Operator
Welcome to the Rémy Cointreau 2025-2026 fourth-quarter sales presentation. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode.
During the questions-and-answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on the telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to Luca Marotta, Deputy CEO and CFO.
Please, sir, go ahead.
Luca Marotta
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As highlighted in our press release, Q4 sales grew by 8.9% organically speaking, including 4 points of Chinese New Year calendar effects.
This performance reflects a strong growth of Cognac, +15.5% including 7 points of Chinese New Year calendar effect positive, mainly driven by China, which benefited from a favorable base of comparison, including the end of the disruption in the Chinese duty-free. As a reminder, it was clearly present the previous year in Q4.
Clearly, another positive element, which is the good resilience during Chinese New Year. In parallel, Americas recorded a moderate decline due to high comps in the US and some phasing effect specifically in Canada.
Second important point to highlight and to explain this +8.9% Q4 performance, a stable performance in Liqueurs & Spirits division, -0.1%, which reflects a solid momentum in the US and China, but more contrasted performance in EMEA on the back of phasing effect. Q4 sales increase breaks down as follows: volume decrease of 2.4% and +11.3% of price-mix effect.
Largely driven by mix on the back of strong outperformance of Cognac versus Liqueurs & Spirits. This performance brings the annual growth to +0.2% in line with guidance and represents +1% growth excluding the duty-free impact in China at yearly level.
This was the broad picture. Looking at the overall sales performance by region, Americas is up +7.2% on 12-month basis, which include a slight decrease in sales in Q4, mostly driven by negative phasing effect in Canada and high comps in the US.
APAC is down 4.3% on a 12-month basis, of which 2 points of duty-free disruption impact at yearly level. In Q4, APAC generated a very strong growth led by China, despite soft consumer confidence and tightening regulatory environment.
Indeed, clearly, we have to acknowledge the region benefited from a low base of comps and around 12 points of Chinese New Year calendar effect, but at same time, a very good resilience during Chinese New Year. It's not only comps or technical effect, that's the message.
In parallel, rest of Asia performance was weak, affected by tough market condition. EMEA was down 3.1% this year and continue to display mixed performance in Q4 as well as consumer adopted a more cautious approach.
One last word, a little bit more transversally on Travel Retail, global Travel Retail across all the regions. The business unit, more than a division can we call it, was up by low double-digit over the year, including a strong double-digit growth in Q4 led by APAC, also considering the low base of comps, and EMEA.
This was sell-in, shipment. Now let's talk of value depletions group-level, best approx of sell-out.
In the US, value depletions declined by mid-single-digit year-on-year over 12 months, of which a decline of mid-single-digit in Q4, including a decline of low-single-digit in volume. In China, value depletions were down low to mid-single-digit year-on-year over 12 months, but up low-single-digit in volume on yearly level.
Looking inside Q4, value depletions recorded a very strong double-digit growth, helped as well by a positive calendar effect. In EMEA, value depletions decreased by mid-single-digit year-on-year and up low-single-digit in Q4, clearly influenced by the performance of the Cognac.
What we can say in a nutshell? Overall, 12-month group value depletions fell by low-single-digit year-on-year, slightly underperforming sell-in trends, +0.2%.
This is not true if you look at the absolute value, because in absolute value we realized a clear destocking as the generated outflow in depletions was bigger than sell-in inflows. This is mainly driven at yearly level by the US.
I'll be back on that point during the presentation, also in the Q&A, because it's a very important point. Percentage growth or decrease in depletions and in sell-in are now sit on a basis in which depletions in value are bigger than sell-in.
Is clearly an health checkpoint that has been ticked. To conclude on the first slide, we are confirming our full-year COP guidance, and we expect an organic decline between low double-digit and mid-teens, including tariffs.
After this big entrée, hors-d'oeuvre, turning to page number 3, a quick note on the Chinese New Year, very important for us clearly, which was obviously a key factor in Q4. Marketing environment in China remains highly complex with continued pressure from alcohol restriction measures and still a subdued consumer confidence.
Despite this challenging backdrop, group has delivered its objectives and achieved a slight growth in value depletion, I repeat, a slight growth in value depletion on a comparable basis, i.e., Chinese New Year '26 versus Chinese New Year '25, adjusted for calendar effect. We can say that seems that the Year of the Horse has brought us a little bit of luck, and that our Centaur has been perceived as particularly relevant even if considering the context which is not yet totally straight and linear and positive.
