Operator
Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.' s Second and Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call.
At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After management's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.
As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Ms.
Stella Wang, JinkoSolar's Investor Relations. Please proceed, Stella.
Stella Wang
Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for JinkoSolar's second and third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.
The company's results were released earlier today and available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on newswire services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website.
On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Xiande Li, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; Mr.
Gener Miao, CMO of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, CFO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr.
Charlie Cao, CFO of JinkoSolar Company Limited. Mr.
Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company highlights, followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing, and then Mr.
Pan Li, who will go through the financials. They will all be available to answer questions during the Q&A session that follows.
Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today.
Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under the applicable law.
Now it's my pleasure to introduce Mr. Xiande Li, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding.
Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin, and I will translate his comments into English.
Please go ahead, Mr. Li.
Xiande Li
前三季度全球组件总发货量为61.9个吉瓦,再度蝉联全球组件出货量第一。凭借卓越的产品性能和海外高价值市场的领先布局,二季度毛利率为2.9%,三季度毛利率为7.3%,毛利率环比环比大幅改善。欣喜的是,我们过去两年在储能研发、产品等方面的深耕,正在逐渐迎来收获。前三季度储能产品累计发货量已超过3.3个吉瓦时,连续两个季度环比大幅增长。叠加海外市场的占比提升,储能业务的盈利能力明显改善。考虑到储能产品有安装、调试和验收的过程,报表端显示的确认会相对滞后。我们有信心随着规模效应的逐渐体现和竞争力的持续增强,明年储能业务将迎来翻倍以上的增长,储能收入将大幅度增加,预计为我们整体业务毛利率带来创造性的增量贡献。
Stella Wang
In the first three quarters of 2025, our global module shipments totaled 61.9 GW, once again ranking number one worldwide. Driven by our outstanding product performance and strong presence in high-value overseas markets, gross margin improved sequentially for two consecutive quarters to 2.9% in the second quarter and 7.3% in the third quarter.
Net loss continued to narrow sequentially. We are pleased to see that our intensive efforts devoted to storage R&D and products in the past two years started to bear fruit gradually.
In the first three quarters, our cumulative energy storage system ESS shipments exceeded 3.3 GWh, increasing significantly for two consecutive quarters. This, combined with the rising share of overseas markets, has helped the profitability of our energy storage business improve noticeably.
Considering that energy storage products have a process of installation, commissioning, and acceptance, there will be a lag in revenue recognition in our financial statements. We are confident that as economies of scale accelerate and competitiveness continues to improve, our energy storage business will more than double next year.
Its revenue contribution is expected to rise significantly and serve as a key driver of our overall gross margin expansion.
Xiande Li
二季度和三季度,我们的组件开工率维持在合理水平。三季度以来,上游硅料、硅片、电池环节有一定幅度的涨价,组件价格稳中有升。由于136号文下各省的竞价机制仍在落地中,央国企重磅顶层项目收益率的测算和商业模式需要一定的时间,预计需求的释放仍需要一定时间。但行业从原材料环节呈现积极的信号,受原材料产量价格上涨,推动海外组件价格也有所上涨。
Stella Wang
In the second and third quarter, we continue to keep module utilization rates at a reasonable level. Since the third quarter, prices of polysilicon, wafers, and cells have all risen, and module prices showed some upward trends.
Given that bidding rules in all provinces are still in the implementation phase, central and state-owned enterprises need some time to recalculate their IRR returns and adjust their business models for end projects. It is expected that demand will take some time to release.
However, we have seen some positive signals in the raw material segment. Supported by rising raw material prices, module prices in overseas markets have also increased.
Xiande Li
高功率的产能的升级成为加快行业高质量发展的重要方向,这也契合了终端客户对高中力产品的需求,以实现更可靠的投资回报。我们作为行业率先进行产能升级的公司,三季度的高功率产品升级稳步推进,目前已交付了部分高功率的飞虎系列产品,相较未升级的产品溢价在1到2个美分。随着最高功率可达到670瓦的飞虎三系列产品逐渐完成升级改造,我们预计2026年的高功率产品的出货量账簿占比会逐渐提升,2026年全年高功率产品的出货占比不低于60%。
Stella Wang
The upgrade towards high-power production capacity has become an important direction for accelerating industry high-quality development. This technical upgrade also meets end customers' demand for high-power products to achieve more reliable investment returns.
