Greenply Industries Ltd

Greenply Industries Ltd

284.95
INR
-4.45
(-1.54%)
7.92EPS
37.67P/E
37.23BMarket Cap
Oct 29Next Earn

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 5, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Greenply Industries Q3 FY26 earnings conference call hosted by Asian Market Securities Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Karan from Asian Market Securities Private Limited.

Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Karan Bhatelia

Thank you, Rudra. Good morning to all participants logged in to the call.

On behalf of Asian Market Securities, we welcome all to Greenply's third quarter and nine months FY26 investor call. From the management side, we have Mr.

Manoj Tulsian, Joint Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Sanidhya Mittal, Joint Managing Director, and Mr.

Sanjiv, CFO. I would like to hand over this call to Manoj ji for his opening comments, post which we can open the floor for Q&A.

Over to you Manoj ji, thank you.

Manoj Tulsian

Thank you, Karan, and good afternoon, everyone. It is a pleasure to have you all on this call.

I will be updating you on Greenply's operating and financial performance for quarter three and nine months FY 2026. As discussed in our previous call, the three-brand communication strategy aimed at enhancing product visibility across key market segments is working well for us and showing very encouraging initial outcomes.

This strategy has enabled us to deliver consistent growth in our plywood and MDF business on a year-on-year basis, as well as steady ramp-up in our hardware business, too. Also mentioned in our previous call, we guided double-digit volume growth in H2 FY26 across both segments, and I am happy to report that we are on track, having delivered double-digit year-on-year growth in quarter three FY26, both in plywood and MDF.

We remain confident of sustaining this momentum in quarter four FY26 and in the periods ahead. In our MDF business, we successfully expanded capacity from 800 to 1,000 CBM.

While initial operational challenges impacted growth during the quarter, these issues have now been fully addressed. The plant is currently stable and operating efficiently.

Production in the month of January was highest ever, and we are confident of a strong rebound going forward, in line with our growth expectations. Now I'd like to share with you that we have achieved a consolidated quarterly revenue of ₹673.4 crores, which is a growth of 9.6% on a YoY basis.

Our consolidated core EBITDA for the quarter was ₹58.9 crores with a core EBITDA margin of 8.7%, compared to 8.2% in corresponding quarter, a increase of 50 basis points. On a nine-month basis, our consolidated revenue was at ₹1,962.8 crores, which is a growth of 6.7% on a YoY basis.

Our consolidated core EBITDA was at ₹177.3 crores, which is a growth of 4.5% on a YoY basis. The core EBITDA margin was 9%, as compared to 9.2% in nine-month FY25.

PBT before the losses on equity accounted investees, foreign exchange gain/loss as an adjustment to finance cost, and exceptional items, is at ₹117 crores for nine-month FY26, which is a 13% YoY growth, as against PBT of ₹104 crores in nine-month FY25. Let me now share the highlights of our individual business segments.

As mentioned above about our go-to-market strategy, we continue to experience the demand for mid-value products during this quarter also, resulting in an average realization per square meter of ₹244, a 4.9% decrease on a YoY basis. However, on a QoQ basis, there is a marginal increase from ₹242 to ₹244 per square meter.

In quarter three FY26, we achieved a volume growth of 12.5% on a YoY basis, with a revenue of ₹521.7 crores, a value growth of 8.9% on a YoY basis. On the margin front, our core EBITDA margin remained intact at 8.4% for both quarter three FY26 and quarter three FY25, even though there is a drop in the realization on a YoY basis.

On nine-month basis, we have achieved revenue of ₹1,517 crores, a growth of 5% on a YoY basis. Our volume growth on nine-month basis is 5.8% YoY, despite having a negative growth of 3.1% in quarter one FY26.

Our core EBITDA grew by 4.7% on a YoY basis to ₹124 crores in nine-month FY 2026. The EBITDA margin stood at 8.2%, as against similar margin of last year nine-month FY25.

Moving to our MDF business, revenue in quarter three FY26 stood at ₹152 crores, with volume at 48,383 CBM, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.7% in value terms and 14.5% in volume terms. We had a good traction on demand side in quarter three FY26, but because of deficit in production during initial months of the quarter, we had to resort to limited trading activities to fulfill the orders in hand, which resulted in a moderated margin of 10.1%, which could have been otherwise in the range of 12% for this quarter itself.

With operations now fully stabilized and running efficiently, we expect a strong rebound and are confident of achieving our margin guidance in the coming quarters, including quarter four FY26. We are happy to share that the board has approved an investment of ₹400 crores towards expansion of second line of MDF, in line with our earlier commentary and our preparedness for future growth.

More details on the MDF business and the expansion will be shared by Sanidhya later. Moving on to our furniture and fittings JV, we have achieved the sales of ₹13.4 crores in quarter three FY26, achieving total revenue of ₹31 crores on nine-month basis.

