PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (The)

PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (The)

200.00
EUR
+1.00
(+0.50%)
16.83EPS
13.48P/E
86.28BMarket Cap
Jan 15Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 15, 2026

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the PNC Financial Services Group Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed into question queue at any time by pressing *1 on your telephone keypad.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press *0 on your telephone keypad.

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Bryan Gill, Executive Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Bryan, please go ahead.

Bryan Gill

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call for The PNC Financial Services Group. I am Bryan Gill, Director of Investor Relations for PNC, and participating on this call are PNC's Chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak; and Rob Reilly, Executive Vice President and CFO.

Today's presentation contains forward-looking information. Cautionary statements about this information, as well as reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, are included in today's earnings release materials, as well as our SEC filings and other investor materials.

These are all available on our corporate website, pnc.com, under Investor Relations. These statements speak only as of October 15th, 2026, and PNC undertakes no obligation to update them.

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Bill.

Bill Demchak

Thank you, Bryan, and good morning, everyone. PNC delivered another strong quarter, reflecting the consistent execution of our strategy and the strength of our franchise.

As you saw, we generated $2.1 billion of net income, or $5.09 per diluted share, as adjusted, while delivering a return on tangible common equity of more than 18%. Rob's going to take you through the financial results in more detail in a second, but I wanted to start off by highlighting the substantial client momentum we've been experiencing all year, which has continued through the third quarter.

All of our businesses are experiencing robust growth, in part driven by the high growth rates of our expansion markets and most recently, the successful conversion of First Bank. In corporate and institutional banking, our national platform continues to generate impressive growth.

Expansion markets have added approximately 500 new client relationships year-to-date, contributing materially to a 5% average C&I loan growth during the quarter and 17% growth year-over-year. Beyond loans, capital markets fees are up 40% year-to-date, and treasury management revenue is up 8%.

In retail banking, we continue to grow clients organically, adding 215,000 net new checking accounts so far in 2026, with total accounts up 2% year-over-year, including 6% growth in our southwest markets. We continue to deepen relationships, with credit card balances up 12% and brokerage assets up 9% year-over-year.

At the same time, we continue to invest in capabilities to enhance our franchise, with the introduction of both a new mobile app and total rewards program, as well as our continued branch expansion. Asset management fees are up approximately 10% year-to-date, and assets under administration total a half a trillion dollars.

Favorable equity markets have obviously helped here, but once again, our expansion markets have accelerated our growth. In these markets, AUM is growing 5 times faster than our legacy markets, albeit off a smaller base.

When we step back and look at the year as a whole, we've grown considerably faster than we anticipated coming into 2026. We are bringing new clients into the franchise, expanding relationships across businesses and markets, and converting that activity into durable growth in loans, deposits, and fee income.

As we enter the final quarter of the year, we remain focused on disciplined growth, prudent risk management, and continued investment in the capabilities that strengthen our competitive position. As always, I would like to thank our employees for their hard work and commitment.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rob to take you through the details of the quarter. Rob?

Rob Reilly

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Our balance sheet is on slide 5 and is presented on an average basis.

For the linked-quarter, loans of $372 billion grew by $9 billion, or 2%. Security balances increased 3% to $151 billion.

Average deposits increased $4 billion, or 1%, to $461 billion. The borrowings increased $7 billion to $86 billion.

However, on a spot basis, deposits increased $17 billion, and borrowed funds declined $6 billion, reflecting continued optimization of our funding mix. Our tangible book value was $108 per common share, down 3% linked-quarter, entirely driven by the decline in AOCI, and was stable compared with the same period a year ago.

We remain well-capitalized, with an estimated CET1 ratio of 9.8%. We continue to be well-positioned with capital flexibility.

During the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders, which included approximately $800 million of common dividends and $560 million of share repurchases. Going forward, we expect fourth quarter repurchases to approximate the same level.

Our return on tangible common equity was more than 18% in the third quarter. Slide 6 shows our loans in more detail.

During the third quarter, average loans increased $9 billion, or 2%, to $372 billion. C&I balances increased $9 billion, or 4%, reflecting broad-based growth across our businesses and higher utilization.

Commercial real estate balances increased $2 billion, or 4%, driven by strong new production. Consumer loans declined $1 billion, or 1%, as growth in credit card was more than offset by lower residential mortgages, as well as the transfer of our student loan portfolio to held-for-sale.

You may recall we stopped originating student loans last year, and the transfer represents the final step in exiting this non-strategic business. We expect the sale to have a de minimis financial impact.

In regard to loans overall, spot loans grew $11 billion in the quarter, contributing to the strong loan growth we've had throughout the year, all of which substantially exceeded what we expected at the beginning of the year. Through the first nine months of 2026, we've added $47 billion, or 14%.

While approximately $15 billion came through the First Bank acquisition, more than $30 billion of the growth has been generated organically, reflecting strong client activity and execution across our franchise. Slide 7 details our investment securities and swap portfolios.

