Lottomatica Group S.P.A.

Lottomatica Group S.P.A.

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 3, 2026

Operator

Good morning, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Lottomatica Group's Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call.

As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr.

Mirko Senesi, Head of Investor Relations of Lottomatica. Please go ahead, sir.

Mirko Senesi

Thanks, operator, and good morning to everyone. Welcome to Lottomatica full year results presentation.

I'm here today with our CEO, Guglielmo Angelozzi, and our CFO, Laurence Van Lancker. Now the floor directly to Guglielmo for the presentation.

Guglielmo, please.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Thank you, Mirko. Good morning to everybody.

We start from page 3 of the deck. Very happy to share with you that we had another very solid print for 2025.

EBITDA grows 21% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit 45%. We have returned a significant amount of capital to our shareholders, underpinned by our solid cash flow generation and our balance sheet capacity, €375 million, or €1.6 per share, divided between dividends and and buyback.

The net leverage is at 2.4 times, in line with 2024, because we used them well well well within our financial policy as we've used, as I said, our cash flow generation balance sheet capacity to for for the for the for the buyback. Without the buyback, this would have been at 2 times, at the very low end of the financial policy.

Page number 4, what are the key milestones that we've achieved in 2025? The PWO integration, first of all, it's been successfully completed.

We've implemented shy of €90 million synergies, 34% more than what originally announced. The full rate will be in effect in 2026, and PWO has gone back to growth after reaching, as we said, the the lowest peak at the end of the migration.

Very good on the market shares also. We gain 1.2 points as a group, including the historical brands and PWO, which you will see is more than 50% of the shares lost by the tails, and we reached 31.3% in Q4 2024, and we think there is more room to go into 2026.

The process for the renewal of the new online concession has been completed. New concessions are active since November 13.

There's a few more important steps, the certification of the the new systems and the and the go-live of the new full the the the the the new the new regulation on compliance, which is expected to happen in the summer of '26, but everything is on track. We optimized our cost of debt with a successful refinancing in April.

More than 50% of our debt was refinanced at the time with €24 million per annum in savings in interest costs. Now we stand at 5.3% total cost of debt, which is 240 bps lower than IPO.

Also in terms of governance, as since since June we are 100% float. We've entered the FTSE MIB in September.

Liquidity, including all sources, is now above €50 million per day, 15 times more than the IPO level. Also the independence of the board has been strengthened.

Today, with the new members that have joined after the exit of Apollo, we have 73% of independent directors and have appointed a lead independent director in July. Let's go at page number 4 of the presentation.

This is focus on the market shares. On the left, you can find the legacy brands.

The graph Legacy brands means basically everything except PWO, the Planetwin brand. The graph starts in 2022 because that is the year when we acquired the last asset which is the last asset before PWO, which is Betflag.

You can see there's been a constant growth of market share in the in in on the historical brands, on the legacy brands, and shy of 2 points also this year. As we had commented in the past, on the right graph, you can see the trend line for PWO, 7.1% at the acquisition, 7.1% at the start of the migration, lowest value at the end of the migration, as it's as it is usual and it's already happened in the past, 6%, and then relaunch progressing well, 6.3% at the end of for for Q4, for Q4 2025.

Overall, a very good performance, notwithstanding the factor factoring in the the pressure on market share on PWO because of the migration. Let's go to look at some of the competitive dynamics closer.

We are at page number 5 of the deck. As you can see from the graph on the left, this is the market share of the so-called tail operators, the smallest smaller operators.

They were at 16.6% in 2023, and lost a bit of market share, less than a point, in '24. That's pretty natural trend, but then they lose 2.1 points in 2025, with an acceleration in the last quarter of of of the year.

As I commented before, we take 1.2 points, which means basically more than 50% of the of the loss, basically more than the fair share, which would have been 30%, around 30%. We are at page 6 of the presentation.

I've commented on EBITDA growth, and this goes along with a significant adjusted net profit growth through the years. You can see that on the left the graph on the left.

We have more than doubled in the last 4 years the adjusted net profit, and which is which has grown also in the last in the last year, '24 to '25, of 45%. Even more important than this are the drivers behind this growth that you can find on the right graph of the page.

3/4 of the growth have come from organic growth and optimization projects. Organic growth meaning the baseline growth of the EBITDA, €86 million.

