ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna

ORLEN Spolka Akcyjna

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 28, 2026

Jakub Frejlich

Clock is ticking. We're just past 8:00, this is the time for the morning coffee with ORLEN to discuss Q1 results for the 2026.

Here we gathered in ORLEN headquarters. The meeting will be hosted by Sławomir Jędrzejczyk, company CFO.

Together with the CFO, we're sitting in the room. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations.

We have Damian Wieczorek, Head of Group Controlling. We have Marcin Piechota and Konrad Włodarczyk from Investor Relations team.

We do have Head of Treasury and Finance on the call from our side, as well as Jacek Matyjasik and as well as Sławomir Radowicki, Head of Strategy of the group. As usual, we're going to discuss the presentation and supporting slides will come after.

We'll have Q&A session. We're ready to go.

OK. Sławomir, the floor is yours.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you, Kuba. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

It's my pleasure as ever to present ORLEN quarterly results. First quarter, as we all know, it was very, extremely challenging and unprecedented in the oil and gas industry.

I am very glad to say that we proved we have resilient business model and we can quickly adapt to very volatile market environment. Our key focus in March was to secure supply of crude oil and gas and ensure availability of the products, especially diesel, to our clients.

We are very proud that we did it. The situation the second quarter is still volatile and unpredictable.

It's really difficult to say whether this situation in the nearest future will normalize or we need to adapt to a kind of new normal situation. Although, we continue our strategic projects and on slide number two, we name a few of them.

In upstream, we continue discoveries, especially in Norway, to prevent production drop due to depletion of our deposits. We acquired two new LNG carriers, all together we have now eight carriers.

In downstream, as because we published the announcements, we finalized the scope of work, the schedule, and updated budget of new chemicals projects. We signed an agreement with general contractor to settle the past and now we are ready to continue these projects.

I can just confirm this is absolutely top priority for our company. This is the largest projects within our portfolio.

Still 3-4 years to go and almost 20 billion to be spent, definitely we are very glad that this is on track. However, this is absolutely of significant importance to our company.

The second is a preliminary agreement to acquire Grupa Azoty Polyolefins. I can just confirm that we await anti-monopoly approvals to conclude the transactions.

In the base case, it should happen in the third quarter this year. As regards Consumer & Products, the key challenge for us was increased prices of our products, but we have a very good non-fuel offer.

That's why we can implement promotions, 35 grosze promotion in Poland till the end of August. This is weekend promotion.

In Energy, we continue our offshore and gas-fired power plants projects and at the same time, our distribution network is modernized. We modernized and built new electricity grid over 1,000 kilometers and connected more than 200 megawatts of renewable energy.

From finance point of view, our situation is very stable and that was proved by Moody's that confirmed A3 rating with stable outlook and that's why, as Management Board, we are ready to propose the highest dividend in the history of ORLEN, which is 8 złoty per share. We await General Assembly approval of the final level and we are ready to pay dividend in June as we proposed in our recommendation.

Now, let's move to slide number three where we present key financial metrics. Revenue, 75.8, higher than the previous quarter due to the fact that we had higher sales volumes, as well, of course, higher prices of hydrocarbons and of our products.

EBITDA LIFO, I believe good results with better sales. However, we need to admit that this impact is due to better macro environment and better margins.

Cash flow from operations, good result, however lower than the past quarters and that was decreased by working capital and hedging deposits increases. As regards CAPEX, 5.4, usually the first quarter is the lowest one.

We booked a lot of invoices at the end of last year, so that's why it's just 5.4. However, we confirm our initial target we presented during the fourth quarter call, which is roughly 36 billion Polish złotys for the full year.

Net debt to EBITDA, we improved our cash position by 600 million within the first quarter of '26. Now, let's move to slide number four where we present our operational parameters and this slide, as is our key focus.

We are proud to say that our targets, operational targets, are being delivered. Starting from Upstream & Supply, there is slight drop in our hydrocarbon production, but this is normal depletion of our deposit and some planned and unplanned maintenance works.

