Richard Griffith
Good afternoon, and welcome to the ADNOC Gas Q1 2026 earnings call. My name is Richard Griffith, and I am the Vice President of Investor Relations at ADNOC Gas.
Next slide, please. As a publicly listed company, I need to remind you of our disclaimer on the slide, which we encourage you to read.
It contains important information, and we advise caution on the interpretation and limits of historical data and forward-looking statements. For reference, the presentation slides are available on our investor relations website.
Next page, please. Presenting today will be our CEO, Fatema Al Nuaimi, and CFO, Peter Van Driel.
I will now pass over to Fatema to talk through our financial and operational performance for Q1 2026.
Fatema Al Nuaimi
Thank you, Richard, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. Q1 2026 tested the resilience of ADNOC Gas.
Despite a highly challenging environment, our equity story foundations remained intact. We benefited from integrated infrastructure, proactive operational planning, and structural protection through long-term gas sales agreement.
We entered the year prepared. We were able to continue meeting domestic demand and protect cash flow despite export constraints.
Importantly, our balance sheet strength and capital discipline give us the flexibility to invest through the cycle and sustain shareholders distributions. ETL and LNG and sulfur prices are all trading above previous levels, which we will be able to benefit from once the Strait of Hormuz opens.
While on Habshan, we are already progressing the reinstatement of impacted facilities. In addition, we have maintained our focus on long-term growth and expect to continue to benefit from global gas demand growth and UAE's recent decision to exit OPEC.
Our long-term growth story has strengthened, not weakened. Exiting OPEC supports higher oil production, which directly increases associated gas volumes, typically richer and higher margins.
Furthermore, as our sales continue to be demand-driven, exiting OPEC should ensure that we are able to align incremental volumes with customer requirements and thus benefit from the higher margins associated with NGLs. The Ta'ziz methanol gas supply agreement anchors 25 years of contracted demand aligned with the UAE's Make it in the Emirates industrial growth.
This is another evidence that we are in an economy that is growing and the demand for gas continues. On our LNG agreements, we also have concluded a deal with TotalEnergies, which is evidence that the market remains trusting ADNOC Gas as a long-term supplier of LNG.
These dynamics build on ADNOC Gas's long-term growth trajectory. Now turning to next, please.
Now turning to Q1 performance. We've delivered $1.08 billion of net income despite 15% lower sales volume, primarily due to lower ETL and LNG contributions following the Strait of Hormuz closure in March.
We ended the quarter with $4.2 billion US dollar of cash, a debt-free balance sheet, and approximately $20 billion of balance sheet flexibility. Importantly, we maintained our dividend commitment, declaring an interim dividend of $941 million, up 5% year-on-year in line with our policy.
Our long-term outlook remains unchanged, with our target of achieving the 40% EBITDA growth by 2029 remaining on track, supported by initiatives discussed on the previous slide. I will now hand over to Peter, our CFO, to walk you through our financial performance in more details.
Peter van Driel
Thank you, Fatema, and good afternoon, everyone. January and February were normal operations, and we actually saw in those two months our volumes increasing in line with expectations.
March, obviously, we started to be impacted by the operational disruption, but I want to stress out that this was actively managed. We pulled forward our shutdowns.
We increased the ullage ahead of the crisis, and we utilized both floating and third-party storage. It is what the CEO said before: we were well-prepared for a crisis that we saw in March commencing.
The actions, they cushioned the early impact in the first quarter, and you can see it on the slide where we, compared to last year, didn't benefit, we had slightly lower oil prices, but the cost of the conflict was really what drove down the Q1 performance. Now in that environment, the pricing provided support.
You can see on the next slide that the closure of the strait had a material impact on the global markets, and that was then the reason why prices were up, and with it, the volatility around the several markets. Brent and JKM and LPG, as well as naphtha, they were down in the first two months of the year, and that was during a time when we still could sell the ETLs, the traded liquids, think about LPG, naphtha, and of course LNG, but then in March, you saw the prices spiking.
The dynamics thereof should become more visible in the second quarter when volumes recover, and of course this is premised also on the Strait of Hormuz opening. Now on the next slide, you see the impact on sales volumes, very much as you would expect, the export markets impacted.
The domestic gas volumes, they were quite resilient, and you see that shows how defensive that segment in our portfolio is. The demand for our products remained strong.
