Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bawa Group Q3 26 Results Webcast and Conference Call.
After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.
To withdraw your question, please press *1 and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded, and there will also be a transcript on the company's website.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jutta Wimmer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jutta Wimmer
Good morning, everyone. Before we start with the call, let me remind you of the following.
In regards to the planned transaction of permittees be reminded that the transaction is regulated by the Irish takeover rule and therefore we are restricted in the information we can provide on this call. As a result, we will not take Q&A in relation to the PTSP transaction and any updates will be communicated via regulatory announcements.
With that, I hand over to our CEO, Anas Abuzaakouk.
Anas Abuzaakouk
Thanks, Jutta. I hope everyone is doing well this morning.
I am joined by Enver, our CFO. Let us start with the summary of third quarter results on slide 3.
We delivered net profit of €248 million, EPS of €3.18, and a return on tangible common equity of 27% during the third quarter. Operating performance of our business was very strong, with core revenues of €599 million.
up 8% versus prior year, pre-provision profits of €425 million, and a cost-income ratio of 30%. We continue to realize the benefits of investments over the years as we build out a pan European and US banking group.
Total risk costs were €79 million, translating into a risk cost ratio of 56 basis points, We have a low NPL ratio of 1%, continue to see solid credit performance across our businesses. In terms of our balance sheet and capital, average customer loans were flat, and average customer funding was down 1% quarter-over-quarter.
We have a fortress balance sheet with €13 billion of cash equal to approximately 19% of our balance sheet. An LCR of 197%, and overall strong asset quality.
During the first 3 quarters of the year, we worked diligently to ensure we positioned ourselves to fully self fund the PTSV transaction. As of the third quarter, we landed on a CET 1 ratio of 17.1%.
Translating into over €1 billion of excess capital required to self fund the deal. Have invested considerable time and resources in the PTSB transaction, and we look forward to the upcoming high court decision at the end of the month and receipt of the remaining regulatory approvals.
Started this process in November of 2025. When we made a strategic decision to enter the announced public auction.
We spent 6 months of due diligence as part of a competitive auction process that required thorough analysis, planning, and coordination, and we were pleased to emerge from that process as the successful bidder. After the signing of the transaction and subsequent shareholder approval in July, we have spent a significant amount of time communicating with regulators, the PTSB board and leadership team, and many other stakeholders introducing ourselves and our business.
Our goal has been to listen, learn, and prepare for a smooth and seamless integration. We are confident in having put our best foot forward by being patient, staying disciplined, working constructively and transparently at every stage of the process, all while rising above the noise.
If the PTSB transaction is approved, this will be our 15th acquisition since 2015. Acquisitions are a key plank of our strategy as we continue to build a pan European and US banking group with the capabilities and scale to effectively compete and deliver sustainable results long into the future.
PTSP would be our first public company acquisition, with different dynamics, but we always stay consistent to our principles. We focus on delivering results through our actions and avoiding empty slogans and self promotion.
Our actions speak louder than our words. We have been consistent about our views of the Irish market and our key focus.
Ireland is 1 of the most attractive markets across Europe. With all the ingredients for successful banking.
Pro growth economic policies, rich in human capital, a bridge to the EU, The UK, and The US. We aim to drive competition, significant investment and innovation.
Supporting PTSP's customers and more broadly, the Irish economy. While delivering long term sustainable growth.
We are excited to get to work and embrace the journey ahead. We will provide an updated mid-term outlook with full-year earnings, assuming a successful close of the PTSV transaction.
Excluding any potential PTSV impact, we reconfirm all of our 2026 targets with net profit over €960 million return on tangible common equity over 20%, and a cost-income ratio under 33%. Moving to slide 4.
As far as capital development, our reported CET 1 ratio landed at 17.1%, equal to over €1 billion of excess capital above our CET 1 target of 12.5%. This puts us in the position to fully self fund the PTSB acquisition which requires approximately 450 basis points of capital subject to high court and regulatory approvals.