We continue to maintain a high-quality, short-duration position. During the third quarter, average investment securities increased $4 billion, or 3%.

Our security yield was 3.59%, an increase of 14 basis points. As of September 30th, our duration was 4.1 years.

Looking ahead, we expect approximately $5 billion of fixed rate securities to run off during the fourth quarter at a weighted average yield of 2.65%. Our received-fixed swap portfolio totaled $83 billion at quarter-end, with an average received-fixed rate of 3.92%, which increased 17 basis points from last quarter.

Importantly, we have a clear path for continued fixed rate asset repricing over the next several years. Overall, we remain well-positioned for a rising rate environment, which will support net interest income, capital generation, and balance sheet flexibility.

Slide 8 covers our deposit balances in more detail. Average deposits increased $4 billion to $461 billion during the third quarter, driven by growth in interest-bearing balances.

Non-interest-bearing deposits were $101 billion and represented 22% of total deposits. Notably, period-end deposits increased $17 billion, or 4%, compared to June 30th.

The strong growth was driven by commercial interest-bearing deposits, which increased $11 billion, or 7%. In addition, brokered CDs grew $7 billion.

The commercial deposit growth was due in part to seasonality, but also reflective of both new and expanded client relationships. In regard to deposit costs, our total rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased 7 basis points to 1.98%, including brokered CDs.

Excluding brokered CDs, the rate paid increased 5 basis points to 1.96%. The increase was primarily driven by mix, as growth was concentrated in interest-bearing balances.

Turning to slide 9, we highlight our income statement trends, comparing the third quarter to the second quarter of 2026. Total revenue was $6.6 billion, a decrease of $313 million, or 5%, while non-interest expense decreased $347 million, or 8%, to $3.8 billion.

Excluding integration costs and significant items from both quarters, revenue declined $61 million, or 1%, as higher net interest income was more than offset by lower non-interest income. On the same basis, non-interest expense decreased $113 million, or 3%, reflecting disciplined expense management.

We generated positive operating leverage and grew PPNR. Provision was $189 million, stable with the previous quarter.

Our effective tax rate was 20%. Third quarter net income was $2.1 billion, or $5.09 per common share, as adjusted, to exclude the impact of $48 million of after-tax integration costs and significant items.

Importantly, we continue to demonstrate strong momentum across the franchise. Through the first nine months of the year, PPNR increased $1.2 billion, or 17%, compared to the same period last year, driving 19% growth in diluted EPS.

Turning to slide 10, we detail our revenue trends. Third quarter net interest income of $4.2 billion increased approximately $100 million, or 2%, driven by commercial loan growth and higher yields on interest-earning assets, partially offset by increased funding costs.

Our net interest margin was 2.94% and decreased 2 basis points. The modest decline in net interest margin was largely a function of the mix in loan growth, and to a lesser extent, increased funding costs.

Consistent with what we've seen throughout the year, loan growth during the third quarter continued to be concentrated in high-credit-quality, lower-spread loans. Again, while these loans generate attractive overall economics through fee income and broader client engagement, by definition, they constrain NIM.

Importantly, the underlying drivers of NII growth remain strong, and based on our expectations for loan growth, we calculate that our net interest margin will reach 3% or above in the fourth quarter. Fee income was $2.1 billion and decreased $137 million, or 6%.

Looking at the details: Asset management and brokerage increased $7 million, or 2%, driven by higher average equity markets and increased client activity. Capital markets and advisory revenue decreased $144 million, or 25%, reflecting elevated second quarter activity.

Card and cash management revenue decreased $3 million, as higher treasury management product revenue was more than offset by First Bank integration-related fee waivers. Lending and deposit services increased $12 million, or 3%, reflecting increased client activity.

Mortgage revenue decreased $9 million, or 6%, primarily driven by lower residential volumes. Other non-interest income was $214 million and included a negative $25 million impact from significant items related to net Visa activity.

Notably, we continue to see strong momentum across our lines of business and throughout our markets, and through the first nine months of the year, our non-interest income totaled $7.3 billion, up $979 million, or 15%, compared to the same period last year. Turning to slide 11, third quarter expenses decreased $347 million, or 8%, compared with the second quarter.

Third quarter results included $27 million of integration costs, compared to $261 million of integration costs and significant items in the second quarter. Excluding these items from both quarters, non-interest expense decreased $113 million, or 3%.

We remain focused on expense management and were on track to reach our goal to reduce costs by $350 million in 2026 through our continuous improvement program, which, as a reminder, is independent of the First Bank acquisition. This program will continue to fund significant portions of our ongoing business and technology investments.

Our credit metrics are presented on slide 12. Overall credit quality remains strong.

Non-performing loans increased $167 million, or 8%, to $2.2 billion. The increase was primarily driven by the pull-through of previously reserved CRE office loans, as well as one large commercial credit.

Total delinquencies declined $135 million to $1.3 billion and now represent .34% of total loans, down from .39% last quarter. Net charge-offs were $257 million, or 28 basis points of average loans, and included $35 million associated with the student loan transfer.

