ProCredit Holding AG

ProCredit Holding AG

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Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptMarch 19, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the full year 2025 results conference call. I'm Sergen, the Chorus Call operator.

I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The replay of the conference will be published on the ProCredit Holding website in the Investor Relations section.

The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and 1 on your telephone.

For operator assistance, please press star and 0. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Eriola Bibolli. Please go ahead.

Eriola Bibolli

Good afternoon from Frankfurt, and welcome to our call to discuss ProCredit Group's results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. My name is Eriola Bibolli, and since the beginning of this month, I'm the Chair of the Management Board of ProCredit Holding.

This is the first time I'm speaking in this setting, and I want to take the opportunity to introduce myself. I joined the group more than 20 years ago, and in many ways, my entire professional life has been shaped by ProCredit.

Over these two decades, I have had the privilege of witnessing firsthand the very important role our group has played in the development of the countries we operate. Since its inception, our group has been dedicated to building strong, transparent, and well-governing banking institutions in countries and markets that were, in many cases, still in transition.

In Kosovo, where I worked for two decades, ProCredit Bank played an instrumental role in the reconstruction of the country, laying the foundations of the financial system architecture that was being established, as well as to supporting largely the economic and private sector development through dedicated commitment to SMEs at a time when the country had begun to rebuild its institutions and economic foundations. ProCredit Bank in Kosovo has consistently promoted transparency, responsibility, robust corporate governance, helping to build trust among clients, regulators, and international investors, values that were not common in the market at the time.

Equally important has been the group's longstanding investment in people. Through extensive trainings and a strong institutional identity and culture, over the years, thousands of finance professionals have grown and developed within the ProCredit environment.

Today, many of them continue to shape financial systems across our markets by holding leading positions in financial institutions, international organizations, and government entities. Taken together, the group's impact in our markets extends beyond banking.

It has contributed to institutional building, to sustainable economic development, and helped lay the foundations for more professional, more stable, and more inclusive financial markets in the region. To have been part of that journey, it has been both inspiring and deeply rewarding.

It is now a privilege to take on this role at a time when the group is entering the next stage of its development. Joining me today is Christian Dagrosa, our Chief Financial Officer, who I'm sure does not need an introduction.

We expect today's presentation to take slightly longer than usual as we'll provide a more detailed update on the execution of our business strategy, a journey that began two years ago. The slide deck accompanying our discourse today has been made available on our website.

After our presentation, as usual, we will allow sufficient time for questions. Before we begin, let me also draw your attention to the customary disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements, which is included at the end of the presentation.

Let me briefly walk you through today's agenda. I will start by outlining the key developments in 2025 and where we stand today in the execution of our strategic roadmap.

Over the past year, we have made strong operational progress while advancing our strategic transition, and we'll provide some context around both. Christian will then take you through the group's financial results in greater detail, including the key drivers behind our performance in 2025.

Finally, I will come back to the group's outlook, both short- and medium-term, and share some broader context on the opportunities ahead. 2025 has been a year in which our strategy has firmly moved into execution mode.

Loan and deposit growth was strong at around 13% without currency effects, driven primarily by the continued expansion of our core customer segments. This reflects both strong demand in our markets and the strengthening of our position with SMEs, microenterprises, and increasingly retail banking clients.

2025 showed a particularly encouraging progress in terms of the structure of growth, with more than 60% of new deposits coming from sight and savings deposits compared to the previous year. We are now beginning to deliver on the greater granularity in our funding structure, which will support stronger net margins over time.

From a financial perspective, our results are in line with the updated guidance we communicated in Q4 last year. Return on equity is 7.8%, within the expected range of around 7% to 8%, but below our initial outlook for the year.

Christian will cover the details, but the broader context of these results is shaped by the substantial investment in digital infrastructure, operating model transformation, and the scaling of our retail banking franchise. The transformation of our technology and digital capabilities, which will shape not only our retail banking, is progressing at an accelerated pace.

Core digital service solutions have now been fully rolled out in ProCredit Bank Kosovo, which effectively serves as a blueprint for other banks in the group. Launches in several additional banks are already underway, and we expect the majority of implementations to be completed during 2026.

It is worth noting that we confirm our interest to divest our operations in Ecuador. We are confident, progressing with these efforts, and we expect to finalize the divestiture during 2026.

The transaction is anticipated to have a financial impact in the profitability of the group, which is reflected in the ROE for 2026. Overall, we view 2025 as a year in which the foundations of our strategic transition have been firmly laid, while the medium-term trajectory we outlined two years ago, particularly the ROE target of 13% to 14%, remains fully on track.

Of course, we firmly intend to deliver on our dividend policy this year as well, and we plan to propose a dividend of 47 cents per share to the AGM in June this year. This slide rather complements my summary on the performance, I would not dwell.

Loans grew at a solid pace, around 13% adjusted for currency effects, while deposits expanded at a comparable rate, driven largely by retail customers and mainly in sight and saving accounts. Asset quality is robust, even though our stage 3 ratio increased, and Christian will provide more insights.

Our capital position remains strong, with a CET1 ratio comfortably above regulatory requirements at around 13.1%. Taken together, these results reflect a banking group that is ambitiously growing its business while making significant investments in its future operating platform, positioning itself to unlock substantial value for its shareholders.

