DSV A/S

DSV A/S

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Feb 02Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 4, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the DSV annual report 2025 conference call. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator.

I would like to remind you that all participants have been in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session.

You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and 0.

The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it is my pleasure to hand over to Jens Lund, Group CEO.

Please go ahead, sir.

Jens Lund

Good morning. Thank you for joining us here on this investor presentation that we will have in relation to the publication of our full-year 2025 results.

Today I'm joined by Michael Ebbe, and we will basically go through the presentation as we normally do, and once we've completed the presentation, we'll be happy to take your questions. If we skip to slide number one, there's just the reference to the forward-looking statements that I would like you to pay attention to, and then of course the agenda as well.

The highlights of of the year I think is clearly of course for us that basically we now can announce that we complete the Schenker integration at the end of 2026. I will say that both the feedback from the employees and certainly also from the customers has been very constructive because we managed to take out the uncertainty both for employees, but also for customers.

I'll say a little bit more about the integration on the next slide, I'll I'll move on to the financial performance. It's it's been a tough market.

You can also see from the reporting in the last quarter that there's a lot of headwind on FX, plus all the geopolitical issues as well, and also yields of course under pressure as well. Very happy to to deliver on our guidance.

Furthermore, of course we can see that actually we do have good progress both on the road side and also on the contract logistics side as well, so we're very pleased with that. On the cash flow, at the end of the day, we have to transform what we're doing into cash flow, and it's really great to see that all the efforts we put in, they also are visible in our cash flow statement.

Of course, the EPS growth, this is what we're aiming for as well, and we are well on track to deliver on that in in '26, also here we are pleased. On the outlook, 23 to 25.5 billion, I think if you take into consideration the significant headwind on FX, I think actually that we we are satisfied with the guidance.

Of course, it's it's a it's a tough market, but overall we think it's gives a good indication that we manage to drive the company forward also in '26. Then the synergies, we're going to achieve the 9 billion.

We are confident about that. As we speak, we've actually already now made significant progress on the countries where we go live also here in '26, we have a high certainty or conviction that we're going to deliver on those numbers.

Here's just a little slide on the Schenker integration so that it's clear that, in in '25, the numbers, they include almost 1 billion in impact, and then of course there's going to be impact here also in in '26, as you can see, and then we will have sort of the full impact in '27. You have to remember when you integrate a country that it may be that we go live in the country, but it will take some months, sometimes 3, 4, 5 months before the integration is actually completed in the country and we've moved everything together.

That's also when we then realize the synergies. Sometimes we also have to go through due procedure with the employees because of sort of the arrangements that you would have in the different jurisdictions.

It's always a little bit back-end loaded, the impact of of the the synergies, and that's also what you see in this table here. If we look at the financial highlights, I think we've managed to basically grow our GP and also grow basically our our EBIT as well.

The guidance is also mentioned over here to the right in the column, and I think the presentation here is is fairly self-explanatory, I won't necessarily mention the numbers, but sort of skip on to the Air & Sea slide, where you can see that a significant headwind on the Air & Sea side. If you look at the numbers, it's clear that the GP is is very much being, what can I say, a little bit under pressure because of the yields, not least on on ocean freight, but also on on air freight.

Here you have to think about a little bit the FX as well that plays a role. Conversion ratio of course due to the full-year impact of of Schenker sort of coming in so that it will come down to the trough and then it will start to go up.

This is quite normal for an integration, and of course that then drags the margin down, as you can see. There's nothing in the things that we are seeing that indicates that we're not going to get the productivity back to the levels that we've seen before.

If we look at the air freight market, I think, you can see the GP here of course on the left, and on the right, there's been some discussions also about, the the yield of 7,600. Of course, there's some Schenker impact that where there's been lower GP than than we have, mainly because of a lower VAS component, less value-added services, and then of course also the FX impact as well.

I think that's probably, what can I say, the most important takeaway from this slide. If we look at the ocean freight, of course you can see the GP here takes a hit.

The VAS element of what we're doing, the value-added services, it's been fairly stable throughout the period, but of course the freight markup, when the rates, they compress, then the markup on the freight side, it also compresses as well, and that's really what we see and what we're doing. Here of course the FX part also plays a role, but you will also have the of course the fees at origin or post landed depending on how the trade lane looks that, might be in in currency where it doesn't have an FX impact, but the linehaul and and typically either at origin or at destination, you will have FX impact for both of them.

That's a little bit on the on the sea freight. I think on road, it's you see we are almost 1.5 times up on on the revenue, of course also on the GP.

You have to remember that Schenker has more groupage, more system freight, there's more infrastructure, the GP also has to be higher, and then of course that we manage, what can I say, to convert an important part to EBIT is definitely important for us as well. I think if we look at sort of the the gross margin, it will continue a little bit up in the next quarter because you get the impact of the of basically Schenker being included in the numbers as well and the conversion ratio on a good trajectory, and of course operating results also trending upwards.

