Auren Energia SA

Auren Energia SA

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Nov 10Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 4, 2026

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference by Auren Energia for the results for the fourth quarter 2025. This conference is being recorded and you can access the recording at ri.auren.com.br.

The presentation is also available for download. We inform all the participants that after the presentation we will start our Q&A session.

More information will be given in the beginning of the Q&A. Before we move forward, I would like to make the disclaimer that these are the suppositions of Auren and the current information available for the company.

It might include uncertainties that have to do with future events, therefore they depend on circumstances that might or not happen. Investors, analysts, and journalists should take into consideration that events related to the macroeconomic environment, to the segment, and other factors can make the results be different than those that are shown here in the different perspective declarations.

In this conference, we have Mr. Fabio Zanfelice, CEO from Auren, and Mr.

Mateus Ferreira, CFO and IRO. Also, the investor relations is also present here.

I would like to pass the floor to Mr. Fabio Zanfelice, who will start the presentation.

Thank you. Fabio, you have the floor.

Fabio Zanfelice

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

It is a pleasure to have you here with us in another call. It is important, of course, to all of us to conclude the year of 2025.

It was a very important year for all of us. These are the first highlights for 4Q '25 with an EBITDA of R$4 billion, adjusted EBITDA that is very important for us, very robust considering all the systemic effects of the current electric system impacted by curtailment and both wind and solar energy.

We are very pleased to report a very important figure even in this challenging scenario. All the other highlights for this quarter, we have consolidated our synergies, a very positive one.

We closed the year with R$280 million in captured energy after acquiring AES Brasil, more than twice what we have announced when we signed this acquisition, which was R$120 million at the time, we went above R$160 million than the first figure that was disclosed to the market. This integration took 10 months to be completed.

It's a record time, half of the average of integrations that we see in the market. As we highlight with results that are above expectations, both in synergies as well as operation performance, which is the second highlight here, we reached by the end of December 95% of availability in incorporated assets.

We anticipated in one year our target of recovery of the performance of these assets, and I would like to remind you that this figure in January 2024 was around 77%. It is a recovery of almost 20 percentage points.

For each percentage point, it's R$20 million potential plus in these assets. Another important highlight is if we exclude the curtailment the figures in 2025, our generation will go above the P50 for the certification with 102% of the P50, which reinforces both our recovery, an important recovery for the asset performance, as well as the accuracy of the certification of generation of these assets, which was redone once we purchased AES.

It is an important figure indicating again a very robust portfolio in the wind power that we have here in our company, with the total portfolio at Auren. With regards to the portfolio itself, the positive effect of diversification, we have closed the quarter with R$207 million in impact in curtailment.

However, we also announced R$70 million in gains in modulation, once again showing that 34% of the curtailment effect was mitigated by the flexible portfolio the company holds, mainly by the hydropower and also the wind power that some assets have a very well-aligned profile with the wind power profile. For the year, the curtailment will total of R$530 million, but the modulation was also able to mitigate part of it with R$196 million with a net effect in modulation and R$334 million.

Once again, this shows that even though the company is more exposed to curtailment, thanks to our diversified portfolio, we have the resilience to support this with our hydropower portfolio. Another news that I would like to highlight has to do with the management of our pension liability.

This has come to us through CESP. We added a very small part also of the AES requirement.

We had a total for the two companies R$1.800 million in terms of pension liability. We were able to approve 6.28% of actuarial rate, and we also worked in immunization of this asset for our pension fund, which therefore allowed us to have a reduction of R$991 million in terms of actuarial risk.

The most important fact, not only these expressive numbers, that the company is able to reduce its annual payment in R$54 million in contributions to cover this liability in 2026. This is a very important information that has to do with structural risk reduction.

Another highlight, not only for the quarter, but for the whole of the year, once we concluded the integration of AES, the company is now ready with solid basis in order to build our future. A focus in 2026 would be to refine the processes of the company.

Of course, after this integration, there are still opportunities in terms of value capturing through our processes. We will also conclude our society integration or corporate restructure that was completed in 2026, and this will be the purpose in 2026.

We will talk about this later. There's a slide on this.

Then we will continue to work with our processes and with a focus on operational excellence. To conclude, on the regulatory area, the quarter was highlighted by the publication of Law 15,269, an important landmark for the sector with the treatment of the legacy of curtailment and some addressing of this curtailment in the future.