One of the most encouraging developments since the launch of our updated business strategy in early 2024 has been the strong loan growth in the low-volume segments. Micro business lending and smaller-volume loan exposures have expanded particularly strong, with volumes increasing by roughly 43% in the last two years.

This segment is strategically important for us. It broadens the base of our SME ecosystem, creates a more granular portfolio structure, and supports lending margins.

In parallel, we have seen a clear acceleration in retail client deposits, which have grown by 40% since the end of 2023, reflecting our increased focus on this segment. Notably, much of this growth has been achieved without the full supporting infrastructure and progress in place, highlighting the significant upside potential as we accelerate these developments in 2026 and 2027.

We are seeing clear evidence that the ecosystem approach we are developing across SMEs, microenterprises, and retail customers is beginning to gain traction. Our growth momentum is visible across the entire region we operate.

All ProCredit banks in Southeastern and Eastern Europe are currently expanding their client base, and loan portfolios are healthy, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and our strong positioning in the MSME segment. During the year, we surpassed an important milestone: more than 80,000 SME customers across the region.

This underscores the strength of our SME franchise, where our ability to build and maintain trust-based, long-term client relationships, combined with the high quality of our holistic banking services, creates a differentiated value proposition and high barriers to replication. At the same time, we are beginning to see the early impact of our renewed focus on digital retail banking.

In the group's early years, retail banking was actually an important part of our business model. Over time, the focus shifted more towards SMEs.

Today, with the digital capabilities we are building, we believe we have a unique opportunity to re-establish a strong position in retail, this time as a modern, digital-first bank. The macroeconomic outlook for our region continues to be favorable.

Growth prospects in Southeastern and Eastern Europe remain significantly stronger than in euro area. Many of our countries continue to benefit from structural convergence dynamics, strong domestic demand, and ongoing foreign direct investment.

Inflation levels have stabilized and remain comparatively moderate, while consumption and investment continue to support economic expansion. Another important structural factor is the continued momentum around EU accession processes in several countries.

In Bulgaria, the adoption of the euro, which came into effect in January this year, represents a particularly significant step, which is expected to further stimulate investments, tourism, and cross-border trade, while eliminating foreign exchange risk for business and financial institutions. The war in Ukraine, unfortunately, remains an ongoing human catastrophe and major factor of uncertainty for the region and the continent as a whole.

However, international institutions continue to show strong commitment to support the country and the entire eastern flank, and economic resilience has been notable. Regarding the impact of global developments, the discussions around the new tariff system has had limited direct impact on our countries so far, due to the limited interconnectedness of the economies of our countries with the US economy.

Notably, broader geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent escalations in the Middle East, are creating a new wave of uncertainty for the global economy. While we are monitoring these developments closely, at this stage, we do not see direct, specific vulnerabilities for our region nor for our core customer segments.

As mentioned, I want to spend some time on strategic priorities in today's call to provide transparency on where we stand today and on what we plan to execute in 2026. Our strategy is built around three core priorities: profitability, growth, and positioning.

Our focus on profitability is about unlocking the value that remains untapped in our business model. By expanding the balance sheet through a modern, scalable digital banking infrastructure, we can realize the full growth potential of our business.

We can achieve stronger volume growth while simultaneously restructuring our balance sheet into more granular and diversified positions, which will help improve margins on both sides. Additionally, deepening client engagements and improving strategic cross-sellings will boost non-interest income across both current and future clients.

Our growth focus is on scaling operations and attracting more new-to-bank clients. Over the medium term, we aim to grow the loan portfolio beyond €10 billion and reach a critical size in each market, as well as the critical size for the group overall.

Finally, positioning: we aim to further strengthen our position as a leading bank for MSMEs by deepening the house bank relationships with our clients. At the same time, we are establishing a new identity as a regional digital attacker in retail banking, aiming to deliver a highly convenient and a trusted mobile-first daily banking experience.

At the heart of this strategy is a triple-engine ecosystem created through the interaction of our SME, micro, and retail customers. SME clients remain the cornerstone of our franchise.

They form the backbone of our competitive advantage, our strong brand, and the defining relationships in our markets. Through these connections, we gain deep insights into local business networks, including owners, employees, suppliers, their own social networks, all of whom represent potential retail clients.

Micro businesses are often directly embedded in these supply chains. With a highly automated operating model and the digital lending capabilities we are building, this segment can scale significantly and efficiently.

We currently serve roughly 30,000 micro customers, and we see substantial room for further expansion. Retail banking provides a strong foundation for our funding model.

By tapping local markets, we are building a broad and diversified deposit base made up of granular, low-cost balances. This not only strengthens the stability of our balance sheet, but also creates opportunities to scale our lending, support SMEs and micro businesses, and deepen our relationship with communities.

In short, a retail-driven funding model allows us to grow sustainably while unlocking long-term value. The strength of our triple-engine business model—SME, micro, and retail—lies in its ability to create both value and profitability.

By working together, these segments create a mutually reinforcing ecosystem that allows ProCredit franchise to reach its full potential. The transformation of our digital capabilities is one of the most important initiatives currently underway, and it goes well beyond establishing a just strong retail banking franchise.

