Shriram Finance Limited

Shriram Finance Limited

865.00
INR
-35.90
(-3.98%)
56.01EPS
18.59P/E
2.45TMarket Cap

Q2 FY2027 · Earnings Call TranscriptOctober 23, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Shriram Finance Limited Q2 FY27 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.

Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh Revankar, Executive Vice Chairman, Shriram Finance Limited.

Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Umesh Revankar

Thank you. Good evening, friends from India and Asia, and a warm welcome to all of you.

Greetings also to those who have joined the call from the western part of the world. To present our Q2 FY27 call today, I have with me Managing Director and CEO Mr.

Parag Sharma, Joint Managing Director and CFO S. Sunder, and Sanjay Kumar Mundra, Executive Director Investor Relations.

It has been a good second quarter of the year for Shriram Finance under current circumstances. Let us first look at the broad economic indicators that has a direct impact or indirect impact on our business.

First on the GDP growth, India's Q1 GDP growth of 7.8 in FY26-27 has highlighted the resilience of country's economy, with the data pointing towards strong consumption, rising investment, and sustained government capital expenditure as the key drivers of the expansion. The stronger than expected performance has reinforced expectation of broad-based economic momentum across multiple sectors.

The IMF has raised India's GDP growth forecast to 7% for 26-27, up from 6.4 in July. The revision in the estimate comes on the back of stronger than expected momentum, supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity.

India's headline retail inflation rose to 5.4 5.54% in September from 4.82 in August, adding pressure on the country's central bank to further tighten monetary policy. Inflation has been on the rise for 11 straight months in the world's fastest growing economy and has touched 22-month high in September.

This increase is mainly due to higher fuel and food prices, which rose amid West Asia war-driven supply disruption and delay in seasonal rains. India's food inflation climbed to 7.74% in September from 5.97% month prior, with prices rising faster in rural areas than cities.

India's wholesale price based inflation climbed to 11.39% in September from 9.92 in August. Among key drivers of wholesale inflation were mineral oils, food articles, crude petroleum, and natural gas, coal and lignite, basic metal, chemicals, textile, rubber, plastic product, and electric equipments.

Now, coming to the key takeaway of RBI policy, repo rate increased by 25 basis point to 5.5. Policy stance shifted from neutral to calibrated tightening.

GDP forecast revised upward to 7.1 for FY26-27. CPI inflation forecast 26-27 raised marginally to 5.2.

Coming to the rural economy, which has major impact on our business, the 2026 southwest monsoon concluded at 87% of long period average, with sharper shortfalls hitting regions like south peninsula, northeast Asia. India received its lowest rainfall in the more than decade owing to El Niño effect.

The below normal and erratic rainfall has triggered moisture stress hurting major kharif crop like rice, soybean, corn, cotton, and pulses, coupled with fertilizer shortage due to war. That will lead to some food issues in coming months.

India's Drought Monitor said in September 23 that 51.2% of India's geographical area was abnormally dry or worse. The India's weak monsoon is beginning to weigh on rural consumption ahead of crucial festive season, with companies seeing pressure on demand for entry-level two-wheeler and cars, discretionary FMCG products, and also consumer appliances.

However, India's rural economy is becoming more resilient to weak monsoon as growing share of non-crop activities, diversification into allied sectors, rising irrigation coverage, and reduced dependence on the rains. The RBI report said empirical findings suggest that while rainfall shortfall remains important for agriculture output, their association with allied activities and other rural activity has moderated over time.

Other significant indicator is the GST collection. India's gross GST collection rose by 14.7 year-on-year to 2.04 lakh in September compared to 1.77 lakh crore.

On cumulative basis, gross GST revenue for April to September reached 12.46 lakh crore, compared with 11.17 lakh crore during corresponding period of 25-26, increase of 11.6%. Increased government spend on infrastructure is one positive indication, and GST collection has really helped the infra spend.

OEM sales side, there has been positive impact throughout the last 1 year post the GST rate cut. The commercial vehicle sales has increased by 28.7% in Q2 FY27 and stands at 3.09 lakh unit against 2.4 lakh unit sold in the Q2 FY26.

Within commercial vehicle, medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales recorded growth of 37% in Q2 FY27 and stands at 1,21,171 units against 88,431 units sold in Q2 FY26. LCVs sales recorded a growth of 23.8% in Q2 and stands at 1.88 lakh unit versus 1.52 lakh unit sold in the Q2 previous year.

