• Howard Lutnick, likely U.S. Commerce Secretary under President Trump, emphasizes strict adherence to license terms for NVIDIA (NVDA)'s H200 chip exports to China.
  • U.S. security reviews continue to delay sales as of early February 2026, with Chinese buyers holding off on orders pending final approvals.
  • The Bureau of Industry Security's case-by-case review policy, effective January 13, 2026, requires security proofs including non-reduction of U.S. supply and third-party testing.

Efforts to navigate export controls for advanced AI chips have hit a snag, with NVIDIA's H200 sales to China remaining in limbo amid ongoing U.S. government reviews. According to people familiar with the matter, Chinese customers are withholding orders until licenses are finalized, creating uncertainty for the semiconductor giant's revenue stream from a key market.

Howard Lutnick, the anticipated Commerce Secretary in a potential Trump administration, underscored that both NVIDIA and Chinese buyers must comply strictly with license terms for H200 exports. "This isn't about blanket permissions," a source close to the discussions paraphrased Lutnick's stance, emphasizing that each case will be scrutinized individually to ensure national security isn't compromised. Lutnick's comments come as the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) implements a revised policy requiring proofs like compliance screening of Chinese buyers and U.S. third-party testing—measures that have slowed the approval process.

Without a deal, NVIDIA could face significant delays in tapping China's booming AI sector, where demand for high-performance GPUs remains robust despite geopolitical tensions. The BIS rule, which also covers AMD (AMD)'s MI325X chips, represents a shift from prior blanket bans to a more nuanced approach following Trump's December 2025 announcement easing some restrictions. However, pushback from the State Department for stricter rules has complicated matters, with sales pending as of February 4, 2026. An anonymous official noted that the reviews aim to balance tech exports with supply chain security, potentially boosting revenues without harming domestic capacity.

Industry insiders report that Chinese firms are ramping up domestic production in response, with Huawei and local chipmakers accelerating development to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers. This dynamic adds pressure to resolve the licensing impasse, as prolonged delays might further incentivize China's push for self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, NVIDIA's market leadership in AI chips like the H100 and H200 series faces a test, with recent financials showing growth from AI demand but specific Q1 2026 figures yet to be released.

Attempts to reach NVIDIA for comment were unsuccessful, but analysts suggest that compliance could enable steady exports if security conditions are met. The situation reflects broader U.S.-China trade tensions, with the Trump administration's policy signaling selective easing but heightened scrutiny. As one expert put it, "It's a delicate dance between economic gains and security risks, with no easy answers." Looking ahead, sales hinge on approvals, and any re-tightening could reshape the global AI chip landscape, sustaining the U.S. edge while challenging Chinese advancements.