They also have to because we have significant infrastructure in relation to the whole network product that we have. I would just like to mention as well on the road side that we managed to divest US truck.

It was an operation, hard asset operation in the US, and we couldn't operate that with a satisfactory financial outcome, we found a new owner for it, and we hope that it will be successful there, and we're very pleased that we managed to finish or complete this transaction. On Contract Logistics, you can also see that we are not 1.5 times up on size, but but almost, and definitely growing our business significantly, also on the GP side doing really well.

Then of course the conversion from GP till EBIT here is also some economies of scale, and and plus that we've actually sanitized also some of our contracts, etc., so that we managed to produce the the outcome that we all really need to see from Contract Logistics, where you need to improve the return on invested capital. One thing is actually that we have a plan to reduce the number of facilities, we're working on that, but also then that we drive the operational results up through very intense focus on productivity.

Really happy to see that this development is is going in this direction, because I think that's something that we'd all been looking for. Now, I will hand over to Michael and he will tell you a little bit about the numbers.

Michael Ebbe

Thank you, Jens. A quick run-through of of the numbers.

Here's just a short comments on on the slide that that we have here for some of the KPIs of the that that we have. It's clear that when we have the annual report, you have seen the our nice annual report was announced this morning, that's clearly impacted by the the Schenker integration and contribution.

We can see that on the earnings, as Jens mentioned. You can also see it here on on the transaction costs, which relates to integration costs of 2.6 billion, more or less.

It's a little bit bigger Q4 due to the fast pace of integration that we have had. Then also, like Jens mentioned, the USA truck business that we have divested is presented at discontinued operations as is as was the case for the for the last quarter.

You also mentioned, Jens, that a thing that need to be taken into consideration here is the headwind that have predominantly in in Air & Sea and the US dollar and the dollar-related currencies. I think that also is notable here is the the tax rates.

Luckily, it's not every quarter we see a tax rate of 40% like we have this quarter, and this is of course not the long or even mid-term tax rate, but this is due to the integration that we have progressed so fast, this quarter is very, you can say, unusual for that one. Good to see that on our EPS that we are still on on on track for EPS accretion in 2026.

Jump to the next slide from the cash flow. You also really mentioned, Jens, and thank you for that, that we have had a strong cash flow both in the quarter, but also on the year.

This is something that has enabled us to repay some of the debt that we took when we acquired legacy Schenker. I think for the year, we've repaid 7 billion DKK and in the quarter more than 2 billion DKK, we are on track on on reducing our our debt.

Another thing that is worth mentioning here is, of course I'm very pleased with the improvement of net working capital, but I think we also said it last quarter that this is most likely not the sustainable to have it at around zero. Of course we work hard to to have it as low as possible, but the run rate will most likely be in the area of 2% to 3%, as we have talked about earlier.

Yes, and also last comment on that sign is of course the gearing ratio at 2.8. We are, as I said, we have already paid back quite significant amount and we continue on on that journey so we can head down to a lower gearing ratio than what we what we see so far.

Then what most likely interest you the most, this is the outlook for for 2026. Jens already mentioned that we have between 23 and 25.5 billion DKK in outlook.

Of course, it's a uncertainty period that that we have had in the quarter, also what we look into with all the the volatility that you mentioned, Jens. This is the best, you can say, guidance that that we believe that we can give right now.

We expect the air freight and sea freight market to grow around 2%, 3% in line with the GDP. Then of course the yield is something that that we are working on.

Of course, we like to have it as high as possible. We work, like you also mentioned, Jens, implementing the way that we produce in the DSV to focus on the value-added services, and that is hopefully something that will bring us to reach the guidance obviously.

Again, there are uncertainties, which is important to to notice. The tax rate also this year, in '26, will be impacted by the integration, again coming back to the fast pace of integration, it will have an impact on on the tax rate.

Then also again, Jens, you have already said it all, but it's important that you are aware that the US dollar-related headwind also of course impact our our guidance. I think it's when we estimate, it could be around 500 million DKK, so that is something that we have to consume or assume in into that numbers that we have.

Last page before we go to the Q&A, some of the key takeaways: fast progression on our most complex integration to date and still maintaining solid financial performance in challenging market environments; also updated, you can say, timeline on the Schenker integration, will be done end of year 2026 with full financial impact on the synergies in 2027; the financial performance is challenging, but very well driven especially by by the Contract Logistics and and the road business, which have a, you can say, higher ratio of our total EBIT than what we have been used to back in the days; and then the guidance that we have announced today, 23 to 25.5 billion DKK. That was it, and then we have left quite some time for for the Q&A session, so, yeah, please don't hesitate to press 1 and then ask the questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on the telephone.