This performance stands out in the context of a sharply declining market, and therefore represents a real achievement. However, we shouldn't declare victory too soon.
The market remain challenging, and it's a daily battle for our teams, and in the near term the road ahead will still have a few bumps along the way. At this stage, I'd like to thank warmly Chinese teams for their strong execution and the multiplication of impact activation on the ground for a Chinese New Year that was, considering the context, not bad at all.
Turning to slide number 4, full-year sales, back to arid figures, amounted to €995.3 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of €49.3 million, or -5% on a reported basis. This performance was shaped by the following factors: an organic growth, clearly, of +€2.1 million, +0.2%, this performance is split between +3% of positive volume effect and -2.8% of price-mix.
Price-mix is negative, mostly impacted by price, while mix was slightly positive. Second point, and as expected, a negative currency translation impact of €51.4 million, or -5.2% in terms of loss linked to the foreign currencies, mainly driven by the deterioration of US dollar, which accounted for €29.2 million, and for €15.2 million linked to the Chinese RMB.
Now slide number 5, let's delve into organic trends by region. Starting with the Americas, in which organic sales increased by 7.2% this year, down by high-teens on a six-year basis.
This year-on-year performance include a mid-to-high single-digit growth in volume and a slight growth in price-mix, mostly driven by mix at yearly level. In the US specifically, inside Americas, sales grew by low-to-mid single-digit in Q4, mostly driven by Liqueurs & Spirits despite a high base of comparison.
In parallel, on the depletion sell-out side, Q4 depletions continued to improve sequentially in volume year-on-year, versus to Q3, for instance, and specifically at - low-single-digit, representing a decline of mid-single-digit in value. This is encouraging, but clearly not enough because it's still negative.
Overall, full-year value depletions stands at - mid-single-digit, significantly less negative than last year, but still negative. In this context, inventory level in the US is slightly improving, remaining in terms of months that, as it's an incomplete compounders of measure, at 4 months at the end of March.
Inside Americas, there's also Canada, in which sales were down by very strong double-digit in Q4, impacted by concrete and real phasing effect and destocking. Conversely, in Latin America, sales were up by low-to-mid single-digit in Q4, mostly led by Cognac.
End of March, Americas accounted for 39%, 3-9, of group sales, 2 points more than the previous year. Second region in terms of weight, we know now APAC, in which organic sales declined by 4.3% year-on-year over the year, but increased by high-teens on a six-year basis.
In the short term, Americas +7, APAC -4. In the longer term, longer view clearly, down high-teens for Americas versus 19-20, increased by high-teens on a six-year basis.
Analyzing the volume value equation of the region overall, all brands included, the performance was mostly impacted by negative price, while volumes were stable. Inside China, sales were up by very strong double-digit in the last quarter, helped by low comps and a positive Chinese New Year calendar effect, as said, of 12 points at APAC level.
What we can say to give some more colors that against persistent soft consumer confidence and regulatory consumption restriction, Chinese New Year depletion proved to be resilient on a comparable basis. Looking at the channels, growth mostly driven by wholesaler, direct e-commerce, and PCDs.
In parallel, global value depletions were down low-to-mid single-digit year-on-year, but up low-single-digit in volume. This yearly performance includes a very, very strong double-digit growth in the last quarter.
Given depletions are more or less in line with sell-in trends in 12 months, inventory levels in China remained healthy across most of the brands at the end of this fiscal year. Elsewhere in the region, in APAC, rest of Asia recorded a decline of mid-teens in Q4, impacted by Cognac in a challenging economic environment, and on side fierce promotional activity.
By the end of March, APAC accounted for 38% of group sales, down 2 points compared to the prior year. Americas 39, and APAC 38.
Finally, the last region in terms of weight, EMEA, had organic sales down by 3.1% over the year and around - high-single-digit over six years, primarily reflecting a negative mix effect. In this big region, we have many sub-clusters.
Let's start with third-party distributors, in which sales were slightly down in Q4, mostly impacted negatively by Germany and more generally, in all the countries represented in the cluster, by weak consumption trends driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical context. In the UK and Nordics, sales were slightly up in the last quarter, mostly driven by Nordics.
UK was impacted by tax rises, a tougher market, and some additional impact on high brands for the promotional intense activity. In Benelux and France, sales were up by low double-digit in Q4, led by Cognac and to a lesser extent Liqueurs & Spirits, particularly in Netherlands.
