Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the FIS Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.
To ask a question at that time, you will need to press *11 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. George Mihalos.
Sir, please begin.
George Mihalos
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the FIS third quarter 2026 earnings conference call.
This call is being webcasted. Today's news release, corresponding presentation, and webcast are all available on our website at fisglobal.com.
On the call with me this morning is our CEO and President, Stephanie Ferris, and our CFO, James Kehoe. Stephanie will begin the call with a strategic and operational update, followed by James, who will review our financial results.
Turning to slide three. Today's remarks will contain forward-looking statements.
These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the press release and other filings with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.
Please refer to the safe harbor language. Also, throughout this call, we will be presenting non-GAAP information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings, and adjusted net earnings per share.
These are important financial performance measures for the company, but are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP information to the GAAP financial information is presented in our earnings release.
Now, I'll turn the call over to Stephanie.
Stephanie Ferris
Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. FIS delivered a solid third quarter.
We grew revenue, expanded margins, and generated strong free cash flow. Demand for our solutions remains strong, and we continue to simplify our portfolio, closing on the divestiture of a non-core prepaid asset.
Our clients are asking more of us than ever. They want strong cyber protection and the right controls around AI.
That is why trust and resiliency are at the center of everything we do. With approximately 12% of the world's economy flowing through our systems, keeping our clients safe is our most important responsibility.
We are investing on their behalf, which I will address this morning. I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world as they continue to support our clients and each other in this demanding environment.
With elevated security needs and changing client behavior, our initiatives to continue delivering for our clients are also resulting in a revised guidance outlook for the year. In a dynamic industry environment, we are deliberately taking a more prudent approach.
Now, let me turn to our outlook, which we are updating today. I want to be very clear about why.
Three things are driving this. First, we are prioritizing recurring revenue as market demand is accelerating shifts from traditional licenses to our new subscription and SaaS products.
Second, over the course of the third quarter, we started to see some client-directed conversion delays, primarily in our larger client base, and some impacts from the timing around large bank consolidation. Our outlook builds in updated timelines to account for these.
Third, we are building flexibility to invest in technology and security to enable both client implementations and the prioritization of cyber activities. These factors will weigh on our results in the fourth quarter and 2027, and we expect them to largely fade in 2028.
This morning, I will walk through our third quarter results, our strategy and priorities, and the commercial momentum we are building. James will then cover our financial results, our updated 2026 outlook, and our preliminary framework for 2027.
Turning to slide five for third quarter highlights. Pro forma revenue grew 3.7%, with recurring revenue growth of 2.5%.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 42.9%, with expansion of 94 basis points driven by favorable revenue mix and savings from our cost programs. Adjusted EPS was $1.61, up 6.6%.
Free cash flow remains a real strength. Year-to-date free cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57%.
Recurring ACV sales are up on a year-to-date basis. In Capital Markets, where we told you last quarter that sales were behind plan, recurring sales improved 26% from the second quarter due to commercial excellence and focus on recurring sales initiatives.
Last quarter, we said we would address it, and we are. We simplified our portfolio, closing on the divestiture of a non-core prepaid asset within the Banking Solutions segment.
Together, these results reflect our profitability, strong cash generation, and healthy demand. Turning to slide six.
We are continuing to invest in our strategy, adding the Total Issuing solutions business to our portfolio, resulting in a more scaled and cash-generative business. Today, we support more than 90 million core banking accounts and more than 1 billion cardholder accounts on file.
We have processed more than 52 billion card transactions year-to-date. Our clients continue to grow, and we grow alongside them.
On an organic basis, all our key metrics are growing at mid-single digits. Delivering at scale and growing with our clients is translating into stronger free cash flow, which has grown from $1.2 billion year-to-date 2025 to $1.9 billion year-to-date 2026.
Turning to slide seven. Operational excellence, specifically commercial excellence and improving the client experience, is a commitment we have discussed since Investor Day.
We are seeing real progress. By way of example, in commercial excellence within our Banking segment, we are seeing a pronounced shift towards higher-margin products.
Regarding the client experience, earlier this year, we made a significant investment in account management, increasing our coverage teams by 15% and deepening our coverage with specialized client success managers, account directors, and technical account managers. Our investments in resiliency are also paying off, reducing service incidents by 40% year-to-date and cutting client notification times by nearly 90%.
Finally, our investments in AI-native product have yielded 10 new products, including our new anti-money laundering agent. Our clients are seeing a better experience, and it is showing up in higher renewal rates with less pricing compression.
Our recurring ACV renewal rate is in the high 90s, up over 100 basis points from last year. Pricing compression on renewal has also improved.