Generated a 116 basis points of gross capital from earnings during the third quarter. RWA growth accounted for approximately 30 basis points of capital reflecting the changing asset mix and growth in our consumer and SME business.
Which has been on a positive trajectory the past few quarters. Also restarted our dividend accrual, accruing 100% of earnings in the third quarter equal to €248 million of net profit or €3.21 per share and plan to do the same for the fourth quarter as well.
With that, I will hand it over to Enver.
Enver Sirucic
Thank you, Anas. Moving to slide 6.
Our P&L and balance sheet overview. We delivered a strong third quarter with net profit of €248 million and a profit before tax of €335 million.
Net profit was down 3% versus prior quarter, due to a positive tax effect in the second quarter following a participation sale, while profit before tax was up 1%. Return on tangible common equity was 27% based on a current CET1 ratio of 17.1%.
Core revenues amounted to €599 million up 8% versus the prior year and 2% versus prior quarter. While pre-provision profits reached €425 million.
The cost-income ratio was below 30% with synergy gains materializing faster than anticipated. Risk costs amounted to €79 million translating into a risk cost ratio of 56 basis points, reflecting the changing asset mix.
Underlying credit performance remained solid, with an NPL ratio of 1%. Earnings generated 116 basis points of gross capital, during the third quarter supporting a reported CET1 ratio of 17.1%.
We also resumed the dividend accrual at 100% of third quarter earnings, which is already deducted in the CET1 ratio. In terms of balance sheet, average customer loans were flat and average customer funding declined by 1% quarter-over-quarter.
We continue to maintain a fortress balance sheet with €13 billion in cash, representing 19% of total assets and an LCR of 197% and a strong asset quality. Moving to slide 7.
Core revenues. Net interest income increased by 2% in the quarter with customer loans flat in Q3 26 and supported by continued positive trend in consumer SME including credit cards.
Mortgage volumes remain subdued, Net interest margin at 350 basis points reflect the ongoing changing asset mix while the deposit beta decreased to 28%. NII rate sensitivity is unchanged every 25 basis points increase delivers €25 million per year, after 12 months, and €50 million per year after 24 months.
Net commission income with a stable development at €102 million Results across business lines of retail SME continue to perform well. For the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income to grow gradually at a stable development in net commission income.
On Slide 8, operating expenses amounted to €181 million, representing a 2% quarterly decline with a cost-income ratio below 30%. Our initiatives across the group developed better than anticipated therefore, expect to outperform our outlook.
Risk costs for the quarter came in at €79 million up €3 million versus prior quarter. The increase reflects continued shift in the asset mix toward high-margin consumer and unsecured lending.
Importantly, underlying credit performance remains strong, with an NPL ratio of just 1%. On slide 9, the retail SME segment delivered net profit of €280 million a return on tangible common equity of 35.8%.
Pre-provision profits amounted to €379 million 4% higher than the previous quarter. Risk costs amounted to €75 million or 77 basis points.
by the asset mix change while credit quality remained solid, with an NPL ratio of 1.6%. We expect continued growth across the franchise.
On corporates, real estate and public sector, the segment delivered net profit of €35 million with a return on tangible common equity of 23.2%. We saw more redemptions in the quarter, but our focus remains unchanged on disciplined underwriting and risk adjusted returns.
Finally, on slide 10, we are entering the last quarter of the year. Profitability remains robust.
Capital generation continues to be strong, asset quality is resilient, and we remain on track to deliver our 2026 targets. While preparing for the next phase of growth through the planned acquisition of PTSB.
And as mentioned earlier, we will provide updated mid-term targets with our full year results in February. And with that, operator, let's open the call for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. Thank you.
To ask a question, you will need to press *1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press *1 again.
We will now go to the first question. 1 moment, please.
And your first question today? Comes from the line of Gulnara Saitkulova from Morgan Stanley.
