Prysmian S.p.A.

Prysmian S.p.A.

100.10
EUR
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Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 30, 2026

Operator

Welcome to Prysmian First Half 2026 Integrated Results Webcast and Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone.

You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again.

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Massimo Battaini, Chief Executive Officer of Prysmian.

Please go ahead.

Massimo Battaini

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining this call, quarter two results.

We're super excited to highlight that this is the best quarter ever of Prysmian, $730 million EBITDA, 15.4% EBITDA margin, 9.4% organic growth. You see is a great quarter from the numbers perspective.

It's also great in terms of the achievement of the hyperscalers and Molex deals with a $10 billion increment of revenues in the optical space over the next 10 years. Also on the sustainability side, we exceed our expectations with 46% of current revenues linked to sustainable solutions.

When you read 46%, you need to read almost $10 billion revenues where we provide customer with low carbon footprint and solutions that help them achieve their own targets. 42% is the amazing reduction of Scope 1 and 2 over the baseline of 2019, setting a great confidence in achieving the net-zero by 2035, well ahead of everybody else.

Moving to this quarter two perspective, I think it's important to share this slide is not moving right. It's important to share this different perspective, which we are very proud of.

You see in quarter two, we deliver we created the EBITDA higher than what has taken us more than 12 months in the past. In 19 2018, sorry, we generated $700 million EBITDA over the full year.

In 2022, it has taken us six months, one semester to deliver a similar EBITDA. Now we did this in one quarter.

This is a strong sign of the effectiveness in the good execution of the strategy that we designed years ago. The strategy that is basic basically is set on expanding the the transmission business, growing leadership in North America thanks to the acquisition, and also shifting our focus from cable manufacturer that was our past driver of growth to solution provider.

Entering to the digital solution space with more detail, I think you read the press release. I'd like to give you more color around the the deals.

These are $10 billion revenues that applies to the optical space. Forgive us this there is a time lag in the in the change in the slide change.

You see on the bottom right that our Digital Solutions business covers three segments of business. One is Optical, which is which accounts for 40% of the revenues in Digital, Connectivity and so components to connect cables, and the MMS, which is copper cables.

Both the last two accounting for 30% of the total revenue. You see on the left chart the green bars explain our involvement in data center activities.

The horizontal line sets the scene relatively to the past situation where we had in '25 green data center exposure, data center exposure in green, and in gray the fiber to the home business. You see that we're adding this $1.1 billion at run-rate incremental revenue.

At the same time, we are reallocating big best parts of the original fiber to the home business to data center to gain even more share. When you look at the 2031 perspective, you see that 90% of our revenues and even more in terms of EBITDA belongs to data center expansion.

We see ourselves as the company enabling the data center expansion better than anybody else because alongside Optical, we are the whole range of broad range of power cable products. Last three to mention is the the submarine telecom interconnection long-haul thanks to the [unclear] acquisition.

This is definitely a transformative opportunity for the digital solution space in Prysmian from a very cyclical business into a fast-growing business that is meant to achieve a sizable EBITDA by 2020-31. We give you more detail about this at the next Capital Market Day.

Moving to the segment of business, Transmission continues the strong journey in terms of EBITDA margin at 22%, 21.2%. In terms of organic growth, it's extremely solid, 14.3% in quarter two.

In absolute value, $180 million in quarter two. When you compare this to same quarter last year, you see a 60 almost $60 million EBITDA accretion.

In Power Grid, we confirmed what we basically told you last quarter. You see a significant rebound in EBITDA margin from 12.4 to 13.8 sequentially with $135 million EBITDA supported by strong demand in US and also strong demand in Europe, but I would say that there is a kind of solid demand across all the other regions because the strengthening of the grid is a very common and underlying driver of growth across all segments, all markets in our geographies.

The organic growth was particularly satisfactory at 13. 13% increase in this quarter.

Moving to Industrial Construction, also here we we we improve significantly, $228 million EBITDA, $20 million sequentially over 2025 quarter two, with a $5 million headwind coming from forex, even better when we excluded the forex effect. EBITDA margin rebounded from the 13% of quarter one.

We had a very strong quarter two especially in United States with a very strong month of June inside this quarter two. Organic growth in US is higher than the group average, 13.4%, driven by North driven by data center, sorry, but not only, also driven by the nonresidential market that has showed different sign, new new signs of improvement vis-a-vis a kind of a flattish situation in 2025.

Specialties is still suffering from weak weak weak demand in elevators, in oil and gas, and profitability under pressure in in the automotive business that is remained with us, but we maintain it stable. This is a solid driver of EBITDA in different regions and is a nice complement to the Industrial Construction business because those are sophisticated sophisticated, sorry, cables that we couple with Industrial Construction business to electrify equipment alongside buildings.

It's an important complement and portion of our portfolio. Digital, Digital is the the star of the quarter.

You see the the outstanding EBITDA margin, 24%, coming from 20.6% in quarter one. 24% is not the end of the game, is not the end of the story.

The 24% will go further up in the future. This is set to be the most profitable business from the EBITDA margin perspective inside our portfolio, beating the Transmission business at 21% EBITDA margin in the report.

You see how sizable is the increase over quarter two '25, $60 million, out of which $30 million are attributed to the perimeter change. Last year we had Channell included in the report only for one month, this year is for the full period, but the rest from 60 to 90 is Channell, from 90 to 122 is TLC's original perimeter.