As discussed in previous quarters, we are also building durability and efficiency into the business. 72% of Total Issuing solutions revenue is under contract through 2029 and beyond, and we continue to be focused on efficiencies across our business.
Stronger, longer client relationships are the foundation of the recurring revenue we are prioritizing. Turning to slide eight, I outline our near-term priorities, beginning with trust.
Trust comes first. Our clients' running meaningful share of the world's financial system on FIS technology, their safety and the safety of their customers is paramount.
The threat environment is changing quickly, and AI is accelerating how fast vulnerabilities can be found by defenders and attackers alike. We have been investing materially in infrastructure, resiliency, and cyber since 2024.
FIS is one of only a few financial technology companies participating in Anthropic's Project Glasswing. That work has shown us first-hand how quickly the threat landscape for our industry is changing.
We will continue to step up our investment. We are fighting AI risk with AI, using advanced technology to find and remediate software vulnerabilities at speed and scale.
Our technology, product, and client teams are at the center of this work. We've been communicating our approach at every level with our clients and with regulators, and they've welcomed the focus and rigor we are bringing.
We are convinced this is the right thing to do for our clients and for the financial services industry. Next is sales, and demand for our solutions remains strong.
Our modernized products are driving demand because clients can use them in the cloud without the customization and long deployments that on-premise licenses require. Our channel-driven value proposition and go-to-market motion are winning new logos.
We are expanding our reach through strategic partnerships with resellers, system integrators, advisory firms, and marketplaces. In 2026, we signed strategic distribution partnerships that unlock new channels for our best-in-class products.
Those agreements generated significant license revenue this year that we do not expect to repeat in 2027. However, we expect these partnerships to expand our new sales as we activate distribution with our partners.
We're also advancing innovation, and agentic banking is gaining momentum. Earlier this month, our AML Investigation Agent became commercially available to US financial institutions, deployed first at one of our design partners.
This is the first of many additional agents in our pipeline. Finally, our evaluation of strategic alternatives is ongoing, and you can expect to get a more substantial update from us in early 2027.
Turning to slide nine. Demand is strong across every client segment we serve, and in each one, a flagship product leads the way.
In community banking and credit unions, we've sold 550,000 new accounts year-to-date. Our full-suite, regulatory-grade core banking platform is also helping launch de novo banks.
In regional banking, we're scaling with acquirers. As banks consolidate, they're choosing our core ecosystem.
We've sold over 875,000 new accounts year-to-date, winning through bank M&A and our best-in-class suite of products in commercial banking. With large financial institutions, we are driving cross-sales through value-added services, including loyalty and payments.
Cross-sell expansion is up 76% year-over-year. With fintechs, our money movement capabilities are powering innovation, with new client wins up 23% year-over-year.
Across all four channels, the pattern is the same. A leading product opens the door, and the breadth of our portfolio deepens the relationship over time.
Each of those relationships adds to our recurring revenue base. We're also extending our reach beyond our direct sales force.
Through strategic partners, we are reaching new clients. This channel is already contributing 5% to 10% of our new sales, and we expect that share to grow over the medium term.
In closing, let me reframe our outlook. As I discussed at the beginning of the call, we are deliberately taking a more prudent outlook based on factors that emerged during the third quarter.
We are making deliberate choices to build a more recurring, more resilient FIS. Our clients are asking for new products, innovation, and for the highest standards of security and resiliency.
We will meet both. We are planning for a wider range of margin outcomes in 2027 to support continued investment.
These factors, together with the lack of demand for licenses, the activation of our strategic distribution partnerships, and higher-than-normal termination fees as a result of larger-scale bank consolidation, will reduce non-recurring revenue and pressure margins in the fourth quarter and into 2027. However, it should create more durable, recurring revenue in 2027 and beyond.
I want to be clear about how we see this. Our outlook is deliberately prudent as we navigate a rapidly changing market.
It is not indicative of the long-term revenue and earnings power of this business. As these headwinds largely fade in 2028, we expect a return to more normalized growth.
Before I pass it to James, I want to take a moment to recognize him for his financial leadership and many contributions to FIS. James has been a very strong partner to me and the FIS leadership team over the past three years.
His financial acumen and leadership have been instrumental in strengthening our financial foundation and advancing several important strategic initiatives that have positioned FIS well for our next chapter of growth. I am grateful for his partnership and thankful for his continued support and commitment to ensuring a seamless transition in the coming weeks and months.
I also want to recognize Alex Brooks, our Chief Accounting Officer, who will serve as Interim Chief Financial Officer beginning tomorrow, November 5th. Alex is a seasoned finance leader and former public company CFO who knows our business, our controls, and our finance team well.
The board and I have initiated a comprehensive search for a permanent CFO that will consider both internal and external candidates. I will work closely with Alex over the coming weeks with James's support to ensure a seamless transition.
