Ballys Intralot S.A.

Ballys Intralot S.A.

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Nov 27Next Earn

Q3 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptNovember 27, 2025

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Nina, your Chorus Call operator.

Welcome, and thank you for joining the INTRALOT conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the third-quarter 2025 financial results. All participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded.

The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing * and 0 on your telephone.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Robeson Reeves, CEO of INTRALOT.

Mr. Reeves, you may now proceed.

Robeson Reeves

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for joining us today for the Q3 results of INTRALOT.

The transaction completed in October 2025 to bring together Bally's International Interactive and INTRALOT. As you will have seen, INTRALOT has delivered strong third-quarter results despite FX headwinds.

Bally's International Interactive has delivered around €548 million in revenue with a hefty 43% adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3, which is on track with our stated guidance. Full-year 2025 pro forma of the two entities annualized is more than €1 billion in revenues and €435 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a combined margin of 40.65%, which is in line with previously stated full-year guidance.

As you are aware, yesterday, the UK government revised gaming taxes by increasing remote gaming duty from 21% to 40% beginning in April '26. This was higher than anticipated, but we are going to follow the aggressive mitigation scenarios.

We still intend to deliver growth in wagers accepted, which, combined with generosity reductions, marketing reductions, and accelerated synergies, will limit the tax impact. However, this will delay our growth plan by one year and impact our total EBITDA by 4% versus 2025 guidance.

I'll ask you all to refer to page four of the presentation as I want to walk you through the bridge. If you look at 2025 EBITDA, I will highlight our mitigations for '26.

I start with €435 million, as we've provided that already in our guidance. €315 million of EBITDA is from the Bally's International Interactive segment.

The UK online EBITDA contributes €275 million with revenue of €660 million. The remote gaming duty increase from 21% to 40% has a direct impact of €95 million when applied to 2025.

That gives us a starting point of €180 million of EBITDA from the UK before mitigation. I want to break down the mitigations.

As I said, we will look at generosity reductions, marketing reductions such as advertising, and cost-cutting, which amounts to €35 million. In addition, there'll be €15 million from the transaction synergies, which will deliver a total of €50 million.

Our forecast organic growth is expected to be €34 million from all markets, including INTRALOT. In summary, mitigations are €35 million, which is 28% of full-year tax impact, plus the €15 million of transaction synergies, and growth of €34 million.

We end up with €435 million minus €95 million for tax, which equals €340 million. We add €34 million for growth and €35 million in mitigations, plus €15 million for the transaction synergies, leaving €424 million, which is a 4% impact versus 2025.

Another way to look at it is €810 million of turnover from Bally's International Interactive with an EBITDA margin of circa 30% is €245 million, plus €35 million of mitigation, €15 million of synergies, and €125 million from INTRALOT gives €420 million. We believe these estimates are conservative.

A significant market consolidation is possible. The full-year tax impact will be higher by €30 million as this €90 million is a nine-month impact.

We will also realize €25 million more in '27 in committed INTRALOT synergies, and we believe that generosity and marketing will have further flex. Our growth in sports, expansion into new markets, and the full realization of synergies will alleviate tax-rate pressures in the UK from a full year of tax increase in '27.

In 2027, increased tax for online sports betting will be introduced and drive further consolidation. Such tax increases have happened periodically in our markets and historically have highlighted vulnerability for others, leading to market consolidation and market share growth for companies like Bally's, who have higher margins than other peers.

We achieved, in Q3, a 43% EBITDA margin, whilst most others are below 25%. Hence, there'll be other operators that cannot adapt to this change due to lower margins and lack of scale.

This will result in fewer players, and I welcome a less competitive environment. The point of the combined Bally's International Interactive and INTRALOT was to create a platform for both organic opportunities and accretive acquisitions.

We believe this improves our prospects. I do understand that the UK government has a need for revenue.

My message is I will continue to embrace public-private partnership and regulations, but that the UKGC will have to be extra vigilant to police offshore gambling given that the incentive to do so has increased. The UKGC has been progressive with consideration to grow into areas such as crypto and prediction markets to lead and expand the market rather than zero-sum reallocation.

I love our business, and we have been through such experiences over the years and will continue to adapt. I know that we will be very strong in the medium term.

