Operator
Good morning, this is the conference call operator. Welcome to Generalfinance's conference call presenting H1 2026 results.
Let me remind you that all participants are in listen-only mode, and the presentation will be followed by a Q&A. The presentation can be downloaded from the website www.generalfinance.it by clicking on the home page banner.
To be assisted during the conference call, click or dial * and 0 on your phone keypad. Let me now turn the conference over to Mr.
Massimo Gianolli, CEO of Generalfinance.
Massimo Gianolli
Thank you very much. Good morning to all of you.
Welcome to our conference call. Let me remind you that our presentation can be downloaded.
We start from page 5 in our presentation and I'll walk you through it. You have an update of the voting rights that are for GGA, 62.48%, and and there was a recent transaction.
As you can read, it's marked "new" on the page. I acquired about 1% through MGA from SMT Holding, my holding now is up to 84.1 [point 10%?]
through my holding, which is called MGA, Massimo Gianolli Holding. The next page, we see our turnover growth, turnover volume, up 9% roughly, and indeed this positive news, it's lower than we expected in H1 2026.
However, we expect a strong recovery in the H2, but I'll dive into it later during the presentation to better clarify and elaborate on what I've just said. Growth is definitely higher than the factoring industry growth, and that indeed is a positive note.
Following page, we are on page 7, and you see a breakdown of assignor and assignee, debtor and sellers. There's a big difference between there's a big gap between the number of sellers and the number of debtors.
If we compare ourselves against the market, we have about 55 debtors per seller, and the market average is about 6, and so we have a 10-time higher model. The model is still performing by retaining the same metrics.
Then another parameter for comparison: our 9.1% growth versus 2.2%, which is the market average. On page 8, as we said before, as we were about to close a lawsuit that for a number of reasons led to different results in first and second instance and then in appellate, and we decided to finally settle that chapter in our and so we settled for 50% of the lawsuit in order to avoid further goes in through the court of appeal or Court of Cassation that would have had an impact on our level of risk, making it greater.
As a consequence, the final settlement is about €10.7 million, the profit. That's the profit for the period, that's 10.7, also because we factored in this one-off, the one-off related to the lawsuit.
On page 9, I would like to underline this because it's been something we've seen over the years, some clawback actions, and in the last 15 years, this is a breakdown over a long time period, 2007 to 2026. We had seven bankruptcy clawback actions, one lawsuit that was won, three lawsuits were settled, and one lawsuit was lost, and two are ongoing.
From a numerical standpoint, the number of lawsuits are is is very limited, is very low. If we look at the amounts, lost lawsuits were about €150,000 worth of cost, settled about €3.8 million worth of cost, and the total losses are about €4 million.
The if we take the turnover for the period, which is about €19 million, we have an additional cost of risk, to say, which is 0.02%. If we were to apply this to the disbursed amount, 0.03% if applied directly to the disbursed amounts.
That really gives you an idea of how those actions could somehow be affecting the business, but they are fully under control. We are now on page 10 in our presentation, and here we see, on the left-hand side, you see our CAGR between 2022 and 2025, which was outstanding, especially in 2025.
We enjoyed the benefits of a one-off transaction that had been originated in 2024 and that provided excellent results, and therefore, the comparison with the first half of last year between first half year 2025 is negative versus 2026. Net profit goes down is down 13% six months over six months, but if we were to compare it with H1 2024, it would be in line with the CAGR that you see on the left-hand side of the slide.
Very briefly, let's now move to page 12. Another well, very important factor, cost of risk is down, more or less the same level as H1 2026, 0.16%.
NPE ratio is also below the values of H1 2025, with a clearly marked improvement versus Q1 this year. On the right-hand side of the slide, you will be able to notice that the the net amount is about one-third versus benchmark, market benchmark, the gross NPE ratio benchmarking we were talking.
Page 13, and here you have a slide showing you how we are protected, our risk is protected through insurance policies, SACE or Allianz Trade policies insurance policies that cover a net risk of about €100 million, a real net risk. Then we have outstanding not advanced, stemming from non from recourse factoring, which is now landing at €199 million, and therefore, those are outstanding not advanced amounts that can be offset vis-à-vis payments that were not made or not received.
Then, of course, we've further strengthened the personal guarantees we get from third parties, mainly from shareholders of the companies we fund, which are about €200 million. If you strip off all of these mitigation factors, the net financial assets are €188 million.
