer orders, we continue to track towards the upper half of the guidance range.
We are trending towards a strong first half of the year, including normalized EBITDA growth in the 40% range for Q1. All of this supports our confidence in continuing to invest in our long-term growth, while accelerating capital returns to shareholders.
On that, I will turn the call over back to Denis.
Denis Le Vot
Thank you, Sébastien. Before concluding, I would like to provide an update on our M28 strategic plan.
The team has already progressed on many key strategic initiatives, notably by gaining market share through our new ORV products, growing our North American dealer network, expanding our international business, and improving efficiency by unlocking lean value. I look forward to working on further progressing on our targets.
On the heel of a successful fiscal 2026 and fueled by our Q4 retail momentum, we are stepping into fiscal 2027 with a solid alignment and ready to deliver on our commitments. As mentioned in my introduction, I have met with many of our stakeholders since joining BRP, and they all have this in common: their passion for our products and willingness to contribute to our success.
Visiting some dealers allowed me to witness that the network is engaged and healthy, and that our efforts to improve the dealer sentiment are paying off, and this is only the beginning. I had a chance to meet with some of our design and engineering colleagues, and I am convinced that we have a strong lineup coming up and an exciting pipeline.
Everyone is looking forward to unveiling new innovation later this year and beyond. While the geopolitical environment remains uncertain, we are confident in our ability to adapt and execute on what we can control to continue outpacing our industry.
In the longer term, we aim to strengthen BRP's position as a leading global powersports OEM, drive sustained growth, and deliver lasting value for shareholders. I look forward to having the opportunity to further engage with you in the near term, and on that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.
If you'd like to withdraw your question, press star two. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.
One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins.
Please go ahead.
Benoit Poirier
Thank you very much, and good morning, and welcome on board, Denis. Obviously, very impressive engineering background in the automotive industry and in a few companies around the globe.
Could you give us your first impression and where do you see the greatest opportunities to bring value on the back of your strong experience?
Denis Le Vot
Thank you, Benoit. Thank you very much, and hello, everyone.
Very happy to join. I've been in the car industry and the auto industry for decades.
That's true, in Europe as well as in North America. Was the head of a Japanese brand in the US a few years ago.
I think that when you look at powersports, there are two folds to your question. The first one is the similarities.
There are similarities. This is a big volume industrial business, B2B2C, in which, of course, you have the same challenges: the value of the brand, relationship with the network, the quality of the product, the competitiveness of the company.
This is very, very similar, and on that one, I guess I have a huge experience. The second fold, of course, is the differences.
These are the products. Though I've been riding motorbikes all my life, you don't come to this job like you come to any job.
You have to be attracted, and I am fully attracted by the products of the company. These are great, great, great products.
These are dream machines to me. This is another part of the game which I think is very important, especially on positioning the brand, on the marketing positioning, and I'm really excited to be here.
Benoit Poirier
That's great color. Just for the follow-up question, looking at fiscal year 2027, obviously we saw the forecast, the guidance for fiscal year 2027, could you talk maybe about the assumptions from a tariff standpoint, also in terms of promotional activities, and given on what you're tracking so far in terms of market share gain, if there's room to exceed the fiscal year 2028 targets in terms of side-by-side and ATV?
Sébastien Martel
Good morning, Benoit. I'll start with the last part of your question.
I think it's too early to call out whether or not M28 targets that we will exceed it. We're certainly focused on delivering it.
As you saw, Denis's prepared remarks, he covered the accomplishments we've achieved on M28. One thing's for sure is we're happy with the reception that our products have gained in Q4 and with the retail momentum.
As I said in my prepared remarks, we're actually ahead of where we thought we would be when we talked back in December. That's a good news.
Snowmobile season went well. For the puts and takes for next year, obviously we expect EBITDA margin expansion.
That EBITDA margin expansion will come from gross margin. I'll start with the overhead and the OPEX.