Please go ahead.
Gulnara Saitkulova
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you for presentation, and thank you for taking my questions. The first question on the deposit momentum and NII.
Can you please unpack the key drivers behind the deposit outflows? With the corporate, real estate and public sector down 26% year on year and retail and SME down 2% And where you are seeing the most intense competition across products and geographies for the deposits?
And looking ahead, where do you expect the deposit volumes to stabilize by segment? And how should we think about the pricing trends across key products?
And related to that, to what extent can the shift to high-yielding lending, offset funding pressures and support NII growth? When should we expect the benefits from this asset mix shift to become visible in NII?
And the second question on risk weighted assets. How should we think about the risk weighted assets growth relative to organic growth going forward, particularly as the portfolio shifts towards high risk assets.
Do you expect the resulting capital headwinds to persist going forward? And what levers could you pull to mitigate the impact on capital generation?
Thank you.
Enver Sirucic
Okay. Great.
Hi, Gulnara. That was a lot to digest and for-- Yeah.
Let me take the first 1. I think you asked about the deposits momentum, the outflows.
So more of the same that we have seen in the past. it is mainly 2 products.
The 1 is the online German deposit business. We decided few quarters ago not to compete in the market because we think it is overpriced.
And we are still seeing outflows in that segment. The second 1 is the Austrian public sector deposit base.
Where the competition comes from the Austrian Bundesschatz. So the government offer which is, again, you know, above.
that is why we decided not to compete. But all the other franchises, all their deposits are quite stable or drawn.
You asked about stabilization. Well, I think once that normalizes, but we see already lower outflows compared to the prior quarters in the.
In that segment.
Anas Abuzaakouk
I think the second block of questions was about asset growth, I guess. And also RWAs.
Was just. Yeah.
Is that right, Gulnara?
Gulnara Saitkulova
Yes. Correct.
So if we look about the moving parts, of NII, to what extent the shift towards high yielding lending, to unsecured lending can offset these funding pressures and support the growth?
Enver Sirucic
Yeah. So I think on the, you know, consumer SME side, we will we will see that trend continuing.
It was quite stable over the last couple of quarters. And what is harder to predict is mortgages.
We did expect more growth this year, but competition was really very intense in terms pricing levels. that is why we stayed very patient, and that is why I see, you know, a small decline there.
And also, in Q3, we had more redemptions in the nonretail segment, especially on the real estate. Again, depends on the overall market.
And for us, nothing changes. We will be disciplined.
And we will not chase, you know, volumes in a particular quarter, but more a look at it from a long term perspective. And when it comes to risk weighted assets?
Well, it is still grow in line with the asset development. And the only thing that we have not disclosed is obviously that we are working on different measures, including SRTs to potentially offset these.
So you do not expect the headwinds to persist going forward, that the 30 basis points headwind in we saw from the mix shift, you expect this to phase out essentially to not persist going forward? Oh, it is the same.
So as long as we have that asset mix change, you will see high front book RWA density, obviously. Given the mix of the assets.
The only thing I said is we will work on different measures to offset that RWA growth. And that is not reflecting Q3.
It might be different in the coming quarters. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question today comes from the line of Amit Ranjan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Amit Ranjan
Yes. Hi.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have 2, please.
The first 1 is on risk cost. How should we think about the 50 bps outlook for 2026?
You have 56 bps during the quarter, 52 bps year to date. Can you talk about the drivers here?
I think you mentioned solid underlying trends. So anything that you can give between.
Split between asset growth and stage 3 coverage provision built? And the second 1 is on cost.
there is you are running well ahead. Should we expect this trend to continue?
Anything seasonal that we should keep in mind for q that could drive the number higher, please? Thank you.
Enver Sirucic
Thanks, Amit. On the risk of outlook, pretty much the same answer as I gave to Gulnara is as long as we see that asset mix change going on, you will see high risk cost ratio What is hard to predict then is the redemption profile.