You will hear a tone to confirm that you've entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2.

Questioners on the phone are requested to disable the loudspeaker mode while asking a question. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to maximum two questions.

Anyone with a question may press star and 1 at this time. Our first question comes from Alex Irving from Bernstein.

Please go ahead.

Alex Irving

Hi, good morning. Two for me, please.

First is on reconciling your messages on gross profit yields. The 2026 guide of flat in sea, slightly up in air is clear, but you've also stated your ambition to raise yields to pre-deal levels.

There's a two-part question on that ambition: how will you do it and when will you do it? My second question relates to the IT stack in Air & Sea.

How are you currently thinking about Tango and the relative merits of investing in and adopting that platform globally versus eventually retiring it and using CargoWise One globally? Thank you.

Jens Lund

Good. I can have a go at it.

I think the GP yields, if we sit and look at them, I think all the freight contracts are being renegotiated now. When we've looked into it in the past, I think there was a clear tendency on ocean freight that we produced significant higher level of value-added services than you did on the Schenker side, and Schenker had more focus on the freight markup if we look at it.

Of course we want to introduce our way of working and phase that in so that we basically do more work at origin, produce more services, but also at destination. That will phase in over the year, but we should have the full-year impact of these changes, I guess, up towards the summer holiday.

Then of course the freight markup, if that is, basically related to the container rates, then of course that will be under pressure, it will be, impacted by that. I don't really see that the rates, they are coming up, at least not in the short to medium term.

We will see the yields, they will not necessarily be the 5,000 that you had seen almost, but it will definitely be somewhat less. Then if we take the air freight, I think it's a little bit the same.

We have, what can I say, it's not that big a gap on the VAS side that you have on the value-added services on the air freight, and then you see the freight markup. Basically, when we took over Schenker, they had contracted longer than we had.

I think some of these things will impact it a little bit, that these contracts, they taper off and then we can procure at market, and then we will see how that translates in. We still believe that, what can I say, the figure around the 8,000 is realistic.

Of course, the FX can also play a trick here, which is also part of us being at 7,600 right now. There are many moving parts, but I think that gives you a pretty good idea.

Then when it comes to Tango and CargoWise One, I think we'd also written in the annual report that we have a data platform behind the platforms that allows us basically to keep both platforms in sync. Today now we then produce, because it is we have the customer integrations more ready on the DSV setup, but we still keep Tango running in certain areas, and then I think as you say, we will have to make a choice which platform to go to, and, it's very likely that we will over time gravitate towards our own solution, and that's what we're working on right now.

All

Alex Irving

right. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from James Hollins from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

James Hollins

Thanks very much. Jens, just on the synergies.

Clearly everyone and their, so-and-so is talking about the 9 billion, how high is it going to go? Are we officially having to move on from talking about what the 9 billion might be, whether it's 10, 11, 12, and really, just think about cost efficiencies or whatever the hell you want to call it beyond 2026 and the impact on '27, or ultimately, is there scope for that 9 billion to be guided, indicated whatever much higher as we go through kind of this year?

The second one, just on asset sales. Clearly, congratulations on USA Truck.

Are we still heading towards sort of 1.5 billion, I think you've talked about historically? Maybe give us an update on the speed of asset sales generally and obviously how that links to the trajectory for the return of buybacks maybe in H2 this year.

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think I'll answer the synergies, Michael, he can talk a little bit about the asset disposals afterwards. If we take the synergies first, normally when we do an integration, you're fairly right, then we have the initial plan which we present to you and which we're working on right now.

Then of course, once the business, it plateaus, and we've done the integration, of course there's an extra, what can I say, step in relation to that. Actually, we would like to combine that step with also what we call AI and tech as well, because we then take the platform that we've created and basically work on the transformation of that.

If you follow some of us on LinkedIn, you can see that we actually already moving ahead on that and mobilizing our leadership. We had the whole team, the whole management team from our the top 300 at an event where we start basically to mobilize for introducing, transformational ways of working in our company.

It's always hard, then do you want to label that phase two synergies or do you want to make label that AI and tech? We're actually going to talk to you on the Capital Markets Day about that and we can also label it both if you want, because it requires that basically we have a solid platform in place and that we can then develop that so that we drive the productivity out.

Given our volume, the investments we make in this should of course be something that makes a material difference also for the company. Then

James Hollins

the asset sales, Michael?

Michael Ebbe

Yes. It's correct that, yes, we have mentioned before that we want to on the legacy Schenker, we want to implement the DSV asset-light methodology to a wider extent that has been the case in Schenker.

That also means that we have divestment of around 1.5 to 2-ish billion euro that we are looking at. I think it's important to notice that much of it relates to sale and leaseback, we'll implement the flexible model with leases that we have on facilities and terminals.