I intend to make a recommendation to the EGM, obviously subject to board approval, to allow the company to make share buybacks. Now, I'll hand over to Andreas to walk you through Q3.

Andreas Chrysos

Thank you, Robeson. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

On October 8th, INTRALOT completed the acquisition of the interactive international segment of Bally's for a total transaction value of €2.7 billion: €1.53 billion in cash and €1.136 billion in newly issued shares of INTRALOT. Through this transaction, Bally's Corporation became the largest shareholder of INTRALOT with a 58% participation.

The closing followed the successful completion of INTRALOT's comprehensive acquisition financing and satisfaction of required shareholder, regulatory, and other customary closing conditions. Moving on to the slide number five of the presentation, on the left-hand side, we see the pro forma capitalization table post-closing, including INTRALOT's financing package comprising of €900 million aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes due 2031, €600 million fixed-rate notes and €300 million floating-rate notes.

Secondly, a £400 million, €460 million equivalent, a six-year senior secured term loan with institutional lenders, and a €200 million four-year amortizing term loan provided by a consortium of Greek banks. To finance the transaction, INTRALOT also raised €429 million through the issuance of 390 million new ordinary shares at a price per share of €1.1.

Total funds raised were used to pay the consideration, to repay old outstanding debt of INTRALOT, except for the retail bond of €130 million which survived the transaction, plus the transaction fees. Following all these financing activities, the pro forma funded net debt stands at around €1.5 billion, and the total enterprise value at around €3.2 billion.

The new combined entity, on the right side of the slide, on a pro forma basis for the nine-month period, would have a total revenue of €790 million, an adjusted EBITDA of €320 million, and a robust EBITDA margin of around 41%, and a healthy EBITDA minus CapEx metric of around €280 million. Now, moving to the nine-month of 2025 financial results of INTRALOT and turning to page number six, we see the revenue analysis.

Highlights here is the contribution of the Americas of around 60% and the B2B/B2G having the majority of the INTRALOT business with more than 95%. Turning to the next page, number seven, where we focus more on the revenue line, the key takeaway is that the group showed a stable underlying performance in constant currency terms, with FX headwinds, however, in all markets which functional currency is different than the euro, leading to an overall reported deficit of 2.9 times, or €7.3 million, with the majority of the impact coming from the markets of the United States and Turkey.

If we move on to page number eight, we have the overall P&L performance for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year and for the third quarter. Revenue is lower by 2.9% for the year-to-date period and 11.8% for the third quarter, with negative FX being the major contributor of this variance, accompanied by a slower growth in Turkey and Argentina in the third quarter.

Same picture for the gross profit line. However, through efficient cost management, the group has managed to present an almost stable EBITDA performance for the nine-month period by maintaining the EBITDA margin at around 37%.

Net interest was substantially lower this year due to the scheduled repayments of the bank loans in Greece, the United States, and Turkey of around €25 million and lower interest rates due to both Euribor and SOFR lower levels compared to the 2024 respective period. Net income variance is attributed entirely to an accounting treatment in relation to the hyperinflation adjustments in Turkey, which had a positive effect in 2024 and a negative in 2025.

Turning to page number nine, the upper two graphs have been analyzed in the previous slide, and on the bottom-left graph, we see the operating cash flow, which was higher by €4 million as a result of favorable working capital movement and lower tax payments. CapEx in the nine months of 2025 was lower by €4.3 million compared to the respective period of last year, mostly due to the non-recurring license renewal payment in Turkey back in 2024, partially offset by higher US investment needs in the current period.

On the bottom-right, we see that the net debt and leverage ratio adjusted for the restricted cash, referring to debt servicing and repayments, was €299 million and 2.3 times, respectively, for the third quarter of 2025, better by €57 million and 0.4 times compared to 2024 year end. Turning to page number 10 and focusing on the adjusted net debt movement bridge from December 2024 through September 2025, we see that the contributors to the €57 million reduction have been the solid financial performance in the nine-month period, as evidenced by the generation of €48.1 million in free cash flow, accompanied by a positive movement in debt, primarily due to favorable foreign exchange effect in our US-denominated debt, while the net interest payments stood at €21.9 million.

Lastly, on page number 11, we see the contributions per region and to our revenues and EBITDA. Revenue was almost stable in all jurisdictions, apart from Turkey, presented in the rest of the world, performing, however, better in terms of EBITDA in this region as well due to efficient cost management counterbalancing the top-line deficit.

