• China has purchased at least 250,000 tons of U.S. soybeans in the second wave of buying within a week, with deliveries scheduled for late 2025 and early 2026.
  • The buying spree follows commitments made during a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where China pledged to buy at least 12 million tons in the final two months of 2025 and 25 million tons annually from 2026 through 2028.
  • The development boosted Chicago soybean futures to their highest levels in nearly 16 months, providing relief to U.S. farmers after months of stalled trade.

China has resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans after months of stalled trade, placing significant new orders almost immediately following high-level U.S.-China diplomatic talks and commitments from both governments. State-owned firms including Cofco Group have been directed to make the purchases, signaling a government-driven initiative rather than purely market-based demand.

The latest wave of buying, totaling at least 250,000 tons for late 2025 and early 2026 delivery, represents the second such purchase within a week. According to people familiar with the matter, the buying follows through on commitments made during the Trump-Xi summit, where agricultural trade served as a centerpiece of the discussions. The Chinese government pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and maintain annual purchases of 25 million tons from 2026 through 2028.

Market response was immediate, with soybean futures in Chicago climbing to their highest levels in nearly 16 months. The rally reflects renewed optimism among traders and farmers who have endured challenging market conditions since the trade dispute began. "This provides some much-needed certainty for American farmers who have been operating in a volatile environment," said one commodities analyst who asked not to be identified discussing client positions.

Despite the political breakthrough, questions remain about the sustainability of these purchases. Chinese crushers face thin profit margins due to ample South American supplies and weak soymeal prices. Brazil and Argentina have become dominant suppliers to China during the trade dispute, creating a competitive landscape that may temper China's immediate appetite for U.S. soybeans even with government directives in place.

U.S. grain exporters including CHS Inc. and Cargill are positioned to benefit from the renewed trade, particularly as China has lifted some former import restrictions against these players. The purchases come as U.S. farmers prepare for the upcoming planting season, providing crucial market signals after China recorded zero soybean imports from the U.S. in September 2025 for the first time since 2018.

Industry observers note that while the political gesture is significant, the long-term viability of U.S. soybean exports to China will depend on market fundamentals and whether both countries can maintain diplomatic momentum. Without sustained market demand or further policy adjustments, China may struggle to fulfill the larger annual purchase pledges, particularly with Brazil's crop remaining strong and competitive on price.

Efforts to reach representatives at Cofco Group for comment were unsuccessful. A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Agriculture declined to provide specific details about the ongoing purchases but acknowledged that "recent developments represent positive movement in agricultural trade relations."