If you see earlier redemptions than expected as well as the mortgage growth. Which was more muted than what we expected, which then becomes a technical thing of a denominator.
And if you then look at the risk cost ratio, it might be a bit elevated. I think we are still confident that we will be around the 50 basis points for the full year.
And on optics, yeah, I think trend is very obvious. Q3 lower than Q2.
it is. It should be quite stable for Q4, I would assume.
And we do not expect any, you know, 1 offs or any seasonal effects for Q4. Okay.
Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question today comes from the line of Noemi Peruch from UBS. Please go ahead.
Noemi Peruch
Yes. Morning, and thanks for taking my questions.
2 of these, please. The first 1 would be on your cash balances.
Was just wondering if you could update us on potential deployment of cash into higher yielding securities. I think you.
You would be feeling uncomfortable that the spread environment, Now they have seen some spread widening clearly. Any updated thoughts on that?
What holding you back? What can hold you back?
From all your deployments going forward. And then the second would be, just a quick update on your lending pipeline on nonretail.
I hear you. it is hard to predict redemptions or weekday repayments.
But if you could just talk a little bit about opportunities particularly in corporate lending, and also perhaps in real estate, what you are seeing in the market at the moment? Thank you.
Anas Abuzaakouk
Alright. Thanks, Noemi.
Cache deployment, you. We are seeing the spreads starting to widen, across certain asset classes.
Obviously, sovereign, I think, is first and foremost, which we have almost no exposure. it is pretty de minimis.
Under 1%, but that is been the case for a number of years. Think we will be patient.
There. there is a lot going on.
We see some areas that we think could be attractive, but gonna be disciplined and patient. And just assess the overall market as we think risk is repricing generally across the board.
And that is something, hopefully, we will be able to be the beneficiaries of as we have been patient for a number of years now. And then on the nonretail, I think that is a good question.
The reality is you see a pipeline build up, In those times, you see pretty fast redemptions. That are unexpected, and that is 1 that we just got to be patient.
Not gonna manage it by quarter in terms of volume growth. We feel pretty good about the pipeline that we have going into the end of the year.
but that is just cyclical. it is hard to be quite frank, it is hard to pinpoint in any given quarter, let alone, I guess, across the whole year.
So but we will be patient. We see some good opportunities, but we are never gonna chase anything for the sake of volume growth.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question today comes from the line of Gabor Kemeny from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Gabor Kemeny
Yeah. Good morning.
Firstly, on the NII outlook, please. I mean, you commented on the deposit flows.
How much competitive pressure do you see on deposit spreads? Looking at your NII sensitivity guidance, I guess, much can offset can we possibly assume from deposit spreads and drifting a bit from the current levels, limiting the upside from higher rates.
And then the first 1. And then secondly, coming back to costs.
I mean, you keep beating on consensus. And on expectations.
Kind of can you comment on what levers have you found to improve the cost efficiency and is this kind of fully in line with your budget, or are there any trends which have been more supportive than you assumed initially? Thank you.
Enver Sirucic
Yes. So, Gabor, on deposit competition, I mentioned the 2 examples.
So we have seen quite a intense market in Germany, especially for the online deposits as well as the Bundesschatz offer in Austria. Overall, we would assume that the competition will pick up.
And if you look at it differently, what we have seen early days not so much the deposit pricing that has picked up other than few offers that we see in the market. But it translated into much higher mortgage pricing intensity.
So the margin. The mortgage spreads dropped significantly over the last couple of months.
Which we think is a reflection, you know, of the higher deposit margins that we see on the other side. But going forward, yes, we would expect more intense competition in the market overall.
Anas Abuzaakouk
And just the. On the cost side, Gabor, I would say, it is no different than how we have approached it over the past decade now that we have been a public company.
it is every quarter, you try to strive for just getting a little bit better and we talk about continuous improvement. there is no silver bullets.
it is not AI. I think is a bit of a cliche.