EBITDA in all other jurisdictions at almost equal levels year over year, with North America performing better. At this stage, the presentation of the results for the nine months of 2025 is finished, and I hand over to Robeson for his closing statement.

Robeson Reeves

Thank you all for joining us today. This tax change is higher than anticipated, but we'll aggressively deliver our mitigation scenarios as I've already described to you.

I've said that these changes lead to opportunities. The way I look at it is the strong don't only survive this, they get much stronger.

I'd like to hand back to the operator so we can open the line for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press * followed by 1 on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press * and 2.

Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press * and 1 at this time.

One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Gugalia Fani with Euroxx Securities.

Please go ahead.

Fani Gugalia

Hi, hello, and thank you for the presentation. Just two questions on our end.

You mentioned the launch of a share buyback program. I was wondering, is there any indication that the major shareholder would be looking to increase their stake in the company?

The second question is you provided outlook for 2026 and 2027, how you would be looking for the medium term? Would you expect that at some point in 2028, we would see the numbers that we were initially expecting as an EBITDA outlook?

Thank you.

Robeson Reeves

I'll take that. Thank you very much for your question.

With respect to share buyback, your question relates to do you expect the majority shareholder to increase their stake in INTRALOT?

Fani Gugalia

Yes, separately from the share buyback. Yeah.

Robeson Reeves

As I've said, I believe in this company, and Bally's Corporation will no doubt be looking to increase its stake in the company. If we see it as value, which we do, I've already described that today, we will be increasing our stake in the company.

With respect to your next question, as I said, this essentially delays our plan by a year, I still expect the same growth prospects for us. We just have to play catch-up against what has happened to us with the UK tax changes.

I do think this means that in the long term, you end up with a much more consolidated market in the UK, so that is protected. You make these mitigations, you're protected.

Our growth pathway is still there. Yes, it just changes the year by one.

It's just delayed us slightly. Thank you for your question.

Fani Gugalia

Brilliant. Thank you.

Thank you so much. That's all on our end.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Raman Narula with Principal Asset Management. Please go ahead.

Raman Narula

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just a couple from my side.

On the mitigations, just wondering if you could touch a bit more how much you're looking to flex sort of marketing and generosity spend? Is it your expectation that your competitors, given they're at lower margin, will sort of be forced to flex a lot more than you, and do you expect to be able to acquire a lot more customers by way of that?

How are you guys thinking about that?

Robeson Reeves

The way I look at it, so as we've already said, we've got synergies which we'd already been planning for and already starting to execute for '26 anyway. That leaves us with the remaining €35 million.

I view it as the generosity piece being essentially half, and then marketing being half again. We have already, and it tells you that this is a significant shock to the industry, seen people pull back from marketing.

We will judge it if we're going to chase more growth, which would always be my preference if we're getting the right returns. We can see already that there is substantial flex that we won't have to spend the same amount of marketing money to get the same growth.

If we see greater opportunity there, we'll make sure we accelerate the growth and increase our EBITDA margins once again. Just understand that the majority of operators have an EBITDA margin in the UK sub-25%, and many are sub-20% and in the teens.

This change wipes out all profitability and makes them loss-making.

Raman Narula

Thanks, that makes sense. Just as a segue into that, you've said that consolidation will be a direct consequence of this.

Other than the share buyback, will you be looking to opportunistically do any bolt-on acquisitions to further consolidate your share, or is there sort of focus solely on deleveraging in the medium to near term and delivering synergies as planned?

Robeson Reeves

I think we'll have to be opportunistic and see what opportunities arise in the market. This is obviously day one.

We do want to delever in the medium term and continue that deleveraging pathway. If there are great opportunities which in itself are deleveraging by if an operator essentially is loss-making and we can absorb that revenue, it depends what price we would have to pay.

We're looking at everything. I do already sense that consolidation is here, and growth will be driven by a few operators rather than many on the go-forward.

Raman Narula

Perfect, thanks. My next one, just on sports betting.

Just would be helpful to get a sense on how that's performing relative to the core sort of iCasino, and if you could give sort of growth rate at which that's been growing and what your assumption is going forward, that'd be helpful.

Robeson Reeves

Sports betting is a small percentage of our revenue in the UK, very very small. We actually have most of our revenue is in iGaming.

