Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 30, 2026

Operator

Thank you for your patience. The conference will be beginning in just a few minutes.

Once again, we want to thank you for your patience, and we will be beginning in just a few minutes. Greetings, and welcome to Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.

Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press *0 on your telephone keypad.

Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to AB Mendez, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations.

Thank you, you may begin.

A.B. Mendez

Thanks, Sherry. This afternoon's conference call will be led by Phil Green, Chairman and CEO, and Dan Geddes, Group Executive Vice President and CFO.

Before I turn the call over to Phil and Dan, I need to take a moment to address the safe harbor provisions. Some of the remarks made today will constitute forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended.

We intend such statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as amended. Please see the last page of text in this morning's earnings release for additional information about the risk factors associated with these forward-looking statements.

If needed, a copy of the release is available on our website or by calling the Investor Relations department at 210-220-5234. As a reminder, this call is being webcast, and a webcast replay of the call will be available on our Investor Relations website at investor.frostbank.com.

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

Phil Green

Thanks, AB. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

Today, we'll review second quarter 2026 results for Cullen/Frost, and our Chief Financial Officer, Dan Geddes, will provide additional commentary and guidance before we take your questions. In the second quarter of 2026, Cullen/Frost earned $170.4 million, an increase of 9.7% compared to the $155.3 million earned in the second quarter last year.

Per share earnings for the second quarter were $2.70, an increase of 13% from the $2.39 in the second quarter last year. Our return on average assets and average common equity in the second quarter were 1.3% and 15.41%, respectively.

That compares with 1.22% and 15.64% in the second quarter last year. Average deposits in the second quarter were $42.6 billion, an increase from $41.8 billion in the same quarter last year.

Average loans grew to $22.6 billion in the second quarter, up from $21.1 billion in the second quarter last year. Frost Consumer Bank continues to stand out as an industry leader in both customer experience and organic growth, even as competition from new entrants to the Texas markets intensifies.

Year over year, consumer checking account household growth accelerated from 5.3% reported last year to 5.7% this quarter, driven by our strongest quarter of customer growth since the second quarter of 2023. We believe this continues to be some of the best, if not the best, organic growth in the industry.

This high customer growth is also driving strong increases in non-interest income. Year over year, non-interest income for consumer is up $2.8 million and an 11% year-over-year increase.

We've demonstrated remarkable consistency in organic growth since our expansion began in late 2018. Our success over the last 7.5 years of organic expansion has had a profound effect.

During the expansion, consumer checking accounts have grown 47%, said another way, a third of our customers are new to Frost since the expansion began. These results are further evidence that, as I've said before, our organic growth strategy is both doable and scalable.

We also see consistent, above-average growth and organic growth in consumer lending. Consumer loans ended the quarter with over $4.5 billion outstanding, reflecting year-over-year growth of $751 million, a 20% annual growth rate.

This growth was driven primarily by mortgage lending, which has year-over-year growth of $533 million, and second-lien home equity products, which grew $198 million. Looking at consumer deposits, they were down 0.7% for the first quarter, reflecting primarily seasonal trends.

Our commercial line of business is also showing impressive growth. As an example, our 90-day weighted loan pipeline increased 11% from the first quarter to the highest level in our history at $2.17 billion.

It demonstrates good balance, with about half representing C&I and half representing CRE. About 62% of our pipeline represents customer deals versus prospect deals of 38%.

Looking at new loan commitments booked, the second quarter was up 23% from Q1 and marked the second highest quarterly total in two years. Core commitments booked, remember that core relationships are defined as those under $10 million, made up 58% of the dollar amount of our commitments in the second quarter.

In addition, growth from the previous quarter was good in all segments: C&I up 15%, CRE up 33%, energy up 47%, and personal up 13%. Now let's look at new relationships.

New relationships were down 1% from the first quarter, but this was the fifth consecutive quarter over 1,000. The expansion continues to be a significant driver of commercial relationships and accounted for 33% of Houston's new relationships, 39% of Dallas's, and 24% of Austin's.

Overall, the expansion accounted for 22% of commercial relationships for the quarter. Finally, market disruption continues to be a tailwind for us.

Year to date, new relationships from this source are up 65% compared to the same period last year. Our overall credit quality remains good by historical standards.

Total criticized problem loans, which we define as those risk-graded 10 or worse, totaled $917 million at the end of the second quarter, down from $989 million last quarter and $989 million a year ago. Decrease in the quarter was result of several successful resolutions that had been anticipated in prior quarters.

Non-performing assets totaled $114 million at the end of the second quarter, up from $73 million last quarter and $64 million a year ago. The quarter-end non-performing asset figure represents 49 basis points of period-end loans and 21 basis points of total assets, as compared to 33 and 14 basis points last quarter.

The increase in non-performers mainly relates to one $54 million multifamily commercial real estate loan that is working through a sale of the property, with an expected resolution in either the third or fourth quarter. This was partly offset by a $20 million paydown on a non-performing loan identified in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Net charge-offs for the second quarter were $9.5 million compared to $5.7 million last quarter and $11.1 million a year ago. Annualized net charge-offs for the second quarter represented 17 basis points of average loans, compared to 11 basis points last quarter and 21 basis points a year ago.