Last but not least, MIA and CIS, sales were down by double-digit in Q4, impacted by high base of comparison in Africa and to a lesser extent by the Middle East conflict. For the full year, value depletions were down mid-single-digit in EMEA, but up low-single-digit in Q4.
Overall, this is a slight unbalance picture determined that inventory slightly increased. End of March, EMEA region accounts for 23% of group sales, flat versus the previous year.
Now let's turn to slide number 6 and analysis by division, starting with queen, which is the Cognac. Cognac division posted an organic sales decline of -0.5% over the year, almost flat, driven by 7.8% increase in volume and negative price-mix of 8.3%, equally split between mix and price.
End of March, Cognac accounted for 61% of our sales, down 1 point compared to the previous year. It was the overall picture, but let's start with APAC region, the biggest one for the Cognac, and specifically with mainland China, in which sales grew by very strong double-digit in the last quarter, helped by low comps, positive Chinese New Year calendar effect at 7 points at Cognac level specifically.
Despite a market marked by soft consumer confidence and regulatory consumption restriction, Chinese New Year depletion showed, I repeat, but it's very important, resilient trends, slightly up versus last year on a comparable basis, benefiting from the continued success essentially and mainly of Rémy Martin Club. Elsewhere, Macau reported a weak performance as wholesale continued to face cash constraints.
Hong Kong sales were up strongly, showing slight improving underlying trends, while Taiwan was slightly up. Overall, in terms of depletion, 12 months value depletions were down mid-single-digit year-on-year and slightly up in volume.
The performance includes a very strong double-digit growth in Q4. In the rest of Asia, sales were down by very strong double-digit in Q4, affected by challenging economic environment and strong promotional pressure.
Second region by weight, which is Americas, and start with North America, Canada and US, in which Cognac sales were down by mid-single-digit in Q4, impacted by continued destocking efforts and base of comparison and also the Canada impact. In parallel, depletions remained negative, but showed a sequential improvement in volume Q4 versus Q3.
All along the year, we witnessed that. Mainly driven, and this is very important in terms of ranges, by Rémy 1738 and XO.
Depletion variation on VSOP was also quite a positive one because stable versus the previous quarter despite a slowdown of the category. Overall, not yet in a positive lens, but continued ongoing improvement.
Q4 US value depletions were down mid-to-high single-digit, of which down low-to-mid in volume, a touch better in volume compared to value, and 12-month value depletion included -3 points, we can see that on negative price-mix year-on-year at the end of March, but on a six-year, price-mix remain positive, +9 points. In Latin America, sales were up by very strong double-digit in Q4, driven by Rémy VSOP and Rémy XO.
Last but not least, EMEA region inside Cognac, sales grew by low-single-digit in Q4. Inside that, we can say that UK and Nordics were up by mid-to-high single-digit in Q4, driven, once again, by Rémy VSOP and Rémy 1738 with market share and new listing gains.
Europe three-party distributor was up very strong double-digit in Q4, including some positive phasing and calendar effect. MIA and CIS down by strong double-digit, impacted by high comps in Africa and also specifically Cognac, Middle East conflict weigh a bit, while Benelux and France were up very strong double-digit.
Lastly, full-year EMEA value depletions were down mid-to-high single-digit versus last year, but up very strong double-digit in Q4. Overall, an acceleration in the Q4 in terms of Cognac depletions.
Digging into Liqueurs & Spirits division, slide number 7. Liqueurs & Spirits division reported +2.8% organic sales growth in the '25-'26 fiscal year, driven by a solid volume increase of 2.6% and a slightly positive price-and-mix effect of 0.2%, mostly linked to a positive mix.
End of March, Liqueurs & Spirits accounted for 37% of sales, increasing 1 point versus previous year. Now let's review the division performance by region, starting with the biggest one, which is Americas.
In Americas, let's start with North Americas, in which sales were up mid-single-digit in Q4, driven by Cointreau, Botanist, and Bruichladdich. Q4 US value depletions specifically of Cointreau and Botanist were up by low-single-digit.
This is positive, huh? Is not only an improvement, it is positive, which is clearly a good performance given the current market.
Additionally, the price-mix was down 2 points compared to the previous one for the 12 rolling months ending March, but increased by 15 points, more than the Cognac, on a six-year basis. In Latin America, sales were down for Liqueurs & Spirits division by low double-digit, impacted by high basis of comparison.
Second region in terms of weight for Liqueurs & Spirits is EMEA, in which sales were down by mid-to-high single-digit in Q4 following a very strong quarter in Q3 due to phasing effect and had also promotional activity. Talking about the division again, the flat performance, -0.1%, has been driven by this performance of EMEA, clearly much more than the other two regions.