You see the power of pricing, efficiency, scale, and the shift from fiber to the home to data center. Our sustainability and innovation KPIs are also extremely satisfactory.

The 25% recycled content in quarter two is a sign of lower reliance on a tight copper market in United States. We recycle more waste than we used to do in the past, lowering our cost and shortening the and securing the supply chain and shortening lead time.

46% of revenues I commented already before. This 32% of vitality KPI is also an important indicator of how crucial and key for this company is to continue innovation.

This is telling that 1/3 of our revenue have been achieved through products that we launched to the market in the last three years. And 1/3 of our revenue accounts for $7 billion.

We had in this year $7 billion revenues generated by new products. Why is this important?

Because new product means higher share of wallet, it means higher profitability, it means a different pricing power, it means a different value provided to our customer to strengthen our relationship. Key parameter for our growth in the future as well in the past.

Two example of the innovation area: hollow-core fiber is an innovative solution to convey data through air, faster, 30% faster than standard standard glass technology, allowing data center to be further spaced out, avoiding to create congestion on existing energy grids, which is the real constraint to data center expansion. Also in the Transmission business, a very innovative solution to bury cable at a deeper depth, greater depth than the standard methodology, making the network more secure, more resilient, and providing customer an upside in terms of reliability of the connection.

Let me hand over to Francesco for more details on the financial result of the quarter.

Pier Francesco

Thank you very much, Massimo, and good morning to everybody. As usual, let me use the profit and loss to recap some of the messages that Massimo has already passed.

The organic growth in the first half was in excess of 7% with a very good acceleration in the second quarter reaching 9.4% in the second quarter. I have to say that all the segments of the company performed extremely well in terms of organic growth with a growth of 14% in Transmission, 13% in Power Grid, 9% in I&C, 18% in Digital Solution, with the only little exception of Specialties, which was substantially flat or slightly negative in the quarter.

The performance was very strong in terms of EBITDA, as Massimo said, the best yet quarter at 730 with a sequentially increasing EBITDA margin at standard metal at 15.4% and with a very substantial growth from the second quarter of last year, plus $125 million, but also sequentially from Q1, plus $130 million, as you see from the right box of this chart. The lion's share of this growth was taken by Transmission and Digital Solution, plus $54 million and plus $65 million, respectively.

Of course, with the support also of the great performance of Channell that Massimo mentioned. Power Grid improved the margin sequentially, which is very important, and as you have seen organic growth in Power Grid both in Europe and North America was extremely positive.

Electrification and particularly I&C performed the best quarter in the last, I would say, 18 months. Very positive, specifically in North America.

Very good note also on the group net profit that reached $569 million in the first half, by far the highest ever. This is other than the EBITDA and the operating result supported by a very nice drop in financial charges, like you see here, a slight improvement also of the tax rate, and this sets our group net profit estimate for the full year in excess of the $1.2 billion, which will mean a growth of earning per share which is significantly beyond the original targets that we had set.

Let me now turn to the cash generation, which was solid, close to $1 billion in the last 12 months as of June. A bit lower than the one that we had in Q1.

The main reason, I would say the only reason, is the very high impact and adverse impact of the rising metal prices, which reached actually the peak in the Q2 and which will progressively decrease in terms of adverse effect in the second half. Massimo will show you the updated guidance on the free cash flow, but we plan an extremely strong second half on the back, of course, of the contract with Molex, which will bring in a very substantial down payment, but even more importantly, on the back of a very strong cash flow coming from the Transmission business.

This year the Transmission business cash flow is mainly concentrated in the second half, and we are also doing great in terms of improving our working capital performance and efficiencies. All this will contribute to this quite, I would say, strong target that we have set for the year that Massimo will explain in a while.

I think I move it back to Massimo.

Massimo Battaini

Francesco, thank you. Quickly two main changes: the EBITDA, we raise this $2.7 billion of the original guidance to 2.850, range of 2.8, 2.9 is worth saying that we have super high confidence to be the 2850 to end up in the top portion of the upper part of the range, 2850 to 2.9.

You see that 2850 itself is already quite close to the target we set for 2028 at the Capital Market Day of 2025, which means that we will certainly in the next quarter one, quarter two 2026 '27, we will go out for a new Capital Market Day providing and disclosing the trajectory from 2027 through 2030, 2031 with the organic growth and the strong driver and explanation of where we see this growth in the different geographies. Free cash flow is an amazing number, now $1.7 billion is also the highest ever free cash flow of the company.

It is true that there is $550 million coming from Molex as a down payment, but equally important to mention that there are a significant increase in CapEx partly to support digital solution capacity expansion, but partly to starts showing the growth that we had to underline that we will disclose next year at the Capital Market Day. This is organic across many segments and many geographies, North America, but also Europe, also other regions, and Transmission.

The 1.7 is the effect of Molex on the one hand, some additional CapEx in '26 that will continue stronger in '27 and beyond, with the efficiency and the additional EBITDA offsetting the metal impact versus the original guidance. The metal impact is around €250 million.

With this, I move to the closing remarks. Great performance, super satisfied about the change in pace of the company that company showed this quarter.