In addition to our success in commercial and consumer business lines, I'm also optimistic about our efforts around expanding our wealth management and insurance brokerage businesses. I'll end by thanking our amazing staff for these outstanding results that were achieved and recognizing that they make it all happen.

With that, I'll turn it over to Dan for some additional insights.

Dan Geddes

Thank you, Phil. Let me start off by discussing our branch expansion growth.

As a reminder, this performance now includes 11 additional branches opened in trade areas outside of our announced expansions in Houston, Dallas, and Austin. During the second quarter, our branch expansion delivered 16 cents or 5.8% of EPS accretion, and 30 cents year to date or 5.9% of EPS accretion.

We continue to be pleased with the volumes we've been able to achieve. On a year-over-year basis, average loans grew 38%, representing 13.4% of total loans, up from 10.5% a year ago, and contributed 53% of the growth, while average deposits grew 20%, representing 8.7% of deposits versus 7.4% in the same period last year, and contributed 72% of the growth.

The expansion branches have now grown to $3 billion in loans, $3.7 billion in deposits, and have added over 100,000 new households. We have opened 5 new locations since our last call: 1 in the Austin region, 1 in the Dallas region, 1 in the San Antonio region, and 2 in the Fort Worth region.

Our current plan is to open an additional 5 branches over the balance of 2026. Now moving to second quarter financial performance for the company.

Our net interest margin percentage was 3.75% for the quarter, up 1 basis point from the 3.74% reported last quarter. Net interest margin was positively impacted by a volume shift of earning assets from lower-yielding balances held at the Fed in both loans and investment securities.

These were somewhat offset by both increased volumes of interest-bearing deposits and higher overall cost of deposits. Looking at our investment portfolio, the total investment portfolio averaged $20.6 billion during the second quarter, up $796 million from the previous quarter.

Investment purchases during the quarter totaled $2.2 billion, consisting of $1.95 billion of agency MBS securities yielding 5.32%, and $259 million of municipals yielding 5.57% on a tax-equivalent basis. Maturities during the quarter included $375 million of Treasuries with an average yield of 3.35%, $211 million of municipals at an average tax-equivalent yield of 5.46%, and $427 million of agency MBS paydowns.

The net unrealized loss on the available-for-sale portfolio at the end of the quarter was $1.15 billion, compared with the $1.04 billion reported at the end of the previous quarter. The taxable equivalent yield on the total investment portfolio during the quarter was 3.96%, up 11 basis points from the previous quarter.

The taxable portfolio averaged $13.6 billion, up $840 million from the prior quarter, and had a yield of 3.51%, up 12 basis points from the 3.39% in the prior quarter. Our tax-exempt municipal portfolio averaged $7.1 billion, flat with the prior quarter, and had a taxable equivalent yield of 4.87%, up 14 basis points from the prior quarter.

At the end of the second quarter, approximately 68% of the municipal portfolio was pre-refunded or PSF insured. The duration of the investment portfolio at the end of the second quarter was 4.9 years, down from 5.2 years at the end of the first quarter.

Looking at our funding sources, on a linked-quarter basis, average total deposits of $42.6 billion were up $394 million from the previous quarter. The increase was approximately 80% in interest-bearing and 20% in non-interest-bearing deposits.

Phil mentioned the consumer deposits seasonal second quarter behavior. I wanted to give some additional color on how commercial deposits performed as the second quarter ended and how overall deposits are looking thus far in July.

Average commercial deposits for the month of June increased about $770 million or 3.6% compared to the average for the month of March, with even growth in checking accounts, money market accounts, and CDs. Thus far in July, we are seeing continued trends of deposits firming, with average July deposits up an annualized 3.9%.

The cost of interest-bearing deposits in the second quarter was 1.61%, up 6 basis points from 1.55% in the first quarter. Customer repos for the second quarter averaged $4.4 billion, up $219 million from the first quarter.

The cost of customer repos for the quarter was 2.65%, down 5 basis points from the first quarter. Looking at non-interest income and expense, I'll point out a couple of seasonal items impacting the linked-quarter results.

Regarding non-interest income, insurance commissions and fees were down $7.9 million. Recall that the first quarter is a seasonally merit increases starting in May, and higher headcount related to branch expansion.

Our benefits expense was down $9.5 million, impacted by lower payroll taxes and 401(k) expense, a normal trend as the first quarter is normally higher due to payment of annual incentive payments. Regarding our guidance for full year 2026, our current outlook includes 1 25 basis point hike for the Fed funds rate in the third quarter.

We expect net interest income growth for the full year to fall in the range of 4.75 to 5.25%. This reflects both an increase and narrowing of our prior guidance range of 3.5 to 5%.

For net interest margin, we expect an improvement of about 10 to 13 basis points compared to our full year 2025 net interest margin of 3.66%. This narrows the range compared to the 10 to 15 basis point improvement last quarter.

We expect full year average loan growth to be in the range of 7 to 8%. This increases the prior guidance of 6 to 7%.

Regarding deposits, we expect full year average growth to be in the range of 2 to 3%, unchanged from prior guidance. Based on current projections, we expect non-interest income growth of 7.5 to 8.5%, up from the prior guidance range of 4 to 5%.

Regarding non-interest expense, we expect growth to be in the range of 4.5 to 5% year over year, down from the prior guidance of 5 to 6%. Regarding net charge-offs, we expect full year 2026 to be in the range of 15 to 20 basis points of average loans.