As an industry pioneer to upgrade existing TOPCon capacity through technology enhancements, we made steady progress in high-power products upgrade in the third quarter. We have already delivered some high-power products carrying a premium of 1 to 2 US cents per watt compared to the conventional products.
As upgrade of the third-generation Tiger Neo products with maximum power of 670 Wp is completed, we expect the shipment proportion of high-power products to increase quarter-over-quarter next year, accounting for 60% or above in 2026.
Xiande Li
136号文取消强制配储后,国内储能正在加速市场化。峰谷价差的拉大,叠加容量电价、容量补偿等政府支持,多个省份的独立储能项目可实现较好的经济性。在经济性和能源转动的转型的驱动下,海外如欧洲、亚太、中东、拉美等地区需求也多点开花。在美国,AI算力中心的迅速扩张及制造业带来制造业增长带来前所未有的电力需求,而本土电力供应面临挑战,光伏加储能成为更安全、更易部署的方案。预计全球储能需求将在新能源渗透率提升与储能系统成本下降的双重驱动下,迎来了爆发性的增长。这也充分印证了我们在储能业务的前瞻性布局是顺应行业发展的正确选择。我们也积累了长期的竞争优势,作为光伏领域的头部企业,我们拥有长期积累的渠道、品牌和客户资源优势,可以为客户提供本土化一站式的光储解决方案。在制造端,公司目前拥有12个吉瓦时的系统集成产能和5个吉瓦的电芯产能,通过自研技术突破,不断提升储能产品的性能和竞争力。市场上,我们聚焦了高毛利的海外市场,重点覆盖了大型储能和工商业项目,交付周期较长但需求旺盛,为公司储能的业务提供了稳定且可持续的增长动力。
Stella Wang
Since market-based electricity reform has removed the mandatory energy storage requirements, China's energy storage industry is accelerating its market-oriented development. With the increasing gap between peak and off-peak electricity prices and the implementation of policies such as capacity pricing and capacity compensation, independent energy storage projects in multiple provinces can achieve sound economic returns.
Driven by both improving economics and a global energy transition, demand is increasing in Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Latin America. In the US, the rapid expansion of AI data centers has led to an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, straining domestic electricity supply.
Solar-plus-storage has, therefore, emerged as a safer and more easily deployed solution. We expect global demand for energy storage to experience explosive growth, driven by increasing renewable energy penetration and declining storage system costs.
This, once again, validates our strategic decision to invest in the energy storage business in line with our industry trends, and it has helped us build a long-term competitive advantage. As a leading enterprise in the PV sector, we possess long-established advantages in channels, brand reputation, and customer resources, enabling us to provide a localized, one-stop solar-plus-storage solutions.
On the manufacturing side, we currently have 12 GWh of pack capacity and 5 GWh of battery cell capacity and continuously improve product performance through self-developed technological breakthroughs. On the market side, we focus on high-margin overseas markets, particularly utility-scale and industry and commercial projects.
Although delivery cycles are relatively long, demand remains strong, providing stable and sustainable growth momentum for the company's energy storage business. 综合来看,全球供应链正在加快重塑,供需平衡逐渐改善。随着技术的升级,推动行业高质量的发展,高功率、高价值的产品市场份额将逐渐扩大,成为价格的引领者。随着招投标市场竞争更加注重技术能力和长期可靠性等综合能力好的头部企业,银行融资等资源也更向头部企业集中,龙头份额有望进一步的提升。凭借强大的技术能力、长期的可靠性以及我们光储一体化业务的全球多样化,我们的竞争力将进一步增强,并有望在行业的下一轮上升周期中受益。
In summary, the global supply chain is reshaping, and the balance between supply and demand is gradually improving. As technological upgrades accelerate industry high-quality development, the market share of high-power and high-value products will continue to expand and become a dominant force in market pricing.
As market competition, particularly in project bidding, increasingly favors leading enterprises that demonstrate strong technological capabilities and long-term reliability, resources such as bank financing are also concentrating towards leading enterprises, further strengthening their market share. With strong technological capabilities, long-term reliability, and global diversification of our energy storage business, we are well positioned to further strengthen our competitiveness and benefit from the industry's next upward cycle.