In the first quarter, we saw the strength of the domestic market showing real strong demand both in the power and in the industry sector. When the export routes again open up, the volumes across the products, the export products, to recover.
I want to add that our offshore operations in particular, but also our onshore operations, are well-positioned to quickly ramp up. We are not going to need weeks or months.
We are ready to produce within a short time frame, and that is important because that is the moment you're locking your sales and you benefit from this favorable pricing environment. Next slide.
As I said before, the domestic gas market, you see it on the slide, it is really the stabilizer in our performance. The volumes were 519 TBTU, which is an 11% decline versus the first quarter in '25, and why the volumes were lower is not because we sold less to our customers in country, but you probably know that we also reinject gas, and that gives us revenue, and the balance between reinjection and sales to customers directly changed.
The impact of the lower volume was in the domain of injection gas and not in direct sales to our customers. The EBITDA margins remained resilient, and that reflects the pricing framework in-country, but also the operating efficiency and, last but not least, and this is important, cost discipline.
Right? In times of crisis like this, you want to be on top of your operating expenditure.
In short, the EBITDA for the domestic market was $684 million, which is 9% down year-on-year. What I really want to convey is that this is a temporarily disruption and it had an impact on your volumes, but the underlying fundamentals for this domestic market remain strong and intact.
We have said previously that if you look for a proxy for sales volume growth in the UAE, look at GDP growth, right? The GDP growth of the country remains firmly intact, and that, I think, gives us confidence that we will be able to deliver in country the resilience that we have shown before.
Let's go to the next slide. After domestic market, now let's have a look at the exports and the LNG.
Of course, you see the drop caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure in March very clearly on the slide. What we also did is we benefited in a way from the closure, and we brought a shutdown of our LNG facilities offshores forward.
During the time that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, you actively manage your shutdowns, you bring them forward where possible, and we did exactly that. I said it before: once the Strait of Hormuz opens, we shall waste no time in ramping up our production.
We're talking days and not weeks; we're talking days before we can start loading and produce. The results are obvious in the EBITDA.
It was 28% year-on-year, and it was a total of $979 million, which is the culmination of the volumes that I alluded to and the pricing in January and February. These temporary impacts will be reversed.
Let me be very clear: it is a reversal that will come and is linked to the Strait of Hormuz opening. Let's go to the next slide.
Now we look at the total. We looked at our domestic market, we looked at the export market, and this is the combined picture.
You see that the EBITDA was $1.8 billion, which is 15% lower year-on-year, and that is more or less aligned with the volume reductions, but the margins themselves held steadily, right? It is a volume effect; it's not a margin effect.
Let's go to the next slide. Free cash flow.
What you see is, as I said before, in a crisis, we're extremely focused on cost, but equally on capital discipline. Capital discipline is something I always feel strongly about, and I believe in an environment as we face today, that is even more relevant.
We had $572 million of free cash flow in Q1. You will see that over time, and you start witnessing this in this quarter as well, that our growth of more than 40% EBITDA, plus the production capacity increase of 30%, comes with a increase in capex.
We have committed to $20 billion. That is based on the projects that we currently are constructing, and we've taken FID on.
The free cash flow in Q1 represents a $304 million increase, you see that in the slide, but I'm just pointing out that over time, the capex, given our ambitions, will play a bigger role. Let's go to the next.
I was about to say we've got to the million-dollar question, but it's probably a billion-dollar question when we look at the outlook for the year. If I summarize the Q1 performance, it is impacted by the conflict, but the underlying fundamentals for the business remain extremely strong.
We are moving forward, and the focus is very much for us on the shift to recovery and looking ahead to the remaining quarters in 2026. We want to be transparent, we want to be helpful, hence we have prepared the '26 outlook.
The outlook is very much driven by when the Strait of Hormuz will open up. Secondly, Habshan production facilities that was impacted by an attack and suffered damage.
Thirdly, in our outlook, we have somewhat conservative scenarios for how this may unfold. It is really a short-term reset.
It is purely for the short term, and as I said before, and I may sound like a broken record, the fundamentals of our growth story are unchanged. Now if you look at the map of the UAE, you will see our production facilities.
Offshore, you see Das Island that we discussed, LNG production and sales before. Then you've got Ruwais where we do a lot of production of the rich gases, think about LPG and the naphtha.
