Brdr A & O Johansen A/S Class B

Brdr A & O Johansen A/S Class B

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 26, 2026

Operator

Welcome to Brødrene A & O Johansen's Q4 and full-year 2025 annual report presentation. Today's call is being recorded.

If you have any objections to this, please disconnect your line. All participants will be in a listen-only mode throughout the presentation, and afterwards, there will be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question, please press 5 star on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the call over to CEO, Niels A.

Johansen. Please begin.

Niels A. Johansen

Good afternoon, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full-year '25 webcast. Let me start by concluding that our revenues and results were in line with the latest guidance.

Revenue ended at 6 billion 121 1 million against the guided 6.0 to 6.1 billion, thus slightly above guidance. EBITDA came in at 434 million against the guided 420 to 440 million, and EBT came in at 260 million against the guided 245 to 265 million.

Let us look at some of the highlights of the fourth quarter. Q4 sales slightly exceeded expectations.

AO saw the highest quarterly activity ever. Sales came in at almost 1.7 billion.

This is almost 8% higher than last year. We saw organic growth in both B2B and B2C, confirming the value of our omnichannel business model.

We are satisfied to observe that the number of customers in our stores has never been higher. The average number of daily customers in '25 has been 9,300, which is 6% higher than last year.

We had a satisfying Black Week, and our 24 webshops performed according to their well-orchestrated campaign plans. Gross margins appreciated in both segments.

I'm particularly satisfied to conclude that gross margins have increased in both B2B and B2C. The pressure on margins has been intense during '25.

Rising margins in this atmosphere is not a trivial exercise. Many initiatives to optimize margins and distributions have proved valuable.

AO holds a strong position in modernization and maintenance. Our focus on expanding the assortment in our stores is a key element in making AO the preferred place to do the daily business.

The B2C segment has a step change in '25. B2C sales have crossed 1 billion mark in '25, and gross margins increased by more than 3 percentage points to 33%, and the EBITDA segment margin climbed to 11.6%.

Acquisitions did well in '25. Workwear Group, VVS Expert, and Svenska VA grossisten all had a busy '25.

The combined revenues increased by 23% compared to full-year numbers for '24, and the earnings increased by 85%. On top of upbeat performance, the acquisition of Svenska VA grossisten also proved to be an enabler to set up greenfield sites in the Stockholm region.

Three new sites were established in '25. The acquisition in '24 have further confirmed to us that the way to future expansion and growth will be a combination of organic growth and M&A steps.

We propose a dividend of just above 50% of the net results. At our general assembly in March, AO will propose a dividend of 3.75 Danish krone per share, adding up to some 52% of the net result.

Last year, the dividend was 3 Danish krone per share. It's the fifth year in a row that dividend will be 50% or more of the net results.

Let us look at the management's observations. Project margins are under pressure.

Battle on the marketplace, especially within projects. Competition is fierce, and customers are pushing the rebate dialogue intensively.

In AO, we stay selective to not take orders with an unsatisfactory margin, but it is still our aim to grow our share also within projects. Increased project activity is likely to have a negative impact on margins.

We remain positive about the longer-term outlook. As our customers foresee steady interest rates, we expect to see higher activity level within projects and, hopefully, a '26 with slightly improved activity in general.

We believe that the pressure will ease gradually during the coming years. However, we don't expect any margin miracles in the short term.

AO invest on top of cost inflation. We expect cost and salary inflation to be around 3%.

On top of this, you should expect the cost burden to be impacted from the full year's impact of new initiatives during '25. Furthermore, you should expect AO to remain willing to invest in new growth activities, as well as to spend the amount needed to ensure that IT, digitalization, warehouses, and our competencies are meeting the requirement of tomorrow.

As long as we are onboarding competencies and increasing investments to address the increase in regulatory burdens, we will see a higher cost of doing business ratio than we ideally want. AO is tying up more cash as working capital.

Net working capital amounts to 7.6% of revenues against 7.1% last year, and a few years back, below 6%. The increase is despite the many cash-paying customers in the growing B2C segment.

This increase is due partly to AO behavior, since a broader assortment calls for larger inventories, and partly to customer behavior, where especially the consolidation amongst customers comes with increased focus on credit negotiations. Given the challenging business dynamics, we are satisfied with the earnings level in '25.

However, the level of earnings did not meet our longer-term earning ambitions. To meet our ambitions, AO will need to continue our journey with profitable growth and a high efficiency.

This will also take some help from the business climate: increased demand, increased basket sizes, and less new regulations would surely be welcome. Now, Per, please take us through the financial performance.

Per Toelstang

Thank you, Niels. Let's hit the financials.

Q4 sales showed an organic growth of 7.9% and continued the strong organic growth throughout the year. As Niels said, highest quarter ever.

