ICE New York cocoa futures fell about 5% to settle at $5,170 per metric ton, reaching their lowest level since January 2024. The drop reflects improving crop prospects in West Africa, particularly in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which has eased concerns after two years of tight supply. Traders say favorable weather and better-than-expected harvest reports have reduced the risk premium that pushed prices to spring 2025 highs above $8,000–$10,000 per ton.
Speculative positions have begun to unwind, and open interest has declined as funds exit the market. Despite the fall in raw cocoa prices, major chocolate manufacturers have largely kept retail prices elevated, which has constrained demand and led to weaker grindings, a key indicator of processing activity. Market participants expect a gradual normalization of prices through 2026–2027 unless adverse weather or disease disrupts West African output. A meaningful recovery in consumption would likely require visible reductions in consumer chocolate prices.
Correction: An earlier version of this summary overstated the spring-to-current decline; the correct figure is nearly 40%.