With that, I will turn it over to James.
James Kehoe
Thanks, Stephanie, and good morning, everyone. It has been a privilege to serve as CFO of FIS during what has been a transformative period for the company.
After three years, it's the right time to look at other opportunities outside of FIS. I am very proud of the talented finance team, which has, and will continue, to deliver stellar cash flow results.
I would like to thank Alex for stepping into the interim role. She is a superb leader and an experienced financial executive.
I will work closely with Alex to ensure a seamless transition. I will continue to be a shareholder in FIS as I believe in the long-term potential of the company.
Turning now to the formal presentation. Third quarter results were broadly in line with our expectations, with a strong performance on cash flow.
Revenue grew 3.7% on a pro forma basis, with Banking and Capital Markets coming in at the higher end of our outlook, including a positive contribution from new strategic distribution partnerships. Pro forma EBITDA grew 5.2%, with margins up 94 basis points, in line with our outlook of 80 to 100 basis points.
The margin expansion was led by favorable revenue mix and cost savings, with margins up across both segments. Adjusted EPS increased 6.6%.
Cash flow had another strong quarter, up 8% year-over-year despite lapping a very tough comp. You will recall that free cash flow doubled in the third quarter of last year.
Year-to-date, we have now generated $1.9 billion of cash flow, achieving 85% of our full-year target. Our leverage ratio held steady at 3.5 times, with our total debt declining to $20.8 billion.
We returned $248 million to shareholders, primarily through dividends. Turning now to our segment results, starting on slide 13.
Banking Solutions pro forma revenue growth was 3.9%. Recurring revenue slowed to 2.4%, reflecting lower M&A compared to the first half of the year, client-led conversion delays, and the impact of select bank consolidation.
Non-recurring revenue grew 22.8%, with a strong contribution from strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses. Adjusted EBITDA advanced 8.8%, with margins expanding more than 200 basis points on a pro forma basis, reflecting continued cost savings and favorable revenue mix.
Turning now to Capital Markets on slide 14. Revenue increased 3%, which was at the high end of our outlook.
Recurring revenue also grew 3%, lapping a very strong 9% in the prior year. Non-recurring revenue grew 24.6%, with growth in strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses.
Professional Services declined 20%, reflecting the impact of weaker first half sales and a slower-than-expected pace of client implementations. We expect this pressure on Professional Services to continue into the fourth quarter.
Lastly, margins expanded 180 basis points, reflecting favorable revenue mix from partnership deals and cost savings. Turning now to slide 15 to review our year-to-date results.
Revenue increased 5.1%, with Banking at 5.8% and Capital Markets at 3.1%. EBITDA margins expanded 96 basis points, reflecting favorable mix and cost savings.
Free cash flow is up 57% year-on-year to $1.9 billion and bringing the latest 12 months to $2.3 billion. We are confident we will achieve our full-year cash flow goals.
Now, let's turn to slide 16 for a discussion on our updated full-year outlook. As Stephanie noted in her remarks, we have begun to see some client-driven implementation delays across our larger enterprise customers.
Given these changes, we are taking a more prudent approach to our outlook. Firstly, we are incorporating revised implementation timelines and accounting for some impact from select bank consolidation.
Secondly, we are taking a more measured view on non-recurring revenue, given softer market receptivity to our licensed products. With that said, let me walk you through our updated projections.
We now expect banking revenue growth of 3.5% to 4%, as compared to 5% to 5.5% previously. This reduction is driven by a 65 basis point impact from client-led implementation delays and the impact of a large bank consolidation, and an 85 basis point reduction from lower assumptions regarding non-recurring revenue in light of shifts in client demand.
Turning to Capital Markets. We are now forecasting revenue growth of 2% to 2.5%, as compared to 3% to 3.5% previously.
This change primarily reflects lower license activity as we shift to meet market demand for cloud-based modern products sold under recurring contracts. Lastly, we have reduced our revenue outlook to account for the divestiture of a non-core prepaid business.
Turning now to margins. The revenue reduction we are now forecasting for the fourth quarter will weigh on EBITDA and margins.
We are reducing our assumptions for non-recurring revenue by over $100 million, impacting margins by approximately 50 basis points. We now anticipate full-year margin expansion of 20 to 30 basis points.
Adjusted EPS growth is reduced to 1.2% to 2.4%. Cash flow remains on track.
We are reaffirming our free cash flow outlook of approximately $2.2 billion. Strong performance from our working capital programs and a decline in non-GAAP cash expenses will offset lower earnings.
Turning now to 2027 on slide 17. Similar to the prudent approach underpinning our updated 2026 guidance, I'd like to share some preliminary perspectives on how we're thinking about 2027 and why we believe we will return to a more normalized level of growth in 2028.