We're planning for a little leverage on OPEX as we are making targeted investments in order to achieve M28 objectives, the elements that we covered during the investor meeting in terms of product and also dealer network. The margin growth is going to certainly come from the added volume now that retail is more balanced with wholesale, the lean initiatives that we have, and there's some tailwind as well coming from programs.
What we did build in our guidance, which we had not forecasted initially, was the oil barrel going up from $60 to $100. Our assumption initially was at $60, and going to $100 from a freight perspective commodity is an impact of about 60 basis points that we baked into our guidance.
Benoit Poirier
That's perfect. That's great color.
Thank you very much for the time.
Operator
Your next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead.
Robin Farley
Great, thank you. Just wanted to get more clarity around your guidance.
It sounds like you're saying that what you're seeing is actually in the top half of your EPS range and that the sort of entire bottom half would be a change from what you're seeing. I just want to clarify, you just mentioned that you already do have higher fuel price baked in to the top end of guidance, right?
In other words, current fuel price still puts you in the top end of that guidance. Then also if you could give us some color around just what's baked in for your expectation for ORV retail for this year and how much you mentioned shipping in line with retail, and then if you could help us quantify sort of the dollar amount of destocking that you're comping.
In other words, if you ship in line with retail and retail's flat, you would still be up X, just to help us. Thank you.
Sébastien Martel
Yes, on your question, we have baked in the financial impact of a higher barrel cost on our business, obviously. As I mentioned to Benoit, it's about a 60-basis-point impact.
In terms of industry expectation, we're expecting a flat industry. That's going in assumption overall for all of the powersports industry.
A slight increase, low single digit for ORV. We are expecting market share gains.
ORV, we're expecting market share gains. Snowmobile, off a good season, inventory corrected, we're expecting a solid season next year, so that's also baked in.
Where we might see a bit of gnarliness is on the market share for personal watercraft. Other OEMs have more inventory, they finished the season higher than they were last year, we might see a bit of market share loss on that front.
Denis Le Vot
As Sébastien was saying, the first half is already solid by the orders we get from our dealers. The gains of market share is already the momentum is already there because the Q4 is really outpacing the market when it comes to US, as you asked, SSV ORV, we are 12% growth already in the Q4 only.
Robin Farley
Great. Thank you.
Then just I didn't know if you could help quantify the destocking benefit to you.
Sébastien Martel
Sorry. There was many questions in your one question.
Robin Farley
I know. Sorry.
It was my multi-part
Sébastien Martel
question. The destocking impact, depending on the guidance range, we're talking let's say $350 to $450 million positive tailwind that we're getting in next year.
Robin Farley
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Sabahat Khan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey,
good morning. This is Arthur on for Saba.
I wanted to start with the EPS guidance, specifically the bottom end of the range. I guess just in terms of your outlook for the back half of the year, can you share how you ended up at the assumption behind the mid-single-digit decline outlook?
Sébastien Martel
A mid-single-digit decline outlook is probably, let's say, a 10% volume reduction in the back half of the year. So 5% to 10% for us wholesale reduction, which we think, again, today is a fair assumption.
We don't know where things will go, things will go sideways, etc. We've lived a few disruptions the last few years, whether the war in Ukraine last year, the tariff uncertainty.
Again, it's the assumption we took in a context where economic uncertainty may grow, consumers are being underpressured, interest rates do not go down or even might go up. That's the assumption we took.
Obviously, there are multiple scenarios we could have run, but we think this is a fair scenario today with what we know. Again, we've already built 60 basis points of headwind coming for higher fuel costs in our numbers.
That's helpful. Then maybe switching to inventory.
It seems like your inventory's in a good spot for the most part. Can you just comment on how you feel about your current mix?
I guess, as a follow-up, I think you mentioned you still see elevated levels of non-current inventory from competitors. Can you just talk about maybe what that looks like today compared to the past few quarters?
