Lottomatica Group S.P.A.

Lottomatica Group S.P.A.

25.08
EUR
+0.26
(+1.05%)
0.94EPS
26.22P/E
5.67BMarket Cap
Nov 02Next Earn

Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 6, 2026

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

Welcome and thank you for joining Lottomatica Group's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode.

After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mirko Senesi, Head of IR at Lottomatica.

Please go ahead, sir.

Mirko Senesi

Thanks, operator, and good morning to everyone. Welcome to Lottomatica Q1 2026 results presentation.

I'm here today with our CEO, Guglielmo Angelozzi, and our CFO, Laurence Van Lancker. Now, the floor directly to Guglielmo for the presentation.

Guglielmo, please.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Thanks, Mirko, and good morning, everybody. We can start with page 2 of the presentation.

Very happy to set with you another very good quarter. EBITDA continues to grow double-digit on a normalized level, and also revenues.

We have a positive 7% EBITDA also on a reported basis, notwithstanding the negative sports payout in the quarter. This is on the back of a very strong market.

As you can appreciate from the two graphs on the below part of the slide, online has continued to grow mid-double-digit in terms of bets, and so total sports, meaning online and retail. At the same time, we've performed well in comparative terms, as you will appreciate in a few minutes.

Let's go to page number 3. This is the list of the main items that we think is relevant to comment for the quarter.

As I said, the market has been strong. Tail operators have continued to lose market share, particularly in iGaming.

No issue from prediction market, notwithstanding a recent sponsorship. They continue to be illegal.

The product consumer mismatch continues to be strong. We don't believe there is any market space.

At the same time, sponsorship have basically no impact in enhancing local brands. Very good news on PWO market shares.

iGaming, we've recovered half of the share that we lost through the migration. We're a bit behind in terms of iSports, but this is explained by the market trend on overall sports, meaning online plus franchise, which franchise has been particularly strong in the last few quarters.

It is the case also for us. If you look at total sports, we have recovered to pre-migration levels at 9%.

We'll see more detail in a few minutes. There's been a refinancing done with the important raising more capital, more debt, €765 million.

400 was a refi, and additional capital for general corporate purposes, including buyback and bolt-on acquisitions. The overall consequence of this is that we lower our cost of debt from 5.3% to 4.9%.

Page number 4, all that I have said leads to strong confidence on us being at the top end of the guidance for 2026. Also in being able to confirm our strong commitment on capital returns, with up to €1 billion to be returned to shareholders in '26 and '27, including dividends.

The key words are: continued growth and continued returns to shareholders. Now let's go quickly page-by-page to see the relevant items that I mentioned a couple of minutes ago.

Strong market momentum. You see the details here.

iGaming grows mid-double-digit. iSports grows mid-double-digit.

Sports retail shy of that, of course in terms of bet, because that's the only thing you can look at given the payout dynamic in the quarter. Page number 6, you can appreciate the details of the tail operators progression and our progression in terms of market share.

This is on iGaming. On the tail operators, you continue to see the sharp decrease trend.

It was progressing throughout the year, and it was an overall trend, but it has accelerated starting from the new concession. From the 2024, 4.5 4.4 points, which is roughly 25% of the total market share that this cluster had has been lost.

We continue to grow market share. The 32.2% that you see there is including an additional bolt-on that we've made after Sportbet.

We've done another deal with Bigame, this is pro forma for that. Very good performance, both organically and with our deals that allow us to quicker consolidate, take advantage of the erosion of the tails.

Page number 7, super fast. I just commented a few minutes ago on prediction markets.

There's a bunch of data points here that you can look at and that show why this is not at all an issue for us. I think we can go directly to page number 8, which is the progression on PWO.

We've separated from iGaming and sports. iGaming, half of the market share which had been lost due to the migration has been recovered.

There's a consistent path, there's not really volatility in the progression. Page number 9 is the same trend for sports.

You can see in the graph sports as a total completely recovered, and then the detail and the breakdown between iSports and sports franchise. There is still room to go in iSports, but this has been compensated by a more than favorable trend on sports franchise.

This is the consequence of the trend that we have observed at an overall level in the market, and also, as it was mentioned before, by the fact that actually the retail recovery was structurally faster. As our GGR to EBITDA contribution from the two segments is pretty much about the same.

Actually this is very good news. Page number 10, it's basically a summary.

We wanted to recap and make sure we're all on the same page and we fully appreciate the business model of Lottomatica, the overall framework and setup. On one side, you have a very strong and resilient business model because of a bunch of reasons, including omnichannel, product, tech, AI leverage, which results into top-line growth, cost control, and scalability, and demonstrated M&A and integration capabilities.