Organic growth is driven by transactions and account growth, net new sales, and pricing, and is expected to contribute approximately 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points of growth, broadly consistent with historical performance. Non-recurring revenue will be negatively impacted by the absence of $140 million of strategic distribution partnerships and a reduction in termination fees from elevated levels in both 2025 and 2026.
Overall, this will reduce growth by 250 to 300 basis points, bringing the adjusted growth rate range to down 50 basis points to up 100 basis points. Importantly, we believe these non-recurring headwinds are temporary in nature and are expected to dissipate as we enter 2028.
With that, let me walk you through our expectations by segment, starting with Banking. We anticipate revenue growth of flat to 1.5%, with recurring revenue growth of approximately 3%, largely offset by a sharp decline in non-recurring revenue driven by the lapping of strategic partnership deals, a return to a normalized level of termination fees, and deprioritizing certain low-margin equipment businesses.
For Capital Markets, we are anticipating a range of down 1.5% to up 0.5%, with recurring growth in the mid-single digits. As with Banking, we expect non-recurring to be a drag on revenue growth as we lap large strategic partnership deals and pivot from license to recurring.
Turning now to slide 18 for some additional commentary. Our 2027 margins will be impacted by the reduction in non-recurring revenue and investment in cyber and security.
The reduction in non-recurring revenue will weigh on margins with an anticipated impact of 75 to 145 basis points. As such, we expect margins to be flat to down 100 basis points.
Absent these non-recurring impacts, core margins are expected to expand by roughly 45 to 75 basis points. We are also providing assumptions across several below-the-line items, including interest and tax.
As a result, we expect adjusted EPS to decline in the high single to low double-digit range. Turning to cash flow.
We are confident free cash flow growth will continue to outpace earnings in 2027, fueled by continued working capital programs and a further decline in non-GAAP cash expenses. Finally, I want to emphasize three points before moving on.
First, this is a preliminary view of 2027, incorporating a number of prudent assumptions. Second, we believe the current outlook is not indicative of the long-term revenue and earnings power of this business.
We anticipate a return to more normalized growth in 2028. Third, free cash flow will continue to outpace net earnings.
Turning now to slide 19 for a recap. While our third quarter results were in line with expectations, Banking recurring growth was weaker than anticipated.
We have reduced our 2026 outlook to reflect client-led delays, the impact of select bank M&A, and updated non-recurring assumptions. We have provided a preliminary view for 2027, reflecting steady recurring growth and progress on core margins.
However, these will be offset by a significant reduction in non-recurring revenue as we lap strategic partnership deals and elevated termination fees. While this will temper near-term financial results, we are confident in the long-term durability of the business.
Free cash flow remains robust, and we are confident cash flow will continue to grow ahead of earnings. With that, operator, could you please open the line for questions?
Operator
Yes, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press *11 on your telephone keypad.
If your question has been answered and you wish to remove yourself from the queue, you may press *11 again. Again, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press *11 on your telephone keypad.
Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question or comment comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal from Cantor Fitzgerald.
Your line is open.
Ramsey El-Assal
Hi, thank you for taking my question this morning. Stephanie, in the context of the forward view that you provided, I appreciate all the color on the non-recurring headwinds you're facing, license fees, conversion delays, deals lapping, etc.
Are you seeing any other external factors pressuring numbers, competition, need for higher levels of business investment, or termination fee cadence changing over time as the industry consolidates? I'm just curious if you're seeing anything that's sort of with the market sort of or the demand environment evolving around you, and any commentary on how you can address those changing conditions would be helpful.
Stephanie Ferris
Thanks for the question, Ramsey. What I would say is competition remains strong and stable.
As I said in my prepared remarks, demand coming from our clients is high. It's high in terms of both products and solutions to help grow their business.
It's also high in terms of making sure that they and we can prioritize cyber and resiliency activities. I don't see significant changes in competition.
I think the competition remains steady and stable. I gave you some clear of the metrics in terms of wins.
We still feel really good about where we're positioned and how our solutions are really being seen in the marketplace and winning. I think in terms of term fees, and we talked about this, we have seen, as you guys know, a higher level of what I would call large-scale bank M&A.
Think about Huntington Cadence, Fifth Third, Comerica. We talk about we generally end up on the positive side of that, but that is larger than normal in '25 and '26.
I don't have anything expectations in '27 at that size and scale, but TBD. I think that in terms of we do win on those over the period, but we will take some timing compression and conversion as those through those work through our P&L.
In terms of license in the market, I think this has been a consistent trend across the industry where clients do not want to buy on-prem license activity. As we primarily have historically sold that in the Capital Markets and in the international part of the banking business.