Sébastien Martel
As you saw on slide 6, our inventory down 17% versus last year, 28% versus two years ago. When I look at even for ORV, our inventory is down prior COVID, lower than before COVID, and our retail has actually gone up by 40%.
Again, super healthy spot. As for the competition and other OEMs, the situation has improved a lot over the last 12 to 18 months.
For ORV, we see a few smaller OEMs that still have a lot of inventory, they're going to have to work through that, but it's not as meaningful as we saw in past years. As I mentioned, for personal watercraft, some OEMs also have a bit more inventory.
Generally, we expect that environment will lead to less promotional environment, and that's why we've built a 50-basis-point tailwind coming from programs in our numbers for fiscal 2027.
Got it, that's helpful. Then maybe just on retail sales, last question for me, another good quarter of share gains.
Can you just maybe talk about the uptake of your new product offerings, and maybe kind of what your expectations are for that over the coming year?
Denis Le Vot
For sure. There's a lot of new product coming in the year, right?
What we can say is that the momentum is based on innovation, right? This is a healthy momentum that we're having, and the growth that we're posting for next year is based on that.
The Ski-Doo starting very well with the new 600 cc engine that we launched, right, the RR, which is a top-notch engine with very low inertia, very responsive. We have a very, very good order trend on the Ski-Doo for that reason, right?
We also renewed all our platforms on the utility for the Ski-Doos. Of course, the most important innovation in the way is the Defender HD11 we talked about, right, because Defender HD11 is a complete new platform, new engines.
We have a new dashboard. We have a 10-inch screen on an SSV.
This is a very big hit. More importantly, this is the biggest growing segment by far is the cab, and here we're having a success.
We can hardly produce as the demand is going, this is a very, very good position that we're having for the future. This is mostly the two that are fueling the growth for 2027.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Joe Altobello
Thanks. Hey, guys.
Good morning. Welcome, Denis.
I guess, first question for you, and it's probably a tough one because you've been in the seat for all of two months here, but what sort of changes can we expect at BRP, either strategically, or operationally, or financially?
Denis Le Vot
It's not a tough question, it's a bad question because actually I don't see the point to make changes. I'm sitting in a company which is growing 7% in revenue to $8.4 billion, as you saw, which is posting $8.9 or $9 billion revenue for next year, and also is believing hard in its M28 plan of $9.5 billion revenue two years down the road.
I don't think that it's the moment for very quick and short-term changes, right? Still, beyond our plan for 2028, there will be the longer-term plan that we have to build all together in the company.
This is going to be one of my jobs. I'm very confident in the short-term position and the business that we are running.
I can tell you that the product lineup that I've seen, that you haven't seen for the years to come, is very, very solid. This is the chance that I'm having because we have a plan, our plan is solid, and we believe in it, it gives me a little time in order to prepare with the team the next longer-term plan.
This is where potentially there could be novelties, but this will come in due time.
Joe Altobello
Got it. Very helpful.
Just to follow up on that, you mentioned the M28 targets. Glad to hear that you're backing them this morning.
If I take the high end of guidance this year on EPS of $6.50, it's quite a leap to $8. Can you remind us what's driving that largely margin expansion in 2028?
Sébastien Martel
The drive in margin expansion is going to come with the volume growth. Obviously, part of the M28 plan is gains in market share in ORV and especially in side-by-side.
With that, it's going to be fueled by dealer network expansion. As you saw, this year we finished above our target.
We have a target of opening new dealers as well in the coming year. It's a combination of volume, efficiency gain with the lean initiatives that we have, and also continuing to execute and build dealer engagement around the brand.
Joe Altobello
Got it. Can I sneak in one more on tariffs?
I think somebody asked this earlier and I'm not sure we got a number, but what was the incremental tariff in 2026 and what's the expected tariff in 2027?
Sébastien Martel
The expectation is a flat year-over-year tariff assumption, we did not build anything coming out of the recent Supreme Court ruling in terms of saving. We have a $90 million impact built in our guidance for this year, and it was also ballpark $90 million as well last year, a flattish tariff impact.