That's the core business part. Then we believe we have a very robust and savvy capital structure, and as you've seen, we continue to optimize our balance sheet and through that the financing costs.

We believe we have a smart capital allocation, meaning a good balance between organic growth compared to M&A and compared to the right shareholder remuneration. This results into growth and returns, which is the first page and the last page of this section of the presentation.

We wanted to do an interesting exercise, I believe. We took all European listed companies with market cap above €5 billion.

We went to filter those which have grown at least 10% with EBITDA, then those who have at least 30% EBITDA margin, then those who have at least 75% of cash flow conversion, really cutting the parameters at the top end of the range. Then those which have a total shareholder returns of at least 100% in 2 years.

Then you're left with three companies, which is of course less than 1% over the almost 400 companies that we started with. That's basically the result of the model that you see on the left: growth and returns.

I leave the floor to Laurence.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thank you, Guglielmo. On page 12, you can see that on a normalized basis, our revenues are up +10% and EBITDA +22%.

On a reported basis, despite the payout headwinds, revenues were up +3% and EBITDA +7%. Just as a reminder, we are comparing a Q1 '26 with a very unfavorable payout to a Q1 '25 with a very favorable payout.

Lastly, I'd say our EBITDA margin has hit 39% due to the higher weight of online in this quarter. Moving on to page 13, here again we see on a normalized basis how we have continued to see good growth for both online and sports, still double-digit territory.

We are +17% for revenues online, +11% for sports franchise, and on an EBITDA level +29% and +21% respectively for online and sports. Now when you look at it on a reported basis, you can see what the impact of the payout affecting mainly the sports franchise segment.

Whilst despite the unfavorable payout, online EBITDA has still grown by 18%. Gaming franchise is flat at a revenue level and slightly up, +4% in Q1, partly due to bolt-ons and distribution insourcing, and also some timing of costs, which we will reverse during the course of the year.

Page 14, on the left-hand side, you can see the total CapEx, including recurring and concession, amounted to €39 million, of which €25 million recurring, slightly higher than the previous year, and the €14 million concession CapEx in line with previous year. On the right-hand side, you can see that operating cash flow reached €196 million, up +6% from last year.

This growth number, if we had normalized both '26 and '25 Q1 for payout, would have been +25%. Page 15, we close the quarter here with a net financial leverage of 2.3 turns and the cash of €119 million.

Looking at the bridge from the net debt as at the 31st of December '25, you have EBITDA, then a negative working capital absorption in Q1 reflecting the typical seasonality of the business, CapEx, financial expenses and leases, and then we acquired €56 million worth of stock in Q1. Then other, which also include extraordinary items in relation to the closure of our Serbian branch, which leads us to a net debt of €2.052 billion on the 31st of March 2026, equivalent to a net leverage, as I said earlier, of 2.3 turns.

That's it on our side.

Mirko Senesi

Thank you, operator. I think we can open up for the questions.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone.

To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions.

Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. That's star and one.

We will pause momentarily as callers join the queue. The first question is from Ben Shelley with UBS.

Please go ahead.

Ben Shelley

Hi, good morning, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. I've got two, please.

First, I hear you on the opening remarks, but could you expand a bit more on EBITDA margins in the quarter? Specifically online EBITDA margins, any color on the drivers there would be much appreciated.

Then my second question on online bet growth of 15%, could you talk about exactly what's behind that, particularly in iSports, where I don't think we've seen double-digit volume growth for some time? Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Hi. Surely.

On the EBITDA margin in online, it's 57.5% this quarter. Q1 has been a good quarter in terms of volumes, so that is one factor that contributes to the favorable margins.

Also we are seeing the full impact now of the synergies, Q1 '26 versus Q1 '25, of the synergies that we've realized for PWO. Let's say these are the main drivers.

In terms of bet growth in sports, first of all, we are also comparing two periods with different payouts. Q1 was very favorable to us, and this Q1 '26 was very unfavorable to us.

There is some payout dynamic also that impacts the bet growth. I would say that we have seen this continued growth since the beginning of the year.

There's no real other reason than some of the payout dynamics. We continue to believe that this segment in aggregate will continue to grow in the midterm at around 8%.

Ben Shelley

Thanks, guys.

Operator

The next question comes from Estelle Weingrod with J.P. Morgan.

Please go ahead.

Estelle Weingrod

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Just again on the online margins, you mentioned in the past a level in the mid-50s would make sense longer term.