As said before, we are pleased unique opportunity to be the only one serving data center with the whole product range they need for this function. We are now investing in growth in '26 and beyond '26, and the acceleration, paves the way for a new Capital Market Day in first half 2027.

I'd like to hand over to you for your questions and more details about our success story.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question now, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again.

A moment for our first question. We will now take our first question from the line of Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs.

Please ask your question, Daniela, your line is open.

Daniela Costa

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

I have two questions. I'll ask them one at a time.

First, just wanted to follow up on the going forward how should we think about fiber margins from here? Should we think about having a linear step up?

I think in the past you have commented about mid-20% EBITDA margin given all that has happened in that segment and your new exposures. Is that still appropriate, and sort of how the path is more linear, more back-end loaded, if you could give some color on that, and then I'll ask the second one.

Yeah. The path

Massimo Battaini

Daniela, thank you for the question. The path is pretty linear through 2029 because the shortage in the market will continue until then, and we have actual target that will disclose at the Capital Market Day.

We see us in the upper part of the range 25% to 30%. We will beat the 25% mid-20s, and consider that not only fiber will drive the growth, but also connectivity, especially the Channell portion, which is also partly exposed to data center, will support the EBITDA margin growth in the coming quarters.

Daniela Costa

25% to 30%, that's kind of for the '29 period that you've mentioned, or that's sort of throughout the period and then you

Massimo Battaini

Is a linear from '27 through '28 to go as high as between 25% and 20 and 20 30% and 25% and 30% by then.

Daniela Costa

Got it. Okay.

Thank you. Then just second question, I think in the past you had tied up doing an update on the medium-term targets with sort of your M&A ambitions.

I wonder if we should read anything into the timing of the CMD and that, if you could update a little bit how you're progressing on sort of your ambitions there.

Massimo Battaini

We are making progress. We analyzed a lot of companies in the last 12 months, and it could well be the case, we cannot comment much, but could well be the case that before then we'll have a perimeter change so that new ambition will include both organic and M&A perimeter, additional benefit from the perimeter.

Daniela Costa

Got it. Thank you so much.

I'll go back into queue.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Daniela.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Vivek Midha of Citi.

Please ask your question, Vivek, your line is open.

Vivek Midha

Thank you very much, everyone. Good morning.

Hope you can hear me well. My first question is around the Molex deal.

You've highlighted the figure of over $10 billion of cumulative optical data center revenues of which Molex is $5.5 billion. Within the other portion of that figure, could you maybe give us an indication of how much of that has already been signed as of today versus how much you're anticipating in deals to come?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Vivek. The 5.5 is Molex, as you said.

The balance is hyperscalers, all players in the infrastructure deployment of data center expansion. The balance is not as long in terms of duration as the Molex deal, which is a 10 years deal, but for the next five to six years, the rest is also covered by deals already signed.

We are also thinking of making a second wave of capacity expansion because there's still a lot of demand unsatisfied in the market. We keep receiving requests for additional volume delivered to existing customer, new customer.

I'm pretty confident that over the next two quarters, we will sign new deals in addition to the one that we agreed we landed in the last two months.

Vivek Midha

Thank you. Just to follow up to clarify.

Is that that second wave of deals over and above the $10 billion, or is it part of the $10 billion? Just to put it

Massimo Battaini

It would be over and above the $10 billion agreements.

Vivek Midha

Okay. Understood.

Thank you very much. My second question is on the I&C margin.

The very strong organic growth, particularly in the US. The margin is down year-on-year.

The US is typically margin accretive in that business, or it is margin accretive in this business. Why is the margin not stronger, and maybe could you elaborate on how the margin has developed in both Europe and the US?

Thank you. Yeah.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Vivek. Yeah.

US is accretive. We also have another region that is highly accretive, which is LatAm, and so the margin LatAm are not as high as US, but close to.

In LatAm, we have, softening margin in a couple of countries, one is Colombia, one is Argentina. This is the reason why year-over-year the margin are still slightly down.

Also mention that the quarter two was a strong quarter in in US, but June was the strongest quarter the strongest month ever. April and May were not as strong as last year, and so when you compare the year-over-year the margin of quarter two '26 with '25, bring into account that also US has did very well in June, but not as well as quarter two last year in April and May.

Mainly the major effect is this weakening in in the LatAm region.

Vivek Midha

That's clear. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question.

The next question comes from the line of Akash Gupta of JP Morgan. Please ask your question, Akash, your line is open.

Akash Gupta

Yes, hi. Good morning.

I got two as well. The first one is a follow-up on these framework agreements and that you have signed in optical fiber cable business.

Massimo, you previously said margins of Channell are higher than your remaining digital solution business because they sell directly to hyperscalers, while your products were going through some intermediary companies that buy your products and then sell it to hyperscalers. The question is that when you sign these optical fiber cable framework and you have Molex, you have directly with some hyperscalers, my question is that does the margin in framework agreement directly signed with hyperscaler hyperscalers differs than when you sign with companies like Molex or are they same?

That's the first one to start with. Yeah.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Interesting perspective.

The margins today are even higher than what we have in the long-term deals. The approach was that we wanted to trade a longer duration and securited margin over a longer time than the best margin possible in the spot business.

When it comes to comparison, comparing Molex to hyperscalers, the margin across these two different customers is pretty much the same. Of course, new deals or recent deals have better margins than what we signed two months ago.