Joe Altobello
Got it. Perfect.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Mark Petrie
Good morning. I wanted to ask, actually, you just touched on it, Seb, but on the dealer network growth, as you noted, you added a little bit more, or a few more, than planned for fiscal 2026.
I think the plan was 40 for fiscal 2027. Just update that, and then I'm curious just to hear, anecdotally, what sort of reaction you're hearing from your existing dealers, and then any color you can add just with regards to sort of where those dealers are going and a sense of, yeah, sort of the geographic opportunities.
Denis Le Vot
Maybe I take this one. We grew in North America, mainly in the US, by 36 dealers this year, right?
Of course, you can imagine with the momentum that we're having on our products, the growth that we're having, this movement is partially natural, if I may say, right? We are attractive to dealers.
As I said before, the dealer sentiment is increasing and we work on that. Going forward, as Seb just said, the biggest potential we're having is still in the ORV in North America, and especially in the US.
The momentum is here, we said, right, with the HD11, with the 12% growth in the Q4. This is something that we are hardly working on.
I would say that, apart from this, we are also growing in Brazil, we are also growing in other zones of the world where we can also expand the size of our dealerships.
Sébastien Martel
To your last question, in terms of dealer feedback, in some states in the US, we are underpenetrated. We haven't expanded our dealer network in the last five, six years, and so we were overdue to do it.
Most of the dealers that we open are actually existing dealers that decide to open a new rooftop either by acquiring a dealer and bringing in the brand or adding a rooftop. Given this underpenetration, we're not seeing a lot of friction from the existing dealer base.
Mark Petrie
Thanks. Then I just wanted to follow up and just to sort of clarify, you aren't seeing any reaction from consumers or dealers in the last month or so as macro uncertainties have elevated, or how are those sort of conversations with the dealers gone or evolved in that timeframe?
Denis Le Vot
No, the inventory being low and the momentum being high, we cannot say today that we have a reaction by our dealers on that one. On the contrary, we are manufacturing as quickly as we can.
From the client standpoint, remember what powersports is, right? Our clients are rather wealthy households.
We are above $150,000 a year, about in the north of that to $170-something thousand dollars per year. There is probably a distance between what's happening short term and what the reaction of the market will be.
That's why, with the team, we decided to have this confirming the first half of the year and being cautious on the second half of the year in our guidance.
Mark Petrie
Yep, fair enough. Okay.
I appreciate the comments. Welcome, Denis, and all the best.
Denis Le Vot
Thanks.
Operator
Your next question comes from Anthony Bonadio from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Anthony Bonadio
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions.
I wanted to start out with your Lean Value initiative. I think you guys had another $200 million to go from the original $350 million when you presented to us in October.
Can you just talk about how much benefit you're expecting in fiscal 2027 and maybe how you're thinking about the level of flow-through there versus reinvestment at this point?
Sébastien Martel
Obviously it's a big priority of the team to drive lean. We saw we delivered $150 million last year.
The expectation this year is 100 basis points value coming from this Lean initiative. That's what's baked into the guidance.
Obviously, we are facing inflation, as we do every year, and the expectation is that pricing will offset inflationary costs that we see. Globally, I'm happy with how we're tracking, what we're driving, and, again, this year if we deliver the 100 basis points will make delivering the M28 objectives certainly achievable for next year.
Anthony Bonadio
Got it, that's helpful. Then just a follow-up question on tariffs.
I know there's sort of a refund request process underway. Can you just talk about maybe how you're thinking about getting any of that money back, and just any thoughts on the timeline at this point?
Sébastien Martel
Obviously, we'd like to get the money as quick as possible, but we're still monitoring. We're going to see how the process is and the likelihood of capturing it.
I'm not a big fan of spending money on lawyers if we're not able to get that money, but obviously we won't leave any money on the table. Once the process is clearly established and the certainty is there, we will obviously file for refunds.