However, I can confirm our target for the full year, which is the same level of production as '25. There was a cold winter in January and February in Poland, so that's why wholesale sales improved by 22%, which is a very good result.

We mentioned here LNG deliveries from U.S. This is really diversified sources of delivery gas.

As currently we have two contracts with Cheniere and Calcasieu Pass, roughly 4 billion cubic meters. In the fourth quarter, I can confirm that we expect to have the second contract with Venture Global from Plaquemines of 5.4 billion yearly cubic meters.

Of course, the full impact we can observe in '27. In '27, there is the last contract with Sempra of roughly 1.3 billion cubic meters.

As regards Downstream, better refining utilization capacity and crude oil throughput by 1 percentage point. This is mainly in Poland, 4% 4%, and slightly lower in Czech Republic and Lithuania.

As a result, wholesale fuel sales, petrochemical sales improved by 4%, 8% 8% respectively. Energy sector, definitely we took advantage of cold winter, so as you can see, electricity production 10% increase, heat production 11% increase, electricity distribution, natural gas distribution by 6% and 12% respectively.

We continue to have a more share of zero- and low-emission capacity. Currently, we have 64.3%, that's more than 4 percentage points increase as compared to last year.

Consumer & Products, we need to say that the consumption slightly drop on our markets. However, our retail fuel sales improved by 2% and additionally, efficiency of fuel style stations, meaning lowering breakeven margin, increased by 2%.

That's due to the fact that, of course, we keep costs under control, but at the same time, our offer, non-fuel offer is very, very attractive. As regards retail gas sale and electricity, similar situation to the energy, cold winter helped to achieve better volumes.

Now, let's move to slide number five where present our EBITDA delivery and that proves that our business model is very resilient and diversified. We delivered 14.1, which is 2.6 billion better result than last year.

Starting from upstream, the result is lower by 500 million. That's due to lower results in upstream of roughly 600 million due to the lower gas quotations, and higher supply results by 200 million due to increase in wholesale gas volumes and lower margins on gas sales, however with surplus offset by hedge and exchange rate effects.

In Downstream, improvement by 2.2 billion Polish złotys, similar results to the fourth quarter and that was first of all due to the refining improvement, 1.8 billion. Definitely, we took advantage of higher cracks and revaluation of our inventory, but that was partially limited by impact of hedges and strengthening of złoty against U.S.

dollars. Trade margins were lower, but that were fully offset by usage of historical inventory layers.

In Petrochemical, we are almost break even, we improved our results by 300 million. That's the result of increase in sales volumes by 200 million and positive impact of strengthening of euro against U.S.

dollar. Energy, 4.7 billion Polish złotys, that's 400 million improvement as compared to last year.

In conventional energy, that's 200 million mainly due to increase in production and sales of heat and electricity, whereas in distribution, that's 200 million increase in gas and electricity distribution volumes, however slightly offset by lower margins on gas distribution, electricity and increase in tariffs on gas transmission services and electricity. As regards Consumer & Products, 1.7 billion Polish złotys, 400 million improvement and that's 200 million in retail fuel and convenience, higher non-fuel margins and increase in sales volumes.

As regards the margins, fuel margins, those are comparable to last year, drop in Poland and higher in Germany, Czech Republic, and Austria. As regards retail electricity and gas, an improvement on 200 million and that's a result of increase in sales volumes and gas and electricity.

Now, let's move to slide number six where we present our CAPEX. We continue all our projects we described during our fourth quarter presentation.

On the right-hand side on this slide, we name all of them, I can just confirm that this is our focus and we continue to deliver those investment. As I said at the beginning, 5.4 is a kind of starting point, evenly spread across Upstream & Supply, Downstream, and Energy.

Now, let's move to slide number seven where we present our cash flow. EBITDA LIFO 14.1, then LIFO effect, and we have two quite significant items that decrease our cash flow from operation in the first quarter: working capital, 2.9 billion, of course due to more volumes and higher prices.