Growth during first half of the year was heavily fueled by sales from acquired companies, while the growth in second half of the year has been almost exclusively organic. Happy to note, as Niels said, that margins appreciated both in the quarter and full year.

Cost of doing business increased in Q4 due to add-on investments related to new activities in both Denmark and Sweden. EBITDA came in at 149 million against 123 million in Q4 last year.

The EBITDA margin was 8.9% against 7.9% in Q4 last year. As usual, the EBITDA margin was higher during Q4 than for the full year.

This is due to scale from the higher sales and an over-proportional B2C sales in this quarter. EBT ended at 106 million against 80 million last year, and earnings were as expected.

Let's turn to the full-year performance. Sales came in at almost 700 million higher than 2024, driven by organic growth of 8.4% and acquisition impact of 4.3%.

After years with a declining margin trend, the gross margin for 2025 appreciated from 23.3% to 24.3%. Positive impact from the higher B2C margins had a significant impact, but happy to note that B2B margins increased as well.

Salaries and external cost increased by 17%. Most of the increase came from the full-year impact from acquired companies.

EBITDA of 434 million and EBT of 260 million were both as expected. Now, let's turn to margins.

As I said, margins improved from 23.3% to 24.3%. 0.5 percentage points was due to the acquisition impact, especially within B2C sales, and 0.3 percentage point from the fact that B2C accounted for a larger part of sales.

B2B margin increased 0.3% from higher sales of tooling, brackets, and workwear, whilst project margins depreciated compared to last year. B2C shares of sales ended close to 18% in 2025.

Let's leave the margins and turn to the segment info. The B2B segment accounted for 82% of full-year revenues, and the B2C segment accounted for 18%.

For the first time ever, B2B broke the 5 billion mark, and B2C broke the 1 billion mark. Both segment increased margins, especially in B2C, where margins appreciated and showed an impressive 11% additional margin compared to B2B.

The increased scale in the B2C segment resulted in a significantly improved 11.6% EBITDA margin, and we are satisfied to conclude that both segments have posted above 11% segment EBITDA margins. Indirect non-allocated cost amounted to 4.3% of revenue, which was at par with last year.

Let's turn to the investments. Please be aware that the chart does not include M&A investments.

The highlighted band shows the normal level of maintenance investments in AO. The investments in 2025 amounted to 200 million DKK, which was as expected.

Digital investments account for 1/3 of the investments, while more than 1/3 related to investments in the central warehouse to expand capacity and efficiency. For the past years, a large part of the investments has been investments related to the significant growth.

We expect this to continue in 2026. Let's look at the cash flow and the debt.

Cash flow from operations amounted to 5.1 percentage point of revenue, up from 3.7% of revenue last year. As Niels said, working capital at year-end was 7.6% of revenue against 7.1% last year.

Increased assortment and increased credit demand from customers challenged the net working capital management. AO had large investments of 200 million in 2025, and the net interest-bearing debt ended at 1 billion and 49 million, which is 56 million above last year.

The interest-bearing debt over EBITDA amounted to 2.4 compared to 2.7 times last year. Turn to guidance for 2026.

We expect sales to increase by 5% to 8%. Our assumptions behind are a market growth of approximately 1% to 3%, 1% from new business acquired 1st of January, and the remaining 3% to 4% growth from AO utilizing our momentum and win market share.

We expect an EBITDA in the range of 460 to 500 million, up from 434 million in '25, and we expect an EBT in the range of 260 to 300 million, up from 260 million in '25. Earnings are impacted from the following: on top of salary and cost inflations, AO estimate additional cost of approximately 25 million related to full-year impact from activities in '25 and scaling up new investments and activities in '26.

SG&A is therefore expected to increase approximately 5% to 6% in 2026. EBT is expected to be negatively impacted by 25 million in additional depreciations in '26 compared to '25.

Let's turn to how we bridge EBITDA from '25 to the mid outlook '26. We expect a market growth of 5% to 8%.

The revenue impact is estimated to bring another 92 million to EBITDA. Margins are estimated to be a notch higher than '25 in 2026, which is expected to bring 12 million to EBITDA.

Salary and cost inflation of 3% will reduce EBITDA by 32 million, and additional 25 million cost increase is expected, as I said before, related to the full-year impact from '25 initiatives and new initiatives in '26. This leaves us with a mid-guidance EBITDA of 480 million, which represents an increase of 46 million compared to '25 and an EBITDA margin of approximately 7.4%.

As I said, EBT will be negatively impacted from additional 25 million in depreciations. Finally, I want to add that activity in Q1 until now has been lower than expected due to the climate, especially in February.

We do expect that this will impact Q1, but for now, we do not expect that this will impact our full-year guidance. This concludes the presentation, and we are ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you do wish to ask a question, please press 5 star on your telephone keypad.

To withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing 5 star again. The first question is from the line of Christian Tørner from SEB.

Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Christian Tørner

Yes, thank you. A couple of questions from my side.

First one, the implementation of workwear sales into your B2B channel, can you give us an update on where you are and I guess also sort of your assumptions for 2026 on this?

Per Toelstang

Hi, Christian. As you heard from the presentation, AO Workwear had a pretty good year.

We don't disclose the sale of separate category groups, but we do estimate that workwear in B2B shall grow double-digit in 2026. I think this is as much as I can disclose for now.

Christian Tørner

Okay. I was not expecting you to give me numbers here, but my thinking was just as much to get a sense of whether you're satisfied with the sales in your B2B channel.

Per Toelstang

Yes, sure. We are extremely happy about the performance from Workwear overall, also happy about the uptake from B2B customers.

It takes time, Christian, and I believe that we have discussed it earlier, it's not a one-month fix. It takes time to change habits, but customers are learning the broad assortment that we are able to bring to them, and new sales are kicking in week by week.

It's not a short journey, but it will be a good journey for us.

Christian Tørner

Great. Then also on the acquisition of the VVS Eksperten domain, I guess you are almost two months in now, just curious on a few comments on how that has started out.

Per Toelstang

It has been a promising start. We are actually slightly ahead of own plans.

These are again plans that I don't disclose, but we are happy with the first two months in VVS Eksperten.

Christian Tørner

Okay. Sounds good.

Then just focusing a bit on some of the numbers. You've touched upon gross margins several occasions highlighting the pressure in the project segment.

Your assumptions here going forward, is that for the project segment to continue to be under pressure on the gross margin level? Can you mitigate by improvement in any of the other segments?

Per Toelstang

We do expect project is an area where we want to increase share. We also, as we said in the presentation, remain selective in the current trading.

We see a somewhat unchanged picture during 2026. In our opinion, the pressure will stay as tough as it is for now, and as it has been in 2025.

Where can we compensate? B2C brings quite strong margins, growing in B2C is benefiting the group margins for sure.

Pushing sales of higher-margin articles like tooling, workwear, brackets is good for us. Basically, it's also good for the customer.

Everything under one roof is good for us, and it saves time and create a more efficient day for our customers. Gradually going from focusing on selling SKUs to selling solution sales is also a win-win.

It will benefit customers. They will save time, they will save troubles.

For us, we also recognize and appreciate that the customers are probably valuing a solution slightly differently than when they just pressure prices on the SKU. That is also good for margins.

Makes sense.

Christian Tørner

If we move to SG&A cost, I appreciate your very detailed guidance here. Just sort of digging into the B2C segment where we now have clean numbers, or organic development is probably the right word.

In Q4, direct expenses are up 14% year-on-year in B2C. Can you elaborate why the growth in cost is so high in the quarter?

Per Toelstang

I'm missing a few nuances, but if you look at the B2C SG&A P&L, it consists of salaries and Google. The Google is almost you could say a same size of sales no matter what you sell.

It's basically higher Google and marketing cost.

Christian Tørner

Makes sense. Then just a clarification, you highlighted that you had an investment level around 200 million in '25.

Is that the similar level we should expect for '26 then?

Per Toelstang

Yes, it's not part of our guidance, but you should expect roughly the same number. Again, it will be much higher than our maintenance CapEx due to us investing in increasing capacity and efficiency at the warehouse, and we also expect high investments within software, digitalization in 2026.

A bit less with regards to the stores. Approximately 200 million again, Christian.

Christian Tørner

Okay. Then my last question.

As you clearly highlighted, your recent acquisitions have been quite successful, it seems. I was just curious whether you have appetite for more, and when?

Per Toelstang

You should expect us to be actively monitoring the market for targets that would fit into our strategy and that would benefit the everything under one roof strategy. You will be among the first to know when things happen, but you should expect us to be actively monitoring.

Christian Tørner

Understood. Excellent.

That was all for me. Thank you very much.

Per Toelstang

Christian.

Operator

Let me just remind you, if you do wish to ask a question on the telephone, please press 5 star on your telephone keypad. In the meantime, let's go back and hear if there are any written questions.

Please go ahead.

Per Toelstang

Yes, we have had a number of questions. First one: You have previously stated on several occasions that the maintenance investment level is approximately 60 to 90 annually.

However, this level has not been observed since 2020. What should we expect in terms of investment level for 2026?

I think I have answered that already, but you are right that we have been significantly above the maintenance investments during the past years. We have also been been growing quite a bit during these five years.

Then we have another question: Is current net working capital as percentage of sales a new normal, or should one expect lower levels going forward? I touched upon the the strategy under one roof.