Denis Le Vot
It's starting now.
Sébastien Martel
Yeah. We haven't baked that in our guidance, obviously.
Anthony Bonadio
Got it. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator
Your next question comes from Martin Landry from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Martin Landry
Hi, good morning, guys. I was wondering if there's a correlation between industry demand and oil prices.
Have you looked at how the industry behaved in past periods of oil shocks and just trying to understand a little bit if there's any at all correlations? I understand that so far you haven't seen any impact on demand, but it'd be great to have a little bit more color on if there's any correlation between oil prices and industry demand.
Sébastien Martel
Fair question, Martin. Obviously, when we look to the last time we saw oil prices this high was when the Ukraine war started and we did not see an impact on demand.
It's all a question of where the barrel goes, how long does it stay there, and what's the impact on the overall economy. I think that's the biggest factor.
There's a question of the nature, how big it is, the extent, how long it lasts, and which market is being more impacted. That's why we've preferred this morning to issue a kind of a wider guidance range and provide a kind of a potential downside scenario for the back half of the year.
Martin Landry
That's fair. In light of that, Brent has gone up a lot more than WTI.
Was wondering, you're talking about your guidance assuming flat industry demand. Can you break that down between regions, just trying to see what assumptions you've used for North America and then what assumptions you've used for EMEA, LatAm, and Asia-Pacific, if possible?
Sébastien Martel
Again, I think we do look at it more from a macro level. Our volumes in the Middle East are quite low, less than 1%.
Obviously we were more pessimistic there, but generally, given that all consumers can be impacted from higher oil prices, from inflation, from interest rates, and given the affluence of our customers is pretty much standard around the world, we decided to apply the similar assumptions globally.
Denis Le Vot
Which would still permit growth. Don't misunderstand, because last year it was about snow for Europe, hopefully snow will be here this season.
We outpaced the market even if they are flattish in Latin America and Asia, and as we said already during the call, our growth in North America will mostly be the market share in the ORV in the US, so.
Martin Landry
That's helpful, and, Denis, welcome.
Denis Le Vot
Thanks, Martin.
Operator
Your next question comes from Xian Siew from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Xian Siew
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question.
I wanted to ask first about the first quarter. You talked about EBITDA being up 40%.
Can you maybe give us a little bit more in terms of the underlying assumptions for the quarter in terms of revenue? It does feel like you have kind of a lot more visibility into 1Q.
Just curious on some more guidance on that.
Sébastien Martel
Certainly. Last year, you might recall that it was a quarter where we undershipped because of the inventory depletions, especially on personal watercraft.
It's a quarter where we recorded as well provision related to snowmobile, as it was a tough snowmobile season. We could see revenues grow quite sizeably, obviously to drive this big growth in EBITDA.
Also, on year-round, we'll be seeing increases as well in terms of overall revenue growth coming from the HD11, the side-by-side, and also ORV. Ballpark, you could see a $300 million revenue growth in the quarter, and that obviously is trickling down to solid EBITDA and EPS.
Xian Siew
Great. Then I wanted to ask about the utility segment.
Obviously, you guys are making a lot of progress, and the new platform is quite impressive. Just kind of wondering, are the share gains, do you think it's from new customers, existing customers kind of trading up, maybe customers who entered the industry, I don't know, in 2020 and are now kind of looking to upgrade their product, or I'm just curious about kind of the customer base that you are attracting and if you're kind of seeing a replacement cycle in utility.
Thanks.
Denis Le Vot
We have both, actually, because that's true we are growing in the utility, which means that we are bringing more people, let's say conquests from the market, but maybe we are on the rec part of the segment. As a global figure, I would tell you that we are bringing 230,000 new people to our family every year, right?
We are really on a dynamic of growing our market share and growing our base of clients, we are attracting people. The offer coming to utility that we're having again on the HD11 is really a hit, right, by the vehicle, by the new three-cylinder engine we're having.