近期国家对新能源行业支持力度持续加强,十五五规划意见明确提出加快能源供应端与消费端的低碳化。国家发改委、能源局近期发布了关于促进新能源消纳与电力调控的指导意见,进一步加强了储能在新型能源体系建设中的关键作用。我们预计这些措施将进一步提升中国新能源行业的竞争力,推动行业长期回归到健康合理的发展发展轨迹。 The 15th Five-Year Plan proposed accelerating the decarbonization of both the energy supply and consumption sectors.
The National Development and Reform Commission, NDRC, and the National Energy Administration, the NEA, have also recently issued the guidance on promoting renewable energy integration and power system regulation, further emphasizing the critical role of energy storage in the construction of a new energy system. We expect these measures will further strengthen the competitiveness of China's renewable energy sector and steer the industry back onto a healthy and rational development path.
Xiande Li
展望四季度及全年,我们将积极持续响应行业高质量发展的要求,合理控制开工率,聚焦高效产能的升级改造,同时积极应对海外的政策的变化,保障对客户的可持续供应。我们也会不断强化在技术创新和全球化方面的竞争优势,实现规模和利润的平衡,巩固龙头地位。2025年全年,含组件、电池、硅片的总出货量预计将在85个吉瓦到100个吉瓦,全年储能出货预计在6个吉瓦。
Stella Wang
Looking forward to the fourth quarter and full year, we will continue to actively respond to the industry's call for rational development by maintaining reasonable production levels and focusing on upgrading and transforming high-efficiency capacity. At the same time, we will proactively adapt to changes in overseas policies to ensure sustainable supply for our customers.
We will keep strengthening our competitive advantages in technology and global operations, achieve a balance between scale and profitability, while consolidating our industry-leading position. We expect the total shipments, including solar modules, cells, and wafers, to be between 85 GW to 100 GW for the full year of 2025, and ESS shipments to be 6 GWh for the full year 2025.
Gener Miao
Thank you, Mr. Li.
Total shipments were 21.5 GW in the third quarter, with module shipments accounting for 93%. By the end of third quarter, we became the first module manufacturer in the industry to achieve a cumulative global module shipments of 370 GW, with total cumulative shipments of Tiger Neo series surpassing 200 GW, the best-selling module series in history.
In terms of geographic mix, in the third quarter, we focused on high-value overseas markets, with shipments accounting for over 65%, achieving strong growth in Asia Pacific, emerging markets, and Europe. Shipments to the US were nearly 1.3 GW in the third quarter, doubled sequentially.
Against the backdrop of electricity market reform, customer demand for high-power products continues to rise. Our high-power Tiger Neo 3.0 series, with its bifaciality rate of 85% and excellent low-light performance, can generate stable electricity during dawn, dusk, and cloudy weather, effectively extending power generation hours.
At the same time, in a market environment with increasing volatility in electricity spot prices, the outstanding power generation performance of Tiger Neo 3.0 enables more power generation during peak price periods in the morning and evening, creating higher yield and more reliable returns for clients. According to our outdoor field test data in Chengdu, China, under low-light conditions such as dawn and dusk, Tiger Neo achieves a 6 7.2% gain compared to BC products, and in Kagoshima, Japan, Tiger Neo shows 10.79% yield gain over BC products in low-light conditions.
In the third quarter, we delivered some high-power products that carries 1 to 2 US cents premium compared to conventional products. We expect our high-power Tiger Neo 3.0 products with maximum power of up to 670 Wp to be produced in large scale next year, further strengthening our competitiveness on the product side.
We once again topped the PV Tech 2025 Q3 Module Tech Bankability Report with AAA rating, thanks to our solid operational capabilities, outstanding technological innovation, and strong recognition from global customers, as one of the few enterprises to continuously maintain top-tier creditworthiness and technological strength in the global PV industry. In the latest release of BNEF Energy Storage Tier 1 List of 4Q 2025, we were recognized as Tier 1 energy storage provider for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Our continuous efforts in sustainable development have also earned international recognition repeatedly. In the recent MSCI ESG rating, we were upgraded to an A rating, maintaining our position in the top tier of ESG performers in the global PV industry.