This will mean a broader assortment in order for our customers to be able to to finalize their their needs when they are visiting AO. A broader assortment would be a higher tied-up capital at inventories.

We should not expect cash tied up at accounts receivables to lower. I think that this is in the new normal.

Obviously, from a B2C point of view, we are happy to note that that this business consists of cash-paying customers. If we if we manage to grow faster in B2C than in B2B, then this will have a beneficial impact in in working capital.

I think you should expect this to be a a new normal. Then we have another question: Despite the current geopolitical instability, you expect to grow at least 2 percentage points above market growth.

What gives you the confidence that you can and will outperform the market under these conditions? It's it's a good and a relevant question.

In one in one aspect, we are not that impacted by the geopolitical instability. We source most of our articles from stable countries within within Europe, and we sell 99% plus in Scandinavia.

From that aspect, we are kind of a you could almost say a safe harbor. Now, when when you have uncertainty that may impact people's appetite for making larger investments, and that's the tricky one, obviously.

We feel that we are in a good place to grab the growth opportunities. We have hired people in during times where many in our line of business has said goodbye to good competencies.

We have hired additional competencies. We feel that we are in a good place to grab growth opportunities.

Hope not to disappoint you there. Higher level of depreciations, I am asked.

Should we expect that there will be a new higher, as guided, within plus 25 in 20 additional 25 million in '26? Could you elaborate on progress in Sweden, more locations in 2026?

In '25, you also had extraordinary update on IT competencies. Should we expect similar in 2027?

Three questions. If you look at the depreciations, you are right.

The depreciations was 120 million in 2024. It was 140 million in 2025.

We expect it to be 165 million in 2026. The short answer to why it's increasing is obviously that the yearly investments during the past five years has been significantly higher than the yearly depreciations.

The more detailed answer is that an increased part of our investments have a shorter economic lifetime, such as software, which we depreciate on a 3 to 5 years period. As you heard from our presentation, the investments in software and our digital investments are increasing.

They will be increasing going forward also. In fact, I dare to say that if we were not increasing our IT cost, I would be a bit worried.

This is an essential area for us in order to stay ready for the future. Then you ask about Sweden.

Yes, you are right that we we opened three new sites in 2026. We will open in Falkenberg in a couple of months, and it's probably not the last site in 2026.

We don't have any new sites planned in detail, but we have appetite for more for more sites, especially in the Stockholm greater area. Are further acquisitions in Denmark and the Nordic region a part of your plans for 2026?

In the longer run, I think you should expect us to gradually become a more Scandinavian player. I believe that I answered that question earlier when Christian asked, but you should expect us to be actively monitoring the the options out and the opportunities out there, both within B2C and B2B, and both within Denmark and in Sweden.

How much are you affected by the general economic climate in Denmark, given the weak development from major employers like Novo Nordisk, etc.? Do you see this affecting you, particularly in relation to the slow growth you commented on in February?

Of course, we are we are affected by the economic climate. The maintenance, as you might know, approximately 70% of our business is maintenance business.

One of the characteristics about maintenance business is that we are less affected by the general economic climate. Then 30% is within projects, and projects are more impacted or affected by climate or by by general economic changes.

We we don't we don't expect us to be overly impacted by the by the changes in economic climate, and I I don't even think that it's Well, I think what what we hear is both pluses and minuses when it comes to economic climate. Actually, most households in Denmark are in a pretty good situation, it seems.

We we had a bit of tax reliefs beginning of 2026, not much, but but it matters, and we appreciate the the the larger disposable incomes, because some of it will go our way, we hope. I think the the answer is that we are not that affected.

Then we had a question about: AI internal investments and savings? You are absolutely right that AI investments are indeed our priority.

We are working hard with AI implementations as we speak. It will probably lead to savings.

I'm I'm pretty sure it will lead to savings, but actually we are as we are as eager to make AI bringing us or bringing us in a situation where we can add add value to our to our customers. AI investments will will will be part of the larger investments in in 2026.

Also savings, hardly in '26, I think, but but probably on the longer run. If we say savings, it's probably not It's probably not cost cutting.

We are a growth company, what I expect is that AI AI can can give us a leverage to serve a much larger revenue with somewhat the same cost base. When do you expect a more normal year in terms of cost and margins, where we can see the scalability on previous year's investments?

I If you by that question means when I am foreseeing more normal growth, then I hope that will be in many years from because we we hope to to to grow in the in the coming years, and I'm sure that that will take further investments in our cost base also. For now, I don't think we have more questions.

I think we will close the presentation for today. Thank you for participating.

Thank you for putting very relevant tables or or questions on the table. Looking forward to see you during the Q1 webcast 1st of May.

Thank you. Bye.