Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SFC Energy AG publication of the quarterly report Q1 2026 conference call. I am Hille, the Chorus Call operator.
I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session.
You can register for questions at any time by pressing * and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press * and 0.
The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Dr.
Peter Podesser, CEO. Please go ahead.
Peter Podesser
Thank you very much, Hille, for the kind introduction. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on a, I would say, a truly special day and special call.
After just stepping out of the night train here from Kyiv to Poland, I'm still in transit and hope that the connection is stable enough. If it's not, please remind us and then I think Daniel and I can share the presentation or I can find a space where I have a better connection.
As usual, we will lead you through the numbers, but naturally also now give you our view on the contract and program we signed yesterday in Kyiv. As said, we just arrived here after, I would say for me, a remarkable and impressive visit to Ukraine.
Besides, yeah, signing I think this contract, we are looking also at what is the impact of all of this to our business this year, but also beyond. I think we can only also express our gratitude here as SFC Energy to the Ukraine and Ukraine partners, as well as our own German government for their trust in us.
We also, I think, see this as an expression of, let's say, an important contribution here to this initiative here to enable the Ukraine to sustain their efforts in their war against Russia. I think as a new defense tech company, we are bringing different capabilities there now, and I think that's the main message here.
At the end, what do they use it for? We see them use it for naturally our conventional critical communication applications.
It's used as uninterruptible power in vehicles. The key elements are it's resilient, it's decentralized, and it's easy to deploy and easy to move in very short periods of time.
Then it comes to the, let's say, two differentiators. It's now again combat-proven like we have systems for years also with other forces, including Israel, but Ukraine has, let's say, I think a leading role right now, and everybody looks at what they use and how they develop it.
It virtually has, and that's a key element, no signature, neither temperature nor noise, and therefore a different level of safety. It's a safe, reliable energy source for the ones who use it.
This was also what we got back yesterday as a reflection when talking to one of those commanders there. At the end, he said, "Well, you're making the life safer for my young men and women."
It's not just that, let's say, our anti-drone laser operates now not just 7 days, but 28 days, a factor of 4 longer. It simply gives them the opportunity to exchange fuel cartridges and not charge batteries by generators and therefore expose themselves to a life-threatening risk.
I think that's about how is the user looking at it. If we now look at the structure of the agreement itself, it starts at the end this quarter.
We are supposed to ship a good almost half of the equipment until mid of the year. This is also the reason why we compromised on some capacity in Q1 here for production already to satisfy the needs here.
We are supposed to deliver everything within 2026. The first step now is to really operate under this contract that is financed by the task force of the Ministry of Defense.
100% payment out of Germany and with a, let's say, significant impact also on our cash flow, where Daniel can give you the mechanics and the details also in a second. The visit we had now the last days here on site was about naturally getting to a final signature on this contract, but it's now also about the next two stages.
Also this week's visit of Mr. Pistorius in Kyiv was about, well, how to localize now activities.
The next step now is support activities, training, service, and repair capabilities on site. Beyond this, then also naturally to look into a local supply chain contribution here from Ukraine, which we see in a timeframe of, let's say, 2027, 2028.
All those activities are still supported also by financing from Germany, as well as the EU. That's why we see, let's say, also an impact beyond the year 2026.
If I now go back to, let's say, what was the original naturally topic for the call, we are looking also at a first quarter with a significant increase in profitability. On the revenue side, as mentioned, we did compromise some capacity, and we're looking at, let's say, a shortfall of about 12% compared to last year's Q1 revenue.
If we look into the details here, we also have to say that the first quarter, especially in two regions, in India and in the US last year, were the strongest quarters we had. In those two regions, we also had a currency impact.
Overall, looking, let's say, at the 3 to 3.5 million capacity we took out of the first quarter and already used for production of components here for shipments to Ukraine in Q2, I think we can look at a solid start on the profitability side. Daniel will lead you through, let's say, the reasons for an improved profitability in terms of EBITDA and EBIT ratio.
If we look into the segments and also what we expect now going forward, yeah, the bigger impact we had on the Clean Energy part of the business here by delivering 24.7 million products out in the first quarter of 2026 compared to a 28.4 million. The lower sales, as said, in core businesses in the civilian part as well as in the defense part.
Looking at where we are right now at the end of or at mid-May, we also see, let's say, activities up significantly in Europe, with Germany and the Netherlands being leading here. On the defense side, we had the first shipments on a sizable project here above €1 million to Austria here for portable fuel cell systems, which also had a good impact on the mix and on the profitability.