We are seeing acceleration there due to our sponsorship of Nottingham Forest. We expect our sports revenue to triple in the next year.

That was prior to these changes, we may be reviewing our product mix further anyway, obviously because of the tax differential between iGaming and sports in the year of 2026. I think there's quite a few levers to pull, but we are smaller in sports.

We can, I guess the narrative is, we're small in sports today, we'll grow it. We can mitigate this tax rate, even though we are heavily concentrated to the highest tax burden.

We can mitigate it better than others because our EBITDA margins are sitting already in excess of 10% to 15% percentage points higher than others.

Raman Narula

Understood. Just as a last one for me, maybe on just to help on modeling.

Is there some sort of scale-up assumption that you can disclose in order to get from NGR to sort of GGR? If you're unable to disclose, maybe it'd be helpful if you can comment on how the intensity of sort of bonuses and free spins that you guys give out to your consumers relative to sort of other competitors and in the market, that'd be helpful.

Robeson Reeves

I guess you can do the proxy based on our revenue sitting at 660 in '25, and understand that the tax impact over nine months would be €95 million. You can use that as a reverse proxy if you want to do it that way.

Raman Narula

Understood, thanks. That's all from me.

Robeson Reeves

Yeah.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Apostolidis Alex with LGT. Please go ahead.

Alex Apostolidis

Hi, good afternoon. Really appreciate you taking the time for this call.

I have three questions. I'll ask them in order.

The first one, just going off my colleague's question on slide four, €229 million is the new EBITDA you present for fiscal year '26, and this is prior to any growth. My question is, what gives you confidence that volumes will remain stable, let alone grow?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the Netherlands, we saw similar increases, and the impact there was volume pressure. First question is, why will volumes remain stable and not decline given the move to the black market potentially?

Robeson Reeves

Good question. The key things which drive growth in the black market, yes, one of the key factors is tax, the other factor is regulation.

Now, if you roll back and say before yesterday, we had our existing tax rate, and displacement to the black market wasn't happening. We can see that there's such a large long tail of operators in the UK market, there's approximately 1,000, right, who have substantially lower margins.

We believe that our current numbers and everything still points to the fact that we will continue our marketing spend. There is a reduction there, but we're seeing people already pulling back from auctions and advertising that we believe our growth will continue.

The regulatory balance with tax is on the edge. I won't deny that, and as you heard in my comments, I want to ensure that the UKGC focus on preventing the black market.

Having said that, in all of the numbers we're seeing already, our growth comes from, yes, new player acquisition, but also our existing players becoming more loyal. In historic presentations, you would have seen that over time, our player spends grow.

Now, if you think there's fewer players in the market, and people spread their spend across multiple operators, this will accelerate as well. We think that we'll gain more players because fewer people are bidding for the same traffic, but also we see further upside, which I haven't accounted for here, is in increased player spend because their spend is more concentrated amongst fewer operators than would have been previous.

Alex Apostolidis

No, thank you so much, very helpful. Just to confirm, in the Netherlands, what was the impact on volumes there on the legal market?

Because my understanding is we did see volume pressure, and quite significant volume pressure.

Robeson Reeves

In the Netherlands, if you look at the data, you'll see that the majority of players, the count of players, are within the regulated market. The pressures that came, and we've already had these pressures, by the way, on limiting spend of individuals, individual player spend, VIP spend, call it, gets displaced.

That has already occurred in the UK, very limited VIP spend. It's much more about the regular recreational player, which is exactly what we're built on.

We have a high-volume, lower-spend audience. Black market in Netherlands, over 50% of revenue, 90%-plus are playing in the regulated market.

It's about the VIP displacement. This has already occurred in the UK, and we are actually, when you look at the regulated market in the UK, we don't see further displacement from recreationals.

Our business model is based on recreationals. We already hold a stake limit of maximum £5 on a slot machine, £2 for under-25s on slots.

Our spending profile is much, much lower, with an average stake of 63p a spin on a slot machine.

Alex Apostolidis

Very clear, thank you. If I can just ask the other two questions together, in terms of CapEx guidance, you've given that to be low to mid-double digits for fiscal year '26 and 2027, but is it possible to provide a bit more disclosure on the exact level, which leads me to the last question, which is you renewed Arkansas, congratulations, and then on Illinois, Ohio, Australia, when do you expect decisions on those?