Our effective tax rate expectation for full year 2026 is in the range of 15.5 to 16%, lowering the upper end from 16.5% in the prior quarter. Regarding stock purchases, I want to mention that during the second quarter, we utilized $90 million of our $300 million approved share repurchase plan to buy back approximately 655,000 shares.

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Phil for questions.

Phil Green

Thanks, Dan. We'll open it up for questions now.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad.

A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue.

For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Dave Rochester with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Please proceed.

Dave Rochester

Hey, good afternoon, guys.

Dan Geddes

Good afternoon, Dave.

Dave Rochester

Just wanted to start on the NII guide. The improvement there, was curious what the impact was of the addition of the rate hike, which I think you said was in the third quarter.

Which month was that in?

Dan Geddes

In September.

Dave Rochester

Okay. It's just one quarter impact, probably not

Dan Geddes

too

Dave Rochester

much of an impact on the overall?

Dan Geddes

Not on the overall, but I think we've typically have said it's around a $2 million a month impact, and that's still the case. You get the impact of the last quarter.

Dave Rochester

Great. Then just, I guess, on the competitive front, we've just heard from some other Texas banks that competition is really heating up for larger loans, and it sounds like some of that pressure is being driven by banks entering the market.

It doesn't really sound like you're having a real issue with that, just given the pipelines you talked about earlier, but are you seeing any pick up in those pressures? Maybe if you just comment on the deposit side as well on that front, that'd be great.

Phil Green

I would say we are seeing a pick up on competition on the lending side, and it's mainly around structure. When we are losing deals, a preponderance of those are structure.

We're competing on price. We've said we're going to do that, particularly for good relationships, good prospects that are out there.

You have to find out what the market is, and you have to engage at a market price. We're doing that.

I was looking at some numbers on the C&I side, really not losing much to price this last quarter. I was proud of our people for finding out what the clearing price was and being able to get deals done on that basis.

The place where I've seen more deals that we were unsuccessful on, and you're right, we are being successful, but when we've seen deals that we've lost, it's mainly been CRE. That's been some price, but a whole lot of structure.

It just seems like the market is continuing a bit of a race to the bottom on some of these structures, you got to be really careful and make sure you're doing business with the right people and varying on what you would like to do in some cases, because you always do that, and for the best quality people you're going to do the best you can on structure and terms. As you said, again, we're being successful.

Talking to our people, we hear clearly that there is more competition as relates to loans, and so I'll let Dan talk about deposits.

Dan Geddes

I think the deposit environment seems to be where we're seeing some competition. Generally, it's for large-balance opportunities where you'll see some just really competitive rates out there for either CDs or money markets.

Some come with some, I guess, urgency. If there's not an action within a certain time period, that rate will go away.

That's really not the way we handle our customers or opportunities. We want to be transparent.

When we put out a rate, unless the market changes, we're going to live by that rate. I'd say that that's where you're seeing a lot of the competition.

You saw kind of an increase in our deposit costs, and some is just the natural shift, I would say, just with the market indicating likely higher rates, you're probably seeing some just behavior to find yield. We've seen that, but others, it's our decision to not lose business.

We're making that decision sometimes on deposit price, and so we're being competitive.

Dave Rochester

Okay. Then maybe just a big-picture question on the guidance shifts.

NII got better, your outlook for fees got better, your outlook for expenses got better, and I guess I'm trying to dig into what was it in the expense side. Was it just the better result this quarter that gives you a lower starting point for the second half?

What was it that allows you to tweak that expense guide lower while revenue expectations are increasing?

Dan Geddes

Some of it is just the second quarter performance, and now we have a half a year versus just looking at it with a quarter, we just have more information so we can have a better sight into how we expect to perform for the full year. We also just are seeing opportunities in the marketplace to hire, and so if that comes to fruition, and maybe on the higher end, if we see more opportunities to hire bankers that are displaced.

I would say, in general, it's just having more line of sight and feeling like for the first half of the year, we had expense growth, 4, 4.5, 4.6%, and feel like for the back half, we're going to have our seasonal fourth quarter likely increase in expenses on salaries and wages, and that's kind of typical when we award our stock awards. Some of those, by their nature, are vested immediately, and so you'll likely see fourth quarter exhibit what it generally has.

All in all, feel like that everybody here has done a really excellent job of managing expense growth. In a lot of areas, it's like I've mentioned in the prior calls, just a higher base in terms of expansion growth.

When you're growing 10 to 15 branches at 130 branches at the beginning, that's going to be a higher percentage than 13 to 15 branch growth at 210 branches. Some of it is just scale that we've now reached that we feel better about the rate of growth.

Dave Rochester

Appreciate it. Maybe if I could sneak in one last one on the purchases of securities.

$2.2 billion this quarter. You talked about accelerating that to offset some of the deposit cost pressures.

What are you targeting for purchases in the back half, and then given any runoff that you're expecting, what kind of net growth are you expecting for securities in the back half? Thanks.

Dan Geddes

Sure. Our plan, we're going to increase it about $750 million with that pull-forward that we did last quarter to protect the NIM.

Just looking at our investments for the back half, we have about a billion dollars more to spend in the back half of the year. Those will likely be split up roughly half and half between agencies and municipals, leaning likely a little bit more towards municipal purchases, or if the market were to give us an opportunity, we reserve the right to shift that to either one way or the other.

