Prysmian S.p.A.

Prysmian S.p.A.

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Oct 29Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 26, 2026

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Prysmian Full Year 2025 Integrated Results conference call and webcast.

At this time, all participants will be on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

To ask a question during the session, please press *11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised.

To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Mr. Massimo Battaini, CEO.

Please go ahead, sir.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Welcome all and thank you for taking your time to attend the earnings call for 2025 full-year results.

I will like to highlight the main achievement in '25. You see a record results across all the KPIs, a strong performance in EBITDA with €2.4 billion, which is in itself a €500 million growth in terms of EBITDA over the '24 performance, a strong net income, €1.3 billion, of course supported by the disposal of the YOFC share, but still remain an outstanding net income results, and a cash generation at with a 50% conversion vis-à-vis EBITDA, €1.2 billion, again a record results in free cash flow generation.

The EBITDA margin growth over 2024 to appreciate it that will we wait for the next slide. Strong growth in EPS also with 18%, which is well above the range that we committed to achieving at the Capital Markets Day, that was 15%/17%.

I will jump to the next one to to to display to deploy to display the significant acceleration in our performance. You see stability with slight growth in '22, '23, then a first step-up, €1.9 billion EBITDA, and €2.4 billion this year.

This €500 million is a significant hike in in EBITDA mainly coming from perimeter change, the full recognition of Encore Wire impact in '25, the new acquisition Channell, and the strongest ever performance came from that came from Transmission with €200 million growth in EBITDA. To be honest, there is another €80 million benefit in terms of organic growth in the '25 result that is hidden by the forex that was €80 €80 million, €75 million to be specific, adverse in '25 versus '24.

The I will not comment the guidance now, but you see that 2.7 already position us I would say slightly ahead of what is the target that we have to achieve by 2028, considering that we still have two years to to go. Free cash flow, similar trend, significant acceleration.

€1.2 billion is a very good conversion rate for the current EBITDA. €1.350 is again another step-up.

This definitely position us ahead of the target of 2028. Let me move to the important contributors to the growth of the company the last 18 months.

This is 18-month worth of effort in reshaping our portfolio, making it more suited to our goal to become a stronger solution provider. You see in '24, electrification Encore Wire gave us the access to electrification space in United States, and thanks to that access, now we have a unique asset and unique opportunity to leverage the expansion of data center.

We followed this with the digital relation digital solution expansion of portfolio with connectivity with Warren & Brown in '24 in APAC and Channell in US and also outside US. Lately, we had these two important acquisitions, although small, the [Extera?]

and ACSM. [Extera?]

give us access to the submarine telecom long-distance connection, helping us complement the strength that we have in submarine energy business with submarine telecom opportunities. ACSM is again an important step-up in verticalizing our capabilities and insource one of the most critical phase of the execution of the project, the survey assessment and the route preparation, which will help us become more efficient on the one hand, but even also able to to stand the possible risk that starts that that that comes from the burial depth that always rely on customer survey and not on own survey.

We also work on our portfolio in terms of disposing shares of YOFC, which is not considered any longer a crucial asset for us. We we made a couple of at least direct reduction in the automotive perimeter to help us avoid dilution coming from the difficult time that automotive is living worldwide.

A also standing a remarkable achievement in the Oh, no, I'm the new one. On the on the sustainability journey, our newly defined target is to move to sustainability-linked revenues, revenues that associated to low-carbon products, sustainable solution.

44% is the target is the achievement for '25. Our target for '28 that we declared at Capital Markets Day is 55%.

More than €11 billion, €12 billion revenues in '28, and who knows whether this will be 11 or 12 or more depending on the perimeter change, will be solutions that can offer benefit to our customer in terms of sustainability. Significant hike in the recycled content from 16% to 21%, and we continue our consistent journey of reducing Scope 1, 2, and 3 to achieve and meet our commitment to be net-zero by 2035.

We are also particularly proud of this record 50% achievement in a share of our employees that hold shares in the company, which is a sign of consistent and growing confidence in the future of our company. Let me start with the the star of '25.

There are many KPIs, but I will draw your attention to the right-hand side of the page: 30% organic growth, which equates to almost €800 million revenues in one year in terms of capacity expansion and execution of projects. Second, €582 million EBITDA, €220 million additional to 2024.

The step increase is amazing. Third, the EBITDA margin: 18.3% full year '25, supported by a 21% in quarter four, explains and give confidence and actually show that we are going to beat the target that we set for 2028, that was set at 18%-20%.

We are already there in '25 with an exit speed that goes beyond the range that we set for 2028. Amazing also the growth of the backlog, €17 billion, with €2 billion or more worth of projects that have been awarded to us, that are not in the backlog because they are waiting for the notice to proceed that will come in the next few quarters.

Power Distribution, we continue with a sustained growth in the quarter was pretty strong, 13%; in the full year, still very strong, 8%. Certainly supported by two large regions, US and North America and and Europe.