No rebound in India in Q1, as expected, because it was the last fiscal year of their year to be completed. We also see and expect a rebound in the Indian defense part.
If we look onto the Power side, a slight increase here in terms of overall proportion of the clean power business, but also there in terms of revenue, an expected lower revenue in Q1 because we had, as already also mentioned and reported before, a soft start with our biggest customer, Thermo Fisher. Looking at their forecast as of today, and also looking at an upcycle in the semiconductor business, and therefore our second biggest customer, ASML, we're seeing a catch-up here in Q2.
On the Power side, a really good start in Canada in the oil and gas business. The high oil price doesn't lead now to immediate new projects coming up, but what we see is a solid execution on budgets.
We also expect this to be and have a positive impact on, let's say, Q2 and Q3 here in terms of significant orders and projects out there for decision-making. Looking at the backlog, I think, yeah, if we look at the historical data back in at the end of first quarter, I think that's maybe from today's point of view not that meaningful.
Adding up what we signed yesterday, we are looking right now at a backlog between 112 and 115 million total and a solid pipeline. Therefore, I think we were catching up compared to 31st of March.
With this, I would like to hand over to Daniel to look into the earnings of Q1.
Daniel Saxena
Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining our call.
I'll keep it kind of short today. I'm assuming that there the Q&A session will be a little bit longer.
I'm just going to go through a few highlights, a few explanation with regards to financials. Distinctly, quickly want to drop a word on the gross margin.
The gross margin on group level you've seen has gone down to 42.7%. We're coming from 44.3% in the first quarter 2025.
That is slightly below what we've seen in the first quarter 25. Still above what we've seen on the full-year level, where the gross margin was 40.8% for the entire year.
We are kind of happy and okayish with with that gross margin. When we look at the segment, and Peter kind of indicated already, the gross margin on the segment Clean Energy with 48.8% is on the higher side, so that is okay and a little bit above our expectations, to be honest.
If we look at the gross margin on the segment Clean Power with 26.8%, that is definitely on the lower side and below our expectation a little bit. The reason is, Peter mentioned it, that we had lower revenues in SFC Netherlands, where we have the power electronic components.
That margin decline is mainly due to the lower manufacturing overhead dilution that results in a result of those revenues. Again, the overall gross margin, we are fine with that and and it's on a decent and and on good level.
If we look quickly at the operating expenses, and also there let me just go through the three, four highlights for the first quarter, we had a positive impact from an exchange rate net gain. It's a small gain of €200,000.
However, that compares to a loss that we had in last year's first quarter of €800,000. We see that this has a positive impact on the EBITDA.
Again, also here, the larger part of these net gains have not been realized, as has a larger part of the net losses. We've seen that the expenses for IT and ERP are on a higher level, but it's not above what we've budgeted.
We will expect those costs to to remain a little bit on on the higher level. We also seen that the capitalization of R&D expenses is on a lower side.
We're looking at 40% versus 23% in the first quarter of 2025, which has an implication on the R&D expenses on the P&L. Still, overall, R&D expenses are slightly lower what we've seen in the last year.
If we look at the entire operating expenses, operating expenses meaning sales and marketing expenses, development expenses, and admin expenses, we see that we are roughly €1 million lower from what we've seen in the first quarter last year, which of course has a positive impact on our EBITDA. Main reasons are here and there a little bit less headcounts, of course, some savings or lower expenses for advisory expenses.
Overall, some of the, let's call it cost-discipline measures we introduced in the last year are still helping us and leveraging us us. Now we'll get to the adjusted EBITDA.
It's about €6.2 million, pretty much on the level what we've seen last year. With the lower revenue that we realized in the first quarter, that of course translates it into a higher adjusted EBITDA margin with 18%, which is, normalized on the higher side.
Of course, it will change a little bit to the positive with the large order we just received yesterday. If we then look into CapEx, CapEx in the first quarter, if you look at the cash flow, you'll see that it was above €3 million, which again is on the higher side, but the largest part of that CapEx is really the investment in Oneberry, which we had.
This is carried under CapEx because it's in a participation. The CapEx in PP&E and intangible assets really, without the investment in Oneberry, was a much lower level of €600,000.
That is the normalized run rate that we're having. That is I think something I just want to mention and go through.