Additionally, our S&P CSA score continued to improve from 2024, rising significantly to 78, far ahead of the industry. On the demand side, we expect global PV demand to slightly contract in 2026.
In China, due to the implementation of policy reforms 136, the pace of carrying out the 15th Five-Year Plan, as well as industry self-discipline and anti-involution measures, demand is expected to slightly decrease year-over-year in 2026. Markets outside China are generally expected to remain healthy.
In the mid to long term, the urgent power demand from AI data centers, combined with most countries' commitments to reduce carbon emissions, will jointly drive growth in the global deployment of clean energy and new grid infrastructure over the next 3 to 5 years. The Information Office of State Council recently released the white paper of China's Actions on Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality, which emphasizes that energy storage is a key support for building a new type of power system and advocates actively developing the renewable energy plus energy storage solutions.
In the United States, we are already seeing some tech giants deploying co-located or nearby solar-plus-storage at their data centers to meet rapidly growing electricity needs. We believe renewable energy plus energy storage has become an inevitable and accelerating trend.
We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the US market. Although trade policies impose certain constraints on the manufacturing side, we have taken proactive measures and made early strategic deployments, adjusting our manufacturing and supply chain in response to policy changes to provide US customers with long-term, stable, and reliable solutions.
We are confident that, leveraging our advantages in technology innovation, high-power products, and a global network, we can continue to satisfy our global clients' demand for clean, safe, high-efficiency, and reliable integrated solar and storage solutions. We will also continue to improve our competitiveness in global markets.
Pan Li
Thank you, Gener. We're pleased that our focus on high-performance products and high-value markets, as well as our efforts in cost and expenses control, have delivered steadily improved financial results.
Gross profit margin turned positive in the second quarter and continued to improve by 4.4 percentage points in the third quarter. Net loss and adjusted net loss narrowed sequentially for two consecutive quarters.
Operating cash flow was 340 million in the third quarter, improving significantly quarter-over-quarter. Operating cash flow is expected to be positive for the full year '25.
Moving to the details in the third quarter, total revenue was 2.27 billion, down 10% sequentially and 34% year-over-year. The sequential decrease was mainly due to a decrease in the solar module shipments, and a year-over-year decrease was primarily due to a decrease in average selling price of solar modules.
Gross margin was 7.3%. The sequential improvement was mainly due to a lower unit cost of product sold, and a year-over-year decrease was mainly due to the decrease in the ASP of solar modules.
Total operating expenses was 363 million, up 30 36% sequentially and down 32% year-over-year. The sequential increase was primarily due to an increase in the impairment of long-lived assets, while the year-over-year decrease was mainly due to a decrease in shipping cost of solar module shipment decrease and the average freight rate declined during the third quarter this year.
Total operating expenses accounted for 16% of total revenues, compared to 10.6% in the second quarter and 15.4% in the third quarter last year. Operating loss margin was 8.7%, compared with operating loss margin of 7.7% in the second quarter this year and operating profit margin of 0.3% in the second quarter last year.
Moving to the balance sheet, at the end of the third quarter, our cash and cash equivalents was 3.3 billion, compared with 3.4 billion in the end of the second quarter of '25 and 3.2 billion at the end of third quarter of '24. AR turnover days were 105 days, compared with 97 days in the second quarter.
Inventory turnover days were 90 days, compared with 66 days in the second quarter this year. At the end of the third quarter, total debt was 6.4 billion, compared to 6.7 billion at the end of second quarter.
Net debt was 3.1 billion, compared with 3.3 billion at the end of second quarter this year. Debt conditions improved sequentially.
Let me go into more details of the second quarter. Total revenue was 2.51 billion, up 30% sequentially and down 25% year-over-year.
The sequential increase was primarily due to increase in the solar module shipments, while the year-over-year decrease was mainly due to a decrease in the ASP of solar modules. Gross margin was 2.9%.
The sequential improvement was mainly due to a lower unit cost of products sold, while year-over-year decrease was mainly due to the decrease in the ASP of modules. Total operating expenses were 266 million, down 24% sequentially and 15% year-over-year.