Then you have EBITDA, revenues, and Then you have €20 million of the coming from the optimization of the financing structure, and €48 million coming from the projects that we've executed on on extracting synergies from the M&A. Only €53 million, or 1/4, comes from that from EBITDA that actually we've paid for.

The accretion is is very not only relevant, but it's also very healthy in its composition. Page number 7 of the deck, let's get to the guidance for 2026.

We guide towards revenues of €2 billion 390 million to €2 billion 460 million for 2026. EBITDA will be in the range of 940 to €980 million.

Capex are in line with basically the previous pretty much in line with the previous year, recurring capex between 85 and 90 millions, and concession capex coming from, the mathematics of of the concession schemes at €78 million per year. In terms of capital returns, the dividend proposal is just basically follows strictly follows our dividend policy, 30% of adjusted net profit, which is €0.44 per share, or €111 million.

We are going to ask the the board is requesting an authorization to the AGM to buy back an additional 12.5% of the share capital in the next 18 months, which, at the current prices, correspond to circa 700 million in the period 2026-2027, including the shares that we will have bought by the date of the AGM with the with the share buyback which is currently in in in progress. With this, I leave the floor to Laurence.

Laurence, please.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thank you, Guglielmo. Moving on to page 9, you can see on the left-hand side our revenue growth has been +12% on a reported basis, and on the right-hand side, EBITDA has grown by 21%, with Q4 growing double-digit on a normalized basis.

In 2025, we closed the year at €856 million of EBITDA, with a 38% margin, which has grown from 35% in 2024, thanks to the higher margin of online that grows at a faster pace than the other two segments and the realization of synergies. Moving on to page 10, in line with previous quarters, here we can see that the online has continued to be the main growth engine with revenues up 22% and EBITDA up 26%.

Sports Franchise is also growing very nicely, both in terms of revenues, up 14%, and in terms of EBITDA, +31%, thanks also to the favorable payout that we've experienced in the year. Very favorable in H1, less favorable in H2.

Gaming Franchise has been broadly flat, +1% revenues, and with EBITDA +3%. Page 11, when you look on our left-hand side, the capex, you can see the recurring capex are broadly stable.

They're slightly lower than what we see in 2024, which is a testament to the scalability of our model. Look at concession capex, they're €113 million versus 63 the previous year.

This is predominantly due to the upfront payment of the online capex for the tender of the new online concession that we paid in November 2025. Growth capex and one-off capex, they are predominantly related to integration, with €24 million paid throughout the year, which we will not see in 2026, and then carryover from bolt-ons that we had guided at the beginning of the year for the activities carried out in 2024.

If you look at the right-hand side, you can see the operating cash flow growth of +18%, and this is also including the increase in concession capex. If we didn't include the upfront payment for the online concession capex, we would have had a growth of 24%.

At page 12, you can see the path from net debt from the 30th of September '25 to the 31st of December 2025. In addition to adjusted EBITDA, you have net negative effect of net working capital, as is typical given the seasonality of the business.

Taxes paid of €48 million. This is what we've paid the second installment for the taxes for the 2025 period that we paid end of October.

Capex of €96 million that includes also the payment of the concession capex, also for the 35 million of online. Financial expense and leases of €51 million.

Then you have 236 million euros of buyback that we actually implemented in the fourth quarter. That brings us to a total net financial debt at the end of the year of €2.1 billion, which equates to a net leverage of 2.4.

Had we not done the buyback, this year we would have had, as Guglielmo mentioned earlier, a net leverage of 2 turns. We continue to remain within our financial policy of 2 to 2.5 turns of leverage.

That will conclude.

Mirko Senesi

We can open up to the Q&A, operator. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * and 1 on their touchtone telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press * and 2. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions.

The first question is from Clark Lampen, BTIG. Please go ahead.

Clark Lampen

Thanks very much. Good morning, guys, and appreciate this morning's presentation.

I have two questions, if I may. The first is on the share capture discussion that we had, and you guys laid out very helpfully on slides 3 to 5.

I'm curious, when I strip out the PWO contribution, it looks like you guys took about 43% of long-tail share that was available. Could you help us understand how much of that growth was a function of Totosei relative to deals?

Now that we've had a few months to better understand the landscape, should we view this as sort of a sustainable rate of share capture on a go-forward basis? Second question that I have is on shareholder buybacks and M&A in relation to one another.

