JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited

JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited

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Q2 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 17, 2025

Operator

Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.' s second and third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Ms.

Stella Wang, JinkoSolar's Investor Relations. Please proceed, Stella.

Stella Wang

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for JinkoSolar's second and third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

The company's results were released earlier today and available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on newswire services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website.

On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; Mr.

Gener Miao, CMO of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, CFO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr.

Charlie Cao, CFO of JinkoSolar Company Limited. Mr.

Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company highlights, followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing, and then Mr.

Pan Li, who will go through the financials. They will all be available to answer questions during the Q&A session that follows.

Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties.

As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under the applicable law. Now it's my pleasure to introduce Mr.

Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holdings. Mr.

Li will speak in Mandarin and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead, Mr.

Li.

Xiande Li

前三季度全球组件总出货量为61.9个GW,再度蝉联全球组件出货量第一。凭借卓越的产品性能和海外高价值市场的领先布局,二季度毛利率为2.9%,三季度毛利率为7.3%,毛利率环比环比大幅改善。欣喜的是我们过去两年在储能研发、产品等方面的深耕,正在逐渐迎来收获。前三季度储能产品累计发货量已超过3.3个GWh,连续两个季度环比大幅增长,叠加海外市场的占比提升,储能业务的盈利能力明显改善。考虑到储能产品有安装、调试和验收的过程,报表端显的确认会相对滞后。我们有信心随着规模效应的逐渐体现和竞争力的持续增加,明年储能业务将迎来翻倍以上的增长,储能收入将大幅度增加,预计为我们整体业务毛利率带来创造成性的增幅贡献。

Stella Wang

In the first three quarters of 2025, our global module shipments totaled 61.9 GW, once again ranking number one worldwide. Driven by our outstanding product performance and strong presence in high-value overseas markets, gross margin improved sequentially for two consecutive quarters to 2.9% in the second quarter and 7.3% in the third quarter.

Net loss continued to narrow sequentially. We're pleased to see that our intensive efforts devoted to storage, R&D, and products in the past two years started to bear fruit gradually.

In the first three quarters, our cumulative energy storage system, ESS shipments exceeded 3.3 GWh, increasing significantly for two consecutive quarters. This, combined with the rising share of overseas markets, has helped the profitability of our energy storage business improve noticeably.

Considering that energy storage products have the process of installation, commissioning, and acceptance, there will be a lag in revenue recognition in our financial statements. We're confident that as economics of scale accelerate and competitiveness continues to improve, our energy storage business will more than double next year.

Its revenue contribution is expected to rise significantly and serve as a key driver of our overall gross margin expansion.

Xiande Li

二季度和三季度我们的组件开工率维持在合理水平。三季度以来,上游硅料、硅片、电池环节有一定幅度的涨价,组件价格稳中有升。由于136号文下各省的竞价机制仍在落地中,央国企中标项目收益率的测算和商业模式需要一定的时间,预计需求的释放仍需要一定时间。但行业从原材料环节呈现积极的信号,受原材料价格上涨推动,海外组件价格也有所上涨。

Stella Wang

In the second and third quarter, we continued to keep module utilization rates at a reasonable level. Since the third quarter, prices of polysilicon, wafers, and cells have all risen, and module prices showed some upward trends.

Given that bidding rules in all provinces are still in the implementation phase, central and state-owned enterprises need some time to recalculate their IRR returns and adjust their business models for end projects. It is expected that demand will take some time to release.

However, we have seen some positive signals in the raw material segments. Supported by rising raw material prices, module prices in overseas markets have also increased.

Xiande Li

高功率的产能的升级成为加快行业高质量发展的重要方向,这也契合了终端客户对高中力产品的需求,以实现更可靠的投资回报。我们作为行业率先进行产能升级的公司,三季度的高功率产品升级稳步推进,目前已交付了部分高功率的飞虎系列产品,相较未升级的产品溢价在1到2个美分。随着最高功率可达到670瓦的飞虎三系列产品逐渐完成升级改造,我们预计2026年的高功率产品的出货量账簿占比会逐渐提升,2026年全年高功率产品的出货占比不低于60%。

Stella Wang

The upgrade toward high-power production capacity has become an important direction for accelerating industry high-quality development. This technical upgrade also meets end customers' demand for high-power products to achieve more reliable investment returns.