Passenger vehicle has recorded highest growth of 30.7% and stands at 13.61 lakh unit against 40 10.41 lakh unit in Q2 26. Two-wheeler again seen a record growth of 15.2% with sales of 40 64.33 lakh unit in Q2 against 55.86 lakh unit.

Three-wheelers also have recorded a very good healthy growth of 23.6% in Q2 with sales of 2.85 lakh units sold versus 2.31 lakh units sold in Q2 26. Tractor again has recorded a good growth of 18.26% with 2.91 lakh unit sold as against 2.4 lakh 46 lakh unit sold in Q2 26.

Construction equipment has started the growth after decline in growth in the previous year, with 23% growth with 29,289 units sold against the 23. 23,758 units sold in Q2 26.

Coming to the EV, we are seeing a robust growth in EV throughout all the segments. In the passenger vehicle, it grew by 106% to 99,732 units against 48,250 units.

In three-wheeler, it recorded 30.61% to 2.53 lakh unit against 1.94 lakh unit. Two-wheeler, it increased by 90.93% to 5.95 lakh unit against 3.11 lakh units in the previous year.

Now, I shall ask my colleague Parag to take us through the operational performance for the quarter.

Parag Sharma

Thank you. Good evening to everyone and welcome to our Q2 FY27 earnings call.

I trust you had the opportunity to peruse our results and the related investor presentation which has been posted on the website of the stock exchanges. We registered disbursement growth of 25.71% year-on-year.

Our disbursement in Q2 FY27 this year aggregated to ₹54,079.02 crores versus ₹43,019.17 crores in Q2 FY26. Our AUM as on 30th September 2026 registered a growth of 16.96% over Q2 FY26 and a 4.85% sequentially.

Our AUM stood at ₹3,29,021.72 crores as against ₹2,81,309.46 crores a year ago and ₹313 798, that is 3,13,798.39 crores in Q1 FY27. Our net interest margin in Q2 FY27 registered a growth of 38.2% year-on-year.

We earned a net interest income of ₹8,661.04 crores in Q2 FY27 this year as compared to ₹6,266.84 crore in Q2 FY26. Our profit after tax grew at 59.37% and stands at ₹3,677.03 crore in Q2 FY27 as against ₹2,307.18 crore in Q2 FY26.

The profit after tax was 3,444.56 crore in Q1 FY27. Our net interest margin in Q2 FY27 was 9.52% as against 8.19% in Q2 FY26 and 9.04% in Q1 FY27.

Our earning per share for the quarter stood at ₹15.63 as against ₹12.27 in Q2 FY26 and ₹14.83 in Q1 FY27. On our asset quality, gross stage 3 in Q2 FY27 stood at 4.65% and net stage 3 at 2.31% as against 4.57% gross and 2.49% net in Q2 FY26 and was 4.64% gross and 2.33% net in Q1 FY27.

Our credit cost on total asset for Q2 FY27 stood at 2.03% as against 1.68% in Q2 FY26 and 1.66% for Q1 FY27. Our cost to income ratio was 22.52% in Q2 FY27 as against 27.76% recorded in Q2 FY26.

Our cost to income ratio in Q1 FY27 was 25.48%. The board also declared an interim dividend of ₹6.5 per share, that is 325%.

The record date for the entitlement thereof has been fixed as October 29, 2026. On the liability side, the total liability stands at 2,36,271 broken up into public deposits which is 31%, non-convertible debenture that is capital market borrowing at 15.71%, ECB loan and bond at 16.5%, the domestic bank borrowing and institutional borrowing is at 21%, and securitization at 14%.

The cost of liabilities on balance sheet is 8.41% versus 8.56% in the previous quarter, a reduction of 15 basis point. From March, it is down by 18 basis point.

The incremental cost of fund for the quarter was 7.3 versus 7.7 in the previous quarter. The liquidity coverage ratio was 303 versus 262 in the previous quarter.

The liquidity buffers continues to be strong to repay our next quarter's liability. Leverage ratio was 2.16 times versus 2.14 times in the previous quarter, and March was 3.82.