Cash position, 45.7 million, again at a very solid level. It's about 1 million lower from what we've seen at the year-end.
The financial debt has slightly decreased, so that brings us to a net cash position of 42.3 million healthy for our operations and to finance our group. If we look quickly at the cash flow, operating cash flow before and the change of net in before, sorry, the change in net working capital is about €5.5 million, 22% lower from what we've seen in the last first quarter.
This is mostly due to the lower revenue that we generated. Net working capital quickly went down by sorry, went up by roughly 800,000k.
The largest impact on the net working capital had the decrease in accounts payable in the first quarter with a negative cash impact of €3.2 million. If you then look at our days of payable outstanding, 12-month trailing, we're at 63 days, which is 3 days below what we've seen at the year-end, not significantly, but apparently paying a lot of bills in the first quarter.
If we look at the inventory, the the inventory decreased slightly, not worth mentioning. Basically, it stayed at the same level what we've seen at the year-end.
Days of inventories have increased to 155 days from 151 days. Apparently, as Peter just mentioned, with the order of Ukraine, we will expect our our inventory to decrease significantly over the next two quarters.
Then and also when it comes to the working capital, we did collect quite a large amount of like accounts receivables, €2.2 million in the first quarter, which brings our days of collectables outstanding to 103 days. Overall, after tax payment, investment, and financing cash flow, the change in cash is -€1 million, at a very healthy level.
I will leave it at this in this call, and thank you very much. Getting back to Peter.
Peter Podesser
Thank you, Daniel. Let me summarize now the outlook.
Also apart from what we signed yesterday, I think we see a healthy development in the business. Based naturally on yesterday's decision, we have changed the guidance and we have raised the guidance revenuelike to 163 to 175 million.
It's not just an add-on of, let's say, the total order of Ukraine to this, because there are I think three elements to mention. We had a part of it, and a let's say obviously a small part of it in our planning, you can think about 10 million.
We add the differential to it, and then still there is, let's say, a differential remaining of another whatever 15 million, where at the end we see naturally headroom throughout the year to our business. There is still risk in some projects we had planned for, we still expect this to close, but it's not closed yet.
The other element is also it's not about production capacity, but it's really now a significant task here on supply chain. We have specific components, dedicated components for our fuel cell products, be it civilian, be it defense, where we are now working on still increasing capacity here with our suppliers, especially for Q4.
That's why somebody might call it cautious here at this level. I would call it realistic.
It's the range here that we are seeing as the realistic one. If we improve on the supply chain part and if we can execute on all the projects we had in there originally, naturally we would have to look at this range again.
On the profitability, we see a significant impact also the operational leverage and the mix impact here, especially of our defense business, bringing the EBITDA range up to 20 from 29 million to 34 million is the bandwidth we are seeing compared to the 20 to 24 million we had before. Likewise, on the EBIT side, also a jump, raising it to a range from 20.5 million to 25.5 million from the previous 11 to 11.5 million.
Overall, I think a solid outlook. You see us confident to really deliver on this.
The workload naturally now is on the operational side, but as mentioned before, we started to work on this already in Q1, as we had indications of an earlier signing of this contract, which now coincidentally was just the day before our publication of the Q1 results, which ended up naturally now in a sequence of news from yesterday night to today. Overall, I think having the overall picture right now, and we are happy to now go into the Q&A session and give you more details, especially also on the structure of the deal and the program here for the enablement of Ukraine.
Handing back to Hille to open the floor for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue.
If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, press * and 2. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question.
Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. The first question comes from the line of Karsten von Blumenthal from First Berlin Equity Research.
Please go ahead. I'm sorry, the first question comes from Usama Tariq from ABN AMRO.
Please go ahead.
Usama Tariq
Hi, good morning, team. Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on the great outlook.
I just have maybe two general questions. Number one would be so we have a very big order from Ukraine with regards to sustainability of it going forward.
I do understand that it is now sort of a one-off order for this year, but do you see some implications of it coming back next year or the years after it? My second question, if I may, would be on India.
You've already had a very massive order from Ukraine. Do you still see something positive from the Indian front, for example in H2 going forward this year?
Very grateful. That will be my two questions.
Thank you.
Peter Podesser
Thank you, Usama. Let me take those two on.
I think it's about then how sustainable is it going forward, and I tried to elude on two elements already during the introduction. I think the key part is there is a supporting plan still in place here from Germany as well as the EU.
We are talking about 44 billion on the EU side. The German program should be comparable to this year's 12 billion.