Some of those agreements Molex was signed three weeks ago, but some of the other hyperscaler agreements were signed two or two months ago. There is a close alignment in margin between the two of them.

There is certainly today and in September, October, November, December, for sure, better opportunity to enhance margin with new deals because the, as said, the capacity is still what it was one year ago, and for the next two years will remain unchanged. What matters is the ability to shift from old or traditional fiber to the home customers to data center.

Also bear in mind that the market is buoyant within fiber to the home customers because they are desperate for volume as well. Margins are similar across the whole customer base, basically.

They will be progressively growing, new deals will give us stronger profitability. Channell margin are higher because this is not cable, is components, is plastic, metal, frame, and all this stuff, and they are bespoke solution partly for data center and partly for fiber to the home.

Akash Gupta

Thank you. My follow-up question is on guidance.

Today you are raising guidance by 150 million at the midpoint. I'm curious if you can help us split how much of that is because of Digital Solutions versus rest of the company?

When we look at the upgrade that is coming from Digital Solution, how much of that is already secured based on your renegotiation and higher prices from some contracts that are getting rolled over? Is there any scope for renegotiating some of the existing contracts in second half that might bring upside to this 150 million?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Very pertinent question.

The two drivers of growth behind this guidance is solidity in Power Grid and Electrification, which is the baseline. Certainly, Transmission and Digital Solution are the two main contributor to this 150 million, or to whatever the number will be the final result.

We both fully will be definitely higher than 2 billion 850. Transmission this year will add $200 million EBITDA to last year.

Last year, we ended up with 580. You can imagine a number this year 200 million higher.

This is embedded in this guidance, not fully embedded in this guidance. Digital Solution is adding easily 50, 70, 80 million to the previous guidance due to the repricing of the old business.

We see margin improvement in Digital Solution every single week. Every single week, we continue renegotiating contracts, framework agreements more than contracts, with existing fiber to the home customers.

Every single week, we are telling we are disappointing customers because we have no fiber to give them. There will be additional chances to build extra profitability in Digital Solution in the coming months.

A certain point, we'll reach a balance, now. The market will be fully saturated by existing capacity.

Is fully saturated by existing capacity, there will be no room for new deals, but new room for the deals will come from the additional capacity expansion that we're thinking of negotiating with other players, hyperscalers or other infrastructure players in the second half of 2027. So 150 million, basically, solid growth in Power Grid and Electrification on the one hand, stronger contribution from Transmission and Digital Solution to top up this number to 2850 and beyond.

Akash Gupta

Thank you, Massimo.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Max Yates of Morgan Stanley.

Please ask your question, Max, your line is open.

Max Yates

Thank you. Good morning.

I just wanted to start on the hyperscaler agreement. I think in that press release, you said that you expected your hyperscaler revenues to be around $1.1 billion by 2031.

I was just trying to get a feel for how much of your total Digital Solutions you were expecting the hyperscalers to be, cuz look, where I'm going with this is I was struggling to reconcile numbers. I think you've previously said hyperscalers would be most of your optical business.

Your optical business is typically, 60% of your total business. It just seems like quite a low number given where consensus revenues are.

Maybe just any color around that, how much of that business, that number actually doesn't seem that high in the context of where consensus is.

Massimo Battaini

Yeah. I like to re-set the scene with first of all the breakdown of Digital Solution revenue between the three segments: Optical, Connectivity, and MMS.

Take 2025 revenues, Digital Solutions amounted to $1.6 billion. Out of that 1.6, you should see $600 million more or less Optical, the rest is more or less equally split between Connectivity and MMS.

When I say 1.1 million $1.1 billion data center is incremental. The $600 million plus 1.1 will make $1.7 billion in the optical space.

The data center piece inside this optical space of $1.7 billion revenue by 2030 will account for 85-90% of the total revenue. Today in the past, last year in '25, the $600 million revenues in Optical, we had more or less $200 million of data center revenues.

From 200 million data center to 1.1 additional, but at the same time, the fiber to the home business, we are shifting to data center. Overall, outside the $1.7 billion revenue Optical total for 2030, take 90%, that would be data center.

So 1.5. That's very clear.

Max Yates

Yep. That's very helpful.

Maybe just a bigger picture question on tariffs. We've seen obviously, huge amount of moving headlines.

I imagine it's very difficult for you to keep on top of, but, maybe just your latest on the ground perspective of what all of these tariff headlines, maybe split by copper and aluminum, is actually meaning for your business in terms of on the ground activity, how it's driving competitor behavior, whether you've seen any noticeable change in that in the last three months, and whether these newer tariff headlines, you expect any change maybe in the next 3 to 6 months as a result of any of the developments? Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

I think we confirmed what the trend that we noticed in the market in the last two months. One in as far as the aluminum cable is concerned, when they shifted from 50% tariff applied to metal to 25% applied to the whole value of the cable, we noticed changes in behavior in the market.

Importers became less relevant because they had to declare the whole value of cable and pay on top of it 25%. This brought them out of competition in terms of price.

They could not offer any longer a better price than the local player. We noticed aluminum building wire cables benefit from more pricing or margin power in the last three months.

As far as the rest is concerned, copper, nothing changed. As far as the future tariffs is concerned, I don't have a clue, but I think all those tariffs will help again local player to strengthen their position in the market to become even more relevant than importers, and hopefully to benefit from incremental margins.