Then you've got, scattered around the country, a huge amount of production facilities. One site contains several production lines, or trains, as they're called, right?
They constitute of a number of trains. We have a large spread across the country in terms of production facilities.
Where we were impacted is in Habshan, and Habshan actually is two facilities: Habshan and you've got Habshan 5, if we really want to go into the detail. Let's have a look at the next slide.
Where you see the teams have, I'm really proud of that, done a remarkable job of dealing with attack, as we've seen. We had the incidents on the 3rd and the 8th of April.
Soon, a lot of the capacity could be restored. We're now already back at 60% of the pre-conflict capacity.
Of course, what is extremely important is that you care about the safety of your people and asset integrity. Gas plants, in that sense, they are objects where you want to be extremely careful with assessing impact and restoring again capability.
We will see this ramp-up of recovery. Some units are already up and running again, others take a bit more time to come back into production.
The full capacity will be restored latest by mid-2027. Next slide.
I want to talk about the second quarter now. We have guided in our press release earlier today for a net income of $400 to $600 million.
This is based on the impact of Habshan, but more driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure. You see it on the slide.
If you were to take this slide on a full-year basis, you see that the impact of Strait of Hormuz is even, relatively speaking, bigger than Habshan. You will see the exports driving the lower net income in the quarter.
We have certain expectations around price, and you've seen earlier that these are very favorable. The big question is when can you monetize your sales.
We use ranges, and I hope this will help you to give an idea of how the second quarter will play out. If there is a need to readjust, of course, we'll come back.
For now, this is our conservative view that we have for the relevant quarter, the second of 2026. Next slide.
Let's have a look at the full year. This is what I alluded to before: you see that the impact of Strait of Hormuz really drives the net income performance for the full year.
Having said that, you also see the uptick in pricing, and I'll leave it to you to set the proper deck for the several prices that are in our P&L. This is our range that we then feel comfortable with sharing with you now: $3.5 to $4 billion.
We also plotted the '27 net income according to Bloomberg consensus, and I'm very confident that once the Strait of Hormuz is open, we will meet expectations for that year. Let's go to the next slide.
Balance sheet. This slide demonstrates how strong the balance sheet is, which today is not even used for long-term funding of our capex.
You see that in 20- for 2025 in the first quarter, it was actually a positive balance because of the cash that we had. At the end of Q1, we had $4.2 billion in the bank.
What the slide clearly shows is that if you apply two times net debt over EBITDA, we can borrow up to $20, $22 billion. That gives us the flexibility to invest through the cycle, flexibility to deal with unforeseen circumstances that we experienced today.
Next slide. This last slide, there's one more, but I always like this slide because in one picture, you see what ADNOC Gas is about.
It is about robust growth, and we have always guided for EBITDA to grow by more than 40% by '29. I feel very strongly about being able to reach this target.
The dividend policy underlines that confidence because we have still a dividend policy that we extended to the year 2030, and it grows every year by 5%. We started last year with quarterly dividend, which I believe was welcomed by most of our investors, particularly in the retail segment.
In the coming period, we will pay a staggering $24.4 billion of dividends. Today, we are already the biggest dividend payer on the ADX, and that will continue.
You see on the right-hand side that the distribution will take us from at IPO $3.25 billion to 4.6 in the year 2030. One point is really relevant.
We all know this, but if you talk about dividend remittances, it is about cash and retained earnings. Retained earnings of $6.6 billion are such that we can honor our commitments to the markets.
Next slide, and that is also the last slide. We have updated guidance.
I spoke about it before. If you look at the full year, we came to $3.5 to $4 billion with what we know today.
That translates in certain ranges of your sales volume and your unit margins for the full year. The capex, we kept at $4.5 to $5 billion.
That is what is seen today, and I hope this helps you to understand the performance of the company in the remainder of 2026. With that, I think I hand back to Richard Griffith, our Vice President, Investor Relations.
Thank you.
Richard Griffith
Thank you, Fatema and Peter. We will now go to the Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We will now proceed with the Q&A session.
Just a reminder that participants can ask both text questions and live audio questions. To ask a text-based question, please select the messaging icon .
Type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and press the send button. If you wish to ask a live audio question, press the request to speak button at the top of the broadcast window.
This will be replaced by the audio questions interface. Press Join Queue, and if prompted, select Allow in the pop-up to grant access to your microphone.