Is it still the case, or should we be looking at something a bit higher, high 50s or something? I have another question on the PWO market share evolution.

May I ask why is iSports lagging the sports franchise in terms of the recovery versus pre-migration level, please? Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Hi, Estelle. I can take both.

On the online margin, we had one good quarter of good margins. I would still say that we're the mid-50s, maybe in the midterm we're a bit at the high end of the mid-50s.

We have a scope definitely to potentially do a little bit better than that. Anyway, let's see how things progress also over the course of the year.

On PWO and the market share, Planet is one of our most omnichannel brands of the whole portfolio. As the shift between channels is much more permeable.

Therefore the demand has moved in the past few quarters more on the retail side than on the online side. I'd say, but it happens in omnichannel, especially for highly omnichannel brands.

We've continued to see this as well at the beginning of this year, where retail was very, very strong and online was doing well, but not as well as retail. We might see a reversal of this going forward, we'll see.

As just as a reminder, as you already know, Estelle, it doesn't really matter to us from a profitability standpoint, because when GGR moves from retail to online and vice versa, the contribution margin is very, very similar. We're quite indifferent to this shift.

Estelle Weingrod

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Fabio Pavan with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Fabio Pavan

Yes, hi. Good morning.

Thank you for taking my questions. I have one on your decision to update full-year guidance.

Given your prudent approach, I think this is probably best news we have today. I was wondering if this is mainly driven by stronger-than-expected market dynamics, or higher increase in market share, better margins, or a mix of these three elements?

Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Thanks, Fabio. It's it's really a combination of all of of all these factors.

I'd say that volumes have been extremely strong in this first quarter, and we're seeing continued growth after that. That gave us it's it's definitely one of the elements that gave us confidence to put us at the high end of the guidance.

The other element, more on the cost side, is we we see some of the bene- some impact also from the from the the the closure of the Serbian branch, which has moved the which has contributed from a cost standpoint to increased the the range of the increased the positioned ourselves at the high end of the guidance. I think so these are the main I think these are the main drivers.

I would say that probably the one of the determining factors is has been the very strong market growth.

Fabio Pavan

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Clark Lampen with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Clark Lampen

Thanks very much. I have two quick ones, if I may.

On the online margin trajectory over the balance of the year, just curious if you could share any perspectives around the phasing and I guess sort of timeline for margin improvement over the balance of the year. Just curious if there are either comparison headwinds that we should be aware of, the '25 timeframe, or any lumpiness on the network side or with fixed costs this year, maybe beyond I guess what you just mentioned with Serbia.

Then another I guess sort of clarification with volume growth over the balance of the year. I think if I heard you right before, Laurence, in the first answer, you mentioned that we should think about 8% over the balance of the year.

Is that the right way of thinking about the embedded growth assumptions for the online business? If so, is there anything meaningful factored in and either 2Q or 3Q for World Cup tailwinds?

Thanks a lot.

Laurence Van Lancker

Hey, Clark. On the online margin, if you look at the evolution over the quarters, obviously assuming that all all else being equal, Q1 and Q4 are the strongest quarters of the year, and Q2 and Q3 tend to be the let's say the weakest quarters of the weakest quarters of the year.

You have a seasonality dimension to take to take into account. The second thing I'd say is that because in Q1 you were comparing Q1 '26, where you have the full run rate effect of the synergies, with a Q1 '25, where we were still in the process of implementing synergies, there's there's an element there that has that, compares favorably when you when you when you look at the two when you compare the two quarters.

In terms of volume growth, 8% is our our sort of midterm view of the overall sports segment, including retail and online. We'll we'll this year, we obviously we have our projections and which is what is ultimately is reflected in in the guidance, but we do have a some tailwind from from the World Cup.

That helps as well.

Clark Lampen

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita. Please go ahead.

Domenico Ghilotti

Good morning. Two questions.

One is on the synergies. I was trying to understand if we have to assume that Q1 is at full run rate because you are mentioning the Serbian branch closure, I'm trying to understand if it was already driving results in Q1 or is something that will be left and in case how much we can expect from this action.

Second, on the current trading, you made reference to very supportive trend also beyond Q1. I haven't seen data so far, if you can share a little bit what's going on.

Laurence Van Lancker

Yeah. This is on the Serbian part, I'd say that it's all run rated.

I would just assume that it's already run rated in Q1. For the second question, we have to wait for Agimeg data that comes out.

There's nothing surprising in the information. I think we'll continue to see very very solid volume growth throughout April, and very encouraging results already in May.