EBITDA margin full year is slightly down on 2024 because the quarter four is slightly down on year-over-year on quarter four '24. Again, the same point that I mentioned last time, there is this Midwest spike in in cost due to the tariffs, unfortunately, that we could not pass to customer in the overhead transmission space in US because this is a fixed price business.

Now we're moving to different we're trying to find different solution, but until we have flushed out the the old backlog, which was set when the Midwest was lower than this, we will suffer some contraction in the overhead transmission line that has a repercussion on the total power grid space. Electrification is showing a sluggish I&C growth overall, but with a promising growth in quarter four in North America with almost 6% year-over-year growth, which is supported by what we see already in quarter one 2026.

We suffer a lot in terms of organic growth in '25 in this space in North America because the whole market, with the exclusion of data center, the residential and the non- and the non-residential market was 6% down on 2024. These are public number of the spend occurred in US in construction business.

The expectation, the outlook for '26 is much more promising, and the start of the year as well as the exit of the the last month of 2025 are extremely promising. EBITDA margin full year grew by 900 basis points over '24, and this is again the level and the value of the accretion due to the acquisition of Encore Wire in our perimeter, full full perimeter.

Specialty is nothing that it was not foreseen, but is still disappointing. We have full year '24 reported €310 million EBITDA and now 280.

There is a €10 million forex headwind, of course, but beside this, there is a weaker demand in automotive, in elevator, US, and in oil and gas. Contraction of margin in this business has caused this let me say €20 million organic decline.

The rest is the forex effect. The profitability full year remain pretty consistent with the past, and we we have finally disposed the asset that you want to dispose in automotive towards the beginning of this year, January and February, we should not see any longer the dilution coming from automotive, and we hope to see the rebound of the business in the rest of the verticals that we play in in the in different regions.

Digital Solution speaks for itself is a significant growth organic, 7% full year, supported by the rebound of business in United States with stability in Europe and other countries, and then there is the perimeter change that inside the €268 million equate for more or less €100 million is the Channell. You see how accretive Channell is with a fourth-quarter impact which brought the EBITDA margin 5 points higher than what was '24 and the overall EBITDA margin at 17.3% for the full year.

Of course, Channell will continue. It will also, as we did in the optical business US, benefit from the rebound of the market.

Now we can finally work on the integration and leverage the bundling of connectivity cables and leverage the synergies that will allow to achieve thanks to the cross-selling opportunity. Let me hand over to Francesco for more insights into the financial details.

Francesco Luciano

Thank you very much, Massimo, and good morning to everybody. I'll be quick.

The profit and loss statement, as Massimo said, EBITDA closed at €2.4 billion, exactly in the midpoint of our guidance, with a great margin expansion at standard metal price, an expansion of 130 basis points up to 14.2%, driven inorganically by the full-year inclusion, the full-year effect of the accretive Encore Wire acquisition in terms of margin, and also by the inclusion of Channell acquisition since June 2025; organically, mainly driven by the outstanding margin expansion of the Transmission business on a full-year base around 400 basis points, 4 percentage points. Drawing your attention on the right part of this slide, you see the bridge of our '24 to '25 adjusted EBITDA with a total growth of close to €500 million, €470 million despite the adverse forex effect worth €75 million.

Business by business, Transmission was the strongest part of this growth, almost €230 million driven by an almost 30% organic growth and, as I said, an excellent margin expansion. Power Grid also performed well, €24 million growth, net of course cleaned of the forex effect, performing very well in power distribution and in high-voltage AC across all the regions, with only an adverse effect in North America overhead line business, but despite this performed a significant growth.

Also top line organically grew by around 8% on a full-year base. Electrification grew by €176 million, of which I&C contributed more than €200 million, whereas Specialties dropped, driven by weak oil and gas and elevator and automotive.

As Massimo mentioned, a very promising exit speed and start of the year in the I&C business in in North America after the challenging first half, the first two quarters with pretty tough market conditions. Digital Solution, up almost €130 million.

Obviously here we benefit of the inclusion since June of the Channell acquisition, but I like to stress that also organically, and mainly in the US, EBITDA grew significantly on a like-for-like base. The little adverse perimeter effect of YOFC, we gradually exited in the second and third quarter, and as I said, the forex effect.

The other outstanding achievement is obviously net income, close to €1.3 billion. Of course, this includes the gains from YOFC net of tax in the region of €345 million, but still, taking out this effect, the growth from 2024 is really outstanding.

By the way, the €3.31 a share of EPS growing 18% since last year that Massimo already mentioned, I want to be very clear, is totally cleaned of the YOFC gains effect, is a normalized growth of our of our earning per share. We can move to the cash flow generation, and one more outstanding achievement of this 2025: close to €1.2 billion free cash flow generation.

This was also benefiting of some extraordinarily low level of paid taxes in US, benefiting of a couple of positive one-off effects. As you see, we performed really well in terms of working capital changes, down by almost €200 million mainly in the Transmission business and despite the adverse effect of the rising metal price that unfortunately may be there also for for this year 2026 impacting our our cash flow.