The JV reported a PAT loss of ₹15 crores in quarter three FY26, with our share of the loss amounting to ₹7.7 crores, and on nine-month basis, PAT loss of ₹37.9 crores, with our share of the loss amounting to ₹19 crores. Losses for the quarter increased on a sequential basis due to increase in marketing spend, as we participated in two exhibitions.

Our consolidated net debt stood at ₹528 crores at the end of the current quarter, in line with the guided capex plans. Construction of the plywood Odisha facility is progressing at full pace, with all major orders already being placed, and the project remains on track.

We are confident that our debt-to-equity ratio will be within the guided range of 0.5 to 0.6x by year end, despite the announcement of new capex. With respect to our operations at Greenply Middle East Limited, we have further reduced exposure from USD 2.7 million to USD 1 million.

As a result, our contingent liability has also decreased from ₹24 crores to ₹10 crores now, as on 31st December 2025. Just to mention, at the time of divestment, this liability stood at USD 6.1 million.

With these statements, I would like to hand it over to Sanidhya to provide more insights on the MDF business.

Sanidhya Mittal

Thank you, Manoj ji, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. Our sales performance for this quarter delivered a 11.7% year-on-year growth in value terms and 14.5% year-on-year growth in volume terms.

However, during the quarter, we encountered some initial production challenges in the month of October and November, which had a temporary impact on sales and ultimately on the margins. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect a growth of more than 20% in sales on a year-on-year basis, supported by improved margins.

As mentioned earlier by our CEO about the announcement of the second MDF line at Vadodara, I will share some updates on the same. The second line will be a 700 cubic meter per day capacity with a cost of ₹400 crores and a revenue potential of ₹600 crores.

The plant is expected to be commissioned in the next 15 months and commercial operations to start in the next 18 months, which means Q2 FY28. Trial production of the HDF flooring line started in the month of December, and we executed a few orders also, but after that, we faced some glitches, and we are in the mode of correction phase.

We are confident of starting commercial production by March '26. Construction of PVC and WPC plant is going as per plan, and we are confident that the commercial production will start by March '26 as per our plan.

With this, I would like to open the floor for the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

Our first question comes from the line of Sukrit D. Patil from Isight Fintrade Private Limited.

Please go ahead.

Sukrit D. Patil

Good afternoon to the team. I have two questions.

My first question to Mr. Manoj is, as the plywood and board market continues to evolve, how is the management thinking about prioritizing growth levers such as distribution expansion and capacity over the medium term?

Among this, which do you believe will be most critical in strengthening Greenply's competitive position and long-term value creation? That's my first question.

I'll ask my second question after this. Thank you.

Manoj Tulsian

Okay. Hi, Sukrit.

See, last one year, we are clearly working on two or three major initiatives. I think that is what gave us a lot of confidence also that we will start now growing in double digit in volume terms.

In fact, the way things have happened, we are even looking at a better growth in mid-teens also going forward in the plywood business, because we suffered a lot in between. Anyway, they are corrections which were underway in the last 12 months.

One on the distribution side, when you are saying, there is a two-pronged strategy, which continuously will work in the plywood business: one, depth and reach. There has been a lot of work which has now started in the post six months, for which there was a preparatory period of almost six to nine months.

That's where we were confident that now we will be able to see the results. We are happy to see the results in quarter three that finally we have grown at double digit in terms of volumes.

Maybe possibly we could have even done better, but I am sure that in quarter four and in the year to come, we will look at even better numbers in the volume growth. One clearly, yes.

Your question has the answer that distribution is key in this business, and we are working a lot in terms of the depth of distribution and then the range of products, both, because we have range of products, but somewhere we have not been able to justify our range of products distribution across the depth. The second thing, the business today is at a very sweet price point, which is anywhere around ₹100 or so.

Somehow, we were missing this, and we realized this during this year. We started branding our mid-segment brand, which is Ecotec.

We have seen good positive green shoots the moment we have started investing on the same, not only in terms of the body line of our team, but also the way the market has responded. That is the next growth driver for many more years to come.

We'll continue to invest larger money on the second brand. In some time we'll be able to see that this brand for us will become the largest brand in the whole kitty.

Sukrit D. Patil

Thank you. Thanks.

Thank you very much. My second question to Mr.

Sanjiv is, along the similar lines, from a financial standpoint, can you elaborate on the key trade-offs managed during the period between growth investments, cost discipline, and working capital efficiency? How do these decisions influence your outlook on cash creation and return metrics as the business continues to scale?

Just want to understand your plan of action on this. Thank you.

Sanjiv Keshri

Yeah. Thanks, Patil.