If you are using the dial-in number, please remember to press *6 to join the queue to speak. Once you are in the queue, you can listen to the meeting's proceedings whilst you wait for your turn to speak.
I will introduce each caller, and you may go ahead once you hear a beep indicating that your microphone is live. We are currently still waiting for our first audio question, I'll start by reading our first text question.
The question comes from Ahmed Kamal, and it is, "Is the company still able to produce and store until Hormuz is reopening? Where are you now in terms of maximum storage capacity?"
Ahmed has a follow-up question, which is, "Recent reports indicate that a few UAE LNG tankers, such as the Mubaraz, have crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Could these movements signal an early recovery in regional shipping activity, or are they more likely isolated incidents?"
Peter van Driel
Okay. Thank you for the question, Ahmed.
Is the company still able to produce and store? The answer is yes.
I think your follow-up question then is, where are you now in terms of maximum storage capacity? Which is a good question, because you would argue there is a limited capacity available for storing your finished product.
However, we are able to, other than storage, also sell certain products within the Gulf, right? The Arabian Gulf has several points where we can sell product.
Secondly, if you look at a product like condensate, we sell that in the domestic market. The refineries use condensate as a feedstock.
If I look at the number of days that we can continue to produce, it has been, and this is a positive, a moving target from day one. The company puts an awful lot of effort into making sure that the tank top situation, as they call it, is avoided.
I mentioned the example of condensate, but think about, for the petrochemical industry, for example, you can comingle propane with ethane, so that's another outlet. I must say, operations team has done a really good job in managing, avoiding tank top.
Then your other question is about UAE LNG tankers. I'm going to be very short in my answer to you: I'm not commenting on any shipping movements in the strait or in the Gulf or whatsoever.
Next.
Operator
We are currently still waiting for questions to be submitted, I'll allow a few more minutes. Thank you.
Once again, just as a reminder, participants can ask both text questions and live audio questions. To ask a text-based question, please select the messaging icon, type your question in the box towards the top of the screen, and press the send button.
We have a question submitted from Abhishek Kumar: "Question around holiday extension on domestic gas profit taxation. Given the near-term capex is going to be higher due to Habshan damage and other commitments, is it something you are actively discussing with the government?
Please share what you can regarding this in terms of options and a timeline for the decisions."
Peter van Driel
Got the question, Abhishek, thanks for that. I believe that there will be some pressure on near-term capex, and you've got disruptions in the supply chain.
There is sometimes a challenge with getting the crews at site, but at the same time what we shouldn't forget is that we operate our growth project under EPC contracts. The risk of a material increase in capex is fairly limited.
That is the nature of our contracting structure. At the moment, we benefit from the tax holiday in the domestic market, as you have referred, and there is an extension, I think is what you are asking, at the moment is not being discussed.
We simply operate within our contractual frameworks that mitigates, to a large extent, the impact of higher cost. Now, it does not mean it's zero, right?
There are certain subcontractors, smaller contractors, for example, that struggle with the price of diesel, right? Is it in your interest to not compensate them a little bit?
Right, that's open for discussion. The general rule is a contract is a contract.
The EPC contracts are very clear on what we will pay for the services rendered based on certain milestones.
Operator
Our next question is from Scott Darling of Cantor Fitzgerald: "What is the progress of the Ruwais LNG and Miram ramp-up? What is the timing of RGD, Rich Gas Development, Phase 2 and Phase 3 final investment decisions?"
Peter van Driel
Ruwais LNG is the 9.6 mtpa export facility, and when I last looked in February, the progress was actually quite good, ahead of schedule. I expect that the company is able to deliver the project on time, but there might be again short-term lower activity.
Like I said, it's more the manpower, and overall given we were doing really well before the war started, I'm not concerned about it. Miram is interesting because what we did so far was we accelerated a number of shutdowns, but we were also able for Miram to accelerate a number of tie-ins, right?
Miram is the ethane recovery, that facility needs to be connected to other parts of our infrastructure, there we had an advantage. Also at Miram, we did face some issues with crews, and that makes perfect sense, right?
In a time when we have these attacks, the safety of the people is the number one priority, we will not make any compromises on that. Then the other question Scott was asking is about the FID for Phase 2 and 3.