You see that we deleveraged down to €3.1 billion debt with the acquisition, which is almost entirely or entirely the acquisition of Channell including the earn-out of €1,069 million, which is almost fully covered by the issuance of the hybrid bond close to €1 billion. You see here, totally taken out from the free cash flow, the effect of the disposals proceedings, €675 million out of which 565 are related to the YOFC disposal.

That's it. Back to Massimo for the outlook.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Francesco. The outlook is pretty straightforward and it is actually very outstanding in terms of confidence and commitment of the company to make it happen.

€2.7 billion midpoint in the EBITDA guidance, which sets a €300 million EBITDA increase over the ending point of '25, but in reality, considering there is €80 million perimeter adverse impact between, there is a €80 million forex effect adverse, it is actually a €380 million EBITDA increase if you neutralize the forex. You see on the right-hand chart that the bridge explain that there is a significant organic growth.

On top of it, there is a perimeter effect which is more or less €80 million. By coincidence, is exact size that needs to be in place to offset the forex impact.

I think it's I would say brave, but we are very confident to achieve it. It's much better than what we've seen across the other peers, not necessarily in the cable space, but in general, and we are very very committed to achieve it.

The free cash flow, even stronger. Again, 50% conversion rate, €1.3 billion, €1 billion 350, well ahead of what we need to be or where we need to be in '26 toward the 2028 Capital Markets Day target.

Confident to achieving both, and continue the journey with organic growth and M&As. The sustainability-linked revenues will move from 44% '25 to 48% midpoint.

One important remark: in our EBITDA, there is not any possible benefit, any, coming from the tariff situation. We haven't seen it yet in the past months, as I told you.

It will take a little bit for the importers to change behavior in the market and allow us to gain share, and we didn't want to build any speculative benefit coming from the tariff situation, which has changed in certain extent, but not much at all. We will see upside, possibly, coming from tariff either coming in months or coming in quarters.

Having said so, I close saying that we confirm the strong drive in Transmission business also for 2026. The Channell integration is a successful integration considering that after concluding the earn-out payment, we have paid this company with a multiple of less than 7, and the synergy will kick in in '26, adding additional accretion to the Digital Solution EBITDA margin.

The outstanding cash generation '22 will in '24 '5 will be supported and in '26 with additional cash flow. The dividend will increase from €0.82 to €0.90, and of course, this is what we see organically.

We keep working on the M&A. When this will happen, we cannot tell you yet, but there will be something happening in the next short terms, let me say this.

Thank you for your attention. I'd like to move on to the Q&A session.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Once again, it's *11 for any question and wait for your name to be announced.

Thank you. We are now going to proceed with our first question.

The questions come from the line of Akash Gupta from JP Morgan. Please ask your question.

Akash Gupta

Yes. Hi.

Good morning and thanks for your time. I have two.

The first one is on guidance. At the midpoint, you target roughly €300 million increase year-on-year in EBITDA.

I guess €140 million of that could be coming from Transmission to get to €1 billion by 2028. I think you said €80 million is coming from perimeter.

Maybe if you can talk about how shall we think about the remaining €80 million between the three segments: Grid, Electrification, and Digital Solution on an organic basis? Same on guidance, your free cash flow guidance imply 50% FCF conversion at the midpoint, which is higher than what we have seen historically, any color on that?

That's the first one.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Akash. Yes, you're right.

Let's call it €300 million net, but in reality, in terms of the offset of the forex, is €380 million. So, 150 yeah, more or less will come from Transmission, the remaining is the €80 million.

This brings us to 230, let's say, and there is another 150 organically coming from the rest of the business. There is some organic growth in Digital Solution because we will continue to leverage on the strong demand in United States, which is driven certainly by broadband deployment, but even more by data center expansion.

They are desperate for additional volume, additional supply in optical space likewise in the energy space. There will be strong growth in Power Distribution.

Despite the blip in EBITDA margin that you've seen in quarter four, which was totally anticipated, the market demand in US for medium voltage and high voltage is extremely strong. We can't cope with this demand.

If we had more capacity available, we would sell it. Luckily, in January '27, we will have the first wave of new medium voltage capacity coming on stream in the Encore site.

This will be a powerful combination: the service level of Encore with the power of medium-voltage cable for I&C, industrial construction, Power Grid. Power Grid will also grow.

Electrification, as said, we exit quarter four with a strong rebound in I&C North America. Not followed by Europe.

Europe is pretty weaker in I&C currently, but North America rebounding in quarter four is what also we notice in quarter one. I don't think has nothing to do with the tariff, if anything is due to the contraction that the market suffered in 2025 that finally is resulting a surge in demand in 2026.

To cut the story short, there will be organic growth planned in our €2 billion 700 coming from all businesses. Of course, with much more visibility in Transmission, but with strong market demand in I&C North America, in Digital Solution North America, and in Power Grid Europe and United States.

I defer to Francesco the answer on the 50% conversion.

Francesco Luciano

Yeah. Thank you, Massimo.

Ciao, Akash. No, definitely let me say an ambitious, but still totally realistic target on which we are very confident.