With the onset of AI, really just the consumption of our subscription and SaaS products because out of those, they can also subscribe to our data products, which is what they need to actually drive their AI products forward. Generally, I would say it's all stable.
We did talk about some client-directed changes. We see that in the larger part of the customer base versus the smaller part of the customer space, and we feel really good about those aren't canceled, those are just moving timelines out.
Ramsey El-Assal
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang from J.P.
Morgan. Your line is now open.
Tien-Tsin Huang
Hey, great. Thanks.
Just wanted to clarify if you don't mind. Just on the client delays, is it related to a shift in client focus towards cyber and some of the ramps are just getting reprioritized?
Just want to make sure I understand if those were related or if I heard it wrong. Then just on the softer demand for license, Stephanie, you just talked about it with the change of how clients want to consume content.
How long would it take to convert these potential license deals here to the consumption model? Do you have a time frame?
Because we've seen this kind of movie before with right shift to subscription. Do you have a time frame in mind?
Thanks.
Stephanie Ferris
Yeah. Thanks, Tien-Tsin.
On the client-directed delays, they are in the larger part of our customer base. I can't say specifically they're related to cyber because it's obviously based on what's happening at each individual client.
We do see in the larger bank customer space there is certainly a reprioritization of activities inside the banks to make sure that they and we can get through and make sure everything's as secure as possible. The good news on all of these projects is they've been replanned.
There really haven't been any terminated. I would say there's a mix.
Given that they're in the larger part of the market from a demand standpoint versus the small, could be more cyber-related. I know some other tech firms have talked about that as well.
In terms of the license, I think to be fair on this, it's a good thing over time. As we've been moving our business to a higher level of recurring.
The products in market are taking shape in terms of the demand. It will be a slow to modest change, as it has been.
We wouldn't expect to see licenses continue to go up as demand shifts to subscription revenue. I think as we're talking about it, we're simply saying we wouldn't expect license to continue to increase over time.
It would stay flat to moderate. There's no initial switch where we're going to throw the whole thing, and that's not how the business would work.
It's more of a modest change. We're just not expecting increasing license revenue as those products get reprioritized with our subscription-based products.
Tien-Tsin Huang
Got it. No, that answers it well.
Thank you. All the best to you, James.
Mhm.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research.
Mr. Peller, your line is now open.
Darrin Peller
All right. Thanks, guys.
James, all the best to you as well. Stephanie, can we just touch on how much of the '27 guidance is really a function of you deciding to formally not include or rely on non-recurring revenue in your outlook anymore rather than just really focus on what you know in terms of recurring?
Then on that note, what exactly would you say is changing in terms of on a segment-by-segment, if you look at the two segments basis in terms of the recurring revenue forecast? Said another way, what's changed in terms of demand that you believe might be slightly different in either of the two segments if you could walk through what you're seeing that you incorporated in that '27 outlook more fundamentally besides just the non-recurring side?
Stephanie Ferris
Sure. Maybe I'll take it, and James can add on.
First, in terms of conversion timing, the client-led delays we talked about are about timing, they're not about demand. Our framework does assume some of them delay into next year as the clients have pushed out their implementation dates, and some of that's related to, obviously, their own projects going on.
If they're completed sooner, we would expect the recurring revenue to accelerate faster than we've assumed, but it is about conversion timing. Also, we think that the non-recurring headwind is temporary as we lap the activation of our strategic distribution partnership channel and from the term fees normalizing.
We expect that to largely dissipate in 2027 and 2020 2028. That's why we talked about a baseline organic growth being consistent with what we're seeing in '26.
I think we're seeing, we've really attempted to set a baseline that we believe is more prudent given as we come into this quarter. I think we feel pretty good about the trends, and we were trying to be as transparent as possible with what's going on.
Maybe James can add a few comments.
James Kehoe
I think it's useful just to step back. It was slide 17 of the drivers in 2027.
What we said was the organic growth is a range of 2.5% to 3.5%, and that's pretty consistent with what was done in the past. The massive swing factor is this 250 to 300 basis points on non-recurring.
You multiply it by, simplistically, take 3% of $13.5 billion, that's a $400 million change, it's pretty substantial. I'll give you the four drivers because transparency is important here.
One is we're lapping the strategic initiative deals, these are partnerships that will drive recurring revenue longer term. That's $140 million, rough numbers, 1-4-0.
The second big piece is, Stephanie already referred to it, is the level of trade consolidation in both 2025 and in 2026 is at levels that we've never seen in the past. We're reverting to the mean of the level of trade consolidation, assuming no large trade consolidations.
That has an impact, rough numbers, $100 million year-on-year. We're reducing versus the base year to reflect a much lower level of trade consolidation.