Next page, page 14, 1-4, and I'm going to dwell on the left-hand side of the slide because we have a decline, a reduction in DSO. That's one of the reasons why we have conservatively decided to revise our guidance, because as DSO is something we have to that is imposed upon us somehow.
Because in 2024 and 2025 already, we had a DSO better than expectations, and then we worked hard to acquire portfolios that would take our DSO very close to the target, more than 80 days, higher than 80 days, 82, 83, 85 days. What we've realized in the first half of 2025, we've seen another decline.
It very much depends on the acquired portfolios, but also it also depends on external factors that are not under our control. We are constantly working, however, to identify portfolios that can somehow balance our DSO offset and take profitability to the expected levels.
The delays, payment delays on the right-hand side of the slide, you see we are hyper-performing still. 79% of our payments are made on the due date, and 26% is collected within the next 30 days, within a one-of-a-kind performance vis-à-vis the average market data.
If we move on to page 15, we see the trend I just talked about, the DSO trend now down to 78 days, and the recovery of our DSO follows a curve that normally leads to a recovery within a couple of months. This chart is really explanatory.
In 2024, DSO was 72 days, and then it gradually went up, and we expect potentially, we expect this DSO to pick up again starting from October-November this year and then to actually start growing again over 2027. On page 16, you have the usual slide focusing on our business model and breaking down our market.
We always focus on clients that are weak or distressed, that are either going through a restructuring or they have a generational handover or change in governance, changing ownership, you name it. There's a universe of companies that are in turnaround or restructuring, but as you see on the in the pie on the right at the bottom part of the slide, there's also a rebalancing in the performing universe.
As I said in the previous quarters, the breakdown of the quality of our sellers is to be seen in the central the lower central pie at the center of the slide, and you see that our turnover the quality of our turnover stemming from our sellers is excellent because most of our sellers are in the yellow area, some are red or black, but we have acquired green area sellers as well. That also, when it comes to out-sorting out-sourcing the top central pie tells you that our portfolio is always very balanced: 50% roughly with a scoring that is green, and then another sizable slice, which is 31%, which is yellow, and the remaining part is split between red and black.
It's interesting to see how the recourse factoring is growing again. We've always decided, and for over 30 years, we've been mainly working in recourse factoring because recourse factoring, especially during times of turnaround and complex moments of time, enables us to use financial flows to the benefit of our sellers, to channel them and to be able to really operate when focusing on portfolios and acquire or selling portfolios and have a better portfolio protection because non-recourse is only about 20-21% [21%?]
, therefore leaving room to our core business, more room to our core business. 71% of our turnover is covered by our historical Allianz Trade policy, and on recourse factoring, turnover is about 75%.
On page 17, 1-7, you can see how our business is working, our operating machine. Over the last 16 months running, 782,000 transactions were completed.
The market is strongly growing. In the first in this quarter, we acquired 32 new customers and we acquired 1,097 assigned debtors, and we got to 22,152 assigned debtors.
I'll come back to this later. It's interesting to notice how the increase in the number of sellers goes along different lines because we want to be less dependent on individual files, on individual large clients.
We are somehow scattering risk, spreading risk better. Increasing the number of assigned debtors is really stressing the performance of our performing 107,000 invoices leading to invoices, installments, and automatic notifications.
These are the foundations for the performance of H2 2026. Page 18, as we said in many press releases, we've invested a lot in our FTEs, in a reorganization of our organization.
We have five new managers that have joined us over the last year, of which three are focusing on developing, growing our business. That is very important because we have realized during 2025 that especially when it comes to steering the growth abroad, governing the growth abroad, especially more specifically in Spain, we our Spanish operation did not start with the speed we were expecting.
If you remember last year, the comment on the Spanish operation was a positive growth, beneficial to our company, but not leading and producing the turnovers we were expecting. That's why we made a decision to reorganize our business growth area.
Matteo Bigarelli is entrusted with it. He's recently joined us.
He has come on board and is working and focusing on business development. Then Marco Cleva, Chief Commercial Officer, has been with us for five for quite a few years.
Because we want to speed up our Spanish performance and operations, in a few minutes, we'll see that it's starting to send out positive signals. We are confident we will recover and hit the expected turnover targets, but we had to somehow reshuffle and remodel that area because we thought it was of paramount importance to have a person, one of our people heading our international operations, not just Italian development, but international global development as well.