Of course, once this situation stabilizes, we may expect some form of reversal of this allocation. And 3.9 billion, this is valuation of our deposits and probably I should do a pause here because very rarely we discuss in detail the hedging, I would like to explain a little bit more what's happening in our company.

As you all know, we have very complex hedging policy. We hedge gas, crude oil, refining products, interest, CO2 certificates, foreign currency, and we explain our hedging positions in the notes to the financial statements, especially I advise you to look in detail into the note of full-year '25 where we explained in detail our position.

In the first quarter, there is a special note number 5.9 where you can observe what are the open position in our hedging policy. What I can add is that we use hedge accounting and there are transactions tried into the P&L.

March was very volatile, as we know, from that perspective, the forward curve changed. That's why we increase our deposit by 3.9 billion Polish złotys.

All together, if you look into our balance sheet, our deposits at the end of March is 4.2 billion Polish złotys. Those deposits are mainly on ICE, meaning Intercontinental Exchange, and in Polish commodity exchange as well.

Net position at the end of March is 1.7 billion liability and of course, we are not in a position to say what kind of development of the market will observe in the nearest quarter and what kind of hedging impact on our P&L is going to be. Definitely, our strategy is to flatten the volatility of the results.

There is a slide number 17 in our presentation in appendix where we present what is the impact on P&L, we may say that in the first quarter 2026, the net impact of our hedging is roughly zero, negative impact in Downstream, positive impact in Upstream. That's all I would like to say.

I believe that can be useful to explain this minus 3.9 cash allocation to our deposits. As a result, operating cash flow 8.5.

That was decreased by investment cash flow. As I presented on the previous slide, CAPEX was 5.4 and you can see here 7.5.

That's due to the fact that we booked a lot of invoices as regards investments in the fourth quarter, in the first quarter, 2.1 billion Polish złotys you may say that's payables payment from 2025. As a result, we improved our cash position by 600 million.

Let's move to slide number eight and that's the evidence of our strong balance sheet, a kind of liquidity position. We have diversified sources of financing.

We have average maturity of seven years. That currency structure is optimal, we believe, towards our operational exposure.

This is very good news and this situation, good financial situation helped us to propose the highest dividend, as I said, of 8 złoty per share. Now, let's move to slide number nine.

This is the final slide of my presentation, key initiatives for '26. I would like to just emphasize again that we have basically three areas of focus, which is growth, operational excellence, and financing.

From the growth perspective, definitely our investment program execution is priority with budget discipline, project management excellence, and this year we expect technical commissioning of Baltic Power offshore wind farm. We expect commissioning of CCGT Grudziądz and first fire in Ostrołęka.

As regards Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, I already said that we expect third quarter this year to get anti-monopoly approvals. Next year, we are going to just conclude the maintenance work and the completion of the factory and next year, we will include Grupa Azoty Polyolefins into our structure.

Operational excellence, again we prove that we are resilient. We prove I would not say that we are agile.

It's difficult to say that such a big corporation like ORLEN is very agile. However, we proved in March and April that our organization can react accordingly and speed is according to necessary situation, but this is definitely our focus building resilience and agility through operational excellence.

Secured and well-diversified supply of hydrocarbons, we proved that we have this policy in place. However, this is and will be our key focus for the next weeks and quarters.

Focus on maximizing asset utilization with plant maintenance shutdowns. I can just say that this quarter, second quarter of '26 is one of the highest kind of impacted by maintenance shutdowns.

We have this usual once 4-5 years turnaround in Płock refinery that affects refining and petrochemical part, but we started that. It's going, I believe, will be okay and will be concluded by the end of June, beginning of July.

From financing point of view, of course we focus on generation cash and keeping this optimal financing structure. We step-by-step issue new bonds to refinance our previous bonds and we focus on obtaining funds from national and European funds.

That's all from my side at this stage. We are ready to take your question to further explain our situation.

Thank you so much.

Jakub Frejlich

Thank you. As usually, we would like to ask you to raise your hand and we'll be kicking off with Łukasz Prokopiuk from BOS who was the first.

