Auren Energia SA

Auren Energia SA

15.27
BRL
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Nov 10Next Earn

Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 13, 2025

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Auren Energia's conference call discussing the results of the third quarter of 2025.

This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available on the company's Investor Relations on the website, ri.aurenenergia.com.br. The presentation is also available for download.

We would like to inform all participants that following the presentation, we will begin the Q&A session. Further instructions will be provided at the start of the Q&A.

Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Auren's management and on information currently available to the company. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, as they refer to the future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur.

Investors, analysts, journalists should be aware that macroeconomic conditions, industry dynamics, and other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Joining us on this conference call today, Mr.

Fabio Zanfelice, CEO of Auren, and Mr. Mateus Ferreira, CFO and IRO.

The Investor Relations team is also with us today. I would like now to hand over to Mr.

Fabio Zanfelice, who will begin the presentation. Please, go ahead, Fabio.

Fabio Zanfelice

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you very much for attending for earning results for the third quarter.

This is our agenda: let's show the highlights, then energy market, operational performance, commercial performance, financial performance, and also the beginning of our corporate restructuring, and then closing remarks, and then the Q&A. Now let's see the highlights of the third quarter.

This is a very interesting quarter in terms of our results, because on one hand we are very pleased with what we have presented and achieved in terms of resulted with the integration of AES, and it is a quarter where exogenous events have impacted our performance. We are closing with 77— 770— 773 million in EBITDA and an accumulated also in 3 billion in the last 12 months, year-to-date 3.8 billion reais, it's a very important result.

Here in the highlights, we would like to call your attention to the conclusion and the final integration of AES Brasil with synergy captured for the period, we will refer to that further down the road, and maybe the most important topic here today is that we have reached in this quarter almost 93.4% of availability of our wind assets, and in 2024 we had 70%, a very important advance in the performance of our assets and synergy capture and in the conclusion in record time of an integration of AES Brasil. Our operational performance, this was a quarter in which curtailment impacted our results.

We will give better details. What we should highlight here that except for the curtailment effects, the company would have reached in its wind assets 98% of our certification prospective, it is important to highlight this point because our performance as we heard previously, the assets would be in terms of wind assets and in availability are doing very well.

Another highlight is the conclusion of our liability management. We have concluded an important step in terms of paying our debts and also an issuance.

We have elevated for another 10 years with a very competitive cost, 2.2%. The leveraging was not reduced in almost one time since the 2024 last quarter, and it has remained a stable with the EBITDA.

We also like to highlight the impact of our diversified portfolio with modulation gains that were quite expressive: 66 million reais for the year, and we have reached 124 million, which allowed us the compensate the curtailment impact to 150 million for this quarter. On one hand, we had a negative effect of the curtailment, but the other side, we have positive effect of modulation compensating this reduction of the results and the exogenous variable.

Another important factor also mentioned and highlighted as a relevant factor was the approval by ANEEL of the compensation of excluded investments in CESP, namely Jupiá, Salto de Paraibuna, with a total of 500 million reais. This is a historical value, posted it in 2015, and now we will follow the process of the public hearing of the Ministry of Mines and Energy which defined index of the adjustments of these values for the today's value.

Finally, we had the approval 2 weeks ago of MP 1304, extremely important with regards to the curtailment issue. Another important factor for the company was also the mention and definition of the criteria for the renewal of the concessions for the hydro plants.

This is important because part of our company's portfolio has the concession that will be due in soon. Now for the energy market, the highlights: this quarter in terms of performancemance of the ENA was better than the previous quarter, 21% below LTA, but the great gain in this page here is the demand side that has also contributed for the systemic effects of curtailment.

We had a quarter in which the energy was 4% below the estimate of PNS, 3 GW average, and the average curtailment was 5.6 average in the quarter, 3 GW less in terms of a load with a very important impact, and the same energy was 1% lower than the consumption of the current same quarter last year. The impact of a temperature lower than average, and maybe this has been the lowest winters we had in the last 10 years, this also impacted the system's operations.

On the next slide, we will talk about our reservoir levels. Also due to this lower demand, and also a change in the price formation that we had in January, the storage of the system was maintained above the number observed in 2024 and 17 percentage points above the average for the last 10 years.

We are very comfortable in terms of reservoir levels. On the other side, we had the GSF reaching 56% against 79% in the first quarter 2024, and we also had the impact of a lower consumption, an increase of microgeneration, and also with energy dispatch or thermal dispatch that given the short-term price was above.