The positioning of the vehicle makes it a complete hit on the subsegments of the utility, and we are really producing full speed on that one.
Xian Siew
Great. Thanks, and good luck.
Denis Le Vot
Thanks.
Operator
Your next question comes from Luke Hannan from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Luke Hannan
Thanks. Good morning, and welcome, Denis.
Seb, I wanted to follow up. You mentioned as far as what you're baking in the guidance right now, I think you had said a 50-basis-point tailwind from sales programs, assuming you stay within the top half of the guidance range there.
What would be implied for you then to be at the lower end of the guidance range? Would you assume sort of no tailwinds from sales programs or would there be a headwind there?
Sébastien Martel
The lower end of the guidance, obviously it means a tougher macro, more competitiveness as well, more promotional environment. Certainly, we would lose that tailwind of 50 basis points coming from programs, and I have a favorable impact at the top end of the guidance coming from volume and mix of about 40 basis points.
I'd probably lose a big part of that as well.
Luke Hannan
Thanks. Then I want to follow up also with Telwater, and basically just where things stand as of today, and when we might expect to hear a little more on that.
Sébastien Martel
As you probably saw, the Telwater business is still classified as a discontinued operation, so that means that it's still available for sale. It is a great business, great management team is well running the operations there, probably revenues slightly about the $100 million range, with EBITDA margin potential in the low teens.
Good business. We're not in a rush to sell it, obviously we're in the market.
If there are buyers that are interested, they'll approach us, but that's where we stand today. Yeah.
Luke Hannan
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Tristan Thomas-Martin
Hey, good morning, and, Denis, looking forward to working with you. Just a question on the HD11 production kind of ramp.
I think you said you're producing full speed. Does that mean you're at 100% of where you want to be or is that still ramping?
Denis Le Vot
No, no. We are 100% of where we wanted to be.
The ramp-up is totally finished and we are at the right level of production right now. Now, I just mentioned that because this is one of the product which is a real hit on the market, and it's a good thing that most of the parts of the factory are working three shifts on this vehicle.
Tristan Thomas-Martin
Great. Then just curious, in times of elevated oil and gas prices, have you seen increased utility demand in those regions?
Thanks.
Sébastien Martel
I can't say there's a high correlation. Obviously, if there were to be a slowdown, we would expect less of a slowdown in utility because of the novelty of the HD11.
There's obviously impacts on the ag market as well, on construction industry, etc., coming from high oil prices, it's difficult to call a shot as to what the actual outcome.
Denis Le Vot
That would be the global economy more,
Tristan Thomas-Martin
yeah. Got it.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jaime Katz from Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Jaime Katz
Hi, good morning. We haven't heard too much about demand trends on premium or whether you guys have seen any sort of value-seeking behavior.
I guess if you have any color on whether attachment rates are staying consistent or if there has been any value-seeking behavior, that would be really helpful to hear about.
Sébastien Martel
Sorry, Jaime, we lost you. Not sure if you're still there.
Jaime Katz
I'm sorry. Can you hear me?
Sébastien Martel
Operator, maybe we go to the next question and we bring back Jaime later?
Operator
I'm able to hear Jaime.
Sébastien Martel
Operator?
Jaime Katz
Can you guys hear me?
Operator
Hi there.
Jaime Katz
Hi. You can hear me, but they can't.
Operator
Correct. Yes, this is the operator.
We experience some technical difficulty. Just one moment, please.
Yep.
Sébastien Martel
Operator, we can hear you now. Oh,
Operator
perfect. Are you able to hear Jaime also?
Jaime Katz
Can you guys hear me?
Sébastien Martel
Yeah.
Denis Le Vot
It works.
Jaime Katz
Awesome.
Operator
Amazing. Sorry.
Jaime Katz
I guess I was interested in hearing more about demand trends given your tilt to premium, whether you guys have seen any value-seeking behavior via things like have attachment rates stayed the same or is there anything that is changing given sort of the increasing uncertainty in the macro economic environment?