That also means that you cannot take for granted that this 1.5 to 2-ish will reduce debt one to one. There will of course be some, you can say, impact that we take on the lease as well, and it is predominantly sale and leaseback transactions that we're working with currently.

James Hollins

Thanks very much. Jens, if I could, is there any chance, I guess you might say wait till May, if you were to move the 9 billion to a new number based on, let's call them additional synergies from AI and just working the business together, would you be happy to put a number on what the nine would be at in 2028 these days?

Jens Lund

I think we always look into something that is material. I think we're still, what can I say, we are actually have implemented some of it, but we also, what can I say, mobilizing for the different business areas so that we can project the outcome.

We see that there is room for significant improvement. It's I can put as much on that.

It's measured in billions. I can say that, but I don't really want to go too far into it now.

Of course, the technology today, it allows us to basically perform many of the tasks that we do in a much more efficient way than we could before, and it's clearly something that we embrace.

James Hollins

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS. Please go ahead.

Cristian Nedelcu

Hi, thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one, if I could come back to the air yield in Q4.

You've mentioned this contract duration mismatch at Schenker. Could you help us quantify a bit how much of a drag on the yield in Q4 that was?

In relation to your, as you mentioned on the slides, the aspiration on the mid-term to lift the combined yields in air, could you give us an anchor, what would an appropriate level be, 8,500 more or less, any indication? Secondly, if you allow me, on road and on the two divisions, Road and Air & Sea, could you please help us if we focus on the white-collar employees only, could you give us a rough split between production or revenue generation employees versus support and operational employees, what's the rough split in these divisions?

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think if we look at the road figures, you'll have to speak to the IR team to get that level of detail. I think they'll be happy to give you some kind of guidance on that.

If we look at the air yield, there are certain contracts that drag the yield down. I don't know exactly, I haven't calculated what part of the 8,000 down to 7,600 or whatever that is.

Right now we have 7,600, I think it is, in yield in the quarter. We've not made that calculation.

You can get that perhaps from the IR team as well. What I can say is that right now we are out contracting for volumes that we have to produce here in '26, and then many of some of the contracts actually, they continue all the way into '27.

There's been certain trade lanes where Schenker have been very, very long. We've never been as long as that.

These contracts, obviously given the market conditions, the rate has declined, they are out of the money. Then you can say, is it an onerous contract?

At the end of the day, then Michael can probably provide a little bit for it, but he cannot take the full pain away, and that's basically what you see reflected in the numbers. Then when we work on it, of course you have the FX drag, and it's very difficult to put a hard number on it.

We've tried it before, but there's a lot of moving parts in that number. Let's say the dollar goes down to below and we measured towards Danish krone, it's now 6.33, it was yesterday.

It cost 6.33 krone to buy $1, but if let's say it goes below six, then that will impact the yield. Last year in Q1, it was more than seven krone the dollar, when you translate the income into Danish, it means a lot.

The yield guidance here, we can see that there's less VAS, we can lift it on that. We're going to do that over the next couple of quarters.

Then of course the rest is moving parts. Yeah.

Cristian Nedelcu

Thank you. Can I add a quick one on your production cost per unit?

If we look pre-Schenker over the last 5 years in Air & Sea, your production cost per unit has increased 25%, 30%, and this is despite the fact that your volumes in Air & Sea have almost doubled before the Schenker acquisition. This is totally in contrast with the historical operating leverage you were showing when volumes increased.

Could you help us understand what explains this development? Is it fair to assume there are some low-hanging fruits in terms of improving productivity in Air & Sea or not really?

Jens Lund

I'm not really sure what period you are measuring on right now. Is the baseline the last quarter?

Because then of course

Cristian Nedelcu

the The last 5 years. The sort of 20 2019 to 2025 before the Schenker integration.

Jens Lund

Before the Schenker integration? I don't know what your numbers are, how they look.

I think if we look at the number of shipments per person per day, we've been driving it up. Then of course there are other factors if you sit and look at it over this period.

I don't know exactly what the baseline is for this calculation. We have to get the numbers.

It's really difficult to comment on, what can I say, this. I think we'll have to get the details in and then we'll be happy to provide you with an answer, and also break it down so that you get, what can I say, the proper response.

Cristian Nedelcu

Fair. Fair.

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Alexia Dogani from J.P. Morgan.

Please go ahead.

Alexia Dogani

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

Firstly, can we go back again a little bit on the yields for Q4? Clearly, that was a disappointment versus kind of what the market was expecting.

Can you help us understand what really drove this? Was it kind of the Schenker underlying, which was driven by the purchasing decision, and customer loss, you're saying there hasn't been anything significant, but GP is coming weaker than expected.

Can you help us understand again the moving parts? Then secondly, very encouraging your comments, Jens, about kind of the AI and tech opportunity.