Breaking sales down inside EMEA, UK and Nordics were up low-to-mid single-digit in Q4, led by Cointreau, Bruichladdich, and Botanist, reflecting also greater pricing agility and new distribution listing. Europe third-party distribution down, clearly, by mid-teens in Q4, and the two negative countries in terms of performance were Germany and Greece, more lack of promotional space.
Last but not least, Benelux and France up mid-single-digit. This quarter, Benelux and France, even if is not so big at group scale, we are highlighting positive performance, were up mid-single-digit, while MIA and CIS down double-digit.
This was sell-in. In parallel, 12-month value depletions were down low-to-mid single-digit versus last year, a slight increase in inventory Liqueurs & Spirits division in Europe.
In APAC, Liqueurs & Spirits division performance was clearly driven by China, in which sales were up by very strong double-digit in Q4, driven by Bruichladdich number one, and to a lesser extent Cointreau. Full-year value depletions were down by high-single-digit, but basis were unbalanced, depletion already bigger than sell-in.
Remaining part of Asia was up by low-single-digit in Q4, supported by Japan, mainly Bruichladdich and Cointreau, while Australia, New Zealand continued to face tough economic and geopolitical and market condition. Last but not least, non-group brands represent 2% of group sales were stable in ratio year-over-year.
They recorded an organic decline 22%, 22.4%, affected by Benelux and the UK. Almost finished, and then we'll switch to Q&A.
Let's now turn to slide number 8 and '25-'26 guidance. Today, we are reconfirming our operating profit guidance.
In a nutshell, we expect an organic COP, operating profit, to decline between low double-digit and mid-teens, including tariff in the US. In addition to this organic performance, there are also currency effects, and we reconfirm the previous expectation between €25 and €30 negative million euro in terms of impact.
One final word on our transformation journey, Rémy Cointreau Forward, or RC Forward. As mentioned in our last press release the April the 8th, the program is now effectively underway.
This plan marks a decisive step forward, aimed at regaining momentum in its market and maximize the potential of our brands. Our objective is to clearly decouple ourselves from macroeconomic trends and realize a self-help story given the ongoing volatility in the global economic and geopolitical environment.
Through this plan, whose full effect will be delivered over the next 3 years, our ambition is to generate value in every action, every single action we undertake. Can be in distribution, in the way we invest in A&P, or through greater centralization.
Setting clear governance rules also as well between brands, market, and corporate function is also a key component of the program. We look forward to meeting with you, and clearly our CEO Franck Marilly, on June the 4th to share our ambition in terms of value creation of RC Forward.
Thank you for your attention. Now I am happy to answer to your question.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue.
Operator
You are kindly asked to limit yourself to two questions only. The next question comes from Richard Withagen from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Please go ahead.
Richard Withagen
Good morning, Luca. Good morning, Célia.
Two questions from me, please. You continue to invest in the US and in China in the past year.
Is there any reason to change the investment materially as we enter fiscal 2027? Are there any markets where you intend to increase or decrease your investments?
Then the second question is on the announcement from early April, the launch of the transformation plan, you also include some changes in the organization. The top structure may look a bit complex with a steering committee, some cross-functional roles, et cetera.
How do you make certain that decision-making remains effective and quick if needed?
Luca Marotta
Thank you for your question. In terms of speed and shift between A&P or global investment, not only A&P, can be also CapEx, specific overheads, also on revenue growth management, the all pack in terms of region will be progressively increased in the major pocket of growth.
In China and the US, we still have some deep blue ocean to fulfill. Also increasing the support of emerging markets, new ways of building the growth inside new territory.
We need to balance that to fuel a top line which is a strong part of our future plan, because clearly we need to improve the top-line efficiency and productivity to be able to support this increased footprint in A&P. In terms of choices, is might be more clusterized with a clear call in term of brands than in region.
We will clearly, even more than the past, make some prioritization call in term of brands, not division, entering inside division, and so ranges allocation. This might be changing, and clearly it will be discussed and delivered during the Q&A in the future session because it's part of the not only transformation plan, also the mid-term plan that, as will be also clearly delivered in November.
I will say support new region, increased for some deep blue ocean inside the US, China, Travel Retail as well, in which we have strong ambition and emerging markets, but more twisted, maybe, and more opinionated and clear call than before in terms of brand prioritization. The organizational changes we made is quite the opposite in our opinion.