Excluding that impact, underlying net charge-offs remained consistent with our prior quarter. At the end of the third quarter, our allowance for credit losses totaled $5.4 billion, or 1.42% of total loans.

To summarize, PNC reported a strong third quarter of 2026, and we're well-positioned for the remainder of the year. Regarding our view of the overall economy, our base case assumes GDP growth to be above 2% in 2026, with continued modest job gains and the unemployment rate holding steady.

We expect the Fed to increase rates two additional times, with a 25 basis point increase at the December 2026 and March 2027 meetings, ultimately reaching a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. For ease of comparability with our prior guidance, our full year outlook excludes the impact of First Bank integration charges and significant items.

Considering our reported nine months operating results, fourth quarter expectations, and current economic forecast, our outlook for the full year 2026 compared to 2025 results is as follows. We expect full year average loan growth of approximately 13.5%.

We expect full year net interest income to be up 15.5%. We expect non-interest income to be up approximately 10.5%.

Taking the component pieces of revenue together, we expect total revenue to be up approximately 13.7%, non-interest expense to be up approximately 9.5%, and we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 19.5%. Our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to the third quarter of 2026 is as follows.

We expect average loans to be up approximately 2.5%, net interest income to be up approximately 4%, fee income to be up approximately 3.5%, other non-interest income to be approximately $250 million. We expect adjusted non-interest expense to increase approximately 5%.

We expect fourth quarter net charge-offs to be approximately $250 million. With that, Bill and I are ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session.

If you'd like to be placed into question queue, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.

You may press *2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing *1.

One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from John Pancari from Evercore ISI.

Your line is now live.

John Pancari

Morning.

Rob Reilly

Hey, good morning, John.

John Pancari

Appreciate the color that you gave on the margin dynamics. You saw the compression in the quarter, but and deposit costs up 7 bps, or 5 bps ex the brokered.

Can you maybe discuss, given the deposit dynamics, but also your continued growth in the lower spread, higher-quality loans, maybe just discuss the confidence in that 3% or higher margin by the fourth quarter, or maybe just how you think about those dynamics impacting the margin as you look at 2027? I guess maybe just a little bit of color on what the trade-off is, how you're looking at the lower-spread, higher-quality loans in terms of the impact on NII and as you look out from here?

Thanks.

Bill Demchak

Thanks, John. I'll hit it.

I'm not going to talk about NIM because it's an outcome. Rob kind of says, hey, we'll be over 3.

That's on a forecast. Many things could change that.

I will talk about NII, though. The couple of things happened.

One is 50% of our loan growth occurred in the last two weeks of the quarter. We didn't get the benefit of that in NII, even though we saw sort of saw it in pipeline.

That rolls forward in kind of Rob's forecast. The other thing, somewhat surprisingly, is spreads overall, or spreads on average declined, was it around 3 basis points or something?

Yep.

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Bill Demchak

Some of that was kind of high-yielding loans paying down, and some of it was just new production, as we've talked about, and kind of higher-quality stuff dropping the average, which just surprised us at the margin. Then the third piece, we didn't have some escrow balances we thought we'd have, which would impact non-interest bearing.

You stick a calendar end date on this stuff, and you miss by something, and you get it back. We're confident with the momentum and where we're going and the growth and all the above.

Rob Reilly

Which is part of our guide.

Bill Demchak

All that's embedded in kind of what we put out there forward.

Rob Reilly

John, I just would add to that a little bit, in terms of NIM, generally speaking, everything that we thought would happen in the quarter happened. Rate paid went up exactly what we thought on core deposits.

The brokered CDs added to that a bit, but we didn't expect to do brokered CDs, as we just toggle between the cheapest wholesale funding. The difference was, the high-credit-quality, low-spread loans came in hotter than what we thought, and that constrained NIM.

That's the biggest difference in terms of NIM relative to our expectations. When we go forward into the fourth quarter, our calculation is to reach 3 or higher on NIM, even though we don't give NIM guidance.

The reason, and the easy way to understand that, is we see loan yields going up, we see that offset by deposit costs going up. They offset each other, and then the securities' fixed rate repricing will be the delta that lifts NIM, and that's just a calculation.

John Pancari

Got it. All right.

Thank you for that. I appreciate it.

Then, on the lower-spread lending and higher-quality loans, can you just maybe elaborate a little bit more in terms of the type of lending and you gave a little bit of color there on the spread, but maybe the average origination yield, and I know you've talked about the trade-off on fee income as well and then higher quality from the credit side. Maybe give us an idea of the type of credit loss assumption as you put these loans on your books?

Bill Demchak

Sorry, credit loss assumption?

Rob Reilly

Very low.

Bill Demchak

Yeah. It's a lot of growth in the corporate finance book broadly.

I think every category in our breakdown of corporate loans increased this quarter.

Rob Reilly

That's right. Except other.

Bill Demchak

Except other. Paced by growth in real estate on a percentage basis.