The most important factor here was in the seasonality of physical guarantee that in this quarter was 54 average GW against 49.3 for the same quarter in the previous year. This is a greater allocation of physical guarantee, which allowed us to the GSF depth to be bigger.

On the next slide, we have mentioned this factor of lower hydropower, and left, we can see the 178 GW in consumption against 77 for this quarter with an lower average gigawatts for this quarter and a participation of hydro power in 49% in this last quarter against 53% in the third quarter of 2024. If you can see on this slide, you can see that wind generation is stable in terms of its share, and thermal, as we heard, due to the dispatch.

Maybe the greatest villain here in this process was distributed generation, which participated with 9% of our generation in this third quarter 2025 against 6% on the third quarter 2024. On the right side of the chart, we can see the evolution of our PLD, which will show the change of the methodology of price formation.

In the same period last year, the average was 170 reais per megawatt hour, and this for the third will be 252. The volatility was approximately 31% in third quarter 2024 and now 38%.

However, in average, the volatility was bigger in absolute values in this quarter compared to the previous one in 2024. This will also justify the impact of curtailment in our financial management, and we had an increase of almost 40% of PLD in this period for the third quarter of 2025 against the same quarter in 2024.

The assets that we are sold in terms of the free market finish with the same basis considering the same opportunity of curtailment. They end up being more impacted by the need of higher PLD.

Very well, on the next slide, we have the curtailment issue. On the left side, we present the total curtailment month by month with a total of 5.6 average GW-hour, one of the largest ones in all the quarters in the last few quarters.

The composition here: 53% of this curtailment was due to energy issues, 29 for 18% for electric issues. We have on the right side a little bit of what would be the curtailment if we did not have a deviation of the load in terms of the projection and also if we didn't have the expected MMD.

Therefore, the average curtailment was 23.1% in this quarter, and it would have been 15% if these two variables had not happened. We would like to highlight this movement because truly the energy consumption, the lower energy consumption had an important impact in the centralized renewable for this quarter.

On the next page, we are going to talk about our operational performance from the standpoint of our hydro power, a generation that is slightly lower as we presented previously with a smaller participation of hydro in the total production of the system in this third quarter 2025. For the wind power, discounted the curtailment impact, if we did not have the curtailment impact, we had generate 98% as I said before.

We have an availability of the assets from AES plus the other assets of around 95% in this third quarter. Solar power, the most impacted area with a daily profile, we had a generation of 71% of P90.

If it weren't for the curtailment, we would be very close to the P50 of generation with a very high availability. On the next slide, we are presenting the evolution of the acquired assets availability after the acquisition of AES.

We left 89.3% in January this year and we have reached 93.4% by the end of September. A slight drop in September in comparison with August, some maintenance issues we had in this last month, but the highest highlight here is that for every 1% of recovery of the availability, we have added 20 million reais as a potential margin.

From January till now, we had 4% and so we generated a potential of revenue of 80 million reais. Also this same availability when measured in January 2024, which was pre-AES acquisition, was of around 70%.

Therefore, in 1 year and 9 months, the company had the ability of recovering almost 23.4% of availability in these assets, and this is something that should be celebrated by the company and recognized the ability of maintenance and all the other areas that have supported in this recovery. On the next slide, we have the benefits of the diversified portfolio, presenting on the chart the profile of generation compared to PLD, it's an average PLD for this quarter, showing the company's ability of capturing extraordinary revenues given the profile of the short-term price.

In this quarter, as I said, we had 66 million reais in impacts of modulation positively, and in these first 9 months, 125 million. The total impact of curtailment for the quarter was 196 million, and the impact of modulation was bring net result of exogenous effects over the result of the company of 130 million reais.

On the next slide, we have the energy balance with not many variations with regards to what was presented in the last quarter, basically 36 megawatt hour average as a result of a high-production negotiation from our Jaíba Solar Park. The company is well hired and contracted for this year in the years to come.

Here the profile that you already know in terms of a greater availability in the longer term where the company will benefit of the reviewing of the long-term prices according to the market. The market had recognized that the greater price for expansion has changed and the new projects will only be implemented if we have a better cost for expansions, which also makes market prices to be revised in the future, and where the company has a more uncontracted conventional energy.

On the next slide, we will talk about our financial performance. Therefore, I would like to pass the floor to Mateus.

Mateus Ferreira

Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for participating in another earnings call with regards to our quarter's results.