It is the way of working that are behind allows to have a clear call in term of accountability, focusing a region and brands on their core activities, and avoiding to think of sometimes back office, of accessory activities that are disturbing the attention on the realization. What it seems to your eyes, I get it, an increased complexity, in reality it is a more clear allocation of where the decision are taken and the execution, and the management or the ownership of the profit and loss, free cash flow, even more important than before, and balance sheet key elements are designed and where they are realized.
To do that, we needed to put them in a clear way. At least this is our will and our goal.
Richard Withagen
Okay. Thank you, Luca.
Operator
The next question comes from Thomas Halls from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thomas Halls
Hey. Good morning, Luca.
Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, you've highlighted the Middle East impact within EMEA alongside weak consumption trends in specific markets driven by the geopolitical context.
Could you provide a bit more color on the size of the impact that you saw throughout the quarter and any of the impact seen on Travel Retail? Then secondly, perhaps a question for the full-year results in June, but following some of the headlines we've seen related to US tariff reversals, how should we think about the impact going forward to Rémy and any retrospective adjustments to prior-year impacts in the US?
Thank you.
Luca Marotta
Thank you so much. Middle East impact at the full-year basis has been not so important, I didn't highlighted that as a technical factor because we are talking 1 or 2 million.
If I want to be trying to get up with the company consensus at all price, I would have lightened that as a technical factor, it was not the name of the game. It is minor.
What is more important is the disruption not in term of figures, in term of confidence in all the ecosystem of European level, not only in the specific region they are affected, because it's part of the wider geopolitical momentum in which the ongoing uncertainty weigh on the ability to carry a little bit more stock even if you have some compounders that is blooming. It's more a disturbing element on the way we are working than in the actual figures.
We built the budget just before conflict started. We did not adjust that because at group level, so far, touching woods, is not a major in terms of financial impact.
It is more disturbing in terms of the way we operate today and clearly logistic reinventing logistically the different route to market and the way we are refurbishing our key market and key customers. Travel Retail, we had a good year.
We have a strong ambition. Clearly, conflict once again, not only in terms of ability to fly, but also in terms of people working, people being able to stand, to have a base of consumption which is organically growing might be impacted in terms of global attitude.
Far, once again, our results are not showing that, and touching woods, we have no technical factor to highlight, more global negative cloud in terms of ways of working. Can you repeat me please your question, the full-year consensus?
I didn't get if it was a specific one on the US or for more what we are thinking in term of our full-year consensus 2025-2026 in term of operating profit at company level. Please precise your question if you may.
Thomas Halls
Yeah. No, sorry.
The second question was related to the US tariff reversals headlines that we've seen. How we should think about that in the context of the group going forwards, and then any retrospective adjustments to impacts from this year?
Luca Marotta
Yes. Technically speaking, but I cannot comment specifically on the value because it will part of the results the presentation the June the 4th, I will highlight the impact on the specific closing.
Far, it is estimated to €25 million, 20 and 5, 20 for the US and 5 for China, for past and affecting. What we are expecting in terms of the future.
Are we expecting to be reimbursed? Department of Justice filed a declaration with the Court of International Trade, CIT, on its proposal for Custom Border Protection to implement refund process, and we followed that.
On April 20th, Phase 1 has been followed by our team to began a call for tariff refund, and as such, as our custom broker filed on our behalf what will be expected as a refund in the 60 to 90 days. News are evolving clearly every day regarding the US tariffs in terms of application, in terms of the ability to get the money back.
As such, more pragmatically, we have not yet included any kind of refund in our budget '26-'27. Clearly, this is an our serious hypothesis all along the Q1 or maybe Q2 when the refund should happen, because it's 60 to 90 days, we are talking between end of June and mid-July.
When I see the color of money, I will react, in a word. Which tariff do you expect for '26-'27, which is not the reimbursement, what we took into account?
Considering to the strong volatility of the environment of the rules also for US tariff, we prefer to adopt a very cautious approach when building the '26-'27 budget, and we did not change it. As such, we forecasted, we include in our expectation 15%, 1-5, of tariff from Europe and 10% from UK and Barbados, and we did not include any refund.
What does it mean? Refund happening could give us additional means to support the top-line journey and the operating profit journey as well, and as well budget expectation might change according to the change of tariffs.
Can be positive, if it stands positive, can be negative. I don't master that.
I can only be transparent with you and adjust our expectation. We are clearly calling at this stage for a cautious approach because situation is clearly is still very complicated and cloudy.