You've typically talked about those as sort of competing for the same excess cash supply. Should we interpret today's decision to allocate more capital towards repurchase as a signal that maybe throughout the concession process and following UK tax adjustments, that there's perhaps been less opportunity than you would have expected so far, and the priority is shifting to buybacks, or is that still sort of to be determined at this point?

Thanks very much. Hi,

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Clark. This is Guglielmo.

On the first question, well, the only thing in terms of, say, nonorganic that you have in the growth of the market share, let's say in Q4, is the Sportbet contribution. Roughly it's half and half that is the picture.

Not sure why you get to 43%, because compared to the beginning of the year, the contribution of PWO is actually negative. Not sure, on the legacy brands, the increase is what is that, 1 1.8 points, because you've had a decrease on Planet.

The total share that we take including PWO is 1.2 points over 2.1, which is more than 50%. Maybe I got it wrong, please correct me if I'm wrong.

To the key point of your question, you have only Sportbet there, it's kind of half and half. The other important part is, is a trend?

Yes, we think it's a trend because we think there is, of course, there is more to come on the, say, bolt-ons or this type of deals with minority with path to control, which we've explained last time. Also there is the possibility of continuing organic growth.

The environment is pretty constructive under this point of view. Now we don't take, as we don't take commitment on the market share because it's always very hard to guide on that, how the market share will go.

To give you a tendency, a flavor of the competitive environment, we think that there would be more pressure on tail operators in general, and that we are very well positioned to continue to capture market share.

Laurence Van Lancker

Maybe on the second point. Hi, Clark.

For the buyback, listen, we've increased the size of the buyback to 12.5% of the share capital because our cash flow generation is accelerating. We're deleveraging quite fast.

It comes naturally for us if you look at our cash flow generation profile that the buyback follows suit. We're basically following the same let's say capital allocation framework that we've been saying for some time.

The excess cash goes to buybacks, which competes with M&A, as we've said also the bar is pretty high. I wouldn't read any signal in that, other than the fact that we continue to follow exactly the same approach as we've done historically.

Now the only thing to read in this, I think, is the increase is just a function of the acceleration of our cash flow generation and deleverage.

Clark Lampen

That's very helpful. Appreciate the comments.

Certainly no corrections to offer on our end. I think we just bucketed the PWO sequential share capture in the wrong place.

Thanks, guys.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thank you, Clark.

Operator

The next question is from Estelle Weingrod, J.P. Morgan.

Please go ahead.

Estelle Weingrod

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

I would have a first question also on capital allocation in the context of M&A opportunities out there. I wanted to ask if Evoke Italy was an option, and if you were looking at it, if it would make sense to you.

A second question on the retail concession, is there any progress you've heard of on the government's discussions with the regions on finding a potential agreement? Thank you.

Estelle,

Laurence Van Lancker

I think I'll answer the first question. We won't comment on specific names.

I think, as we monitor all potential targets within the framework that we've mentioned, which is across Europe and of course that includes Italy as well. We're not going to comment on specific names.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Estelle, this is Guglielmo. On the retail concession, the government is still working on the decree.

As I commented a few times before, it's a very solid and constructive setup. The ball is still on the government's court in order to come up with and approve a proposal that then will have to be discussed in the so-called Conferenza Unificata, which is the joint conference of the regions and the government.

We stand pretty much in the same place as the last time we spoke, except there's been more work done in refining the decree on the government side, really working on the details and things and talking to the industry, the association. It's really very much about that, but nothing more than that, I would say.

Estelle Weingrod

Thank you.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ed Young, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ed Young

Good morning. Two for me as well, please.

On the World Cup, obviously it's a revenue and an EBITDA opportunity, but it's also an opportunity to engage players and grow actives. How have you treated the potential of Italy being successful in the March play-in tournament or not within your guidance?

Could you perhaps give some color of the level of engagement you'd expect for Lottomatica if Italy were or weren't to make the tournament, how vital is that, or what's the kind of level of difference, and yeah, how is that treated in the guidance? Then second of all, on the buyback, I guess chiming in on Clark's comment, could you perhaps give a little bit of color on the cadence of what we should expect for buybacks, how we should perhaps think about what you might do in '26 and '27 within your leverage framework?

Thanks.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

On the World Cup

Laurence Van Lancker

I would say that it doesn't really move the needle as much. As you say, it's an important period for us to acquire customers.