That's kind of where our purchase plan is headed. Did I answer all your components to that question?

Dave Rochester

I think that's good. Thank you very much for taking all the questions.

Operator

Our next question is from Jared Shaw with Barclays. Please proceed.

Jared Shaw

Hey, good afternoon.

Dan Geddes

How are you, Jared? Good.

Jared Shaw

Maybe on the deposits, as we go into a likely rising rate environment, what's the expectation around beta there with some of the mix shift that you've had over the last few quarters and looking at the expansion market impact?

Dan Geddes

Sure. Right now, we're running 46% beta on our interest-bearing deposits, and we expect that to go down slightly, I would say to the low 40% range throughout the rest of the year, just anticipating competitive pressures and our changes in our money market rates for the tiers that I mentioned last quarter, kind of the 100 to 250 and the 250 to a million on our consumer side.

Given those changes in just the competitive environment, that's where we would expect the beta to kind of drift to.

Jared Shaw

Okay. All right, thanks.

Then looking at the buyback, increasing the amount this quarter, is this sort of a good level that we should be thinking about going through the rest of the year, or is there some opportunistic element of the buyback in 2Q?

Dan Geddes

There was some opportunistic, I think. Then just like we'd mentioned, just our plan was to be consistent with our buyback, a portion, and then to hold back a portion for some opportunistic, and then a third element to hold back some dry powder for that, I'll call it a macro event that the market just goes down that you want to hold back.

I would say that our plan would be to have a third of that element kind of be in play, and then the other two-thirds depending on what the opportunity is.

Jared Shaw

Okay. Thanks.

Then just finally for me, when we look at the NPL change and you called out the multifamily, is there a specific reserve or charge-off that was taken in the quarter with that, or once that's resolved later in the year, there could be something that flows through?

Dan Geddes

Go ahead.

Phil Green

I was just going to say just to talk about the non-performer overall. I figured I might get some question on it.

The increase in non-performers, it's basically a net of a paydown of an existing non-performer and then the addition of this. The paydown of the existing one related to the shared national credit, beverage distribution business that we talked about in January.

In that case, we said we'd allocated a specific reserve of that one of $10 million. Given recent events, we'll only need $3 million, and so that's been a true-up somewhat, and that was a paydown.

The new non-performer is a $55 million multifamily credit you saw mentioned. It's in the Austin region.

The owners are negotiating a sale. It's one of the few remaining loans from the 2022 vintage that was underwritten back when rates and costs were much, much lower.

For some time now, those loans have been taken out by private credit, but in this case, they've got a third-party equity partner that is unwilling to participate further to do what it takes to make that happen, so that precipitates a sale. Without going into too much detail, in situations like this, one party can be hesitant to cover the expenses for the benefit of another party, which leaves the project in limbo until you get a sale that resolves these issues.

I think, as I said, they're expected to be little, if any, impact on the bank, but until that sale occurs, in this situation, we believe it needs to be classified as a non-performer, and that's what we've done. I can't recall if we have a specific reserve on it.

If we do, it's very small, but we expect that it's got a guarantor on it. We expect to be made whole.

Have a little reserve on it.

Dan Geddes

We do, about a million and a half.

Phil Green

A million and a half, yeah. Pretty small.

Remains to be seen if it will even be needed.

Jared Shaw

Thank you.

Phil Green

You bet.

Operator

Our next question is from Casey Haire with Autonomous Research. Please proceed.

Casey Haire

Great, thanks. Wanted to touch on the NII guide again, basically you guys are pointing to negative beta as the year progresses, but a little bit of NIM expansion.

I'm guessing that is fixed rate asset repricing and a rebound in loan yields to offset the deposit headwind pressure. Maybe just a little bit more color on that and where are new money loan yields today versus that 6.17%, and maybe spot loan yields at June 30th?

Thank you.

Dan Geddes

Yeah. A lot of it is just fixed rate repricing, whether that be fixed rate loans or in our investment portfolio.

Our fixed rate loans, what we're anticipating for the back half is a little bit over half a billion. We'll probably pick up somewhere north of 120, 125 in a spread between what's rolling off and what we're able to replace it with.

When you look at our investments for the rest of the year, we're anticipating getting back about $1.5 billion in the let's call it 3.60, 3.65 range. We certainly have the ability to, I think we're looking at yields in the 5.25, 5.40.

Let's call it a pick-up of 1.70 to 1.80 for reinvesting that part that's coming back. I would say, looking at really where we are on our loan yields, I think it depends on the mix.

I think what I would expect is continued, depending on where we grow in the back half of the year, we're seeing some opportunities on the CRE, and generally those get higher yields than what our average yields are overall. We are seeing growth on the mortgage product, and those are probably a little bit on the lower side of what our average yield is, and we're making that conscious decision to grow that portfolio.

We feel like that's a strategic decision, and just to go off on a little bit of a tangent on the mortgage, right now, the numbers that we got, our mortgage loans are attracting 45% new customers to the bank. As of this quarter, we've been able to convert those 45%, 35% of those we've added a checking account or another account.

The average balances on those accounts are around $22,500, which is stronger than what our average deposit for a consumer is, and so feel like that's been a really strong product for customer acquisition. Just also keep in mind, just one more thing, just where you're getting the NII, there is a $250 million Treasury that's maturing in August that's yielding at sub-1%.