After about a year of delays when it comes to opening our Swiss business, we have, as we had advanced during the Q1 results presentation, we interacted a number of times with the Bank of Italy. Hopefully, we are eight months late due to technical reasons, bureaucratic reasons more than anything else.
It's reasonable to think that starting from October, we should have even the Swiss the Zurich operations up and running in October. Then other investments that we've made on the personnel side, we will have acquired, you'll see in the next six months as well, we have hired two new colleagues in Zurich, and all we have to do is have the go-ahead.
As we had anticipated, we have a digital area now that was entrusted with Fabrizio Negri and with the aim to really speed up and make our client acquisition leaner and faster. We're talking about SMEs, reasonably performing SMEs, and that will free up space when it comes to distressed corporate loans to speed up our pipeline and also to really launch the activity we already know about called small digital business.
For quite some time now, we wanted to start it as a separate identity from the core business. Then we have Matteo Pizzicoli, who's really giving a great contribution for the new digital operations and also for other parts of the organization, departments in the organization, enabling them to use all available tools and AI as well to really streamline and support the streamlining of and speeding up of our pipeline for all the portfolios we have.
Then page 19, you see a breakdown of our the growth in our different activities. As you can see, the debtors assigned debtors trend between 2024 and the first six months of 2026 went from 20,500 to 22,100.
Then the sellers trend went from 293 in 2024 to 406 in the first six months of 2026, and we have a much lower concentration of our total exposure on the top 10 sellers. We worked a lot on that because we'd already factored it into our business plan as well, because we are foreseeing a progressive reduction of our dependence on top client to make our growth less and less relying upon clients who might have a weight that as long as you have them, it really speeds up your business, and then should you lose those clients, they would cause a major impact, a though temporary, but a negative impact on one's business.
On the right-hand side, you see Spain sellers went from 4 to 12. You we're starting to starting to see the results of our work in the first six months of 2026.
Also going forward, we will reasonably get to a €100 million worth of turnover. Assigned debtors went from 40 to 188, and the turnover went from 12 to €31 million.
Together with DSO, it's one of the factors that made us be conservative in revising our end results. In addition to the delayed startup of Switzerland are worth about €100 million of lower turnover in our business plan.
That turnover we think can be recovered by year-end, where we have a projection of about 4 billion, €4.45 4.45 billion worth of turnover. It we think it can be recovered, but we don't think it's automatic to have this to have all the recovery effects in the current fiscal year.
That's why we try to be conservative when it comes to disclosing to the market. Page 20, we have a breakdown, a snapshot, let's say, of our core business.
Our business keeps growing in SMEs and mid-corporate, in the SMEs and mid-corporate universe, as you can see from the chart top left. It's very interesting to notice that when it comes to notification, it's another factor that makes our model even safer and and with a longer duration, meaning lasting longer.
We have 74% with notification versus 48% of the factoring market, and 26% with not notification is is 26% with a non-notification with funds channeled to pledged accounts and reserved accounts and controlled by us when it comes to the collection flows. This is something I really need to stress, and I want to stress time and again.
Then, if you look at our breakdown on national versus international turnover, we're in line with market data. On the bottom of the slide, it's also very interesting to notice, as we said before, how we our main business is recourse factoring.
79% of our business is recourse factoring. We mainly work in Northern and Central Italy, less in Southern Italy.
We opened in Rome an office in Rome. We are growing our operations in Central Italy as well.
The product categories that for us are more interesting, especially in manufacturing companies, are make up our core business somehow, and they are a distinctive feature in Generalfinance operations. Let me now hand it over to our CFO, Mr.
Ugo Colombo, and we look at our P&L, our funding, and the transactions we and we've made to increase our funding, to improve our capital ratios, and I'll be back soon.
Ugo Colombo
Good morning to all of you. I'm on page 24 of the presentation.
Starting from the top, the main variables of our income statement, we've seen in the introduction, the revenue trend is up 4% for the banking income, and this is slightly lower than the expectations we had for H1, but it's fully aligned with the disbursed loans, up 3.8%, as you can see. Then within the net banking income, we have different performance between interest margin, which is flat year-on-year, also because we worked to strengthen our liquidity profile.