As an industry pioneer to upgrade existing TOPCon capacity through technology enhancements, we made steady progress in high-power products upgrades in the third quarter. We have already delivered some high-power products, carrying a premium of 1 to 2 US cents per watt compared to the conventional products.

As upgrade of the third-generation Tiger Neo products with maximum power of 670 watt-peak is completed, we expect the shipments proportion of high-power products to increase quarter-over-quarter next year, accounting for 60% or above in 2026.

Xiande Li

136号文取消强制配储后,国内储能正在加速市场化,峰谷价差的拉大,叠加容量电价、容量补偿的政府支持,多个省份的独立储能项目可实现较好的经济性。在经济性和能源转动的转型的驱动下,海外如欧洲、亚太、中东、拉美等地区需求也多点开花。在美国,AI算力中心的迅速扩张及制造业带来制造业增长带来前所未有的电力需求,而本土电力供应面临挑战,光伏加储能成为更安全、更易部署的方案。预计全球储能需求将在新能源渗透率提升与储能系统成本下降的双重驱动下迎来了爆发性的增长。这也充分印证了我们在储能业务的前瞻性布局是顺应行业发展的正确选择。我们也积累了长期的竞争优势,作为光伏领域的头部企业,我们拥有长期积累的渠道、品牌和客户资源优势,可以为客户提供本土化一站式的光储解决方案。在制造端,公司目前拥有12个GWh的系统集成产能和5个GW的电芯产能,通过自研技术突破,不断提升储能产品的性能和竞争力。市场上,我们聚焦了高毛利的海外市场,重点覆盖了大型储能和工商业务项目,交付周期较长,但需求旺盛,为公司储能的业务提供了稳定且可持续的增长动力。

Stella Wang

Since market-based electricity reform has removed the mandatory energy storage requirements, China's energy storage industry is accelerating its market-oriented development. With the increasing gap between peak and off-peak electricity prices and the implementation of policies such as capacity pricing and capacity compensation, independent energy storage projects in multiple provinces can achieve sound economic returns.

Driven by both improving economics and global energy transition, demand is increasing in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Latin America. In the US, the rapid expansion of AI data centers has led to an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, straining domestic electricity supply.

Solar plus storage has therefore emerged as a safer and more easily deployed solution. We expect global demand for energy storage to experience explosive growth, driven by increasing renewable energy penetration and declining storage system cost.

This once again validates our strategic decision to invest in the energy storage business in line with our industry trends, and it has helped us build a long-term competitive advantage. As a leading enterprise in the PV sector, we possess long-established advantages in channels, brand reputation, and customer resources, enabling us to provide localized one-stop solar-plus-storage solutions.

On the manufacturing side, we currently have 12 GWh of pack capacity and 5 GWh of battery cell capacity, and continuously improve product performance through self-developed technological breakthroughs. On the market side, we focus on high-margin overseas markets, particularly utility-scale and industry and commercial projects.

Although delivery cycles are relatively long, demand remains strong, providing stable and sustainable growth momentum for the company's energy storage business. 总体来看,全球供应链正在加快重塑,供需平衡逐渐改善。随着技术的升级推动行业高质量的发展,高功率高价值的产品市场份额将逐渐扩大,成为价格的引领者。随着招投标市场竞争更加注重技术能力和长期可靠性等综合能力好的头部企业,银行融资等资源也正向头部企业集中,龙头份额有望进一步的提升。凭借强大的技术能力、长期的可靠性以及我们光储一体化业务的全球多元化,我们的竞争力将进一步增强,并有望在行业的下一轮上升周期中受益。

In summary, the global supply chain is reshaping, and the balance between supply and demand is gradually improving. As technological upgrades accelerate the industry high-quality development, the market share of high-power and high-value products will continue to expand and become a dominant force in market pricing.

As market competition, particularly in project bidding, increasingly favors leading enterprises that demonstrate strong technological capabilities and long-term reliability, resources such as bank financing are also concentrating towards leading enterprises, further strengthening their market share. With strong technological capabilities, long-term reliability, and global diversification of our energy storage business, we are well positioned to further strengthen our competitiveness and benefit from the industry next upward cycle.