See, we are working on the working capital. If you see, the working capital utilization is very low in our case.

We are working with the dealers also to reduce their working capital, and we are also introducing the dealer finance. In that sense, increasing the ROI of the dealers also on working on that.

increasing the working capital cycle of the dealers. This are the initiative we have already taken on our sales side.

We are also reducing our the debts. On a expansion side, we have taken the steps for the Now the internal accruals are there.

We are adding that good number of the cash internal accruals. On a capex, we have already announced.

As the Manoj ji said that the our debt-equity ratio will not increase more than the 0.6% at any point of the time. We are managing the our debt in that way.

Sukrit D. Patil

Thank you, and best of luck.

Manoj Tulsian

Just to add to that, I would say that as an organization in the last three to four years, where we have concentrated, yes, maybe partially we are successful and partially we may not be, because everything the way we think sometimes doesn't works out. We clearly look at incremental capital-output ratio, okay, that finally the investment should go into the pockets where finally I'm making better buck compared to my investments which is going.

Sanidhya will explain more on the strategy of why now we are investing for the second plant of MDF and why in West Vadodara, because we see a lot of efficiencies which will get built up further.

Sanjiv Keshri

Today, like from our first plant, because of the mix, maybe we'll somewhere not be able to do more than 88% or 89% of the capacity. The moment we put the second plant, the first plant also against 88%, 89% can start giving us a efficiency of maybe 93%, 94%.

Clearly, the ICOR is something which we keep looking at, and the justification on investments also gets driven from the same. On the working capital side, in any case, if you go on the operating side, we need to improve further.

We were much better, but yes, in fact in the board level also we had discussion yesterday a lot on the same that we need to be more efficient on the working capital and take out that money and invest more efficiently in the business. Somewhere you will see in our announcement also we have mentioned that most of our this investments which we are doing should come out of internal accruals.

Because this is that one large investments, MDF, what we have except the plywood investments which we are talking about, which is already on the way. If you look at the next three years' cash generations which will happen, it will automatically take care of our existing debt as well as the new investments.

There's a lot of semblance which we have tried to create now in the business, and we are following those disciplines as a company.

Sukrit D. Patil

Thank you for detailed guidance, and best of luck.

Manoj Tulsian

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hrishikesh Bhagat from Kotak Mutual Funds.

Please go ahead.

Hrishikesh Bhagat

Hi. Good afternoon.

Since you spoke about that you do look at the incremental return on capital, but when I look at it, what the ROCE was when you were only solely green plywood, and post that, if I look at the MDF capital allocation, clearly the returns have diluted. Now, against that backdrop, how do we justify the incremental capacity addition?

Because we're still at 71%, 72% utilization. The margins are pretty low.

That's question one in terms of that. Second is on the capex also.

If I look at the capital cost, it's largely similar to what it was in the past. Kudos to that.

Just wanted to check, is there, considering these are largely imported, is there no impact of rupee depreciation on the capital cost?

Manoj Tulsian

I will answer the first question, Hrishikesh, and the second question I'll leave Sanidhya to explain largely on the same. When you look at the history of last five years, the first thing, yes, if you look at Greenply definitely at that point of time only with plywood business was throwing better ROCE.

Is that the future product? Is that the level of risk which we should carry in our business by being just in one product?

These last four, five years for us were a lot of formative years, where we have not gone to raise any level of capital. We have not even thought about diluting any level of capital.

The whole objective was that whatever money was there in the business, how we can get more efficient. On the one side, where you ask this question, yes, I think it's quite valid that if I only look at plywood business, my ROCE was better.

When you look at a combined entity today, I think we have really made us risk-free by getting into three line of business. Two line of our business are now well established.

MDF in no time has really got well established. Today at least we have 7% to 7.5% of market share also in that.

Not raising capital, again, it's something for sure was a discipline to take out money from the existing business. I think from here on when you will see incrementally, you will see that my ROCE overall and ROI will continue to invest, because we have absolutely no plans at least at this point of time to dilute equity or raise any level of capital.

We understand that whatever are the means, whatever is the cash flow we are generating, we must make best utilization of the cash flow. Now imagine if I generate cash flow in my plywood business and I don't do any investments in MDF, which is a future-led business, what will happen?

Finally, my ROCE will continue to drop. The only other thing what we can do is to continue to maybe distribute dividends.

Hrishikesh Bhagat

Sir, sorry, I'm not debating your question in terms of that MDF is a wrong move. My point is, isn't it that the current margins, do they justify the investment?

My question was more on that front, that

Manoj Tulsian

MDF margins today are very low. No, no, totally appreciate.

That is where I'm saying the margins you will start seeing on MDF also. We'll get back to 16%.