Expectations still to renew, and importantly, at similar or perhaps lower margins given competitive intensity in the US? Thank you for your time, really appreciate it.

Robeson Reeves

I'm going to hand that over to Nikos or Andreas.

Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos

Andreas, let me take the second part, and you talk about the numbers of CapEx. We do have a pipeline for which is going to materialize, the customers are going to take decisions rather soon, which has to do with the Ontario Lottery, the Maryland, that still is an active process and we're waiting to see what the next step is going to be, Minnesota, and also the VLT monitoring in OPAP that we are expecting a decision really soon, plus the VLT monitoring in Illinois that the submission date has moved to January 5th.

There is still also Texas that is going to issue an RFP in the first quarter, most probably, of next year, and some other smaller projects in Latin America and the rest of the world. On the three projects that you mentioned, first of all, Ohio, it is something that we have announced a year before that Scientific Games won, this is something that is going to run until 2027, mid-'27 for us.

On Australia in Victoria, we are in the middle of the bidding process for the licensing. On Illinois, both the PMA and the technology contract that we do have both expire in 2027.

Still, there is no movement on issuing any other speed RFP, either for one or for the other. I understand, based on what I hear from the legislation and what we read in the news, that there is a debate what is going to happen with the PMA, if the PMA is going to be continues as it is, if legislation is going to change.

Still, we are waiting to see what will happen there. My view is that according to the decision the state is going to take for the PMA, then they are going to decide when they are going to issue the RFP for the technology provider.

Andreas, can you please take the CapEx numbers for next year?

Chrysostomos Sfatos

Let me take this one. It's Chris here.

As we've mentioned, we have, on average, both companies combined, we estimate about €60 million of CapEx per annum average for renewals and normal course of business. On top of that, there may be spike years, and '26-'27 is one of those spike years, because our projects, especially in the United States, as they spread over 10 years.

They have the CapEx in the beginning and then a revenue share model. There is a first cycle of the project where you're trying to recover your investment in three, four years, and then in the second half of the project, you are generating all the cash.

If you have an extension, which is typically the case because these contracts extend to 15 years, that's even more cash generative. Now, '26 and '27 are years where we expect big spending in certain projects, as Nikos was mentioning.

The additional spending will be between €50 million and €80 million because we're spreading these investments over time. Of course, this will depend on the overall situation because these contracts may delay, the timeline may slide a little bit, but these '26 and '27 will be exceptional years.

We think we are in a very good situation to cover whatever CapEx we need.

Alex Apostolidis

Thank you. Just to make sure I heard the numbers, it's 60 million for maintenance, normal course of business CapEx, on top of the 5-0 to 8-0?

Chrysostomos Sfatos

Maintenance and renewals, on average. For example, the extension in Arkansas is part of the renewals, which is a much lighter CapEx case than if you win a tender from scratch.

On average, that's a €60 million, and then you have the spike years.

Alex Apostolidis

Thanks again.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Memishoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.

Osman Memisoglu

Hello, many thanks for this. Just going back to the top line for UK from 20 560 to 720, that does include market share gain, but the upside is from higher spend per customer.

Did I understand that correctly? Also, coming back to the black market, is it fair to say BII will be less impacted by leakage to the black market given the profile of the customers?

That's my first question. Then, coming back to the share buyback comment, what is the timeline on that?

When will the EGM could be held? When could the share buybacks, if approved, could start?

Finally, related to that, the dividend consideration, the 35% out of 2026 results, is that still the case or are there any potential changes there? Thank you.

Robeson Reeves

I'll take Yeah.

Chrysostomos Sfatos

Robeson, let me take the EGM one. There are a couple of issues post-transaction that we were planning to hold the EGM, the intention is to hold an EGM within the month of December which may include the issue of the share buybacks.

The dividend forecast, the percentage we have quoted is still the intention.

Robeson Reeves

Okay. I will pick up the other questions.

Part of the growth that we're expecting is in ARPU increase, but we're still expecting natural growth that we see from our marketing acquisition because we'll still be spending in the marketplace. I don't think our reduction in marketing will be as substantial as our peers.

Also, as I was trying to emphasize before, player spends grow over time, growth comes from actually your retained audience, not only adding new players on top. We get that because our players are lower spending.