The capital adequacy ratio is at 33.24% versus 34 in the previous quarter. I think with this, we'll open the forum for question and answer.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin with a question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and then one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.

Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.

Your first question comes from the line of Chintan with Autonomous. Please go ahead.

Chintan Joshi

Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking my question.

Could we start with asset quality? There is a step up in stage 2, stage 3 loans [clears throat] across construction equipment, gold, MSME.

Could you help us understand what is kind of creating this increase in stage 2, stage 3 loans, and how do you see provisioning costs play out for the full year? Your guidance from the previous quarter was around 200 basis points.

What is your expectation given that we've seen some deterioration this quarter? That's my first question.

Umesh Revankar

See, basically, the seasonal and also from certain geography where there are less rainfalls. We don't expect this to be a widespread thing.

It should contain itself in the festive period if the overall demand remains good. We do not really see any kind of an alarming situation in increase in the stage 2 or stage 1.

We have sufficient provisioning to manage this. Our guidance will remain at 2% credit cost.

In the beginning itself we said that in case of deficient rainfall, it can go up by around 30 basis point 30 basis point for a short period of time. It will be temporary.

I don't really think it is across. It is mostly in the area where it has seasonal impact.

Chintan Joshi

Okay. Just to be clear, on the credit cost, is the guidance still 2% for the full year?

Because you're already 2.5 this quarter, then must be higher than 2% for the current year, correct?

Umesh Revankar

It is 2.03.

Chintan Joshi

Yeah.

Umesh Revankar

On loan book it's 2.3. It's not 2.5.

I think it will remain at this level for next one or two quarters. Our overall guidance, we said that it's 2%, but in select areas and select products it can go up to 30 basis point more.

Chintan Joshi

Fine. Then, in the big scheme of things, where your margins are, these are not the biggest moves, but still thank you for the color.

On the NIM and NII, there's been good development there. How should we think about kind of NIMs going forward?

What is your take on evolution of cost of funds over the next year? How should we think about your loan yields?

If you could give some color there as well.

Umesh Revankar

Because of the capital infusion, there is a temporary increase in the NIM. It is likely to remain at this level maybe for another one quarter or two, then slowly coming down.

In the medium term, it should come to around 9, then maybe in the long term, it will come to around 8.5.

Chintan Joshi

Could you explain the drivers of that as well? What drives that movement?

No,

Umesh Revankar

see, basically what happens is as fresh capital is there, the capital cost being less or no cost, the NIM expansion happens. As the interest rate environment also will play some role here as the cost of borrowing, fresh borrowing goes up, then NIM can come down to some extent.

We will be able to increase the lending rate from the fresh loans, not on the existing loan.

Chintan Joshi

Okay. It's the typical ALM that is causing moderation.

Could you give some color on where your incremental cost of borrowing is likely to be over the coming quarters? We've already had one rate hike.

I'm sure that's been passed on to you with perhaps more rate hikes on the way. What is the starting point of cost of funds and then we can adjust it for incremental rate hikes?

Parag Sharma

Cost of liabilities on book is 8.4 and I don't expect the incremental cost to be more than 8 as of now. That is, be it our bank borrowing or the retail borrowing and other instruments, like securitization and all.

If the rate hike happens and capital market rates move up, I think that can slightly go up, which is as of now close to around 15% of our liabilities. Incremental costs can slightly go up from 8% to around 8.30 35% level.

Still that overall liability being at 8.4, I don't expect the overall liability cost to go up for us for the entire liability book.

Chintan Joshi

Thank you. One final question.

On MSME, if you can give some more color on what is causing the increase in stage 2, stage 3 loans, what is happening in that product area? I know that you're trying to get into mid-ticket items, product, could you give some color in that MSME area?

Umesh Revankar

See, MSME is a huge opportunity, and we are getting into more geography. Initially, our MSME was mostly focused in the southern market, and post the merger, because MSME lending was done through earlier Shriram City Union book, then we are now expanding it to all India.

We expect MSME to grow much faster than other segment because of the bigger geographical reach. It is only bigger geography will give us higher growth, and that's how MSME book will be growing faster.

Chintan Joshi

Okay. It's more geographical or you are also increasing your ticket sizes?

Umesh Revankar

Ticket sizes No, the combination of both. Wherever we have a comfort, then ticket size will go up.

Chintan Joshi

Got it. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Shishuan Gao with Thornburg.