AI is an enabler. Just like every other technological, improvement that has happened that we have seen So, I think the key is being disciplined, the approach in terms of taking an absolute cost focus as opposed to just looking at cost income ratio.
there is a lot of things that impact the denominator. on the cost-income ratio.
So just more of the same and being very disciplined. We are starting to see more broadly the benefits of a scalable platform.
And when you really understand your technology stack, what we call technology operations or TechOps, that makes a real difference. In being able to control that technology when you insource as opposed to relying on third parties.
And that is something that, I think has been consistent over the years. Exactly.
Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question today comes from the line of Jordan Bartlam from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Jordan Bartlam
Good morning, and thanks for the questions. 1 firstly on other income.
Or fees specifically. So the fees and commissions was flat on the last quarter, and you are continuing to guide for stable development.
For the rest of the year. Just curious what is causing that line not to grow more from here.
So the advisory type revenues seem like they should be growing a bit quicker, and I think the track record there has been pretty stellar. So why is this not really translating into more growth?
That would be my first question. And then secondly, on the cost side again, you flagged a few of the drivers.
I just wonder how much more we can expect in terms of cost synergies from the Knab and Barclays deals? Or are they largely done at this stage?
So those are my 2 questions. Thank you.
Anas Abuzaakouk
Yeah. Let me just take the cost, and then Enver will address the other question.
Jordan, it is it is not so much any 1 particular acquisition. We look at it at a group level.
that is how we manage things centrally. it is hard to pinpoint any particular entity or acquisition it is just part of your continuous improvement cycle And I think that is a competitive advantage that we look at things centrally.
And we try to manage in terms of the overall platform. You know, I mentioned the technology operations.
It also is in the central functions. Commercially, obviously, that is more local.
In terms of customer facing roles, but I think there is still quite a bit to do on this front. Technology is, like, the greatest enabler.
Right? Coupled with having, I think, a centrally steered business, I think, is a competitive advantage.
Yes.
Enver Sirucic
Jordan, on the fee income question. So reality, we were ahead of plan in the first 3 quarters.
Especially Q3 and Q2 were stronger than what we expected. So keeping it stable, it is actually above what we initially forecasted for the fee income.
that is the main reason. The second reason is just given the you know, seasonality of it.
Certain felines are cut off basically before Christmas. If you think about advisory and the likes.
So there is that seasonal effect. And, again, we are ahead of plan on the overall line.
that is why we think being stable in Q4 is actually a strong outcome. Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jovan Sikimic from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Jovan Sikimic
Yes. Good morning.
Thanks a lot for the call. Maybe at this stage, if you could provide, I mean, what is your rate outlook for the next quarter?
And, of course, in kind of, let's say, combination with organic loan growth outlook, where would you see actually NII trajectory going into 2027? Of course, I am not talking a bit.
Including a PTSD And I think it is also. I think somebody asked in the call about what is the likelihood of deploying cash into high yielding securities.
So overall, we are we are you see let's say, on current run rate of NII improving next year or not? Thanks.
Enver Sirucic
Yeah. So thanks, Owen.
I mean, I do not want to start talking about next year's forecast, but I think it provides some guidance how we think about it. So we do not have a rate opinion, so we try to be very neutral in terms of our positioning.
But the underlying franchise obviously has the rate sensitivity as we have disclosed, but especially on the deposit side. So I think if you if you go through the main drivers, obviously, the positives are higher rates, higher sensitivity, higher deposit margin, that is something that we will expect to see in Q4, but also going into 2027 The asset mix change on secured consumer and SME is a positive driver, that is also reflected in the prior quarters.
I would say on the more cautious side, I think competition, the deposits will pick up. That will add, obviously, to the deposit beta to go up.
And the other thing is not so much. It does not matter so much in the short term.
But we see, obviously, very intense pricing on the mortgage side. And that is why loans have been low.