Yes, there are certain market realities also. MDF again is like a business where you will see seesaw.

Margins, maybe we will see times when it will go back to 20%, 21% and then again it will come back to around 13%, 14%. We are actually quite happy that we are gone into MDF as a business.

It's a futuristic product. More and more applications we are able to see today in the market.

I think with these two line of business, which is our significant line of business, plywood and MDF, the company will do very well going forward. Next question I would request Sanidhya to answer.

Sanjiv Keshri

I'll just add to what Manoj ji said. I think we are seeing the ROCE of the MDF business on a short-term basis.

Currently, yes, there is overcapacity. There is a price fight in the market.

There is a margin war where the margins of at least the listed peers have come down. If you look at this on a three-year or a five-year or a seven-year period, I'm quite confident that the ROCEs will come to a justified and respectable level.

If it does not come on a long-term basis, it is obviously very clear that people are not going to continuously invest, neither us. At Greenply, for us to be dominant in the wood panel space, I think it was a very, very important move.

Moving on to your second question, I think you were concerned about the capex cost with the current euro going up and the dollar going up. I think we are quite confident on the ₹400 crore capex that we've announced, and the capacity, and we are looking at a very similar technology where we are looking at a German manufacturer, we're looking at a 8-feet wide continuous line.

With our cost that we have given, we are very confident that we'll be able to achieve a 700 cubic meter German Conti line at that cost. Yes, we have taken into account the euro cost.

Hrishikesh Bhagat

Thank you for the reply.

Sanidhya Mittal

Pleasure.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rehan Sayyed from Trinetra Asset Managers.

Please go ahead.

Rehan Sayyed

Yeah. Good afternoon to the team, and thanks for giving me the opportunity.

Sir, I just want an understanding regarding your segmental sales strategy. In the plywood business, manufacturing sales volume as a percentage of total has decreased from 43% in quarter three FY25 to 34% in FY26 quarter three.

Is this a deliberate strategic shift towards a more asset-light trading model, and how does this impact your long-term consolidated EBITDA margin target of 9%? Just want more clarification on this point.

Manoj Tulsian

Rehan, your voice was not totally clear. Are you saying on the sales side?

Is the question related to your sales volume between the premium and the economy?

Rehan Sayyed

Yeah. Manufacturing and trading model.

Manoj Tulsian

Oh, you are saying manufacturing and trading. Look, clearly it is visible that and we have suffered this into the past, okay, that when we were very high on our trading model, we were suffering in terms of supplies, we were suffering in terms of price escalations on a regular basis.

Of course, that was a period when the raw material timber prices were also moving up continuously. Now at least the raw material prices are much more stable.

Over a period of time, we have also learned that if we are able to cater to larger supply from our factories, that makes much more sense. Of course, in the short term when we will have a larger demand and our internal capacities are not adequate, we can always look at ramping up the trading model.

Somewhere, we are carrying that as a additional space for ourselves to mitigate short-term challenges in terms of hyper growth versus our own capacity. That is where we are looking at that model.

Rehan Sayyed

Okay. The last one, just a confirmation that you have said about your Odisha expansion yesterday.

Is it still work in progress, or is it started?

Manoj Tulsian

Which one? Sorry, again, actually your voice is not very clear.

Sorry to interrupt, sir,

Rehan Sayyed

but your voice seems to be very muffled.

Manoj Tulsian

Yeah.

Rehan Sayyed

Hello? Is it a bit clear now?

Manoj Tulsian

Maybe slightly better, but yeah, please repeat the question.

Rehan Sayyed

Yeah. Just one last question on the update that you have given about Odisha expansion capacity.

Is it in work in progress, or is that commence?

Manoj Tulsian

For the MDF, you're saying?

Operator

Odisha plywood, I think, he is asking.

Rehan Sayyed

Yeah. Odisha plant.

Manoj Tulsian

For the plywood in Odisha, there is already a work in progress.

Rehan Sayyed

Okay. Can we get a guidance that expected commercial date or project capital expenditure remaining for this project for the FY26 and FY27?

Manoj Tulsian

Our project commencement right now we have kept it as Q4 of FY27. The total investments which we speak about this plant was close to around ₹130-odd crores.

I think we will be in that range only. How much we have invested already, around ₹30-odd crores?

Rehan Sayyed

Okay.

Manoj Tulsian

Sanjeev, do you have the number, how much? We would have invested around ₹25, ₹30 crores by this time.

Sanjiv Keshri

Yeah, ₹25 to ₹30 crores already invested.

Manoj Tulsian

Right.

Rehan Sayyed

Okay. Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sneha Talreja from Nuvama.

Please go ahead.

Sneha Talreja

Hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity.

Just an extension to question of Hrishikesh, what is the realization and the margins now we're assuming on the new capex?