Also, just paydown of higher-spread loans had an impact. Right?

It's hard for new production to actually drop the total average spend by 3. What we saw was the mix of our existing loans, the paydowns, biased towards riskier stuff paying off, which is kind of a good thing, but it drops the spread.

Rob Reilly

No, that's right. We're a leader in trade receivables, asset-backed.

Bill Demchak

That's

Rob Reilly

been strong all year. What we point to, John, and we said this on the second quarter call, you've got to see capital markets fees are up 40%.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

When you put that together, a lot of those loans are driving those fees. Together, accretive to NII, accretive to earnings, accretive to ROTCE.

Not necessarily NII because of the fee portion of that. If you just look at NII and NIM in isolation, you're not seeing the whole transaction.

John Pancari

Got it. Very helpful.

Mhm.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Scott Siefers from TD Cowen.

Your line is now live.

Scott Siefers

Thank you. Good morning for taking the question.

Rob Reilly

I guess the

Scott Siefers

first question, you guys have had just a lot of really good lending momentum, particularly in C&I. I was hoping you could speak sort of broadly to client sentiment, and how, if at all, their thinking is being impacted by higher rates?

I'm guessing, I think, Bill, you mentioned a second ago, half of the quarter's total loan growth occurred in the last two weeks, I guess I'm guessing not much, [laughter] but would love to hear your thoughts there. Then, is there sort of a tipping point in your mind where higher rates do start to impact the growth dynamic and client health, etc.?

How do you think about those crosscurrents?

Bill Demchak

Rob and I were talking about this last night, actually. Just what does this spurt at the end of the quarter necessarily mean or not mean?

I don't think we came to a conclusion.

Rob Reilly

Right.

Bill Demchak

I would tell you part of the outsized, if not all of it, though, just the pace of it is in our new markets. The new clients that we are onboarding at a record pace, and our model is working.

That's just driving volume. Intuitively, higher rates, if this goes forward, is going to crimp CapEx and otherwise slow borrowing, but we're not seeing any instance of that yet, and our pipelines remain strong.

Rob Reilly

We'll see. You've got to imagine some of that is in anticipation of rates going up on the margin, at least a piece of it, but

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

We don't know.

Bill Demchak

The pipeline's still strong.

Rob Reilly

Pipeline is strong. That's true.

Scott Siefers

Okay. Perfect.

Then, maybe to drop it down. I guess, a little bit of a follow-up on some of the fee dynamics.

I think at the larger banks, this notion of a sort of a cooling in capital markets activity since, call it, post-Labor Day has been a big factor. Just curious how you're thinking about things like particularly at Harris Williams, seems like very good activity.

Just how you're thinking about the overall capital markets trajectory? Yeah.

Rob Reilly

Yeah. No, we feel good about it.

Like I said, we've had a very good year-to-date. We had a really strong second quarter that we didn't expect to continue into the third quarter.

The pipelines are good. I imagine we'll get into the fee walk down, [laughter] but we expect capital markets fees to be up almost 15% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter, reflecting those pipelines.

It looks good.

Scott Siefers

All right. Terrific.

Thank you very much.

Rob Reilly

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS.

Your line is now live.

Erika Najarian

Yes, thank you. Hey.

Just as a follow-up on that, I got a few questions on the run rate of expense growth in the fourth quarter, but it sounds like I'm going to be answering my own question, Rob, with the capital markets trajectory up 15% quarter-over-quarter, that's really related to cap markets, so that's not necessarily a pull-through as we think about expense growth in 2027, right?

Rob Reilly

That's right. That's right.

Done.

Erika Najarian

Got it. Yay, gold star.

[laughter] And just on net interest income, some of your peers, unfortunately, JPMorgan and BofA, gave previews on net interest income growth for the year. Correct me if I'm wrong, Rob, but I'm calculating something like 10% ex-First Bank net interest income growth for 2026.

The Street is at about 6.5%. Given the momentum that you have in your new markets, and you mentioned that you're well-positioned for a rising rate environment, should the rate of NII growth slow down by that much in '27?

Rob Reilly

Did you say unfortunately the peers had talked about '27?

Erika Najarian

Unfortunately, they've already previewed the '27, now we kinda have to ask you about '27, [laughter] even though it's still October. All

Rob Reilly

right.

Bill Demchak

So That was a very long way to ask whether we had guidance on NII for 2027.

Erika Najarian

I got to try. [laughter] I got to shoot my shot.

Rob Reilly

No, I think I can help you out there. As you mentioned, in regard to 2027 NII, obviously, that's out there a ways, it's a bit premature for guidance, certainly precision guidance.

In fairness, given the certainty around the fixed rate asset repricing, which has been part of our story in '26, will be in '27 and beyond that, and the magnitude of that, it does add some certainty that you typically wouldn't have this far in advance. When we look at it, clearly in '27, we'll exceed a net interest income, our annualized run rate of what we project to finish 2026 in.