The sequential decrease was mainly due to the reduced expected credit loss expense in the second quarter, while the year-over-year decrease were mainly due to three points: a decrease in the impairment of long-lived assets, reduced expected credit loss expenses, and decreased shipping cost as the average freight rate declined during the second quarter this year. Total operating expenses accounted for 10.6% of total revenues, compared to 18.1% in the first quarter of '25 and 16.9% in the second quarter of '24.
Operating loss margin was 7.7%, compared to 20.7% in the first quarter this year and 4.7% in the second quarter last year. Moving to the balance sheet, at end of the second quarter, our cash and cash equivalents was 3.4 billion, compared with 3.77 billion at the end of the first quarter this year and 1.9 billion at the end of second quarter last year.
AR turnover days were 97 days, compared with 111 days in the first quarter this year. Inventory turnover days was 66 days, compared to 84 days in the first quarter.
Our operating efficiency is improving. At the end of the second quarter, total debt was 6.7 billion, compared to 6.4 billion at the end of the first quarter.
Net debt was 30 3.3 billion, compared to 2.6 billion at the end of the first quarter this year. This concludes our prepared remarks.
We're now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question.
Your first question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.
Philip Shen
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions.
First one's on your gross margins. Can you share some color on what you see as the difference between yours and Canadian Solar's?
They reported recently 15%, you guys have Q3 gross margins at about 7%. What was the main driver, you think, for that underperformance?
Then can you provide some color on the storage and solar gross margin difference? Then finally, what do you think margins look like for Q4?
Thanks.
Charlie Cao
Thanks, Philip. I think, compared to our peer, particularly the Canadian Solar, the gross margin difference is the different revenue contribution from the energy storage business.
If you look at the Jinko, quarter by quarter, we did improve gross margin dramatically. It's coming from majority, the module business.
For the energy storage sectors, we did want to have a very, very positive update. I think in the prepared remarks of Chairman Li and we think our energy storage business is ready for the dramatically growth in next year 2026.
We are expecting significant revenue contributions and gross margin expansions. The storage is really in supply shortage.
This year we shipped around 6 GWh shipments, and next year we expect to double, at least double. In terms of revenue recognition, it's a little bit different because the revenue is recognized for the shipments with the final acceptance.
It's a little bit delayed, one quarter to two quarters. For the energy storage business, gross margin is a decent level.
We expect at least 15%, 15%, 20% gross margin. Looking forward, particularly for the ESS business out of China, and we target 70%, 80% the ESS business next year.
In terms of revenue contribution from the energy storage business, we expect 10% to 15%. The revenue from ESS business compared to the total revenues of Jinko next year.
Actually we think our business is shifting from purely module business to module-plus-ESS next year.
Philip Shen
Great, Charlie. Thank you very much for the color.
Can you share also a little bit more color on your view you've given us some color on the storage market. You shared that next year it could be 6 GWh.
What might be geographic shipping mix be for 2026? How much to the US, how much to China, and then maybe Europe and others?
Thanks.
Charlie Cao
Yeah. This year is 6 GWh, and next year is double, okay?
That is the total volume. In terms of geographical distributions, non-China, roughly we think 70%, 80%, including United States.
United States, we are in discussing with a lot of potential customers, and it's developing. We believe, step-by-step we are getting more and more orders from US.
We have a strong pipeline, particularly I think from Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
Philip Shen
Got it. Great.
Thank you. Shifting over to one more question here on the foreign entity of concern for the US, FEOC.
Can you help us understand You plan to You have a big business shipping US sorry, shipping solar modules to the US. Now you plan to ship batteries also to the US.
Can you help us understand how you plan to comply with foreign entity of concern requirements for the US market? Thanks.
Charlie Cao
Yeah. Looking for the next year, we don't believe there's a lot of negative impact from the FEOC, let's say OBBBA compliance.
We are seeing a lot of safe harbor projects, particularly for the solar plus some storage projects. We committed from long term and I think we reshape our supply chain globally and we are exploring options for our solar module facilities in Florida.
We think from the long term, and there is going to be demand for both FEOC and non-FEOC. If there is some kind of development, particularly for transforming our solar module facilities in the United States to the non-FEOC entities and we will let investor know.
We have been in the process to discussion with potential investors.
Philip Shen
Got it. Okay.