As a reminder, if you look at the Rich Gas Development, the Rich Gas Development enables us to process more gas coming from upstream, from ADNOC. That investment program is extremely timely in my view, especially if you look at the exit from OPEC, right?
If you look at OPEC exit, it means that ADNOC Gas will have more volumes because there are no quota anymore, and also when more oil is produced, it comes with gas, rich gas. It is a positive on more volumes, but it's a double whammy because you also have better quality, richer gas when there are no quotas in place.
Now the first step of the Rich Gas Development is that we debottleneck our facilities, that is ongoing as we speak. Then the second and third phase is when you start to build new infrastructure.
Phase 2 is a new processing plant, and Phase 3 is a new fractionation plant, which is specifically for the export. We'll come back to you to provide you clarity on the costing and the impact on EBITDA, which I expect to be very helpful for our growth story in due time.
Going through the questions then, we have Akash on Habshan. The question is, "Will the repairs be recovered from war insurance?"
ADNOC Gas is part of the overall ADNOC insurance scheme, which gives us a lot of cost advantages, and what I believe is that certain parts of the damage will be covered by insurance, but not the entire amount. We're now in the process, as you can imagine, with assessing the damage, and then you've got the loss adjusters or the evaluators, I think they're called, and then we have more clarity on it.
I do not expect the full amount to be recovered from insurance. Then Remy asked a question on, "Do you foresee support from the parent?"
Right? At this moment, I'm maybe, correct me if I'm wrong, but very optimistic when it comes down to the company being extremely resilient and able to mitigate the financial impact of the crisis.
The balance sheet is not used, right? We're extremely resilient when it comes down to our operations.
The moment the strait opens, it will take 24 hours, 48 hours, and we're up and running with our exports. We do well, I think, in making sure that we are prepared to benefit from the opening, and in the meantime, I mentioned this before, our financial strength enables us to deliver on our promises.
Think about growth, think about dividend. On the margins, again, if you look at the domestic market, we have basically three revenue streams.
One is sales gas that goes to the power sector, you've got ethane that goes to the petchem industry, and then last but not least, you also have reinjection gas. We favored sales gas over reinjection gas because the margins are higher.
In the UAE, it's simple: maximize your methane, C1 sales gas margins at the expense of lower-priced reinjection gas. Then in the total picture, we lost due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions the higher-priced exports, that is where you got higher margins.
It's a combination between what happens in the domestic market, note the reinjection gas having lower margins than the sales of C1 and C2, methane, ethane, and also take into account that the export is of course impacted by the ability or not to deliver those products. Oliver is asking, "Could you elaborate on the levers that you have within the domestic system to manage higher gas demand if the strait remains closed into the third quarter, especially in the absence of the Habshan at full capacity?"
It's an excellent question, because you know that our business is seasonal, what we are preparing for is the higher demand during summer. That is, everybody can see that in our presentations, that the sales volumes are impacted by the seasons, and the company at this moment is able to meet all demand in summer for the UAE market.
Also if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Habshan, as you rightly point out, is not at full capacity, but do not forget that we have more than 30 processing trains in country.
Eldar is asking a question on the joint venture for LNG, and he is asking the question, "Well, you were about to receive a fleet of new LNG vessels, and the question is, are these take-or-pay contracts? If so, is the joint venture paying for the vessels, and how are these utilized at the moment?"
The vessels will arrive, and we will take delivery. You then have a charter rate, which, yeah, you can cause a take-or-pay, but we are quite happy actually to take this new vessels, because do not forget that I said before that we are ready with our LNG production to serve our customers.
That can happen in 24, 24 hours, 48 hours, very short time frame, and if I then have all these new tankers at my disposal, I will not be restrained in any capacity issues. These LNG vessels are there to serve our joint venture exclusively.
If the pricing today is very favorable, you do not want to have any bottlenecks in your sales process, having these vessels is something that we really welcome. Then the impact of, the next question, of Habshan disruption will have on the volumes for domestic gas and liquids in '27.
The short answer is very little. What we gave you is that the full capacity is back in '27, mid '27, but we first of all did not use the full capacity across all our sites.
Remember last year we had an 85% utilization rate, and we can easily switch to other sites if demand increases, which we expect will happen in '27. Next one, Sukhesh is asking about the increase in capex guidance, and you're right to point out that we previously had a range of $4 to $4.5 billion, and we increased it to $4.5 to $5 billion, we added half a billion.