At its core, we are building a scalable digital banking platform while maintaining full technological sovereignty and alignment with our responsible banking model. For clients, this means a fundamental improved banking experience.

A new mobile banking application for retail clients was launched in mid-2025, representing a major infrastructure milestone. It enables fully digital onboarding, seamless account opening, and increasingly also straight-through digital lending journeys for retail and micro clients.

At the same time, new features are continuously being rolled out across markets for both MSME and retail clients. More importantly, we are also transforming the way we operate.

Our delivery model is increasingly organized around agile squads and product-oriented teams. AI-supported development tools and automation will help us accelerate increasingly most software lifecycle and reduce time to market.

From a technology perspective, we are modernizing the core banking platform and introducing microservice architecture with expanded APIs and a stronger data foundation. This will allow us to truly scale the business over the coming years.

At last, let's have a look where we stand today. Over the past two years, we have focused heavily on building the capabilities and infrastructure required for digital scale.

We have modernized large part of the core banking architecture and launched our new mobile banking application in four banks. Digital onboarding for retail clients has already been introduced, and the first steps towards automated consumer lending have been implemented.

ProCredit Bank Kosovo, as mentioned earlier, has effectively become the full implementation of this model, and it is our first bank with a mobile-first retail banking model in place. In 2026, our focus shifts to larger-scale rollouts across the group.

For retail banking, this includes deploying the new mobile app, digital onboarding, and digital lending capabilities across the remaining banks. For MSMEs, we will launch end-to-end digital loan origination processes for micro customers, and we will introduce new internet banking capabilities for SMEs.

The remaining solution rollouts in 2027 include credit card functionalities and advanced CRM capabilities. Beyond that timeline, digital innovation will continue to be a core focus for the group.

It would be an illusion to think of digitalization as a one-off transformation with a defined endpoint. Rather, it is an ongoing process that requires constant refinement of our technology platform, operating model, and customer experience.

New technologies, evolving client expectations, and regulatory developments will continue to shape the way banking services are delivered. Our objective, therefore, is not to simply complete a set of rollouts and developments, but to establish the capabilities and organizational structures within our group that will allow us to innovate continuously and to adapt quickly as the digital landscape evolves.

Looking ahead, our ambition is to transform ProCredit into a banking group capable of generating returns on equity of approximately 13% to 14% with potential upside. Several drivers will support this trajectory.

First, scale, automation, and operational efficiency as we expand the client base and reach critical size in each market. Second, we will deepen the SME house bank model while scaling micro segments through automated processes.

Third, we are building our retail banking into a regional digital banking franchise with a seamless mobile-first experience. Digital excellence will be the foundation for faster execution, greater efficiency, and more effective capital deployment.

Meanwhile, our balance sheet will become increasingly granular as micro and retail exposures expand. From an operational perspective, our medium-term KPIs are clear: grow the number of active clients across all segments, increase the share of micro and consumer loans, increase the share of retail customer deposits to 50% mainly in current and savings accounts, drive digital usage above 90% among retail clients, and ensure more sales are executed digitally.

Finally, we continue to focus on capital efficiency, including reducing the group's RWA density to below 60%. We have made good progress on this in Q4 2025, and Christian will share more details shortly.

With that overview of our strategic progress and operating environment, I'll now hand over to Christian. He will take you through the business and financial performance for 2025 in more detail.

Christian Dagrosa

Thank you, Eriola, and good afternoon everyone also from my side. Let me begin straightaway with the development of our loan portfolio.

We recorded strong loan portfolio growth during the year, with expansion across all markets and client segments. On an FX-adjusted basis, the loan book increased by 13.1%.

Importantly, about 80% of that growth came from the lower-volume segments that are central to the strategic repositioning Eriola just described. Micro lending expanded particularly strongly, with volumes increasing by around 42% year-on-year.

Retail lending also developed very dynamically, growing by approximately 29%. As a result, the share of lower-volume exposures in the total loan portfolio continues to increase meaningfully.

Since the introduction of the new strategy in early 2024, the share has risen by 6 percentage points and now stands at around 48%. This reflects the increasing granularity of the balance sheet and demonstrates clear progress in executing the strategic shift towards a broader and more diversified client base.

We also saw strong deposit growth during the year, essentially mirroring the strong development on the lending side. Retail client deposits increased their share of total deposits by roughly 1 percentage point during 2025 and by about 3 percentage points since the start of the strategic transition.

The more important development concerns the structure of deposit growth. In 2024, the vast majority of deposit inflows still came in the form of term deposits, which are relatively expensive, especially given the prevailing interest rate environment.

This was one of the key reasons why refinancing costs were higher than initially expected, which in turn put pressure on margins and the cost-income ratio. In 2025, this picture changed significantly.

More than 60% of deposits came from sight and savings deposits. This represents a clear improvement in the quality of funding growth and reflects the strengthening of our transactional banking relationships with clients.

In our view, this is a tangible sign that the strategic transformation of our retail franchise is beginning to translate into funding benefits, which has already resulted in slight but steady expansion of the net interest margin in recent quarters. Looking at the income statement more broadly, operating income declined slightly by about 1.1% year-on-year.

The main driver was a decline in policy rates during the year, which has led to a reduction in net interest income despite the meaningful volume effects. Lower rates particularly affected the return on liquidity holdings, especially balances held at central banks, while market deposit rates for customer funding remained comparatively elevated.