近期国家对新能源行业支持力度持续加强,十五五规划意见明确提出加快能源供应端与消费端的低碳化。国家发改委、能源局近期发布了关于促进新能源消纳与电力调控的指导意见,进一步加强了储能新型能源体系建设中的关键作用。我们预计这些措施将进一步提升中国新能源行业的竞争力,推动行业长期回归到健康合理的发展发展轨迹。 The 15th Five-Year Plan proposed accelerating the decarbonization of both the energy supply and consumption sectors.

The National Development and Reform Commission, NDRC, and the National Energy Administration, the NEA, have also recently issued guidance on promoting renewable energy integration and power system regulation, further emphasizing the critical role of energy storage in the construction of a new energy system. We expect that these measures will further strengthen the competitiveness of China's renewable energy sector and steer the industry back onto a healthy and rational development path.

Xiande Li

展望四季度及全年,我们将积极持续响应行业高质量发展的要求,合理控制开工率,聚焦高效产能的升级改造,同时积极应对海外的政策的变化,保障对客户的可持续供应。我们也会不断强化在技术创新和全球化方面的竞争优势,实现规模和利润的平衡,巩固龙头地位。2025年全年含组件、电池、硅片的总出货量预计将在85个GW到100个GW,全年储能出货预计在6个GW。

Stella Wang

Looking forward to the fourth quarter and full year, we will continue to actively respond to the industry's call for rational development by maintaining reasonable production levels and focusing on upgrading and transforming high-efficiency capacity. At the same time, we will proactively adapt to changes in overseas policies to ensure sustainable supply for our customers.

We will keep strengthening our competitive advantages in technology and global operations, achieve a balance between scale and profitability, while consolidating our industry-leading position. We expect the total shipments, including solar modules, cells, and wafers, to be between 85 GW to 100 GW for the full year of 2025, and ESS shipments to be 6 GWh for the full year 2025.

Gener Miao

Thank you, Mr. Li.

Total shipments were 21.5 GW in the third quarter, with module shipments accounting for 93%. By the end of third quarter, we became the first module manufacturer in the industry to achieve a cumulative global module shipments of 370 GW, with total cumulative shipments of Tiger Neo series surpassing 200 GW, the best-selling module series in history.

In terms of a geographic mix, in the third quarter, we focused on high-value overseas markets, with shipments accounting for over 65%, achieving strong growth in Asia Pacific, emerging markets, and Europe. Shipments to the US were nearly 1.3 GW in the third quarter, doubled sequentially.

Against the backdrop of electricity market reform, customer demand for high-power products continues to rise. Our high-power Tiger Neo 3.0 series, with its bifaciality rate of 85% and excellent low-light performance, can generate stable electricity during storm, dust, and cloudy weather, effectively extending power generation hours.

At the same time, in a market environment with increasing volatility in electricity spot prices, the outstanding power generation performance of Tiger Neo 3.0 enables more power generation during peak price periods in the morning and evening, creating higher yield and a more reliable returns for clients. According to our outdoor field test data in Chengdu, China, under low-light conditions such as dawn and dust, Tiger Neo achieves a 7.2% gain compared to BC products, and in Kagoshima, Japan, Tiger Neo shows 10.79% yield gain over BC products in low-light conditions.

In the third quarter, we delivered some high-power products that carries 1 to 2 US cents premium compared to conventional products. We expect our high-power Tiger Neo 3.0 product with maximum power of up to 670 watt-peak to be produced in large scale next year, further strengthening our competitiveness on the product side.

We once again topped the PV Tech 2025 Q3 ModuleTech Bankability Ratings report with AAA ratings, thanks to our solid operational capabilities, outstanding technological innovation, and a strong recognition from global customers, as one of the few enterprises to continuously maintain top-tier creditworthiness and technological strength in the global PV industry. In the latest release of BNEF Energy Storage Tier 1 List for 4Q 2025, we were recognized as Tier 1 energy storage provider for the seventh consecutive quarter.

Our continuous efforts in sustainable development have also earned international recognition repeatedly. In the recent MSCI ESG Ratings, we were upgraded to an A rating, maintaining our position in the top tier of ESG performers in the global PV industry.