The third one, then, is within the banking business, we have had a lot of non-recurring revenue on equipment-type businesses, which are very, very low margin. We've taken the opportunity to exit this low-margin business, and that's in the region of $75 million to $100 million.
This is stuff that on its best day you're making 5% to 10% margin on. Of little consequence to any future strategy.
The final piece, and it's about 50-ish kind of million is in Capital Markets, that is call it the rough quantification of a progressive reduction in licenses over a longer period. As Stephanie said, this will be managed over a 5 to 7-year time horizon.
There will not be any large episodic change in the direction of Capital Markets' license activity. That $50 million type number, it's 50 to 75, that will drive faster recurring revenue on an ongoing basis.
Even as we exit 2027, there will be faster revenue growth. I wanted to give you the full detail on this 400 because it truly is, it's 300 of purely non-recurring.
We will emphasize this is a prudent set of estimates, which basically says you're reverting back to turn fees in '23, '24 levels and you will not repeat any SI deals, and then you are moving Capital Markets away from license to recurring on a measured basis. I'll stop there.
Darrin Peller
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Dan Dolev from Mizuho.
Mr. Dolev, your line is now open.
Dan Dolev
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Stephanie.
There's some speculation that one of your peers could be going private, according to the press. Given evaluation, the stock reaction today, how are you thinking about the benefits of being public versus private?
Thank you.
Stephanie Ferris
Thanks, Dan. Look, I think you know that we are really focused here in terms of doing the right thing for our customers, doing the right thing for our investors.
We will always be looking at what the right level there is, and what the right structure is. We're obviously always open.
I think, though, what we have proven here today or what we're trying to emphasize here today is being very transparent on the evolution of this business and taking all the right decisions and making the right decisions to support safety and security and, ultimately, our clients' outcomes that they need. We will always be focused on investor returns and focused on clients, and we're interested to see how the industry evolves.
Dan Dolev
Thank you, Stephanie.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Matthew O'Neill from Bank of America.
Mr. O'Neill, your line is now open.
Matthew O'Neill
Hi. Thank you, Stephanie and team, for taking the question.
I was just curious if you could update the leverage discussion sort of post the asset swap. I think at last reading, it was 2.8 turns within 18 months of close, which put it somewhere around mid-'27 towards '28.
As we think about a flat free cash flow outlook for '27, I think that's somewhere around $1.3 billion or so after dividend. That would put 2.8 potentially later.
I was just wondering if you could give more of a formal update on that part of the outlook and the sort of balance of that paydown and resumption of future share repurchase timing. Thank you.
James Kehoe
I'll take this one. You've seen the current year cash flow performance, and I want to reiterate, the current guide is $2.2 billion, which is at the midpoint, which is 100 million above what we guided at the beginning of the year.
I would say despite the pressures on EBITDA in the current year, we're significantly outperforming on free cash. Then secondly, it's up 40% year-on-year, driven by the contribution from thesis, but strong working capital initiatives.
As you look forward on cash, the good news is we have a pipeline of working capital initiatives that in 2027, '28, and '29 far exceed what we've delivered in 2025 and 2026. To put it in perspective, the working capital initiatives in both of those years were in excess of $250 million.
That's in '25 and '26. We expect the next two years to be of a higher level.
We're moving into phase two of this. I think number one is I want to anchor you on the free cash flow.
It will continue to strongly outpace net earnings, full stop. Two because there's two levers and we increasingly have better visibility on them, which is one is working capital, which I just discussed.
The other is the reduction in one-time non-GAAP expenses, where in the current year we actually took them down aggressively versus the original guide. I think it was about 70 million, roughly a 10% reduction.
There will be a further sizable reduction each year over the next two years. Once you've cycled through thesis, they should trend to a very low level.
To get back to your direct question, that being said, we don't have an issue on free cash flow. The pressure is on EBITDA because it's the most important metric on calculating the debt-to-EBITDA ratio.
We have an impact on the timing of getting to this 2.8. The reason I cannot commit to a number is, one, I'm leaving.
Number two is the forecast is based on a series of prudent assumptions. I really want to emphasize, they're prudent assumptions across non-recurring, somewhat prudent on the recurring.
We have to see how these, call it, pan out once we get into budgeting cycle. The other one is, the positive impacts from the strategic review process, depending on the outcomes, will go a long way to offsetting pressure on EBITDA.
I'm not confirming the prior guide, but I'm saying it's maybe not as bad as the math would lead you to believe. That's the way.
Summarizing, EBITDA will put pressure on achieving the 2.8. It will push out when you can get back to share repurchases.
There's a large potential offset from the strategic review process, and I would say a large potential offset on free cash flow is coming in stronger every quarter. The programs we set are generally overdelivering in every quarter, quarter by quarter, day by day.