It's a very important one. The guidance already includes the outcome whether Italy is in the World Cup or not.

It doesn't really move the needle as much. On the pace and the cadence of the buyback, we will continue to do the buyback basically at the same pace that we've been doing so far.

I think if you run the numbers and you look at where we stay at a constant leverage, say we'll probably do a bit more next year and a bit less this year, but we'll see as we move along. We give the mandate to a bank who executes the buyback, and then we may or may not adjust the pace as we go along, but we don't make those adjustments often, frankly.

We've made one last year in November through an acceleration. Our plan is, all other things being equal, that we will carry out up to the full amount for '26 and '27.

Ed Young

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ben Shelley, UBS. Please go ahead.

Ben Shelley

Hi, team. Thanks for the presentation, and thanks for taking my questions.

I've got two. One, I guess the implied EBITDA margin guide is quite a bit ahead of consensus.

Can you elaborate on the underlying drivers supporting that margin outlook, especially in online? My second question is about the consolidation opportunity.

Do you think the technical testing to be completed in the summer of 2026 can offer more market share opportunity? Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

I'll take the first one. If you look at the implied margin expansion for '26, it's predominantly driven by mix.

It's online growing significantly faster than the other segments. Given, if you look at the margins for the year, they're 2025, they're in the mid-50s.

If you assume a similar margin for '26, you get to an implied margin that is for the year that is higher. That you get to around the 39%, if you look at the midpoints.

The online is the main driver. Of course, you also have some effect of synergies that are coming in because, whilst we've completed everything we had to do for the integration of PWO, there is still a run-rate effect that you haven't seen all in 2025.

We've got another €24 million of synergy, a run-rate effect in 2020 2026 that flows through the P&L.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Hi, Ben. On the consolidation related to the phase two of the concession, they call it technical testing and full compliance, a part of the activities will be carried out by May 13, as originally planned.

Another part will most likely be postponed. It's still probably question mark of whether it's, I don't know, it's August, it's September, because of just technical reasons.

It really doesn't move the needle. It doesn't change the fact that this is clearly another opportunity to make this market more robust, easy to manage, clear to understand.

Of course, whenever you have this kind of transitions, it may happen that well-equipped operators are in a better position like we are. Can this be an opportunity?

Yes. The more we go towards the final model, the better it is.

This will happen. Some things will happen in May.

Some things will be most likely pushed, I don't know, it's still to be decided whether it's September or around that, but short answer, yes.

Ben Shelley

Thanks, guys. That makes perfect sense.

Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Fabio Pavan, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Fabio Pavan

Yes, hi. Good morning, and thank you for taking my two questions.

The first one is if you can help us in building up expectation for cash flow generation in '26. We will have €100 million higher EBITDA, but also optimization in interest cost, cash cost, and my question is, we should still assume some bolt-on acquisition for this year or not?

The second question is on product evolution. My view is that clearly your market share gain is also driven by your tech platform and your ability to launch new products, I was wondering if you can share with us some update on this.

Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

I'll take the first one on. On cash flows, yes, it's a bit more than €100 million of EBITDA if you take the midpoint.

From a capex perspective, the recurring capex are not moving very much because they are driven by the size of our retail footprint and it includes also technology spend in there, and it is very scalable. Those costs don't really increase, the capex level really stays the same at the recurring level.

Concession capex is pretty much known with €78 million, so that will not move. With that, really the drop-through is pretty material.

Then when you look at what the interest costs are on a run-rate basis, I think you know that we are running at around €105 million of pretax interest costs per annum. Add to that another €15 million between RCF and guarantees, you get to 120.

That's not moving. It's lower than last year.

Then of course you've got taxes. Leases are around €29 million per annum.

Again, it's a pretty scalable business now that we're seeing and online is accelerating. All the incremental EBITDA really drops down through to cash net of taxes.

In terms of bolt-ons, when you look at the levered free cash flow generation, our framework has been 30% of the adjusted net profit goes to dividends, it's pretty easy to model. Then the rest is basically bolt-ons and buybacks.

On the size of the bolt-ons, we'll look at this. We're working on the pipeline.

It's definitely been at lower levels than what we've seen in 2024. We don't guide on that because it really depends on how we execute on that pipeline when maintaining price discipline.