Assuming a positive feedback, as we had it already now before entering into this program, we would see, let's say, a continuation here. The discussions for next year's planning and budget, they are already on and we are in the midst of it.
Therefore, I think it's also important to see this order didn't happen just now, let's say, last couple of weeks as a surprise to us. We started to work consistently here with the task force, but then also directly with the different forces in Ukraine over a period of, I would say, more than a year, bringing our products just out there to the users, to the frontline, have them, let's say, experience it and put it what is called at the end their requirement list.
We are part of the formal requirement that was set by the forces here also to the German task force here for this support and enablement package. The other element is this is for one single part of the forces.
We are now in what is called the National Guards. Then you still have, let's say, the conventional army, you still have, let's say, special forces.
They all have tested our products already, we have positive references, and we expect a rollout there too. It is a program that has started in a very positive way now with this significant order.
The work and the expectation now is to translate it naturally into, let's say, a sustainable yearly business here. Therefore also the other element is to build up now the support and service and training structure on site and also go into a localization like we did it also in India.
Naturally, yeah, expectation here is and work or what we work for is to have, let's say, a continuous business here with the different parts of the armed forces in the Ukraine on a I think solid basis we are creating now with them. India, first quarter here still, last quarter in the fiscal year in India, there was no expectation there, yeah, a soft start in our first quarter, as mentioned.
We had quite some exchange here with customers, with our partners FC Tec there. As mentioned before, we have a very cautious planning here on our end, in our previous guidance we had about 5 million of business with India in there.
What we see right now is a rebound at least to this level. What we have is indications for some stronger demand and also the financing for it, but I think we would not change our expectations.
First orders coming in a June, July, August timeframe. The ongoing support programs are running and therefore, yeah, we expect a distinctively better year in our Indian business than it was last year, where this was, let's say, if you want to call it like this, our biggest headache if we look into 2025.
Rebound in India as of Q3.
Usama Tariq
Very grateful. Thank you.
I will go back in the queue. Thank you.
Peter Podesser
Thank you.
Operator
Now we have a question from the line of Karsten von Blumenthal from First Berlin Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Karsten von Blumenthal
Good morning, Peter, and good morning, Daniel. Thanks, Peter, for doing the call from the transit area.
Works very well so far. My first question is now you are kind of a Russian enemy, I think.
You are a small company, but is there any preparation from your side regarding possible attacks of Russian agents on SFC, be it cyber, be it terrorist? Is there any personal danger for management?
How do you see this?
Peter Podesser
I think at the end we have been well advised and well prepared also by the relevant people here from the MOD, from the Ministry of Defense. We have been preparing for this on the cyber level with an enhanced and increased security.
We are doing it as we speak on our premises and the same, let's say, for individuals potentially being exposed. I think there are examples out there, and I think we're following those examples.
All
Karsten von Blumenthal
right, that sounds good. You mentioned that you don't have a problem regarding capacity, but that supply chain is a challenge.
My question is do you have to postpone orders of other clients to get this order through on time, or how do you manage that?
Peter Podesser
At the end we were doing two things. If we look at the capacity, yeah, it's not about the production.
Now, as we all know here in this round, we did build up capacity in different parts here of the world, here with Romania and Munich on the fuel cell side. We do some of the assembly also in India for some of those products right now going to Ukraine.
We are well-equipped. The membrane part we have in our hands.
We ramped this up significantly. We are starting to commission our second robot there in Swindon in the next couple of weeks.
Also there I think we tick it off. It's really about dedicated components here for the normal EFOY, but also the Jenny and the EMILY line, where we are now working on really the supply, especially for the last couple of months of the year.
In terms of, let's say, satisfying our existing customer base, we have not, let's say, taken out orders or, let's say, not satisfied urgent orders, but we have scaled it back across the board, which at the end of the day then leaves us again with the situation that I think that the guidance range we have out there is a pretty solid one. Let's look at it again whatever in September timeframe, there might be some headroom.
Karsten von Blumenthal
All right, that sounds good. One last question from my side.
Could you say something about the US business, production side, demand there? Could you give us an update?
Peter Podesser
Absolutely. We are already shipping the first units that are, let's say, what we call so-called refurb units here to our biggest customer, LiveU.
We are starting also to ship products to others. I think that's working and under control.