Going through the accounts, you also highlighted, however, as a higher risk to the business. How should we kind of see those two parts, given what you just said in terms of kind of potential earnings upside?

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think if we look at the GP down, if you sit and look at it, it's clear. If we look at the customer base just to get this, what can I say, clear, we don't really see any customers that have left us.

Let's say, for example, that you work in automotive, it's not a small vertical for us. Let's say you are a German OEM that produces cars in China, then of course the demand for foreign cars in China has declined quite a bit, and they now procure local cars instead.

Of course, if you sit with that customer, you still have the trade lane, you still have the volume, but there's less volume to move. That is what we see on some of the accounts, that they are down-trading quite a bit.

Here of course automotive is probably the vertical where we've had the most headwind. It's not that we lose the customer, but that there's less work to be done.

Also many industrial companies have some headwind. Of course not the ones that are related to the technology boom that we see with data centers, but there are many other industrial companies that face some headwind.

Retailing has been fairly subdued as well, I think that's fair to say. We serve some of the luxury brands.

They're very important customers for us. I think you're probably also well aware that some of them perhaps have had a period where it's plateaued a little bit for them and perhaps even some of them contracting as well.

Some of these areas, you haven't lost a customer, but they ship a little bit less. That's something that we're feeling.

Then on top of that, for the GP, I think it's fair to say that it's crunch time when it comes to, for example, ocean freight, and then of course also the FX impact. If I look at all this, then it really becomes material when you look at the numbers.

I would probably say this is what is going on. It's in a way, it's a very rewarding market because you really have to earn it now and your service, has to stand the test.

Then Michael, you want to say something?

Michael Ebbe

There is also another thing that needs to be bear in mind when we talk about yield, that we also have some economies of scale for the yield. If we are able to push more volume through, that should also have a higher yield.

I would be careful to draw too much attention to Q4 isolated, but again, we can talk with Investor Relations of some of the building blocks. Lower volume will also sometimes mean pressure a little bit on yields because there are some of the facilities that we cannot use to the extent that we want to.

Jens Lund

AI and tech, I think it's clear that we have to drive the productivity up when it comes to this. There are domains where we are already doing that and we want to continue basically to have a significant focus on that, because at the end of the day, when the business is consolidated, then we have a certain GP and then of course we have to convert that into EBIT.

Here, it is important that we basically embrace technology for that. It's been something that we've been doing for years.

It's also part of our ability to acquire a company like Schenker and integrate it. It is because of the back end.

We're going to continue on that.

Alexia Dogani

Thank you. Just to help us a little bit with the math, can you give us an indication of the combined sea exposure to VAS, to value-added services, including Schenker?

Because if I read your comments correctly, you expect ocean rates to soften in '26, but that softening is offset by an increase in value-added services for the Schenker portion. If you can just give us the split roughly, it would be very helpful.

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I would say the VAS that we typically would have, given the yield that we have now, is probably two-thirds of the GP, and then one-third of the GP would then be, what can I say, the freight markup in what we have roughly. Sometimes the VAS has been perhaps down to the 60%, but now I think it's at a higher part because the freight markup is lower.

That would probably be a good indication for you to look at. Then if you look at the Schenker part, it's probably had 60/40 the other way around for the business.

We then have to lift that up, but then I think also the freight markup might decline a little bit on the Schenker part as well. They would have had a lower GP per unit than we've had overall.

I think that's the building blocks I can give to you.

Alexia Dogani

That's great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Ulrik Bak from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Ulrik Bak

Yes, hello, Jens and Michael. Just a question on your guidance.

Given the full-year impact from Schenker and the synergy uplift in '26 versus '25, the '26 guidance midpoint suggests negative EBIT growth for the organic business or the existing business that you also had last year. In that context, are you planning any cost measures to the existing part of the business on top of, yeah, the cost synergies?

Then second question is on the guidance sensitivity on the USD FX. Can you give some ballpark estimates if it deteriorates another 5% to 10% the USD, what it would mean for your guidance?

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think if we look at the negative growth, it's you're completely spot on. This is why we have to drive the productivity up and of course introduce more technology so that we get a higher productivity.

I don't know if so it's we can call it whatever you want, phase two synergies, AI and tech, or if we want to call it something else. It's in reality the same we're talking about.

We need to increase the productivity, and that's where our main focus is. Michael will take the other one.

Michael Ebbe

Of course there are many moving parts for the USD, but roughly, if we take, you can say, 4% decline compared to what we have in our base right now, that will mean maybe 500 million DKK. Of course there are some uncertainty.

Ulrik Bak

Thank you. Clear.

Operator

The next question comes from Jacob Lacks from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Jacob Pedersen

Hi, good morning. Thanks for your time.

With the integration now expected to be completed this year, can you give an update on how you're thinking about capital allocation? Is there hope that there can be another deal in in '27?