So, Łukasz, the floor is yours, please.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

Yes, hello. Can you hear me?

Jakub Frejlich

Yes.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

Okay. I have three questions.

First two short questions. What is your current share of Arabian crude in your consolidated throughputs?

Any additional comments would be very helpful here. The second one, I think you recognized a 752 million loss on crude oil trading and why such a big loss given that the Arabian crude was expensive only in April, became expensive.

Could you explain this item? The last question, maybe I'll ask it after the first two.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you, Łukasz. Saudi Aramco is always roughly between 40% and 45%, so that remained and that's at that kind of levels.

This crude trading, I would not say this is a loss. What we present is basically that we pay higher for the crude, so that means that differential is on top of that.

That what can I say?

Łukasz Prokopiuk

The thing is that I think your differential was positive in the first quarter and yet you recognized higher losses.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Which amount do you refer to? Because you said seven seven

Łukasz Prokopiuk

In your Excel file, if I read correctly, I would need to find it now, but I think you recognized 752 minus EBITDA, yes, on crude oil trading, Sławomir Jędrzejczyk (CFO):

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

If you allow me just to look into this Excel and we'll explain offline, okay? I don't have this amount in mind, actually.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

I see it now in your Excel. It's exactly the amount.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

I will just double check because it may be impacted by hedging as well, but I don't want to mislead you at this stage. If we can take this question offline.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

Okay? No problem.

Okay. Last question, a big question, general question on petchem.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Yes.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

On the current macro, is it a one-off? Is it sustainable?

Could you comment on fertilizers and especially in the context of the upgrade in Anwil? Could you comment on Novachem on the expected EBITDA margins and maybe asset impairments in the context of the improvement in macro?

Could you comment on Azoty Polyolefins in the context of improving petchem macro? Big question, but thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

I know. Thank you very much.

I can just say that really we did a big bet on petchem. That's true, because we continue new chemicals projects, but this is going to be due 2030, within the next four years, let's say.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

Then

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

we expect to conclude GAP, which is going to be in operation within one year and a half probably after we complete all the necessary works. Then we have Azoty upgrade, which started actually in April.

What can I say? Of course, I can say that it's too early to predict a kind of long-term view.

However, this is a positive information for us. If the situation develops that will be better than everyone expected a few months ago.

However, this is too early to say. We did not upgrade our kind of long-term forecast.

Probably during our update of strategy, we look into the macro environment long run and then we will present our focus. As higher prices affect consumption as well.

There are definitely very good margins in petchem currently. However, I believe the market need to adapt to the higher prices.

We observed of course pressure on volumes because the clients want to wait a little bit and see whether normalization is going to happen. Of course, they cannot wait forever.

They can utilize inventories they have and one day we believe the volumes will come back in the previous levels. It's difficult to expect when.

I know that this is a kind of very general answer, but at this stage, I would not kind of draw long-term conclusions. That's positive for us.

However, let's wait a few more months how the situation develops.

Łukasz Prokopiuk

Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

Thank you, Łukasz. The next in line is Piotr Dzięciołowski from Citi.

Please, Piotr.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

You are muted. Yes, it's Piotr Dzięciołowski from Citi.

Can you hear me now?

Jakub Frejlich

Yes.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Yes, hi. Good morning, everybody.

I also will have three questions. I wanted to ask you about this windfall profit tax.

What is your estimate about the number? Is it going to be 6 billion?

What assumptions you have to use to get to 6 billion? A color of how you see the run rate of this windfall tax being applied to a March, April, and May at the current margins.

That's the first question. Maybe you can say what's the reference this margin that they talk about?

It is 20% uplifted margin from the last year. Any details will be helpful.

Second, I wanted to clarify on the dividend. You propose 8 złoty per share.

Is it fair to assume this is a progressive dividend, a dividend proposed from a '26 and '27 profits will be 8 złoty plus, or you see a normalization or decline of a dividend? What's the trajectory going forward?

Finally, I wanted to ask about Energa. You're raising capital at Energa.