Max Yates

That's helpful. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Max.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Sean McLoughlin of HSBC.

Please ask your question, Sean, your line is open.

Sean McLoughlin

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

Can I start with Power Grid? Impressive organic growth, and you talk about the positive trajectory continuing.

I'm just wondering where you are in terms of your current loading capacity, and if we look out over the next 12 months, what is driving that positive trajectory? Is it more capacity coming online?

Is it pricing? If you could just maybe flesh that out a little bit in more detail, that's the first question.

Massimo Battaini

The growth that is planned for our perimeter in Power Grid is coming from additional capacity. We approved one year ago additional medium-voltage capacity in US and in Europe.

Two months ago, we approved another wave of medium-voltage capacity increase in US. Partly of that capacity will serve the I&C, Industrial Construction market, call it EPC or data center expansion, part of that medium-voltage will be for utilities.

Because don't forget these power grids that we have in US, but also in Europe, needs continuous reshaping and restrengthening and hardening because the additional electricity demand increase across the globe. We are also positive about the famous cost increase passed through to the market.

That there are this time lag effect due to the existing formula. Since the market is buoyant, level of prices is increasing in the market, we would be able to restore this famous 14.5% or 15% EBITDA margin in the coming quarter, maybe quarter four, maybe quarter one next year, I would say.

The growth opportunity is amazing. We are currently flat out in terms of capacity in Europe and North America.

If you had more, we would sell more at a good price.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you. That's very clear.

Second question is back to Digital Solutions just on slide five. To understand firstly the cadence of the incremental revenues, which look to be peaking in '28, and then you have a kind of a further pick up in 2031 after a fade.

'28 is related to higher CapEx in '26 and '27, just wondering what's happening on the tail. Also the substitution switch of current revenues into Optical, is that again should we assume kind of a linear progression '25 to '31, or is that switch out going to happen much more quickly?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

The steady level of capacity expansion run-rate will be achieved by 2030. In 2030, we'll have additional capacity equivalent to $1.1 billion incremental revenues in the data center space in the optical segment of business.

Until then, we will have marginal improvement on capacity from '28 onwards, but the full run-rate is 2030, but we'll have an important benefit by shifting away from fiber to the home to data center. I don't know if I answer the question, but imagine today we have or last year we had $600 million in optical business.

In 2030, we'll have $1.7 billion in optical business. Today namely last year, we had 200 million in data center out of the 600 million revenues.

In 2030, we'll have $1.5 billion revenue in data center. I hope that with this matrix, I answer the question, Sean.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you. Yeah.

I suppose just to follow up on an earlier comment you made about 2029, you're talking about the fiber shortage continuing up to then. Do you already then assume that by '29 there is more of a supply-demand balance, or is there likely to be more, let's say, demand upside risk pushing that date further back?

Massimo Battaini

Unfortunately, Sean, I would be unfair to say if I'm able to read the market in 2029. The comment I would like to make is that it will take three years, 2027, 2029, for the players to build this capacity.

Bear in mind that the players I'm talking about is us and Corning, because none of the others are in US, and we're talking about US fiber. The fiber, the origin of country, the origin of production of fiber has to be US to avoid the unbearable tariffs if you were producing fiber in China.

The volume demand I think will continue. I don't think we'll reach the balance in '29.

In fact, we have a new opportunity to expand capacity now beyond what we already committed to doing for Molex and the others because there's additional demand in the market. What else to say?

In the end of the day, for as far as our concern, what the volume will be in demand in the market will be in '29, '30, '31 is not that relevant because we have security of the margins in absolute value over the next 7 to 10 years thanks to the contracts. Personally, I believe that this imbalance will continue beyond 2029.

Sean McLoughlin

Very clear. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome, Sean.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Chris Leonard of UBS.

Please ask your question, Chris, your line is open.

Chris Leonard

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the time, and maybe a few from me as well, one by one perhaps.

Starting on Digital Solutions and thinking about the connectivity piece. Obviously, you've spoken about the incremental revenue you see coming through fiber directly into data centers.

I wonder if there's anything you can give us looking out to 2030 on the connectivity portion of the division, and whether or not that will also benefit from similar tailwinds and how you kind of see the channel business will progress because obviously it's a very high margin area. Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

There is already, Chris, thank you for the question. There is already a great uptake in the performance of Connectivity in the current months because as the market rebounded in US across fiber to the home and especially data center, also these components or connectivity, closures, boxes, vaults, and all the stuff that Channell makes, benefit from additional demand and better prices.

We have in quarter one and also quarter two '26 outperformed the result of Channell in quarter one and quarter two 2025 significantly. We expect this to continue.

At the same time, we are developing new products, larger boxes that goes underground for data center application. This will give us the opportunity to add additional single revenue to the Channell business that originally was only fiber to the home, adding the data center opportunity to Channell business.

The margins we have in Connectivity, Channell, is as high as 35% EBITDA, 36-37% EBITDA. Very accretive to the whole division.

Chris Leonard

Thank you. Staying still on Digital, can you maybe talk about the phasing of the Molex contract this year?

Are we anticipating a more material step up in revenue here for Q3, Q4? With that, obviously, your higher margins too on the basis of that pricing being captured from data center customers, Molex being one of them.