Additionally, our S&P CSA score continued to improve from 2024, rising significantly to 78, far ahead of the industry. On the demand side, we expect global PV demand to slightly contract in 2026.

In China, due to the implementation of policy reform 136, the pace of carrying out 15th Five-Year Plan, as well as industry self-discipline and anti-involution measures, demand is expected to slightly decrease year-over-year in 2026. Markets outside China are generally expected to remain healthy.

In the mid to long term, the urgent power demand from AI data centers, combined with most countries' commitments to reduce carbon emissions, will jointly drive growth in the global deployment of clean energy and a new grid infrastructure over the next 3 to 5 years. The Information Office of State Council recently released the white paper of China's Action on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality, which emphasizes that energy storage is a key support for building a new type of power system and advocates actively developing renewable energy plus energy storage solutions.

In the United States, we are already seeing some tech giants deploying co-located or nearby solar plus storage at their data centers to meet rapidly growing electricity needs. We believe renewable energy plus energy storage has become an inevitable and accelerating trend.

We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the US market. Although trade policies impose certain constraints on the manufacturing side, we have taken proactive measures and made early strategic deployments, adjusting our manufacturing and supply chain in response to policy changes to provide US customers with long-term, stable, and reliable solutions.

We are confident that leveraging our advantages in technology innovation, high-power products, and a global network, we can continue to satisfy our global clients' demand for clean, safe, high-efficiency, and reliable integrated solar and storage solutions. We will also continue to improve our competitiveness in global markets.

Pan Li

Thank you, Gener. We're pleased that our focus on high-performance products and high-value markets, as well as our efforts in cost and expenses control, have delivered steadily improved financial results.

Gross profit margin turned positive in the second quarter and continued to improve by 4.4 percentage points in the third quarter. Net loss and adjusted net loss narrowed sequentially for two consecutive quarters.

Operating cash flow was $340 million in the third quarter, improving significantly quarter-over-quarter. Operating cash flow is expected to be positive for the full year 2025.

Moving to the details in the third quarter, total revenue was $2.27 billion, down 10% sequentially and 34% year-over-year. The sequential decrease was mainly due to a decrease in the solar module shipments, and the year-over-year decrease was primarily due to a decrease in average selling price of solar modules.

Gross margin was 7.3%. The sequential improvement was mainly due to a lower unit cost product sold, and the year-over-year decrease was mainly due to the decrease in ASP of solar modules.

Total operating expenses were $363 million, up 36% sequentially and down 32% year-over-year. The sequential increase was primarily due to an increase in the impairment of long-lived assets, while the year-over-year decrease was mainly due to the decrease in shipping cost as solar module shipments decreased and average freight rate declined during the third quarter this year.

Total operating expenses accounted for 16% of total revenues compared to 10.6% in the second quarter and 15.4% in the third quarter last year. Operating loss margin was 8.7% compared with operating loss margin of 7.7% in the second quarter this year and operating profit margin of 0.3% in the second quarter last year.

Moving to the balance sheet, at the end of the third quarter, our cash and cash equivalents was $3.3 billion compared with $3.4 billion in the end of the second quarter of 2025 and $3.2 billion at the end of third quarter of 2024. AR turnover days were 105 days compared with 97 days in the second quarter.

Inventory turnover days were 90 days compared with 66 days in the second quarter this year. At the end of the third quarter, total debt was $6.4 billion compared to $6.7 billion at the end of second quarter.

Net debt was $3.1 billion compared with $3.3 billion at the end of second quarter this year. Debt conditions improved sequentially.

Let me go into more details of the second quarter. Total revenue was $2.51 billion, up 30% sequentially and down 25% year-over-year.

The sequential increase was primarily due to increase in solar module shipments, while the year-over-year decrease was mainly due to a decrease in the ASP of solar modules. Gross margin was 2.9%.

The sequential improvement was mainly due to a lower unit cost of products sold, while year-over-year decrease was mainly due to the decrease in the ASP of modules. Total operating expenses were $266 million, down 24% sequentially and 50% year-over-year.