Please go ahead.

Shishuan Gao

Am I now audible?

Umesh Revankar

Yeah.

Shishuan Gao

Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, on growth strategy in the current situation, especially given the uncertainty on rural income in the second half, are we going aggressive to push growth, or are we thinking about maybe tightening some filters?

How should we think about growth for this year?

Umesh Revankar

Growth, we have been cautious, even though our initial guidance was 18% growth. Looking at the impact of the war situation in West Asia and the weak monsoon, we have been growing a little less than that.

In the first quarter, our growth was around 15%, in the second quarter 17%. We'll be growing anywhere between these two, 15% to 17%.

We are very cautious in our growth.

Shishuan Gao

Okay. Just to double confirm, your credit cost guidance for the current year is 200 basis points plus 30 basis points temporary, 230 basis points, right?

Then you expect to come down after maybe a couple quarters?

Umesh Revankar

Credit cost, we had given a long-term guidance of 2%, but temporary, maybe certain geographies, it may go up by 30, 40 basis point is what we indicated. It being seasonal and monsoon being weak, we are seeing a little increase in stage 2 and stage 1 in certain geography.

I believe that it will be a seasonal and it should get normalized to overall expectation of 2%.

Shishuan Gao

All right. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Piran Engineer with [CLSA?]

. Please go ahead.

Piran Engineer

Hi team. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the quarter.

Just one or two clarifications. Firstly, sir, this MSME lending growth which has just suddenly picked up this quarter, is there an ECLGS portion of it also?

Umesh Revankar

No, we have not availed any ECLGS. Sir.

Then

Piran Engineer

this quarter we've disbursed almost ₹10,000 crores. In the peak it has been 7,500, and last few quarters we were doing around ₹6,000 crores.

Just a sudden 50% jump, what drove that in disbursements?

Umesh Revankar

I know, I know. See, we have been informing in the previous quarter call also that we are focusing on MSME and we are reaching out to larger geography.

Earlier our focus was mostly in the southern market and to some extent in the western market. Now we are growing across India.

The MSME growth is mainly because of larger geography we are reaching out.

Piran Engineer

Fair. Sir, just on your other comment that you made that near term for one or two quarters NIM will be at these levels and then medium term it will decline to 9% because the equity capital gets utilized.

On the other hand, our borrowing cost will also keep going down, right? Net-net, NIM should not decline.

Umesh Revankar

No, we are talking about increasing interest cost, that's one thing. Also as we lend to more new vehicles where the yields are a little lower, definitely there will be some NIM compression.

Piran Engineer

Okay. Just last one for Parag sir.

What proportion of our bank borrowings have been migrated to EBLR? Or we are still on MCLR with some banks?

Umesh Revankar

We'll get back with the numbers through Sanjay.

Piran Engineer

Sure sir, sure. Thanks and wish you all the best.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Raghav Garg with Ambit Capital.

Please go ahead.

Raghav Garg

Hi, good evening and thanks for the opportunity. I just have two questions.

One, in your total disbursements and your AUM, what is the contribution from new vehicles, and if you can spread that between commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles?

The breakup of new and used will be provided through Sanjay, you can reach out to Sanjay post the call. He will help you out.

Raghav Garg

Sure. Then what would be the yield differential between the new and used vehicle financing?

Umesh Revankar

It depends upon segment to segment. It will be between 200 to 400 basis points.

Raghav Garg

Understood. One more question if I can ask, please.

Please. Yeah.

Raghav Garg

Okay. I hear you out on the asset quality bit.

I look at the slippages which have gone up some 50% Y-o-Y. You would attribute that entirely to the geographical disturbances because of, I think you're saying weak rainfall or less rainfall.

Is that the only reason, or there is something else also to it?

Umesh Revankar

It is largely due to that. We can't have a pinpoint reason everywhere.

India is such a large country. There will be fluctuations in the income on various, but drought-prone areas, we see it a little higher.

Raghav Garg

Understood. Any data that you can give of how much of your slippages would have come from say the drought-prone states or areas if you would have worked that out?

Umesh Revankar

I don't have it right across. I'll ask Sanjay to provide it.

Raghav Garg

Sure. That's all from my side.

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Dheeraj Malvi with Wealthify.

Please go ahead.