Manoj Tulsian

What is the?

Sanjiv Keshri

Is this for

Sneha Talreja

Realization in MDF. MDF, yeah.

Sanjiv Keshri

I think we are targeting a similar level of realization in the new plant also, and it's quite soon to say this capacity will come up for us in

Manoj Tulsian

18 months from now. Yes, we're assuming that will be at similar levels.

This capacity, Sneha, will come by end of second quarter of FY28. We still have a good time, actually.

Yes, right now, we are only assuming that, and we are able to grow our business at our current realization. We are able to grow well.

In quarter four, actually, we are looking at a much higher growth. At this point of time, this is a fair assumption that we will continue to get this realization, assuming that the market also behaves similarly.

In case there is price increase which happens in the market by 4%, 5%, 6%, in the next 12 months, then of course the realizations will also change.

Sneha Talreja

Sir, actually exactly my point. The kind of ROCEs that you're expecting on the new line of business won't be strong again as per your current realization number, right?

Manoj Tulsian

You see, the investment is only ₹400 crores now, okay, on a 700 CBM line, despite the increase in the rupee-euro and everything. I think that is a big, big advantage which we are going to create in this.

Yes, the ROCE would be similar around anything between 16% and 18%, not more than that.

Sneha Talreja

Right. Understood.

What are the other capex plans that you have for FY27? FY27,

Manoj Tulsian

now the major plan is only this plywood Odisha unit, which will get completed. The balance investments will go there.

This investment of ₹400 crores over 18 months. It will actually start from quarter four itself.

Some amount of investments will happen in quarter four, and then it will continue up to quarter one or quarter two of FY28.

Sneha Talreja

Understood. The Odisha plant you said will commission by quarter one or quarter two by '27?

Manoj Tulsian

No. Quarter four of FY27.

Sometime in January, February, March of calendar year '27.

Sneha Talreja

Understood. Sir, if I heard you correctly, you also said from now on would be looking at mid-teens sort of a growth for plywood division.

What changed precisely between the first half to now that we are in double digit at this point of time and incrementally we can look at these amount of growth continuing?

Manoj Tulsian

I think, Sneha, we mentioned this in the last call that we had taken support of a consulting house, which is now with us almost for last more than 18 months, actually maybe 21 months. Initially, we worked on first thing first on our factory-side availability of stock.

We found that there were a lot of gaps at times when we were not able to deliver on time to our customer despite having orders in place. Once you're not able to deliver on time or there is a delay, of course, either you lose some amount of sales, because my dealer is not going to wait, right?

Plywood is not a category where specifically he will only wait for Greenply. He can always And you know that all of them are MBOs, correct?

Keeping that in mind, the first thing first initial time, we only worked on correcting this supply-side issues and everything on the factory side. Having done that, then we came back to what we need to do on the sales side.

There was a lot of preparatory work which was going in terms of reach and distribution, that where are the gaps on reach and distribution. Second, of course, how do we do a better management in terms of our SFA, the sales force automation, and we get and extract better throughput from every salesperson whose feet is on the street.

We had created matrix, we had created KPIs, and those things started its trial run in quarter two. Good part, the best part which I even mentioned in my last call, is that the adaptability of the same from the team was very, very smooth.

Normally, it's a big change management, but kudos to our team that they wholeheartedly took this in their stride, and they started working now on those matrix. There is granularity, there is depth in terms of the daily working also.

Aided by that, a bit tweak in our strategy, which was we started investing on Ecotec as a brand. This was something which was the third support which as an organization we provided to our overall strategy.

Keeping all those things in mind, now you can see in quarter three, we have actually grown at 12.5% in volume, which is after a long time, I think maybe after couple of years or so. We are pretty confident, and then rest, time will only tell.

Sneha Talreja

Noted, sir. Lastly, on the furniture hardware business

Operator

Sorry to interrupt, ma'am, but if you have further questions, please rejoin the queue. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management will be able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, kindly limit the questions to two per participant.

Our next question comes from the line of Utkarsh Nopany from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.

Utkarsh Nopany

Yeah. Hi.

Good afternoon, sir. Sir, my first question is on your MDF segment.

If we see the value-added product revenue share in that category has gone down from 22% in Q1 of FY25 to 17% in Q3 of FY26. Wanted to know what challenges we are facing that we are not able to grow the value-added revenue mix over the past seven-quarter period?

Sanidhya Mittal

I think the number you're referring to here is I think the pre-lam sales. There are times that the company does some certain projects or certain orders where the pre-lam proportions are very high, and then there are some times when those orders are not available.

If you look at our overall mix in terms of HMR, Boilpro, exterior grade versus interior grade, I think we are very, very well placed. As a strategy, we do not want to provide that number and make it so easy for the competition.