Let me first of all remark that already 2025 is very close to the 50% conversion rate. This improvement in free cash flow that at midpoint is around €180 million versus the 2025 actual will come first of all from the additional EBITDA, if you take the €300 million additional EBITDA net of tax, this contributes around €220 million, €230 million.

Then we will certainly have higher cash taxes. I mentioned that 2025 was kind of supported by a particularly low level of cash taxes in US.

This will come back in 2026. This means that we are committed to further improve our working capital.

As I said, in 2025 most of the improvement came still from Transmission, and this will be a little bit different in 2026. We think that in 2026 we have pretty significant room to recover and to gain efficiency in terms of working capital.

This will be key in order to deliver the €1.35 billion free cash flow guidance.

Massimo Battaini

To give you a little bit of more nuance, there is not any reduction in capex that support the free cash flow generation. If anything, in '26 we continue with a strong capex deployment across all businesses because this time we continue with Transmission, we continue with Power Grid, we need to add Digital Solution.

We are at capacity in fiber and in cables, and so we will maintain a level of €800 million capex also for 2026 to support the organic growth across all the three businesses that I mentioned.

Francesco Luciano

Let me also add one point that I missed, that with this kind of cash generation in '25 and expected for 2026, our net debt will be in the region of 2.6, 2.65, including by the way the two already announced acquisitions which are worth an effect increasing our debt by €210 million, €220 million. This means that year-end 2026, our leverage will be lower than 1 based on the midpoint of the guidance.

That's really a great situation to be in, and I would say a better situation than we expected.

Massimo Battaini

Much more better than expected, yes.

Akash Gupta

Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.

Please ask your question.

Daniela Costa

Hi. Good morning.

Thank you. I have three questions.

I'll ask them one at a time. The first one, just wanted to ask on Power Grids and on this what you call the temporary metal headwinds.

Maybe can you quantify how much the hit was, and then should we expect that they will no longer be there from 1Q onwards?

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Daniela. Yes, the effect is temporary because it's due to the Midwest spike in your Transmission where the price is fixed.

I can tell you the number was for the full year, but basically impacted the quarter three and more in quarter four was a $30+ million worth of costs or margin contraction. The hit is visible at the group level because the Power Grid North America accounts for let's say 2/3 of the total EBITDA margin of the group.

It will be there also in quarter one because the Midwest keep increasing, and we still have significant volume associated to backlog that we landed in quarter one and quarter two '25 when the Midwest was pretty low prior to the spike due to the tariff. We'll see it in quarter one and mildly in quarter two.

Gradually, we will come out because what we are quoting today, the landed project that we are landing today for execution in quarter three, quarter four, have a fantastic margin, as you can imagine. Until we have flushed out the order backlog, we will be in the same situation.

That's why we call it temporary.

Daniela Costa

Got it. Thank you.

Then I think you very clearly don't have in your guidance the tariff benefit. We have already seen I guess on the market data in copper wire and cable imports into the US, like the November data was down massively on the imports.

We don't see very strong growth in your US Electrification business yet in Q4. Can you explain, is it because it's a different mix, maybe you're more indexed to things which haven't been included in the codes which haven't been included in the tariff yet?

Is it just timing with distribution? Sort of how should we think about that data versus what you are printing in the US?

Massimo Battaini

To full answer, in the copper space, there are no tariff at all. The tariff are applied to metal and not to the derivative products, and this seems not to be the intention of the administration, the market is still free as it was before.

Everyone is bearing the extra cost of the copper, of the cathode premium and the copper COMEX, and the market is the same as before. This is the space where we didn't expect to have any potential gain from the tariff.

On the contrary, in the aluminum building wire, we still have this 232 tariff applied to the metal content of cable imported from importers. For the time being, we haven't seen a real change in behavior.

They basically swallowed the costs of the 50% in their margin, in their price, the importers, the distributors importing cables from overseas. That was my point.

I don't know how long they can continue with this margin contraction. They haven't increased significantly their price.

Yes, it's true they had increased a little bit their price, but we still have a significant price gap, like 15%, 10%-15% between our price in the US and their price coming in. Maybe they will not be able to bear the current margin contraction for too long, which is what we hope, but that's why we didn't speculate on the possible advantages coming from this tariff.

We're seeing it, to be honest, in the last two months a different trend in the aluminum building wire space inside Encore, whereby we've been able to raise prices and we didn't lose volume, and we didn't lose share of wallet. This is a first tiny sign of possible advantage, but again give us two or three, four more months to see if this trend materializes as a strong trend.

Daniela Costa

Got it. Thank you.

Then just on some of the recent M&A you did, it seems like you've been these two deals bolt-ons on submarine telecom cable or submarine fiber cables, which is an area you weren't very present on in the past. Can you talk through about sort of the synergies you see on that area, the potential for growth there is out there, why yeah, maybe give us a bit of context of sort of how relevant this might become in the future in the group?

Yeah. Sure.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Daniela. Interesting question.

The the space we were in we were in in submarine telecom was only the regional connection without repeaters. The market is made the market 100, only 10% of the market is confined to regional short-distance connection.