I guess everybody knows that we did not reach exactly the purpose or the objective of the wind power sector. However, it is a reduction of our uncertainties and a little bit of concern in terms of curtailment.

It will not solve our issue 100%, but will certainly advance some of our objectives. This is an important highlight for the last quarter.

Now back to our agenda, let's look into the energy market. The last quarter was a bit challenging.

We recorded a ENA or affluent energy of 100%, there was a recession in the hydro sector. This was a frustration of 18 average MW and even more so it was 13 GW below what we observed in the fourth quarter in 2024.

This is an adverse scenario, so that the reserves level, which had a better levels previously reached 24%. This reservoir is even considered optimal because it's 9% above the last 10 years average, but still it's 8% below what we had in 2024.

So 2025 ended with a less favorable reservoir levels than what we had in 2025. On the next slide, we will have a look at the impact of this last quarter.

Of course, with our hydropower a little bit below what we expected, we saw in thermoelectric gap and this because of what was introduced in 2025 and also for the change in parameters increasing risk aversion in terms of reservoir. There was a change in model, unfavorable hydropower, and this will have an impact of 17% in the composition of the mix above what we observed in the last quarter of 2024.

In the whole set of the results, we have more impact and we have a greater contribution of distributed generation and also solar and wind power, which brought about a reduction of the participation in hydropower in the generation for that quarter, to 125% percentage for down to 52. Another important factor and more determining is that the load, the consumption for the fourth quarter was below the consumption of '24 and below the expectation given by ONS.

Of course, this brought about what you can see on this chart on the right side, which was the observation of GSF of 67% against 80% in the fourth quarter 2024. Just to highlight even more this explanation with regards to GSF, the profile of seasonality was also different in the last quarter of '25 compared to '24, contributing for a GSF that was below what we observed in the fourth quarter '24.

On the next slide, the consequence of everything we've talked about, low hydropower below what was expected, in terms of price formation models, we had in the last quarter an average of the short-term prices above what we observed in the fourth quarter '24. The average was R$225 per megawatt-hour against R$218 on the fourth quarter '24.

As you can see on the chart on the right, volatility, intraday volatility measured by the hourly prices was close, it was 86% in the last quarter of '24 against 73%. However, on the last quarter '25 was much better distributed.

It was better distributed throughout the quarter, given that in '24 we had an important peak in October '24, bringing greater volatility to this chart. This is the new market reality, more volatility on the intraday basis and the level a bit higher in terms of gains and losses in terms of changes in the weather, the climate.

On the next slide, we're going to talk about curtailment. This is the variable that will impact even more the impact of this company.

On the last quarter '25, there was a reduction in wind power of the order of 23% and 23% in power. This impact was, as we saw in the chart on the left, it was more pronounced in the month of October, and part of this impact also is a result of wind powers be above what was expected in October, but also with impact of the MMD, micro generation, also the frustration of demands, as we saw on the right side chart.

The 23% here in the reduction of generation represents 5 average GW on the quarter. If we had a demand as expected, as ONS had projected, we would have a reduction of this value in 2 average GW.

If there was not a contribution above the expected, we will also have a cut of 1 average GW. This will show that if these two effects did not happen, curtailment would be 30% lower what was observed, going from 13 to 16% and 5 average GW to 3 average GW.

This is a specificity. We know that this is the impact of GD that is here to stay, but the demand also had an important role in frustrating the consumption and it was a determining factor for the curtailment we observed in the last quarter of 2025.

Now we're going to look into operational performance. We had on the hydropower generation a reduction in this fourth quarter compared to '24, as we saw, in around 11%, as we explained, due to renewable source and frustration in terms of demand.

On the wind power, also impacted by curtailment with a reduction of 5%, and I would like to highlight that if we considered the level of curtailment we observed, we would have generated above P50, showing that the wind power was pretty good on the fourth quarter. We generated 33 We would have generated above 23 MW above the certification, showing that we have the ability, as we have highlighted, the quality of our portfolio for our company, as well as wind resources aligned with our expectations.

In terms of solar power, also a reduction with regards to the 2024, a bit below what we expected in P50, 10 average MW due to a lower solar resource. Important is here the different sources here: we had hydropower 57%, 6% solar, and 30% wind power.