When we look at the consensus in terms of where you are, you've sort of hit it. That's $1 billion to $1.1 billion above 2026 in terms of growth.

I think we would agree with that range. When we get out into January, of course, we'll have more precision around it.

The fixed rate asset repricing in the mechanical nature of that is real. It continues for PNC, and the magnitude is big.

Erika Najarian

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley.

Your line is now live.

Manan Gosalia

Hey, good morning. Can you talk about some of the deposit beta dynamics you expect from here?

Just given that the rate paid on core deposits was up, we're going to get further Fed tightening. Anything different going on with the start of this rate hike cycle relative to the prior one?

Hi,

Rob Reilly

good morning, Manan. No, I don't think so.

I think in terms of our expectations in terms of betas, in an increasing rate cycle, we'll see what we've seen in the past. On the fund

Bill Demchak

One exception though, Rob. You've got to remember that back in, whatever it was, '23, I try to forget,

Rob Reilly

Yeah. No, that's

Bill Demchak

The big change was driven by non-interest-bearing moving to interest-bearing. Most of that, right, the excess deposits out of the system, coupled with the kind of base balances are, I would say, pretty constant.

Now we're going to see face interest rate betas move

Rob Reilly

Right.

Bill Demchak

In conjunction with history, probably,

Rob Reilly

but

Bill Demchak

the impact of that being a lot less than it once was.

Rob Reilly

That was a special time for all of us when rates went up 500 basis points. Set that one aside.

In terms of a typical rising rate environment, we'll see increased betas on the corporate side, for sure. On the wealth side, less so on the lower and consumer retail side.

I think we'll settle out in some sort of cumulative beta in the mid-50s like we've typically done in the past.

Bill Demchak

Part of the drive is just deposit flows from corporates, which come in naturally at a higher beta, higher rate, and we've seen growth. Some of it's seasonal, some of it just coming on the back of loan growth, in effect.

Growth in deposits coming through corporate flows that, at the margin, raise your interest-bearing deposit costs, even though it's all profitable. It's part of that big jump you said for spot.

Rob Reilly

That's

Bill Demchak

right. Deposits at the end of the quarter.

Rob Reilly

No, that's right. That's right.

That's good stuff.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Manan Gosalia

Got it. I guess as we think about that comment you made on 50% of the growth coming in the last two weeks of the quarter, any more color on what drove that?

Was it because the long end of the curve went up, it became more expensive to borrow in the capital markets? Any comment on the sustainability of that level of growth [into the end of the year?]

Bill Demchak

You got to remember that somebody doesn't wake up and say, "We're going to do a syndication today." They're

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Bill Demchak

They're in the works and it's a pipeline and they kind of hit on that point. Things just don't happen quickly enough for one of the economic factors to have caused everybody to go in two weeks, in the lending market, right?

That happens in the bond market, but not the lending market.

Manan Gosalia

Got it. Very helpful.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Ken Usdin from Autonomous Research.

Your line is now live.

Ken Usdin

Hey, thanks. Hey, just one quick follow-up, and Rob, I'll take you up on the fee line breakdown,

Rob Reilly

but related

Ken Usdin

to that, you mentioned capital markets. I figured you would.

Capital markets were going to be up. Wouldn't that have been already contemplated in your full year guide?

Just wondering on that 5% step-up in the expenses, are you also just maybe pulling forward some other investments into the fourth quarter too, or is there some seasonality in there as well? Just wanted to kind of flush that out.

Then yeah, if you can give the fee lines, that would be great too. Thank you.

Rob Reilly

Why don't you do that? Sure.

Of course, Ken. Why don't we do that, complete the fee forecast.

For the fourth quarter, we say fees will be up approximately 3.5%. Inside of that, relative to our categories, capital markets is the big mover, up about 15%.

Mortgage will be down. Mortgage isn't a big category for us, but, obviously, given where rates are and the seasonality, that'll be down.

Then the other categories, asset management, credit card, and treasury management, lending and deposit services, I would say are all stable. Maybe they could do a little better, but that's just what we're thinking at the moment.

That's the fees. On the expenses, part of it is taking up actually what we expect to do, not only in capital markets, but also in our private equity, you'll see that our other non-interest income guide is up for the fourth quarter.

We'll do a little bit better there than we thought. There's some revenue-driven expenses as part of that, but also some seasonality.

The important part, obviously, and you know this, is the positive operating leverage that we're pointing to, still in excess of 4% between 4 and 4.5%, which is fantastic.

Ken Usdin

Absolutely. Just to follow up, with the AOCI move, it's no longer in your materials, but do you have what the CET1 was with AOCI, and I saw on the deck that you're going to keep the $600 million buyback in the fourth quarter.

Anything to think about as we go forward if you're obviously generating a lot of organic capital and the push and pull between where your capital ratios are and your ability to continue that type of buyback? Thanks, Rob.

Rob Reilly

Sure. We feel good about our capital position.

We rounded down to 9.8. Our target is 10, and that was simply a result of loans coming in higher than we expected, which drove up RWAs.