This goes in particular for term deposits, which, as just explained, were the major source of refinancing in 2024. On the positive side, interest income from customer loans increased by more than €21 million or 5%, which would have been enough to offset the €11 million increase in interest expenses.

Also positive is that net fee and commission income continued to grow, increasing by around €5 million year-on-year. This was primarily driven by higher transaction volumes and stronger foreign exchange business.

This, too, is a sign of ongoing strategic execution and progress as client wallet shares are increasing and we're expanding in areas that were previously largely underdeveloped, such as trade finance. The cost-income ratio remains clearly elevated at around 73%, reflecting three major factors.

First, the strategic investments undertaken in the last two years, which form the basis of the ongoing transformation of the group. Second, the persistently high deposit rates in the market environment, which drive high interest expenses.

Lastly, the continued weak earnings performance of ProCredit Bank Ecuador, which accounted for a cost-income ratio of 135% in 2025. Let's move to interest income.

In the fourth quarter, net interest income amounted to €92.2 million, corresponding to a net interest margin of 3.3%. Compared with the previous quarter, net interest income increased by €2.7 million, an improvement mainly driven by continued business expansion and increasingly stabilizing weighted average interest rates on assets.

On the liability side, market deposit rates remain relatively elevated, which continues to influence funding costs. However, steady structural improvements in our refinancing have helped stabilize interest expenses to some extent.

For the full year, net interest income declined by €5.3 million or about 1.5% year-on-year, with net interest margin at around 3.2%. The underlying dynamics are relatively straightforward.

Strong loan growth drove a significant increase in interest income, but this was offset by repricing effects on assets and persistently higher pricing on the liability side. In addition, higher volumes of term deposits and subordinated debt led to volume-driven increase in interest expenses.

While market headwinds are likely to remain, the quarter-on-quarter trends seen in 2025 are encouraging, and we are actively reinforcing the fundamental drivers of this progress. Let's turn to net fee and commission income.

In the fourth quarter, net fees amounted to €25.6 million. This represents an increase of nearly 7% compared with the previous quarter and roughly 5% compared with the same quarter last year.

The improvement was broad-based, with payments, account maintenance fees, documentary business, card transactions, and foreign exchange services all contributing to the increase. For the full year, net fee and commission income grew by €5.1 million or about 5.5%.

Payment services were the largest contributor, increasing by around €2.4 million. Higher transaction volumes more than compensated for the slightly negative effect from the introduction of SEPA payments in some of our markets.

Foreign exchange transactions also continued their steady upward trend, contributing roughly €2.8 million in additional income. Lastly, income from documentary business increased by around €1.3 million, which represents a strong growth of 17% and reflects the progress we are making in deepening client relationships within the SME segment.

The only area showing a decline was card services, where the net contribution decreased by around €1.5 million, mainly due to higher fees charged by card providers. Moving on, personnel and administrative expenses in the fourth quarter amounted to €91.6 million.

This quarter included several seasonal and one-off items. For example, we recognized an impairment of around €2.8 million related to certain internally developed IT assets that are now being replaced by new technology as part of the broader digital transformation.

Marketing expenses also increased by around €1.7 million, mainly reflecting targeted campaigns accompanying product rollouts. IT expenses increased by approximately €1.1 million as the rollout of new digital systems continues across the group at an accelerated pace.

Personnel costs rose by around €1.2 million in the fourth quarter, largely due to one-time effects like the recognition of provisions for untaken vacation as well as an increase in severance payments. Looking at the full year more broadly, personnel and administrative expenses increased by €19.7 million or 6.5%.

The largest component of this increase relates to personnel expenses, which rose by €12.8 million, largely as a consequence of the significant recruitment efforts in 2024 when the group added more than 700 employees. The remaining increases mainly reflect higher IT spending and depreciation associated with our investments in technology as well as branches.

Turning to credit risk, in the fourth quarter, we recorded a net release of provisions of approximately €5.7 million following the regular year-end update of risk parameters, offsetting some of the extraordinary provisions of quarter three. Total balance sheet loss allowance now stands at around €188 million.

The overall level of provisions increased during the year, primarily as a result of strong loan growth and certain credit risk developments. These increases were partly offset by write-offs and some currency-related effects.

Management overlays are now at around €50 million post-parameter review, representing about 27% of total provisions. These overlays continue to provide a prudent buffer against macroeconomic uncertainty and potential credit risk developments.

Now let's have a look at portfolio quality. Overall, portfolio quality indicators remain solid.

However, the share of impaired loans increased in 2025 to around 3%. This development is largely related to several project finance exposures that we already discussed during our quarter three call.

These exposures have now migrated from stage 2 to stage 3, which also explains the increase in the default ratio, as well as the corresponding reduction in stage 2 exposures. Importantly, this transition has not resulted in a material increase in provisions.

Most of these projects related to renewable energy developments where construction progress has been slower than originally anticipated. The main challenge has been delays in implementation rather than fundamental project viability.

Based on our current assessment, we continue to believe that these projects remain economically sound once construction and electrification are fully completed. Now, looking briefly at the regional distribution of results, the Southeastern European segment continues to represent the largest contribution to the group's performance, adding almost €100 million to group profit.

Strong loan growth and stable asset quality supported solid profitability across the region. Eastern Europe also delivered positive contributions, also thanks to a strong FX-adjusted loan growth of close to 20%, including strong business expansion in Ukraine.

In both segments, ROEs are between 12% and 15% with cost-income ratios at around 60%. Ecuador contributed negatively to the group results, €10.7 million for the full year.

The defining deficiencies remain the same as in 2024: high refinancing costs, capped lending rates, and a difficult market environment amid a deteriorated security situation. On a positive note, results have significantly stabilized in the second half of the year, and we expect the bank to break even in quarter one this year.

We expect that a stabilized earning situation will provide a solid off-ramp to retrieve regulatory approval for the planned divestment. Finally, let me briefly address capital and risk-weighted assets.

The CET1 ratio remained stable at around 13.1%. This figure already reflects the recognition of the results for the first three quarters of 2025.

Capital levels, therefore, remain solidly above the regulatory requirements of 10.3% for CET1, 12.5% for Tier 1, and 15.6% for total capital. The total capital ratio increased slightly to 16.3% compared with the year-end level, mainly due to the issuance of additional subordinated debt.

Risk-weighted assets increased in the area of credit risk, reflecting the strong organic growth in MSME and retail lending and, therefore, the continued execution of the group's strategy. Basel IV impacts are already incorporated in the reported RWA numbers.

Market risk-weighted assets declined by around €200 million, primarily due to a new framework for open currency position hedging adopted by ProCredit Holding in late 2025. In essence, the holding acquires hedges for local currencies in its markets of operation to steer the maximum impact of FX changes to its regulatory capital positions.

As a result of the first hedges acquired in December, RWA density decreased by around 3.5 percentage points to 62.9%. Looking ahead, we plan further reductions in market risk RWA, pending regulatory approval to recognize the remaining open currency position as structurally hedged.

This structural hedge reflects the natural offset between capital held in foreign currency and RWAs denominated in the same currencies. While this hedging framework will have a negative effect on the P&L going forward, assuming regulatory approval, it is a capital measure with an attractive cost of capital for shareholders.

To summarize, 2025 was characterized by strong portfolio expansion, particularly in the strategically important lower-volume segments, continued growth in transaction-driven fee income, and tangible progress in improving the structure of our funding base. At the same time, profitability remains influenced by the elevated interest rate environment for deposits and the substantial investments we are undertaking to transform the group's digital capabilities and operating platform.

With that, I would hand the call back to Eriola, who will provide some perspectives on the outlook for the group going forward.

Eriola Bibolli

Thank you, Christian. Let me conclude then with our expectations for 2026 and the medium-term trajectory of the group.

In 2026, we expect our strong business expansion to continue, driving meaningful income growth and net interest margin stability. Our balance sheet transformation will support this through faster loan growth in higher-yield segments—micro, small, and retail—and a more cost-efficient deposit structure focused on current and savings accounts.

In addition, the focus of this year remains on the following strategic developments: number one, progress in digitalization transformation, and number two, implementation of the capital optimization initiatives, laying both the foundation for scalable growth and income generation in 2026 and beyond. On digitalization, I want to highlight again that our digital and technology transformation is central to strengthening our position as a leading bank for MSMEs, and it is critical to our ambition to become a convenient, trusted, mobile-first retail bank across our markets.

This transformation will continue to require significant investments in 2026 and will influence our cost base in the years ahead. On capital optimization, Christian outlined our updated hedging framework.

This initiative alone is expected to significantly reduce the market risk-weighted assets and enhance our capital efficiency essential to asset growth. The estimated costs for this transaction are around €6 million in 2026.

Hence, these investments in digitalization and capital optimization will weigh on return on equity this year, but we consider them essential to enable ambitious growth and long-term value creation in the years to come. In addition to that, the profitability of 2026 will be affected by a number of one-offs, but I won't go into detail; they are covered and quantified on a separate page in the appendix.

In short, they include the expected P&L impact from the planned divestiture of our ProCredit Bank in Ecuador and headwinds from temporary tax increases in Ukraine and Romania. Overall, we expect profitability and cost efficiency to stay broadly in line with 2025.

For ROE, we cautiously guide for a level of around 7%. Although we estimate higher net interest income, stronger business expansion, and progress in balance sheet transformation, factoring in the effects mentioned above, the level of ROE remains at 7% in 2026.

What is important to us, though: we target strong loan growth of 12% to 15% for continued operations, assuming market conditions remain stable despite global uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East. Currently, we do not see direct impact in our region.

Our capital position remains strong, with a CET1 ratio projected at approximately 13%. Let me conclude today's presentation by reaffirming our medium-term outlook and expressing our confidence in our ability to achieve our strategic targets by 2029.

The progress we made during 2025 has been particularly important in this regard. During the year, we established the key foundations for the group's transformation.

We accelerated growth in our strategic client segments, made tangible progress in reshaping the balance sheet, and importantly, advanced our digital banking capabilities at a pace that has already significantly strengthened our future operating model. With rollouts taking place across our network through 2026, we are eager to leverage these new capabilities.

Looking ahead, we aim to grow the loan portfolio beyond €10 billion, an important milestone, but by no means the endpoint. As we continue to scale our SME, micro, and retail ecosystems across our markets, we believe our franchise has the potential to grow well beyond this level.

We also aim to substantially increase profitability, targeting ROE of 13% to 14% with further upside potential from Ukraine. The operational advantages of scale, digitalization, and a more granular balance sheet should enable us to bring the cost-income ratio down to roughly 57% over the medium term.

We pursue these targets from a position of strengthened capabilities. The group has now more advanced digital infrastructure, more efficient processes, and greater organizational capabilities than ever before.

We continue to invest in our people, who remain the key drivers of our success. With committed teams across all markets and a clear strategic direction, we are well-positioned to unlock the full potential of the ProCredit Group and deliver sustainable shareholder value in the years ahead.

With that, I conclude the presentation, and I open the floor for your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their telephone.

You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2.

Anyone who has a question may press star and 1 at this time. We have the first question coming from Milosz Papst from Edison Group.

Please go ahead.

Milosz Papst

Yes. Hi.

Thanks for the presentation and for taking my questions. Let me start with discussing your cost base in 2026.

I think previously the base case was that the extensive investments in the implementation of the new strategy were gradually coming to an end, which would have a stabilizing effect on the cost base, basically. Now the question is, what do you expect for next year?

Are there any incremental costs on top of what you expected previously in terms of digitalization spend, and head counts growth? Maybe you can also give us an update on the expansion of the branch network.

Then you've mentioned that you've recognized an impairment on internally developed IT. Does it mean that there will be incremental costs from some IT developments which are done externally now?

Maybe I'll stop there.

Christian Dagrosa

Thank you, Milosz. I will take this, and see if Eriola has anything to add beyond that.

Indeed, the messaging last year was that some of the really most radical investment programs were flattening out. This includes, obviously, the increase in staff, as well as the expansion of the branch network.

Both is true, because in 2024, we added some 700-800 people to our network. We significantly grew the branch network.

These investments have visibly then come to an end in 2025. It goes without saying that going forward, costs will continue to grow, specifically on IT.

That is clear. On staff, we will have to increase on a need basis, right?

This does not mean another increase such as we have seen in 2024. This just to contextualize a bit the assertions we made in 2025 with going forward.

Costs will continue to grow, but we are much more focused on developing income side, structurally improving net interest margins, scaling the operations, and therefore having a healthy income growth that more than offsets the cost basis. On the IT developments, we can share that the write-offs that we undertook now, they're obviously also cleaning the way also from an accounting perspective moving forward.

We have developed new systems internally. These are largely internal developed, but they're replacing the old ones, hence the one-time write-off in 2025.

Milosz Papst

Perfect. Thank you.

Then okay, maybe the next question would be on how much of the increase in cost next year will be recurring versus one-off? Not expecting you to quantify it in detail, but I remember that you previously guided, I think, for €27 million increase €27 million increase in additional network costs from office rent, depreciation, IT costs, and marketing expenses, which were meant to be recurring.

Can you give us some background on that as well?

Christian Dagrosa

We have included a slide in the in the annex that covers in in more detail the the one-off expenses that we that we expect for 2026. These include, of course, the divesture from ProCredit Bank Ecuador, which we expect to be in a high single-digit to low double-digit million amount.

We already covered the the hedging framework, which will add approximately €5 million to €6 million in in in additional costs. We have the fact that that Bulgaria adopted the euro, we will which is obviously beneficial for the country, for for for financial institutions, for SMEs as a whole, the benefits that Eriola reflected.

It comes with a expected decline in net fee income in a mid-single digit single-digit million amount. We have headwinds from from the tax environment, specifically in in Ukraine, which will once again introduce an income tax of 50%, as well as Romania, which introduced a revenue tax of 4%.

Here, we expect high single-digit to low double-digit million impact. These these effects alone, they yeah, they can be added up to to a sizable amount, and and they're mostly one-time in nature, or when they're not of one-time in nature, such as the the hedging framework, then they provide tangible long-term added value and shareholder value.

Then on the on the operating costs, I don't want to say too much. We we we will continue to invest in IT.

This is, as Eriola said, not a one-time rollout of individual systems that, once implemented, will will stay forever. We we have to continue investing in digitalization in the years in the years to come.

On on the other expenses, we will we will see moderate growth that is that is reflecting also the fact that we have ambitious expansion plans.

Milosz Papst

Understood. I was mostly asking about potential one-off costs on rolling out the digital infrastructure.

I understand that there will be no major one-off, let's say, project costs which will not reoccur in the following years. It's more about continuous investment in infrastructure, right?

Christian Dagrosa

It's more about continuous investments. Certainly IT will be the area where costs will be increasing more visibly, while in most other cases, we expect moderate increases.

What we're not explicitly taking into account, which is rather a medium-term benefit is once digitalization projects are fully completed, are potential upside effects from efficiency measures that can be leveraged throughout the group. This is not explicitly discussed and mentioned here.

We don't foresee this to be happening in '26 or '27, but simply see this as a long-term upside and reflect this in our medium-term expectations.

Eriola Bibolli

I can add here an answer to in part your question. We do not plan further increase of the branch network.

We have already achieved an optimum size of the branch network, and the focus is now on the rollout of digital initiatives and the full utilization of the existing branch network, which complements the delivery channel for the customers. On staff increases, it is a moderate increase more on strengthening new capabilities on the digital product development side, retail banking side, but we do not see structural investments and increase in costs on the traditional banking channel.

Milosz Papst

Perfect. That's very helpful.

My last question would be on the sale of the Ecuadorian bank. I know that you can't go into details, but can you give us a very broad sense of what initial buyers' interest you see for this asset?

Or is it too early to say?

Christian Dagrosa

Milosz, at this point, we have received an offer with specific economic terms to which we agreed in an informal way. We are now at a stage where we need to engage with the regulators, all of this transaction remains pending regulatory approval.

What we can say at this stage is that starting quarter one, the entity will be classified as held for sale under IFRS 5.

Milosz Papst

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Knud Hinkel from Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.

Knud Hinkel

Good afternoon. Thanks for having me.

First things first, Mrs. Bibolli, very nice to meet you for the first time.

Now coming to my questions. You said you have

Operator

Mr. Hinkel, your line quality was not good.

Can you speak again?

Knud Hinkel

Hello? Now

Operator

we can hear you again.

Knud Hinkel

Okay. Probably because I'm traveling, that's probably the reason why the connection is not super good.

Nevertheless, on my questions. On page 11, there was a number that caught my eye, that was that digital sales share should go up from 30% to 90%.

Is my reading correct that this is one of your central initiatives going forward as new CEO? That would be my first question.

Are there additional strategic initiatives that you plan that you could outline here in this call? That would be my second question.

Then thirdly, can you confirm, the return on equity will remain at the same level in '26 as in '25, but is it entirely due to higher investments as opposed to higher risk costs that were impacting the result in '25? That would be my fourth question.

My fifth question is, ProCredit was a little bit special always, a special bank in my view. Will ProCredit keep its ESG-focused approach to banking under your office, Mrs.

Bibolli? That would be my five questions.

Thank you very much.

Eriola Bibolli

Thank you very much for your questions. I confirm our ambition to continue with the digital transformation of the group and the building of our new retail banking mobile-first model.

At the heart of such a model, we confirm that we aim to achieve a digital usage above 90%, meaning our value proposition is tailored around a convenient daily banking, and we expect our customers to transact digitally up to 90% of the volume of transactions without reliance on other channels of distribution. At the same time, we expect most of sales to be conducted digitally, which is a different dimension of digital retail banking.

This is a central initiative. At the same time, we commit that up to 50%-55% of our loan origination for granular lending in micro and in consumer loans to be done digitally in the next two years.

These are, for us, the key initiatives that we'll be focusing on going forward. There are other associated or related transformational initiatives, but in terms of capturing operational KPIs, these two would be the most important one supporting the main objective to achieve and improve the medium-term ROE of the group in the range of 13% to 14%.

Then I would answer on your last question on the ESG focus. Clearly, ProCredit Group will continue to be an impact-driven and a sustainability-driven banking group.

We are anchored. The way we do business is responsible, ethical, and we are committed to the ESG agenda, and I would not change anything in the identity and the focus of the group.

Nevertheless, while we remain focused on sustainability, we are focused on the sustainability of our business model first, and this is why I underscored my priorities into strengthening the profitability of the group, ensuring that the group can achieve growth and it's a fit for the future institution, and we achieve the positioning required in each market and as a small banking group, all of this anchored in an impactful and sustainability-driven business model. Can you please repeat the second question, Mr.

Hinkel?

Knud Hinkel

My second question was, yeah, on the ROE. In '25, I think the ROE was impacted by higher risk costs.

For next year, you pointed to higher investment into digitalization and a number of special items. Can you confirm that this is no higher risk costs resulting from portfolio issues or something in this area?

That was my question.

Eriola Bibolli

Indeed, you are right. Part of the ROE in 2025 was affected by the increased cost of risk that we already informed the capital markets in our disclosure in November 2025.

The estimation for 2026 is that the cost of risk would remain at rather moderate levels. We do not foresee any one-off effect or increase in enhanced risks.

At the same time, the main drivers of the ROE this year would remain, I repeat, it would see growth in net interest income, and we'll see an increasing trend in the net interest margin. However, this would not be in a magnitude high enough to compensate for still required investments in the digital and technology transformation and the accelerated rollout that we plan to conduct in 2026 that would continue to weigh the opex in 2026.

Then, as Christian explained, we are undertaking measures to strengthen our capital base, which from the P&L perspective, they have material costs that, in the short term, they would affect the P&L, but they are essential and required to support the growth potential of the group forward. Last, it is a combination of the other effects, as Christian explained, the planned divestiture of Ecuador combined with the depleted fee income from Bulgaria and the introduction of SEPA payments in two of our countries and the increased tax rates in Ukraine and in Romania, aggregated together, are sizable, and they come at a time when we are still pushed to continue with our investments in digitalization because that's strategically and critically important for the group.

As a result, the increase in net interest income would not be high enough to absorb and compensate for all these effects aggregated together. We do not foresee in this picture an elevated cost of risk for 2026.

Knud Hinkel

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Marius Fuhrberg from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Hi.

Marius Fuhrberg

Thanks for taking my questions. Once again, on the cost side, please.