Without repeaters, we cannot play in the big market, the long-distance interconnectors. The market has grown a lot on the back of the expansion of data center and AI buildup.

We will with the repeaters provided by [Extera?] , be able to amplify the optical signal in our cables and be a player also in the long-haul connection.

We have access, thanks to this technology, to a market that was for before forbidden to us. We have all the rest of the know-how: the cable we have, the installation capability we have.

This was the piece that we needed to be considered a player in the market. We will So today, we make not big number, we make €100 million revenues in this submarine space telecom space without repeaters.

The addition of [Extera?] will help us grow significantly this scale in the submarine telecom.

Daniela Costa

Got it. Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Daniela. You're welcome.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. It comes from the line of Vivek Midha from Citi.

Please ask your question.

Vivek Midha

Thank you very much, everyone, and good morning. I have three, and I'll go one at a time.

Thanks very much. The first question is just a follow-up on your comments around the aluminum cable business in the US, potential for upside there driven by tariffs.

Some of the press reporting from the Financial Times had suggested the US government had been considering rolling back some of the metal derivative tariffs given the difficulty of implementation. In your conversations with the administration, do you get any sense that the current situation could change?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

No, we have no sign of possible changes to the current discipline as far as the 232 tariff is concerned. The only change would be the reciprocal country tariff, as you said, due to the Supreme Court ruling.

This will have a minor impact to our competition and or to our situation in the US. I think we still positive about the fact that being local with a strong asset in terms of capacity and also lead time, and bear in mind, I'm not saying this for the sake of saying it, data center requires significant service with large-scale capacity.

If you could take share in the market off the others, it's because we can respond, thanks to the spare capacity we have in McKees Rocks, to this demanding data center requirement in terms of volume and service. We are really not worried and we don't care much about importers.

The aluminum building wire is a small space in the total I&C space United States. Secondly, the strength that we have, thanks to acquisition, are unique that no one inside the United States, any of the player in the United States can copy, nor anyone from outside.

Vivek Midha

Thank you very much. Very clear.

My second question is around the very healthy demand in the US for fiber, particularly from data centers. Could you give us an indication of what you expect the potential growth in the US could be, and also just a view on where you stand versus your capacity?

Are you capacity constrained in the US given that you're investing in capacity right now? Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

The demand remains as strong as it was in 2025, we continue with the same pace. If anything, we see even more demand from data center because now they are worried about ability of supplier to supply energy cable and optical cables, and we are entering into some deals with those hyperscalers to provide security of supply and receive some down payment in return.

Cable demand for energy cables is stronger, cable demand for optical cables is even stronger. We are about to unlock investment in fiber capacity and optical cable capacity because we, as everybody else in the United States, are at capacity.

If you wanted fiber in the US, you don't find it. If you wanted fiber outside US, you don't find it either.

Not only from US player, but also from Japan, from China, from anyone. The market is extremely tight, and this is the best condition for us to leverage, on the one hand, pricing power and also technological leadership that we have in the optical space, which is well recognized by the hyperscalers.

Vivek Midha

Very clear. My final question is on the technology side again for data centers.

Do you have any sort of more views or color on the potential implications for your business from the transition to 800V DC architecture? Any sort of views around the impact on the length of cable required, the value of the cable, and so on?

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Is a technology that we develop already, the 800V direct current solution. Yes, it is true, if this shifted from AC to DC, which is a kind of no-brainer because they will save a lot of losses that the current AC solution incur, there will be a reduction in volume, but at the same time, the growth of data center is so large that even if specifically per megawatt will see a reduction, there will be more compensation coming from the additional demand.

Anyway, we own this technology, we were one of the first to develop, we'll be happy to see and to participate to this conversion, which will never be deployed at scale, by the way.

Vivek Midha

Okay. That's great.

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Vivek.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Monica Bosio from Intesa Sanpaolo.

Please ask your question.

Monica Bosio

Good morning, everyone. I hope you can hear me.

I have three questions. Ciao, Massimo, ciao, Francesco, and Cristina.

The first question is on the data center revenues. Massimo, you anticipated that the weight of the data center revenues will achieve 10%, but what is the timeframe do you have in mind for this weight, and what kind of margins should we figure out for the data center?

This is the first question, and then I will move to the other. Yeah.

Massimo Battaini

Yes, we achieved already in '25 a level of $1 billion direct sales and half a billion indirect sales. We believe that at the current pace, we will hit the €2 billion target in 2026, 10% of the total revenue.

The margin is a bit of a complex situation. It is very high margin in Digital Solution with the sophisticated optical cables.

It's also very high margin in medium voltage, powerful cables to interconnect buildings and connect data center campus among them. It's of course lower margin in low-voltage cable, but it's lower relative to medium voltage.

In Electrification with asset like Encore, we supply low-voltage cable to data center and we make 15%, 16%, 17% EBITDA margin, is a very accretive margin in one word.

Monica Bosio

Okay. If I may ask, maybe I didn't get, within the I&C USA business in the fourth quarter, can you outline the margins in North America?