So there is a mix. I think overall, it is a positive trend.
It will continue, but there are a couple of things that we need to look out for. Okay.
Very helpful. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question, sir, comes from the line of Noemi Peruch from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Noemi Peruch
Hello. Good morning.
1 on credit, if I may. So you have this-- you have this very useful slide on umbrella where you basically mentioned that you intend to have a single point of entry, which PTSB and that during.
And that you expect existing MREL resources to still count during a transitional period. I just wanted to check with you, is the transitional period basically until 2027 And then from end of the year 2027, you will basically get a requirement for the combined entity and therefore, the existing rel from PTSB will not count in 2028.
Enver Sirucic
Yeah. Thank you, Noemi.
We are not in a position to disclose that yet. We will disclose it as soon as we have it.
And we will make it public.
Noemi Peruch
Okay. And Capital is.
It 1 and 52 are still expected to count? Is that correct?
Because on the slide, you just touched on MREL wanted to make sure that there are no nuances between the 2. Or is there a transitional period also for capital?
Enver Sirucic
No. Previously, we already did capital on a group level.
MREL was done at the opco level, and that is going to migrate to group level. I think that is the reason why.
Okay. So no transitional period for AT 1 and tier 2?
No. I would not assume that.
Would still count. Okay.
Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Sigee
Good morning. Thank you.
Could you just come back onto any areas of organic growth where you see attractive opportunities? Could you just talk a little bit more about that?
And perhaps linked to that or perhaps not, I do not know, what opportunities do you see in The U. S.
Market at the moment? You emphasize your identity now as a Pan European and U.
S. Banking group.
I just wonder what that second part of it means at this point in time, where you see opportunities to do good business in The US?
Anas Abuzaakouk
Thanks, Jeremy. We have been in The US market for, man, 15 years.
So this was not a recent development. But just more broadly, your question or specifically to your question around opportunities.
I think, Enver touched on it. The 1 area that is the most challenged is mortgage volumes.
And not so much from volume standpoint. Right?
People are lending out there. it is just from a spread standpoint.
it is pretty, pretty anemic. And we will be patient.
We will stick to our credit box. Consumer and SME, whether it is credit cards, consumer loans, specialty finance, that is actually gone pretty well, I think better than expected this year.
So that is been an interesting dynamic or interplay between mortgages and kind of non-mortgages in the retail and SME. Then on the corporate real estate public sector, real estate's been the 1 that is been the most volatile.
So we have seen we have had I would say, unusually high redemptions. This particular year.
But we have a good pipeline, so, you know, not to front run, but we think hopefully, that should materialize in the fourth quarter. And then in the corporates, it is a tough slog in terms of just where corporate lending's at.
that is a lot of volume that we do not see really attractive spreads at the moment. In public sector, we will see how things reprice given just the developments more broadly.
But you know, AI has been a big. AI center has been a big area of focus for a lot of banks and private credit platforms.
Do not have any exposure there. Something that we have just never been able to get our hands around.
To be quite honest. So we will be patient.
We see some good opportunities. Thanks.
Jeremy Sigee
And the US team, obviously, I am aware you have been there for a while. it is just whether there is any growth opportunities, whether that is a better place to deploy capital at this point?
Anas Abuzaakouk
I think on the commercial real estate front, particularly when you think about resi, industrial, even some idiosyncratic office opportunities. I think The US is pretty attractive But, also, The US is where we have seen the highest redemptions, Jeremy.
So it is it is interest Yeah in the market. We will be patient, but we see pretty good opportunities.
Question is, will they materialize? Okay.
Understood. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. That was our final question for today.
I will now hand the call back to Anas Abuzaakouk, CEO, for closing remarks.
Anas Abuzaakouk
Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining this morning.
We look forward to being in touch in the coming weeks and coming months and at year-end. if we do not speak before.
So take care. Have a nice day.
Thank you.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thanks for participating.
You may now disconnect.
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