On the next slide, we see the highlight of the evolution of the availability of acquired assets in the process of AES requirement. As we said, we concluded 2025 with 95% of availability, 94.6% to be exact, an average of availability 11% 11 percentage point above 2024.

2024 had an average of 84%, but in January, this number was 77%. If we look from January '24 to December '25, the recovery was quite expressive.

A highlight to some parks that are very important, such as Tucano, from 80 to 88%. Tucano is a wind park that has the 5X turbines.

This is an equipment that has presented issues around the world and we were able to have an important recovery for this equipment, and Ventos from 88 to 95%, reaching almost its ideal level of availability, and Cajuína also from 93 to 97%. Therefore, we can show that this recovery is important and also homogeneous throughout the company assets.

As I said in the beginning, every 1% improvement, every 1 percentage point on availability, we add a potential of R$20 million in terms of revenues for our wind power assets. On the next slide, we will now talk about the systemic effects on the portfolio.

We also talked about this in the beginning of presentation. The impact of the curtailment was R$270 million, modulation contributed to reducing this impact in R$70 million, which resulted in a net curtailment of R$137 million for the quarter.

One important data we have here for this chart on the right side has to do with the evolution of the spread throughout 2025, since 2023 actually, considering the observed scenario, actual one, the pink line, and the scenario if we do not have a curtailment. We can see that the curve for wind power, more specifically for the adding of modulation was very important, and we can see the increase in time because of the effect of curtailment.

This just comes to show that the curtailments are happening at the middle of day, both the profile of certain parks, as well as the generation will also contribute to the modulation gain. What we would like to highlight more specifically is curtailment has been happening in certain hours of the day where you have a lower demand.

This will also contribute when we consider the scenario, when we look into the market, this curtailment in time, it's not exactly the same average of future market prices. It happens at lower prices.

On the hydropower, it also happened the same way. When we look on the chart in the middle, it reached 18 R$18.50, and also the solar power has the same profile, not as big, but also an important reduction of the impact of modulation in this last quarter when compared to the scenario without the curtailment.

Next slide, we will now discuss the commercial performance. The consolidated performance of the company, we see a consolidation in the first 3 years and the last earnings release, we see the consolidation of an average of 169 MW of self-production contracts and also the auction for selling in the Northeast market to reduce the risk for the company in view of the price differences in the market.

Regarding purchases, it was an average of 120 MW purchased for 2026 and also 42 MW to reduce the short position of the company. We see that the level has reduced and remaining the same for the long term.

Now for the next slide, I'll give the floor to Mateus.

Mateus Ferreira

Thank you, Fabio, and good morning, everyone. We now have the financial results of the company, an adjusted EBITDA of R$1 billion, an increase of 13% compared to the previous quarter, an excellent performance if we compare with the 3Q of '25 as well.

The adjusted EBITDA, because of the recognition of some prudent investments, if we excluded that positive impact, the EBITDA would be very similar to what we experienced at the 4Q of '24. In the next slide, as Fabio said in the beginning of the presentation, our synergies led to a very strong performance.

Since the acquisition of AES Brasil, we have now led to R$279 million in synergies, surpassing the R$250 million what was informed by the company at the time of the acquisition. We're very happy with those results, and now for 2026, our concentration is to focus on that same financial performance for the company so as to have a readjustment of costs that I will detail in the next slide.

As we had foreseen, we are now in this plateau period after a leveraging period in the third Q, and now for the fourth Q, 4.8 leveraging was our forecast, very significant reduction compared to our last prediction and very well in line with the previous Q. The gross debt of the company is of R$1.5 billion, meaning very competitive costs.

Our average cost is CDI minus 0.8%. We have concluded all the liability management of the company.

As you can see to the left in the bottom, no concentration within a year in terms of what was forecast. The average term is very comfortable.

It's on average 7 years, and our cash position, which is enough to cover for the next 3 years. Next slide, we will now address some additional measures to create value.

There are three main topics that are well-known. The first one is the simplification of the corporate structure.

We keep on working in this field. We are working on the waves of some debts of the company, something that should be concluded by April so that we can move on to execution.

In simple terms, this means to concentrate all the hydroelectric assets of the company under one single vehicle. To the left, you can see the current structure compared to what it will be post restructuring.