Sébastien Martel
We haven't seen any changes. The trend has been towards more the affluent customer in the last let's say 12 to 18 months, and that trend continues.
BRP is obviously, as you well know, positioned more towards the higher end. That consumer is I guess more isolated from inflationary pressures, high interest rates, etc.
Even that kind of shields us a bit from potential slowdown if it were to happen. Nonetheless, we monitor overall retail trends continuously to make sure that we understand where the trend is going towards.
Jaime Katz
I guess on that note, has there been any difference in mix in financed versus cash purchases?
Sébastien Martel
No, generally we still see about 30% of the retail financing going through our dedicated partners. FICO scores remain high.
Haven't seen any changes between this quarter and any previous quarters.
Jaime Katz
Great. Helpful.
Thank you, guys, so much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank. Please go ahead.
Cameron Doerksen
Thanks. Good morning.
A question on free cash flow. You had a very strong year in fiscal 2026.
There was a fairly nice tailwind from working capital. Just wondering what your expectations here are for fiscal 2027 on free cash flow and what we should expect from the working capital.
Sébastien Martel
Depends on where we land on the guidance, but we're expecting another strong year next year on free cash flow, maybe in the range of let's say $750 to $800 million. CapEx in the $400 million range, as you saw.
Another good year next year. Okay.
Cameron Doerksen
In that context, looks like you're going to continue to build cash on the balance sheet, obviously you've announced the dividend increase this morning, but I guess where are the capital allocation priorities here? The CapEx is fairly stable, but just wondering what your expectation is here for capital deployment.
Sébastien Martel
We've strengthened further the balance sheet last year with debt refund and debt maturity extension. We're obviously in fact a very good position.
We still have 2.6 million shares to repurchase under the NCIB, and our intention is to be active on that front.
Denis Le Vot
As I said before, Denis speaking, and this gives us a solid ground to prepare the next plan that we will be preparing during the year.
Cameron Doerksen
Absolutely. No, it's a good position to be in.
Thanks very much.
Operator
Your next question comes from Alice Wycklendt from Baird. Please go ahead.
Alice Wycklendt
Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions.
Wanted to touch in a little more detail on the utility side-by-side segment and particularly that cab category that you called out. Maybe just provide a little more detail on the impact that that's having and how long you think momentum can be sustained in that product category.
Sébastien Martel
It's a trend we've seen over the last few years and we've invested, one, in capacity because it's different to build a cab unit than a non-cab unit in the plant. We have invested in capacity.
The new Defender platform was designed around it being a cab unit. That specifically designed purpose.
What we're seeing is that consumers are seeking automotive features more and more in their vehicles. Obviously, an enclosed space, heating, air conditioning, connectivity.
That's what we're offering. Now the HD11 was the first model on the new platform, and obviously we will be introducing other models in the HD10, HD8 in the coming years.
That obviously is going to increase the addressable market that we have, we expect continued growth on the utility segment for the next few years.
Alice Wycklendt
Thanks, that's helpful. Then maybe just checking the box on guidance, what kind of interest rate assumptions are embedded in your outlook?
Sébastien Martel
We've assumed flat interest rate compared to this year. No changes in Federal Reserve rates.
Alice Wycklendt
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Catherine Sung from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Catherine Sung
Just a follow-up on the margin guidance, should the EV rightsizing be a benefit to the margin outlook?
Sébastien Martel
It is a benefit. Last year we were investing in the launching of the two-wheel product.
When you look at the overall EBITDA margin growth that we're planning this year compared to last year, yes, EV is a tailwind of about 50 basis points, which is going to be offset by investments that we are making on the M28 plan, i.e., R&D. Product lineup, despite having a very fresh lineup, we're going to continue investing, and also on the sales organization and network organization as well.
We're expecting no operational leverage coming from OPEX investments this year versus last year. Tailwind, but compensated by other investments.
