• Tesla (TSLA)'s Q4 2025 deliveries of 418,227 vehicles slightly exceeded Stifel's forecast but fell short of consensus, declining 15.6% year-over-year amid the expiration of U.S. EV tax credits.
  • Rivian (RIVN)'s production and deliveries met expectations, avoiding significant misses despite ongoing cash burn concerns in a challenging market.
  • Tesla's energy storage deployments hit a record 14.2 GWh, highlighting a bright spot as the company prepares to report Q4 earnings on January 28, 2026.

Tesla's latest quarterly figures landed with a thud for some investors, though analysts at Stifel characterized the results as neutral for the stock. The electric vehicle giant delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, a number that edged past the firm's internal projections but came in about 1% below broader market expectations. More notably, deliveries dropped sequentially from the previous quarter and plunged 15.6% compared to the same period last year, a decline directly tied to the phaseout of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in the United States.

"The expiration of the credit created a clear demand headwind," said one analyst familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We're seeing the impact play out in real time across the industry." Tesla did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the delivery figures, but the company has previously acknowledged the credit's importance to its U.S. sales strategy.

While the auto segment softened, Tesla's energy business provided a counterbalance. The company reported deploying 14.2 gigawatt-hours of energy storage in Q4, a record that underscores its growing footprint in grid-scale batteries. This surge aligns with a broader industry push toward renewable energy infrastructure, even as EV demand faces pressure from high interest rates and slowing global economic growth.

Rivian, meanwhile, navigated the quarter without major surprises. Its production and delivery numbers were largely in line with expectations, according to Stifel, offering a measure of stability for the mid-cap automaker. The company, which focuses on adventure vehicles like the R1T truck and R1S SUV, has been working to scale production at its facilities in Illinois and Georgia while managing cash burn—a persistent concern for investors.

Efforts to reach Rivian for additional comment on its Q4 performance were unsuccessful. However, people close to the company noted that its recent partnership with Volkswagen (VOW.DE), finalized in 2024, has helped bolster its technological and software capabilities, contributing to operational steadiness.

Looking ahead, all eyes are on Tesla's upcoming earnings report scheduled for January 28, 2026. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating and $508 price target on the stock, citing progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi initiatives as key long-term value drivers. "We're awaiting margin details from the earnings call," the firm stated in its analysis. "The energy storage record is encouraging, but automotive profitability will be critical in this environment."

For Rivian, the focus remains on achieving profitability, with the launch of its more affordable R2 model seen as a potential catalyst. Both companies face a competitive landscape reshaped by policy shifts, including potential tariffs on Chinese imports that could benefit domestic players like Tesla and Rivian over rivals such as BYD (BYDDF).

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of Tesla's Q4 earnings report. It is scheduled for January 28, 2026, not January 26.