Because the exit speed was strong, but I didn't manage to

Massimo Battaini

capture properly

Monica Bosio

the margins.

Massimo Battaini

I didn't mention the margin, I believe, but was as strong as quarter three. Quarter three was particularly strong due to the spike of tariffs that played in our favor when the copper tariff were removed, but given the strong demand in quarter four and despite the normalization of the copper price due to the tariff removal, we still had, when I say high, it means in the high-teen digit numbers.

Monica Bosio

Perfect. Thank you.

The very last, it's more qualitative. Let's say that the consensus is close to the midpoint, even a little bit higher to the midpoint of the new guidance.

What are the main assumptions behind the upper part of your guidance range that could move toward the upper part?

Massimo Battaini

There are two strong variables that in a way or the other have an impact on our result. One is the forex.

Should it strengthen, we will have, of course, much more chances to beat the midpoint and go beyond even the top of the range. Second, more organic growth, which is what we've seen in January and February.

As I said before, two months doesn't tell us the whole story, we have to wait a few months to see if there is a stronger growth continuing in the coming months. As I said before, we didn't bank on any tariffs, if tariff came in, we will be in a different scenario.

If the tariff benefit, as someone imagined, and I think some of you imagined hundreds of millions of benefits from tariff, and I think this is a bit ambitious as an consideration, but if the tariff were to impact the business in US, there would be significant upside beyond the current guidance.

Monica Bosio

Yes. Correct.

Very clear. Thank you.

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome, Monica.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Uma Samlin from Bank of America.

Please ask your question.

Uma Samlin

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Thank you very much for taking my question. My first one is a follow-up on your tariff comments earlier.

I think, if I heard correctly, you said that you haven't seen much of behavioral change from the imports, but you have started to raise prices without losing much market share there. What's your strategy going forward in terms of the balance between market share and pricing?

If you are raising prices without losing market share, then can we expect some margin tailwinds here?

Massimo Battaini

We sit today on a very good margin in I&C North America. This margin is split between different segments: in copper business, is extremely high regardless of tariffs; in the aluminum business, it was not that high in quarter four.

As said before, we raised prices and the market followed, and we didn't lose market share. This all depends on the balance between price and market share depends on the market demand.

The market demand, as said, rebounded. We foresee, talking to our customer and talking also to data center customer, a stronger outlook for 2026.

All the conditions are there for us to benefit from a continued strong growth with high margin across the board on all the I&C segment of business.

Uma Samlin

That's super clear. Thank you very much.

My second question is on M&A. I guess you are interested in doing a bit more deals in the next year or two, and what are the types of targets you're interested in and what are the top key markets you have in mind?

Massimo Battaini

We have explored and we are still assessing different geographies and different opportunities in three main regions. Let's start from priority one, US; priority two, Europe; priority three, LatAm.

Different size of business, different size of opportunity. In which businesses?

We have Electrification as a of course interest in space in US, but equally also Power Grid. In Europe, will be also Electrification and Power Grid, and LatAm is pretty much the same.

The businesses that are involved in this M&A are the ones that I mentioned. Then priorities or not priorities, where to find the right one, and proceed with the negotiation of the rest, but these are the area where we focus on business-wise and geography-wise.

Uma Samlin

Thank you very much.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Sean McLoughlin from HSBC.

Please ask your question.

Sean McLoughlin

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

My first is on Transmission. The margin trajectory continues to surprise.

You're already over 18% in 2025. What is driving this?

Is this just execution? Is this just better operational leverage on your increased capacity?

What kind of further improvements can we expect in '26 and how far ahead could we be coming versus your 2028 target? Thank you.

That's the first question.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Sean. You mentioned two key factors, certainly the operational leverage and the execution, which is an important driver of margin increase.

The third one is the project's margin that we have in our backlog is better than what we executed in 2025 or '24 or '23. We will continue leveraging the three factors.

Where we could be in '28, at a certain point, we will go out with a new Capital Markets Day not because we organically want to change '28, but because hopefully there will be a perimeter change. At that point, we will unveil and reveal the expectation for this EBITDA margin in Transmission business.

Of course, as I said, if you achieve already the, let's say, 20-ish level of EBITDA margin in quarter four 2025, the expectation that it will go well beyond what we committed to at the Capital Markets Day. By the way, there's another player here that in Europe, and mentioned very ambitious margin in Transmission by 2030, we want to beat that player just to give you a sense of the ambition.

Sean McLoughlin

Fantastic. Thank you.

If I can just continue on Transmission, just if there's any sign of change from your Transmission customers in terms of absorbing the 30% increase in copper prices over the last three months, thinking out over the next years, if there's been any change in terms of capex ambitions, project timelines as a result of that?

Massimo Battaini

I think the Transmission TSOs, transmission system operator, has to digest the wave of order and the significant surge in order intake, orders that they sent to the market in '23. We don't see a slowdown in itself.