Catherine Sung
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from Gerrick Johnson from Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
Gerrick Johnson
Good morning. Thank you.
Denis, welcome. Maybe a finer point on the oil impact on costs.
Sébastien, can you remind us the percent of cost of goods sold that shipping would be and then also resins? Then how far are those contracted out?
How locked in are you on those prices?
Sébastien Martel
From a commodity point of view, we do have long-term agreements with our suppliers, and so we are pretty much hedged. Obviously freight costs, probably won't go in too much detail for competitive reason, but it is an important part of our business.
As I mentioned, going from 60 bucks to 100 bucks per barrel is a 60-basis-point impact on our business, Gerrick.
Gerrick Johnson
Okay. You're going to make us do the math.
That's fine. Hey, on utility
Sébastien Martel
Given your back, I'll have you work a bit there. Nice to hear your voice.
Gerrick Johnson
Thanks. Hey, on utility, back on that topic.
Are your dealers seeing any sort of impact or increase in demand for utility from businesses, farmers, ranchers, etc., owing to the reinstatement of bonus depreciation 100% in the US?
Sébastien Martel
Certainly that has been a driver for small businesses as well, and not just we'll call it the commercial business. We also have commercial programs in place to drive awareness on that consumer group.
Yes, we are seeing a benefit coming from we'll call it the commercial business. Is it 100% driven by the accelerated depreciation?
I don't know, but certainly it's an area that we focused on.
Gerrick Johnson
Fantastic. Thank you very much.
Sébastien Martel
Thank you, Gerrick. Welcome back.
Operator
Your next question comes from Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Goldman
Hey, good morning, team, and thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been asked, but just maybe to put a finer point on it, the walk to margin expansion, gross margin expansion year on year, can you remind me of the drivers there?
There's a tailwind from lower promo, freight headwind of 60 bps, and a volume mix tailwind of 40 bps. Is that right?
Sébastien Martel
Let me give you the EBITDA margin bridge. OPEX, stable year over year as a percentage.
Volume and mix, a tailwind of 40 bps. Sales program, 50 bps.
Pricing net of inflation, that's a wash. Lean cost improvements, 100 bps.
Overhead investments in the gross margin, about 40 bps negative. That brings us to 150 bps, and then the recent events where we talked about oil prices being higher is 60 bps.
At the top end of the guidance range, we're looking at a number just shy of 14% EBITDA margin, and at the lower end of the guidance, we're about just north of 13%.
Jonathan Goldman
That's helpful. Then maybe another one on the competitive environment.
I know you've baked in some conservatism into the guide, kind of a wide range of outcomes. Have you seen any other competitors maybe move quicker to try and respond to consumer anxiety and kind of lower prices to take some share ahead of any sort of headwinds?
Sébastien Martel
No, we haven't seen anything. Given I think the big plus we have as an industry is that everyone's been diligent in reducing inventories over the last 18 months, and so I think it positions everyone and the industry in a good position to face a potential downside if it were to happen.
Then
Jonathan Goldman
I guess related to that last one, on the industry inventory, could you give us an update on where we are versus current and non-current and maybe obviously differs by product line?
Sébastien Martel
I did share a bit of comments earlier, but snowmobile, we're in a decent shape. Obviously, winter has decided to hang around a bit longer than we all would like, and obviously that helps on the snowmobile side.
Personal watercraft, some OEMs have a bit more non-current inventory, and so that's going to probably hurt our market share for the next season. Generally, aside from a few small OEMs, the overall ORV inventory is in good shape.
Jonathan Goldman
That's good color. I'll get back in queue.
Thanks.
Sébastien Martel
Thank you.
Operator
There are no more questions. I will turn the call back over to Mr.
Deschênes to close the meeting.
Philippe Deschênes
Thank you, Julie. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP.
We look forward to speaking with you again on May 28 for our first quarter conference call. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Thank you.
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