Today, it's much stronger than in the past, and we'll see in a minute how that is for funding availability, especially the committed part makes our business even more stable, no matter what scenarios we have to face going forward in the coming years and hopefully also enjoying a much greater growth than expected. As and we'll see in a minute, we have further strengthened our capital ratios with an issuance of 30 million in the last part of 2025.
It's the first six months, it's very interesting. It's under 7%, it has a weight on our P&L, but it creates the foundations for a capital profile that is very, very sound.
We tried to benefit from the debt market conditions, very favorable between 2025, end of 2025 and beginning of 2020. That has a cost, but it further strengthens our liquidity and capital profile even better and higher than what we had projected in our business plan.
The performance is slightly negative in absolute terms when it comes to cost of risk, 22%, but as we've seen, that cost of risk versus disbursed is down because is in line with 2025 results. As far as portfolio riskiness, everything is under control.
We have about 15, 1-5, basis points as far as cost of risk is concerned. Then if we leave the non-recurring item of the insolvency clawback, we've had positive results.
As you can see, at central part, we have the KPIs that we normally disclose at the end of quarters and half-year. Year-on-year, we are slightly downtrend, 9.8 versus 9.3 on mid-size loans.
There's a decline, as we said in the previous call. It's mainly due to non-recurring items versus our core business that had generated strong profitability in 2020 fall from the profitability perspective.
Then the interest margin now accounts for 22% of revenues, and, especially in this half-year, it's still a business model that generates a lot of commissions as a result of the fact that we are a company that provides factoring services, also based on working capital. We do not just provide liquidity to the sellers.
Then we have a good operating efficiency with a cost/income below 40%, 37% to be more precise versus 32 the year before. Year-on-year profitability, return on capital is still very good.
Balance sheet, we are aligned with 2025, €680 million of receivables, up 10%. Also, when it comes to recovering profit margin starting from Q2 in 2026, and we have about €100 million worth of liquidity thanks to funding transactions.
Liquidity in the first part of the year was higher than the average of the previous fiscal years. That gives you an idea of the negative carry on the interest margin.
The liquidity will be taken up over the coming quarters with the expected growth, to say. We've also underlined capital ratios that have been strengthened in 2025, especially as TCR is concerned.
We have about 18% versus a minimum, which is 8%. About 10 percentage points of buffers versus minimum requirement, which is 20 8%, sorry.
Page 26, a breakdown of our funding. See total funding is €1.2 billion available, and within that, in the first six months, we had a securitization item.
We had a new lender coming on board, in addition to the three existing ones. We have improved the bond part, senior and subordinated.
We worked on other funding transactions by increasing our ceiling with CDP which had been drawn for about €30 million, €1.2 billion, and €740 million, making our counterbalancing capacity, this is the use of funding, our counterbalancing capacity flat, in excess of half a billion euro, which also gives you an idea how much we can grow our funding and manage our funding in any market condition. Funding, it's all at variable rate, even for the hedging transactions we had over the last few months.
Spread is slightly worse than last year because of the bond placement transactions I mentioned before, but around 200 basis points on Euribor, three-month Euribor. Limited impact, but faced with a strong benefit when it comes to our funding profile.
Let's now move to page 29 to show you how, in addition to costs, we have increased our team, 22% increase as an impact on personal cost that is up, of course. We have non-recurring item to be taken into account, the NPI, the fair value revaluation of phantom shares, and then €400,000 worth of components, but apart from that, the organic growth of personal cost is aligned with the number of FTEs, it's equal to about a 22% increase.
If we compare it to the growth over the last few years, on the one hand, it was quite natural, it was something that we had to do, strengthening our FTE, and at the same time, we have hired some people to further complete the projects we had disclosed in our business plan. Then there's an impact of 12% given by certain legal costs tied in with the insolvency clawback lawsuit, and then, net of all of these items and components, growth would be around 9-10%.
Nothing really meaningful or worth
Massimo Gianolli
Thank you very much, Ugo. These are the last couple of slides, page 31 and 30 and 31.
On page 30, we've put some key messages as closing remarks. In this first half-year, we carefully revised whatever happened in 2025, and we got prepared and set up to face trends in 2026 and 2027.
We looked at correction measures to make sure that our business plan can be fully rolled out successfully, and we've looked into our new offices to be successful, new openings both in Italy and abroad. We've used this last quarter to further strengthen our organization, these six months, enabled us to get much stronger from a team perspective, but also from the perspective of having a strong franchise also in the more remote sites.