Thank you, Charlie. I'll pass it on.
Charlie Cao
Welcome.
Operator
Your next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies.
Alan Lau
Hello. This is Alan from Jefferies.
Thanks for taking my question. My first question is about the ESS business.
Would like to know if there's any discussion with any of the AI data centers or hyperscaler clients, and what type of demand are they requiring? Are they more like 2 to 4 hours of grid capability compatible demand, or it's more like even longer hours of storage required?
Thank you.
Charlie Cao
We think the AI-driven data center is going to put a lot of demands for the global electricities from long term. Our ESS team is in discussion with potential pipelines for the data center including US, Europe, and including China.
It's still in the progress, and we believe we are able to reach a significant milestone early next year.
Alan Lau
That's clear. Thanks.
In relation to the geographical breakdown, would like to know if the gross margin of ESS is similar across the regions or it should be higher in Europe or US? How do you see the margins in different regions that you operate?
Oh,
Charlie Cao
you mean the ESS margin, different regions, right? It's depending on different markets, and China is still a relatively low, but I think it's recovering a little bit, ESS is very competitive in China.
Europe and US, we think that it's still a decent gross margin. The Middle East a little bit low.
I think China and Middle East is ESS, the pricing, the competitiveness, and the margin is relatively low to other regions. We think it's still a very healthy business and near next 2 years.
Alan Lau
Yep. Would like to know on the cost side of ESS, because I've noticed that the cost of raw materials are increasing or surging.
Any plans to lock in any raw materials, or how's your view on different raw materials like batteries or even more upstream battery materials like lithium carbonate, etc.?
Charlie Cao
Yeah. Because the strong demand, the materials are likely upwards.
Firstly, we have 5 GW battery cell capacities, and which put us relatively advantage. The second one, we partner with key materials suppliers.
The second one, when we negotiate contract, we did anticipate some kind of material costs upwards. It's a combination.
I think it's a little bit challenge, but we think we can manage and how to minimize the impact of the material pricing.
Alan Lau
I see. Then my next question is about the demand on the solar module market.
How do you see the demand growth next year for maybe both solar and ESS? What is the growth rate you see?
Gener Miao
For the demand side, definitely we should look in separately for both for PV and BESS, right? For PV side, I think we are in a conservative way, we are expecting a more or less flat year in 2026 versus 2025.
The main reason is because China demand, we believe it will have a drop compared with 2025, which because of weight of China demand is so high in the global demand. Which drive, even with the other markets are booming or other markets are growth, we still expect the total demand of the global in the PV industry for next year will be more or less flat year.
However, when we look into the BESS, it is in a different scenario, right? With more and more renewable installed, the grid needs more security for the BESS contribution.
Definitely we are seeing a sharp increase for the BESS side. That's why from the BESS, we are still keeping a optimistic opinion or expectation for next year's installation.
If we need to quantify that, we think it will be at least a 25% increase for the BESS year-over-year.
Alan Lau
I see. Thanks, Gener.
Would like to know what type of installation in China are you looking at? Because there are different numbers flowing around, are you looking at low 200s or even below 200 GW in China?
Gener Miao
I am not that conservative for China because when recently I visited a lot of our distributors and even installers in China in all the different provinces, I think most of them are still keeping an optimistic view for next year. Having said all those, I believe that it will be around, let's say module-wise, it will be around mid-200 to, let's say, around 250 about.
If we're looking to the grid connection number, it should be somewhere around low
Alan Lau
200s. Oh, that's very clear.
Thanks a lot. I think my last question is on the buyback.
Would like to know if the company would start buyback after the blackout period, which is basically this result, and how is the pace of the buyback will look like? Thank you.
Charlie Cao
We monetize 3%, right, A shares and I think end of October, and we are in the process to get money out of China and after the regulatory approval. We have paid the, withholding tax, and we expect to get money by the end of this month, and very soon.
For the shareholder, shareholder returns, and we we commit at least $100 million US dollars a year. We had declared dividend earlier this year, and we we bought some shares, certain shares, and I think last quarter, in in the middle of this year, and after the window, after early release.
We we plan to to repurchase shares through out of the end of the year.
Alan Lau
How much shares have been purchased, or will the company looking to basically buy all the remaining amount in the buyback program in the remaining 1 month?