Then one on AI. You're US one of your US-based competitors talks a lot about AI and is showing particularly strong labor productivity within their truck brokerage business.

What segments do you think are the biggest opportunity for you, and are there any applications you're trialing to date that you're able to discuss here today?

Jens Lund

Yeah. We would hope there would be a deal in '27, it's clear we have many years ago laid out the way we allocate capital.

Let's say we have too much debt compared to our aspiration, we have a target of two times EBITDA, then we focus on repaying that debt. The next thing that we do is we can also of course look at it sooner, but we really prefer that we get the debt down to two times.

Then if we can do something to develop the business and invest in the business and allocate the capital, then of course that has a significant focus as a number two on that list. Then the remaining capital, we want to pay that back to the shareholders at the end of the day.

I think this capital allocation policy, I don't know, we wrote it more than 20 years ago, and I think we've stuck to it and I think we've got a great alliance with basically all our shareholders. I think that's yeah.

That's basically where we're at on that. What was the other question?

Michael Ebbe

AI.

Jens Lund

AI. Yeah.

There's a lot of talk of course of AI. I think if you look into the numbers of many of those companies, I was in Davos and they had AI, and then they had another thing they talked about, it was called ROAI.

Return on the assets invested. I think we still need to see that into the numbers of many companies.

I think the company you're referring to, you can probably see a little bit on the land-based business in the US, you can see that the productivity has come up. I think if we sit and look at where we can get the productivity up is in, domains where there's a lot of labor.

For example for us, we are on the custom side introducing what we call the AI factory, where we globalize the way we do customs formalities. We're more than 5,000 people doing that in the group today.

We could take a booking domain, which is also an area that we're working on right now and getting in control of and where we can introduce technology that then we transform the business. We can take a quote domain, it's another domain that is very important as well when you run the business, and take it domain by domain through the flow and basically get yourself organized so that you embrace the technology, not on a personal level.

When you introduce technology, you have to understand you can do it on enterprise level, regional level, you can do it on cluster, country, branch, department, personal level. The further you go down into the stack, the less benefit you get of it.

This is the reason why I think it's very wrong when people they say, "Well, we got thousands of agents," because the improvement, if they replicate the same process, is very slim. It has to be something that is done on enterprise level.

This is the only way we've managed to create value. This is also how you transform the business.

That's a little bit of AI, but I think I'll save the rest for the Capital Markets Day, otherwise there'll be nothing to talk about.

Jacob Pedersen

Great, thanks for your time.

Operator

The next question comes from Kristian Godiksen from SEB. Please go ahead.

Kristian Godiksen

Thank you. A couple of questions from my side.

Start off with wondering about the situation in the Red Sea, how that plays out. Both on your assumption in your guidance and also what to think about it if you assume a return.

What is the opportunity for the increased volatility and complexity that will I guess that will mean? Then I guess on the back of that, potential further pressure on freight rates from overcapacity, hence the pressure on the markup.

That would be the first question. Then the second question would be on just wondering on what are the main delta in the guidance range in terms of parameters.

Is it where you see the most uncertainty, is that yields, phasing of cost takeouts, volumes, or other? That would be good to know.

Thank you.

Michael Ebbe

I think I will give it a go. On the Red Sea and how it impacts, I agree that will free up some capacity obviously.

If you get the transit time reduced quite a bit, so that will free up additional capacity of the fleets and the vessels. That will of course, you maybe allude to, put additional pressure on the freight rates, coming back to this discussion we had just some minutes ago with Jens and the value-add versus the freight pass-through part.

Of course the pass-through part that can come under pressure. What also, though, remains to be seen is whether if everybody, of the carriers, start to reroute again, I think that will put some temporary pressure on some of the ports in Europe.

It remains a little bit to be seen how the impact will be the way I see it at least. Then the main drivers for the guidance, it is predominantly the yield factor.

I would though say we talk a lot about yield now and that is of course very clear and of course for obvious reasons. Right now, our roughly 60% of the business is now Air & Sea and 40% is Contract Logistics and Road, which has Contract Logistics and Road, which we've seen quite good pace in Q4.

It's a little bit more stable, you can say, environment. Of course the yield is the biggest swing factor in the guidance that we have.

Kristian Godiksen

Just one follow-up on the Red Sea part just to make sure. What are your assumptions in the guidance?

Is that just as is now or what is the assumption there?

Michael Ebbe

That is as is, that when we prepared the guidance, that is as is. Our base scenario is as is.

Kristian Godiksen

If you were to get some kind of sensitivity if you have a I guess that would be fair okay to assume that you would have a reopening of the Red Sea, then, on the margin, what would that mean? You as I hear you, potentially more value-added services, but on obviously pressure on markup.

What would that do to your expectations for 2026?