Domenico Ghilotti

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Pravin Gondhale with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Pravin Gondhale

Hello, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Firstly, can we chat about the gaming franchise EBITDA margins drivers this year? EBITDA margins were really strong in Q1 this year.

What are your sort of outlook for rest of the year from here? Then secondly, any update on retail concession tender you have to share?

Thank you. Yeah.

I'll

Laurence Van Lancker

take the first one. On the gaming franchise, it's two two two impacts.

One is the impact of the distribution insourcing that improves our margins. As we've continued to carry out that activity throughout '25 and in early '26, you see the benefit of that.

There's also an element of timing of costs. When you budget for the year, some costs may move between quarters.

This quarter has been a bit lighter on costs, you should assume that at a margin level we continue to see at margin levels between 23% and 24%.

Guglielmo Angelozzi

Hi, Pravin. I'll take the one on the retail concession.

No updates compared to last time. As there is a very solid framework which has been prepared by the regulator.

It's very hard to say if it's going to be approved and when it's going to be approved as you need the agreement with the regions in the end. I think everybody is highly committed to that.

Very hard to make forecasts. What we can say is basically two things: it's very robust, balanced, and constructive framework, as you all know.

Second point, you'll need, in any case, time to implement that and to execute upon that, because really it's a complicated process, it takes time. The framework is there, and it's very good.

Pravin Gondhale

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Chiara Pampurini with Intermonte. Please go ahead.

Chiara Pampurini

Thank you. Good morning.

I get a question about bolt-on acquisition. You said the proceeds of new bond issued are also for bolt-on M&A.

My question is if you have selected some targets, are you seeing some target other than Bigame? About Bigame, if you can share with us the market share gain you expect from this acquisition, and if the operation was similar to that of Sportbet or has another structure?

Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Yeah. When we talk about bolt-ons, we have an active pipeline that we continue to work on across the different segments.

We look at gaming franchise, sports franchise, as well as online. That has not changed in the sense that, as you can imagine, we won't have capacity to buy more than 350 million of bolt-ons.

We're talking about tens of millions that we can actually implement in maintaining price discipline. This is basically in continuity with the bolt-on activity that we've been carrying out for the last 2 to 3 the last few years.

With regards to Bigame, it's around 0.7% of market share. Thanks.

Chiara Pampurini

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Bonfà of Banca Akros. Please go ahead.

Andrea Bonfà

Hello. Good afternoon to everybody.

I've got just one clarification on your EBITDA guidance. Does it implicitly assume that in order to reach the top part of the EBITDA, that you count on a payout which will be lower than you've been budgeting for in order to compensate the Q1 negative payout, or you're counting more on the mix side or on some lower cost side?

Thank you very much.

Laurence Van Lancker

Hi. Listen, it's a combination of both, really.

I would say, we have faster top-line growth that puts us at the high end of the guidance, as we said earlier, and also some better cost efficiencies, as well as we're reaping some of the benefits of some operating leverage as well.

Andrea Bonfà

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Richard Stuber of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Richard Stuber

Thank you. Good morning.

Just two for me. First, just a clarification again on your guidance.

I think you've guided to the top of the EBITDA range of 940 to 980. Is it fair to assume that you're also sort of guiding to the top end of your revenue range as well, the 2,390 to 2,460?

My second question is on the share buyback. I think you did 56 million in the first quarter, you're guiding towards about 700 over the next two years.

Could you give some sort of guidance in terms of how quickly that will ramp up, any sort of guidance in terms of what sort of buyback you expect to do in the next few quarters? Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Sure. Listen, we're comfortable on the EBITDA guidance at the high end.

On the revenue side, we'll see. It depends on ultimately where we'll end up, because at an EBITDA you have a confluence of both revenue growth as well as operating leverage and cost efficiencies.

For now, we just maintain high end of EBITDA guidance, and not of revenue guidance. For the buyback, we will do less than half this year, and more than half next year.

Richard Stuber

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Tam with Rothschild & Co Redburn. Please go ahead.

Andrew Tam

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

You included Sportbet and Bigame in your market share statistics. Can I just clarify whether those are fully consolidated into your revenue and EBITDA?

If not, if you did fully consolidate that, what that would add to your revenue and EBITDA growth? Thanks.

Laurence Van Lancker

Sure. We consolidated them in the market share.

We will start consolidating them at some point, but for now they're not in. I'd say that if you look at the impact that it has on our EBITDA growth, at this point I would say it's not material.

Andrew Tam

Okay. Thank you.

Laurence Van Lancker

Operator. I think we are done with the questions, we can close the call.