Thomas Halls
Thank you.
Operator
The next question comes from Trevor Stirling from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Trevor Stirling
Hi, Luca. Hi, Célia.
Two questions from mine, please, and looking really for a bit more color on your two key markets, Luca. The first one, in the US, you've seen slightly better trends on 1738 and XO, but does that imply that actually it's your US African American consumer that remains the pain point and that's where the weakness is?
The second question then on China, just looking for a little bit more color on that slightly up depletion trend. Is that excluding the reopening of Chinese duty-free, so that really the underlying demand you're saying is slightly up?
Luca Marotta
Thank you. I didn't get the sound on the first one.
Can you repeat on the US trends?
Trevor Stirling
Certainly, Luca. The US trends, you say that 1738 and XO were doing a bit better than the Rémy Martin VSOP.
Does that imply that your pain point, the big area of weakness in the US, is your African American lower-income consumer? Is that the big area of weakness in the US in terms of underlying demand?
Luca Marotta
Thank you. No, I don't think so, because it's more that VSOP stabilized after an increase, Q4 equal to Q3, in terms of variation, modification, quarter-over-quarter is more skewed to 1738 that was clearly suffering more than VSOP in the in the in the short term.
We highlighted that for 1738 and XO because they were suffering more than VSOP in the short term. It's not imply a structural change of the consumption base or the consumer switch eventually, we want to highlight that.
It's more that after having stabilized VSOP with specific A&P and pricing agility program that, even if it move slowly than expected, started to pay, I don't say dividends, but to payback a bit, and now stabilized, 1738 and XO, they were a little bit trailing, running behind, recovered in the quarter, and I hope that will continue because they have their importance as well. VSOP, it is cash cow, the other are the the the clearly even more interesting in terms of margin, an acceleration that can play an additional role in terms of our journey in profitability and in valorization on depletions and sell-in as well.
That is why I highlighted that, because it's very is a positive twisting point. It doesn't mean that VSOP is is weak.
No, it's stable. Does it mean that we lost a part of the consumption base?
If we have lost it, it's already lost in the last two years. We didn't lost it additionally.
China underlying trends, no, it's not only technical. If consider overall the factual Chinese New Year performance was strong, distinctly positive, but need to adjust that for calendar effect, a bit of of of of duty-free impact, which is positive, but stripping out all that remain slightly positive.
A touch clearly compared to competitors and market that were negative. Without being too positive, because I know the market is still very complicated, very volatile, very fragile, what you want, it was not the Chinese New Year of the of the century, but we had and we gained market share.
We were able to realize a better performance than the market and our biggest peer.
Trevor Stirling
On the underlying, wholesaler
Luca Marotta
was more solid. Which kind of channel?
It's very important. Not only this time e-commerce, direct e-commerce, D2C and B2C and and PCD, but also some wholesalers, which is the indirect part, which means slightly, touching woods, a regaining of confidence in terms of the intermediary channel, which is always an important small positive sign.
In terms of ranges, clearly Club has been the king of Chinese New Year for our performance. Thank you very much.
Operator
The next question comes from Ashutosh Jain from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Ashutosh Jain
Hello. Good morning, team.
Thank you for taking my question. Just one for me, please.
Can you comment on the level of promotional activity you are currently seeing in Cognac, particularly in the US market? How are you responding to the excess inventory and pricing pressure across the value chain?
Specifically, we would be interested in understanding whether introducing lower value or, say, more accessible SKUs in the US is part of the solution? Thank you.
Luca Marotta
Thank you for your question. Small formats and convenient offer are part of our not solution, we'll say, offer to the market taking into account lower level of spending revenue by the consumer without changing totally the DNA or our spectrum.
It is at this stage a clear switch, but more for tactical than a definitive, ultimate switch. We'll be bigger than before, but we remain in a wait-and-see attitude to see if we have to go further than we realized or we need to stop that.
It is an adjustment more than a clear inflection. In term of promotional activity, it's still very strong.
Some peers stopped to decrease the official list price, this good point, but promotional activity is still very strong and can we witness that also with the difference, the distance of performance state-by-state. The more fierce promotional states witnessed the highest volatility.
Let's take Illinois. 12 months ago, we realized a big, a very big performance of four or five quarters, and then we have a huge up and down like everybody else.
When you have big volatility in some key states that are affected by fierce promotional activity, it demonstrates that it continues to be there and to impact the performance. In the long term, need to be stabilized to be able to have not on a price offer which is clearly calling for a consumer habits that more stable than before.