Equally, the new contracts you've just pointed to that could be signed and maybe already have been signed to take you to 10 billion or above, can those also contribute into the back half of this year?

Massimo Battaini

Yes. The whole market is really demanding more already in '26, and the phasing of Molex and the other hyperscalers' volume growth is consistent with, on the one hand, our speed in expanding capacity in US, and not only US, but certainly the fiber space, and with our speed in reallocating volume from existing customers.

I'll tell you we are proceeding at very high pace both on CapEx and on shifting from fiber to the home to data center. Quarter two is much higher than quarter one in terms of EBITDA and EBITDA margin.

Quarter three would be higher, and quarter four would be higher. This would be a journey that we see our capacity increase immediately released to the market, also our ability to renegotiate existing contracts with fiber to the home adding profitability, but also our speed in reallocating volume from fiber to the home to data center adding additional opportunities.

The run-rate level, as I said before, will be reached in 2030 when the full capacity will be coming online. Sure.

Chris Leonard

That's super helpful. As a follow-up to your earlier comments of margin expansion being quite linear, sort of 25% 30% and confident at the upper end of that range, should we think that 25% is achievable for your 2026 performance in Digital Solutions?

Is that kind of what you're pointing to today?

Massimo Battaini

As a run-rate of quarter four, for sure, because the full year depends on, in quarter one, we had 20% because we were at the early stage of the pricing improvement. If you take what first half, we are probably at 22.5%, 23%.

We will end up slightly higher than 25% in quarter four. Full-year average will be probably south and over 24%.

But '27 will be the full year will be at a higher level of margins.

Chris Leonard

Of course. Yeah.

Thank you. Then finally, going back to Electrification and on the low-voltage side, and thinking about the margin progression here, as we've seen some evidence the European market is picking up, is there any comments you can make in terms of what you see in terms of the pricing opportunity in Europe, and if you think there's going to be any sort of tailwinds in the next few years on what you can do there?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

We count much more on the rebound that we noticed in United States than what we've seen in Europe. Europe is stronger than last year in terms of demand and pricing, but are still pockets of low margins in Europe, and as well there are nice countries with high margins.

The real upside, from what I see, is going to come from stable or mild growth in Europe, volume and margins, significant growth in United States.

Chris Leonard

That's it for me. Thanks so much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Welcome, Chris.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Lucas Ferhani of Jefferies.

Please ask your question, Lucas, your line is open.

Lucas Ferhani

Good morning. Coming back on that phasing of the revenues in Digital Solutions, when I look at 2027, I'm wondering where is the acceleration coming from versus 2026, just because at that point my understanding was that the repricing would be mostly done, and you don't have any new capacity yet coming online on 2027.

Just wondering what am I missing on the 2027 where it seems from the building blocks you can grow kind of more on deliver more incremental revenues versus what you're delivering in '26 where the bulk of the repricing is happening. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Yeah. Thank you, Lucas.

There are three effects on 2027: there will be some marginal debottlenecking on existing capacity that will come online in '27, which will bring additional volume. There will be repricing across the board until we will probably be almost done in terms of repricing everything to the best possible level.

There will be more share of data center business inside our total optical business in Digital Solution. Those are the three elements that will compose the EBITDA growth and EBITDA margin enhancement in '27.

Lucas Ferhani

Perfect. Thank you.

On the $1.1 billion incremental, is that assuming kind of 100% of capacity is used, or is that the visibility you already have from the framework agreement and so there could be upside to that $1.1 billion if you deliver on other contracts?

Massimo Battaini

Lucas, it's basically the same. We took commitment and that will saturate our capacity.

Or we raise our capacity to level of the commitment, they are the same numbers, $1.1 billion is additional revenues, $1.1 billion is the additional capacity.

Lucas Ferhani

Perfect. Thank you.

The last one was just on the free cash flow. It's quite a strong upgrade there as well for the year.

Very strong also conversion of EBITDA versus what we usually see. Just can you help us a little bit on the building blocks here?

Is it just mainly big down payments coming in Transmission, or are there other things to mention for the higher free cash flow? Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

I like to have Francesco giving you the main components of this bridge, 1.350 to 1.7.

Pier Francesco

Yeah. Thanks, Massimo.

Actually, it's quite simple. We have the positive components coming from the additional EBITDA, which is plus $150 million versus the prior guidance.

Of course, you have to take out some tax effect from that. Then, as I mentioned, we are increasingly improving our performance in terms of working capital, stock, receivable, and this will contribute not a very different number compared to the EBITDA incremental effect.

Substantially, these two elements, these two positive elements, will offset the negative metal impact versus what we had already embedded in the guidance, that we quantify in the €250 million. Then what is left are two elements partly offsetting each other.

One is the big down payment coming from Molex, 550, net of a strong acceleration on the CapEx that we quantify in the year of approximately $200 million over the level of the CapEx which was embedded in the guidance. This is leading to the midpoint of 1.7, the plus $350 million.

I don't know if I've been clear on that.

Lucas Ferhani

Yeah. All clear.

Thank you very much.

Pier Francesco

Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Lucas.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Please ask your question, Monica, your line is open.

Monica Bosio

Yes. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions.

The first is on Power Grid. Margins improved sequentially, but they are still a little bit far to the, I think, your target.

Do you expect Can you give us an indication of what do you expect for Power Grid by year-end? Is it 15% margins already achievable?