They actually spend very little at the beginning, and they continue to build over time. That means for a more sustainable business, but also, to your exact point, we're less exposed to the black market because we don't have high-end customers.

We haven't got those big VIPs who get displaced by regulation and they go over to the black market so they can still get their big bet away.

Osman Memisoglu

Understood, thank you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Katsios Nestoras with Optima Bank. Please go ahead.

Nestoras Katsios

Hello, thank you for taking my question. Coming back to slide number four and your projections on EBITDA for 2026 and 2027, I can see that there's almost flat assumption for INTRALOT.

I guess you haven't taken into account any potential new contracts. Is that correct?

Robeson Reeves

Nikos, do you want to take it?

Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos

Yes, please. Can you please repeat the year?

2026, you mean?

Nestoras Katsios

And 2027. I can see almost flat EBITDA for INTRALOT, your

Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos

I think the slight increase in 2026, if I'm not mistaken. Let me see the screens.

€5 million, if I'm not mistaken.

Chrysostomos Sfatos

It's, Nikos, in the table we published, we have not taken into account new projects like the ones

Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos

Let me tell you something. This is mainly on Robeson's comment that this build-up and the bridge that we have here is really conservative.

What I can tell you for next year is that we are going to start two new projects in British Columbia. The first is going to be the iLottery, which it's going to start either on April or May.

I'm not talking about contract wins because this is already there. I'm talking about implementation.

This is the first one. The second one, we have not announced yet, but we are going to announce a contract with managed services, which we are going to sign in the next weeks.

It is already approved by British Columbia board. We are going practically to outsource a significant part of the operation of the system to us.

We are also going to have growth in markets that we are going to deploy the Bituvia platform, as we have said repeatedly. The main one is in Croatia where we are going to start the UAT in January, and we believe that by the end of the first quarter, we are going to be live and operational.

We are expecting, obviously, the organic growth that we have every year, especially in the US, give or take, follows the inflation. Last but not least, I do believe that we are going to have growth by adding some significant states that I cannot disclose yet in the Jackpot USA, this gain is going to really take off.

All in all, there are prospects that some of those we have already secured. We are cautious because of the situation, especially in the States, if there's going to be any recession, if there's going to be still a flat line, especially with the scratchcards, the instants, that represents, give or take, 65% of the market.

As I said in the beginning, and Robeson in his initial statement, this is a conservative forecast. It's not incorporate any new contract.

Keep in mind that apart from the renewals, the contract that we are going to win, even if we win a contract today, a new contract, we are not going to realize any revenue in 2026. We are not projecting any revenue there because the experience that we have in the US is in the last couple of years that there is significant delays, both in legislation in iLottery, but also in the evaluation and in the awarding of contracts.

Chrysostomos Sfatos

If I may add something to this, the table that we presented on slide four was intending to just explain the mitigation part on the UK tax, and that's why these estimates are conservative. As you may have noticed, the general range given by Robeson's quote is between 420 and 440.

In the optimistic scenario, it may include INTRALOT incremental revenue and EBITDA, which is not on this table. That's why we end up in the lower side of the spectrum that we said in our renewed guidance.

Of course, this is even more for 2027, that's further out. We have not calculated any of that incremental potential here.

This was just the exercise to present the mitigation plan, and that's why the numbers that we come in the end are on the lower end of the spectrum.

Nestoras Katsios

Okay. Because I missed the previous question, you said about the dividend, you are sticking to your intention to distribute from the next year?

Chrysostomos Sfatos

35% of net profits, yes.

Nestoras Katsios

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Pointon Russell with Edison Group. Please go ahead.

Russell Pointon

Good afternoon, everyone. Two questions.

First one, I suspect, is for Robeson. On slide four, the generosity marketing savings are broadly equally split.

Now, I know your answer earlier about you will be flexible. Does that mean the revenue elasticity of cutting marketing versus generosity is, on a like-for-like basis, very similar?

Robeson Reeves

I deliberately broaden the definition of saying generosity. Generosity means a few different things.

It's however you can give returns to your customer, it can be across the space of odds, can be across the space of reward, and so on. I think we have to be flexible there.

We can easily cut more marketing, to be clear, but I don't intend to. There's much more flex.

We chose a balance because we have to watch what happens in the marketplace. That's why we've said 50/50.