It is solved, the promotional competition environment and pressure? Not at all.
Are we reacting, in which way to that? In the last 12 months, after two years remaining clearly right in our shoes, we decided it was better to try to step out and to walk a bit becoming a little bit more flexible.
We increased a bit the promotional activity, and we also right-sized sometimes the price of some key ranges like VSOP at $49.99 in the major part of our key markets. Last, but not least, depletion footprint in the US is and will be probably also clearly influenced by the change in route-to-market and distribution footprint that we are witnessing, for us very important, with some distributor deals that are changing with some switch from RNDC to Reyes, new actors, new way of working by our peers that will play clearly a role in term the ecosystem in terms of depletion and retail level.
The positive point seems to be that the new operators, even if they don't have a very strong experience in Liqueurs & Spirits, they have a lot of financial solidity, robustness. They want to win in this race, and also, we think the global market will be can profit about this additional weapons put on the field.
Ashutosh Jain
Very clear. Thank you so much.
Operator
The next question comes from Tilly Eno from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Tilly Eno
Hi. Good morning, Luca.
Thanks for taking my questions. Just one quick follow-up on China.
Obviously, a lot of moving parts with the Chinese New Year timing, but that's slightly up year-on-year. Do you see that as a sort of sustainable, reasonable run rate in China, or was there any kind of concentration of activity around the Chinese New Year period?
Then just my second question, given the input cost backdrop, have you seen any impact on your distribution or logistics costs yet, and anything just on how you're thinking about that? Thanks.
Luca Marotta
Thank you. Can you repeat the second one, the backdrop of what?
Tilly Eno
Input cost inflation, just rising energy costs, if you've seen any early impact on distribution or logistics costs.
Luca Marotta
I start with the second one. Input costs are slightly increasing, clearly, because the effect also the conflict and the global geopolitical situation.
Far, it remains at a very reasonable level and manageable inside our building blocks and the compounders that we used to define this fiscal year. It's the reason why I confirm the guidance and they are not calling to change the budget footprints.
Quite manageable. Yes, some negative, but manageable.
In terms of China, what is underlying, it is something that we can build on quarter-after-quarter, too early to say. Q1, talking about the short term, clearly is a small quarter, we might have in China some volatility, positive, negative.
Market is still tough, day-to-day battle, I'm moderately optimistic, but I cannot grant so far that the positive underlying Chinese New Year performance will be continued all along the year. It will be part of the 4th of June discussion because clearly is a clear hypothesis on which our guidance '26-'27 will be built.
We will do whatever we can to realize another positive year compared to the market condition. Base of comp in Q1 are quite tough in China, remember as well that.
Moderate optimism.
Tilly Eno
Great. Thank you very much.
Can I just squeeze in one more, just on EMEA Liqueurs & Spirits? I think you mentioned inventories were slightly higher.
Should we expect that to unwind in Q1?
Luca Marotta
Yes, a bit, but it's not high, there was a slight increase. Considering that and some specific country situation, a complex situation in term of promotion as well, i.e., Germany, might wave a bit on the Q1.
Yes. The answer is yes.
Tilly Eno
Great. Thank you very much.
Célia d'Everlange
We'll take our last question from the line of Gen Cross of BNP Paribas.
Gen Cross
Hi. Good morning, Luca.
Just a couple of questions from me. Thank you.
The first one is just on the balance of value depletions relative to organic sales that you expect in FY '27. You've explained the dynamic where you've obviously had growth in your Americas like-for-like sales this year, despite the fact that depletions are negative and inventories have come down, you've destocked inventories.
Do you expect the next year the value depletions and like-for-like sales will be more aligned? That's the first question.
The second question is just on China. You've already touched on the fact that the market is still quite soft and you're outperforming quite significantly.
Just looking for a little bit more color on if you've seen any change at all in the Chinese market and whether there's been even a modest improvement in consumer confidence? Thank you.
Luca Marotta
At this stage, we are seeing starting with the second one, a Chinese market which is not yet stabilized more than is changing. In terms of all the indicators we we have, quantitative and qualitative, are not are not showing this kind of structural movement.
It's more that the market is globally globally more complex, we need to focus on a daily battle, and I know it's not totally satisfying for you as an answer because I cannot give you a grand positive, negative on the visibility in the next four, six, 10 quarters. It's more quarter-by-quarter, momentum-by-momentum.