We see that for the next five years, we are flat out in terms of capacity and we are flat out in terms of delivery of the backlog, and the level of market we see will remain around this €15 billion in the coming years. Of course, project cost has increased due to the copper, but also some project are in aluminum, and don't don't get me wrong.

I think the point is we are all we are all focused on execution: us and the transmission system operator. That's why we don't anticipate to see another wave of €30 billion market intake as with the as the one we've seen in 2023, but the market continue with this 15 billion per year, we will be able to lead beyond 2028 with sustainability of EBITDA margin, sustainability of EBITDA, and possibility to further expand the capacity to absorb this continued demand in Transmission business.

You never know, one day Sorry, Sean, to cut across. One day, we might have more Transmission opportunity also in US.

I appreciate that the wind offshore is off the table in US, but thanks to data center, Transmission interconnectors are becoming the key priority to spread the electricity capacity across different network and allow data center expansion to continue.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you. Just lastly, on M&A, I saw a press quote earlier where you were quoted saying you're ready for large targets.

I guess higher free cash flow is driving this ambition. Just in terms of is this a change maybe from previous communication?

You talked about deferring large M&A out for the next couple of years. Should we infer that you're now a little bit more ambitious on larger targets sooner?

Massimo Battaini

Good question, and to be honest, yeah, for sure it's a change, but we have many factors making us open to this change, like the disposal of YOFC that's been a particularly successful operation. Second, the performance in EBITDA in 2024 '25, sorry, and performance in free cash flow.

We are deleveraging faster than anticipated, and so, as as we delever faster, we have more power, ammunition to address large M&As. Larger, as we always say, is something similar to Encore Wire.

Don't think of something that is like a CommScope acquisition. We are ready, then.

Also be aware that between starting the M&A and having the opportunity to come on stream, it will take six, eight months, but we are ready to go for large ones.

Sean McLoughlin

Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Sorry, I said CommScope to say not Channell. CommScope is a large M&A that had analyzed one year ago, but was too large, and so we will not go for €10 billion M&A, that's to clarify, but €3 billion, €4 billion M&A is something that is within reach.

Sean McLoughlin

Brilliant. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

You're welcome, Sean.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The question come from the line of Christopher Leonard from UBS.

Please ask your question.

Christopher Leonard

Yeah. Hi there.

Two from me as well, please. Starting on the M&A point, I know you said Europe was maybe second in line in terms of geographies of priority for you.

Could you maybe comment if you can see the opportunity for margins to improve and expand across the Power Grid and Electrification business within Europe without M&A, or would you think M&A and the consolidation in the market that M&A could offer would be an important driver for you to improve that European margin? Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

I think your comments are correct. Now organically, we can do a lot in terms of increasing the EBITDA margin because the demand is so strong that we are working and expanding capacity, there will be more pricing power, there will be more efficiency and more operational leverage.

Of course, the M&A remain the main catalyst for a significant step-change in profitability because when you combine two companies, there are plenty of synergies: cost synergies and commercial synergies that will help the EBITDA margin enhance pretty fast.

Christopher Leonard

Thank you. It's really helpful.

Just the second one was a follow-up on the fiber market and optical cables in the US. I know you're investing more here, but could you speak about any kind of metric for what your capacity is today in the US and what you're seeing in terms of what the potential increase could be?

Secondly, I think historically you've said you're in the data center market, you're slightly different to Corning appear in the US. I wonder, because now there's a lot of capacity booked out, is there scope for you to maybe win share to move inside the data center?

I think previously you've said you were more outside data center on the fiber business, but yeah, any color there would be helpful. Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

We will not share much about our capacity and the increase, but definitely the market has grown by a factor of 30% between '25 and '24, and we will like to maintain our share of wallet. You can derive what will be our capacity effort increase to meet and maintain the market share.

Data center, it's not that we are not in the data center, we are not in the inside building. We deploy a lot of optical cables to connect the individual buildings of a campus among them.

Inside the building, there's a lot of connectivity and less cables. In that space, there are basically two players: Corning and CommScope/Amphenol and AFL.

We have opportunity to grow in this space, but not in hyperscale data center, but in enterprise data center.

Christopher Leonard

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Alessandro Tortora from Mediobanca.

Please ask your question.

Alessandro Tortora

Yes. Hi.

Good morning to everybody. I have three questions, okay, from me.

The first one, if you can come back a little bit to the let's say profitability expectation on the Digital Solution business considering that in 2026, we will have the full consolidation of Channell, but also a lot of the synergies that you mentioned, also because no you were expecting also no some organic improvement into let's say the legacy business. The second question is related to your comment on the approach that or discussion you are having with the US hyperscalers.

We also saw in the past and the recent past some deals signed by the peers, no, with Corning. Is it something considering your broader portfolio that you could do in the sense do you see let's say the same business possibility for you?

Just signing some multiyear framework agreement? This is let's say the second question.

The third question is on the perimeter effect. Can you just let's say tell me exactly because if I understood well, okay, we will have no the eight months consolidation of Channell, then ACSM, now this Spanish one, also [Extera?]

, no, should be there. Just to understand the perimeter, how the contribution let's say between no the acquisition you made.