I don't think we should be worried looking at the pre-lam numbers going up and down. That is how we look at it internally.

Obviously, that does not mean I don't mean to say that we don't want the pre-lam numbers to grow. Obviously, we want it to continuously keep growing.

Overall, in terms of value-added versus non-value-added, we are very comfortable and happy with our performance so far. We think that in times to come, this will not be a challenge.

Maybe up to the second line, this won't be a challenge. Starting the third line will be a challenge, because then the capacity will be too high to sell maximum value-added products.

Utkarsh Nopany

Okay. Sir, on the margin front if we see, it has turned out to be significantly lower in December quarter compared to our guidance of 16% plus, which we are targeting in the H2 of FY26.

Wanted to know what is the reason for such inferior margin compared to our guidance which we have shared in the first week of November? By what time frame we are expecting the margin to go up to our targeted level of 16% going forward?

Sanidhya Mittal

Right. One, we are targeting that, we should have a similar that kind of a margin profile in the in quarter four itself, number one.

Number two, in quarter in quarter three, we did not get the entire benefit of the increased capacity. We disturbed ourselves in quarter two to expand the capacity, and we did not get the full output in quarter three.

That was one of the reasons why we could not achieve the margin. The second reason, I think Manoj ji mentioned very clearly in his speech, was that we had to do some kind of sourcing to ensure that our dealers, distributors do not suffer.

They continue to get the material. Obviously, the sourcing comes at an extra cost.

It does not come at your own cost of manufacturing. Hence, a 2% margin hit over in the in the entire quarter was faced due to that reason.

Given these scenarios in quarter three that, we could not ramp up completely was the reason that, we could not give you the projected result. Fingers crossed, hopefully in quarter four we'll give you that result for sure.

That is one. Number two, I think Manoj ji also mentioned that January production was ever highest.

We are very confident and looking at the same, we feel that, quarter four will be in the lines of what we have committed.

Manoj Tulsian

Let me just add to that. In quarter three, when we spoke about 16% margin, now at least we can share that we felt that we'll get the added advantage of the production, and we will do a 20% plus growth in quarter three.

If you'd have hit that number, for sure we would have been at 16% margin. We would not have been troubled at all.

Since we lost that much of value sales, it also impacted the margin. January has been excellent on the production side, and that's why this level of confidence that we'll be back to our 16% plus margin from quarter four.

Utkarsh Nopany

Okay. Sir, lastly, on the balance sheet side, like at the time of Q4 of FY25 earning call, we guided that we are looking forward to reduce our net debt position from ₹455 crore in March '25 to ₹250 crore by March '27.

Now we believe that our net debt is likely to go up to close to around ₹650 crore by March '27, since we have undertaken new growth capex. Sir, wanted to know, with this capex announcement, our net debt to EBITDA is likely to remain at elevated level of more than 2x, and are we comfortable at such high net debt to EBITDA on a sustained basis, sir?

Manoj Tulsian

No, first of all, it will not be more than two for even the coming year, okay? We have looked at our numbers.

I'm not divulging all the numbers, but it will be less than two. That will only be for one year, okay, and we are not very sure whether we'll be at 650 or 600.

We are just assuming, because ₹400 crore will get spent over the next 18 months. Maybe it may happen that there are payments which goes to the last quarter also, which is the sixth quarter.

We are assuming that, okay, yes, fair basis, we should be somewhere on 650. At 650, we are much less than two.

That is just for one year. The next year itself, we will be at one, the subsequent year.

Utkarsh Nopany

Thanks a lot, sir.

Manoj Tulsian

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Parth Bhavsar from Investec.

Please go ahead.

Parth Bhavsar

Hi, sir. Sir, thank you for the opportunity.

I have two questions. One is a clarification on the capex number.

Sir mentioned that the capex for the new MDF capacity will be ₹400 crores versus the media release, it says ₹425 for a 600 to 700 CBM capacity. Can you just confirm ₹400 crores for a 700 CBM capacity?

Sanidhya Mittal

The number is 425, and the difference is on account of GST. When we did the internal calculation, the operating team always calculates 400, but when the CFO does the calculation, he takes the GST also into account, which will get capitalized.

The rest of the GST is only a cash flow item, but this 25

Manoj Tulsian

It's a cash flow item, too. It's a cash flow item, board of course will have to take along with the GST, yeah.

Parth Bhavsar

Fair enough. Sir, one other thing, on input cost, like if you could throw some light on how the timber costs are trending and what was your consumption cost in Q3, and what is it right now?

Are we seeing any moderation over here?

Manoj Tulsian

Timber cost almost has remained stable in the last quarter. Slightly, it bumped up in the month of December for some period, but again in January, it is back to the same October, November levels.