We did have a meaningful repurchase in the third quarter. We expect to do something similar to that in the fourth quarter, feel good about capital.

On the AOCI front, naturally, you got to think about the Basel III rules that are just around the corner, or somewhere along those lines, which will increase us including AOCI, but obviously, the benefit of the private ratings will increase our capital ratings by about a point or so. Feel good about that positioning.

Loading AOCI into the CET1 ratio is a little bit of a stale measure because of those Basel III considerations. If we did that, we'd drop to low 9s, but certainly above 9 and still a pretty healthy TCE ratio.

Ken Usdin

Got it. Great.

Thanks a lot, Rob.

Rob Reilly

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

Your line is now live.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Hey, good morning.

Bill Demchak

Morning.

Ebrahim Poonawala

I just wanted to go back, Bill, I think you mentioned you gave two stats in your opening remarks: 500,000 500 new commercial clients and 215,000 checking account clients year-to-date. Just talk to us in terms of, one, should we measure low-cost deposits as a way to measure whether or not that strategy is working out and client conversion is being successful?

Tied to that, how hard or difficult is it to convert those clients into driving core deposit growth, low-cost deposit growth?

Bill Demchak

Separate the two. Retail share has been a real focus, and so we're proud of the DDA growth.

Part of that's coming on the back of the branch builds and just more presence in markets. Part of it's being good at what we do.

Ultimately, yes, that drives growth in non-interest-bearing and interest-bearing and full relationships. You'll hear, as we go forward, some of the things we're going to do in credit card that kind of cement the full relationship with these new clients.

That's to come. On the C&IB side, we're adding the same kind of clients we always have had, right?

This isn't sort of a new segment of something we're trying to do. We're just doing what we've always done in new markets and gaining share.

All of which kind of just builds the franchise. My whole point in the introduction is the client momentum and growth in this company, has never been as fast as this.

As good as this, yeah. We're executing.

That growth effectively replicates, right? We're not changing what we do, it just replicates who we are in a larger size, which is what we've been pursuing.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Got it. Got it.

I guess maybe well, we're just moving to expenses. I think we debate whether AI deployment, is going to boost productivity and maybe that lead to lower expense growth for the banks versus there's a lot of discussion about spend on cyber risk due to AI.

Just if you don't mind, where do you shake out on sort of, at least as we think about the next 12 to 24 months, is the cost drag a bigger deal than the productivity gains?

Bill Demchak

No. There's such a long answer to that.

I want to figure out how I address [laughter] that. Look, the incremental cyber costs associated with the AI frontier models, I think you see in our run rate today.

The cost as we work towards, I'm going to call it an agentic workforce, the fundamental transformation of the company into one that has an ability to deploy agents across workflows. Today, you see that mostly in creeping depreciation expense on the back of all of our data center rebuilds, remembering that we put GPU chips in our data centers.

Much of the work in preparation for all this was done in past years. Our data lake and data configuration, all in one place, one source of truth, digitized, policies, procedures, papers, HR systems that recognize agents as employees, the risk framework on access control, all of that stuff has been built.

What comes next is the reengineering of the company using AI harnesses, which would speed the development, and ultimately lower the cost associated with technology development and maintenance, followed quickly by product development delivery that aids revenue. We've been purposefully quiet on all of the above.

I think one of our peers said it, we'll show up when we have something positive to show you,

Rob Reilly

and

Bill Demchak

quit talking about that till it shows up. I would assure everyone that we have a well-thought-out program, that isn't about bells and whistles, that will ultimately allow for a transformation of this company.

Rob Reilly

Especially when you talk about it in a 2-year, 3-year time frame.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Ebrahim Poonawala

That's helpful because I think there's a sense of banks kind of falling behind on agentic AI, especially on the revenue and the client side, but sounds like you are already far along in terms of maybe we'll wait and watch in terms of what's to come. Thank you.

Bill Demchak

I what I would What Okay.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Go ahead.

Bill Demchak

What I would say is that, it's so easy to get hooked on the bells and whistles and cool toys that come with AI. To succeed long-term, I think you need to have the core infrastructure, that allows you to do this at scale, and importantly, allows you to do it yourself, without vendor support, without compute costs coming from third parties, and with your own personnel instead of vendors.

That's the path we're pursuing.

Ebrahim Poonawala

Understood. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, that's *1 to be placed into question queue.

Our next question today is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Gerard Cassidy

Bill, hi, Rob.

Rob Reilly

Morning, Gerard.

Bill Demchak

Gerard.

Gerard Cassidy

Bill, talking about bells and whistles on AI and all the toys that go with it, a lot of managements have been asked this question on these third quarter calls about the AI agentic agents moving deposits around and forcing deposit costs up for the industry. What's your take on that?

Bill Demchak

At its most basic form, there's no question that deposit movement is going to become more efficient. By the way, that's happened progressively for years.

Is it going to accelerate? Maybe.