My second question is still on the down payments and the structure of the frameworks agreements. The company received will receive 550 million of down payment.

Should we expect further down payment payments from Molex, or the next down payments will come from the additional and not yet identified frameworks agreements? Should we model the same let's say, the same weight of down payments that you got from Molex?

In addition to this, as the preform production activity is very energy-intensive, I was curious about the structure of the cost within your framework agreement. Are you planning a complete pass-through to the final customer, to the hyperscalers?

Thank you very much. Yeah.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Monica. Very articulate questions.

Let me start with Power Grid. The only reason why the margins are lags behind the record margin achieved one year ago is because we are in a cost inflationary situation, and we have a lag to pass all cost increases to the market with a time lag.

As long as the cost continue increasing, we will still suffer from this time lag. Should the cost inflation end one day, we will catch up with the 15% EBITDA margin immediately.

The all point is is that the real the real the real question is is the market strong? Because even if you had a good cost price adjustment clauses, if the market wasn't strong, prices would go backwards.

The market is super strong. There's no pricing pressure in the market.

New tenders will be made at a better price. This is a again a temporary, and so we're seeing this mentioned this as a temporary situation which lasted longer.

Is due to the inflation and the Iran war has played into this. Don't be concerned, the market is demanding more voltage, more cables, more capacity, and level of price is pretty sustained.

We will catch up as soon as inflation will ease in the coming quarters. The down payment structure is such that we receive a down payment, and as we start delivering revenues after a certain number of years, we'll have to return the money that we had in advance.

In 2030, '31, we'll give back '32, '33, we'll give back the vast majority of this down payment. The structure of this deal is solid in the sense that, and try and addressing your third question, not only do we have formula to pass on the cost, we have guaranteed volume with take-or-pay and guaranteed margin, because we pass the cost immediately without suffering, on the on the contrary to what I said before in Power Grid, from this famous time lag.

In the given quarter, at the end of the quarter, the price will be adjusted based on the cost increase happened, occurred in that quarter. The margins in terms of dollars per fiber sold will be guaranteed throughout the all period.

Hope this clarifies.

Monica Bosio

Okay. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you.

Monica Bosio

Yes, well clarified. Thank you.

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Monica.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Alessandro Cecchini of Equita.

Please ask your question, Alessandro, your line is open.

Alessandro Cecchini

Thank you. Thank you very much for taking my questions.

The first one actually it's on Electrification. You said that margins were down or slightly up quarter-on-quarter, but due to LatAm.

Could you give us a sort of feeling what are you seeing in the market now from the first half to the end of the year,

Massimo Battaini

if you are seeing some

Alessandro Cecchini

incremental business or just to give some flavor on this? My second question is secondly on

Operator

We have lost the line of the questioner. We will now move to the next question while waiting for him to reconnect.

Our next question comes from the line of Nabil Najeeb of Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question, Nabil, your line is open.

Nabil Najeeb

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

I just had one. Can you give us an update on the secondary listing in New York?

It looks like the plan is back on with work being started on it according to your comments to the press this morning. Do you have a timeline in mind for the listing?

It's

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Nabil. It's still a crucial point and a valid project for us for value creation.

Currently, we are very busy with a lot of stuff, the deployment of this data center opportunity, the contracts, new wave of capacity increase, M&As, it will be remaining our priority, top one in the list, and at the proper moment, we will disclose the timing of this operation.

Nabil Najeeb

Got it. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Nabil.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Uma Samlin of Bank of America. Please ask your question, Wuma, your line is open.

Uma Samlin

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Thank you very much for taking my question. Two for me, please.

First question is on M&A. I guess you mentioned in the interview this morning you're interested in M&A opportunities in the US.

Would you be able to give us a bit more insight on what are the ideal type of business you find most exciting? Does the deal with Molex change your thinking in terms of how interested in connectivity business for you versus accessories?

Maybe we can start from that. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Wuma. Our approach to M&A doesn't change.

Molex is a way to organically expand capacity, is a fast-growing opportunity for us in terms of incremental EBITDA. We are still open to spaces or M&A in spaces adjacent to our cable piece because we want to reinforce the revenues the share of revenues of the company that are solutions rather than just pure cables.

US remain probably the best geography for those opportunities given the high profitability in the market both in Power Electrification and Digital Solution space, but we are also looking at other regions. I'm confident that in the coming quarters, we'll be able to disclose more, of course, at the proper timing at the signing of the projects.

Uma Samlin

That's super clear. Thank you very much.

My second question is on your capacity ramp-up for the fiber production. If I'm looking at slide five from the presentation, it's very helpful that slide.

It seems that you're already planning to have some significant capacity increase by 2028. Is that ahead of your schedule?

How should we think about the phasing of your capacity expansion from there? Then I guess a follow-up also on the second You're talking about the second wave of deals that could be above 10 billion.

How much more capacity would you be able to add on top of that 2x you have announced? What would be the timeline there?

If you do sign those contract, will that be on top of the 1.1 billion revenues then? Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Wuma. Yes.

We will have the run-rate capacity achieved by 2029, end of 2029. Part of the capacity increase will happen in '27 in Europe, the rest will happen in United States where we're planning to more than doubling the fiber capacity located in US.