The sequential decrease was mainly due to the reduced expected credit loss expense in the second quarter, while the year-over-year decrease were mainly due to three points: a decrease in the impairment of long-lived assets, reduced expected credit loss expenses, and decreased shipping costs as the average freight rate declined during the second quarter this year. Total operating expenses accounted for 10.6% of total revenues compared to 18.1% in the first quarter of 2025 and 16.9% in the second quarter of 2024.

Operating loss margin was 7.7% compared to 20.7% in the first quarter this year and 4.7% in the second quarter last year. Moving to the balance sheet, at end of the second quarter, our cash and cash equivalents was $3.4 billion compared with $3.77 billion at the end of the first quarter this year and $1.9 billion at the end of the second quarter last year.

AR turnover days were 97 days compared with 111 days in the first quarter this year. Inventory turnover days was 66 days compared to 84 days in the first quarter.

Our operating efficiency is improving. At the end of second quarter, total debt was $6.7 billion compared to $6.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Net debt was $3.3 billion compared to $2.6 billion at the end of the first quarter this year. This concludes our prepared remarks.

We're now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

If you wish to cancel your request, please press *2. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.

Your first question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

Philip Shen

Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.

First one's on your gross margins. Can you share some color on what you see as the difference between yours and Canadian Solar's?

They reported recently 15%. You guys have Q3 gross margins at about 7%.

What was the main driver, you think, for that underperformance? Then can you provide some color on the storage and solar gross margin difference?

Then finally, what do you think margins look like for Q4? Thanks.

Charlie Cao

Thanks, Philip. I think compared to our peer, particularly Canadian Solar, the gross margin difference is the different revenue contribution from the energy storage business.

If you look at Jinko, quarter by quarter, we did improve gross margin dramatically. It's coming from majority the module business.

For the energy storage sectors, we did want to have a very, very positive update. I think in the prepared remarks of Chairman Li and we think our energy storage business is ready for the dramatically growth in next year, 2026.

We are expecting significant revenue contributions and gross margin expansions. The storage is really in supply shortage.

This year we shipped around 6 GWh shipments. Next year, we expect to double, at least double.

In terms of revenue recognition, it's a little bit different because the revenue is recognized for the shipments with the final acceptance. It's a little bit delayed, one quarter to two quarters.

For the energy storage business, gross margin is at a decent level. We expect at least 15%, 15% to 20% gross margin and, looking forward.

Particularly for the ESS business out of China, and we target 70%, 80% the ESS business next year. In terms of revenue contribution from the energy storage business, we expect 10% to 15%.

The revenue from ESS business compared to the total revenues of Jinko next year. We think our business is shifting from purely module business to module plus ESS next year.

Philip Shen

Great, Charlie. Thank you very much for the color.

Can you share also a little more color on your view You've given us some color on the storage market. You shared that next year it could be 6 GWh.

What might the geographic shipment mix be for 2026? How much to the US, how much to China, and then maybe Europe and others?

Thanks.

Charlie Cao

Yeah. This year is 6 GWh, and next year is double, okay?

That is the total volume. In terms of geographical distributions, non-China roughly we think 70%, 80%, including United States.

United States, we are in discussing with a lot of potential customers, and it's developing. We believe, step by step, we are getting more and more orders from US.

We have strong pipelines, particularly I think from Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.

Philip Shen

Got it. Okay.

Great. Thank you.

Shifting over to one more question here on the foreign entity of concern for the US, FEOC. Can you help us understand, you plan to You have a big business shipping US Sorry, shipping solar modules to the US.

Now you plan to ship batteries also to the US. Can you help us understand how you plan to comply with foreign entity of concern requirements for the US market?

Thanks.

Charlie Cao

Yeah. Looking for the next year, we don't believe there's a lot of negative impact from the FEOC, let's say, OBBA compliance.

We are seeing a lot of safe harbor projects, particularly for the solar plus some storage projects. We committed from long term and I think we reshape our supply chain globally and we are exploring options for our solar module facilities in Florida.

We think from long term and there is going to be demand for both FEOC and non-FEOC. If there is some kind of development, particularly for transforming our solar module facilities in the United States to the non-FEOC entities and we will let investor know.

We have been in the process to discussion with potential investors.

Philip Shen

Got it. Okay.

Thank you, Charlie. I'll pass it on.