Good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.

My question relates to the reports of alleged unauthorized loan account in Kerala. Could management clarify the current status of investigation and the root cause of this incident?

Given the company branch expansion plan, what measures are being taken to ensure that expansion does not compromise KYC verification and employee oversight? See,

this question we'll take it offline. You may reach out to Sanjay and then he will assist you in this.

Fair enough. My second question is what progress have you seen in the construction equipment segment?

Since your previous guidance said that loan book would start growing from Q2 FY27, is the recovery demand progressing as expected?

Umesh Revankar

See, construction equipment sales have grown up and the demand is picking up now. Last year our overall construction equipment book came down because of the government spend on infrastructure came down and demand came down.

Now in the last quarter, we are seeing the government spend is going up and slowly the demand for construction equipment is coming back.

Fair enough. That's it from my side.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Kunal Shah with Citi.

Please go ahead.

Kunal Shah

Hi sir. Firstly, as you indicated on terms of the credit cost, it might be elevated for a couple of quarters and we are seeing higher slippages in few of the geographies.

What are the maybe the tightness in credit filters if we had done in any of this, and should it actually impact the growth momentum? Because this quarter, when you look at it with the credit cost, still the growth is much higher.

It's almost like 5-odd percent quarter-on-quarter. Would this lead to some kind of a moderation in the overall growth momentum as well with the tightness in the credit filters?

Umesh Revankar

See, the seasonal impact has nothing to do with credit filters. Credit filters we'll have normally a proper credit filters done at every geography have a separate credit filter.

Sudden if at all I had done some loan at 2 years back, and there is unseasonal negative impact because of certain reason, that will have some impact on the performance of the loan. Definitely, whenever the environment are a little against, like economic activity slowing down, only then we decrease our LTVs and tighten the lending.

Otherwise, we don't really change the LTV norms. Our credit filters, for example, will remain almost same for the full year unless there are certain reasons to believe that the economy is slowing down or particular segment is not doing well.

We don't see any of that, and all the economic indicators say that India is growing well. Credit demand is quite good.

We are also witnessing the demand In fact, the demand from rural was much higher in the last two quarters. Only now in the last 1 month, we have been a little cautious on certain drought-prone areas.

Kunal Shah

Okay. Overall in terms of growth, you still indicated you would be growing at 15% to 17-odd percent.

Maybe this quarter quarter-on-quarter run rate was 5-odd percent, and generally second half is better than that of first half, and we are already more than 8-odd percent or so. What is making us guide slightly slower?

Maybe even if we assume say this is 5% this quarter, and it picks up in Q3, and then maybe similar level, then also it takes it to a slightly higher percentage. I was just trying to gauge whether maybe credit cost is slightly making you more conservative on the growth side, or this 15% to 17% is a relatively conservative growth guidance?

Umesh Revankar

See, basically because of the impact of the monsoon, we are a little cautious in certain geographies. That's the main reason to give a conservative numbers.

Kunal Shah

Okay. How much would this drought-prone area be as a proportion of AUM if you have to look at it?

Umesh Revankar

I don't have the number. Generally, the Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana are the largest hit now.

We have reasonably large size there, but exact numbers I can give through Sanjay.

Kunal Shah

Sure. Then in terms of the utilization of liquidity, to what extent are we done?

When I look at cash plus investments, maybe it's down to like ₹31, ₹32-odd thousand crores from ₹38,000 crores. How much of utilization, and what level we would be comfortable in this kind of a macro environment?

In terms of borrowings, is it now we should start to see the increase in the borrowings also coming through, or maybe there is still the room to repay the borrowings going forward and manage the maybe overall at least on the borrowing side and not have too much of an impact on the funding cost?

Parag Sharma

Yeah. I think this quarter we have started our borrowing program, be it bonds, bank borrowing.

It is back to the pre-March level. We have borrowed around ₹27,000 crores in the last quarter.

Liquidity-wise, we have brought down the liquidity, and it is now at our 3 months of future liability level. Nothing of excess liquidity now, and our borrowing program will continue the way it was in the previous quarters.

Kunal Shah

Okay. Now it will be almost equivalent to the AUM growth.

Whatever AUM, maybe now we will have to borrow and there is no excess liquidity which would be applied towards the growth.

Parag Sharma

Correct. That is right.