In reality, I suspect that there is potentially more revenue elasticity which comes from concentration of wallet share of existing players because of the pressures that are coming to other operators, who, as I've said, this entire tax rate removes all profitability. We have flex in our marketing, that's for sure.

We are already observing, and as I've said, I was a little bit shocked that I saw this on day one, that we don't have to spend the marketing in the same places to have the same volume of traffic. People have already, and it isn't like you might assume everyone will reduce, many operators have removed fully, right?

You could easily make assumptions on what it means for the overall required marketing spend to capture the entire marketplace, but we believe it's sensible that it's 50% 50 call it, we've put it into buckets of maybe 15 mil for generosity and 15 million for marketing, but I'm not going to hold myself to that. We have to adapt in times of change, and that's what we've shown we're good at doing over the last 20 years.

Russell Pointon

Right, thank you. My second question, I think the answer's already known to this, but I just want to make sure, with the now lower profitability expected for the group in the coming year or so, that doesn't frustrate any aspirations the group might have had in terms of new contract wins elsewhere across the globe?

Nikolaos Nikolakopoulos

No, on the contrary. As Chris, I think, mentioned before, we are not shy of the necessary CapEx either on the lottery side or on launching B2C operations.

The plan remains the same. As I mentioned before, especially on the lottery stuff, we are moving on going after the contracts that we have in our pipeline, and the same goes also on the launches that we have planned on the B2C space.

Russell Pointon

Great. Thanks, Nikos.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Baagil Aminah with Arini Capital Management. Please go ahead.

Aminah Baagil

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Understand on a year-to-date basis, your performance is stable with some impact of FX.

If we look at just the quarterly performance, the decline is quite pronounced at double digit. Would you be able to just explain this?

Thanks.

Chrysostomos Sfatos

Let me take this one. The variance in the third quarter compared to last year again is attributed to the FX, but also accompanied, as I said during my analysis, on a slower pace in relation to the growth of markets in Argentina and Turkey.

The market had a slower growth compared to last year, and this is why the FX hit was higher, although normally the market catches up with a devaluation. In this case, in this quarter, this was at a slower pace, this is the variance compared to the full-year effect.

Of course, it's not only the Argentina and Turkey. We saw the same effect even in the US, overall, the FX was negative.

Aminah Baagil

Sorry, just to clarify, if I see the year-on-year delta within the Americas, there's a around €10 million decline in the revenue. Is it driven by one particular region, or is it across the different geographies within the US?

Chrysostomos Sfatos

It is across the different geographies.

Aminah Baagil

Can you confirm that there wasn't anything different last year, perhaps, higher marketing spend or any project behind this decline?

Chrysostomos Sfatos

No, it was just the FX.

Aminah Baagil

Got it, thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, to register for a question, please press * and 1. The next question is a follow-up question from Raman Narula with Principal Asset Management.

Please go ahead.

Raman Narula

A quick follow-up for me. Sorry, didn't quite catch what you said earlier about the share buyback.

Is that going to be from Bally's Corp in the US increasing their stake, or will the combined sort of INTRALOT Bally's group look to buy back shares from the exchange?

Robeson Reeves

I can take that. With respect to Bally's Corporation, Bally's Corporation will purchase shares, not buybacks, but purchase shares and increase its stake.

Raman Narula

Understood, thank you.

Robeson Reeves

Making a recommendation, though, yeah, obviously dependent on approvals, as Bally's INTRALOT to make share buybacks as well, because this company is strong for the medium and long term.

Raman Narula

For Bally's INTRALOT, are you able to give any sort of quantum, like max quantum, which you will be looking to buy back assuming all approvals are given, or

Robeson Reeves

I think we'll just review that as a board.

Raman Narula

Understood, thanks.

Robeson Reeves

We still have a focus on delevering. We want to make sure that we grow appropriately, balancing these things together.

We want to do all of these things in

Operator

Hello, Mr. Raman, are you done with your question?

Raman Narula

Sorry. That was it for me, thanks.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time.

I will now hand over the conference to management for any closing comments. Thank you.

Robeson Reeves

For joining us today. This company is very strong for the medium term, and I'm very proud of being part of it and delighted that we have the combined Bally's International Interactive and INTRALOT together.

I look forward to speaking to you again very soon, and all the best for the festive season.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day.