Michael Ebbe

I think you need to put it into your spreadsheet, because this will be then the 60% of the business and then it'll be 50% of the GP and then it'll be one-third of the GP. I cannot answer specifically on that one.

Kristian Godiksen

Okay. Thank you.

Jens Lund

Let's put it like this. Of course, if the freight rates come down, it puts a pressure on the freight markup.

Then you'll probably have an assumption for what happens, and then perhaps you can try to model it like this. Yeah.

Kristian Godiksen

I guess some offsetting factor from potential value-added services and all the complexity that would mean from the congestion in European ports and the likes, I guess, as some upside there.

Jens Lund

The customs export declaration, if you do that, it's an export declaration. A local collection is a local collection.

These things, they are not necessarily impacted by the freight markup. That's fairly stable, what you're doing: consolidation of freight, freight documentation, preparation in the gateways, etc., etc.

All these things that we get fees for, they are services, they should be reasonably stable, I would say, or highly stable actually. Yeah.

Michael Ebbe

Lastly of course, it remains on how the carriers, they react. They're the ones setting, you can say, the rates on the sea, so.

Kristian Godiksen

Yeah. Okay.

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Marco Limite from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Marco Limite

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

I've got two. One is on the '26 guidance.

In your guidance, let's say by division, the moving parts by division, you are saying yields stable in sea, up in air, volumes up, road sequentially improving, Contract Logistics continues to grow. That actually all the division are improving.

Now, if I look at your guidance like-for-like, take out FX, take out synergies, basically you are guiding for '26 like-for-like down 1 to 2 billion, but all the divisions are improving. Then also if I, let's say, do the four quarter, 5.6 billion EBIT times four plus extra synergies, I get closer to 26 billion.

What why you're basically guiding for EBIT down year-over-year at group level, but all the divisions are improving and the Q4 exit rate is not that bad, is the first question. The second question is on Q4.

Now, out there, there are some concerns that the quality of your Q4 earnings was not amazing because there was a big beat in CL and Road, miss in Air & Sea, and people are some people are stressed that this is, the quality of these earnings is not sustainable. Can you please explain what is behind the big beat in Contract Logistics and the miss in Air & Sea?

Is this, group cost allocation more into Air & Sea less in CL? How we can be relaxed that profitability in CL and Road is sustainable?

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think Michael, he can at least start with the guidance, and the quality of earnings, perhaps I can just allude to that beforehand. I think the quality of earnings, if you sit and look at it, I think we have explained what happens in the Air & Sea side right now.

I think if we look at the quality of earnings in Road and CL, if you looked at it last year actually, we had a pretty bad quarter on the road side in DSV, the baseline is pretty good. The business is 1.5 times larger, if you adjust that, I think more or less that we are operating at the same profit margin as we've done before, perhaps even a little bit lower.

Right now we're right-sizing two networks and basically combining them, I think there should be some improvement possibilities within the road side when we come to that. If we look at CL, it's not exactly 1.5 times up, but there's not much missing before we're that.

If you look at the DSV side where we had been a little bit under pressure, now we're cutting cost and we're right-sizing the business. We have a margin round 10% on the CL side.

I'm not sure what the people they are talking about. Then I think if we look at the Air & Sea side and the yields, I think the yields and the volumes for that sake, as we have explained, it's under pressure right now.

This is the reason why the results they look as they do. I think we have a plan where we cut cost and then where we're facing the market, and where the Schenker exposures, either the contracts that have been entered into with the customers or the procurement contracts that they've had, they run out and then they become, what can I say, DSV standard procedure and standard contracting.

I think that's in reality what happens in the business. There might be a lot of speculation about it as I can understand, but this is how the business is operating.

Then I think Michael can say a little bit on the guidance.

Michael Ebbe

Two things. I think when you look at Q4 isolated and you benchmark towards last year, remember that last year was very strong in Air & Sea, strong comparatives, whereas CL and Road were softer last year.

Another thing that you need to bear in mind is that with the acquisition of Schenker, the typical DSV seasonality changes a little bit, we should have higher earnings in Q4 than what you traditionally in the legacy DSV have seen. In terms of the guidance, basically, I think it's already has been answered earlier in the call where it was roughly around 1.something miss, you could say, on less EBIT, and I think we have touched upon the reasons of the pressure that we have seen in Air & Sea.

I think that so it's spot on that that is we have embedded, you could say, slightly reduction in EBIT on a, you can say, what you call organic or whatever.

Marco Limite

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Patrick Creuset from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Patrick Creuset

Hi Jens, Michael. Just on road, a couple please.

Just firstly on the cycle, if you could comment a little bit what you're seeing on the volume side and also pricing both from the outside seem a little bit firmer firming up into 2026. Then maybe also what you're seeing going into this year in Road from a cyclical point of view given the low point we're coming from.