Kunal Shah

Got it. Perfect.

Thanks, and all the best. Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Shreepal Doshi with Equirus.

Please go ahead.

Shreepal Doshi

Hi, sir. Thank you for giving me the opportunity.

My question was again on the increase in GS2 and GS3. Is it purely because of the drought situation in the states highlighted by you, or is it also because of the heavy monsoon or flood-like situation in the northern part of the country?

If you have to attribute a weight, how would it be, the impact?

Umesh Revankar

See, flooding is something very normal in the monsoon season. It will not have any negative impact.

It is temporary, some 2, 3 days impact will be there. That will not impact the overall progress or economic activity.

The drought-prone areas only will have a lower income due to the agriculture output being lower. When the income slows down, consumption comes down, overall demand and economic activity comes down.

These are the main reason where the businesses slow down, and cash flow gets stressed, and people normally miss out on one or two EMI. That need not be really worry us because most of our lending is against the asset.

That asset values have remained very strong throughout. There is resale value of every asset has been quite good.

Nothing really to worry about a long-term prospect or increase in the credit cost.

Shreepal Doshi

Got it. Sir, the second question was on the construction equipment segment.

While we have seen strong bounce back in disbursements, but the GS2, GS3 indicators here also show an increase. What is it that is giving us comfort on the incremental side that we have got back to high disbursement phase?

Umesh Revankar

Repeat again, please.

Shreepal Doshi

In the construction equipment segments, there is a strong bounce back in the disbursements. However, if you look at the GS2 and GS3, the asset quality indicators, that continue to go up.

What is it that is giving us comfort or how to read into this two data points? See,

if you see the absolute amount, it is still coming down quarter-on-quarter, even though the disbursements have been better this quarter. The previous quarter's gross stage 3 was ₹874 crores, absolute amount, and this quarter it is 862.

Similarly, gross stage 2 if you see, it's 953 previous quarter, this quarter is 963. Not much of a difference as such.

It's more of a denominator effect, which is causing the spike in the percentages.

Shreepal Doshi

Got it. All right, sir.

Thank you so much for answering my questions, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Singh with [Antique?]

. Please go ahead.

Hi, sir. Sir, my question is on the cost of funds.

Earlier we had guided a 100 a 100 bps compression in cost of funds because of the various factors. Does that guidance still stay, or there is revision on that part?

That

Umesh Revankar

we also mentioned that in case the rates don't go up, we'll be able to reduce. As of now, this quarter it has come down by 15 basis point.

If rate further goes up and continue to remain even at the current level, we may not be able to reduce our borrowing cost. We are confident of maintaining it at the current level.

Okay. Sir, in terms of the asset quality, if I look at the accretion from the MSME segment in terms of the GS3, incrementally the accretion on GS3 from the MSME is quite higher compared to its share in the disbursement.

Any color, what cohort or is there any specific geography which is not performing as per what we had envisaged earlier?

Umesh Revankar

What is it? [whispering] No, basically, as I was explaining you, in certain geographies, the seasonal impact is there, and therefore there is an elevated stage 2 and stage 1.

We believe it is a temporary one, and it get normalized in the subsequent quarters.

Sir, what would be the share of unsecured exposure in MSME?

Umesh Revankar

Unsecured?

Unsecured MSME.

28% is unsecured, and 72% 28

Umesh Revankar

28% is unsecured.

Got it, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Abhishek Murarka with HSBC.

Please go ahead.

Abhishek Murarka

Sir. Good evening.

Am I audible?

Umesh Revankar

Yeah.

Abhishek Murarka

Yeah. Sir, my question is on gold, similar to what was just asked on MSME.

Now, the GS2, GS3 growth for the past three quarters, if you look at the Q-o-Q movement, is very high. I understand there won't be losses, obviously I'm not worried about that.

Have you looked into reasons why GS2, GS3 are going up? Apart from the macro reasons or rain-related reasons, any micro reasons specific to your book why GS2, GS3 are going up?

Umesh Revankar

No, Abhishek, no, it's basically because we had introduced EMI and interest-servicing gold loans.

Abhishek Murarka

Okay.

Umesh Revankar

People are habituated to servicing only bullet repayment. We are trying to introduce because they can get a little more loan if they opt for EMI and interest.