We will be eliminating two publicly traded companies. We'll have a better cash management.

In 2026, we will be working in a new front so as to conclude all that work by the end of the year. The zero-base budgeting is another strong focus.

This is a very significant structural change in the company, and one of the goals is to seek greater cost optimization, leading to numbers below the inflation. Thirdly, as Fabio has said, the immunization of pension liability.

We were able to approve some very important interest rates, and we have also worked on reducing the actuarial deficit in terms of the pension liability. It is very significant, and it's R$55 million in costs that will be avoided.

Now I will give the floor back to Fabio to conclude our presentation.

Fabio Zanfelice

The main closing remarks to conclude our presentation are: Our company is very well-positioned to capture market opportunities. We have a very comfortable term, and we are still working on what we believe to be the marginal expansion cost.

These are positive numbers to us. Leveraging is something that was followed by users very closely, and we are in a downward trend, and we expect to achieve optimum levels in the next two or three years.

As for the regulatory field, for 2026, we expect a reduction in the indexation, especially with the prudent investments in CESP. As for capital allocation discipline, we remain very disciplined, working to generate value for shareholders and bringing returns that are above the expected, as, for example, the battery auction.

We also had auction of capacity where Porto Primavera was not included. There were some discussions by the environmental agency.

The flow and outflow of that asset was under discussion, and the decision was not to include Porto Primavera in that auction. It is definitely not something final, and we expect that plant to be included.

We will now be addressing that in more details. As for corporate reorganization, as Mateus has mentioned, all those assets will be under one single vehicle, which is CESP.

This is something very interesting because this will be just like prior to the acquisition, and meaning a very smart structuring of the company. Finally, in 2025, one of the most important achievements was the successful completion of AES integration.

We were able to follow through with all the results we had forecasted, and I would like to express my thanks to the shareholders and to the board because even in view of a very challenging year and the regulatory challenges, we know you all contributed a lot to our success. I would also like to thanks our partners and suppliers, and especially all our team in the company.

This was a very positive year. We learned a lot with the integration of AES, and we know that everyone worked hard so that we could now present such results to you all today, ladies and gentlemen.

Thank you very much. We will now move on to our Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. We will now start our Q&A session.

If you would like to ask any questions, please click on raise hand button, and once your question is answered, please click to lower your hand. To ask your questions, click on raise hand, and please wait while we gather all the questions.

Our first question was asked by Mr. Ricardo Bello from Safra Bank.

You can ask your question.

Ricardo Bello

Good morning, everyone. I have two questions.

The first one is about the curtailment level. Could you share more about the level with you see for wind and solar farms and also for the solar assets, we see a lot of evolution compared to the previous Q, and I would like to know more about the strategy moving forward.

Is this profile structural, or are we to expect something different for the next quarter or the next year as a whole?

Fabio Zanfelice

Regarding curtailment, to give you some more details, we see some more curtailment for January, but because of all the rain in February, we see that wind energy was lower than what we expected and therefore curtailment was also under the expected, but that should be something particular to the first quarter. We see that all the operations that we are carrying out led to very strong operations and very positive prices in our long-term contracts.

As for our company strategy, what I can share is what I've shared in the presentation. You see that there's a higher level of contracting and this has been so since we acquired AES.

There's higher leveraging, we were able to reduce risk because of any exposure in view of our positioning. In the long term, as we said, our expectation is that the long-term prices will be more in line with the long-term expansions.

We will be observing how these prices behave, especially because there's not that much liquidity for significant operations in the future. This will now give us more time to reflect on those operations.

That's structural. Now as to answer your question, in terms of operations, we are now, as always, paying close attention to arbitrage and price volatility.

We're always capturing that kind of information to capture opportunities. Basically, these are the guidelines we've been following for our company.

Ricardo Bello

Thank you very much. Your answer was very clear.

Thank you.

Operator

We are now closing the Q&A session and I would like to give the floor back to Mr. Fabio for his closing remarks.

Fabio Zanfelice

Thank you all, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending one more earnings release call.

I thank you all for your time and hope to see you all in our next earnings call. Thank you, everyone.

Have a nice day.

Operator

This conference call is now ended. Thank you all for your participation and have a nice day, everyone.