What is going to be your share in the overall capital following the capital increase? Do you see a squeeze-out of the minorities there?

Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you so much. As regards windfall, I can only say that we expect the draft act, which which supposed to be to be announced soon, and we'll look carefully into this.

Draft act does not mean that this is going to be to be the final version, our position as a company is to wait for the final version, which is going to be approved by by by the government, and then we will recalculate and say to the market our estimations of the impact. Sorry for that, but we try not to comment any initial estimations.

As regards dividend, of course we have dividend policy in place, which is 25% of up to 25% on cash flow from operations decreased by interest. My position.

I believe we should be dividend-paying company, we should focus on cash generation, and once we generate cash, of course we should pay adequate dividend, having in mind we have investment program in place. Again, sorry for this, but I'm not in a position to tell you whether next year you should expect more than 8 złotys, but definitely our capital structure, as we know, is not optimal.

We have cash position currently, so I would expect dividend is key priority, but what kind of level, let's wait till the end, I mean till the beginning of next year. As regards Energa, yes, that's true, we decided as a majority shareholders to just inflow some capital to improve the structure of of the company so that Energa can continue investment programs.

The share the we expect 1st of June is the conclusions the conclusion of of all the shareholders to to announce what kind of shares they are going to acquire, at the beginning of June, we should know kind of what kind of percentage we we will have. As sorry for this again, this is stock-listed company, we are stock-listed company, we will announce our our next steps, if any, in due course.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Can I ask you a short follow-up on this Energa? What is the book value of Energa capital on your books like?

Given I heard there were some recent changes on the law on the squeeze-out that essentially the minorities can now expect a fair value being offered, I just wanted to compare where is the share price versus your book value, and whether you'd be afraid that there's a endless litigation against you that you're not willing to pay the fair value. The book value is probably the fair assumption of what you think of this company is worth, no?

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

We have two numbers which are officially published, as we know. Last year, we just announced readiness to acquire shares at the price of 18.87, as far as I remember.

Then now there is a share capital increase of 18 plus as well, those are two numbers which are roughly 18 złoty plus. We will double check what's the book value in our company.

This is I guess lower because we acquired that, as in the past years. Again, sorry, I'm not going to follow up this answer as regards if any, strategy regarding our next steps.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Sure. Thank you very much.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

We'll revert back to you on those questions offline straight after the call. Now, we can move on to Anna Kishmariya from UBS.

Please, Anna.

Anna Kishmariya

Good day, hopefully you can hear me. Thank you very much for the presentation.

A couple of questions from my side. Starting with the utilization rates, as you mentioned, the second quarter is heavy on the maintenance side.

What level of group utilization we should expect on the refining assets? Also, on the crude availability, do you experience any issues to secure that, or is it fully available?

I will come up with some more questions after this one.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you so much. As regards utilization, we expect slight drop in utilization rate, roughly 90%, similar levels as the first quarters.

As regards crude availability, as I said at the beginning of the presentation, we are very proud that we have diversified sources of financing. We have Saudi Arabian, we have crude from Norway, from all different sources.

Currently, we don't see any issues regarding delivery crude. Of course, this is always question of price and the premium we need to pay, but then we will kind of present during our quarterly results what net impact of that market situation is on our results.

Definitely, we don't have any crude problems so far.

Anna Kishmariya

Thank you very much. Regarding the new chemicals project, after the finalization of the budget and the project further moving ahead, do you expect to stop impairments, this quarterly impairments of the CAPEX, or should we expect it to follow?

My final question will be around the Polish gas tariffs prices for July when there will be an update. Do you expect the tariffs to still go down despite the current market environment?

Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you. As regards chemicals projects, I did not mention during the presentation, in the first quarter, we booked 1.1 impairments out of which basically 1 billion is new chemical project, so that's something we announced in the previous quarters.

For the next quarters to come, I would expect that impairments will be still in place. Our budget for new chemicals this year is roughly 6 billion Polish złotys, I would expect that this year, still the whole amount will be impaired.