Then secondly, looking at your road margin at this early stage of the integration in Q4, seasonally low quarter, you're exceeding 4% margin already, and then, someone else mentioned your US peer now pushing, more to the high single-digit margins. Historically, you've performed comfortably in line if not above with said peer when it comes to productivity and EBIT margin.

More structurally, where can you take this division, at least directionally without taking, sort of previewing the CMD, but what's the opportunity here in terms of step change in margins specifically in Road? Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think if we look at road right now, I think it's we have some exposure in the US, but it's limited. We have some exposure in Asia, the Middle East, a little bit in South Africa as well.

I'll probably say around 90% of the volume is actually here in Europe if we sit and look at it. It is very exposed to the European market.

What we've seen is actually as we talked about actually in the last quarter of '24, we saw a lot of pressure and that sort of went into '25 as well, and I think all the rates, they had adjusted at that time. Right now we don't see that there's a new wave because margins are so slim so that the market has reached the bottom.

Now the volumes, it's perhaps growing 1% or 2% road as we speak, and there's something that tells us that many of these investments that are going to be made in Europe, money being pumped out into the economy, it could lead to a situation where there would be a potential a little bit better situation for road during '26. Right now we've not factored that in, but that would be a little upside that we could get.

That might even drive the rates a little bit up because I think much capacity has gone out of the market because it's really compressed quite a bit. If we then look at road margin, if we sit and look at it, we take two networks, we take, what can I say, one of them basically out and produce it in the other one.

Of course, if you then sit with fixed infrastructure and cost, there's going to be a margin expansion because of that. I'd said before that we need to create, what can I say, a solid return on the invested capital in on the road side, and in order to do so, you have to gravitate towards something that is double-digit.

It might sound a little bit, what can I say, ambitious, but that is what we need to do. I can tell you right now what we're working on is actually a strategic, what can I say, plan where we say we use this civil principles thinking, where we said, "How should the network look?"

and then try to not think about what we have today, but which terminals do we actually need to operate the volume that we have, because you come out of legacy, you come out of two legacy companies, and the infrastructure is probably not sort of matching the requirements that we're having. Here we see that we should be able to take out additional terminals, additional infrastructure, so that we could leverage on what we have, get a higher throughput, and then of course have less invested capital.

That's why we're all here, to reduce, what can I say, the capital that we deploy and maximize the throughput of it so that we get the return that everybody wants. That's probably the what you're going to hear a little bit more on the Capital Markets Day, but I gave you a little teaser on it.

Michael Ebbe

Maybe it's a little bit audacious, but I remember at the last Capital Markets Day where how you referred to the road business if you set it up correctly, but let's see what you will say next time we have the Capital Markets Day.

Jens Lund

Yeah. You know

Patrick Creuset

Thank you. Clear.

Operator

The last question for today's call comes from Cedar Ekblom from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Cedar Ekblom

Thanks very much. Hi, gentlemen.

Follow-up question on AI. I know you don't want to talk too much about it and save it for the Capital Markets Day, but your share is moving quite strongly as the call is going on, and I expect that that's got something to do with you sort of mentioning that there is potentially billions of savings to come from AI.

My question relates to how we think about the retention of those benefits, because freight is an industry where historically at least, when you've lowered your cost to serve, you've had at least some of that then passed on to the customer. Maybe it's a bit more of a medium-term question, but I'd like to understand how you think about sort of differentiating the DSV strategy as it relates to AI, productivity, automation, etc., relative to what I'm sure others in the industry will also be looking to achieve.

Thank you.

Jens Lund

I think I actually answered that question a little bit, because you can introduce AI in many different ways. I think the way we want to do it is we want to transform the business.

It means that we organize ourselves in a different way on enterprise level. Let's continue on the customs example.

Beforehand, customs could be handled either on a desk, by a person, sometimes in a department, sometimes on a branch level, sometimes on a country level. Today we move these people that do that into a hardline organization that basically uses technology that is very advanced, and then the people that sit at the forwarder, they get an SLA, they get a service from somebody else instead of producing the thing themselves.

It's very hard to drive those changes in 90 countries and get a create a global organization for that. Here we use the change capacity and the governance model that we have to create that.

I think many people are reluctant to make those kind of changes, but this is the only way you can capitalize on the technology. Then it's how much change capacity do you have.

We have to get there first, and the people that don't make that, they will have, it's not AI that is the problem. It is your colleague that embraces AI in a better way that is the problem.

We believe this is the better way, we want to be the problem for everybody.

Cedar Ekblom

Thank you so much.

Jens Lund

Okay. Now I got a little cough, but I actually wanted to finish off by thanking for your interest.

I would also like to thank all the DSV employees for their hard work, all their efforts. It's been a remarkable quarter and a remarkable year, and I can't thank you enough.

Also our customers for their trust. We look forward to catching up again and speaking to you after Q1.

Have a good day.