By '29, there will be this more than doubling. In 20 '28, there will be the first chunk of this more than doubling US capacity, let's say 1/3, 40% of the run-rate capacity will be already implemented by 2028.

If we went for new deals, and this will require additional capacity, we are not thinking to go too wild in terms of extra capacity, but the demand from different players and the usual hyperscalers customer is still unsatisfied. We will for sure sign other deals, and this will bring the incremental revenues, incremental over the 1.1 billion yearly revenue added by 2031 or 2030 of these recent deals.

Uma Samlin

That's super helpful. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Wuma. You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca.

Please ask your question, your line is open.

Alessandro Tortora

Yes, thanks. Hi.

Good morning to everybody. I have three questions, okay, if I may.

The first one, let's say, relates to the Transmission business, if you can let's say give us an update on the let's say second half outlook in terms of tender or award if you expect any acceleration on this front? The second question is on let's say I understood your your comment on free cash flow, if you can help us also to reconnect a little bit with the let's say outlook on the leverage, year-end leverage considering also the incremental CapEx and all the all the fact that you mentioned before on the upfront payment.

The last one is let's say just a small curiosity. You mentioned the hollow-core fiber with let's say this this innovative solution that you are basically under development from a commercial standpoint, industrial standpoint.

Can you give us an update on this if you see let's say in a kind of a short period of time, a five years of time, if you see let's say any update and this solution can be commercialized with the with the existing let's say data center clients? Thanks.

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Alessandro. As far as Transmission is concerned, the second half should be a bit more buoyant than first half.

In first half, we won what was available from the market. Our backlog is still pretty high, 17 billion.

The overall demand in 2026, we estimate around 10 billion in new projects awarded to the market, and we expect to see this level be beaten in 2027, 2028 because there are projects in the pipelines that will in 2027, 2028. I'd like to defer to Francesco the free cash flow for connection to the deleverage at the end of the year.

Pier Francesco

Thank you, Massimo. Based on this update of the free cash flow guidance, we estimate that the year-end net debt will be in the region of 2.3/2.4 billion, which means quite outstanding improvement versus our original expectation.

Actually in terms of leverage, if you take the updated EBITDA guidance, means a leverage of around 0.8 times, a very low leverage.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Francesco. As far as the hollow-core fiber is concerned, we completed, let me say, industrialization phase.

Last week, we were in US, and we handed over this cable, not just the fiber, the fiber in cables to Amazon for an installation trial and testing test that passed successfully. They tried to break this cable in all possible way, and they could not do it, they could not achieve it.

We passed the test, we are now able to scale production to a different level. The demand is high, the level of margins is extremely interesting.

It's all about how fast we can scale this up to a more mass production level. It will never be a solution that account for more than 10% of the fiber market demand, but it would be pretty profitable from this perspective.

Alessandro Tortora

Understood. Just if I may a quick follow-up on this,

Massimo Battaini

I recall

Alessandro Tortora

that you have let's say this agreement or you invested into the Relativity Networks company. You're currently a shareholder of this company.

Assuming that you are going to start commercializing this solution, do you expect to also step up in terms of ownership into Relativity Networks?

Massimo Battaini

Good question. We are discussing this as we speak.

It's far too early stage to make a decision. We want to wait and see what happened in the second half in terms is the ball is on us in our field, we have to speed up the industrialization and additional capacity.

Currently we are producing this in Europe. The ideal place for the roll out of extra capacity will be Claremont, North Carolina, United States, where this demand is located.

Probably towards the end of the year, we will evaluate additional ownership or additional opportunity with Relativity Network in terms of stake in the company.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Thanks.

Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Welcome, Alessandro.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to invite Alessandro Cecchini of Equita for his questions.

Please ask your question, Alessandro, your line is open.

Alessandro Cecchini

Hello. Can you hear me?

Massimo Battaini

Yes, Alessandro.

Alessandro Cecchini

Hello? Perfect.

Thank you. Thank you for this.

I repeat maybe

Massimo Battaini

my question. The first question we got.

The first question we got, you can move to the second and we answer both.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. My last one was I don't know because the line was down about the European opportunities in term of margins, electrification.

If you can elaborate a little bit more on this, if you have plans to restructure or to improve margins in the region. I don't know if you answered in this question.

Massimo Battaini

Yeah. The first question was about the market development in other regions.

In LatAm, we had, we are going through a normalization. LatAm, we had this spike in margins in the last two years in Argentina due to the country situation, and in Colombia.

Now we suffer from normalization, normal things like this. Things that is happened, nothing extremely relevant.

Of course, LatAm weigh a lot in terms of overall profitability because their profitability is pretty close to that United States. Europe, partly answer your second question, is mildly growing in terms of volume growth and in terms of profitability.

We have plans to strengthen the growth through things that we cannot probably disclose too much. There will be some restructure, some additional capacity, relocation, there will be some re-footprinting in Europe, mildly re-footprinting, but will let us strengthen our position in Europe, and also become more efficient in serving customer in a way similar to what we do in US with Encore Wire.

This is more or less the essence of what we have in mind for European margin enhancement.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Welcome, Alessandro.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions, and I'll turn the conference back to the room for closing comments.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you very much, everyone, for your time. I hope you enjoy the call, and hope you'll be also enjoying your holiday in the coming weeks.

Thank you, and see you soon.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program.

You may now disconnect.