What happens in the next quarter, we will see if there is any update of our strategy, if there is any update referring to Łukasz's question on the macro assumptions, of course we will announce when we are ready. For the time being, the base case, I would expect that the whole amount '26 will be still impaired.

As regards Polish gas prices, that's true that we expect kind of not new tariffs in place, but again we expect once we see the new tariffs, of course we can comment. It's difficult for us to say at this stage what kind of levels we can expect.

Anna Kishmariya

Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

Thank you, Anna. We can now move on to Tomasz Krukowski from Erste for the first time.

Tomasz, please.

​Tomasz Krukowski

Hi, Tomasz Krukowski, Erste. Just one question.

What is the cost of the crude which you source at this moment? I'm just wondering what kind of premium on average should we expect you to pay in the second quarter.

We know what the Arab Light is trading at, but well, we do not know how effective you are in also switching or sourcing the other crudes and what the price are you paying.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you so much. Of course, as regards crude, that maybe worth commenting as well that March was positive because, of course, we signed the crude in one or two months ahead.

In the second quarter, we will see this increase of premiums on crude oil. I would expect that it's still single-digit number, closer probably to 10.

However, I would not expect double-digit premium as an average for the second quarter because still April was there were quotations from February, let's say, and then May and June will be impacted by this higher premium, on average, if you estimate single digit closer to 10 would be base-case rough assumption.

​Tomasz Krukowski

Thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

Thank you. Piotr, you had a follow-up?

I can see

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Yes. I put myself into line given there's nobody else in the queue.

Jakub Frejlich

I have

Piotr Dzięciołowski

three follow-ups, if I may. How do you think about the margins on the Henry Hub TTF and your LNG portfolio for next year?

To what extent you are able to hedge this margins, do you see a material upside into your numbers because of this factor and what's your ability to lock it in? Second, didn't you say you were talking about on previous calls about the possible strategy update and directionally how you think about the CAPEX figures going forward?

We had a kind of mid-30s billion level annually. I just wanted to understand how you think about this potential to spend CAPEX and your investment opportunities till the end of the decade.

This would be my two follow-ups.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you. As regards Henry Hub and TTF, this is a key item in our hedging policy and if you I said that we have this net position, which is 1.8 liability.

Majority of that is basically hedging of U.S. exposure.

According to our hedging policy, of course we start from 100% hedge position in the nearest term and over the course of time, of course 100% drops. And '27, I can say we have a lot of hedges implemented, I would not see in '27 very significant kind of positive impact of the situation.

We continue to hedge, definitely I would look into the hedges policy as a flattening of the volatility. We are utilizing those curves which are currently in place to hedge longer terms, if possible.

I would look into our hedging policy as a kind of ongoing structural approach. We don't want to speculate here to take any opportunity and to generate extra results.

This is a consistent hedging policy. Once the prices are not going in the favorable direction, we will have negative impact and vice versa, of course.

If we manage to hedge with current curves our position for the next years to come, you will see positive impact despite the fact that the margin TTF Henry Hub is going to a kind of shorten. That's it.

As regards strategy update, of course we wait for the right momentum. We all probably agree that this is definitely so volatile market that going with an update of strategy is definitely too early.

We need to have comfort as regards macro assumptions for the next few years. At this stage, we target fourth quarter probably this year.

However, we will see how the market develops. I would not expect any significant changes in the strategy.

This is just a question of focus and priorities. Maybe slight changes in the priorities you may expect.

I'm not in a position again. Sorry, Piotr, for that.

I'm just answering all your questions that I cannot answer because really this is a kind of, once, from one perspective, this is confidential, but from the second perspective, we are not ready at this stage to say definitely what kind of levels we will set, put in our strategy. However, I can just refer what I always repeat.

We should be cash generated company, we look into our cash flow from operations and then we should split this cash flow from operations among CAPEX and among dividend and we will try to find a kind of the right balance among two factors.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Sure. If I may just slightly, because you say there's a slight amendment to your direction of travel, which I kind of disagree it's a slight amendment.