Thanks.

Francesco Luciano

Okay. I take this.

The first one on profitability of Digital Solution for 2026. It's not only Channell.

Certainly Channell is a great accretion. By the way, Channell obviously will impact on a full-year base on 2026, adding five months to the seven months of 2025.

We definitely expect a growth organically also, driven by the very strong US market that we are seeing, which is not only volume, we expect also pricing to improve. We have a dual component of this profitability enhancement that we expect for Digital Solution.

Of course, the synergies also coming from the Channell deal, which are definitely interesting in terms of cross-selling opportunities. Maybe this is more potential expansion of our top line than margin accretion on the synergy side.

Alessandro Tortora

Mhm.

Francesco Luciano

The second one on US hyperscaler. US hyperscaler, I think that certainly for the inside data center, we would need to strengthen our product range.

The discussions that we are having is more for outside the data center, driving basically all the fiber connections to transmit data to data center, but this is also the so-called long-haul business. This is also a very strongly growing business.

Not only inside, where definitely to improve our product range, we would need maybe also a perimeter change, but we are organically mainly focused on long-haul growth also talking directly with the hyperscalers.

Massimo Battaini

Spot-on. I understand that we are having discussion about framework agreement, capacity reservation fees or kind of this stuff down payment to provide security of supply to this hyperscalers customer.

Not necessarily only in the optical space, as Corning did with by the way, was Meta, not Microsoft, but also in the energy space.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Thanks.

Yes, sorry, and on the perimeter effect, just if you can help me let's say to reconcile, no, the contribution we expect this year?

Massimo Battaini

It's told you question is about the three components. The Channell is pretty simple.

You take the €100 million we mentioned for '25, seven months, and you extrapolate it to full year. You will basically end up with €60 million additional EBITDA coming from Channell.

Alessandro Tortora

Then

Massimo Battaini

there is a kind of €25 million coming from the combination of the two, ACSM and [Extera?] , but also to take into account another change of perimeter adverse, which is the YOFC disposal, which account for €10 million, and so you end up with a number that we mentioned, right, €80 million: 60 plus from Channell, 25 from [Extera?]

, ACSM, minus the YOFC share.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Thanks.

Sorry, just because I forgot let's say one point to ask. Can you help me let's say to understand the level of pricing effect, no, we are going to see this year in let's say the Power Grid, I&C, due to the recent increase in copper prices?

Because I see Southwire now mentioning basically every week raising prices. I recall that you are some kind of price-setter in the field, just to understand if we are talking about a high single-digit price component at top-line level for you in this division.

Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

The level of price is difficult to say because it depends on the cost, we have a formula in the Power Grid that allows us to pass on by Power Distribution, high voltage, that allows to pass on entirely the cost effect to the price. In terms of demand, you see strong Power Grid demand in North America as well as in Europe, and so the level of price would be pretty robust not only due to the cost

Alessandro Tortora

pass-on,

Massimo Battaini

but also due to the demand. I&C, as said, is still weak the performance of Europe.

We see stable in quarter one '26 over quarter four '25, but in United States, the market is pretty buoyant, as said before. There is a combination of two factors: the rebound of the non-residential business in US compounded by the strong demand in data center, making the I&C and medium voltage business for I&C customer in US very strong.

Alessandro Tortora

Okay. Thanks also for the extra question.

Thanks.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Alessandro. You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you. As a final reminder to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

To withdraw your question, please press *11 again. Once again, it's *11 to register a question.

We are now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Jean-François Granjon from ODDO BHF.

Please ask your question.

Jean-François Granjon

Yes. Thank you.

Good morning. Just one question regarding the capex.

Could you make an update on the capex spend expected for 2026? You have communicate on the accumulate capex until 2028 to 2.6 billion.

What will be the range of the capex expected for 2026? Could we expect an average between €600 to €700 million or different amount for the capex expected in 2026?

Thank you. You

Massimo Battaini

didn't capture that the question is about '26 or the future, sorry,

Jean-François Granjon

Jean?

Massimo Battaini

'26. '26?

For

Jean-François Granjon

'26,

Massimo Battaini

€800 million. Sorry, Jean, if you can repeat the question.

The number for '26 is €800 million, which is in a slight increase over 2025. '27 number would be pretty much the same.

We would probably exceed a little bit, given the additional organic growth needs that we see in this three years. The Capital Markets Day overall cumulative numbers because the demand in Transmission is stronger than expected, in Power Grid equally, and Digital Solution is definitely much stronger than anticipated in the original capex commitment for the Capital Markets Day.

If that was the sense of your question, sorry.

Jean-François Granjon

Okay. Thank you.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time, I'll now hand back to you for closing remarks.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you for attending this call. It was a pleasure to share with you this exciting results in '24 and, more importantly, the outstanding commitment for the '20 2026 target for our company, which we ensure we will honor and we commit to achieving, and possibly let's wait a few months to understand how the market will respond in United States especially, and for further update, we'll meet you at the end of quarter one.

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating.

You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.