Charlie Cao
Yes, and I think we plan to use the proceeds from the monetization A shares as the key funding and which is available, and it's around $170, $80 million US dollars. I think, depending on how the market move, but definitely we will repurchase shares by the end of this year.
Roughly, I think this year, $100 million US dollars, and we had declared dividend, I think $50, $60 million. That's our base plan.
Alan Lau
I see. That's clear.
Thank you.
Charlie Cao
We will
Alan Lau
see,
Charlie Cao
yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. It's a year-over-year plan, and next year it's roughly the same plan.
Alan Lau
I see. That's clear.
Thank you. Thanks, Charlie.
Charlie Cao
Thank you.
Operator
Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Rajiv Chaudhri with Sunsara Capital.
Rajiv Chaudhri
Good morning. My first question is regarding your guidance for module shipments for the fourth quarter.
It's a very big range, 18 to 33 GW, and you have essentially kept to the same range that you gave for the full year back in early part of the year. Now we are halfway through the fourth quarter.
Could you help us narrow down what the range would be for Q4 for module shipments?
Gener Miao
I think we will close to the lower end of the range. I think because of the regulatory requirement, we have to keep that range as before, but from the operational level, we believe the lower end of the range is more, let's say, realistic.
Rajiv Chaudhri
I see. Related to that, what do you think the global shipments of modules would be for the industry as a whole in 2025?
Gener Miao
Technically, we believe from the production-wise, we are looking at roughly 700 GW. That's the high-level numbers we are estimating for the whole industry.
Rajiv Chaudhri
Do you believe that 700 GW would actually have been shipped out by the industry as well, or that was just the production?
Gener Miao
I think it's more closer to the production side, but because every company has a slightly different ways to calculate or announce their shipment numbers, so that's why it's difficult to figure out what's the real shipment number. Production-wise, I think the number is more realistic.
Rajiv Chaudhri
I see. Okay.
Moving on to another question relating to CapEx, could you give us the CapEx target for 2025 and also for 2026?
Charlie Cao
It's it's roughly RMB5 billion, RMB this year and next year. Next year, we we didn't have any, plan to, expand, capacity, and it's a kind of upgrade to the next-generation TOPCon technology.
It's going to have significant, high-end, high-power output solar modules is we are able to provide to our customers, next year, roughly 60%. With, with price premium and relatively good margin contributions next year, quarter over quarter, the capacity for the high high-end, upgrade high-end module capacity will be released quarter by quarter.
Rajiv Chaudhri
Charlie, just to be clear, this year the CapEx is RMB5 billion, and next year it will be flat at RMB5 billion?
Charlie Cao
Roughly. Next year I talk about it.
This year, it's a roughly payment of outstanding amount RMB5 billion. Next year, we are doing the upgrade existing capacities and to the next higher level TOPCon capacity.
We foresee a lot of strong demands and with higher module price and higher gross margin contributions.
Rajiv Chaudhri
You made a very interesting point that operating cash flow will be positive in 2025. It looks like you will be generating operating cash flow positive in 2026 as well, and maybe substantially higher than 2025 because the gross margin will be higher.
Is that a correct assessment?
Charlie Cao
Yes. That's right.
We talk about, firstly, I think the catalyst is first one is ESS storage business next year. We are looking to 10% to 15% revenue contributions from ESS with decent gross margin and positive net profitabilities.
Second one is module business. We have I think the most advanced TOPCon upgrade capacities in the industries and developed by ourselves for the technology.
Which will roughly have 60% shipments of the modules coming from the next-generation Jinko-developed TOPCon capacities with higher gross margins. Second one, we think from the high-level standards industry anti-involutions takes effect step-by-step.
The capacity will accelerate phase-out. Leading by the, on top of that, industry-leading self-disciplined control production volume and reasonable pricing based on the cost will take further, I think, enforcement.
Combined together, I think the industry is reaching the low point and is recovering step-by-step. Jinko, we are getting ready for the, from the market and product perspective.
Plus, we are shifting solar plus ESS story and business. The basic plan next year, we are confident that we are able to navigate the cycles and turn to positive early.
That's kind of the base plan next year.