Then the rest is predominantly buybacks. So 2026 is, as a number of you have pointed out, it's a inflection point in terms of cash flow generation, as we've seen that also in the graph that Guglielmo showed earlier showing the adjusted net profit evolution over time.

And 2026 will see fewer extraordinaries given that also we've completed the integration of PWO, a big chunk of extraordinaries will basically disappear.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Hi, Fabio. On the product, you're perfectly right.

That is one of the key drivers of the growth of the market share, and of course that goes with the technology. What I can say is that we have a very healthy pipeline, especially on the part of what we call the Lottomatica Core, the MarTech infrastructure that you have above the gaming platforms, which allows to optimize the digital marketing in all its aspects, to improve the risk management.

All the things that are in the Lottomatica Core are a key differentiating component and key part of our road map. Just a small note, the technical certification of the systems at a certain point will require for the entire market a slowdown of the new products launch on the market because basically you need to somehow freeze the product while it's been certified.

That's in the first half ideally, if the dates are confirmed. That's for the entire market.

As an overall, in 2026, the road map on the product side is really strong. Again, I think we put some focus in the past earnings call in presentation of the Lottomatica Core.

That is a key area because you always think that you work on the product. Of course, you get new games for casino, you present them better, you improve the user experience, you present new bets, but then it's super important how you deliver that to your clients, to which clients you deliver them, how efficient and what's the level of efficacy of your digital marketing activities.

That's really a component which will become more and more important in the future. That's the picture.

Fabio Pavan

Thank you very much. Very clear.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Thank you.

Chiara Pampurini

Thank you. Good morning.

You already gave us some information on how the consolidation process is progressing. You have taken the stake in Sportbet.

If I may ask, could you give us some color on how this is going on and if you are closing similar deals? Also on Totosei, if you're seeing increase in market share.

Thank you.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Yeah. You want to go?

You go. Sorry.

Laurence Van Lancker

Listen, if you look at sort of Sportbet, we've taken a 20% stake. As we have a path to control to get to 100% throughout the concession period.

That's how the deal structure works. We've taken a minority, and we're very happy that the shareholders are staying in to continue to drive the business in a complementary way with ours.

Are there any other deals like this? Yes, we look at them.

We're in discussion for other potential deals, and as soon as we will close them, we'll announce them. I think in terms of Totosei, there's nothing really major to report.

I think the market share has proven to be quite stable over the past few months. There's nothing to report on that side.

Chiara Pampurini

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Tam, Rothschild Redburn. Please go ahead.

Andrew Tam

Hi. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question.

Just a quick clarification question on slide page 4 just on the market share. I know you said you don't guide to the market share per se, but I guess the question is just in terms of legacy brands, the current I guess annual trajectory of the market share gains, would you say in 2026 are there reasons for that to continue, or do you believe not to be the case given the new online concession model?

Then just in terms of PWO, is the target there to recapture that 1 percentage point of share lost pre the migration, and are there any strategies or initiatives in play at the moment to recapture that? Thanks.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Hi, Andrew. This is Guglielmo.

Of course we don't guide, but yeah, the the short answer is yes, we do believe that the legacy brands have still room to grow also in 2026. On the specific point of PWO, what's our target?

The target is to recover the entire 1%, so that's pretty much as it happened at the time for the Lottomatica/Betflag brand when we did the acquisition of the assets from from from IGT. It's pretty much the same strategy, though refined through time.

When you when we finish It's already in execution. When we finish the migration and we have the new product in place, we started reactivation campaigns of customers who had disappeared or reduced the frequency or amount because of the noise of the migration with specific campaigns.

Then we've extended the reactivation campaigns to customers that we had in the database and that had not been playing for a long time even before the migration to try to recover share also from from from that side, because we could go and present to them a new product which we believe was better than the previous one. That's another important campaign.

That's basically, if you move aside the the better quality of the product and of the offer, in terms of of what are the tools, you basically run dedicated campaign to these key clusters. Customers who have stopped playing during the migration, customers who have decreased frequency during the migration, customers who have decreased spend during the migrations, and customers who were lost before the migration, but can be contacted again on the basis of a better offer.

Then, of course, there are tons of ways to get there. I'm not getting into the details, but you use all the digital marketing levers to get there.

That's basically the the principle, and it's it's started basically at the end of the migration, and we will continue.

Andrew Tam

Got it. Just to follow up on you mentioned the comment capturing more than 50% of the share losses from the tails.

