JSW Steel Limited

JSW Steel Limited

1,185.50
INR
-34.50
(-2.83%)
116.79EPS
11.81P/E
2.99TMarket Cap

Q4 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptMay 14, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected. The conference call will begin in next few minutes.

Participants, you are connected for the JSW Steel Limited conference call. Please stay connected.

The call will begin in next few minutes. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening, and welcome to JSW Steel Limited Q4 FY26 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will remain in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

With this, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwin Bajaj, Group Head of Investor Relations.

Thank you, and over to you.

Ashwin Bajaj

Thank you, operator. A very good evening, ladies and gentlemen.

Welcome to JSW Steel's earnings call for Q4 and financial year 2026. We have with us today the management team represented by Mr.

Jayant Acharya, Joint MD and CEO, Mr. GS Rathore, Chief Operating Officer, Mr.

Arun Maheshwari, Director of Commercial and Marketing, and Mr. Swayam Saurabh, the CFO.

We'll start with opening remarks by Mr. Acharya and then open the floor to Q&A.

With that, over to you, Mr. Acharya.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you, Ashwin. Good evening, everyone.

FY26 was a transformational year for JSW Steel marked by strategic joint ventures with global steel majors, progress on steel-making and downstream capacity expansions, enhanced raw material security, and significant balance sheet deleveraging. In December 2025, we took a very important strategic step of advancing our long-standing partnership with JFE Steel of Japan.

We announced a 50-50 joint venture with them for our BPSL steel business. The transaction has progressed as scheduled with the JV entity being formed by end of March, and JFE has brought in the first tranche of their equity investment into the joint venture.

This transaction entails a deleveraging of approximately ₹37,000 crores for JSW Steel, out of which about ₹30,000 crores has been completed at March end. JSW Steel's balance sheet has transformed with operational improvements.

Our leverage has fallen to 1.81 as on 31st March, and net debt stands at ₹54,000 crores. Our credit rating outlook has seen an uplift, and we expect to see continued progress on this front.

As you are aware, we had also been working on a joint venture with POSCO, South Korea. Last month, we have signed a joint venture agreement with POSCO at this India-South Korea summit in New Delhi to set up a greenfield integrated steel plant of 6 million tons in Odisha.

This transformation has set the foundation for our next phase of growth. India's continued strong growth in steel demand and our strong balance sheet has enabled us to accelerate the growth plans.

We have been targeting a capacity of 50 million tons as we have been communicating in India by FY31. We are now announcing a target of 62 million tons by FY32, which can be achieved through our existing sites.

In addition to this, the joint ventures of JFE and POSCO will have a cumulative capacity of 16 million tons by FY32, taking the total capacity in India along with joint ventures to 78 million tons. Including our Ohio capacity of 1.5 million, the capacity would be close to 80 million tons for JSW Steel and the joint venture entities put together.

Interestingly, if we just look at the ranking of steel productions, US at number three and Japan at number four, as a country, produce about 80 million tons. This capacity would bring us to be one of the largest steel-producing companies worldwide.

During the year, we have announced an acquisition of BMM Ispat in Karnataka, a 0.9-million-ton producer of long products, which should complement our product basket of long products. BMM is located at close proximity of about 50 km from our Vijayanagar steel plant.

It has land available with expansion potential of 0.9 million ton to be expanded to 1.8 million ton at low specific investment cost. The expansions would focus on engineering, specialized steel, and this acquisition is expected to be completed by end of this financial year.

Our expansions in 1 million ton in Kadapa and the first phase of 5 million ton at JSW Utkal, which we announced last year, are progressing on track. We are announcing a further 5-million-ton expansion at Vijayanagar, which will take the Vijayanagar steel plant capacity to 25 million tons, making it the world's largest single-location steel plant.

Our growth strategy also focuses on value-added products, and during the year, we have announced several downstream projects across our various sites in order to maintain our share of VASP over 50%. We have also taken big strides to enhance our raw material security.

We have completed the acquisition of MDR high-grade coking coal mines in Mozambique. We have increased our effective interest in Illawarra coking coal mine from 20% to 30%.

On the iron ore side, we have operationalized one new mine in Goa, and we have won one additional mine in Goa in the last few days. We had previously stated our target of achieving a 50% captive iron ore integration and 25% captive coking coal by FY31 at a 50 million steel capacity.

With the MDR acquisition, we now expect to be 50% captive for both coking coal and iron ore by FY31. We would also target going forward to enhance our captive to meet the 50% share at 60 million 62-million-ton capacity as well.

Thus, the last year has truly been transformational. In our slide eight of our presentation, you will see that over the next decade, India will be the key steel market globally.

China's steel production and consumption as a share of global demand peaked out around 2020 and is expected to see a gradual decline. Other markets will witness muted growth.

India is going through a nation-building phase with steel being a key building block for growth. This creates a long runway for steel demand to outpace the real GDP growth in the country.

India, as the second steel producer and consumer, will continue to increase its share of global steel consumption from about 9% currently to 16% in a decade. We believe production growth is likely to lag consumption growth.

JSW's strengths and capabilities, including human capital, digitalization, and AI, gives us the confidence to grow steadily to meet this Indian opportunity. At the same time, we will stay prudent and focused on creating shareholder value, as we have done historically in the past.

On the macroeconomic front, the global economic growth outlook remains resilient with IMF forecasting global growth in 2026 at 3.1% and the outlook for 2027 at 3.2%. This is despite the world economy facing elevated uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, which is causing supply disruptions, inflationary risks, increasing the pressure on interest rates.

IMF, however, has flagged that prolonged continuation of this conflict could result in an impact on the GDP. Even as global uncertainties persist, India continues to show strong growth momentum.

The forecast by RBI for FY27 is 6.9% reflects the strength of domestic fundamentals with Indian growth demand remaining robust. India has shown resilience in sustaining growth and geopolitical shocks.

Such shocks are increasingly becoming the new normal. Economic activity in India has picked up in the second half of the year, supported by GST-led reforms.

Healthy rural indicators, strong credit growth, improving capacity utilization, and traction across key sectors continue to support the outlook. At the same time, risks such as energy price volatility and monsoon-related uncertainties needs to be monitored.

India's steel consumption also grew at a healthy rate of 7.9% in FY26. Due to a large flow of imports in the past two years, we have been a net importer.

With the imposition of safeguard duty last year, steel imports have declined, and exports have risen, making India net exporter after two years. Looking ahead, domestic steel demand is expected to grow at a healthy rate of 7% to 9% in FY27, incrementally adding 12 to 14 million tons of demand.

In China, steel production was down 4.6% in quarter one, outpacing the 4.2% decline in consumption. With production easing and export licensing norms coming into play from January beginning, steel exports, including semis, fell by 8.1% YoY.

Looking ahead, a better demand-supply balance is expected as China steel demand is projected to contract at a slower pace than what we have seen in the previous year. JSW Steel's growth continues to be firmly India-centric, reflecting our long-term conviction in India's growth trajectory.

Steel is the building block for growth across manufacturing, infrastructure, engineering, energy, and mobility. A strong domestic ecosystem directly contributes to self-reliance while also creating an opportunity to build further resilience and self-reliance in the country.

Our growth strategy continues to focus on disciplined capital allocation, efficient execution, technology, and digitalization to create sustainable value for all stakeholders. On sustainability, we were included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook on the top 1% emblem globally across industries and were ranked number one in the global steel sector.

We have commissioned 1 GW of renewable capacity with a total 2.5 GW approved by our board, along with 320 MW of battery storage. We also deployed India's first electric locomotive for captive logistics at Vijayanagar.

On the update of our projects, just to give you a brief overview, at Vijayanagar, the BF3 expansion from 3 to 4.5 million is currently under testing and commissioning. The ramp-up is expected to add incremental volumes from Q2 onwards.

At Dolvi, the phase three expansion from 10 to 15 million ton is moving ahead as planned with civil work, equipment erection underway and targeted for completion by September '27. At JSW Utkal in Odisha, the two pellet plants will be commissioned by FY28.

The first phase of 5 million steel capacity will be commissioned by FY30. The 30-million-ton slurry pipeline in Odisha is progressing well and is expected to be commissioned by FY27.

The 1-million-ton structural mill at Kadapa is progressing with equipment ordering underway and commission targeting by FY29. We're adding about 3 million tons of value-added capacities while we grow our steel capacities across galvanized, electrical steel, tinplate, cold rolling, structural products, etc.

These projects are progressing well and will be commissioned between FY28 and '29. In addition, let me give you a little bit of an update on the raw material side.

On iron ore, we have 25 iron ore mines, out of which 13 are currently operational. We are working on operationalizing the remaining mines, as well as increasing the EC capacity at some of the operating ones.

In Goa, we expect to operationalize two more mines in quarter one of FY28 by quarter one of FY28. As we increase our captive iron ore production, we are geographically optimizing our sourcing, thus reducing our logistics cost and lead times.

The 2-million-ton iron ore mine at Netrabandha, which is now with a joint venture is being commissioned in the quarter four, increasing the iron ore availability for the joint venture. On the coking coal front, as we mentioned earlier, Mozambique has the potential to yield 250 million tons of usable high-quality coking coal.

The mine will be developed in phases, and the first phase is targeted to be completed by mid calendar year 2028, producing around 5 million ton of usable coking coal. In addition to the 30% stake in Illawarra, we have three mines and coal linkages in India, which together will provide around 5.5 million tons of coking coal.

Along with MDR, we will have approximately 10 million tons of captive coking coal, meeting around 50% of our total coking coal requirement by FY31. Coming to our operating performance, quarter four was characterized by strong volume growth and operational performance supported by efficient asset utilization and increased plant reliability due to digitalization efforts across our sites.

This was reflected in the higher capacity utilization for the Indian operations, which stood at 96%, excluding the BF3 shutdown. The downstream capacity utilization also increased in quarter four to 95% that provided us higher VASP volumes.

Steel sales stood at around 8 million tons for quarter four and around 30 million tons for FY26 driven by improved domestic sales supported by growing steel demand in India. Our geographic and sectoral mix has improved.

Automotive packaging, alloy engineering sectors have increased. Also, branded sales constituted about 50% of our total retail sales, enhancing the overall value of the volumes.

During the quarter, we reduced inventory by 700,000 tons and approximately 100,000 tons over the full year. We achieved 99% of our production guidance and 102% of our sales volume guidance for the year.

Coming to the financial results, our consolidated revenues in quarter four crossed ₹51,100 crores, crossing ₹50,000 crores for the first time. Adjusted EBITDA stood at ₹9,713 crores with an EBITDA margin of 19%, while PAT stood at ₹19,243 crores.

It is important to note that there was an exceptional gain of ₹17,888 crores in quarter four. This includes a gain of ₹18,051 crores on slump sale of BPSL steel undertaking and ₹163 crores exceptional charge on implementation of new labor code.

The normalized PAT, excluding exceptionals, for the quarter was ₹3,475 crores. In FY26, the adjusted EBITDA stood at ₹32,048 crores, and the normalized PAT, excluding exceptionals, was ₹8,700 crores.

We transited from quarter three with one of the low steel prices, which has improved gradually post the imposition of safeguard duty and strengthened through March. Some part of this price recovery will be realized in quarter one FY27.

On the cost side, we were impacted by higher coking coal prices, which increased by about $16 per ton. Iron ore costs were flattish during the quarter with 1/3 of captive iron ore usage in the quarter FY26.

At our overseas operation, Q4 performance was better at the plate and pipe mill in Texas. However, the Ohio operations production was impacted as activities ramped up in January '26 following the caster upgrades and extreme cold weather.

Overall for FY26, the performance of US operations improved significantly, reporting a EBITDA positive of $36 million compared to an EBITDA loss of $35 million in the previous year. The Italian operations also performed well in FY26, reporting an EBITDA of €16.4 million versus close to €15 million in the previous year.

The BPSL transaction has driven a structural deleveraging and transformed our balance sheet. Our net debt has declined and stood at ₹54,000 crores by the year end.

Our revenue acceptances stood at $2.1 billion. Leverage and gearing have dropped substantially to 1.81 and 0.51, respectively.

The second tranche of equity investment in JFE is expected by end June, which will drive further deleveraging of ₹7,900 crores approximately. We have also revised our stated maximum cap for gearing from 1.75 to 1.25 and leverage from 3.75 to 3.

However, our comfort level will be to keep the leverage below 2.5. During the quarter, we incurred CapEx of ₹4,612 crores and ₹15,600 crores for FY26.

The CapEx for our approved growth plan is ₹126,000 crores, which will be spent over the next 4 to 5 years. We expect to spend about ₹22 to ₹24,000 crores in FY27.

The JSW One online platform in which we have about 61% equity stake on a fully diluted basis continued to see strong momentum during the year. In quarter four, it turned profitable for the first time.

The steel volumes grew by 50% YoY, and the GMV reached ₹6,200 crores, a 57% YoY increase. Over ₹2,000 crores of this GMV was driven by JSW One's credit offerings.

Looking ahead, we expect our coking coal cost to be higher by $12 to $15 in quarter one. For FY27, we expect consolidated steel production at 29.75 million tons and a sale of 28.6 million tons.

This includes volumes from BMM Ispat, which is being acquired by us, but excludes volume from our JFE joint venture. We expect the domestic steel demand to grow in the range of 7% to 9% in FY27, and JSW Steel is well-positioned to support this growth.

We'll be happy to take questions. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question and to restrict to two questions at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

We'll take our first question from the line of Bhaval Zutshi from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Vibhav Zutshi

Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on the strong results.

The first question is basically on the raw material security given the target of 78 million tons. Starting with iron ore, maybe while you said the captive mix would be 50%, we have seen some of the global iron ore majors ramping up iron ore exports to JSW Steel.

How confident are we in ramping up captive mix from 1/3 currently to 50%, and how could be the mix for imports versus domestic sourcing? Just could provide some guidance on that, please.

Arun Maheshwari

Right. I'll answer that.

I'm Arun Maheshwari. Regarding this security of iron ore up to 50% from the captive sources, today also we have a 50% EC capacity available for the iron ore within India for our own consumption.

Depending upon the logistics ratios, depending upon their proximity, depending upon the other sources available at that particular point of time, we define to use how much we should be taking out from the captive. That's how we decided to take only up to 1/3 of our consumption last year from our captive sources, even though the ECs were available up to 50% of our own consumption.

This is how we try to maximize our logistical

Jayant Acharya

advantages

Arun Maheshwari

at different geographies because we are located in almost all the geography of India. Going forward also, we are continued to participate in the assets of iron ore within India.

Recently we have acquired some more in Goa. We continue to look for something more in south.

We are participating in Andhra Pradesh wherein we are secured some concessions. Those are exploration licenses wherein we are doing more exploration.

Today we have 13 operational mines and about 12 is under exploration. We will continue to keep on upgrading our captive sources available.

We are confident that at 62 million ton of JSW's volume, we will have our targeted volumes of captive sourcing.

Jayant Acharya

Total number of mines, as we mentioned, was 25 with total combined resources of about 1.7 billion tons without the mines which are under exploration right now. Those will add to the resources.

Vibhav Zutshi

Got it. That's helpful.

Just second question is on the Middle East conflict. We have been seeing that there's a reduction in commercial LPG supplies and some shortages in natural gas as well.

Do you see any risk to the volume guidance if the conflict continues, or those issues are largely resolved in the guidance that you've provided?

Arun Maheshwari

Yes, LPG and the gas supplies, LNG, has been a recently cause of concern because of the Middle East disruption. Our exposure to the gas-linked production is very limited in the overall production.

However, it does have an impact on the cost of production. However, we have ensured, and we continue to ensure that there won't be any production disruption by virtue of non-availability of gas unless it becomes too severe in coming months.

Otherwise, our portion to the gas-linked steel production is very, very less.

Vibhav Zutshi

Thanks a lot. Very helpful.

I'll come back in the queue.

Jayant Acharya

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Amit Dixit from Goldman Sachs.

Please go ahead.

Amit Dixit

Hi. Good evening, sir, and congratulations for a good performance.

A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on realization.

Now given that realizations have gone up and spot realizations have gone up much higher in last quarter, what kind of realization increase do we expect in Q1 if you consider that the prices are remain at the current level? Considering the contracts that you might have and other things.

Jayant Acharya

Amit, you're right. Since the increases have happened between January to March gradually, part of the increases is reflected in our quarter four numbers, and the balance increase will be reflected in quarter one.

In the quarter four, our NSR has moved up by about ₹3,800 per ton, and we would see the balance of the price increase play out in quarter one.

Amit Dixit

Sir, possible to quantify the balance?

Jayant Acharya

Difficult to give a number because it will depend on again the product mix, and it will also take into account seasonal number. I think we expect that after covering the cost, because the cost also will go up.

Our sense is that the cost will go up in the range of ₹3,000 or so per ton. The margins will still be positive after covering the cost.

The price will cover the cost and add to the margin.

Amit Dixit

Great, sir. Understood.

The second one is essentially on the expansions that we have announced. Now most of our expansions are flat-focused, and the country traditionally we have seen longs demand outpacing flats.

Any thoughts around longs expansion as Well, I know you mentioned one of the acquisitions that you have done. Apart from that, are we planning to get active in longs as far as downstream expansion is concerned?

Jayant Acharya

In the last announcements, if you recall, we have announced that the Kadapa section mill, which is a structural mill which would go for beams, and the expansion at our Raigarh facility, which would have beam and rails. Those will be in long products.

In the BMM facility, which we have just approved at the board for acquisition, which is a 1-million-ton long facility, would be expanded to about 1.8 million ton, and that would also be in special engineering steel products. These would add to the long product capacities which we currently have.

We believe that India with the infrastructure growth would require long products, and these would help in meeting those demands.

Amit Dixit

Fair enough. All right.

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.

Please go ahead.

Amit Murarka

Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to understand the thought on growth going ahead, earlier in the past, we've seen that usually you have taken one project at a time.

Given that now you are indicating taking a multiple projects, is it now the new normal, or should we look at the business now as three balance sheet, one stand-alone, one JFE JV, and one POSCO JV for all your growth programs going ahead?

Jayant Acharya

From JSW Steel's perspective, if you see the slide which we have already given to you that by FY30, JSW Steel alone will be at 49 million tons approximately. Can I see that slide, please?

49 million ton, and on top of that, we would have the joint venture of JSW JFE, and including Ohio, will be close to 55 million tons by FY30. The expansion of JSW Steel alone up to FY32 would be to 62 million.

What you would track for JSW Steel will be this 62 million tons. On top of this, we have 10 million tons, as we expect, from the joint venture with JFE in the existing site and a 6-million-ton new facility at POSCO.

Those would be tracked again separately.

Gajraj Singh Rathore

Once Dolvi gets completed, we will have two sites, Paradip and Vijayanagar, instead of one site normally.

Jayant Acharya

Yeah. Mr.

Rathore is just adding that...

Gajraj Singh Rathore

The Dolvi will get over in another one year or so, then this year we'll start Paradip and Vijayanagar, we'll have two sites instead of one site, each 5 million. That's the target we have taken.

Amit Murarka

My question was more longer term, what I was trying to understand is, usually in the past you have taken one project at a time and then moved ahead. Is this now a new normal that you will be taking a multiple projects through the JV structure that is in place now?

Yeah.

Jayant Acharya

As we had given you an indication earlier that the idea of the JV was to strategically grow faster in the country while it helped us to deleverage as well. We'll have a double engine of growth, one which JSW Steel will grow on and the other which the joint venture will grow on.

We've given you an indication that India is the fastest growing market, and this is the right time to be able to take this opportunity and grow faster. That's the idea, and to your answer is yes.

We would be expanding faster along with the joint ventures.

Amit Murarka

Right. Given that the pace of growth is going to be so high, is there a plan to also kind of export larger part of this volumes than what we are doing currently then?

Jayant Acharya

Can you just repeat that once, sorry? I missed that.

Amit Murarka

Given that the pace of growth at a JSW including JV level is going to be quite accelerated with multiple capacities being done, is there also a plan to essentially raise exports to a much higher percentage than what it is today in the current portfolio?

Jayant Acharya

We don't see the need as of now the way it is structured. I think you will see probably more of domestic alignment.

It's possible that when the capacities incrementally maybe come up in the first one year or two years, you have a slightly higher export, but then come down. Having said that, but I would like to say that our Paradip facility, which is on the port, would be the natural place to export from.

The exports from Paradip will naturally be higher than other sites. Given the domestic growth, as we have reiterated earlier, our feeling is that this capacity will be required to meet the domestic growth which we are seeing today.

If you're looking at a number of 230 million tons by the end of this decade and going beyond thereafter, unless capacities are put in place, I think India will not be able to meet this demand. I also mentioned a line, I think we believe that capacities are going to follow demand, and there will be a lag in the medium term up to 2030.

Any capacity which you set up today takes 4 to 5 years minimum. When you start a project, keep that in mind.

We are quite confident that with our faster pace of execution and low specific investment cost, we are well-placed to grow in India. We're quite optimistic that this is in line with the growth and not in excess of the growth.

Amit Murarka

Got it. Last data question, could you...

Operator

Amit, I request you to join back the queue, please, as we have participants waiting for their turn. Thank you.

Next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Sumangal Nevatia

Good evening, and thanks for the opportunity. My first question is with respect to our JV with POSCO.

Just want to understand better what is the rationale and what value does the new JV partner brings given that we already have a very strong balance sheet after the JFE deal, and we also have a lot of access to expertise in value-added products, etc. given association with JFE?

Just some color on this, thanks.

Jayant Acharya

There are two reasons. One is that both JFE and POSCO are leading global steel companies, and both have their strengths on technology.

There are certain strengths for which we have been able to get along with JFE into India, CRGO being one of them. We have collaborated with them on many areas of improvements and will continue to do so.

POSCO also has their own areas of technology, and especially in the high-strength steels, Giga steels, which would go for lightweighting, replacement of aluminum, hydrogen technology to reduce emissions, digitalization, and AI. I think those are areas of cooperation between POSCO and us.

In addition to that, POSCO has a 2-million-ton cold rolling facility in Maharashtra, and they would like to integrate backwards with a steel plant. One of their criterias for looking for a steel plant in India has been to have a backward integration of the steel from their own facility.

These are the two reasons.

Arun Maheshwari

That is largely because POSCO Maharashtra, they wanted to have localization of sourcing, and that is one of the primary reasons why POSCO wanted to come to India.

Jayant Acharya

Yeah. Going forward, they want to buy rather than sending it from Korea, they want to buy more steel from the local facility in India.

Sumangal Nevatia

Understood. Just to harp on this topic a bit more, one is, how does our existing JV partners view association with new global players?

Is there a potential conflict in future? Few years down the line, we'll have three large plants supplying flat steel from Odisha.

Will we have a different sales strategy, different targeted downstream products across the plants, or they will just compete like independent plants?

Jayant Acharya

We do not foresee any conflict between the JV partners per se. They will have their own strategies for sure because they'll be different legal entities.

We see, as we mentioned, the growth of India is strong and therefore will enable all the entities to grow. POSCO Maharashtra, as I mentioned, is a 2-million-ton basically a captive demand for the POSCO facility which will come up.

Keep that in mind as well. That will be supplying basically 1/3 of their total new capacity to the downstream facility.

Sumangal Nevatia

Got it. My second question is...

Okay. Can I go for a second question?

Operator

Please go ahead.

Sumangal Nevatia

Yeah. Just on a broader level, just want to understand given the overall macro issues in the country and the pressure on inflation, do we see any risk of some withdrawal of protection given our domestic prices are enjoying 20% kind of higher prices due to the protection?

Just some thoughts here, sir.

Jayant Acharya

I think if you really look at protection, I would say India is probably one of the more balanced countries with respect to protection as you see it worldwide today. We are seeing protections between 25% to 50% in various parts of the world.

Every country is trying to safeguard their shores from any kind of trade flows which can be adverse for that country, and that is becoming very critical to the supply chain resilience of that country. In India, with a 11.5% safeguard duty, I think we are far lower than what the rest of the world is.

That's number one. Number two, your comparison is with the lows of December.

I would not do that. 3 years back in April '23, we had the same price as we had in April '26.

The cost environment was similar if you were to look at coal and iron ore. On top of that, the depreciation of the rupee has been severe.

Please look at the fact that your cost on account of the overall ecosystem has gone up. You have just come back to where you were 3 years back.

I would say this more of a price correction and to make it a viable price system today. From international price perspective also, I think we are now well-balanced.

We do not think that we are very much off the international prices as we see today. If you were to look at Europe and US, Europe is already in the range of $830-odd of hot rolled coil, and I think US is close to $1,100 per metric ton of hot rolled coils.

Japan also and Korea also, export prices are higher. We are price point of view also more balanced in India.

Sumangal Nevatia

Got it. That's very useful.

Thanks, and all the best, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Pinakin from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Pinakin Parekh

Thank you very much, sir. My first question is if you look at the CapEx guidance of ₹126,000 crores over the next 4 to 5 years, that clearly does not capture the entire 30-million-ton JSW Steel expansion and the 10.5 million ton at the JVs.

If you take a step back, can you give us a broad range of the CapEx over the next 5, 6 years to go from the current capacity base to 78.5-million-ton capacity base and includes downstream, mining, everything?

Jayant Acharya

Currently, as we have given you the capacity expansion plans, our CapEx plans are at ₹126,000 crores as of now. Incrementally to be at 62 million plus invest for equity for the joint venture and our mining, other investments, downstream facilities, our sense is that we would require another ₹100,000 crores between now to FY33 because FY32, if we try to plan a capacity, the payment would spill over at least to the next year.

You have about 6 to 7 years, 7 years in which you would spread this CapEx.

Pinakin Parekh

Sir, just to understand clearly, this 126 plus another ₹1 lakh crore, ₹226,000 crores over the next let's assume 6 to 7 years, right? FY27 is at ₹22,000 crores.

The way we should look at it that in the coming years, the annual run rate of the CapEx will go from the 20s to the 30s ₹35,000 crore a year in the next couple of years as the multiple projects pick up pace?

Jayant Acharya

Yeah. Yes.

As if this is including the joint venture projects, including the mining which we would additions which we would do in Mozambique, including our own 62 million tons. It's a combination of all of them, yes.

Pinakin Parekh

Got it. Sir, my second question is if I look at the guidance, right, if I strip away BPSL from this year's base, it implies roughly 9 9.5% of production growth in FY27.

Given the timelines of the project commissionings that we have in terms of Dolvi, Vijayanagar, is it fair to say that this is the broad 8% to 10% CAGR that we can look at for the next 3 to 4 years?

Jayant Acharya

If you see the guidance which we have given, if I recall, we have given a guidance of 29.75 million tons, which on a like-to-like basis is a 13% growth in production and a guidance of sales at 28.6 million tons is a 10% growth. Now going forward, the capacities, we are getting in capacities of Vijayanagar and Dolvi put together, which would add about 7 million tons of capacity between now to September '27.

The Utkal facilities, which have been taken up, and the Vijayanagar facilities for expansion of another 10 million tons, etc., which has been taken up, would be there by FY30. Each of them will provide incremental EBITDAs for the next phase of growth.

Got it.

Pinakin Parekh

Got it. This is very helpful.

Thank you very much, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking.

Please go ahead. Pallav, your line is unmuted.

Please go ahead with your question.

Pallav Agarwal

Good evening, sir. Am I audible now?

Jayant Acharya

Yes.

Pallav Agarwal

Yeah. First question was on BMM Ispat.

I think could you share what was the actual production and EBITDA number in FY25 for this company?

Jayant Acharya

I think we'll request our investor team, you can reach out to them and take the details. I don't have it off the cuff right now.

Pallav Agarwal

Sure, sir. Because I think the...

Jayant Acharya

It's a facility of 0.9 million ton just to give you an overview. So 0.9 million ton, I would say they would produce in the range of 0.8 million ton in this financial year.

Pallav Agarwal

Sure, sir. Also, if I look at the net worth, I think probably was about ₹2,700 crores as per the press release on the stock exchange.

We've acquired it for about ₹6,500 crores. That's close to almost three times on a price-to-book basis.

Is this factoring the future expansion that can happen with it?

Swayam Saurabh

The current price at which this is acquired represents multiple approaches, discounted cash flow as well as replacement cost. It's roughly a million ton plant.

Also the fact that it has a blast furnace, which is very new, which was commissioned only last year. If you take a normative EBITDA per ton of plant of this size, you will realize that the effective EV/EBITDA is significantly attractive, plus the fact that this has potential to expand capacity almost double from here in fairly short period of time.

All of these factors, but the valuation we believe is fairly attractive, plus the synergy with our Vijayanagar location, which is very close to it.

Jayant Acharya

On an expanded basis, you are right that this gives us the additional headroom because we feel the next 1 million or 0.9 million ton can be expanded between ₹1,600 to ₹1,800 crores, making the overall investment very attractive.

Pallav Agarwal

Sure, sir.

Operator

Just secondly... Pallav, I request you to join back the queue, please.

Pallav Agarwal

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi.

Please go ahead.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Thank you for the opportunity, and congratulations on completing the JV and further strengthening the relationship with the partner. I have two questions.

The first question is pertaining to the steel prices considering just couple of days back or very recently, a couple of companies from Vietnam, China have taken substantial price hike, and also your prices in Europe and USA are at reasonably high level. Just wanted to check if you can just give a number of what can we expect as far as your price increase in quarter one and say H1 going forward?

Jayant Acharya

In the month of April, we have increased prices, and we have increased some price for flat products in the month of May as well. I think we increased 2,000 in April and 1,000 in May for flat.

Our belief is that for now, the price will be range-bound. We will watch the geopolitical situation in the country and then take a view.

As of now, we believe this would be range-bound going into this quarter. Sir,

Parthiv Jhonsa

just continuing to that question, any contracts from auto which would be done at a much higher prices because I believe it's at a rolling basis, right?

Jayant Acharya

It would. Auto gets recalibrated quarterly.

The price increase for automotive will come in this quarter. The quarterly prices will get recalibrated.

Those will be also in this quarter. You're right.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Any idea on the hike which we can expect from the price from the auto sector?

Jayant Acharya

I will not be able to give you numbers here, but as we close the things, it will come out in terms of...

Parthiv Jhonsa

My second question is pertaining to your annualized CapEx run rate of somewhere ₹30,000, ₹35,000-odd crores going forward, right? I believe though you're very comfortable for say '27 considering your production and sales are at about 10%, 13% higher on a like-to-like basis, and also the prices are good.

However, going forward at a ₹35,000 crores of CapEx on annualized basis, would you start opting for more debt because in the near term, I think your cash flows might not match, if I'm not mistaken?

Swayam Saurabh

This is Swayam here. If you factor in incremental capacity which are going to be available fully from now till next 1 and 1/2 years, and that includes JVML, which is not at full capacity yet in FY26, can do 1 million more, BF3, which is going to start production once capacity upgradation is completed, that will give 2 million more, and Dolvi phase three, which we expect to come in FY27 FY CY27.

Now these three put together creates almost 8 million ton of extra production, which will create anywhere between ₹9,000 to ₹12,000 crore of EBITDA, which is not in my base today. If you take that out, you'll realize that even if as a company we stretch to 35, ₹30,000 to ₹35,000 crore of CapEx spend, a part of it is going to get funded with the new cash I will generate.

If you exclude that, you'll realize that it's from the base, the kind of cash we are creating, we are not going to create very large stress to increase debt. Of course, temporarily debt could still go up, but given where we stand right now, which is at 1.8 net debt to EBITDA, and our expectation is this leverage in FY27 perhaps will go slightly better, especially after second tranche of JFE, we think we'll be very comfortable.

Parthiv Jhonsa

My understanding was

Swayam Saurabh

for...

Operator

Yeah. Go ahead, please.

Parthiv Jhonsa

Just my quick understanding was that Dolvi is expected in CY27. The incremental benefit would be only from '29 onwards, right?

I think for '28 and '29, that is what I wanted to understand. These two years, there would be some increase in debt, right, if I'm not mistaken?

Swayam Saurabh

No, not really because you will have JVML, which will actually produce entire 5 million in FY27. Then you will have BF3, which will have some positive uptick in FY27, not fully.

That would come in FY28. In FY28, you will also see Dolvi's part volume, could be small.

This combined will create incremental cash which you are not seeing in our base yet.

Jayant Acharya

Without Dolvi, just to sum up, is 4 million tons at least you will see between now to FY27, including the BMM volume. That will give you additional cash flow till Dolvi comes in.

Dolvi will start kicking in, let's say, after let's say October '27 to December '27 quarter, they will start, let's say, operations and then ramp up capacity.

Operator

Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Shubham Jain from Nippon India Mutual Fund.

Please go ahead.

Shubham Jain

Hi, sir. Good evening.

Congratulations for the good performance. My first question is, can you help us understand the current raw material consumption norms from the Indian operations specifically for iron ore and coking coal per ton of steel?

Also within your cost of goods sold, roughly what percentage is attributable to iron ore, coking coal?

Arun Maheshwari

Percentage utilization or a ratio of utilization of iron ore and coking coal is purely depending upon what grade of iron ore we are using and which location and which technology we are using into. Typically if I have to say that, it is about 1.8 to 1.9 per ton of steel is what the iron ore consumption would be.

Coking coal, if I have to consider purely coking coal, which is about 0.7 700 kg per ton of steel. That is a typical ratio what we have, only coking coal.

If I have to add all other coals, it becomes about 900, 950 kg depending upon the process what we are getting into.

Shubham Jain

Roughly what percentage is attributable to iron ore and coking coal in COGS?

Arun Maheshwari

It keeps changing because both are cyclical in nature. Then I would say normally about 60% or 60% put together is the cost share of iron ore and coking coal.

Shubham Jain

Sir. I have one follow-up...

Operator

Shubham, I request you to join back the queue, please, as we have participants waiting for their turn. Thank you.

Next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.

Indrajit Agarwal

Hi, thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the export.

As you said, that more and more global economies are getting closed. If at a point in the next couple of years, we have a temporary overcapacity in flat steel in India, which geographies do you think we can still have a market?

Jayant Acharya

No, actually, we have modeled the overall flat demand in India. By and large, if you see, flat has been growing at a slightly faster pace in general over the past few years.

We see that flat demand will increase. The entry barriers for flat capacity setting up is more.

Therefore, in the medium term, maybe between the years of '28 to '30, I see that supply will lag demand. Going forward, if you really look at the overall thumb rule number, if we are incrementally generating about 12 to 14 million tons of incremental demand, roughly about 6 to 7 million tons of flat steel would be the incremental demand.

That means you will require to set up at least two hot strip mills because each hot strip mill takes almost two years to fully play out. At least two hot strip mills should come in every year for you to be able to meet that demand.

I do not foresee too much of a problem in the planning which we see. There could be some year, as you mentioned, where if there is any clubbing of capacities which come, then certain amount would be exported, which is fine.

As I mentioned, our Odisha facility is on the port, and that can leverage exports into the world. We also have opportunities of supplying some green steel to the world.

As we have said that Salav would produce low-grade emission steel from natural gas and DRI and renewable energy. That is a natural export model.

The third one is that we see that there is a gap in slabs also, which is required internationally. The traded slab internationally has come down post the Russia, Ukraine, and Iran conflicts.

There is a space which has been created in that. That's the third opportunity for exports, which is there.

Indrajit Agarwal

Sure. My second question is actually a bookkeeping question.

If you can highlight how much is the iron ore cost increase for 1Q, and what is the tax incidence of the BPSL deal?

Jayant Acharya

The iron ore costs have gone up in the last few weeks. We are trying to reduce and we are trying to do the blending in a manner so that the specific consumption is better, and with that, we will try to moderate the impact of the price increase.

It will be slightly higher, but not much from quarter four to quarter one. As far as the bookkeeping question is concerned on the BPSL tax something which you asked, Swayam, can you repeat that part?

Indrajit Agarwal

Tax incidence on the BPSL deal. Is there any tax implication?

Yeah. No.

Swayam Saurabh

BPSL has had carry forward losses, unabsorbed depreciation. The effective tax on this transaction is significantly lower.

Those losses were fully utilized.

Indrajit Agarwal

Even on JSW books?

Swayam Saurabh

Correct, on JSW books.

Indrajit Agarwal

All right. Thank you.

That's all from my side.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to our next question from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie India.

Please go ahead.

Ashish Jain

Hi, sir. Good evening.

Sir, my first question is on pricing. You made a point earlier that current prices are still where we were in 2023.

Then if I see that in context of China exports, assuming that China exports drive prices globally, they were much lower in 2023. How should we think about pricing going ahead?

Have we come to a point where pricing is more local, irrespective of the safeguard duty? Have we come to that point yet, you think?

Jayant Acharya

No. I don't think price will always be what is internationally available, and that has to be taken into account.

I don't think you can ignore that. Just to give you a number because we were just going into this as an analysis from our side, China prices in the international market in let's say April, May was in the range of $550, $560 FOB.

It was actually slightly higher than what it is today. Today it's let's say in the range of $510 FOB.

On the cost side also, you will see similar structures. India at that point of time, hot rolled coil prices were in the range of ₹60,000.

You can do your math. I think we are not very far from this basket.

That's why I compared April '23 to April '26. International prices will always be a guiding factor for the domestic steel prices.

Ashish Jain

Right. Okay.

Sir, secondly, in terms of the demand, clearly are very positive on demand. Is it possible to give some color in terms of which are the key sectors, segments where we are most optimistic on demand, if you can give some granular color on that?

Jayant Acharya

The way infrastructure and construction actually contributes to a very large part of the overall steel consumption, and that's growing at a very healthy rate. Automotive, if you see from what was expected when we began this year to what we ended this year, automotive growth has been very good.

Automotive capacity announcements by major auto producers in the country is also a very healthy number. We are seeing similar kind of traction in the renewable energy sector and similarly in appliances and others.

If you were to sum up, infrastructure, manufacturing including automotive, renewable energy, these are moving at a fast pace. Sir,

Ashish Jain

anything on railways and all?

Operator

Ashish, I request you to join back the queue, please, as we have participants waiting for their turn. Thank you.

Next question is from the line of Raashi from Citi. Please go ahead.

Raashi Chopra

You had mentioned that the cost increase sequentially is expected to be about ₹3,000. Apart from coking coal, where all are you expecting the increase?

Jayant Acharya

The coking coal, our expectation is between $12

Arun Maheshwari

to $15. The exchange rate is for sure one of the cost element, and the sea freight has gone because there's a large part is seaborne trade also for us, whether it's import of coking coal or other coal or coastal movement.

That impacts. The fluxes because the Middle East is one region where all the fluxes are coming.

That gets impacted, and the demurrage incidences are increasing there. Our exposure to gas is just about 5% to 6% of the total production volume.

It won't impact much to us, but still in the civil engineering generally get impacted because of the gas prices.

Jayant Acharya

On account of iron ore, maybe you factor 5% quarter four to quarter one on cost.

Raashi Chopra

When you say the exposure to gas is 5% to 6%, because my understanding was that the gas impacted mostly your downstream production. Is there any upstream exposure as well?

Jayant Acharya

You're talking about natural gas exposure, right?

Raashi Chopra

Yes.

Jayant Acharya

Natural gas exposure to downstream is not there. Natural gas is basically used in Dolvi in our operations to some extent.

As Arun explained, it's a very small percentage of our overall requirements. Downstream uses a little bit of LPG, but we have been converting to different fuels,

Arun Maheshwari

and

Jayant Acharya

therefore, we are able to mitigate some part of the impact of the LPG pricing.

Arun Maheshwari

We're

Jayant Acharya

using liquefied natural gas.

Raashi Chopra

Understood.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ritwik Sheth from One Up Financial.

Please go ahead.

Ritwik Sheth

Hi, good evening, sir. Sir, a couple of questions.

Sir, what will be the share of our JV investments in this 2.25 lakh crore?

Jayant Acharya

As I said, ₹126,000 crores plus at the most another ₹100,000 crores. It could be a little lower, but at the most another ₹100,000 crores.

The JV investment will only be in form of equity. If you typically take a project which we are doing, let's say, we are doing BF6, for example, right now in Vijayanagar, for which the expansion which we have just announced ₹26,000 crores.

If you were to take that as a benchmark between ₹25,000 to ₹30,000 crores, equity for any project of this would be about ₹8,000 to ₹10,000 crores. In a project like this, our share of the equity would be close to ₹4,000 to ₹5,000 crores in each of these projects.

That means two projects multiply by two.

Ritwik Sheth

Sure, got it. Sir, what is the outlook for the overseas subsidiaries for FY27?

FY27,

Jayant Acharya

US operations have the vacuum degassing modification and our caster modification for dynamic soft reduction as taking place. They are in the process of stabilizing.

That will enable them to produce higher grades. One that is value accretive.

The volume also, which we lost on account of the shutdown at Ohio upgradation, that will come back. Baytown upgradation is getting completed, and that should start operations in quarter two of this financial year by the end of quarter two of this financial year and gradually ramp up.

That these two combined will give you a better profitability going forward in the US operation. Italy also, the sales volumes are likely to be better.

Arun Maheshwari

Sales volume would be better, and the product mix and the market mix looks to be much better this year. We would get a better overall EBITDA financial performance over there.

Jayant Acharya

Overall, both assets will show better performance vis-a-vis FY26.

Ritwik Sheth

Got it, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jashandeep Singh Chadha from Nomura.

Please go ahead.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

Hi, thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations for a good set of numbers. Sir, my first question is in line with one of participant have earlier asked.

Just wanted to put the net debt again into context. Asking in another way, sir, in the near term and in the sustainable, how do JSW Steel look at its leverage?

How much is management targeting the net debt to EBITDA in the near term and also sustainably? Just wanted to understand the peak debt and sustainable debt, what will be it?

Swayam Saurabh

I think when Jayant in his opening speech did mention it, we have revised our upper limit headroom from 3.75 down to 3 net debt to EBITDA. That basically means we are much more comfortable even while we are in this CapEx journey.

Instead of giving an absolute net debt number, our preference will be to track the leverage ratios.

Jayant Acharya

We are, as we said, we are hopeful of a lower net debt to EBITDA numbers, therefore, we have revised our cap, and we are comfortable below 2.5,

Swayam Saurabh

yes.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

Understood, sir. Sir, my next question is a little structural in nature.

Just wanted to understand when we look at your JSW expansion plans, for the next decade also, we see that largely blast furnace will govern the expansion phase, right? Although scrap-based EAF on a smaller term you are putting in.

How far is India actually investing in scrap-based EAF or EEF assets? How will blast furnace keep on dictating the expansion in the near decade as well?

Jayant Acharya

Even in our today's mix, if I were to see, I think about more than maybe close to 1/3 or 30% plus is electric arc furnace-based. Going forward, we've mentioned that we would be putting up a facility in Salav of 4 million tons for green steel, which will be again DRI and scrap-based.

We are also now adding scrap processing facilities and in the country, we are beginning with west, then we will add one more in south, which we have already started creating a supply chain for scrap buying, and that's improving every year. We are increasing scrap collection and putting it back into our furnaces, so that will further even in the converters if you do that, it will further bring down your overall emissions.

Having said that, we must be conscious of the fact that India doesn't have too much of scrap generation as we speak. It will take time for India to generate scrap on its own.

Scrap availability from Europe or from US may go down with their own focus on scrap-based production. The cost of steel or the cost of the technologies are also higher.

For now, the best technology for India is blast furnace-based and using various technologies to reduce the emissions from the blast furnace-based steel-making. Fuel consumption.

Fuel consumption, circulating gases back, using recovery gases and putting it back into the blast furnaces to reduce your met coal, all those...

Arun Maheshwari

Dehumidifier.

Jayant Acharya

Dehumidifier, various technologies are being used to reduce the emissions from the blast furnaces. That combination with the grade of iron ore we have makes better sense.

Operator

Thank you.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Rahul Gupta

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Industry demand grew by 8% in fiscal '26 while you grew by 12%.

If I adjust numbers for BPSL and BMM, you are guiding for again 12% growth for fiscal '27. Does that mean that you remain confident that the industry would grow at around 8%?

That is number one. One related question I have is your capacity expansion guidance is at around 12% CAGR through the years.

Does that mean that you would continue to grow at around 1.5 times of the industry continuously for the next few years? Thank you so much.

Arun Maheshwari

I think all of us agree that India would be growing close to about 7% of GDP, and the elasticity for steel growth is close to 1.2, 1.3 times to the GDP. We have seen this in the past several years.

Our guidance is about 8% to 9% or 7% to 9% would be the growth in the steel market in the coming year. The way India is growing, the way India is likely to be, we have no doubt that it would be growing close to about 8% to 9% in the steel side.

Now this is the overall steel out of which flat steel is part of it, and we are largely getting into the flat steel. We have no doubts that about 10% to 12% of market sales growth for JSW would be a challenge on those lines.

We are quite confident on that.

Jayant Acharya

Our growth for sales for this year is about 10%.

Rahul Gupta

Jayant, sir, if I adjust BPSL from the base and BMM from fiscal '27, that implies around 12% growth, right?

Jayant Acharya

No, the way we have given our guidance, it's excluding BPSL and including BMM volume.

Rahul Gupta

Right, exactly.

Jayant Acharya

If

Rahul Gupta

I adjust BPSL from fiscal '26 base as well, your growth would be more like 12%, right?

Arun Maheshwari

That's right.

Jayant Acharya

The adjusted growth from BPSL, if you net off, according to me, it's about 10%, but our investor team can... Sales is 10%, and production is 13%.

Sales is 10%, and production is 13%, yeah.

Arun Maheshwari

Yeah.

Jayant Acharya

They can clarify that to you if there is any doubt.

Ashwin Bajaj

We can reconcile that offline, Rahul.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take that as the last question for today.

I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments. Over to you.

Ashwin Bajaj

Thank you, operator. Just one clarification I would like to make, this is Ashwin Bajaj.

We've got some queries. Regarding the accounting impact of BPSL, we have a slide, page number five in the presentation.

Kindly refer to that. BPSL has been deconsolidated at March end, and the numbers for BPSL will not be part of financials or EBITDA.

It would be equity accounting, and there is a line in the P&L which says income from associates and joint ventures. That's where BPSL financials would sit.

Over to Mr. Acharya for any closing comments.

Jayant Acharya

I think, as we highlighted, we had a transformational year. Our operational performance has been strong.

Our balance sheet is much stronger, and we have deleveraged, making the foundation for the next phase of growth. We have targeted 62 million tons in India by FY32 in addition to the joint ventures, which would cumulatively add 16 million tons.

We believe that India is in a very long-time growth story for a decade or two, and we would be able to support that growth and the industrial ecosystem in India. Thank you very much.

If you have any other questions, please reach back to the investor cell. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, members of the management team. On behalf of JSW Steel Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.