As we heard in the beginning, we had an important impact in terms of GSF curtailment. We closed the quarter with 773 million reais in EBITDA, representing a decrease of 10%, 90 million reais with regards to the same quarter of 2024.

This drop is justified by two main reasons: we had a result in the commercial result in this fourth quarter of When we make the adjustment for the contract that was migrated from the previous quarter, the result would have been positive in 25 million reais, which would make a difference of 50 million reais in the results for 2024. We already had said in the previous quarters, the company had a very strong result in the commercialization.

Most of the result of that was concentrated in the first quarter, which will justify difference difference between the first quarter '24 from the second quarter 2025. When we see the result of commercialization for the first year, we see 124 million reais in results in line with the previous years.

Another difference of around 50 million reais with the impact of curtailment of GSF for the quarter. When we consider the next page, the positive side of the financial performance of the quarter was the continuous reduction of the operational expenses or PMSO of around 58 million reais.

Since the closing of the transaction with AES, this value has already reached 212 million reais, and we will continue strong and pursuing the number of the 150 million reais that we have been referring to since the very beginning of this year, which continues steadily to reach this guidance of PMSO. On the next slide, regarding leveraging, as it was said on Auren Day, we will now experience a more stable period of leveraging.

Previous quarter had a 4.9 times the EBITDA debt, meaning a net debt of 19 million reais. As Fabio said, we at the end of this quarter, all the liability management meant issuing of over 14 billion reais in debt, and we closed this quarter with prepayment of 100% of that for that payment.

In less than 1 year, we paid what was expected to be paid in 4 years. We now have an average term of 7 years, and it is a very competitive in terms of the rate, it's CDI minus 2%.

Now the corporate restructuring: this is something we've been addressing since the closing with AES, and now in this third quarter we started what is expected to be a long process and that should be concluded during 2026. In sum, what we'll be doing is concentrate all those assets of the company that are concentrated in CESP and Auren Operações in only one vehicle.

CESP today has capacity of 2,000 and will go to 7.2 MW. All the hydropower assets of the company will be under CESP.

It is important to say that this has not been fully approved, both in terms of governance and also regulations. In August we started the waiver process, and so we are now giving full disclosure of the goals.

The objective of this reorganization is both because of two publicly traded companies, Auren Participações and Auren Operações, more efficiency of the financial liabilities of the company as well. Now

Fabio Zanfelice

I will give it back to Fabio to conclude our presentation. Now the key takeaways.

I would like to highlight in terms of regulatory environment, MP 1304, I believe to be very important for the company as well, which is the topic of curtailment. We now have a definition of the extension of the term.

We expect that the past numbers because of reliability will be around 250 million, and once it is enacted as law, we then have the opportunity to acknowledge that since now. Then our integration was in a record time.

Since the acquisition of AES, all the integrations and organizational adjustments, everything was completed. The most important fact was recovering the wind farm assets.

The company is now delivering a better performance with 95% availability, which was our goal for the end of the year. The synergy captured was announced, and that we have already captured 212 million since November '24.

We will close the year with 250 million, as we had announced in the beginning of the year. Maximum focus on deleveraging.

We will continue with this priority, and all the team will be fully focused in this way. Finally, CESP compensation is 500 million, as we've said, and it is a very important moment in which this will be received by the company.

Now we will be waiting for the Ministry of Energy to announce and so that we can wait the adjusted amount following the correction factor and the payment schedule of that amount. Now I would like to start the Q&A session.

Operator

We will now start Q&A session. If you'd like to ask questions, please raise your hand.

After your question is answered, you can lower your hand and therefore leave the line. We will start with the first question from Banco Safra.

Hello, everyone. I have two questions, and thank you for the opportunity.

The first one is about the energy trading strategy. I would like to hear from you, considering the results of this quarter and comparing that with the energy balance that is contracted, I would like to understand if you plan to make any adjustments in this energy trading strategy that you've been adopting in the last quarters, and also looking forward to the next quarter, can we expect volatility in the results of energy trading when we consider the previous quarters?

Also, one second topic, that is the company's interpretation of what was proposed in the MP 1304 regarding the curtailment. What is the dimension of the curtailment that will be compensated?

I would like to hear from you how you see that. Thank you.

Fabio Zanfelice

Thank you for your question, Daniel. Regarding energy trading, the first thing I would like to highlight is in the previous quarter, we said that the major results would be concentrated in the first half of the year, and that the second half would not have very significant results, because in the first half, the results were really positive and surprising.