Do you expect that to continue into 2026 in terms of more of the same or even potentially for that to accelerate?

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Again, it's hard to get into detail because otherwise we would be guiding. We gave a total size of the opportunity from the tails, which can be 7% to 10%, saying that we had already signed 2 points.

Of course, you would aspire to do at least the fair share of that total pool at the end of the game, at least the fair share. We started better than that because we did more than the fair share, more than 50%, but that's the framework.

Then, that's the data points. Then, of course, any other information would be a guidance.

[laughter]

Andrew Tam

Perfect. Really appreciate it.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

My pleasure. Bye, Andrew.

Operator

The next question is from Pravin Gouniyal, Barclays. Please go ahead.

Pravin Gouniyal

Hello. Thanks for taking my questions.

Firstly, on online sports, previously you talked about both retail and online combined GGR in sports growing at sort of sustainable high-single-digit. Online has been a bit softer in 2025.

Could you please talk about are you taking any sort of additional steps to drive that online growth in sports? Then secondly, on Sportbet, you suggested that there are similar sort of deals in your M&A pipeline there.

Could you talk about the size and potential valuation levels of those deals? Thank you very much.

Laurence Van Lancker

I'll take it. Listen, I think if you look at the data in January for online sports, we've actually seen very good growth not only in terms of GGR, but also in terms of handle.

I think the handle has grown roughly about 14%. Here we're talking about if you look at our numbers and that are disclosed if you look at the market shares, and at the GGR level, it's grown 15%.

It's pretty healthy market, and we're continuing to see this trend even at a handle level. I think this reflects the fact and at the same time, on the retail side, the sports retail business is growing faster than we had expected.

Both at a handle level and at the GGR level. On a combined basis, we're double-digit in January, both at a handle level as well as at a GGR level.

This just gives you also the comfort that it continues to remain a very healthy market, a very healthy segment. We're continuing to see this also, even after January.

It is definitely continuing to be a market that will continue to remain volatile by nature if you look at the GGR because you have volatility of results, and you have different schedules of games that are being played between the periods that you compare. As we've mentioned several times, if you look at the monthly GGR on a combined basis, it shows you that there's a very clear trend line for the sports business across both channels.

Then the difference between the two, as we mentioned earlier, iSports historically had grown faster. Last year, it wasn't the case.

The beginning of this year, it looks like that iSports is growing faster as the previous years. As we had said from a contribution margin perspective, when GGR moves from one channel to the other, it doesn't really make much of a difference.

The contribution margin for sports is very similar, we continue to believe that these are the right assumptions, that we have a growth of around 7% to 8% at a combined level for sports, and then the relative growth, naturally iSports will grow a little bit higher. As we've seen this year, actually, iSports has been growing double-digit.

In that sense, we confirm our thesis on this segment. Terms of size, when we talk about Sportbet, we're talking about similar sizes.

They're small, just to answer very shortly the question. They're small businesses, they're sub-1% market share.

They're small businesses, and the valuation is definitely highly accretive to our business.

Pravin Gouniyal

Thank you very much. This is really helpful, and congratulations on the results.

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Domenico Ghilotti, Equita. Please go ahead.

Domenico Ghilotti

Good morning. A few questions.

On the buyback, how is the approach if there is a retail tender? I'm trying to understand if this will affect the pace of the buyback.

Second, I have a question on 2025 numbers. If I look back at your original guidance, you ended something like €100 million lower in terms of sales, I'm trying to understand what has been performing differently compared to your initial expectation while EBITDA has been bang in line.

Third, on the 2026 guidance, if you can give us some sense of the trend that you are expecting on gaming franchise and maybe even sports franchise. I'm trying to understand if growth is coming only from online.

Laurence Van Lancker

I can take this. Listen, the buyback will continue for as long as we continue to remain within our financial policy.

We're quite mindful of that. To the extent there'll be a tender, we will look at the numbers, see how the leverage is impacted, and we'll act accordingly.

This is pretty much a function of that. From a guidance in 2025, if you compare it to the original guidance, as we mentioned in the third quarter results, it's pretty much the result of PWO being integrated earlier.

We realized the synergies earlier at the cost level, and therefore we had the impact at the revenue level earlier during the year. Throughout the year, we've seen a higher or more of an unfavorable impact on revenues, but a more favorable impact at the cost level, thanks to the acceleration of the implementation of the synergies.