I think there's opportunities to offset some of the EBITDA pressure.
Matthew O'Neill
Thanks. I really appreciate that detail.
Maybe as a quick follow-up since you mentioned the strategic review, is that still limited to select Capital Markets products, or is the purview of the strategic review possibly expanded or maybe it was always larger? Maybe the probabilities of something larger is changed.
Maybe it's a sort of an in-between question following up on Dan's previous one about sort of public versus private dynamics broadly.
Stephanie Ferris
Great question. Look, the strategic review remains ongoing.
You can see this quarter we actually sold a business out of the Banking portfolio. While we are focused in Capital Markets, we're always focused across the entire portfolio, and are evaluating what makes sense to keep within the enterprise with a focus on deepening relationships with our FIs and expanding cross-sell.
To the extent that doesn't make any sense, we're actively looking across, not just Capital Markets, but obviously Banking. As you can see, from the sale of the non-core prepaid business.
will continue as James mentioned, the strategic review continues, it is across the entire company, and we'll look to give a more fullsome update when we come back to you when we give the year-end review and we'll have a better view of that.
Matthew O'Neill
Appreciate it. I'll jump back in.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo.
Your line is now open, sir.
Jason Kupferberg
Good morning, guys. Thanks for all the detail regarding next year.
I wanted to come back to the banking segment for a second and the client-led implementation delays. Can you give us a sense of how many clients we're talking about here and what types of circumstances drove the delays?
Then, as we think about the recurring growth outlook for banking next year, the 3% number, I know that's a little bit lower than what you've been seeing year-to-date in 2026. Does that 3% recurring growth for next year assume that these delayed implementations help recurring growth next year?
If so, what are the potential offsets?
Stephanie Ferris
Yeah. Jason, thanks for the question.
It's generally less than 10 clients. As I said, they've been generally larger, and the implementations range where some have already restarted their implementation in the fourth quarter, some have replanned into the end of first quarter, and some are into Q3 next year.
We do expect all of the benefits of those to come back into 2027. However, on the timing that the clients are telling us we're going to go live on.
Don't expect to get the full year. We do still feel good about all of those delays coming back into 2027, albeit we'll have some timing impact.
Jason Kupferberg
Okay. Then, just a quick follow-up.
The new investments in tech and security, cyber, etc., how do those phase in? Can you size those for us?
I don't know if this is all OpEx or a little bit of CapEx too, but the numbers and timing would be great. Thank you.
Stephanie Ferris
Yeah. I'll talk a little bit about it.
Maybe James can give some views of how to think about it in terms of margin. We have been investing significantly, since 2024 in terms of resiliency, which cyber and resiliency really go together, and you've seen that in our investment profile, primarily in capital, as we refresh the hardware and the software and make sure that we are best-in-class in terms of cyber defense.
We will continue to do that. We've had a pretty high level of investment here going on.
I think the way to think about it is, it will continue, as it is today. However, it's offsetting some of the benefits of our cost programs falling through to margin.
Maybe I'll ask James to talk a little bit about how to think about it at a high-level OpEx/CapEx, but it isn't necessarily an incremental step-up year-over-year, but ongoing, and may need to offset some of the benefits of the cost programs.
James Kehoe
I think it's, if you're looking at the margin projection we gave for next year is 0 to 100 basis points, you're looking at licenses between low and high end, 75 to 145 bps. A rough estimate on cyber and security is 20 to 30 20 to 30 basis points.
That's a rough estimate. We are investing to ensure the highest grade of security and resiliency.
The other part where you're going to see some impact is it's going to feed through in higher depreciation. We have already, all of this year, spent considerably more on capital expenditure.
We're talking large amounts of money. If you look into next year, the incremental year-on-year on CapEx is in the region of $50 million.
It's not a massive number, but you're coming off a very high base year. This year already we ramped up capital expenditure on purchased assets on major refreshes and then on cyber as we exit the year.
Bear in mind the incremental CapEx next year, that's included in the cash flow projection for '27.
Jason Kupferberg
Thank you, guys. Mhm.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Will Nance from Goldman Sachs.
Mr. Nance, your line is now open.
Will Nance
Hi, thank you for taking the question. [Cough] I want to go back to I think Darrin's question on the recurring assumptions into next year.
Looking at the 3% growth on the banking side, understanding that's relatively consistent with where we shook out this quarter. I guess, my question is, how do we assess the degree of conservatism in the organic growth outlook?
It sounds like some of the delays that are leading to lower growth right now will have some timing impacts on next year. When we think about kind of the baseline of organic growth next year, how much of the lower level of organic growth next year relative to kind of what you've targeted historically in the business comes from those timing impacts versus maybe a degree of prudence around the expectations into next year or an expectation that we continue to see timing pushouts in 2027?