As we made, let's say, an experience of being too aggressive last year in our assessment of the US growth rates, and also, let's say, uncertainty and spending, let's say, concerns in the US, we have a much more cautious planning here and therefore, I think we progress, but in, let's say, a different speed than we originally had planned for. Looking at North America in total, we do expect that Canada will, let's say, compensate for any, let's say, delays in rollouts in the US, with, let's say, especially the oil and gas part being really solid there, with a couple of projects in decision-making also for shipment this year of significant size.
More cautious in the US compared to Canada. North America definitely on track.
Karsten von Blumenthal
Perfect. Thank you very much for taking my questions.
Peter Podesser
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Robert-Jan van der Horst from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Robert-Jan van der Horst
Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congratulations from my side as well on the great order and the profitability in Q1. Most of the questions I had on the obviously kind of cautious guidance were already answered, but just to be sure here, you mentioned that especially in Q4, supply chain risks might lead to shift of revenue into the next year.
I just want to make sure that there are no penalties associated with possible delays of that contract, so that this is scheduled for 2026, but if anything falls into 2027, everyone is kind of aware of the possible supply chain risks here.
Peter Podesser
Absolutely clear, Robert. Thanks for being with us and your question.
There are no penalties associated to it, but we might have to calibrate some shipments here across then a timespan from November to maybe February. At the same time, we're really actively working also on a ramp-up of capacity here that could, let's say, at the end minimize this impact.
Robert-Jan van der Horst
Perfect.
Peter Podesser
We didn't want now to go out with, let's say, an overly aggressive statement and then have to explain or talk about, let's say, some supply chain shortages in September timeframe. We'd rather do it the other way around.
Robert-Jan van der Horst
Sure. Perfect.
Understood. Thank you.
Peter Podesser
Also if I think one thought that is linked to it, we have pretty favorable payment terms here in this big contract. Actually, today we will send out the first invoice for 50% prepayment and down payment.
We naturally also use this to accelerate part of our supply chain by being also flexible then in our payment terms. Actually, with the last shipment of the product, we will also have 100% of the payments in, with I would say zero counterparty risk, this being the German government.
Robert-Jan van der Horst
Perfect. There should then be a significantly more positive cash flow in the second quarter, of course, if I understood that correctly, 50% will be prepaid.
Peter Podesser
Absolutely.
Robert-Jan van der Horst
Great. Thank you.
Operator
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press * and 1 on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Malte Schaumann from Warburg Research.
Please go ahead.
Malte Schaumann
Yes, good morning. Congratulations also from my side.
First question is on profitability. Could we expect more or less similar structural profitability within the contract in comparison to other defense projects?
Peter Podesser
If I can start here and then, Daniel, maybe you can take over. If we look at this contract here, this is not just strict defense products.
We are also shipping, let's say, probably 2,000 EFOYs here at an industrial price level. Overall, I think if you compare defense to defense, also this is naturally having the usual impact and therefore is a driver.
Maybe, Daniel, you want to comment here on to this topic.
Daniel Saxena
Hey, Malte. Basically, yes.
Of course, it's defense business. Defense products have attractive margins, and that also applies to the current contract, to speak.
You still have to look it's a huge contract, right? It's rolling it out in a very short period of time.
It's securing all the material, and the logistical complexity may be a little bit higher. I think some of the margin on gross level will also be eaten up or compromised by slightly higher of operating costs.
Still, even if you take those higher expensive costs into account, it will still be a very attractive margin and on the higher side of what we see in our products.
Malte Schaumann
Good. Then your comment trying to make inroads in other branches of the Ukrainian armies, is that something that could materialize still in this year, or is that in any case something for 2027 as a follow-up?
Peter Podesser
No, we definitely expect first also shipments, not in this order of magnitude here, but first shipments to other branches, where we have their positive references, we have our quotes out, and we expect initial orders definitely in the second half of this year.
Malte Schaumann
Sounds good. Would you quantify, within the scenario of maybe building a sustainable business going forward here, would you quantify this contract as maybe exceptionally high, or would that be kind of the target level you would see as prospective sales across diverse areas of the Ukrainian army going forward as potentially sustainable?
Peter Podesser
I think as a target value definitely desirable. Is there potential for significantly more?
Yes. If you ask me about, let's say, what I would put into the plan now when we do, let's say, our formal planning for 2027, well, I would, let's say, see this as I'd say slightly too high, we would not put, let's say, the level of 40-plus million in, maybe more between 20 and 30 million as an ongoing and then project-based decision-making.
