• Iran's Vice President calls for preparation for a state of war as domestic protests enter their third week, with over 36,000 protester deaths reported.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump warns of retaliation, including a "massive armada" deployment by January 28, while Iran shifts to a doctrine of preemptive strikes.
  • Economic collapse and stalled nuclear talks exacerbate the crisis, with regional militias crossing borders to aid regime crackdowns.

Iran's Vice President has urged the nation to brace for a state of war, according to recent analyses, amid escalating domestic protests and a U.S. military buildup. The call comes as anti-government demonstrations, now in their third week as of mid-January 2026, stem from economic collapse and have led to significant casualties, with regime forces bolstered by 5,000 Iraqi militia fighters crossing the border.

Efforts to manage the crisis have hit a snag, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning Iran against killing protesters and threatening retaliation, including a "massive armada" deployment by January 28. Trump has canceled talks and urged protesters to seize institutions, while considering military, cyber, and economic options, according to people familiar with the matter. In response, Iran's Supreme National Defense Council announced on January 6 a shift to "active and unpredictable deterrence," reserving preemptive strikes on "objective signs of threat" like military movements or rhetoric, a move that follows direct clashes with Israel in 2024-2025.

Without a deal, the situation could spiral further, as Iran faces deepening economic isolation and no leverage to respond, prioritizing suppression over relief. The regime's new preemptive doctrine invokes UN Charter defenses against threats, framing it as calibrated deterrence against Israel and the U.S., while emphasizing multi-domain retaliation. A source close to the discussions noted, "The stakes are high, with global oil markets already volatile due to prior exchanges."

Trump's erratic rhetoric supports protesters but avoids ground troops, favoring surgical strikes like the June 2025 12-day war on nuclear sites, which remains unresolved as Iran vows rebuilding. Proxies like Kataib Hezbollah threaten "comprehensive war" and suicide attacks on U.S. and Israeli targets, adding to regional combustibility. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful, but experts predict short-term risks include Iranian preemption on ambiguous signals and U.S. strikes on leadership or facilities.

In the background, the protests challenge regime legitimacy, with Trump's encouragement giving hope to demonstrators and diaspora for U.S. intervention, though some view it as misleading "regime-change" hype. The IRGC could entrench post-strikes, suppressing dissidents without U.S. ground forces, and no nuclear or missile concessions are expected. As one analyst put it, "This builds on a shadow war turning overt, with mutual strikes collapsing proxy rules and prompting codified red lines."

Looking ahead, volatility is likely without diplomacy, with Trump's armada signaling potential "phase 2" conflict. Stakeholders include suppressed citizens facing brutality and regional militias aiding crackdowns, while public debate centers on tyranny versus foreign interference. Parallels to the 2025 war justify renewed unrest as an intervention pretext, keeping markets on edge.