Stephanie Ferris
I think we're going to have to come back to you as we do detailed planning. At this point, we're giving you expectations based on what we know now.
We hope that the numbers would be bigger, but or grow faster, but at this point, I don't think we have that level of detail to share. We'll have to come back to you, in the year-end call and give you a much better view of that.
Will Nance
Okay. All right.
Let me try a more near-term one here. Just on the banking performance in the quarter, the payments revenue growth took a step down sequentially of a very strong quarter last quarter.
Now, I think kind of operating below the mid-single digits you guys have talked about historically. What drove that?
Are the implementation delays hitting that line in particular? Just how do you kind of think about the durability of payments growth?
Stephanie Ferris
Yeah. We still feel really good about payments growth, generally.
We did see some first-half to second-half changes. A little bit of client-led delays.
As you think about going from first half to second half, there's client-led delay impacts there as well as, again, a bit of the M&A consolidation, impacting there. We continue to feel really good about the payments business and its growth trajectory.
No changes there, but higher levels, in the first half versus the second half, because of those trends. I don't know, James, if there's anything else.
James Kehoe
I think the payments is particularly impacted because the M&A contribution that we had in the first half was mostly coming from Everlink, and we're lapping that in the second half. That will naturally pull down the payments relative to the Banking segment.
Then, we have two businesses, EBT and prepaid businesses that are highly dependent on, call it, government-funded programs. We have seen a fairly material reduction in the number of not the volume of transactions per person, but on the number of participants in programs like SNAP.
That has caused both a variance versus expectation and a pretty material slowdown if you take first half, second half. You're talking north of 100 basis points.
We think that will continue because it kind of links into 2027. It'll continue into the first half in 2027 as will trade consolidation.
Exiting 2027, it'll be more positive. Generally the payments volumes, just if you take issuer volumes on debit and credit, they're performing consistently in Q3 compared to Q2 and first half.
Will Nance
Got it. That's helpful details on payments.
Thanks for taking the question.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Rayna Kumar from Oppenheimer & Co.
Ms. Kumar, your line is now open.
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Rayna Kumar
Good morning. Thanks for all the insights.
How much of the delayed recurring revenue is contractually secured, and when will it convert? Then I'll just ask my follow-up upfront.
How should we think about the growth algorithm of FIS beyond 2027? Thank you.
Stephanie Ferris
Almost all of the delayed client conversions are contractually required. Almost all of them have already been planned in terms of the dates as they come in to next year.
I think we feel good about that. On the growth algorithm of FIS, I think that the way to think about it is 80% of our revenue is recurring in nature.
While we've had some temporary softness tied to client-led implementation delays, this still provides a steady foundation for future growth with expanding margins. The market continues to be receptive to our products that are really driving recurring revenue, which is resulting in a little bit of a timing difference between license and recurring.
I would say we employ a one-to-many business model where our clients leverage us for a fixed-cost platform, meaning we see incremental margins on all new sales. Lastly, we generate significant free cash flow that we'll continue to use to de-lever and, ultimately, return to shareholders.
As a reminder, our year-to-date cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57%, and we reaffirmed that full-year outlook despite the lower EBITDA. We do expect free cash flow to continue to outpace earnings.
I would say stepping back, that's kind of how I think about the thesis of FIS. I think it remains consistent with historicals and remains as we look into the future.
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Rayna Kumar
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for one more question.
Our final question will come from the line of Bryan Bergin from TD Cowen. Mr.
Bergin, your line is now open.
Bryan Bergin
Hi. Good morning.
Thank you. Can you comment on TSYS as far as cost and revenue synergy realization there?
Is there any change for you on the targets as far as the strategy change impacting anything in TSYS? Are you assuming any of the cross-sell benefit embedded in that preliminary '27 banking outlook?
Then, my follow-up question would be on free cash flow. Holding that flat next year despite the earnings hit, can you just quantify the contribution from lower non-GAAP costs versus working capital optimization?
Is there anything non-sustainable, i.e., timing-related to benefit you there next year? Thank you.
Stephanie Ferris
We're not changing anything related to our expectations around synergies. I'll let James answer the free cash flow question.
James Kehoe
The free cash flow, if you look into next year how we can hold it, it's roughly half and half split between one-time expense and and working capital. There's a lot of factors that play into the cash flow.
It's the EBITDA flow-through, whether you sell license versus recurring. Many of different pieces.
We're incredibly comfortable on the ability to drive cash flow at a much faster pace, as demonstrated in the current year, where cash flow is up 40%.
Bryan Bergin
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Q&A program.
Thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program.
You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.