Charlie Cao

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies.

Alan Lau

Hello. This is Alan from Jefferies.

Thanks for taking my question. My first question is about ESS business.

Would like to know if there is any discussion with any of the AI data centers or hyperscaler clients, and what type of demand are they requiring? Are they more like 2- to 4-hours of grid capability compatible demand, or it's more like even longer hours of storage with 5?

Thank you.

Charlie Cao

Yeah. We think the AI-driven data center, it's going to put a lot of demands for the global electricity from long term.

Our ESS teams is in discussing with potential pipelines for the data center, including the US, Europe, and including China. It's still in the progress, and we believe we are able to reach a significant milestone early next year.

Alan Lau

I see. Clear.

Thanks. In relation to the geographic breakdown, would like to know if the gross margin of ESS is similar across the regions, or it should be higher in Europe or US?

How do you see the margins in different regions that you operate? Oh,

Charlie Cao

you mean the ESS margin, different regions, right? It's depending on different markets, and China is still relatively low, but I think it's recovering a little bit.

ESS is very competitive in China. Europe and US is We think that it's serious, a decent gross margin.

Middle East a little bit low. I think China and Middle East is ESS, the pricing, the competitiveness, and the margin is relatively low to other regions, but we think it's still a very healthy business in the next two years.

I see.

Alan Lau

Yep. Would like to know on the cost side of ESS, because I've noticed that the costs of raw materials are increasing or surging.

Any plans to lock in any raw materials, or how is your view on different raw materials like batteries or even more upstream battery materials like lithium carbonate, etc.?

Charlie Cao

Yeah. Because the strong demand, the materials is likely in the upward words.

Firstly, we have 5 GWh battery cell capacities, and which put us a relatively advantage. The second one, we partner with the key materials suppliers.

The second one, when we negotiate contract, we did anticipate some kind of material costs upwards. It's a combination.

I think it's a little bit challenge, but we think we can manage and how to minimize the impact of the material pricing.

Alan Lau

I see. Then my next question is about the demand on the solar module market.

How do you see the demand growth is next year for maybe both solar and ESS? What is the growth rate you see?

Gener Miao

Yeah. For the demand side, definitely we should look in separately for both for PV and BESS, right?

For PV side, I think we are in a conservative way. We are expecting a more or less flat year in 2026 versus 2025.

The main reason is because China demand, we believe it will have a drop compared with 2025, which because the weight of China demand is so high in the global demand, which drive, even with other markets booming or other markets growth, we still expect the total demand of the globe in the PV industry for next year will be more or less flat year. However, when we look into the BESS, it is in a different scenario, right?

With more and more renewable installed, the grid needs more security for the BESS contribution. Definitely, we are seeing a sharp increase for the BESS side.

That's why from the BESS, we are still keeping a optimistic opinion or expectation for next year's installation. If we need to quantize that, we think it will be at least a 25% increase for the BESS year-over-year.

Alan Lau

I see. Thanks, Gener.

Would like to know what type of installation in China are you looking at, because there are different numbers flowing around. Are you looking at low 200s or even below 200 GW in China?

Gener Miao

I am not that conservative for China because when recently I visited a lot of our distributors and even installers in China in all the different provinces, I think most of them are still keeping a optimistic view for next year. Having said all those, I believe that it will be around, say, module-wise it will be around mid-200s, let's say, around 250 about.

If we look into the grid connection numbers, it should be somewhere around low

Alan Lau

200s. Oh, that's very clear.

Thanks a lot. I think my last question is on the buyback.

Would like to know if the company would start buyback after the blackout period, which is basically this result, and how is the pace of the buyback would look like? Thank you.

What

Pan Li

we monetized 3%, right, A-shares and I think the end of October, and we are in the process to get money out of China and after the regulatory approval. We have paid the, withholding tax, and we expect to get the money by the end of this month.

Very soon. For the shareholder, shareholder returns, and we we commit at least $100 million a year, and we had declared dividend earlier this year.

We we bought some shares, certain shares, and I think last quarter, in the middle of this year. After the window, after earnings release, and we we plan to to repurchase the shares through out of the end of the year.