Rajiv Chaudhri
You talked about the premium products and the fact that they've got premium pricing. On the cost side, will your costs for these premium products still be lower than the costs for the standard products this year?
In other words, do the costs keep going down even as the price goes up?
Charlie Cao
Yes. Initially, by design, the cost is a little bit higher, but a very, very small incremental cost.
Our R&D team continue to dive into the details and to try to further improve the costs. Back to your question, I think the high-end products, the cost is a very, very small incremental cost increase at the beginning.
We believe over time our R&D team with our operational teams will continue to improve the cost.
Rajiv Chaudhri
Final question, Charlie, on market share. In the past, in 2023 and '24, your global market share had gone up to somewhere between 15% and 16% of the global market.
This year, it is down a little bit, I guess partly because you have restrained production because of the pricing. Should we expect that your market share next year will go up again and maybe go up a lot more than 16% because the industry itself is consolidating?
What do you think the range for next year module shipments could be?
Charlie Cao
The consolidated market share, after consolidation or the industry consolidation and phase-out capacity, the industry turn into the kind of normal situation. It's for sure it's very good for Tier 1 companies.
If you look at the long term, we are confident and we will continue to penetrate the market share. Next year is still, I think from the top-down approach, and I think China will continue to implement the anti-involution policies.
We don't expect significant shipments increase for the module business, but ESS is a different story.
Rajiv Chaudhri
I see. Okay.
Thank you very much.
Charlie Cao
Welcome, Rajiv.
Operator
Your next question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.
Philip Shen
Hey, guys, thanks for taking my follow-up questions. I want to check back in with you on in terms of Q4 margin outlook.
What kind of solar module ASP could we see in Q4, and then what kind of margin for the overall quarter could we see? Thanks.
Charlie Cao
We expect relatively stable Q4 versus Q3. ESS business is contributing more revenues, and we estimate our ESS business in fourth quarter is going to reach positive profitability levels.
The contribution is not significant, but next year is different story. Right, we have talked about.
For the module business, we expect relatively stable.
Philip Shen
Got it. Thanks.
Then can you talk about module ASPs for Q1 and Q2 of next year and then also the trajectory for margins as you blend in more batteries? Thanks.
Gener Miao
Phil, I think it's difficult to share those numbers or estimations right now, because what is happening is like some of the key market there are some important policies upcoming. For example, the US, the guidance of the FEOC or material assistance or even upcoming 232, which will significantly impact the market prices.
Like in China, there are anti-involution policies and there's even more rumors coming out regarding the polysilicon, even to the other part of the manufacturing value chain as well. Those changes could significantly change the market price overnight.
That's why we believe it's too early to share our estimation on the prices for next year.
Philip Shen
Gener, that makes sense. You talked about the rumors on poly.
Can you give us a little bit more color on that? Thanks.
Gener Miao
I don't have too much more to share based on there's a lot of rumors on the market or on the internet, I don't know what you're referring to.
Philip Shen
I was just you mentioned it, I thought I would try to see if there's more color. No,
Gener Miao
we are not part of the game, I don't have too much to share with everyone. Thank you for your question.
Philip Shen
Yep, no problem. Okay.
Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Your next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
Tyler Bisset
Hey, guys. This is Tyler Bisset on for Brian.
Thanks for taking our question. Just quick housekeeping questions.
Can you share what was D&A and CapEx in 2Q and 3Q?
Charlie Cao
You mean the absolute number or percentage, right? Hello.
Hello.
Tyler Bisset
The actual number.
Charlie Cao
I think in the financial statement, you can check out the financial statement, the R&D and the operating expenses and we have disclosed quarter by quarter. What would be your key question you want to explore?
Tyler Bisset
D&A and CapEx in 2Q and 3Q, the absolute numbers.
Charlie Cao
D&A, depreciation. You mean depreciation or CapEx?
Tyler Bisset
Depreciation,
Charlie Cao
and then
Tyler Bisset
separate with CapEx.
Charlie Cao
Okay. Depreciation by quarter, I think, is roughly $300 million US dollars a quarter.
CapEx, I think the first half year, we spent roughly RMB2 billion. All right.
Tyler Bisset
Thank you.
Charlie Cao
Okay.
Operator
That is our last question, and that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating.
You may now disconnect.
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