We'll have a pick-up in the fourth quarter with that repricing.

Casey Haire

Yep, gotcha. Okay.

Then just one follow-up, just big-picture question on the Texas marketplace. We're hearing from not just you, from everyone that's obviously very competitive with some new entrants.

Just wanted to draw upon, you guys have been at this a long time, how do you expect this to play out? Is this just the new dynamic, or we'll see this last for a number of years, or based on your experience, how do you expect this to play out?

Phil Green

Oh, it's a good question. We've seen it a lot.

I think it will normalize after probably a couple of years. Some of these deals that are being made that are very structure-light, you're never going to know if that's a good loan or a bad loan for another couple of years.

Then things soften up, they'll see some things they wish they hadn't done, and it'll change their perspective on what they'll do going forward. We see that a lot.

We see people who are very aggressive in the market, and then things turn a little bit, and they disappear. That's one of the things that is I think well known about our company is that we're always in the game.

I call it, we're in the fairway. We may move to the left fairway a little bit, maybe to the right, but we're in the fairway, and we're easy to find, right?

We're going to be in the marketplace. I think it takes a couple of years for some of these aggressive things to work their way through.

People try to buy market share, right? They try to come into a market, they're aggressive.

They're not crazy. It's a pretty standard playbook.

I'm doing it in mortgage, right? We've been very price competitive in that because we want to be an element of the market that has to be accounted for, and brother, we're being accounted for.

We are being very successful. Will we always be that same level of aggressive pricing?

No, we're not. We're getting near $1 billion there, and so our pricing will tighten up.

I'm doing it, and that's sort of my perspective on it. It's been a couple of years that I've been in knowing that market, so that's kind of what I would expect to see.

Casey Haire

Great, thank you.

Phil Green

You bet.

Operator

Our next question is from Catherine Mealor with KBW. Please proceed.

Catherine Mealor

Thanks. I had a follow-up question just on the loan yield discussion.

Did the change in SOFR throughout the quarter have any impact on loan yields this quarter that may help boost the loan yield as we go into the third quarter? We saw that a few other competitors that have big floating rate books, and was curious if that impacted you at all as well.

Dan Geddes

There's about a 1 basis point impact of that SOFR index being, I think, around 3 basis points higher last quarter than this quarter, the impact to our loan yield was about a basis point. I think when we look at kind of the loan yields, a lot of it was just it's not one thing.

It's several, and some of it is just mix what ended up increasing. We did decide to refinance some commercial real estate and put them on longer terms, and part of that, we did lower the yield because at that point, the construction risk and the lease-up risk had been removed, and so the choices were, do we want to keep those loans on the books or do we want them to be refinanced into the permanent market?

This commercial mortgage program has grown, and it's around $700 million, and it's to our kind of choice developers that we have had a long relationship with and on properties that we feel like are, I'll call them legacy properties that they're very lowly leveraged and have high debt coverage ratios that we feel really good about putting some longer terms than what we typically would do in terms of being just a construction lender and then letting a permanent lender kind of take us out.

Catherine Mealor

Very helpful. Then just a big-picture question on the outlook.

You've increased the revenue guide for both fees and NII and then taken down expenses, it feels like we're coming into this positive operating moment that we've been waiting for as we move to the back end of your branch expansion plan. Curious, as you look into 2027, without giving specific guidance for '27, is that a trend that you would expect to continue?

Dan Geddes

I think we're around 140 basis points of positive operating leverage for this quarter, and I think even for year to date. That's a significant moment.

We recognize that, and we see that 2027, again, without giving guidance, I would say that with the tailwinds that we have with loan growth and with these just overall, I would say, growth in funding sources and deposit growth, that and with just again, what I've mentioned on our ability now to have a just a higher base of expense to grow at, that I feel good about 2027 being a year that we can maintain positive operating leverage.

Catherine Mealor

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

Please proceed. Hi,

Peter Winter

thanks. Good afternoon.

Dan Geddes

Hi,

Peter Winter

I wanted to ask about the margin. It's essentially at a highest level in 15 years, and obviously with the updated guidance, you're still expecting some margin expansion in the second half of the year, but is there room to move it higher next year, or do you think we're getting closer to a plateau on the margin?

Dan Geddes

I would anticipate kind of third quarter being relatively flattish, and then I mentioned that Treasury that matures, $250 million at less than 1% yield, so that helps in the fourth quarter, and so we should see an improvement in our NIM in the fourth quarter. I still think there's, depending on the rate environment, obviously, but if we kind of see a positive sloping yield curve and kind of rates where we either have one hike, but barring just interest rates going down pretty severely quickly, that there is room to grow into 2027 the net interest margin with a lot of just the repricing of fixed-rate maturities.

Peter Winter

Got it. Just with the fee income guidance, the update, it implies a nice increase in the second half of the year and much stronger for the full year.

Just can you talk about what is driving the better fee income growth versus January? Is it just you're having more success cross-selling the newer clients?

It's just a nice increase, and I'm just wondering what changed versus the beginning of the year.

Dan Geddes

For our wealth management area, probably the growth in our managed assets with the market, we had anticipated less of a bull market. That's a big driver.