Alan Lau

How much shares have been purchased, or will the company looking to basically buy all the remaining amount in the buyback program in the remaining one month?

Pan Li

Yes. I think we plan to use the proceeds from the monetization of A-shares as the key funding and which is available, and it's around $170, $80 million.

I think depending how the market move, but definitely we will repurchase the shares by end of this year. Roughly, I think this year $100 million, and we had declared dividend I think $50, $60 million, so that's our the base plan.

Alan Lau

I see. That's clear.

Thank you. Thanks, Charlie.

Charlie Cao

We will,

Alan Lau

yeah.

Charlie Cao

Yeah. Yeah.

It's a year-over-year plan, and next year it's roughly the same plan.

Alan Lau

I see. That's clear.

Thank you. Thanks, Charlie.

Charlie Cao

Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Rajiv Chaudhri with Samsara Capital.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Good morning. My first question is regarding your guidance for module shipments for the fourth quarter.

It's a very big range, 18 to 33 GW, and you've essentially kept to the same range that you gave for the full year back in early part of the year. Now we are halfway through the fourth quarter.

Could you help us narrow down what the range would be for Q4 for module shipments?

Charlie Cao

Yeah. I think we will close to the lower end of the range.

I think because of the regulatory requirement, we have to keep that range as before, but from the operational level, we believe the lower end of the range is more, let's say, realistic.

Rajiv Chaudhri

I see. Related to that, what do you think the global shipments of modules would be for the industry as a whole in 2025?

Charlie Cao

We technically believe from the production-wise, we are looking at roughly 700 GW. That's the high-level numbers we are estimating for the whole industry.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Do you believe that 700 GW would actually have been shipped out by the industry as well, or that was just the production?

Charlie Cao

I think it's more realized to a production, closer to the production side, but because every company has a slightly different ways to calculate or announce their shipment numbers. That's why it's difficult to figure out what's the real shipment number.

Production-wise, I think the number is more realistic.

Rajiv Chaudhri

I see. Okay.

Moving on to another question relating to CapEx, could you give us the CapEx target for 2025 and also for 2026?

Charlie Cao

It's it's roughly RMB5 billion, this year and next year. Next year's we we didn't have any, plan to, expand, capacity, and it's a kind of upgrade to the next generation TOPCon technology.

It's going to have significant, high-end, high-power output solar modules. It's we're able to provide to our customer, next year roughly 60%.

Right. It will with price premium and relatively good margin contributions.

Next year quarter-over-quarter, the capacity for the upgrade high-end module capacity will be released quarter-by-quarter.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Charlie, just to be clear, this year the CapEx is RMB5 billion, and next year it'll be flat at 5 billion?

Charlie Cao

Roughly, roughly. Next year is I I talk about This year is it's roughly payment, payment of outstanding, amount, 5 billion.

Next year, we are doing the upgrade. We're doing the upgrade existing capacities and to the next high-level, TOPCon capacity.

We we foresee a lot of strong demands and with higher module price and higher gross margin contributions.

Rajiv Chaudhri

You made a very interesting point that operating cash flow will be positive in 2025. It looks like you will be generating operating cash flow positive in 2026 as well, and maybe substantially higher than 2025 because the gross margin will be higher.

Is that a correct assessment?

Charlie Cao

Yes. That's right.

We talk about, firstly, I think the catalyst, it's first one is ESS storage business next year. We are looking to 10% to 15% revenue contributions from ESS with decent gross margin and positive net profitabilities.

Second one is module business. We have I think the most advanced TOPCon upgrade capacities in the industry and developed by ourselves for the technology.

Which we'll roughly have 60% shipments of the modules coming from the next-generation Jinko-developed TOPCon capacities with higher gross margins. Second one, we think from the high-level standards industry, anti-involutions is takes the effect step-by-step.

The capacity will accelerate phase out. The leading by the on top of that, industry-leading self-disciplined control production volume and reasonable pricing based on the costs will take further, I think, enforcement.

Combined together, I think the industry is reaching the low point and is recovering step-by-step. Jinko, we are getting ready from the market and product perspective, and the plus, we are shifting solar plus ESS story and the business.

The basic plan next year, we are confident that we are able to navigate the cycles and turn to positive early. That's kind of the base plan next year.

