• Supreme Leader's office warns of "mental warfare" by "the enemy" as regime intensifies propaganda efforts.
  • Protests that began in late December 2025 continue through February 2026 despite internet blackouts and coordinated repression.
  • Experts note regime vulnerability despite information control, with low-level unrest persisting from decentralized triggers.

Regime's Psychological Battle Intensifies

Iranian state media reported a statement from the head of public relations at Supreme Leader Khamenei's office warning of "mental warfare" by "the enemy," according to people familiar with the matter. This comes amid ongoing regime efforts to counter December 2025–January 2026 protests through coordinated propaganda and information control.

Protests erupted on December 28, 2025, driven by economic unrest, evolving into widespread demonstrations that were repressed by physical force, internet shutdowns, and a multi-phase information campaign labeling protesters as U.S. and Israel agents. By mid-January 2026, the regime shifted to a "victory narrative" emphasizing national unity and framing unrest as part of broader conflict with the West and Israel. As of February 2026, experts note persistent low-level unrest from decentralized triggers, with propaganda intensifying to prepare populations for potential war.

Information Control and Domestic Impact

The regime employs what it calls "soft war" doctrine, integrating ideological messaging, psychological tactics, media control, and narrative framing to delegitimize dissent as foreign plots. Khamenei's January 9 speech explicitly blamed the U.S. for the unrest. Internet blackouts—described by digital rights groups as the longest in Iran's history—have prevented organization and hidden reported atrocities, including 36,500 incidents reported in just 48 hours between January 8-9.

State media, clerics, Telegram channels, and influencers synchronize messaging to dehumanize protesters domestically while softening rhetoric for global audiences. The regime has criminalized even likes or reposts of opposition content, according to sources monitoring the situation. Protesters and citizens risk severe punishment to bypass controls through hacks or foreign media access, highlighting both domestic intimidation and regime vulnerability.

Regional Tensions and Future Outlook

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently warned of prolonged regional war, while visual propaganda like Enqelab Square murals threatening the U.S. signals perceived pressure from America and Israel. Experts predict an "era of constant unrest" via minor triggers, with the regime potentially deepening narrative ties to external threats for mobilization purposes.

Short-term, the regime appears focused on maintaining control through continued low-level propaganda and repression. Long-term, analysts suggest the psychological warfare campaign may blend domestic repression with regional conflict preparation, particularly given ongoing tensions with Israel and Western nations. The situation remains fluid, with sources indicating the information control apparatus operates around the clock to counter any emerging dissent.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of internet blackouts; they began in late December 2025 and have continued intermittently through February 2026.