Now, regarding the company's strategy, it remains the same, which is to benefit from the best moment to sell in short positioning and to take advantage of this opportunity to contract with the lowest possible prices. Now, there were some market factors that give the impression that there would be some change in the strategy, but that is not so.

The market expectations were lower, and regarding the forecast in the beginning of the year, the need for energy acquisition was higher than we expected. We also had the understanding that it was not a moment to reduce PLD since March this year, the company believed it didn't make sense to lock a positioning of those amounts.

That said, the strategy remains the same. There were some external factors that had an impact, and the trading company has this same strategy of making decisions when it's the right moment.

This is now a unique moment. It is not time for energy acquisition.

Storage is higher than historical numbers, higher than 2024. The north region also high storage, and hydrologically, the scenario to be expected is about the same, leading to spill in the north.

We know that from now to the beginning of the year, prices tend to go down, especially in the first quarter and also second. The positioning of the company now regarding any debt for 2026 or any trading, the strategy remains the same.

As for curtailment, depending on how the MP 1304 moves forward, especially in the free assets market, we will need the energy amounts to face that situation. The trading strategy will be guided by that.

We will be making adjustments in our positions throughout the year of 2026. The compensation coming from the MP 1304, there are two understandings.

We believe that based on the past and based on the reliability, and now a different understanding that is the conditioned compensation. Depending on how it is enacted, and if it is enacted in whole, now the Ministry of Energy must define the rules regarding the offer of renewables.

We are now waiting for the Ministry of Energy to determine how the MP will be enacted. We are working with several different scenarios, and we will have to wait for the law to be passed and so that we have a better understanding of how the compensation will be.

Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Mr. Cavendish from XP.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity.

My question is also regarding MP 1304. We see that this is still being discussed.

We don't know if it's going to be vetoed, in case it is, we don't really understand how the compensation of futures will be and the classification criterion. This 250 million, is this enough for the company not to have to resort to legal action?

We know that there are some reserve energy contracted and there's a positive forecast because of other gains in the market because of those reserve contracts. I'd like to understand how you see the magnitude, if those numbers will avoid having to resort to legal measures, if that is equal or more to 250 million in case there is a veto.

Fabio Zanfelice

Thank you for the question. This is a systemic analysis.

It is beyond the company's understanding. The legal measures will depend on the industry as a whole.

It is beyond the company's strategy. Depending on how it evolves, the company will make its decision.

More appropriate would be for this to be addressed and solved. If there's a risk of veto, what will be vetoed or not, and what will be then regulated, and this is part of my previous answer.

Once it is known, the company will make its assessment in terms of what makes more sense and if we should or should not take legal action. We will have to wait and see how this will evolve so that we can have a firm position in terms of what we will be doing.

Kevin Disch

Thank you.

Operator

The next question from Mr. Pedro Leite from SulAmérica.

You can ask your question.

Pedro Nirschl

Can you hear me?

Operator

It's a little low.

Pedro Nirschl

Is it better now? We can hear you.

I would like to ask a question about trading and also MP 1304 again, because the beginning of the inspection rating is being charged, and also how the regulation might impact the margins, which is not really large. I would like to hear how you see this impacting the next quarter, if something should change or not.

Fabio Zanfelice

What you said is really correct, because our margins are really tight, and they 1.5% increase of revenues is too much considering those tight margins. That will have to be relayed to the prices, and to be honest, those contracts might migrate to the generators, because those rates are already paid for ANEEL, and it wouldn't really make sense to transfer that and then pay for that again.

There's two different ways to move forward. If that does not prosper, we might have to make an adjustment of prices, and those that already have a structuring of generation and trading might have to migrate that to the end consumer.

We know that this is not easy, considering a big client's, there's contracts, and in the retail, you can't just transfer that to prices automatically, we will have to see how the market will adjust.

Operator

Thank you. This is the end of our Q&A session.

I would like to give the floor to Mr. Fabio for his final remarks.

Fabio Zanfelice

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your willingness to be part of this session. This quarter, we had the impact of external factors, but we are very happy to see that what is under our control, what is managed by our company shows that we're closing the quarter with very significant results.

We are now expecting to see how the MP 1304 will be regulated and enacted so that we can move forward. Once again, thank you for your presence, and I hope to see you all in the beginning of the year for the results of the fourth quarter.

Thank you very much.

Operator

This call is over. We would like to thank everyone for your presence, wishing you all a good day.