Rajiv Chaudhri

You talked about the premium products and the fact that they've got premium pricing. On the cost side, will your costs for these premium products will still be lower than the cost for the standard products this year?

In other words, do the costs keep going down even as the price goes up?

Charlie Cao

Yes. Initially, by design, the cost is a little bit higher, but a very, very small incremental cost.

Our R&D team continue to dive into the details and to try to further improve the cost. Back to your question, I think the high-end products, the cost is a very, very small incremental cost increase at the beginning.

We believe over time our R&D team with our operational teams will continue to improve the cost.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Final question, Charlie, on market share. In the past, in 2023 and '24, your global market share had gone up to somewhere between 15% and 16% of the global market.

This year, it is down a little bit, I guess partly because you have restrained production because of the pricing. Should we expect that your market share next year will go up again and maybe go up a lot more than 16% because the industry itself is consolidating?

What do you think the range for next year module shipments could be?

Charlie Cao

The consolidated market share, after industry consolidation and phase out the capacity, the industry turn into the kind of normal situation. It's for sure it's a very good for Tier 1 companies.

If you look at the long term, we are confident and we will continue to penetrate the market share. The next year still I think from the top-down approach, and I think China will continue to implements the anti-involution policies.

We don't expect significant shipments increase for the module business. ESS, it's different stories.

Rajiv Chaudhri

I see. Okay.

Thank you very much.

Charlie Cao

Welcome, Rajeev.

Operator

Your next question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

Philip Shen

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my follow-up questions.

I want to check back in with you in terms of Q4 margin outlook. What kind of solar module ASP could we see in Q4, and then what kind of margin for the overall quarter could we see?

Thanks.

Charlie Cao

We expect relatively stable Q4 versus Q3. ESS business is contributing more revenues, and we estimate our ESS business in fourth quarter is going to reach positive profitability levels.

The contribution is not significant, but next year is different story like we have talked about. For the module business, we expect relatively stable.

Philip Shen

Okay. Got it.

Thanks. Then can you talk about module ASPs for Q1 and Q2 of next year?

Then also the trajectory for margins as you blend in more batteries? Thanks.

Charlie Cao

Phil. I think it's difficult to share those numbers or estimations right now because what is happening is like some of the key market is they are still there are some key or some important policies is upcoming.

For example, the US, the guidance of FEOC or material assistance or even upcoming 232, which will significantly impact the market prices. Like in China, there are anti-involution policies, and there's a even more rumors coming out regarding the polysilicon, even to the other manufacturing value chain as well.

Those changes could significantly change the market price overnight. That's why we believe it's too early to share or our estimation on the prices for next year.

Philip Shen

Gener. That makes sense.

You talked about the rumors on poly. Can you give us a little more color on that?

Thanks.

Charlie Cao

I don't have too much more to share. There's a lot of rumors on the market or on the internet, I don't know what you're referring to.

Philip Shen

You mentioned it, I thought I would try to see if there's more color. No,

Charlie Cao

We are not part of the game, I don't have too much to share with everyone. Thank you for your question.

Philip Shen

Yep. No problem.

Okay. Thank you, guys.

I'll pass it on.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

Tyler Bisset

Hey, guys. This is Tyler Bisset on for Brian.

Thanks for taking our question. Just quick housekeeping questions.

Can you share what was D&A and CapEx in 2Q and 3Q?

Charlie Cao

You mean the absolute number or percentage, right?

Tyler Bisset

Yeah. The actual number.

Charlie Cao

I think in the financial statements, you can check out the financial statements, the R&D and the operating expenses, and we have disclosed quarter-by-quarter. What would be your key question you want to explore?

Tyler Bisset

D&A and CapEx in 2Q and 3Q, the absolute numbers.

Charlie Cao

D&A, that... You mean the depreciation or CapEx?

Tyler Bisset

Yeah.

Charlie Cao

The

Tyler Bisset

depreciation, and then separately CapEx.

Charlie Cao

Okay. Depreciation by quarter I think is roughly $300 million a quarter.

CapEx, I think the first half year, we spent roughly RMB2 billion. All right.

Tyler Bisset

Thank you.

Charlie Cao

Okay.

Operator

That is our last question, and that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect.