Ben Poh
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Ben Poh, Head of Investor Relations, and today I will be moderating the call.
On behalf of ASMPT Limited, welcome to our second quarter and first half of 2026 investor conference call. Thank you all for your interest and continued support.
Please note that all participants will be in listen-only mode during the presentation by the management. We will start the Q&A session after the presentations.
During the Q&A session, priority will be given to the covering analyst. Before we start, let me go through our disclaimer.
Please note that there may be forward-looking statements about the company business and finances during this call. Such forward-looking statements could involve known and unknown uncertainties and risks that could cause actual results, performance, and events to differ materially from those expressed or implied during this conference call.
For your reference, the Investor Relations presentation on our recent results is available on our website. On today's call, we have the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr.
Robin Ng, and the Group Chief Financial Officer, Ms. Katie Xu.
Robin will cover the group's key highlights for the second quarter and the first half of 2026 and provide outlook and guidance for the following quarter, while Katie will provide details on the financial performance. Now, I will hand the time over to our Group Chief Executive Officer, Robin.
Robin, please.
Robin Ng
Thank you, Ben. Good morning, everyone.
Thank you for joining us today for our second quarter and the first half of 2026 earnings conference call. Before we begin, I'm sure you are aware of the news that I will be stepping down as Group CEO on 11 August 2026, this will be my last quarterly earnings call with all of you.
I took over as Group CEO at the very height of the COVID pandemic in May 2020, hosting the first investor conference call, which was Q2 2020, and it has been quite a journey. I'm proud of what we have achieved as a business.
I look forward to the company progressing on its transformation journey as it sharpens its focus on the backend packaging business, a business that has experienced rapid growth over the last few years. I'm grateful for your trust in me over the years as we chronicled this journey together.
Looking to the future, I'm confident that the new CEO, Mr. [Bassel Hadad?]
, will continue on this transformation journey and bring ASMPT to even greater heights given our technology leadership, strong foundations, and great people. Thank you for your continued support.
Now, let me proceed with the earnings call with some key business highlights for the first half of 2026. For the first half, I'm pleased to share that ASMPT achieved strong revenue and bookings driven by AI and the recovery in our traditional mainstream business.
As AI capabilities advance, semiconductor architecture requirements continue to expand beyond compute to continuous planning, workload orchestration, memory access, and real-time data movement. These developments have placed increasing demands on semiconductor manufacturing to support workloads from data centers to edge devices.
Next, SMT achieved record bookings largely driven by strong demand from AI servers. AI servers continue to be a significant source of demand with accelerated adoption of SMT's high-flex, high-force solutions.
SMT bookings were also driven by demand for optical transceivers and China's EV segment. Semi AP bookings doubled year-on-year due to photonics and TCB.
This highlights ASMPT multiple AP solutions, which are key enablers for present and future AI infrastructure. At the group level, our first half revenue increased 18.9% half-on-half and 42.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by mainstream and photonics.
In photonics, we saw customers ramping up production of high-speed optical transceivers for 800G and beyond. In mainstream, the group business experienced some recovery from traditional applications, such as consumer, industrial, and automotive EVs.
Looking at our gross margin, its growth was driven mainly by SMT in Q2. Finally, we are pleased to report that our revenue and adjusted EPS beat consensus in Q2.
Now, let's look at the group business highlights. First, let's start with advanced packaging.
This remains a strong growth engine for us in the first half with AP revenue growing 17% year-on-year and contributing 30% of group revenue. TCB, SMT high precision, and photonic solutions were the largest contributors within the AP portfolio.
In TCB, we expect TAM to expand beyond US$1.6 billion by 2028 due to growing AI investments and increasing packaging intensity, driving greater demand for TCB solutions. In logic, order momentum for group's C2S solutions remains strong.
This was supported by repeat orders for larger-compound die TCB tools from OSAT partners of the leading advanced logic customer. In July 2026, the group received new bulk orders for more than 50 C2S TCB tools from OSAT customers.
In C2W, we secured a bulk order in Q2 2026 from a leading global IDM for advanced CPUs to support client computing and AI inferencing. We also delivered ultra-fine-pitch TCB tools to the leading advanced logic customer.
In memory, the group continued to secure repeat orders from HBM manufacturers. However, the timing of some customers' new tool purchase decisions remains dependent on HBM4 product rollout schedules.
The group also entered into an exclusive joint evaluation program with a key memory player to establish its technology as the preferred production standard. Next, panel-level packaging is emerging as potential growth driver for ASMPT as the industry seeks to improve throughput, scalability, and cost efficiency.
Beyond TCB, we saw strong performance from our photonics solutions. Customers are ramping up production of high-speed optical transceivers for 800G and beyond as demand accelerates for bandwidth-intensive, low-latency AI workloads.
As a result, Semi's pluggable optical transceiver solutions revenue almost tripled year-on-year to approximately US$75 million in first half 2026. The group is confident of further growth for the rest of 2026.
In co-packaged optics or CPO, the group continued to deepen its engagement with multiple leading global CPO players, positioning well to gain market share as CPO adoption accelerates. The group offers the most comprehensive range of CPO solutions spanning ultra-high-precision photonics, TCB, and hybrid bonding.
I will also elaborate more on this in the next slide. Our Semi mainstream business experienced significant growth supported by higher utilization at leading IDMs due to improving demand for power management requirements for AI data centers and industrial applications.
In China, revenue and bookings were particularly strong with wire bonding and die bonding tool demand supported by ongoing AI infrastructure expansion and high OSAT utilization. Our SMT bookings hit record highs for Q2 and first half of 2026.
AI servers continue to be a significant source of demand with accelerated adoption of SMT high-flex, high-force solution for large format board assembly. Finally, beyond AI applications, I'm pleased to share that the group's mainstream business also experienced some recovery from traditional end applications, such as consumer devices, industrial systems, and automotive EVs in China.
Let me now turn to photonics. As shown on this slide, we have built a strong position across the entire photonics value chain, extending from pluggable optical transceivers to CPO.
Our comprehensive portfolio spans SMT, advanced packaging, and ultra-high-precision photonics assembly tools. In the current optical transceiver market, as shown on the left-hand side of the slide, ASMPT supports multiple critical assembly steps.
Our SMT placement solutions are used for digital signal processor and passive components attach. Our high-end photonics and [AEMCA?]
solutions enable precise placement of transmitters, receivers, chips on submount, and optical accessories. Our solutions can deliver placement accuracy down to sub-micron level, a key technological differentiator.
Looking ahead, the industry is transitioning towards CPO solutions to address increasing bandwidth and power efficiency and latency requirements of AI infrastructure. ASMPT is well-positioned in several key assembly steps.
As you can see from the right-hand side of the slide, these include EIC on PIC integration through hybrid bonding and TCB solutions, optical engine assembly using flip chip mass reflow solutions, and fiber attach unit and microlens assembly enabled by our [AEMCA?] solutions.
We are excited about the potential in photonics, which represents another important growth factor for ASMPT. With these highlights, let me now hand the time over to Katie, who will walk you through our group segment and financial performance.
Katie Xu
Thank you, Robin. Good morning, good evening, everyone.
Let me take you through the group's financial performance. I would like to reiterate that, unless otherwise specified, the numbers I'll be referring to today are for the group's continuing operations only, with adjustments made under non-HKFRS measures.
This slide covers our financial results for the first half of 2026. The group delivered revenue of 1.14 billion U.S.
dollars in the first half of 2026, representing an increase of 18.9% half-on-half and 42.5% year-on-year, driven by Semi and SMT. Group bookings reached 1.63 billion U.S.
dollars, representing growth of 68.1% half-on-half and 85.1% year-on-year. Both SMT and Semi registered significantly higher bookings during the period.
Book-to-bill was 1.43, the highest since the first half of 2021. In the first half of 2026, group adjusted gross margin was 41.2%.
This was 441 basis points higher half-on-half and 86 basis points higher year-on-year, driven by better gross margin from both Semi and SMT. Group adjusted operating expenditures was 2.42 billion Hong Kong dollars, up 2.4% half-on-half due to higher volume.
It was also up 15.4% year-on-year due to higher volume, unfavorable FX impact, and strategic infrastructure R&D investments as we announced at the beginning of the year. Both adjusted operating profit and net profit improved half-on-half and year-on-year due to higher revenue and operating leverage.
In the second quarter, we delivered revenue of 630.0 million U.S. dollars, which exceeded the upper end of our guidance.
It grew by 24.4% Q-on-Q and 52.1% year-on-year, driven by both Semi and SMT. Group Q2 bookings were 903.6 million U.S.
dollars, up 24.8% Q-on-Q and 97.6% year-on-year, significantly better than anticipated for both Semi and SMT. In particular, SMT's bookings came in much stronger despite a high base effect in Q1.
Group Q2 adjusted gross margin was 42.5%, up 302 basis points Q-on-Q and 284 basis points year-on-year. Group Q2 adjusted operating profit was 847.0 million Hong Kong dollars, up 114.1% Q-on-Q and 268.8% year-on-year, due to higher gross margin and operating leverage.
Group's adjusted net profit was 637.5 million Hong Kong dollars, up 90.2% Q-on-Q and 253.9% year-on-year, due to higher operating profit. Adjusted earnings per share was 1 Hong Kong dollar and 53 cents.
Moving on to the Semiconductor Solutions segment for the second quarter, Semi delivered revenue of 369.1 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 34.9% Q-on-Q and 56.1% year-on-year.
Q-on-Q and year-on-year growth were driven by photonics for AI-related applications and wire and die bonders for both AI and consumer-related applications. Semi Q2 bookings were 428.1 million U.S.
dollars, the highest since Q1 2022. Bookings grew by 39.0% Q-on-Q due to wire and die bonders and photonics, and up 125.9% year-on-year due to wire and die bonders, photonics, and TCB.
Semi's book-to-bill ratio in Q2 was 1.16, which has continued to expand for the past four quarters. Q2 adjusted margin for Semi came in at 46.5%, up 10 basis points Q-on-Q and 150 basis points year-on-year.
Q-on-Q increase was due to higher volume, offset by product mix, while year-on-year increase was largely due to higher volume. Adjusted segment profit was 603.2 million Hong Kong dollars in Q2, up 94.9% Q-on-Q and 170.1% year-on-year, due to higher adjusted gross profit and operating leverage.
Next, let me move to the SMT Solutions segment performance for the second quarter of 2026. SMT delivered strong Q2 revenue of 260.9 million U.S.
dollars, up 12.1% Q-on-Q and 46.9% year-on-year. It achieved record bookings of 475.4 million U.S.
dollars, up 14.3% Q-on-Q and 77.6% year-on-year. Both revenue and bookings growth were largely driven by strong demand from AI servers.
Q2 SMT adjusted gross margin was 36.8%, up 551 basis points Q-on-Q and 429 basis points year-on-year, the highest since Q1 2024. Q-on-Q increase was due to favorable product mix and a higher volume, while year-on-year increase was largely due to higher volume.
Adjusted segment profit was 284.8 million Hong Kong dollars in Q2 2026, up 100.8% Q-on-Q and 386.1% year-on-year, due to higher gross profit and operating leverage. Now, this slide highlights ASMPT's revenue breakdown by end markets.
The computer end market was the largest contributor to group revenue at approximately 33%, up significantly from around 10% in 2024, driven mainly by SMT solutions, TCB, and photonics applications. Please note that photonics applications were reclassified from communications end market to the computer end market for both first half of 2026 and first half of 2025, reflecting the increasing alignment with AI-related applications.
The consumer end market was the second largest contributor to group revenue at approximately 18%, mainly from group's traditional mainstream business. The automotive end market contributed almost 12% to group's revenue.
Revenue growth was driven by EVs in China, while automotive for the rest of the world remained soft. The communication end market contributed around 10% to group revenue, mainly coming from high-end smartphone-related applications.
Lastly, the industrial end market revenue contribution was up marginally from 8% to 9% due to gradual recovery in industrial activity. Now, as you can see from this slide, we are a truly global business, partnering with customers across all major regions.
China remained the largest market, contributing 42% of group revenue in first half 2026, driven by wire and die bonders, while share of revenue from Asia outside China declined from 37.9% to 36.2%. Share of revenue from both Europe and Americas declined year-on-year from 23.7% in first half 2025 to 21.3% in first half 2026.
The group continued to maintain a low customer concentration risk, with the top five customers representing approximately 19% of total revenue in first half 2026. We have an existing dividend policy of distributing about 50% of the profits as dividend.
For the first half of 2026, with adjusted EPS at 1 Hong Kong dollar and 94 cents for continuing and discontinued operations, the board has recommended an interim dividend of 97 cents per share. With that, let me now pass the time back to Robin for next quarter's revenue guidance.
Robin Ng
Thank you, Katie. Let me now turn to our Q3 2026 revenue guidance.
The group expects Q3 2026 revenue to be in the range of US$630 million and US$690 million. At midpoint, this represents an increase of 4.8% Q-on-Q and 46.3% year-on-year, exceeding current market consensus despite longer lead times for certain materials.
Following a very strong Q2, the group still expects Q3 2026 booking to grow by a high-single-digit percentage sequentially, mainly driven by TCB and photonics. The proliferation of AI will continue to drive structural demand for advanced AI applications and computing needs, benefiting the group's products.
Our AP solutions are able to address complex technical requirements across the AI value chain, while our mainstream solutions can support the demands of extensive AI infrastructure buildout. Beyond AI applications, we also see continued demand for some traditional mainstream applications.
The group remains confident of revenue growth across both Semi and SMT in 2026 despite longer lead times, as mentioned above, and customers' dynamic AI product rollout schedules. This concludes our second quarter and the first half of 2026 presentation.
Thank you, and we're now ready for Q&A. Let me pass the time back to Ben to facilitate.
Ben Poh
Thank you, Robin. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll now begin the Q&A session.
To ask a question, please click raise hand on Zoom, and I will request you to unmute. Please limit yourself to two questions each time.
May I request Gokul to unmute and raise your question?
Hi. Good morning.
Thanks, Ben. Thanks, Robin, for your leadership and good luck in your retirement.
Maybe first question on TCB. It looked like memory TCB shipments are quite slow in first half of the year just looking at your Korea revenue momentum is down quite a bit year-on-year.
Could you talk a little bit about when are we expecting the memory TCB shipments to really start picking up meaningfully, especially given the order status seems to be still quite good? Feels like it is very much timing kind of a gap.
Is that the main driver for a much stronger Q3 kind of momentum? Also on TCB, the 50 chip-to-substrate orders from OSATs that you highlighted, could we also talk a little bit about the delivery schedule for these 50 tools?
How quickly do you expect to recognize them in revenue?
Robin Ng
Thank you, Gokul, for your well wishes as well. Thank you very much.
I think your first question is on memory, okay, and also follow-up: when to expect TCB memory to pick up since the orders looked muted, okay. Now, let me answer your first question first.
Now, if you look at the industry as a whole, and according to what's out there in the market, the reports that are out there by the industry experts, it seems that HBM3E continues to be able to meet current requirements for a GPU packaging. We also understand from this report that customers are also taking a little bit more time to make upgraded HBM4 technical specifications.
Now, this obviously has implications on the product rollout schedules, which we also highlighted in our outlook as well, and definitely has an impact on customers' purchase decisions for HBM TCB tools. Having said that, from our own perspective, we continue to secure repeat orders from HBM manufacturers.
Our installed tools with one of these customers, I'm also pleased to announce that they've also been deployed to HBM4 8-high in high-volume manufacturing. At the same time, we also have in low-volume manufacturing with multiple memory makers for HBM4 with our tools as well.
Last but not least, we also announced in the MD&A that we have entered into a JEP with a key memory player for advanced memory packaging, particularly for HBM5. These are some of the developments on our side that are very promising for HBM business.
I think your second question is on TCB orders, right?
The C2S orders that you secured, the 50 tools, any delivery schedule?
Robin Ng
Gokul, I think you understand that for a TCB tool, typically the lead time are a bit longer than the traditional tools, not counting the longer lead time for certain materials as well. We believe majority of these tools will be delivered probably in the first quarter 2027.
Some of these tools may be delivered in the second half of 2026. I think the customers are trying to pull in, and we are trying to meet their delivery commitment as much as possible.
Got it. That's clear.
Thank you very much. Second question is on the photonics side, which has been very strong growth from pluggables.
Can you talk a little bit about, as we transition to CPO, how much value capture does ASMPT have? Let's say, it's not one-on-one in terms of the comparison, but just to understand, when we transition from, let's say, a pluggable-based solutions to a CPO-based solution, how much of a value increase does ASMPT expect given a lot of it is much more finer pitch?
At the same time, hybrid bonding is probably one area where you're a little bit kind of behind the market leader. Just wanted to understand how that value capture expands as you go from pluggables to CPO.
Also, are you starting to see CPO-related orders also increase, or most of the upside that you're seeing right now is coming primarily from pluggable transceivers?
Robin Ng
Let me answer probably the last bit of your question. CPO is still small at this point in time.
We believe from the packaging equipment standpoint, probably the inflection point will be somewhere between 2027, '28, more likely '28 for CPO. Most of the volume that we are experiencing right now till then are what we call pluggable optical transceivers, which we also have a very strong position over there.
Now, in terms of CPO, we are confident, obviously. [AEMCA?]
is very well positioned for CPO market. At the same time, even now as we speak, we are deeply engaging very key customers in the CPO side of things.
When CPO picks up, as I said, probably '27, '28, I think we're well positioned to capture the market going forward. Now, in terms of solution, as we took some pain to show you what we can participate on the CPO side of things, a number of applications, very key applications there, which our solutions are well-suited for those high-precision placement kind of a bonding requirements by our customers.
I think overall, we're confident of catching a good market share of CPO market.
Ben Poh
Thank you, Gokul, for your questions. I'll move on to the next raised hand.
I would like to request Sunny. Could you please unmute yourself and raise your question?
Sure. Thank you.
Good morning. Thank you, Robin, for all your leadership and contributions over the last few years.
Wishing you all the best and exciting new chapter ahead. My first question will be on the TCB orders as well.
Want to double check on the current outlook for chip-on-wafer, especially for the leading-edge foundry side. How should we think about the visibility for the foundry client in terms of their migration to TCB for chip-to-wafer from here?
Also, how should we think about the competition for the opportunity?
Robin Ng
Thank you, Sunny. I think we said quite a few times that the way we view chip-to-wafer in terms of opportunities, for current year, we have been saying that chip-to-wafer, demand will be still lower than chip-to-substrate.
We have started to ship already chip-to-wafer solutions with AOR to the leading advanced logic customer. Now, the way we see chip-to-wafer development is this: now it all depends on the next generation of GPUs.
We believe that the next generation of GPUs may go into chiplets. That's where our TCB tools for chip-to-wafer will be deployed, because when it comes to chiplet integration, the die structure are very different from a SoC.
For that reason, a chiplet kind of architecture require a TCB for chip-to-wafer solutions. We are looking forward for that to happen.
Then when that happens, chip-to-wafer solutions, or TCB solutions, will start to pick up in a more meaningful manner.
Thank you, Robin. Sorry, let me quickly follow up if that's okay.
In terms of the potential opportunity from GPU migrating to chiplet, do you think that opportunity may still come through in 2027, or do you think based on the current engagement with the client, that may come a bit later?
Robin Ng
They have been using our tools for testing, qualification, and so forth. We believe that is a certain amount of urgency to start to use our chip-to-wafer tools.
We said before, I think 2027 could be the year whereby we see more demand for chip-to-wafer tools compared to 2026. Got it.
Thank you.
My second question would be on China. China obviously grew a lot in the last 12 months by about 50% year-over-year for first half of this year.
Wonder what's the key drivers for the strong growth? Is it still mostly coming from traditional, or we start to see a good progression on the advanced packaging side?
In the coming maybe 2 to 3 years, how should we think about the overall potential from China for advanced packaging given their very aggressive investment for leading-edge logic and memory? Do you think potentially China could be maybe larger than foundry, IDM, and memory overall?
Now,
Robin Ng
let me talk about the mainstream first. Yes, I think if you look at the MD&A, we have been saying that the traditional mainstream business we're seeing recovery momentum.
These are mainly coming from wire bond, die bond, the traditional wire bond and die bond coming from China side. On the end-application side for this tools, they are typically consumer driven, EVs, and so forth, right?
For sure, the China mainstream business is on the recovery path. Now, in terms of advanced packaging, they are still lower than the rest of the world, but we believe that this momentum in China will continue to increase over time.
Yeah.
Got it. Thank you.
Ben Poh
Thank you, Sunny. Next I'm seeing Daisy's hand is raised, I would like to request Daisy to unmute and raise a question.
Thank you. Congrats on the strong result.
Robin, wish you all the best for your retirement. My first question is regarding hybrid bonding.
You mentioned that hybrid bonding has moved to the sampling stage. Could you share us with possible timing that when you expect that it could be qualified for the memory and logic customers respectively?
Yeah.
Robin Ng
Thanks, Daisy. Now, hybrid bonding, yes, we are confident of our hybrid bonding solution.
As as we have highlighted before, we believe our second-gen generation HB solutions are are very competitive, I would say, in terms of certain key metrics like alignment, precision, bonding accuracy, footprint, efficiency, and also UPH. We still of the view that hybrid bonding inflection point could be still a from our perspective, of course, a couple of years down the road, maybe '29, '30 kind of time frame or even '31.
It's so it's very dynamic, we can't really put a a definitive a time frame on on hybrid bonding yet. What we do know on the flip side for TCB is that there is a possibility that the the the chip the memory chip height, the stack height for HBM, there's a possibility that it could increase from the current 775 micron to beyond 900, for example.
If that happens, then TCB could be the could be TCB use could be extended for HBM packaging beyond HBM4 into HBM5, right? That's that's another factor to take into account the deployment of a hybrid bonding solution.
Now, as far as hybrid bonding solution for ourselves, this year we are we're definitely trying to to break into the top hybrid bonding customers. If we can break into that space, I think that will position us position us well for hybrid hybrid bonding solution for the future.
Yes, indeed, we are doing sampling for both logic customers as well as HBM customer for our hybrid bonding solution. Yeah.
Thank you, Robin. My second question is for Katie.
This quarter we see that both SMT and Semi solution, their margin improved, and we all know that this year the both OSAT and the PCB companies CapEx is very strong. Again, how should we think about the normalized margin and also how do you see this CapEx spending momentum?
Will it continue into 2027?
Katie Xu
Daisy, I think maybe we'll break your questions in two pieces. One is on gross margin, the other one is also I think on the top line side due to OSAT CapEx.
Let me answer the first question. In terms of gross margin, we announced Q2 already, you guys can see the numbers.
Looking ahead, right, looking to Q3, we believe the gross margin will actually remain quite stable for both businesses. The Semi side, it will continue to benefit from the favorable product mix, right, of TCBs, photonics, high-end DAs, etc., while it will be moderated by wire bond mix.
Right, so that's Semi side. On SMT side, it will continue to be in mid-30s in terms of gross margin at this volume level.
Right, I think put these two together, as we look out Q3 and maybe even a few quarters out that the overall, right, the group margin could stay above 40%. Okay?
The next question, I think you also asked about the CapEx spend to top line impact, right?
CapEx.
Katie Xu
I'll start, and if Robin you have anything to add. I think overall, yes, the CapEx spend is mirrors strong, and we definitely have experienced that in our actual results, and I think going forward, this momentum will continue to the line of sight that we have for the remaining of the year.
I think we touched on that in our sort of the outlook in the MD&A.
Robin Ng
Yeah.
Katie Xu
Yes. I think that's it, I think.
Robin Ng
Okay.
Ben Poh
Thank you, Daisy. Yeah.
Next, I would like Lubin to unmute to raise your question.
Hello. Can you hear me?
Yes,
Robin Ng
go ahead.
My first question is about the pluggable optical transceivers. You mentioned that your revenue tripled in the first half this year.
How we should look the sustainability or the potential of this business? Will it become even bigger business versus your other like the TCB or other high-potential business?
Thank you.
Robin Ng
Lubin, can you hear me?
Yes, please.
Robin Ng
Yeah. Yes, I think photonics is really interesting.
If we look at the Q3 booking, the layout that is going to be increased by high single digit Q-on-Q, part of the increase, I would say, is also due to photonics. We believe our photonics booking in Q3 will continue to increase sequentially as well, right?
I think it's whether it's sustainable. I think this probably give you an idea that we believe that photonics business in the second half, or the demand in the second half, will be growing as well relative to the first half.
Now, optical transceiver definitely is a bigger portion right now for photonics. As I mentioned earlier, CPO is a smaller portion.
In terms of TAM, I think you asked something about TAM, right? Let me give you some color on the TAM.
I think for this call, we'd rather not focus on a specific TAM number today. As I said, I want to emphasize that we continue to see a meaningful growth runway in both pluggable and CPO photonics in years to come.
I think more importantly, I think the opportunity for us is really expanding as customer move towards more advanced optical architecture. We strongly believe that ASMPT really can participate across several critical process steps in that particular value chain.
Now, I also want to be mindful and also want to be careful about drawing direct comparison with TCB at this stage for photonics. As you're aware, TCB is a much more mature market with much more clearer visibility in terms of adoption and market sizing.
Photonics, particularly for CPO, is still in an earlier stage of development. I think what's important for us today is that we continue to see strong customer engagement on our part.
We see increasing adoption activities, our tools, and we see a lot of opportunity across multiple process step where ASMPT can participate both in the CPO market as well as in the optical transceiver market. Thank you.
Okay. Also the second question is about your third quarter guidance.
You mentioned that you see strong growth, sustained growth despite the long lead time of certain material. Number one is what are the supply chain issue you are facing?
It seems to be the third quarter the guidance is slightly slower than the booking is slightly slower than the second quarter booking growth. What's the reason?
Is it because you are facing some supply chain issues, or what's the growth coming from? Is coming from mainly the SMT or coming from the Semi?
Thank you.
Robin Ng
Good. Let me answer the long lead time question.
Now, the rapid industry growth has certainly led to supply chain tightness, resulting in longer lead times for certain materials, which affected both the SMT as well as Semi operation. I think you allude to also probably the longer conversion time from bookings to billing.
Definitely, longer lead time is one factor. Now, the other factor that you might have to take into consideration is that the increase in our Semi product mix towards advanced packaging also contributed to the elevated order-to-billing conversion time, because AP has relatively longer manufacturing lead time compared to our traditional business.
For this couple of reasons, the group's booking conversion time is estimated to be a little bit more extended than before, to be around 6 to 9 months roughly, depending on products itself.
Ben Poh
Okay. Thank you, Lubin, for the questions.
Next, I would like Kevin. Kevin, could you unmute and raise your question?
Great. Thank you, management, for taking my question.
Thank you, Robin, especially for your past leaderships. Wish you all the best in your upcoming retirement.
Now, my first question would be on the TCB TAM. I think in the announcement, we mentioned that our TAM right now we're expecting that could go beyond $1.6 billion by 2028.
I was wondering what do the management see this upside coming from? Would it be more coming from memory or logic?
Especially given right now there are some growing market concern over the memory outlook. What do we see any changes for memory sector driving the TCB outlook?
Would it be any additional customer coming in?
Robin Ng
Thanks, Kevin, for your well wishes as well. Now, yes, I will not give you any specific because this is a half year.
We aim to provide an official update at this year's full year earnings call on the TCB TAM. However, having said that, let me try to provide some color on the TCB TAM situation.
Yes, indeed we expect our TCB TAM to expand beyond US$1.6 billion by 2028. That was the last time we dish out this number during our Q4 earnings call.
Now, we believe this expansion of TCB TAM by 2028 will come from several areas. First, there will be increased data center CPU demands to support the growth in AI inferencing needs, in particular maybe agentic AI down the road.
The emergence of this inferencing or agentic AI is driving a shift from GPU-centric design towards a more balanced CPU to GPU configurations, basically increasing CPU content per AI workload. As agentic AIs requires more autonomous planning, continuous background processing, and so forth, and execution of complex local models, we believe the demand for high-performance CPUs and greater memory bandwidth and capacity is accelerating, right?
This will contribute to more TCB demand down the road, basically with the increase in the number of CPU that need to be packaged. Now, I think alongside this, you can imagine we believe that HBM volume will also increase alongside this kind of development.
Now, the second reason we can think of is we see increased logic packaging requirements for CoWoS as well in the years to come. Last but not least, panel packaging, including embedded and even elevated bridge die kind of solutions where we are participating, will also contribute to the increase in TAM for TCB by 2028.
Last but not least, we also believe this expansion is expected in spite of the industry-wide phenomena from continuous improvement in HBM TCB UPH. I think this sort of give you a color, Kevin, of how and why we're confident that the TCB TAM will expand beyond US$1.6 billion by the time we hit 2028.
All right. Thank you, Robin.
My second question actually I want to go back to hybrid bonding. Just wondering for our Gen 2 tool, is it mainly for wafer-to-wafer or die-to-wafer capable?
Going forward, I know that I think we are expecting inflection point probably sometime 2029 or 20 or 30. What do we see could drive the demand higher if that would pull in the demand a bit earlier than the time we expected?
Robin Ng
Yeah. Now, is die-to-wafer, if we're talking about wafer-to-wafer bonding, we do not have the triple-D solution in-house.
Now,
Robin Ng
in terms of inflection point, it all depends, because the other side of the coin is really TCB, right? The TCB, in terms of technology, we have been advancing TCB technology together with our customers as well.
It depends how TCB advance and also the market development in terms of HBM in particular. Now, as I mentioned earlier, for HBM, if there is a relaxation of the stack height, then there's possibility that we could continue to extend the use of TCB beyond HBM4 into HBM5, and that potentially can push back the adoption of hybrid bonding for HBM stacking.
This is, of course, our view. I hope I sort of give you an indication why we continue to say that we believe the HB adoption will probably come in that kind of time frame.
Ben Poh
Thank you, Kevin. Thank you for your questions.
Next, I would like to invite Tracy. Tracy, please unmute to raise your question.
Thanks for the opportunity to raise questions, and thanks, Robin, for your leadership and wish you all the best ahead. My first question is about TCB.
In China market, we see both advanced logic and memory capacities are having fast expansion. Just wondering what is the revenue or the scale of your TCB business in China currently, and how you expect its growth?
Thank you.
Robin Ng
Yeah. Tracy.
I think I mentioned earlier, but it's probably worth repeating as well. Yes, I think China, in terms of advanced packaging, China is relatively smaller than the rest of the world at this point in time.
We believe with all the advancement in terms of advanced packaging in China, we believe that the trajectory for AP in China looks interesting in the years to come.
I got it. Maybe my second question is about your bookings guidance for the next quarters.
Are there any split between Semi business and SMT business for your bookings outlook?
Robin Ng
For Q3, I hope you mean Q3, right? Bookings for Q3 this year is expected to grow as highlighted by high single digit sequentially, mainly driven by Semi products, TCB, and photonics in particular.
Of course, we just announced this morning that we won more than 50 of more than 50 TCB C2S tools from OSAT customers, and that will certainly contribute to the increase in terms of Q3 bookings Q-on-Q for Semi. Now, SMT bookings, on the other hand, are likely to moderate or decrease Q-on-Q due to a very high base effect in Q2.
Certainly, we still believe it's at an elevated level. On the year-on-year basis, SMT booking would still be higher, driven by strong demand from AI servers.
Ben Poh
Okay. Thank you, Tracy.
There's no more raised hand. I think that will be it for our Q&A session.
I will pass the time back to Robin for his closing remarks.
Robin Ng
Thank you all for all your well wishes. Before we end, let me capture some key takeaway from today's discussion.
First, ASMPT continue to experience strong revenue and bookings driven by AI and traditional mainstream application. Following a very strong Q2 financial performance, Q3 dynamic revenue guidance is above market consensus.
Second, advanced packaging remains a strong growth engine for us with TCB, SMT high precision, and photonic solutions the largest contributor within the AP portfolio. In particular, photonics represents a compelling growth opportunity for us.
Overall, we are well-positioned as we enter second half of 2026. Ladies and gentlemen, with that, this concludes my last earnings call at ASMPT.
This is my 25th such call, and it feels like a nice number to sign off. As I enter the next phase of my personal journey in a couple of weeks, I hope that you will continue to support ASMPT.
I look forward to catching up with some of you in a smaller group meetings on this trip. Thank you once again for joining us today.
Goodbye.
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