We are gaining customers, albeit at a, I think, a 2 or 3% rate in terms of managed accounts year to date. That's a positive, and with all the changes that we've made in our wealth management leadership, that's a positive trend early on.

We're optimistic that those changes in leadership will yield, and maybe not it may take a while, but looking into the back half of '27 and '28, that's an area that I would expect to continue to grow. There may be some growing pains as some advisors may or may not be on board with the new leadership that may happen, but that gives opportunities for us to bring on new talent.

That's I would say that's the wealth management area. I think the biggest key, and Phil mentioned it in his notes, is just our customer growth, both on the consumer and commercial side.

That's a big driver of the interchange income, the fee income. Our ability to attract new customers is a big component of our fee growth, and I think is really the underpinning of that growth.

Our interchange has been really strong, and we expect it to finish the year strong. We're seeing good adoption in our Visa card.

We're seeing good usage in our Visa card compared to our peers, and so we feel strong about our interchange and in our fee income. Just growing new customers is really at the root of it all.

Phil Green

Peter, I'll give you an example, and I'm going to talk about an area that's kind of funny to talk about. I want to talk about overdraft fees.

Dan, what was our growth in overdraft fees this quarter?

Dan Geddes

Service charges were year over year were up 17%, and so my guess is overdraft was in that kind of double-digit.

Phil Green

It's strong double-digit growth, right? It seems like we do everything we can to not charge somebody an overdraft.

We got overdraft grace we put in place where you can overdraft us $100, and we don't charge you anything. It's like having a good buddy that'll spot you $100.

I don't have any buddies that will spot me $100. Our forgiveness levels on overdraft we're double what the industry is, I'll bet they're not far off from that.

It's for us to grow an area where we've been more and more diligent in not being a burden to our customers, but still offering them a product that they like, people use it because it's convenient, okay? There's something that otherwise we would have been moving down, and it's growing in, let's say 15%, because I don't have the exact number.

Dan Geddes

14.4.

Phil Green

14.4, okay. It's growing 14.4%.

The reason that grows at that level is because of growing customers. When when you're growing consumer customers at 5.7% year over year, they're going to use your products, and that that's what's happening.

Check card, Dan mentioned, yes, there's an element of usage that we've seen. For some reason, the the usage of our check cards is is increasing.

I I have, it it could be related to demographics. We've got some interesting information on demographics.

I'm not sure if I can keep my train of thought here, but all those things are really core elements of what happens when you grow your business organically, and I think you're seeing that. Since I talked about organic growth and I'm talking about, how people use your products, I talked about check card use, this is something I think is really interesting that we were just looking at recently.

Because you know that we're growing our distribution footprint, and we're doing it in a some people might believe an old-school way. We're actually engaging with the communities by putting physical locations there in Frost banks, okay?

Some people think that's old-school, but here here's some demographic information for you. If you look at our current distribution of consumer customers, we have 42% of our consumer customers are millennial, Gen Y, or Gen Z, 42%.

If you look at our growth in customers over the last 12 months, 82% of our new consumer customers are 45 years old or less. That means 82% are millennials, Gen Y, or Gen Z.

Not only is our growth rate an industry-leading, but the fact that we're able to engage that demographic, which is really the lifeblood of how a company grows and how these account relationships evolve over time, I think is a tremendous opportunity for us. Interestingly, Peter, when you look at why customers choose us, now remember, in consumers, 82% of our growth is from is from 45 years or less, and the highest percentage, the highest percentage of that growth is in the Gen Z, who are less than 29 years old.

What what's the number one reason, because we we asked them, and we have the results, I've got them sitting in front of me, the number one reason for people coming to choose Frost, number one, is convenient locations. That's true both of people who open the branch open the deposit in the branch and customers that open their account online.

Convenient locations. Reputation is number two.

Recommendation of a family member is number three. I I go I can go all the way down the line.

We got we have it all. By the way, competitive interest rates is about the third lowest on the list.

We operate a very simple business, honestly. We we are banking people in communities.

We're going to where they live and where the businesses are, and we're expanding relationships. What do your your growth in consumer fee income is growing.

You say the same thing on the commercial. We've talked about that.

Look at the growth that's happening in commercial service charges and commercial

Dan Geddes

Commercial service charges are up 22% year over year, and billable services are up almost 10% year over year.

Phil Green

Yeah. None of this is magic.

It's just hard work. Our people are great at at at growing our business and and engaging communities through organic expansion, that's what we've named this thing for the last several years, and we're going to keep doing it.

I'll expect to continue to see these kinds of results. Sorry to go on and on, but that it's that's what we're that's what we're seeing.

Peter Winter

No, the growth is impressive, I appreciate all the detail. Thank you.

Phil Green

You bet, Peter.

Operator

Our next question is from David Chiaverini with Jefferies. Please proceed.

David Chiaverini

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to ask about loan growth.

You took the guide up, 7 to 8% from 6 to 7. You mentioned about the pipelines being up 11% over the past 90 days.

Now you also mentioned about how aggressive the market is. Can you talk about the drivers behind what you're seeing to generate this growth?

Dan Geddes

On the loan side, I think the one thing to consider when you mention kind of loan growth in our guide up is that we did have a record amount of bookings last quarter, and a little over $600 million are revolving lines that have a less than 10% advanced against it. That's a very low advance rate, and so we feel like that's a tailwind for the back half of the year as those loans that are recently booked but not yet funded, get to some normalized funding ratio.