Also, we have strengthened our total capital ratio as well, so that we can look ahead to confidence. These are the last elements.
On page 31, you have a summary of the factors that led us to revising adjusted net profit, that was what we have revised, because all of the factors that could lead us to hit the targets may not come true at the same time. We may not be able to recover everything we expect to recover in or together with the market, we thought it was fair to provide you with a slight revision of our journey so as to be cautionary and fair to you and the market.
Operator
I would like to thank you very much, and we are now ready to take questions. This is the conference call operator.
Let's now start the Q&A. If you want to ask a question, press * and 1 on your phone.
To be removed from the Q&A queue, press * and 2. Please ask your questions using your phone handsets.
If you want to ask a question, press * and 1 on your phone now. The first question comes from the line of Irene Rossetto with Banca Akros.
Please, madam.
Irene Rossetto
Good morning to all of you. I have a couple of questions to ask.
The first one, with reference to the revision of this year's budget, could you give us some more color on your expectations for the NII, interest margins, commissions in the second half of 2026? Always talking about you having revised your budget, I was wondering whether there will be impacts in the coming years or whether you foresee an impact mainly in H1 2026 and then things should be smoothing out as we move through the year?
Massimo Gianolli
Let me start from the second part of a question, and then I'll hand it over to Ugo to answer your first question. Thank you, Irene.
The impact on 2027 or the potential impact on 2027 will be reasonably identified at the beginning of November, we'll have clearer idea. For the time being, we do not foresee any impact on next year.
Should that be the case, we will provide timely disclosure on the possible needs to revise, but we're talking about makeup, not maquillage, to say, not major revisions. Because it will depend whether or not we can start the new businesses, because Spain had a year of delay for technical and organizational reasons, and then it did not start at the expected speed.
Now we gave it a boost, we are confident that Spain can confirm the business plan data for 2027. Switzerland should be up and running in October, and I say should because, of course, we still have to wait for the right timeframe for Banca d'Italia to give the green light.
These are all external factors that have to be factored in, and also in light of the experience we've just made in our international operations. Over the last couple of years, we've worked hard, we understood a lot of things, and we are now much more aware of the approach.
We've launched a multicurrency and multilanguage platform. We invested a lot of time to get ready to operate international and to correct whatever mistake we identified.
This will be fully up and running and fully producing its impact probably starting from Q3 this year. DSO as such, if the loan is shorter, I'll have less interest and less commissions, but when we talk about conditions, interest and expense, we expect an improving trend that is very meaningful.
We don't see a deterioration of our business, no, not at all, and we don't expect a deterioration in our profitability. Let me now hand it over to Ugo to answer the first part of your question
Ugo Colombo
as to the expectation for NII and commissions. We expect an improvement in NII or interest margin starting from Q3, considering that there was a slight decline quarter-on-quarter, also due to the strengthening of our funding setup, which is not yet fully up and running.
What we expect is a recovery starting from Q3, a recovery of about 15% quarter-on-quarter, 1-5. Also, as Q3 is very meaningful when it comes to having an impact on total income, total profit.
On average, it accounts for 30-35%, there should be a further dependence on what is disbursed at the end of Q4. The volume of NII and commissions based on transactions that we have or are about to close or closing, and therefore are relying on an estimate which is quite conservative, should lead to a doubled NII versus what we had in Q2, and I mean Q4, because Q4 is very meaningful for our operations.
Same thing applies to commissions. It's clear that commissions have benefited from a very positive trend, about 2 million in Q2, a recovery of 2 million in Q2, and the recovery should go on, although in a more limited way in Q3 and also then in Q4 thanks to the impact of our turnover volumes.
In Q4, we should see an increase in the commission volumes versus Q3, and it's about 20% what we expect as far as improvement, and this is already embedded in the guidance we provided with as far as also income is concerned.
Operator
Question comes from the line of Luigi Tramontana, [Cheuvreux?] .
Luigi Tramontana
Thank you for taking my question. I'd like to go back to the margins that were quite weak in Q2, especially commercial spread suffered and went down.
The profitability of loans went down about 6% versus Q1, with DSO which is basically stable versus the previous quarter in Q2, and cost of funding was also flat, around 4.2%, also due to the issuance of a bond with a 5.5% coupon for the strengthening of your liquidity profile, as you mentioned. I would like you to elaborate on the expected turn of events in the coming months, considering the tax hike that was applied in June, considering that H3 is sorry, Q3 is already hedged against interest rate volatility.