At some point in time, given the movement in technology, you're going to see more competition in deposits. It's not showing up at the moment.

The current attempts at this with some of the new agentic applications that have come out where frankly, they try to come in and transact on your behalf inside of your accounts, incredibly unsafe, not going to happen, bad idea. For that to ultimately take place, there's going to have to be laws passed on liability shifting.

It's going to have to happen through secure connections and authentication and human in the loop. It's big splashy headlines, cool thing, not going to happen on my watch that something can come in here and transact on your behalf without you knowing it.

It's an incredibly dangerous thing. Independent of the fact I run a bank,

Rob Reilly

I would just,

Bill Demchak

yeah, I would just advise everybody that that's probably bad. [laughter] But your basic premise, there's been capital market portals that allow you to shop money market funds for a basis point.

You can sweep into a deposit account. You can put it in a money fund.

You can move it here. All that stuff's going to get easier, and this is going to happen over time.

To win in that period of time, we're going to have to offer our clients technology that is as good as these third-party providers, we can allow them to do what they want. Importantly, we're going to need to produce it cheaply to keep their business.

Rob Reilly

Maintain the service aspects of a transaction account.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Gerard Cassidy

Very good. Coming back to your opening comments, Bill, you were talking about coming into the year how the client momentum has been stronger than you had maybe originally anticipated.

Can you try to frame out where, aside from the new business, I understand you've got the 500 new client relationships that you identified, but from the existing relationships, where's the economic, I know it's AI-related probably, but what are you guys seeing in terms of what's driving this momentum, and do you think it's sustainable going into '27?

Bill Demchak

Look, clearly, we're not large in the data center finance space, but there is impact from the capital that has gone into data centers and tangential businesses, and that's driven some of it. I also think, we see this in some of the activity in Harris Williams, I think people have basically gotten used to an uncertain world and said they kind of have to get on with their business.

Everybody was kind of holding and waiting and waiting to see, have just figured out this is a new norm. The economy's ripping.

There's opportunity sets for people. I think that's what's driving it.

The clouds are as dark as they've ever were, but the economy's still strong, and people are investing into it. I don't know that it's more complicated than that.

Rob Reilly

I'd add to that. What Bill just described, I think all the banks are benefiting from.

I think we're benefiting from that, obviously, as well. In addition, PNC might be a little bit different because of the compounded success of our expansion markets, which just keeps showing up.

Bill Demchak

Which is just volume,

Rob Reilly

yeah,

Bill Demchak

share gain, it's

Rob Reilly

just raw. It just keeps showing up and it is driving our numbers higher than industry average.

As you see it in the H.8 data, you see it in the momentum.

Gerard Cassidy

Coming back to that, Rob, on the growth with those 500 new client relationships, are you replacing their banks or are you just a complement to maybe an existing banking relationship that these new customers have?

Bill Demchak

It's both.

Rob Reilly

It's both, for sure.

Bill Demchak

We have a definition internally on what is a primary client, and it's basically enough share of wallet to check that box as opposed to just doing ancillary business

Rob Reilly

with them. The larger corporates, it's typically a multi-bank deal.

The smaller middle market we'll be the new bank in some instances. Yeah.

Gerard Cassidy

Great. Thank you, guys.

Bill Demchak

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo.

Your line is now live.

Mike Mayo

Hi. Just more questions on the commercial loan growth, just maybe slice and dice it a few different ways.

For every $100 of additional commercial loan growth, how much would you say is additional industry growth versus market share, cuz I think the industry is picking up the commercial loan growth? Then, how much of it would you say is kind of AI CapEx-related versus non-AI CapEx-related or other?

Then the third part would be how much of this would be kind of new markets in the, say, the Texas or the Southwest? Thank you.

[laughter]

Bill Demchak

All easy questions.

Rob Reilly

That was loaded. Hey,

Bill Demchak

let's do it this way, Rob.

Rob Reilly

Yeah. All right, so that might be a take-home assignment.

[laughter]

Bill Demchak

What was the new markets' growth rate was what was it? Two, three times the legacy markets?

Rob Reilly

In C&IB.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Bill Demchak

Take that, all that excess growth rate is pure share, is one way to think of it. It's hard to come up with an answer on how much of the AI CapEx is driving loan growth broadly across the economy because there's clearly tangential effects on any sort of heavy equipment, transportation, energy, component producer, yeah, that's driving it.

I just don't know that I have an accurate answer to that.

Mike Mayo

Ecosystem. How And

Bill Demchak

Maybe the negative of it, Mike, is the more worrisome thing, right? If the CapEx broadly slows down related to AI, do we think, even though we don't lend directly to that, that it would slow our loan growth?

Yes, I do.

Rob Reilly

Knock-down effect, yeah.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Mike Mayo

What's the size of the new markets versus legacy? I guess it's growing two to three times faster off of a smaller base?

Rob Reilly

Right now in corporate banking, the majority of our in-market loans are in the expansion markets.

Bill Demchak

The balances are actually bigger.