I all of a sudden realize, and thanks for the question, that in the presentation I may have said that we didn't change it. I was wrong, we actually increased it by half a billion, sorry for that.
Now, what we did is, I'm keen on in an environment like this, and never waste a good crisis, to relook at the portfolio of our projects, and we have more than 100, 150 projects roughly. When we engage with you, we look at the big ones.
In our opinion, we believe that we should make a rigorous effort every time to ensure that we only execute the most profitable projects. Especially now, that question is even more profound.
At the same time, I also see that we will have pressure in certain areas because of the disruption in the supply chain, it is a bit difficult for us to give an accurate range, especially, and that's the last reason, I do not know exactly how much the reinstatement of Habshan is going to cost us. The reason, in summary, is basically three reasons: one, capital discipline reduce; two, some maybe distortion of the supply chain may give us the need for a small increase; but last but not least, it's the reinstatement of Habshan.
Then, let's go to Eldar. The domestic gas sales guidance is about 20% weaker pre-conflict.
Which sectors and industries? Again, this comes back to a certain extent the swap between the reinjection and the sales gas into the system.
We also always prioritize the power sector in whatever we do, but the main reason is that we prioritize sales gas over reinjection gas. Don't forget some of our customers are also impacted, right?
Examples where some of the customers had damage and they need some time to restore that. Then Jean-Pierre.
Jean-Pierre is asking, "Can you detail the impact of restoring Habshan capacity? How much is it going to cost, and what is the impact on your net profit unit margins?"
Now, the latter part is easy: I do not expect that the reinstatement of Habshan has any impact on our net profit unit margins, because that is much more driven by the mix of products that you sell. It's too early to give you a feel and an idea on how much the reinstatement costs are going to be.
I'm not going to disclose this, but to give you an idea, internally we use ranges with 50-50% accuracy. That is not good enough at this stage.
It needs to mature further, and only once we got that clarity at a lower uncertainty range, we will communicate this to you. Jessica Bain is asking, "How can the company, ADNOC Gas, benefit from the gas supply with Ta'ziz, and how will it impact sales gas EBITDA margin?"
I said before that the company has been able over the last years to constantly enhance its EBITDA margin, and you see that in the numbers. How do we do it?
There are three ways of doing it: a new contract like Ta'ziz, but any other contract is always positioned that the sales price is above the average of the portfolio; two, when a customer, an existing customer wants an expansion and needs more gas, we will not automatically charge him the same amount of money that we used to in the past, an extension comes at higher price; and thirdly, if a customer, particularly in the power sector, wants more flexibility in offtake because they switched to solar, which does better during the day than at night, that flexibility we can offer, but that comes at a price. Ta'ziz is no exception.
We also will deliver methanol, but that's a very low-margin activity. In general, any new customer that comes into the sales portfolio brings up and improves the EBITDA margin, and you got enough proof points in the last three years to see what I mean with that, because we started the IPO with a range of 33 to 35%, and we were last year 37%, and I believe Q1 was just north of 36%.
Ahmed asked that, "You mentioned that exiting OPEC supports higher associated gas volumes, and can you quantify the expected uplift in production from the policy shift?" It's too early, but I want to repeat what I said: the exit of OPEC means there are no quota on oil production.
Oil production comes with gas, rich gas. Those are the valuable molecules that we export, we benefit indirectly a lot from the OPEC exit.
It will mean that there are no limitations on production, and the company is being configured, and that is why we've got our growth program to absorb these higher volumes, which will enhance the EBITDA, and that is why we're so confident that the 40% target can be achieved. Then I think I addressed the question on the underlying drivers for the reduction of domestic gas consumptions, right?
It will normalize over time, but today we use more sales gas and less injection. We've got a question from Lidia, Fatema.
Fatema Al Nuaimi
Yeah. Lidia is asking, or greeting, "Hello.
Firstly, thank you to the entire ADNOC Gas family for the work and keeping operations going. I know you've touched on it, but perhaps you can take us through the challenges of responding to the crisis.
Then, it's natural to focus on the short term, but the long term really matters as you rebuild. Have you had much chance to think about strategic choices longer term and new opportunities that open up: AI, additional storage, etc.?"
Thank you, Lidia, for the question, and I'm giving Peter some rest so that I'll take this question. When we talk about preparedness, we've established comprehensive scenarios for different situations of business continuity, and they came handy even before the incident.