If we would have had the same funding ratio as we had last quarter, our average balances would have been up around $300 million. Some of that is in the energy area, where you would expect that their cash flow is improving and they're not having to advance on their lines, but the vast majority of it is on just C&I lines of credit that just aren't being used right now.

There's a big tailwind there. You mentioned kind of competition.

We mentioned it last quarter that we had won around a little over 80% of the opportunities with banks that had either been acquired or were the acquirer, and that rate is still, I think it's 78% cumulatively, since really the start of this M&A. We've won nearly twice as many loan opportunities over the same time period from those banks.

We feel like when we have an opportunity, that we're able to close it with competitive rates and structures. To be honest, a lot of times, they're looking for consistency, and they're looking for the banker that's been calling on them for two years, and their banker may have left or doesn't know exactly what the credit culture will be of the new bank, we're taking advantage of those opportunities.

There is competition, as Phil mentioned, in structure. Typically recourse, if it's commercial real estate, with some C&I, we saw one opportunity where there was just not a lot of covenants or restrictions around what they could advance, and we just weren't comfortable with it.

We've kind of said, we'll be really competitive on pricing, but structure, we're not going to sacrifice our credit for the sake of growth. It's going to be good growth.

David Chiaverini

Great. Then just a quick one on deposits.

You mentioned about how July decent growth here at 4% thus far. Is low to mid-single digits the right way to think about deposit growth for Cullen/Frost?

Your loan-to-deposit ratio is very low, you can afford to grow loans faster, but just wanted to see if that low to mid-single digit is the right neighborhood.

Dan Geddes

Low to single-digit deposit growth, is that what you said?

David Chiaverini

Low to mid-single digit,

Dan Geddes

yeah. I think that for the near term with rates where they are, there's going to be competitive pressure.

I think that we have 2 to 3% for this year, and I would mention that the fourth quarter of last year, we did have a customer in the data center industry, and they had a capital raise where we saw that their deposits went up and then around $700 million, and then they were down, and then they were gone by the end of the quarter. There's going to be a little bit of noise in the fourth quarter.

There's also an estate that settled in the fourth quarter of last year, around $200 million, and so, give or take almost $1 billion for the fourth quarter of the end of last year that will not be here in the fourth quarter of 2026. Keep that in mind as you hear kind of our growth for the full year.

We feel like with the strategies that we've implemented, that kind of range that you mentioned is reasonable for 2027 and beyond, not knowing what the interest rate environment is, obviously being a big driver of deposit growth.

David Chiaverini

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Janet Lee with TD Cowen. Please proceed.

Janet Lee

Good afternoon. Following up on your deposit beta question, you've talked about the competitive pressure.

Why do you expect the beta to come down a little bit, and maybe could you talk about the spot deposit cost at exiting June?

Dan Geddes

Yeah. The I'll get you the answer your second question first and then get into the get into kind of our expectation of of where our betas will be.

At kind of towards the for the for the month of June, our total deposit cost was 1.11, again, a little bit higher than than the than the average. Interest-bearing, you're looking at 1.66%.

I again, I think we're just, we're anticipating as we kind of get into get into the back half of the year that, we'll have to, likely just be a little more competitive on on some deposit opportunities and and and likely take advantage of opportunities to move business where you might you're going to have to look at the full relationship, both loans and deposits, and we could see just more of a of a of a opportunity driven by us offering a incentive for them to move from Bank X to to Frost.

Janet Lee

Okay. Got it.

You're still expecting that a rate hike is beneficial to you on both NIM and NII?

Dan Geddes

Yes.

Janet Lee

Right. Okay.

It looks like you're obviously still having very good growth in resi. I believe you mentioned about $850 million resi target by the end of '26.

Is there any change to that, or does the fact that the 10-year is up relatively high versus before, is that a concern at all?

Phil Green

The 10-year being a concern? Or are you talking about

Janet Lee

that For resi growth. Oh,

Phil Green

I think I see what you're saying. I think the fact that rates are up, for example, the 10-year, will tend to lower some of the refinance volume that we've seen.

One of the reasons that we're so much ahead of what was a public goal of being $850 million at the end of the year, and we're halfway through, already a little bit over that, and as we sit here, I don't know, we may be close to $1 billion now, is we saw really strong refinance activity. Now that wasn't our mortgages that were getting refinanced, because we're new in the business, but I think you'll see refinancing activity slow.

I'm going to guess the rate of growth for our mortgage originations is going to slow some, but really, home purchases and getting people in homes is the focus of what we do. That's been over half of what our business is, even if refinancings went to zero, I would still expect to see decent growth in our mortgage portfolio because of the home purchase component.

Dan Geddes

Just some kind of additional data points, for the first quarter, 46% of our mortgages were refis, that percentage went down to 36% in the second quarter. Our average credit score in our mortgage is 769, it's a good quality, and then in the second quarter, the average loan was around $640,000.

Janet Lee

Thanks for all the color. If I can just ask one more, maybe for you, Phil.

Do you entertain the idea, or do you have any appetite to grow outside of Texas through de novo expansion? I know you're focused on organic, but just wanted to see whether that's something that you would consider.

Phil Green

It is something that I would consider. Just taking the long-term view of our business, ultimately we'll do that, but it's not something that we're focused on right now.