For 2026, I'd say online, it's really more of the same. I think it's been quite a number of quarters we've been sort of seeing exactly the same trends.

Online will continue to remain the growth engine. Retail, if you look at sports, sports retail we continue to see their bit of mid-single-digit growth.

We've seen better so far since the beginning of this year, but obviously you have to factor in the volatility of the results. It's been exceeding the expectations there.

For gaming retail, it depends on the level of bolt-ons that we'll see in the course of this year, because if you don't do any bolt-ons, it's a business that will naturally decline sort of low- to mid-single-digit.

Domenico Ghilotti

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Bonfà, Banca Akros. Please go ahead.

Andrea Bonfà

Hi. Thank you.

Good morning to everybody. Most of my questions have been answered, if I may, just for the clarification on your guidance let's say framework, if it's possible for you to specifically comment on the growth rate expectation for iGaming, if it's that high-teens, mid-teens, or low-teens.

The second one is a clarification. In your press release, you mentioned €300 million of buyback, and in your NFP build-up, you mentioned €236 million.

If you can just comment on that. Thank you very much indeed.

Laurence Van Lancker

Sure, I'll answer the the second question first. The no, we've done €300 million in in 2025.

The numbers that the number you're referring to is what we've done in Q3 Q4, sorry. In Q4, we've done 236.

The balance was done since we started the it was done in Q3. As we started at at, towards the end of June.

The the remaining part was done was done before was done in Q3. That gives us we've done, all in all, €300 million of buybacks in 2025.

In terms of guidance, we if we think about the guidance, we will continue to see sort of online growth in the teens. IGaming, it is what we've seen Listen, January and February so far, we've we've grown at 19%.

The market has grown 19%, we've grown a bit faster than that. We expect to see here anywhere between mid- mid- to high-teens of of growth in this segment.

Hope hopefully that that that helps frame it.

Andrea Bonfà

Thank you very much, and congratulations for the results and the guidance.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Richard Stuber, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Richard Stuber

Hi. Good morning.

Most of my questions have been already asked. Just one final one, a more general one, on AI, if that's okay.

Presumably you use it across most of your businesses. Could you say where it has been most impactful?

Is gaming content now sort of generally sort of quicker and easier to make? Thank you.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Hi, Richard. This is Guglielmo.

I'll take this one. Look, the impact of AI, I would say, is when you look at the business, then it has impacts on many other aspects of the company.

It's mainly on the on the online business for the moment being. Doesn't matter whether it's sports or it's or it's iGaming or it's digital marketing in general.

Then, of course, you have impact also on logistics, you have impacts on a bunch of internal processes, you have impact on customer care, which are across the businesses. You will have you will have impact in the future on the production of games, I believe also for the retail gaming machines.

When you look at the core impact in terms of revenue potential, today you see that on all the segments of the online business, and spanning from risk management, the agents that manage the risk, basically, to to communication, production of communication campaigns, to affiliate management, to content proposition on the casino, there's there's really a ton of things. Then you specifically ask about one point, which is will AI make the production of games, I assume you're referring to iGaming, to casino, basically, easier?

Of course, yes, which is which is not our part of the business. We are, it's a small part because we have some studios inside, mostly we buy from outside providers, which we believe is a very good thing, because if you that's a very competitive environment.

We have more than 100 providers giving us thousands of games. If these providers are able to design and launch new games which are better, in the sense more effective, and at a cheaper cost, then it's just good news for us, for us and for the market, because you can have access basically at better content at cheaper price, given the fact that this is a very competitive environment.

For that specific use, the answer is yes, and and it's very good news for the ecosystem in general. Really, the use of AI is is not really limited to that.

It really, as I mentioned to you, some cases some use cases spans from every single angle of of the company. We haven't really done an exercise or shared an exercise of showing what's been the impact of what we've done so far because we're approaching this with a clear road map in mind, but from use cases which are coming bottom-up.

What can be done is spread as knowledge throughout the company. The architecture allowing for that is there, but then everybody would ask for a specific use case, and if it's if it makes sense, then it's developed.

Otherwise, if it doesn't make sense, the investment case, it's not developed. It's it's really already a very wide penetration across the board.

Richard Stuber

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Thank you very much.

Mirko Senesi

Okay. I think we are done with the Q&A, operator, we can close the call.

Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephone.