JSW Steel Limited

JSW Steel Limited

1,185.50
INR
-34.50
(-2.83%)
116.79EPS
11.81P/E
2.99TMarket Cap

Q3 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 23, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the JSW Steel Q3 FY '26 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during this conference, please signal an operator by pressing "*" and then "0" on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwin Bajaj, Group Head of Investor Relations.

Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Ashwin Bajaj

Yes, thank you very much, operator. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.

Welcome to JSW Steel's earnings call for Q3 of FY 2026. We have with us today the management team represented by Mr.

Jayant Acharya, Joint MD and CEO; Mr. G.S.

Rathore, Chief Operating Officer; Mr. Arun Maheshwari, Director of Commercial and Marketing; and Mr.

Swayam Saurabh, the CFO. We will start with opening remarks by Mr.

Acharya and then open the floor to questions. With that, over to you, Mr.

Acharya.

Jayant Acharya

Good evening, everyone. Let me begin by talking a little bit on our strategy.

JSW Steel has adopted a prudent strategy over the past years and has created significant value for our shareholders, actually for all our stakeholders. On 3rd December, the company announced a strategic joint venture with JFE Steel Japan for its BPSL steel business.

With this transaction, JFE will take a stake of 50% in BPSL steel business at an equity value of 31,500 crores and an enterprise value of 53,000 crores. This transaction will enable a cash flow of 32,000 crores and a substantial deleveraging of about 37,000 crores for JSW Steel.

This partnership allows us to grow the BPSL business with our project expertise and operational excellence and bring in the JFE technological expertise to be able to produce variety of value-added products. It will also allow JSW Steel to accelerate the growth across its portfolio of assets in a financially prudent manner to meet the demand growth in India.

Today the board has approved a 5 million ton steel plant at our new site in Jagatsinghpur, Odisha. The project will be housed in our subsidiary JSW Utkal Limited and will entail a capex of 31,600 crores with commissioning by FY '30.

This project is the first phase with expansion potential to go to 13.2 million tons. We already had commenced setting up two 8 million ton pellet plants, you will recall, at this site, and a 30 million ton slurry pipeline is under construction by JSW Infra, which will transfer the iron ore from the mines to the plant.

This is a port-based facility with our own captive jetty, and coupled with the iron ore through the slurry pipeline, this is an extremely efficient location in terms of our overall logistics cost. Together, these milestones significantly accelerate our capacity growth plans.

We are well on track to reach 50 million ton in India by FY '31, other than the BPSL business. With India steel demand rising rapidly, these strategic steps put JSW in a very strong position to grow responsibly and sustainably in the years ahead.

On the macroeconomic fronts, you would have seen the IMF has given a outlook of about 3.3% growth in 2026 and kept its outlook the same for 2027. The resilience in the global economy in spite of the ongoing uncertainties is a mention which IMF has given in their commentary.

The momentum is being supported by strong tailwinds from AI and technology investments. Growth is also getting a further lift from supportive policies and easing financial conditions.

With advance GDP estimates in India pegging the growth at about 7.4%, we remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. While global headwinds persist, the Indian government has provided various policy support measures and policy reforms.

Alongside recent trade agreements, this bodes well for our medium-term prospects. We are seeing a strong post-GST momentum in consumption, further aided by income tax cuts and benign inflation.

Rural indicators remain positive, driving strong tractors and two-wheeler sales. Central government capex, while was low in October-November, but is up 28% April to November due to a strong H1.

The annual capex target looks to be on track. While residential sales have remained somewhat soft, the commercial real estate shows a robust movement.

Conditions for private capex is increasingly becoming conducive, supported by a healthy balance sheet and RBI's recent rate cuts and lower inflation. India's steel consumption continued to grow with a nine-month growth of about 7%, though Q3 was lower at 4.6%.

However, the December demand on absolute number was about 14.5 million tons, and the demand in the quarter four, on a seasonally strong demand and restocking, looks good for volumes in the quarter ahead. Looking ahead for the year FY '27, the demand is projected to grow in the range of 7% to 9%.

On the policy front, the government has taken steps to arrest unfair trade by imposing anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coils from Vietnam in November and CRNO from China in December. A safeguard duty has been finalized in December '25.

This will enable the local domestic industry to get a level playing field in India. In China, the steel production was down 4.4% Y-o-Y in CY '25, a decline of about close to 44 million tons.

However, their exports, including semi-finished steel, surged 14% to 133.5 million tons, primarily due to a weak domestic consumption. The elevated exports kept Asian prices subdued in 2025.

Looking ahead, the anti-involution measures which have been taken up by the Chinese government, export licensing, and some production moderation which we see should help support the regional prices in Asia. Moving to sustainability, JSW Steel, I'm happy to mention, was ranked number one in the global steel sector in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment and continues to remain a part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

Our focus on energy efficiency was also recognized at the 35th National Energy Conservation Awards 2025, where our Dolvi unit was awarded India's best-performing unit by the President of India, and BPSL received the certificate of merit. We continue to progress on energy transition with 1 GW of renewable capacity commissioned.

We have already got the approval for 2.5 GW generation and a 320 MWh of battery storage, which is in various stages of construction. On the technology front, we commissioned India's first diesel to battery-converted locomotive at Vijayanagar.

These initiatives underscore our commitment to sustainability across our operations. On the digital front, JSW has deployed AI-based vision systems that monitor conveyors, sinter flames, flare stacks, and equipment in real time to improve yield, efficiency, and reliability.

These digital solutions are delivering substantial impact through cost savings, reduced emissions, and preventions of over 1,000 safety incidents. This system is deployable across multiple locations, and with additional use cases, we see the potential to save 100 crores per annum.

On the projects front, apart from the board approval for our new plant in Odisha, let me briefly update you on the other projects. At JSW Steel Vijayanagar, we reached a key operational milestone as the 5 million ton plant is now fully ramped up.

The 1.5 million ton BF-3 upgradation at Vijayanagar remains on track for commissioning by the end of quarter four FY '26. At Dolvi, the phase three expansion from 10 to 15 million is progressing as planned, with completion expected by September 2027.

Technical and commercial discussions for equipment is underway for the 1 million ton electric arc furnace and structural mill announced for Kadapa last quarter. Our value-added product capacity across Vijayanagar, Khopoli, and Raigarh are progressing steadily.

The board has today approved 0.2 million ton tinplate capacity and 0.36 million ton capacity for GI and GL lines at our downstream units in Rajpura. Together, these value-added expansions will add about 4 million tons of flats and longs, complementing our steelmaking operations.

This reinforces our long-term growth strategy and strengthens our competitive position as it adds to our value-added product portfolio. Strengthening our raw material security has been one of our key strategic priorities.

We have 23 iron ore mines, which we have mentioned earlier, out of which 12 have been operating. During the quarter three, we have commenced the production from the 0.5 million ton Cudnem mine in Goa, taking the total number of operational mines to 13.

Once our mines are operationalized, coupled with some enhancements of existing capacities, we expect to produce about 50 million tons per annum, which will cover around 50% of our total iron ore requirement by FY '31. On the coking coal front, we have secured three mines and coal linkages in India and taken a stake of 30% in the Illawarra coking coal, PLV mine in Australia, which together will provide us about 5 million tons of coking coal.

This will meet around 25% of our total coking coal requirement in FY '31. Additionally, we are in the process of acquiring the Mozambique MDR high-grade coking coal deposit.

This transaction is expected to be closed in quarter four of this calendar year, by March. Therefore, the raw material side, we are strengthening both from iron ore and coking coal perspective.

Moving to our operational performance, we reported a strong operational performance amid the ongoing uncertainties. Our consolidated crude steel production stood at 7.48 million tons, up 6% Y-o-Y for the quarter.

Our Indian operations delivered a production volume of 7.28 million tons, up 7% Y-o-Y. Production was down sequentially due to the blast furnace three at Vijayanagar being under shutdown for the capacity enhancement.

Utilization of our Indian operations stood approximately at 93%, excluding the BF-3. What it underlines is the consistency in the capacity utilization at JSW Steel across locations.

We have been more or less at 90% or above across quarters. During quarter three, we achieved our best-ever sales, both from a consolidated as well as in Indian operation point of view, increasing by 14% Y-o-Y.

This was mainly driven by the volumes from JSW BPSL plant ramp-up to its full capacity. Our domestic sales rose by 10% Y-o-Y in quarter three and 12% in the first nine months, well ahead of India's consumption growth.

This has enabled us to increase our market share. We have also liquidated 0.3 million tons of inventory during the quarter.

The other positive is that the value-added product sales were the highest ever at 4.54 million tons, growing 16% Y-o-Y, and forming about 61% of our total volumes, including JSW BPSL. The deliveries to the auto and renewable sectors were also at all-time highs.

If you look at our financial results, the consolidated revenue stood at 45,091 crores, with adjusted EBITDA of 6,620 crores. The EBITDA per ton was close to 8,700 and a margin of 14.4%.

The reported EBITDA for the quarter stands at 6,496 crores. During the quarter, steel prices were at a multiyear low and adversely impacted realizations.

Coking coal costs were higher by $5, in line with our guidance, while iron ore provided a slight cost benefit due to better blends. While margins were negatively impacted during the quarter, we were able to mitigate a drop in prices through higher value-added product mix and cost efficiencies.

Our Indian operations delivered a total adjusted EBITDA of 6,522 crores and EBITDA per ton of close to ₹8,800 per ton, with a margin of 15%. This was enabled by strong growth in domestic sales and better value-added product mix.

The US operations delivered operating EBITDA of $3.1 million, which was lower primarily driven by lower volume due to the plant shutdown at Ohio for the caster upgradation project and lower NSR for the plates. For the nine month of FY '26, US operations have reported an EBITDA of $36 million, a substantial improvement versus an EBITDA loss of $32 million last year.

Italian operations delivered an EBITDA of 5.3 million during the quarter. During the quarter, the total EBITDA for our overseas operations was at 122 crores.

Unrealized forex losses stood at 124 crores, which impacted the overall profitability during the quarter. With the enactment of the new labor code, the required changes in employee benefits have had a one-time impact of 529 crores, which has been shown as an exceptional item in the profit loss account.

The consolidated PAT stood at 2,410 crores, compared to 719 crores in quarter three of last year. This profit in quarter three is after recognizing net deferred tax assets of 1,439 crores related to the slump sale of BPSL steel business undertaking.

Net debt was at 80,347 crores, and our debt ratios improved versus the last quarter. Net debt to EBITDA stood at 2.91, and net debt to equity at 0.92.

Our weighted average interest cost improved to 6.51% in the quarter, an improvement of approximately 60 bps if you were to compare with last year. Our revenue acceptances stood at $2.36 billion.

Our capex spend during the quarter was roughly about 3,500 crores, and total for nine months stood at 10,000 crores. For the FY '26, we expect the total capex to be in the range of 15 to 16,000 crores.

The JSW One platform has been doing well, has seen a significant uptick in volumes, especially in steel, which grew by 43% Y-o-Y. Quarter three was strong, with a GMV of 4,544 crores, representing a solid 36% jump Y-o-Y.

Over 1,300 crores of that GMV was driven by JSW One's credit offerings. With these results, we have achieved over 74% of our total consolidated volume guidance for both production and sales for the FY '26, and we expect to broadly achieve our full-year guidance of 34.5 million ton for production and 29.2 million ton for sales.

To conclude, we continue to monitor Chinese steel exports and are cautiously optimistic that measures such as export licensing and anti-involution policies should provide some support to the regional prices. India's growth prospects remain strong, with the government's recent reform measures providing further impetus to consumption and private capex on the back of rising capacity utilization of companies.

The upcoming Union Budget is expected to continue to see the government focus on reforms as well as public capex. All this bodes well for the steel demand growth, and the trade measures announced by the Government of India is most welcome and will help keep unfair imports in check.

Looking ahead, steel prices have begun to recover in end December and have continued an uptrend in January. Quarter four margins should be better on the back of higher steel prices, supported by seasonally strong demand, which is expected to offset the impact of higher raw material prices, specially coking coal.

We expect the coking coal cost to increase between $15 to $20, while iron ore prices are expected to be range-bound. We expect a strong quarter four volumes from JSW Steel due to a healthy demand in this quarter.

For the next year, we see a steel demand growth of 7% to 9% for the FY '27. We'll be happy to take questions which you may have.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press "*" and "1" on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press "*" and "2".

Participants are requested to please use handsets while asking a question and to limit your questions to two per participant. If you have any further questions, you may rejoin the queue.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Please go ahead. Sumangal Nevatia, your line has been unmuted.

You may proceed with your question.

Sumangal Nevatia

Thanks for the chance. Good evening, everyone, and congratulations on the new expansion announcement.

First question is the bookkeeping one. If you could just highlight what is the steel price increase we are seeing in the last three or four weeks?

As far as timeline is concerned, what is the update on the slurry pipeline and the JFE Bhushan deal closure timeline?

Jayant Acharya

The prices of steel have started recovering from the multiyear lows in the last quarter. In the end of December, we saw prices moving for flats steel by about roughly ₹1,500 per ton.

In the beginning of January, it has moved by about ₹2,000 per ton. We see some recovery possibility during this quarter as we move ahead.

The second question on the slurry pipeline which you have asked is expected to be somewhere in the quarter four of 2027, FY '27. On the BPSL, I'll request Swayam to give an update on the BPSL asset.

Swayam Saurabh

On the BPSL asset, we are pretty much on track versus the timeline we had indicated. Earlier this week, we received Competition Commission's approvals for the joint venture.

We are right now in the process of obtaining shareholders' approval, which we expect to get by first week of February. As indicated, we should see slump sale getting concluded before end of this year, which is before end of the March, and that should translate into about 24,400 crores of effective cash coming in JSW Steel, and a net leverage reduction of about 29,000 crores.

The second leg also remains on track, but that is expected end of quarter one of FY '27.

Jayant Acharya

Which will be an additional 7,000...

Swayam Saurabh

Additional 7,800, 875 crores.

Sumangal Nevatia

Yeah. Got it.

I have one more question, and that's slightly on a medium to long-term strategy. If you look at our expansion FY '30, we would reach somewhere around 47 million tons in India, and we'll be adding capacity only at the rate of around 7% to 8% CAGR.

Now given the Bhushan divestment, our balance sheet would be quite deleveraged, potentially around 1.5 times net debt to EBITDA. Does it make sense to evaluate the other brownfield expansion opportunities parallely, or should we now just expect this expansion till '30 and then maybe evaluate sometime closer to FY '28, '29 as the next expansion plan?

Jayant Acharya

If you see the presentation which we have given for this quarter, we have given you an indication of the expansions likely by FY '31, which takes it to about 56 million tons by FY '31, which includes 1.5 million tons of Ohio and 4.5 million ton of the BPSL asset. We have moved up with respect to our earlier goal of 50 million tons in India by the end of this decade.

I think that, I would say, the combination of the value unlock in BPSL certainly enables us, as you rightly said, to expand faster, which we are doing. We have taken the Odisha project, we are doing a project in North of India for tinplate and substrate for GI and GL, and we will be able to fast-track our other brownfield expansions as we go along into this decade.

We are on track. I think we would be adding capacities in line to meet the India demand.

Sumangal Nevatia

Sir, can I get your thoughts on...

Ashwin Bajaj

Sorry to interrupt, sir. We request you to please rejoin the queue if you have any further questions.

Sumangal Nevatia

Sure.

Ashwin Bajaj

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jashandeep Chadha from Nomura.

Please go ahead.

Jashandeep Chadha

Hello. Hi, thank you for the opportunity.

Am I audible?

Ashwin Bajaj

Yes, you're audible, sir.

Jashandeep Chadha

Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is on the lines of you are expecting 7% to 9% Y-o-Y volume growth or in apparent steel consumption growth.

Just wanted to understand if we go one step deeper, from which segments are you expecting majority or which segments will lead this demand? We understand that the GDP is growing and the overall steel consumption will go up.

Specific to JSW internally also, which segment do you believe will lead that growth? Will it be autos, industrials, retail, iron, or even any other segment that you see?

Just wanted to get your view on how the demand will be going ahead.

Jayant Acharya

We are seeing the growth across sectors, if you were to really look at the India story now. I think you'll see the growth across your construction and infrastructure.

You see good growth in the commercial real estate. We are seeing good growth in industrial.

Now, post the GST announcement, especially in the consumption side, automotive, appliances. The other area is the renewable energy, and by and large, I think we are seeing it across sectors.

Jashandeep Chadha

Understood, sir. My related question to this will be, have the intensity of flat product in construction, retail, and real estate sector, has it gone up in the last couple of years?

Along with that, I just wanted to understand also the new capacity that you have announced, what will be the capex intensity of that and the product mix, if you can?

Jayant Acharya

The new capacity which we have announced will be flat steel. It will be a 5 million ton facility with a hot strip mill and steelmaking capability and blast furnace.

The steelmaking capability will be for roughly about 6.5 to 7 million tons. It has potential to grow.

The hot strip mill can ultimately be expanded once the second blast furnace is taken up to 6 million tons itself. Your second question about the intensity of flat steel in construction.

The intensity of flat steel in construction has been increasing gradually. Globally, flat steel is used in construction through steel-based plated constructions, and we are seeing that slowly catch up in India.

Now steel buildings or steel and glass buildings are coming up in India. They are safer, they are faster to construct, and unlocks value in terms of time.

It is catching up, although at a slower pace than internationally, but we are looking at this space improving the flat steel consumption in the construction and the infrastructure. Infrastructure also, the bridges, which are coming up, are also adding to the flat steel consumption.

People are now looking at steel columns, steel supporting infrastructure for the bridges, because it is able to finish the bridge faster. Yes, it is going up in terms of intensity.

Jashandeep Chadha

Thank you for that, sir. Also if you can tell me the capex for the new capacity, sorry if I missed it.

Jayant Acharya

31,600 crores.

Jashandeep Chadha

Okay. Thank you so much, sir.

I'll join back the queue.

Jayant Acharya

This is also building in some of the infrastructure for the expansion of the second phase. Yeah.

Jashandeep Chadha

Understood, sir. The next phase of expansion will be at a lower intensity per ton.

Jayant Acharya

Correct.

Jashandeep Chadha

Understood, sir. I'll join back the queue and for further questions.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead.

Rahul Gupta

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions.

My first question is given strong volumes during the quarter as well, now your domestic volume guidance of 28.2 million ton would imply flat volumes on year-on-year basis for 4Q. How should we look at your 4Q volumes with respect to that?

Would you revise your sales guidance? That's my number one question.

Jayant Acharya

I think from a sales guidance point of view, we are maintaining our guidance of 29.2 million tons. Production guidance also at 34.5 million ton is more or less on track.

Going forward in the next year, as the BF-3 capacity unlock happens, we will be able to add to our available capacities, and that would further increase the sales from all our assets.

Rahul Gupta

Am I reading it right that your India volumes would be flat assuming you don't change your guidance?

Jayant Acharya

Why do you say flat?

Rahul Gupta

On year-on-year basis.

Jayant Acharya

No, the inventory liquidation probably you're not counting. We did an unlock of inventory of 300,000 tons in the last quarter.

In the current quarter also, we have

Rahul Gupta

No, I meant fourth quarter.

Jayant Acharya

If I look at the fourth quarter. I'm looking at the fourth quarter.

I'm saying we liquidated inventory in Q3. We are looking at some inventory liquidation in quarter four as well.

From a guidance perspective, we had a sales of 7.64 million ton last quarter. Our guidance is that we will be able to meet 29.2 million tons, maybe similar with respect to quarter three, quarter four, if that's what you're asking.

From an Indian operations point of view, we will be slightly higher, but on an overall basis, it will not be very different.

Rahul Gupta

Yeah. Got it.

Thank you. Now if I look at the detailed capex table that you have shared on slide 39, can you help us break down the mining capex and also value-added capex a bit further?

Thanks for highlighting Mozambique and the downstream capex separately, but can you help us with more details, what all come into this?

Jayant Acharya

I think the details the investor team can explain. You're talking about the consolidated capacity update, right?

That's what we have given you in that slide.

Rahul Gupta

It's the capex guidance for the next 5 years, the amount of capex. I'll take that offline.

Jayant Acharya

What we are trying to say is that we will be spending this 100,000 crores over the next four to five years. We will give a breakup year-wise in our annual board results in May, but roughly four to five years, you can spread it equally, it'll be a little higher in the next year, next two years, and then slowly go down.

Rahul Gupta

I was actually looking for break down of mining and value-added, but I can take that offline. One final question is You can take it offline.

If you look at realizations on a reported basis Q-on-Q, it has been much better. Now adjusted for JSW BPSL, did the share of value-added products improve quarter-on-quarter, or am I missing anything over here?

Jayant Acharya

We have been reporting in the last few quarters, we have been giving you the value-added numbers without the JSW BPSL. This time, including JSW BPSL, the value-added product mix is 61%.

Excluding JSW BPSL, it is 67%.

Rahul Gupta

Got it. That's helpful.

Thank you.

Jayant Acharya

Yeah. Right.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.

Please go ahead.

Amit Murarka

Hi. Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity.

First a bookkeeping question. In the quarter, what was the iron ore sales that you made?

Jayant Acharya

Just one second. What's your other question?