The reason is that we have so much opportunity in Texas, and the state is just an amazing economy. We'll do that for the next, I'll say foreseeable future, but at some point in time, there's no reason why what we do, which is providing this amazing service proposition and consistency and all the things that we do that people like, I don't think there's any reason why you couldn't go someplace else and do it.

One day we will. At least that's my opinion, I think one day we will.

Don't look for us to do that in any foreseeable time, but at some point, we will.

Janet Lee

Thank you.

Operator

Our final question is from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Jon Arfstrom

Thanks. Good afternoon, guys.

Dan Geddes

Hey, John.

Jon Arfstrom

I think almost everything's been covered, but just two things. Phil, you mentioned the insurance business focus for growth, and I think maybe that's the one thing, Dan, you didn't comment on, can you talk about what you're doing there?

Phil Green

I think the thing which gives us the most optimism about the insurance business is we are very focused on, in our organization, what we call teaming, but basically it's making sure that we're providing that product to other lines of business, and most specifically, our commercial line of business. We haven't had sufficient penetration, and when I mean sufficient, we're not at what I would call an average penetration rate for commercial insurance, which is where we mainly operate.

Personal lines is a small piece of it, and what's left is benefits and then property and casualty. I think as we increase that penetration and our leadership in that area is focused on it, we've got new leadership there in the last couple of years, in fact, it's being at highest level run by our Chief Banking Officer, who is commercial-oriented officer, he's got great visibility into how our sales culture works in the commercial line of business and how to translate that into the insurance business and make sure that we're getting an opportunity with this amazing commercial customer base to just get a chance to do the business.

I think as we've increased the way those parties work together, and in some cases, we've encouraged licensing with some of our bankers so that they have the ability to share in a commission, if you will, that we earn being an insurance broker. That's, on the margin, a positive thing, but I think, more importantly, it's an example of the new kinds of things we're willing to try in order to improve this cross-pollination and expand the relationships so that we're moving beyond even the deposit and lending and cash management function to where we're doing something and providing a product that everybody needs.

Everybody has insurance. That's why I'm optimistic about it.

It's mainly common sense. It's like, man, we should be better at this.

There's been that general recognition, they're working on how we can do that, and I have this saying, you got to be careful what you ask the Frost banker to do, because they're going to do it. I have every confidence we're going to be much more successful in the insurance business.

Jon Arfstrom

That's good. Helpful.

Then back on credit, it's not obviously not a huge deal, but any signs of changing credit conditions? Dan, just curious on your thoughts on where the reserve could go over time.

Should we just assume it stays steady over time or is there something I'm missing there?

Phil Green

I'd say with regard to the general credit question, we feel good about it. Let's say, for example, the non-performer we had in this quarter, as I look at it, there're probably three more credits of that vintage that was underwritten in '22, maybe early '23 before the Fed raised rates 500 basis points and we saw Austin soften so much.

Frankly, a couple of them are in Austin, but I'm not concerned about them. They may be like these other credits that we have had paydown through private credit, that type of thing.

They can go to a risk grade 10, as they go through that process, but they have very good financial sponsorship, people that are willing to stay and do the things that they need to do to get to that either sale or private credit alternative. I don't see, even though we have some of those that you could arguably look a little similar to what we have, remember we had a third-party equity partner that just decided they didn't want to play anymore, and that's fine, it happens sometimes.

We don't have that in those other situations. I'm not expecting a similar event like we had this quarter.

As I look at the rest of the portfolio, it's very strong. Energy is very strong.

Those people, I had a customer tell me very recently that, "Phil, we had our highest level of cash flow in our history, in the previous month." These people have a lot of cash flow, so that's really saying something.

I'm looking at Dan too, because he used to do this for years, but I'd say single-family builders have some pressure on them because, even though the high end of the market is still pretty good, the middle tier and the starter is really difficult when you've got mortgage rates at 6.25%. They're under some pressure, particularly the independents, and they're going to have to figure that out, but their balance sheets are really very strong, and so they're just going to have to get through that.

It's a cycle that you may see some weakness here or there. I'm not expecting it, but seeing some risk grade increases there.

Other than that, you think of anything else, Dan?

Dan Geddes

I think for the builders, they were making such great margins for kind of post-pandemic, and so they've had to give some of that back by buying down the mortgage rates to get the buyer into the house, I think you're seeing just kind of a normalization there. Our office portfolio, it had a payoff and upgrade and a payoff from last quarter, and the rest of the portfolio, we were looking at it, it has the highest debt coverage test of all the real estate sectors.

That's really firmed up. You've already discussed the multifamily retail continues to be strong.

Just to kind of look at our reserve, I would say steady. You might see a basis point or two increase or variance in the back half of the year.

Some of it was just moving the allowance from the funded side to the unfunded, and if you took the funded and unfunded over total loans were at 1.45%, the first quarter is 1.49, improvement, and I would say it's stable.

Jon Arfstrom

That helps. Then, Phil, for the record, I would spot you $100 for an overdraft.

No problem.

Phil Green

All right. It's a deal.

My money's good.

Jon Arfstrom

All right.

Operator

That will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Phil for closing remarks.

Phil Green

Okay. Thanks, everybody, for your interest, and we'll be adjourned.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference.

You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.