Yes, we were expecting that the timber prices to be stable, or it will start coming down. It is stable.

It has not started coming down.

Parth Bhavsar

Okay. Sir, just one last question.

What sort of brownfield optionality would we have at this Baroda facility post this new expansion? Do we have any optionality in terms of land that is available to put up another line?

Sanidhya Mittal

I think after MDF 2, we will not have any spare land to expand further our capacity over there, for sure. Maybe something small is a very different thing, but not a large capex or a large plant.

Parth Bhavsar

All right. Perfect.

Thank you, sir. Those were my questions.

Sanidhya Mittal

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Fenil Brahmbhatt from Choice Institutional Equities.

Please go ahead.

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Hello. Good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity.

I have a couple of questions. Sorry if something repeating again, but yeah, just to confirm.

Could you able to share revised guidance for volume and margin for both plywood and MDF business for FY26 and FY27, if you have any handy number?

Manoj Tulsian

You're saying for the full year?

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Full year I'm saying, for FY26, '27, our volume or margin guidance.

Manoj Tulsian

We have not given any such guidance, but yes, while we were speaking, we have mentioned that in plywood, we have now started looking at double-digit growth from quarter three. We mentioned this earlier that in our previous call, that in H2 we will look at a double-digit growth in volumes in plywood as well as MDF.

At this point of time, we will only maintain the same statement, because we have been able to deliver in quarter three. We can see that happening in quarter four, and even for going forward, this is what internally we are looking at as a company.

We feel pretty confident that, yes, from here on, we'll be able to deliver those numbers. However, yeah, the full FY26 Do we have any working for FY26 full year?

Maybe you can reach out to the team, and the team can let you know afterwards, because Yeah, off the cuff, numbers may not be correct. Sure.

Right. Or

Fenil Brahmbhatt

any quantified margin difference between MDF boards and pre-lam boards, do we have any different numbers for this two in MDF business, what is the margins over there?

Sanidhya Mittal

You want margins separately for pre-lam and separately for plain boards?

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Right. Do we have that number with us?

Sanidhya Mittal

I don't think we have it handy. Maybe you can get in touch with Jai or the CFO.

I don't know if we also share this.

Manoj Tulsian

If we will share

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Great. Considering this current market and the oversupply in MDF, what's the management strategy for the MDF business and considering this price war and steady demand and oversupply?

Do we looking for any export opportunity as well?

Sanidhya Mittal

If you look at the export mix which existed for most players, I think people export at cost or slightly lower than cost to keep their plants running. That is what we've understood looking at certain other listed players.

Definitely export is not an option with the Europe FTA or the US deal. Now if those markets open up, I'm not sure how the scenario will be, but the current scenario if you look at any other listed player who's exporting, I don't think they really make any money in export.

Our focus is definitely the domestic market. If you look at our brand and our brand strength and our distribution strength, I think the capacity we have for MDF is very, very small today, even though there is an oversupply in the market, but as Manoj ji mentioned, we are only looking at 7.5% of the market installed capacity today, or that is our only market share today.

For the second line also, we are not worried as the management of the company. We feel that with our brand, we'll easily sell through.

Also, you have to see the competitive advantage in terms of the regional strength. Given that we are the only player producing MDF in Western India, that is definitely giving us a strength, and we want to continue to be dominant there, and hence we've announced our second facility there as well.

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Okay. That ₹400 crore MDF plant, new plant which we are talking about, that is for which location?

For Vadodara only, or this for something else?

Sanidhya Mittal

Yes, this is in the same location, and we plan to take many advantages having the second line in the same location. We feel that on a long-term basis, there will be raw material advantage.

On a long-term basis, there will be fixed cost advantage in terms of manpower and management. Also, we are going to dedicate both lines for different purposes.

We are going to run our existing line in the future only to make thick boards, and we're going to run the new line only to make thin boards. That way we'll be able to churn out maximum capacity from each line.

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Okay. The last question from my side, management outlook for share of PAT from furniture hardware JV, if you have any outlook on that?

Manoj Tulsian

On the furniture hardware JV?

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Yeah. Right now we are in loss of So, yeah

Manoj Tulsian

Yeah. The ramp-up has been good.

We are happy with the ramp-up, okay? Next year also we are seeing that we would be able to grow at around 30%, 35% for the next year.

Even with a 30%, 35% growth, somewhere we will not be able to make profits. The year subsequent, we will be able to make profit, for two reason: one, there will be another growth of maybe 35% to 40% for sure.

Second, they are part of the products right now which we are importing. We are importing from Turkey, where my import costs are high.

We have a plan now to do the expansion of phase two. Once that is being done, then the margins improve significantly the moment we start manufacturing those in India.