The extraordinary effects that you mentioned on page 28 of your presentation, am I right to assume that basically all the effects above the tax effect are included in the cost-income ratio? When I deduct all those extraordinary effects, your cost-income ratio for 2026 would probably be more in the ballpark area of 68%, 69%?

A second question with regard to your NPL ratio, that jumped quite significantly in Q4 to 3%, while the cost of risk showed a net release of provisions. Was this all connected to the project delays, the stage 3 increase, to project delays in, I think it was Bulgaria?

How should we expect the further development of these positions? When would, yeah, these NPLs result in effective cost increases, or do you expect a recovery?

What are your thoughts on this?

Christian Dagrosa

Thank you, Marius, for the questions, for joining today's call. On the cost side, we we we on on purpose, we did not create a a normalized ROE and cost-income ratio, I I don't want to confirm this this this roundabout figure, but, obviously, from a technical perspective, you're right.

The the the tax expenses, the income tax expense from Ukraine would not go into the cost-income ratio. The Romanian tax in in Romania is not an income tax per se, this is booked in in the administrative expenses because it's a it's a revenue tax.

In principle, it's right, also what Eriola said. In in in this year, we plan to significantly increase core revenues, from from net interest income, above all, in structurally also from net fees, but there's the offsetting factor from from Bulgaria, which is why net fees will will likely not grow significantly, but the the driver is, of course, net interest income.

Then we have the the increases in the cost base that are that are more strategic in IT, less on personnel, but some, close to nothing in terms of the network, and then the one-off effects that that are the reason why both cost-income ratio and ROE are a bit stagnant. Obviously, without the one-off effects, we would see an improvement in in both ratios.

On the NPL, it's it's is is exactly as you said. The the the cost of risk impact was largely already absorbed in quarter three when we when when these exposures that were already in stage 2 were transferred into a higher risk class and we provisioned prudently in this in this instance and had already communicated then that should these exposures transfer into stage 3, we would not expect any additional significant P&L effect.

This is exactly what happened in quarter four. We transferred them into stage 3 as the delays the construction continued not to be resolved.

Now I cannot speak really about the expectations, the further development of of these projects. As I mentioned, fundamentally, they are economically sound projects.

How they will be dealt with going forward, we we will have to see. We are right now focused on moving forward with electrification and construction.

That is that is our focus. Otherwise, the NPL ratio without these projects is closer to 2.0%, which is, as for our markets, an extremely strong figure, and we don't expect any significant development from this year.

Cautious, nonetheless, about the the the broader geopolitical environment and the tensions that broke out in the Middle East. Naturally, this can have very broad global economic implications, which are not really specific to our markets, but our markets are part of the of the global ecosystem.

At this point, we we don't see a a significant shift here.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Eriola Bibolli for any closing remarks.

Eriola Bibolli

Thank you very much to the analysts for the thoughtful and engaging questions. Today's call was

Operator

Sorry to interrupt you, Ms. Bibolli.

We have a last-minute question coming from Andreas Thiel from Warburg Research.

Eriola Bibolli

Yes, please. Yeah.

Andreas Pläsier

Thank you for your presentation and taking my question. Only two questions left.

Firstly, coming to your return on equity target in 2029, should we here expect a more hockey stick development towards 2029, or can we already expect a substantial improvement into the double-digit return on equity range next year? That would be the first one.

The second one is regarding your NII development. We have a positive development already in last year.

Do you expect a strong contribution to your revenues in this year? Should we expect here also an improvement of the NII margin in 2026?

Thank you.

Eriola Bibolli

Thank you very much for your question. We do not foresee a further hockey stick on the ROE going forward to 2029.

We have already indicated that the years 2025 and 2026 have been the years of the acceleration of our digital transformation and the rollout of the digital initiatives across the group, which largely are expected to be implemented by the end of 2026, beginning of 2027. As a result, the significant weight of the costs required to undertake these investments, it is already reflected in these two years.

From the year 2027 onwards, we foresee further investments and improvement in the digital infrastructure, but we would see a stronger magnitude of growth in the net interest income and fee income, simply being able to scale a different level of growth and increasing not only the volume, but further improving the structure of growth towards high-yield low-volume loans and further improving the cost of deposits that would hopefully decrease the interest expenses on the deposit side. As a result, the expectation is to see further on a gradual improved of ROE, reaching hopefully to 13%-14% to 2029.

Similarly, the answer to your second question on the development of the net interest income, we see further incremental improvements and increase in the net interest income and the net interest margin as a result of our successful progress with the balance sheet transformation and achievement of the targeted volume of growth in the right structure in the granular segments on both sides of the balance sheet that would enable the group to just show a steady, incremental increase net interest margin, net interest income, and ROE.

Andreas Pläsier

Thank you.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Eriola Bibolli for any closing remarks.

Eriola Bibolli

Thank you very much again to the analysts for all your thoughtful and engaging questions today. Today's call, as said, was somewhat longer than our usual sessions, but we felt it was an important moment to take the time to provide a more comprehensive update on the progress we are making in the strategic transformation of the group.

We appreciate your interest and your continued engagement with ProCredit. If there are any further questions following this call, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team.

Nadine and her colleagues will of course be happy to assist you. We look forward to speaking with you again at our next results presentation on May 13th for the Q1 '26 results.

Thank you very much, and you have a good day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over and you may now disconnect your lines.