Maybe we answer that first. It is about 0.13 million tons.

Amit Murarka

What was it last quarter? Why I'm asking that is because the revenues doesn't seem to have gone down in terms of the realization decline that was expected.

Jayant Acharya

Indeed, you are seeing the stand-alone numbers, right?

Amit Murarka

I'm looking at the stand-alone numbers.

Jayant Acharya

We'll give you this input offline. It's primarily iron ore sales.

Amit Murarka

In Q3, you mean?

Jayant Acharya

Yes.

Amit Murarka

Sure. Also when I look at JSW BPSL numbers, again over there, the realization seems to have been down.

Is it some sale of some semis that has happened over there, what is really the reason?

Jayant Acharya

No, basically, see, we look at JSW BPSL and Vijayanagar from an operations point of view as a combined decision-making process. We have certain advantages in JSW BPSL on the cost side.

We have some advantages in JSW BPSL on the state tax side. We have a state tax advantage even if you sell outside the state.

Therefore, outside-state movement like to North, we prefer to do from there, which has a higher freight incidence, and therefore you see a lower realization. That enables us to overall optimize our total Vijayanagar blend, because the other unit is able to supply to Karnataka, which has got a tax advantage in Karnataka.

JSW BPSL is able to leverage the sales to other locations where they get the tax advantage.

Amit Murarka

Understood. Just also

Ashwin Bajaj

Amit, sorry to interrupt. May we request you to please rejoin the queue if you have further questions?

Thank you. Oh, sure.

Okay.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Vikas Singh from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Vikas Singh

Hi, sir. Good evening, and thank you for the opportunity.

Sir, just wanted to understand our stance on the CBAM. What is our exposure currently on the European side, and any strategy which we are going to tackle in terms of the whatever exports which we are doing to the Europe?

Arun Maheshwari

Hi, I am Arun Maheshwari. Per se, CBAM has impacted overall the entire exports happening to Europe.

It is not that it's impacting as JSW alone or India alone. However, the impact is not very

Jayant Acharya

Pardon me. Sorry to interrupt, sir.

May we request you to please come a little closer to the mic when you're speaking, sir?

Arun Maheshwari

Sorry. It's better now?

Jayant Acharya

Yes, this is better. Please go ahead.

Arun Maheshwari

Thank you. Okay.

I would say that the CBAM impact is not in particular for India or JSW. It has been impacting all the exporters who have been doing to Europe.

The overall real-time impact assessment is still yet to come out, because it's still very new. People are still understanding the impact.

However, I would say quite a sizeable component has been into Europe. Because if the impact is to overall European exporters, then it will find its own way how to export it out over there.

I don't think that it will be having a bigger impact on us as a company.

Vikas Singh

Any figures which you would like to put in terms of exposure in terms of tonnage, annual basis?

Arun Maheshwari

Not really, I see basically we have been doing somewhere around 1.2, 1.3 million ton kind of exports into Europe. The way the markets are shaping up in other geographies also, probably we can consume our tonnages over there.

At the same time, India market is also growing much faster. If you see year-on-year, our export component in the overall sales has been dropping.

I don't see that this will have a major impact on our sales volume into exports.

Jayant Acharya

From a percentage point of view, just to answer your questions, Europe as a percentage of our total exports is going down. Asia, Middle East, other countries are picking up.

Therefore, some part is already getting mitigated. We will understand the guidelines fully as and when they come, and we'll be able to give you maybe some more color as we go along.

Some readjustment in the prices in Europe also is something which will take place. Let us understand the market once the full guidelines play out.

Vikas Singh

Sir, my second question pertains to our capex plan in Odisha. The 6,300 crore per million ton for a greenfield plant seems to be pretty low.

Actually, this is as some of the brownfield plant probably is expanding more than that. What differential thing we are doing in this, or there is a scope or a risk of further enhancing this capex as we progress?

Jayant Acharya

No, first of all, I would just like to say that from a capex point of view, if you see our Dolvi plant expansion, which we have just undertaken, which is on, is actually specific investment is even lower than this. This is slightly higher because of being a green plant.

The other reason is that we are doing this plant in a modular fashion. We already had announced the pellet plant and some enabling infrastructure before that.

That is something which is happening parallely. Even then, if you look at the plant once this 31,600 crores also includes some enabling infrastructure for phase two expansion.

When you look at a 10 million ton expansion, including the next phase, I think our capex cost will be further competitive if you were to compare with others. How we're able to do it, I think over time, that's the project expertise which JSW has developed, and we are able to do specific investments costs lower over time.

Vikas Singh

There's no risk of overrunning in this capex as of now?

Jayant Acharya

We don't see so. Sir,

Vikas Singh

thank you, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi.

Please go ahead.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Hi, thank you for the opportunity. I hope I'm audible.

My first question is pertaining to the capex. You have earmarked almost ₹1 lakh crore in next four to five years, coupled with this 80,000 kind of a net debt.

As mentioned earlier on the call, you expect the capex to be high in the first couple of years. Do you think that this will bloat your balance sheet despite receiving the money from BPSL?

Jayant Acharya

No, we do not think it will load our balance sheet. I think from a ratio point of view, we will remain financially prudent while we invest.

From our perspective, I think we are quite well placed to be able to manage this expansions while we keep our ratios in control. You will see the additional volume from BF-3, the full ramp-up of JSW BPSL, the new capacities from Dolvi, which will come in in phase three.

All these will generate additional cash flows, which will contribute to the internal accruals, which we'll be able to spend for the capex. From that perspective, we are fine.

We don't see any challenge.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Okay. Just to add to this, BPSL transaction once it's concluded would also add significant new cash, which you have to take into account while plotting the numbers.

We do agree that receiving BPSL would definitely help in next couple of quarters. Then Dolvi is still down the line, and plus we have taken up additional 5 million ton capex.

Plus, you have just mentioned a couple of minutes back that in the first two years the capex would be much higher. Assuming it's about 25, 30,000 odd crores, which will basically net off against what you receive it from BPSL in the immediate term, do you think that this 80,000 crore of net debt can go to, say, ₹1 lakh or is there any threshold leverage what you expect?

Swayam Saurabh

No, we are right now below 3 net debt to EBITDA. We reported 2.91.

If you look at 100,000 crore on its totality over five years, four to five years, we are talking about 20, 25,000 crore. In certain year, it can go up, certain years it'll come down, which is not very different from the capex we have been historically doing.

You add BPSL cash in the mix, and you will realize that perhaps it's not as big a problem as it looks like.

Parthiv Jhonsa

All right. Thanks for the clarity, sir.

Just my next question is again on Europe front. Considering

Ashwin Bajaj

Parthiv, sorry. May we request you to please rejoin the queue if you have any further questions?

Parthiv Jhonsa

That was just the first question. I can ask the second.

Ashwin Bajaj

Oh, please go ahead,

Jayant Acharya

sir.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Considering you export 11% volumes, and like mentioned about 1.2, 1.3 million ton goes to Europe, considering CBAM, I know there are a lot of noise around CBAM, but have you given a thought by internal calculation based on your emission norms, what is the impact on a per-ton basis? Is there a number which you have finalized?

Jayant Acharya

No. Basically from a standpoint of exports, I would basically request you not to take right now any numbers because one is that the domestic demand is going up.

If I were to look at incrementally this year, we are expected to add about 11 million tons in India. Roughly, we'd close at about 163 million tons of demand.

Next year, even if you were to look at a growth at about roughly 8%, we'll be 176 million tons. This incremental demand which is being created in India, we feel that this will provide ample opportunity for us to be using our capacities within the country.

The need for exports will gradually also reduce. Therefore, the export moderation will happen in general, and that we will basically take a call which area to reduce.

With respect to your question on CBAM calculation, I think those are in process. I wouldn't like to give you any number right now because we haven't really finalized anything at this stage.

Parthiv Jhonsa

As for the latest circular, it is just purely based on Scope 1, right, if I'm not mistaken? Because they are based on direct emissions, if I'm not mistaken, right?

Is the understanding correct?

Jayant Acharya

Yes, but yeah, there are different technologies, different numbers, asset to asset, there is a difference. My emission level in Vijayanagar will be different from Dolvi level.

That's why I'm saying that there are different moving parts, let us wait for some more clarity once we do it. Yeah.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Sounds good. Thank you so much for the opportunity.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you and best of luck.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital.

Please go ahead.

Satyadeep Jain

Hi, thank you. I know too many questions on CBAM, just one more question on this.

There has been a two-year transition period. Just wanted to confirm because one other company mentioned this that none of the Indian companies have got their emissions verified as of now.

Just clarifying, there has been no verifier identified. Have you or have you not got emissions verified so far?

Is there still ambiguity whether the verified emissions will be for a company group level or will they allow plant-specific emissions, just a clarity on this? No,

Jayant Acharya

we are in the process of getting the verifications done. The CBAM will be asset-wise, basically it will be location plant-wise, not for the company as one.

Satyadeep Jain

When do you expect this to get done by?

Jayant Acharya

It'll be gradual. I think any exports which happen today in the year '26, you'll have to give them a certificate.

After the end of the year, the importer will have to look at it and take a certificate from a verified source, which we will be able to provide to them. Based on that, the importers on record will have to pay the CBAM differential whatever at that point of time.

That will happen sometime in the beginning of '27 for the year '26.

Satyadeep Jain

Fair enough. Secondly, on the capex, just on the Dolvi, first of all, can you remind us how much you've spent so far?

I think initial expectation for this was about 19, 20,000. Just wanted to see what have you spent so far, how much is left.

When you look at Odisha in the configuration, when you look at power sourcing, how much captive are you looking at, because you're also looking at increasing renewable penetration, WHRMS in captive configuration for the new 5 million ton?

Jayant Acharya

On Dolvi, we are on track. I would not be able to give you figures exactly how much we have spent right now, but we are on track for our expenditure.

The total cost of the project, including some additional capex which we had declared during the last board meetings, I think is close to 20,800, 20,900 crores. We are on track for that expansion.

Odisha, you are asking with respect to the power?

Satyadeep Jain

Correct.

Jayant Acharya

We would be putting up capacity for power which we would require. In addition to that, we would be buying something from the grid.

It's a combination which we would be doing, but let's say that a major part will be from our own captive and some will be drawn from the grid and other sources.

Satyadeep Jain

Have you identified how much megawatt of capacity will you be setting up for this 5 million ton on your own? The 31,600 includes how much captive power plant?

Jayant Acharya

We have that detail. We can give it to you offline.

Satyadeep Jain

Yeah. Thank you.

Jayant Acharya

It's about 300, 450 MW, but we'll give it to you offline.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.

Please go ahead.

Ritesh Shah

Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity.

Sir, three questions. First is, sir, overall on capital allocation, where does the 51% stake in JSW Realty and I think with respect to Saffron Resources, it does indicate there's a land bank.

Where do this variables fit in in the overall scheme of things? That's one.

Second question is on safeguards. How do you see the risk of circumventions and potentially higher volumes from Japan and Korea, limiting our ability to raise prices?

If you could highlight some numbers on parity math, that would be great. Third question is we have two blocks, correct me if I'm wrong over here, Agdaon and Surjagarh in Maharashtra.

What are our plans over here, and is there any probability of MSMC granting any leases to any company on linkage basis or something which can potentially reduce the cost curve for a certain company? Those are three questions, sir.

Thank you.

Swayam Saurabh

Ritesh, Swayam here. I'll take the first question, and thanks for asking.

Our capital allocation principles remain intact. Capital goes to what is core to us, which is steelmaking.

Saffron land acquisition is earmarked for a potential steel facility in future, and there will be no other use for that. On the JSW Realty deal, we have not spelled out the details, but what we require is essentially office space, as we are expanding as company.

What we will get out of this is a very lucrative return in terms of cost invested in an office space. This is our whole intention of being in that deal, and there is nothing more to that.

Jayant Acharya

Second question was on safeguard, Ritesh?

Ritesh Shah

Yes, sir. Effectiveness of safeguards, risk on circumvention, imports probably from Japan and Korea restricting our ability to increase prices.

Jayant Acharya

No, the safeguard is certainly, even if you look at Japan and Korea, 12% safeguard is certainly very helpful. We expect that to limit unfair trade to a large extent.

It still allows us scope to increase the price, and along with depreciation of the currency, I think it leaves room for some price improvement during February and March. That's something which we will see.

Also keep in mind that the prices in India fell actually more. It came to a discount versus imports.

That's something which anyway has to come back to a sensible level. From the iron ore point of view, I think I'll request Arun to respond on Maharashtra and Surjagarh.

Arun Maheshwari

We have concession available with us, which we are exploring all the ways to how do we make it operationalize in the coming years. The work is on for that mine.

Ritesh Shah

Sir, the last question, sir, any probability of state government granting out leases on linkage basis, anything of that sort?

Jayant Acharya

Where?

Ritesh Shah

In Maharashtra.

Arun Maheshwari

No, nothing to our knowledge as of now,

Jayant Acharya

Jayant Acharya (Joint MD & CEO): Nothing so far.

Ritesh Shah

Sure. This is helpful.

Thank you so much.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup.

Please go ahead.

Raashi Chopra

Thank you. You already addressed some of the pricing question, but effectively in this quarter, what was the realization change that you witnessed without the mix impact?

Jayant Acharya

There was a drop in realization in this quarter. I think the market, if you were to look at the market price for, for example, if I were to take an example of a hot-rolled coil, the market dropped quarter-on-quarter by about ₹2,200 per ton.

We as a blend were able to reduce the impact of this through value-added mix, which we have in our Our value-added mix was the ever-highest, as I mentioned. Our drop was close to 1,400 odd rupees per ton on the overall mix of JSW Steel.

Drop.

Raashi Chopra

Understood. As of now, the increase that you mentioned in December and January is about 3,500 with further scope for upside.

Jayant Acharya

Yeah, 1,500 odd, I think, in December, and about 2,000 odd in January.

Raashi Chopra

Got it. On the cost side, like you already gave the iron ore as well as the coking coal cost, but on a blended basis, how did the costs move sequentially?

Jayant Acharya

Sequentially from quarter two to quarter three?

Raashi Chopra

Yes.

Jayant Acharya

Quarter two to quarter three, as we said, $5 on account of the price, there was an impact of coking coal. There was some cost related to the shutdown of BF-3, which came in, and there were some shutdowns in Salem, which came in.

From a cost perspective, we had an impact of close to ₹500 to ₹600 per ton.

Raashi Chopra

What was your captive iron ore proportion?

Jayant Acharya

Last quarter, I think 33%.

Raashi Chopra

Right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie India.

Please go ahead.

Ashish Jain

Hi, sir. Good evening.

Sir, my first question is on the Odisha expansion. Given the location, are we planning to do from a technology-wise or otherwise to be export-compliant and low-carbon, or is it like does it the standard mill we set up with a focus on India market?

Jayant Acharya

The location is very conducive for exports, primarily because we are on the port. We would be looking at the product mix would be tailored to look at some of the export requirements as well.

From a renewable energy or from gas utilization point of view to reduce the carbon emissions, I think those discussions are ongoing. We're trying to see if we're able to get in some gas and reduce the fuel.

Best available technologies. Whatever the best available technologies which are available will be used, including the blast furnace.

Today the technologies in blast furnaces have also got very advanced in terms of oxygen injection or other coke oven gas usage, or the other one which we have used just now in Dolvi.

Ashish Jain

What was that? Dehumidification.

Jayant Acharya

Dehumidification. These are essentially reducing your carbon footprint.

We are going to be using all available technologies even in the blast furnace to reduce the normal level which a blast furnace has.

Ashish Jain

Right, right. Sir, also, given Dolvi location-wise is much Hello?

Jayant Acharya

Yes.

Ashish Jain

Sir, given Dolvi location-wise is more conducive to export to the West, the latest line we're setting up, will it have materially lower carbon emission, again, from a technology point of view? Does it make it easier for us in the once Dolvi ramps up to access some of these Europe some of the export markets?

Arun Maheshwari

Technology. Talking about Dolvi, you see any new addition is coming up with the latest of the technologies in those blast furnaces, definitely the carbon emission in the new production line will be slightly better than the existing ones.

There's absolutely no doubt. Our

Jayant Acharya

Blast furnace also same. The best See, the phase three which is being there at Dolvi will also have a blast furnace with all the best available technology, what was being explained for Paradip.

Overall blast furnace will have a less emission in terms of gases, and then this is CSP. Overall energy spent for steel production will be quite low.

Our asset at Dolvi, emissions are lower than normally other locations, that is one. Second thing, I think when you're looking at supplies to Europe or you're looking at low-emission supplies, we have already communicated to you that we are looking at an asset for green steel or low-emission steel through the electric arc furnace, natural gas, renewable energy route at Salav, which will take care of the requirement for anybody who has low-emission carbon requirement.

Ashish Jain

Okay. Got it, sir.

Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.

Please go ahead.

Kirtan Mehta

Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. One more follow-up on the CBAM.

Basically, the way you said is our emission will get certified till end of FY '27 or so. In the meanwhile, would we be willing to sort of do the exports, assuming the emissions at our end, or sort of give a guarantee to buyer to compensate for the impact?

How would it transpire during the period when the emissions are not certified, basically?

Arun Maheshwari

No, one thing we all must know about it that CBAM impact is overall for everyone, similar impact. Europe will prices in Europe will go up to that extent of the CBAM impact anyway.

While we are still assessing what would be the real impact of the CBAM while the policies are still being understood by everyone, by the importers as well as exporters, eventually Europe will remain a market for the people despite having CBAM, because overall cost in Europe will go up. This is where we will look at it.

We are waiting for this entire policy coming out in understanding, and thereafter we will take a call on that.

Kirtan Mehta

Okay. Second question was regarding the Odisha plant.

Have we also finalized the downstream plant for the product, or would we be announcing that separately beyond this capex of 31,600 crore?

Jayant Acharya

As of now, this is up to the hot strip mill. We are not yet announced any downstream plant at Odisha.

Currently, what we have announced is the downstream plant in the North of India, which I mentioned about tinplate and galvanized and Galvalume capabilities for our color-coated plants. We will look at the Odisha downstream at a later stage.

Kirtan Mehta

Sure, sir. Just one last question if I can include.

We also had a plan for couple of EAFs, is that getting shifted with the announcement of this plant?

Jayant Acharya

The Kadapa project, which basically is an electric arc furnace project, is we just announced last quarter. That has capacity to expand as well if we require.

Keep in mind that electric arc furnaces in India doesn't have really scrap. Electric arc furnaces depends on scrap or on high-grade DRI, which basically relies on imported iron ore.

You effectively have to do some mix which is viable from an India standpoint. What we are doing at Salav is again going to be electric arc furnace-based, DRI-based production.

Kadapa also, it's electric arc furnace-based, 1 million. We already have electric arc furnaces currently operating at various locations.

Kirtan Mehta

Right, sir. Understood.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Please go ahead.

Sumangal Nevatia

Thanks for the follow-up. I wanted your outlook on iron ore.

This year, if you see, imports have increased and we've also imported. Wanted to know, is it strategic or is it some quality issue?

Also when we look at 50% being met through captive, for the remaining 50% over the next five, six years, are we seeing domestic availability, or there should there might be some shortages which will have to be met then imported?

Swayam Saurabh

Iron ore import is largely because of grade availability in India is very poor. It's going down every year.

That's why we have gone for the higher grade of imports of iron ore. It is a more of a combination requirement in the production usage.

At the same time, availability of iron ore in different geographies are different. We have to consider that while we take our buying decisions.

It may not remain uniform every year, but whenever we see this opportunity coming up, we would like to shift our security base accordingly.

Sumangal Nevatia

It's basically for blending for especially larger blast furnaces, which require some improved grades. We'll continue to look at it and take the call.

Kirtan Mehta

Mr. Acharya, what is our medium-term view?

Is there For the remaining 50%, which is market for us over the next five years, will we have enough domestic iron ore, or you see a domestic shortage increasing over years?

Jayant Acharya

No, I don't think so.

Swayam Saurabh

I think the government is also having a lot of policy intervention coming in, and they are ensuring that the iron ore availability is not compromised in line with the National Steel Policy what they are targeting. Iron ore availability will be maintained with all the initiatives what the government is taking and the way the private miners are also trying to increase their capacity or production.

Jayant Acharya

New mines will also come up for auction, apart from unlocking mines which have been held up due to various reasons. We do not envisage shortage in India as we go along.

We may have to put facilities for beneficiation or value addition into pellets as the case may be. Yes, we have ample resources in India, from a availability point of view, we don't see a concern.

Sumangal Nevatia

Got it. Thank you, and all the best.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions, ladies and gentlemen.

I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sirs.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you very much for the time. Just to reiterate that we look forward to a good quarter four, stronger volumes based on a seasonally strong demand in quarter four.

Margins are likely to be better with prices recovering and offsetting some of the raw material price. I think from the next year's perspective, the BF-3 will be up and running from April onwards, and we'll be well positioned to meet the requirements in India from next year onwards.

Our capacity in India will be close to 36 million ton after the BF-3 expansion is finished. Thank you and all the best.

Ashwin Bajaj

Thank you, everyone. Please reach out to us if you have any further questions.

Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of JSW Steel Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.