We'll get this dual advantage: one, there will be a lot of improvement in the overall margin, and second, the growth will also propel us in terms of bringing down the losses. FY28, for sure, we will be into profits.

Fenil Brahmbhatt

Got it. Thanks for the answer, and all the best.

Manoj Tulsian

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Karan Bhatelia from Asian Market Securities Private Limited.

Please go ahead.

Karan Bhatelia

Hi, sir. Thanks.

Am I audible?

Sanidhya Mittal

Yes, Karan.

Karan Bhatelia

Sanidhya, just to continue on the new capex. Correct to assume the new capex will be for thin line and the existing infra will be for the thick line?

Wanted to understand on a product profile how better could be the realization profile of thin MDF and thick, and also on the margin side? If I have to break up the domestic market into thin and thick, how much is the share of each?

Sanidhya Mittal

Honestly, today whatever realization you see is a blended realization of thin and thick. Today, given that we have one line and we have to produce all grades, all thicknesses, we have frequent stoppovers and changeovers on that line.

The moment we have two facilities in the same premise, we will dedicate each line for each category of product. One line will only make thin all grades, one line will only make thick all grades.

In that case what happens is that the total output of each line can be increased, with the fixed cost remaining the same. That's the way we can really increase our operating margins and leverage the efficiencies.

That is the major change which will come in. Answering your question about the thin-thick, I think about 35%, 40% of the market easily should be thin boards, and the rest is thick, according to me.

There's no authentic data to back this.

Karan Bhatelia

This is what we feel and

Sanidhya Mittal

the experience we've gained over the years.

Karan Bhatelia

Right. On the MDF side, again we've seen players getting into aggressive capex modes.

What's the current installed base as on '26 end, and how do we see the industry level CAGR over next two, three years from all branded and non-organized brands?

Sanidhya Mittal

I think that the MDF industry in India will grow at a 15% CAGR is what we internally feel. This was the same question asked by our board yesterday, and that has been the numbers that we feel and even our board feels confident.

Looking at the history, Greenply was involved in this category long back, even when Greenply was one entity. We've seen this kind of a high-growth CAGR over almost a decade now as an organization.

Karan Bhatelia

Right. Do you think the only worry is if supply grows by 15% plus, we may not really have days where you can take price hikes or can see meaningful improvement in the margins or the return ratio profile?

Sanidhya Mittal

I think we'll have to see the ROCE or the margin or how good an investment is over three years, five years, and seven years. If we check the investments and returns on those intervals, I think we'll be satisfied fairly.

If we see it on a short-term basis, yes, it might look like a very bad decision or a bad choice that currently there's oversupply, people are not making money, should we invest or not invest. Looking at Greenply's future and wanting to be dominant in the wood panel space, I think we need to continue to grow and dominate this space.

I'm very confident that on a long-term basis, we'll create enough value to satisfy us and each and every stakeholder.

Karan Bhatelia

Thanks for

Manoj Tulsian

the Also, Karan, what happens, the installed capacity in MDF, as we mentioned there in the call also, Most of the players, they are not able to operate on 100% of the installed capacity at any point of time. There is already a gap of let's say 10% or 15%.

Most of us will be able to operate because of the mix. The installed capacity, when it comes from the German manufacturer, they speak about certain thicknesses, certain sizes made in that proportion.

The moment we have the real mix which we are today selling in the market, we also find that today we are talking about 71%. I think the moment we go beyond 85%, 86%, somewhere we will start feeling that heat, okay?

Technically speaking, though we are saying 1,000 CBM, but we will not be able to manufacture 1,000 CBM with the present mix what we are selling, and that is true for most of the players. The capacity which is there in the market also, when we do our calculations, we feel that that capacity should mostly get utilized in the next 12 months.

Whatever capacities are already in place, and also remember which we have mentioned earlier, that these are such plants that they don't operate at 85%, 90% capacity on day one. It takes a cycle of two year to three year for them to reach that maturity of start delivering between 85% and 90% throughput.

I think there is a level of balancing which has already happened, and for us, we clearly see that going into West is an advantage, because there is a good market. There is no clutter there.

We didn't wanted to go into that space where there are already so many plants in South and North. Even last time there were concerns, but we've been able to prove to everybody that we took a good decision at that point of time, and I'm sure this time also we'll be able to prove this that what we have taken the call, both in terms of location and in terms of the pricing at which we will be able to establish this plant, the timeline, possibly this will turn out to be good only.

Karan Bhatelia

Got it. Thanks.

Since

Operator

there are no further questions, any closing remarks management team would like to make?

Sanidhya Mittal

Thank you all for taking time to participate in this call. In case of any further clarifications or queries, please feel free to reach us.

Thank you.

Operator

On behalf of Asian Market Securities Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.