Malte Schaumann
Okay. Okay.
Peter Podesser
Also there, if I may add this, sorry, I think we also have to now see how it prickles in with the other branches here of the armed forces. We should be in a better position to judge this honestly in a 3-month time period, looking at, let's say, September when we do our also budget planning for next year.
We should have a better visibility, and then naturally we would assess this again. For the time being, I think a little too early.
Let us get our foot into the other doors, and then we can assess this.
Malte Schaumann
Okay. If the war would come to an end, would that change in your take of this prospects?
Would the customer still make investments into this areas?
Peter Podesser
We are seeing this across the board now with investments in defense. It's not just me, I think the consensus here really out of specialists, but also of the government sources is that investment will be high.
What we are introducing here, and it took us some time, is a more reliable, but also a safer energy supply here for all the different activities in terms of defense, not just the active combat situation. The other part to it is I'm sorry, I'm not sure whether this is with me right now, but you can still hear me, right?
Malte Schaumann
Yep.
Peter Podesser
Okay. The other part is that half of this whole project is already on civilian products.
This is really already targeting at the restoration period also in Ukraine, having decentralized power here for communication, for telecom, etc. Therefore, this also goes into, let's say, the rebuilding of the infrastructure where you have temporary needs and decentralized needs.
The biggest, I think, threat they have seen also to their infrastructure is this monolithic energy infrastructure they're having, and their enemy is always targeting at this. That's why I'm particularly happy with this distribution between also civilian and strict military use cases.
Malte Schaumann
Yep, makes sense. Okay.
Peter Podesser
That's really, and that's also I think part of the idea of the financing here from the German side. Okay.
Malte Schaumann
Again on the guidance, sorry for that, but the difference seems to be quite large between order volume and the guidance increase. I understand your take on maybe potentially hiking a bit later, but then in combination with the order intake in the first quarter was not that strong.
Is other areas where you see elevated risks that project won't materialize you had initially baked into your forecast?
Peter Podesser
I think what we had in there, and that's why Q1 is also on the lower end, was a slower start here on the Power side, especially with Thermo Fisher. There we expect decision-making for follow-on significant contracts to happen within the next 2, 3 months, which will, let's say, compensate for this part.
As said before here to Karsten's questions, we are definitely more cautious than last year on the US end, as let's say experience tells us it takes also some time for the rollout here. Production is, let's say, prepared.
We are on our way. We are doing the, let's say, diversification of the customer base.
We might even see some positive surprises there on the defense part of the business within the next couple of weeks. From the current view, I think it is, yeah, I know you see it as conservative, I think it's still a realistic framework.
If you look at it, if we take the top end of the guidance, you take, let's say, the 10 million we had in there as a potential value here for, let's say, this regional expansion of the business into Ukraine. If you then add, let's say, another 15 million that is the top end of the guidance differential, and then the remaining part, if you split this half into, let's say, supply chain risk and some projects at the year-end with a certain risk still not being in, I think that's the math to it.
If we look at it again, I would say right after summer or in summer, we might come to a less conservative conclusion here and then just make use of this headroom here. That's I think where we stand for the time being.
Malte Schaumann
That's fair enough. No major deviation from the initial forecast.
Peter Podesser
No. It's honestly, if we look at where we are there, we talked about India.
India was a real game changer last year. I think by being conservative in the planning and now seeing, let's say, more positive outlook here from customers and FC Tec, we will reflect this in a 3-month time period when we have the first orders in.
Similar here to the US. On the US end, we're still looking at a potential M&A targets which will not have a revenue contribution this year, but should then help us to accelerate market penetration the year after.
This is not off the agenda. This is there yet.
Defense US, I think we are progressing again. They're coming back to the technology.
Decision has been taken, and we are there again still this month sitting down to see whether we start a program together here with the US Army on a next-generation portable power systems.
Malte Schaumann
Great. Thanks.
Peter Podesser
Thank you.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Peter Podesser for any closing remarks.
Peter Podesser
Thank you all, as always, for your time and your interest and trust in us. I think we have a really good, let's say, outlook here ahead of us.
At the end, it's now about to execute on what we pulled in, and then naturally to branch out and bring it to a sustainable and repeatable business level, especially on the defense part of the business, with the impact on the profitability. If you have additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to all of us, Susan, Daniel, and myself.
With this, wishing you a good remaining day, and looking forward to catching up soon. Thank you very much.
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