Rob Reilly

Yeah.

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Rob Reilly

We've

Mike Mayo

got to take quick calling

Rob Reilly

[unclear].

Bill Demchak

Yeah.

Mike Mayo

You're growing two to three times faster in the new markets, and the new markets at this point are bigger than legacy markets?

Rob Reilly

Ex our national businesses, yeah. That's true.

Mike Mayo

As far as Texas or the Southwest in particular, cuz that's been a hot area recently, how fast was that growing? That the two to three times faster or is that even still faster?

Bill Demchak

That's the obvious one and it's growing at that rate. California's growing,

Rob Reilly

Florida.

Bill Demchak

Florida, yes. The business we're getting out of Colorado.

Mike Mayo

Then there is some industry tailwind though, right, with CapEx picking up overall? How much is that contributing, and do you think this is kind of a multi-year change cuz it just go back a couple years ago, there wasn't much growth, and now there's growth again?

Is this one quarter, one year, the next five years? I know nobody has a crystal ball, but you're closer to it than we are.

Bill Demchak

Yeah. Look, I think it has legs for the time being.

I think there's a lot of things that could knock the legs out. [laughter] Pipelines are strong, activity levels are strong, and that's going to continue.

We all see stuff that can cause that to stop. I can't see out that far, Mike, any better than you can.

Mike Mayo

All right, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is coming from David Chiaverini from Jefferies.

Your line is now live.

David Chiaverini

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Can you remind us of PNC's sensitivity to rates and positioning of the balance sheet?

Rob Reilly

Yeah. We're on record, and you can see that in terms of our guidance on, we worked hard relative to short-term rates that were pretty neutral.

Anything that happens in the short term in terms of rate increases for '26 in particular, we don't see a big swing. Obviously, and we've said this before and it's obvious, the steeper the yield curve in a good economy is better for us because of this fixed-rate asset repricing dynamic that as we reprice these loans that are on our books at higher levels, that's accretive.

We're well-positioned for that environment and that's part of our confidence in terms of our NII growth.

David Chiaverini

Thanks for that. Then, hitting on credit quality, solid trends overall.

You mentioned about the NPL increase, CRE office, and one large commercial credit. If you're able to share, or willing to share, what industry was the large commercial credit in, and your outlook from here on credit?

Rob Reilly

Sure. On the one large credit, it's in the service providers.

You can see that in our detail of loans. Nothing particularly thematic about it, just a company that's hit some cash flow issues.

The other part of the NPLs that's important to point out is the continued pull-through of the already reserved CRE office loans. We've worked that book down pretty well.

We still have a lot of reserves. As we've said for years, that'll flow through non-performers and ultimately charge-offs, but again, that's all been paid for.

Outside of that, credit quality is good. Consumer, you can see that in the consumer numbers, delinquencies are down.

C&IB corporate, with the occasional deal or two, very strong.

David Chiaverini

Great. Maybe if I can squeeze one more question is just on the M&A appetite, what your latest thoughts are there?

First Bank acquisition clearly is seeing some nice tailwinds and success there, but provide your latest thoughts on the M&A front.

Bill Demchak

Sure, I'll take that. Couple things.

One is our organic growth is surprising even us. You see that in the client numbers, in the pace, and size of pipelines.

Two, as I look into the foundation we are putting forth on AI and the necessary organizational change and efficiencies that will come with that, I'm hesitant to slow that down, which would perhaps necessarily be the case were we to do an acquisition of any size. Put differently, I think the world's going to change in the next couple years, and we want to lead that.

If that gets slowed down because we otherwise got into some big M&A deal, I think you could destroy massive value. There's always small things, and Rob always says this, we see everything that shows up, and you can never say never, and maybe there's some small thing.

At the moment, our momentum is fantastic, and the transformation we're going to go through, I think, is strategically more important than bulk.

Rob Reilly

Needs to stay top of mind.

Bill Demchak

Yes.

David Chiaverini

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW.

Your line is now live. Hello, Chris.

Perhaps you are on mute.

Chris McGratty

Oh, there we go. Sorry about that.

More of a question on risk tolerance. In your prepared remarks, you talked about that the growth in the quarter was high-quality, lower risk.

I guess, is there any change in either PNC's or client risk tolerance that you're observing with the changes in the macro and the rate trajectory? Thanks.

Not

Bill Demchak

inside of the way we're deploying capital. I'm not sure I understood the client risk tolerance question.

Rob Reilly

Meaning client demand.

Chris McGratty

I guess demand for credit, yeah. Yeah.

Bill Demchak

You'll hear us say this over and over again for years. We kind of stay inside of our basic structures and types of clients, and grow the book through increasing clients as opposed to jumping into new, risky buckets.

Great.

Chris McGratty

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

Bryan Gill

All right. Thank you all for joining our call today and your interest in PNC.

Please feel free to reach out to the IR team if you have any additional questions.

Bill Demchak

Thanks, everybody.

Rob Reilly

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast.

You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.