Could you elaborate on that?
Massimo Gianolli
Let me start from the very last point you made, meaning that our balance sheet both assets and liabilities are are linked with Euribor rate, it's fully hedged by definition. Any possible decision made by the ECB with the impact on short-term rates should not have any impact on our operating income and our net interest margin.
As we've already said on a number of occasions, there's may be there may be a basic risk tied in with a mismatch, misalignment in the repricing between assets and liabilities. In Q3 normally, there was an increase in rates from 2.10 to 2.50.
The repricing [monthly basis?] , whilst on the asset side, and the receivables is spread over three months, there's a full adjustment in over the course of three months.
In case of a high or increase of short-term rates, this misalignment has an impact on the net interest margin, and that, of course, had an impact between the first and second quarter. It's the residual risk that it's difficult to hedge if you think about it from that perspective.
As you as what we've already reminded you when it comes to the net interest margin starting from Q4, there's a strong impact of certain transactions, always in our core business, but they're one-offs, they're not repeatable. If we look at Q3 and 4 in 2025, there in 2026 because that was already accounted for in the accounts in 2025.
We are already accounting for the net profitability of those transactions. Those were already accounted for.
Between Q1 and Q2, the cost of funding did have an impact on the yearly figures, and and it's important to then go back to the profit the expected profitability of our loans. We see a recovery, if we look at your question, a recovery from the bottom of 210 basis points of net interest margin, there was a recovery of a of 130 to 140 basis points in Q3 and then a further recovery by year-end.
This is the trend, and this is an answer your is the answer to your questions.
Luigi Tramontana
Thank you.
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Simona Chiriotti with Mediobanca. Please, madam, go ahead.
Simona Chiriotti
Thank you very much. Always looking at the yearly trends, I would like to know what the run rate could be for operating costs.
You have about 6 million per quarter. Is that a non-recurring expense that is tied in with specific projects, or do you expect any recovery on that front?
Then also concerning clawbacks, out of curiosity, the transaction that led to the clawbacks, when were they originated, those transactions, that led to clawback actions, and is that something that will happen again going forward or is something that really is connected with the past transactions that were performed in the past? Thank you.
Massimo Gianolli
On the first question, let me tell you that the run rate in Q3 and 4, we expect it to slow down versus the well, the provisions and what is accounted for as operating cost. We had a Q1 of 5.5 million euro, and then there were a number of initiatives, it could be lower in Q2, 6.2 million on an adjusted basis, we're talking about operating costs.
Q3 and Q4, we see it around 5.8, 5.9 costs, with a run rate that is flat versus the adjusted figure we had we've foreseen for 2026. What you say is correct, meaning that especially in the line item for personnel costs, above and beyond one-offs that were accounted for especially in the first quarter, and are about €400,000, we've already included the hirings of managers, for instance, that will head the Swiss branch.
Those were made ahead of time, were advanced versus a hiring that could have happened during the year. That's why the first half is much more burdened with costs, also because of investments, especially higher on intangibles because of greater investments, larger investments versus previous quarters.
What we see is the second quarter with a peak of total cost for the reasons I have explained, and then there will be a decline vis-à-vis the figures of Q2, about 5% decline in Q3 and Q4, a 5% decline versus Q1 and Q2. As far as the clawback actions, the few very few clawbacks we had, they have and it's clawbacks that are very old, meaning the the insolvencies and the defaults are are very old.
It's reasonable to think that this trend, despite it being a temporary and very occasional, could decline, could go down because of the fact that the from a legal perspective, there are very meaningful novelties, and then the the negotiated settlement, for instance, among the different changes that were applied enable us to work against a much less uncertain backdrop, especially if you're acting in the distressed world. If you operate with the right care, with the right level of attention, as we normally do, the it's it's it's very close to zero.
We cannot exclude it's impossible to rule it out fully, even against a better and more favorable backdrop. We cannot rule them out in full because it may happen that sometimes you make attempts, you make attempts and you make attempts made by the bankruptcy officials who try and find a settlement.
We are quite we're not very happy with settlements, but when we see that the risk of a lawsuit, above and beyond the the the length over time of a lawsuit, even in third instance may lead us to a loss, we normally prefers to simply cut the loss, settle, and get out of it. I think it's a declining risk also because of the masses we manage and also number of sellers, assigned debtors in 19 18 years.