The company was promising 80 billion in M&A, the company was promising 80 or tens of billions in renewables. We are a year and a half into the strategy, none of it has materialized.

The CAPEX was meant to be in the range of 50s, is in the range of 30s. I wouldn't call it a slight amendment.

What I'm trying to understand is what you present is a materially different vision of what was presented in the strategy. That's why I ask these questions.

In a sense, trying to get whether you should look at it a cash flow positive company paying dividend, your vision, versus the one we take the document from a January last year is a very different vision of the company. Would you agree with this assessment?

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Not exactly, because in the strategy, M&A was put as a kind of option. What I'm saying, I'm referring to the base CAPEX, which is a kind of organic CAPEX.

As regards M&A, that's always the same story from our side. If there is any opportunity from the M&A perspective, meaning, for example, upstream, of course we will look at that and if our position, cash position allows us to go into M&A, of course we will look at that.

From organic CAPEX, basically if you look at our kind of ongoing projects, majority of this project for the next three years, our CAPEX is basically set because if you look into our offshore projects, which are the biggest ones, if you look into new chemical, then we have GAP, then we have all other projects in refining, meaning HVO, bottom of the barrel, like Kętrzyn, Olej Dlicze, a lot of projects in the pipeline, CCGT in energy sector, as you know. If you count all of that, so that's my statement that from that perspective, if you look segment by segments, I don't see any significant changes in our strategy.

Of course, as regards the amounts and priorities, they may a little bit change. From the organic point of view, and definitely what I usually say, there is this maintenance CAPEX that should be optimized.

My view is that we should focus on CAPEX from the rationalization point of view. From that perspective, you may expect kind of drop as compared to the kind of our strategic numbers.

However, please bear in mind this M&A and compare apple with apple.

Piotr Dzięciołowski

Okay. Thank you very much.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Yes, thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

It does seem that we oh, Ricardo made it before I close. Ricardo, please.

Morgan Stanley. We can't hear you.

Ricardo Rezende

Hello. Good morning.

Can you hear me?

Jakub Frejlich

Yeah.

Ricardo Rezende

Perfect. I just like to have a follow-up on the last question about M&A.

When we look at the expected production curve for upstream from this strategy update, there was this optional component or some flexibility embedded through to M&A in North Sea, in North America as well. Would you mind just commenting on what you're seeing in potential opportunities in there?

Is it something that compared to with the original expectations from the strategy update, is more of a matter of pricing or not really finding the sort of assets that you're looking for at the time, or and how should we really think about the upstream production curve in the coming years? Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you so much. As we know, our presence in upstream is in Poland, Norway, and Canada at the moment, partially in Pakistan, a little bit Libya as well, but those are minor stakes.

There is definitely depletion of our deposits, so that's why we allocate roughly up to 8 billion, 7-8 billion yearly just for maintenance, for new discoveries, to keep the production going and with slight increases. Of course, in our strategic targets, you saw a kind of increase in our production.

However, this is not so easy to do with organic CAPEX, so that's why we are talking about M&A and usually it's good to have like two-three legs. One is Norway, one is, of course, North America.

We are observing this market. Of course, the current macro environment leads us to the question at what kind of crude oil price or gas price valuation should take place, we are not that eager to do this immediately.

I'm just saying that that's the optionality and this is something we are looking at. Definitely through organic CAPEX, looking into our deposits, it's difficult to expect that the production will increase significantly.

However, we try to at least not to have decrease in this production. I hope that helps a little bit.

Ricardo Rezende

That was very clear. Thank you.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you.

Jakub Frejlich

Alright. It does seem that we managed to answer your questions, at least in some way, and we'll revert back to you with details for those questions we didn't focus in a full detail.

By saying that, I would be going to conclude the meeting if there's no final questions. Thank you very much for participation.

Thank you very much for your time. We'll be seeing on the road on the meetings.

If not earlier, we'll see on the Q2 results view in beginning of August. Thank you very much for your attention and participation today.

Sławomir Jędrzejczyk

Thank you so much. All the best.

Thank you.