In term of value depletion, let me Sorry? It's okay?
Because I see some I hear my voice returning, coming back. I have an echo.
Okay. I need two or three minutes because this is very important point and drives yourselves also to '26-'27 in term of simulation of consensus without giving any guidance.
Okay. Let's start.
On a full-year basis, depletion variation has been, talking about percentage, worse than sell-in: sell-in +0.2%, depletion value negative. Basis were not comparable in absolute value, consider the strong destocking over the last two years, and we continue to destock.
If you compare the flows in million euro at the same valorization by SKUs, apple-to-apple, we have destocked more or less €35 to €40 million in the fiscal year '25-'26. The inflow in sell-in was lower than the outflow, mostly driven by the US.
This is yearly level. Now, in a nutshell, the absolute value of depletion is bigger than absolute value of shipment.
That's the reason why, in the future, you don't have to overreact overall if you see a percentage of growth of depletion which is lower than shipment like this year, because it not does doesn't mean that there is automatic restocking, and vice versa. What we I didn't highlight in the presentation, but it's very important to understand, Q4 dynamics were also giving that: value depletion up low double-digit, higher in percentage and absolute value than sell-in, is even more healthier.
In Q4, the destocking was very strong as well, even bigger than the destocking €35 million of yearly level. This was mostly driven by China, which is an additional positive health check.
Why that? Because the overall year was US, and the short term was China.
The compounders in the short terms, without giving certainty for the future, are going in the right way mathematically speaking. Does it mean that I can give you all today guidance?
No. What we can say, it's important for you to help to have some some strange discussion the 4th of June and later on.
Let's talk consensus that you have on Visible Alpha today for, for instance, for '26-'27. Sales is 4.5%, if I'm not mistaken, and operating profit it is 6.5%, 6.8%, something like that.
It is right? It is wrong?
As you have understood, my speech was more focused on the short term to the visibility. This is early stage, too early to discuss about this because we publish our full-year result in June, and we'll discuss analytically with Franck Marilly about all that, taking into account quantitatively also the RC transformation journey.
Already you can consider the global equation is very complex for next year for everybody, and involves several moving parts, positive and negative. Let's start with the top line.
We have some positive expectation in terms of strong will of growth in term of sales, depletion, and sell-out. I don't give you numbers, I give you what we highlight, what we are looking for.
At the same time, always in top line, I can't not acknowledge that geopolitical, economic context is very uncertain and volatile. You have strong will, positive, economic context, something that I cannot manage 100%, which is negative.
What is the balance between the positive and the negative? This will be condensed, compensated, put together in a recipe, and discuss the 4th of June.
Same thing, even more complicated, for operating profit. Several factors should not be underevaluated because they can have an impact.
Impact is not by definition negative; it can be positive and negative. US tariffs.
US tariffs has two souls: refunds, 2026, maybe lower the rate compared to budget, but can be also negative if it's an increase in the rate and no refunds. I have to cope with that.
Far, cautious approach. Clearly, even more complex to to to analyze today, it is the contribution of RC Forward transformation plan in year one.
As we said, we are looking for a lot of clear goals on the span of 3 years. Year one, it is '26-'27, it's a matter also of phasing.
On this is something which is quantitatively positive, clearly, in term of top line and term of return operating profit, but also on not in a negative, but in the ways we are operating, learning by doing, coming back to the first question, applying new ways of working between brands, markets, and corporate function, because we will behave and we will act and operate in a different manner. For a company, when you have this kind of changes, there is all always some time of adaptation.
I will not tell you if the consensus is right or wrong. I only give you some food for thoughts to understand that you have a lot of moving parts on a positive and our commitment and on the negative of trade side.
Gen Cross
Thank you, Luca. Thank you.
Operator
There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
No.
Luca Marotta
Thank you so much for your attention. It was a call highlighting that we realized our guidance.
Some of you said there was a small miss. I prefer to highlight that there were three-quarters that are positive of four in the last fiscal year.
I'm happy also to celebrate small, small positive element after three years of negative perception or result, at least in term of operating profit, because will be clearly negative this year as part of the guidance. That's also what we realized positively, the not half empty, but half full glass.
We will capitalize on that, and it's very important to have our global discussion with Q&A on the magnitude of RC transformation plan on the June of 4th and what are the implications in the short terms for the guidance '26-'27 in a complicated and unpredictable world. VUCA continue to be here, clearly.
We have to cope with that, all of us. Thank you so much, and have a nice day.
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