As we were seeing the tension increasing in the region, we made sure that we are prepared and we're ready, including, for example, keeping the inventories as low as possible so that we can prolong it and keep our operations going for longer. When it comes to the attacks that happened to our assets, I would like, in fact, to share this because maybe we're not translating it as it should be.
ADNOC Gas, as is the main gas supplier to the industry and a main supplier to the energy sector and power sector. At the moment of the attack, we went, because of the fires in some of the assets and because of some other plants tripping, to a record low supply to the network.
We were working on two layers, or two levels: at site, attending to the crisis, and there we've seen the timely decision-making saved not just assets, saved life, as well as the response to the incident itself, while on a more strategic and management level, we were trying to keep the network from collapsing in any scenarios. Lidia, I've been in this industry for more than 26 years now, if anyone explains to me that scenario, I would say we would have a total blackout.
The actions that were taken on the ground saved the supply to the network and made sure that within the first 12 hours, we go back and supply the main customers, and as we speak today, we are almost satisfying 60% of the network. A lot of action that is not seen and not witnessed happening in terms of preparing and responding.
Now, we're not just looking at today, and we're making sure that we're keeping track of all the lessons learned. As we're going through an, I think, unprecedented, and this is underestimating of the situation unprecedented situation today, but we're capturing all the learnings that we've had and we came across.
As simple as our engineering and how we build our facilities, how we structure it for the future, because, as we're also growing our assets, we want to make sure that we build for the future right, and looking at alternative routes so that we're never again in the same situation today. There are multiple things.
AI, you're mentioning AI, AI played a critical role today in the inspection that we're doing for some of these damaged assets. It saved days of work using the robotics and using some of the AI tools that we've already included in our maintenance.
Now, we're not looking short-term, we're focusing as well on the longer term. We're working on a different workstreams: crisis, or working on the business continuity, preparing for the next day, the exact next day, and Peter touched on this.
We want to be ready as soon as the movement is relaxed within the Strait of Hormuz, and we have built that inventory to push towards the market. For the longer term, making sure that we build our projects right, and we build more resilience within our system.
Peter van Driel
Okay. I see another question from Ahmed Kamal.
In the interest of time, let me answer the third one, which is, "How quickly do you expect product prices, propane, butane, etc., to normalize following the Strait of Hormuz reopening?" I believe that at the moment, there is such a huge backlog in meeting demand that the pricing environment will remain quite strong also after the Strait of Hormuz opening.
I emphasize, and Fatema did just the same, right? We want to be ready on day one when the Strait of Hormuz opens and to benefit from that favorable pricing environment, which, in my view, will not normalize in a very short time span.
We are in a position, I think we spoke about LNG vessels in the past, to grab that opportunity. You need to be ready, you need to have your ships in place, and I think LNG is of course priced to Brent, now may come down a little bit because there is some premium in the pricing, but it will be higher from pre-war levels.
Last question then: "On Habshan, you mentioned full recovery by mid-2027. What's the ramp-up profile between now and then, and what will remain offline in 2026?"
I think we will ramp up to the 60 of 70 to 60 to 70% in Q2 or Q3. We want to be very careful with asset integrity.
The AI, Fatema mentioned this, plays a big role in this, and I think in these conference calls, we alluded before how AI helps us in our control rooms, in our maintenance, and again, that is a big lever we're pulling. Then you will go slowly to the 80% capacity.
Again, you will not rely on just one train, one plant. We have sufficient capacity in country, located in different parts.
Each facility has several production trains. We guide you with how it is restored, but let's not forget that we do not depend on one or two trains, in this case on Habshan.
We have a portfolio with 30 trains, and therefore we're able to meet the demand, and I alluded to the summer, when you have the higher, but more importantly, our long-term sales forecast indicate more growth, and that is part of our investment case, that is what we're investing for, and that means that, as I said before, you will see the increase in the dividend by 5% every year, but also the EBITDA growth, we remain very confident that we can achieve the 40% plus growth. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. With no further questions in the queue, we will now hand back to Richard to close the meeting.
Richard Griffith
Thank you very much for attending the call. If you would like to ask more questions, then do reach out to the IR team.
You have our details, both on the website and our individual emails, and we look very much towards meeting all of you in the near future. Thank you for joining the call once again.
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