The actual loss is .02% of our turnover, it's not a worrying piece of information. If we were to look at that figure in 10 years' time, I think it will be lower.
Ugo Colombo
What I can add, it's Mr. Colombo speaking, the CFO, in addition to what our CEO said, what I can add as to when those transactions were sourced, when those clients were taken on board, in seven, eight years, our organization has changed a lot.
We have introduced three, four years ago new scoring models, especially for the rating of sellers. They also look we also look at legal risks and clawback insolvency clawback risk.
We didn't have those models in the past, and now, as we have grown, our tools are much more sophisticated than they were in the past. Also, the new laws about financial crises and companies have evolved, they enable us to have a better way to protect ourselves and to manage any possible crisis in a much better way, and so any that focusing on anything that may be outside the restructuring universe.
There are better tools to identify the and score the sellers, and there's an evolution of the law and of codes that are much better suited today to manage this kind of crisis or type of clawback in a much more effective way.
Simona Chiriotti
Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Davide Rimini
Good morning to all of you. Thank you very much for the presentation.
I have a couple of questions. One is about the competitive scenario during the presentation.
A slowdown not just on the international fronts, but also at domestic level. Could you elaborate on it, meaning as far as market opportunities are concerned, are there any signs for slowing down of the business or not?
Then another couple of questions. Do you want me to ask them one at a time?
Massimo Gianolli
As you prefer. Not in Italy, no signs, because if we look at our business plan and then you look at what we expect for Swiss and Spain, we are missing 50 million turnover.
This decline in turnover also factors in the fact that Spain only did 30 million instead of the amount we expected. We expected 100-150.
This is what we expected for this year. There's no theme for core business slowdown in our country domestically.
We have issues of fine-tuning in Spain. It took longer than expected, but also excellent projections and for this year, for the existing fiscal year.
So 30 million we had expected in Switzerland for this year for the simple reason that we could not open the office at the beginning of the year and probably will open in October. Maybe we can do 30 million, but we want to be conservative and cautionary, if you wish, in providing the explanation and saying that we're going to consider the business up and running as of next year, not this year, accounting-wise.
A question on the new guidance you have released.
Davide Rimini
As you refer to net profit adjusted in considering the settlement you will make in the coming weeks, but if you compare it to the original business plan, the 32 million or higher than 32 million you informed us about at the beginning of the year, was that the reference base?
Massimo Gianolli
Yes, Davide, that was our reference base. In our business plan, we had not factored in that specific risk.
It was considered as a remote risk, it was not factored in, as it is now, and not even potential provision. That's why now we are offering the 29 to 31 million adjusted net profit that we mentioned this morning.
Davide Rimini
I don't remember the number of the slide. It was risk-weighted asset density growing versus the snapshot you had given us at year-end.
Could you give us some color on that with respect to this?
Ugo Colombo
It's page 28, it's RWA density going from 72 to 78%. It's mainly three elements leading to that increased density.
It's the outstanding volume of VAT receivables. We had a peak in 2025, and now we are much lower than €40 million.
The weighting is zero because the creditor is the state, there's no higher weighting. Then with the one-off transaction, monetized in the meantime, almost fully repaid in the first part of 2026, the component of so-called reverse transaction that had benefited from the state guarantee, the weighting is zero, and so the asset were weighted according to standard criteria, RWAs.
Then one last thing is a higher component of corporate assigned debtors. We have a portfolio that, exposure-wise, is normally 50-50 between corporate and retail.
Retail normally is 57% as a 75% supporting factor, and we had a reshuffling towards corporate vis-à-vis retail, and that led to a average weighting of portfolio to a higher level. If you put together those three factors, it leads to a slightly higher RWAs even when we'd put 75%, but nothing changes because then there was a strengthening of ratios.
Indeed, there's a relative decline or worsening of those three factors. We can reasonably expect that to still be applicable at year-end.
The last point is difficult to foresee, the other two had already been included in that 75%, and this is more predictable. It could be 75-78% if you want a figure the current.
Davide Rimini
Thank you.
Operator
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Massimo Gianolli
I would like to thank you, and I would like to thank all those who were patient enough to stay with us today. I would like to thank you very much for all the questions you asked, and we hope we were very clear in our proceedings.
Operator
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Thank you very much.
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