That's the only thing. Once people get used to it, then I think there may not be a challenge.

Since they are used to only bullet payment, this servicing is not on time. That is the main reason.

Abhishek Murarka

Sir, when a loan gets into delay, it gets into 0 to 30 or 30 to 60, at that time what is the measure you are taking? Because that is the time when you have to tell the customer that you have to pay on time and not delay, right?

What do you do at that time, and why is it that can't arrest it even 90 days later? Because GS3 means that 90 days has passed at least.

After you start calling

Umesh Revankar

Abhishek, we can always take action and sell the gold and appropriate it. We don't have any credit cost in the gold loan.

You understand that.

Abhishek Murarka

No, I understand that, sir. I'm not worried about loss, as I said upfront.

Umesh Revankar

Upfront, we have to educate the customer.

Abhishek Murarka

Prior to that action, what is

Umesh Revankar

It is educating the customer. We have to educate the customer saying that interest has to be serviced every month.

The communication, educating takes time.

Abhishek Murarka

Okay. By when do you think this stabilizes?

Umesh Revankar

No, it will stabilize. As we are now increasing our communication to the customer, it will stabilize and become normal.

People will understand that paying EMI and interest servicing will help them. They will also have higher amount of gold loan because LTVs are a little higher for that, and also their credit score will improve when they pay time.

Abhishek Murarka

Sure, sir. Sir, these customers you're lending to, these are existing customers for other products or these are freshly sourced customers?

Umesh Revankar

It could be both. We have exclusive branches also for gold loan, and we also have gold loan as a product in our existing branch.

It could be both.

Abhishek Murarka

Predominantly, ₹9,000 crores would be to, do you have just a broad split to understand where this book is going?

Umesh Revankar

Pardon? 9,000?

[whispering]

Abhishek Murarka

₹9,000 crore AUM.

Umesh Revankar

Yeah. Would

Abhishek Murarka

Predominantly it would to fresh customers or what is the proportion of the existing customers to fresh customers? Just a broad ballpark split.

Umesh Revankar

I don't have number right now. Probably Sanjay will help you to get it.

Abhishek Murarka

Okay. All right, sir.

Thank you and all the best.

Umesh Revankar

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Renish with ICICI.

Please go ahead.

Renish Bhuva

Hi sir. Sir, just one thing on the margin trajectory, right?

When can you expect the entire excess liquidity to get absorbed? When we look at the pre-deal margin trajectory, which used to be between 8.5% to 9%, and then sort of you were expecting the structural decline in the cost of fund by almost 100 basis point, and I can understand that the rate cycle reversal might be a challenge on that.

Sort of how do you see 9.5% NIM in near-term moving, and structurally where do you see ultimately NIM settling when entire excess liquidity gets absorbed?

Umesh Revankar

See, I can't have an exact number because the repo rate increase they have done after long time now, and there is an indication that it may go up further in the next policy rate also. We do not know.

If the food inflation doesn't go up, it may not go up. There is so many ifs and buts.

Also there is a view on the war being stopped, crude going down, so many things. How can I exactly tell you how it will move?

It is not. That's why we are telling you in the medium term it come down to around 9.

In long term, it will settle down at around 8.5. Exact timing is not possible to calculate.

Renish Bhuva

Okay. Basically you are saying in a steady state NIM would be 8% to 8.5%, factoring our entry into large-ticket new vehicle, etc.

Is that the fair

Umesh Revankar

assumption? See, new vehicle will keep growing in our book because we would like to retain our customers.

That is one factor. The other factors, which is not in our control, is the interest rate environment.

Renish Bhuva

Correct. In that case, doesn't our sort of the pricing policy can factor those changes, and still sort of give us a closer numbers to our, let us say, the planned NIM, etc., or our asset nature doesn't allow us that flexibility?

Umesh Revankar

See, pricing I can do only for the new loan that I am booking. For existing loan, I can't do it, no?

Right. I can price it only for the new loans.

We don't have a floating rate scenario. NBFCs normally have fixed-rate lending.

Renish Bhuva

Got it. Sir.

Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Aditya Tiwari with MK Research.

Please go ahead.

Hi. Good evening.

My first question is regarding the gold financing, that has seen a stellar growth of around 60% year-on-year in this quarter. In previous quarter, the management has stated that the gold will grow faster than the company, but there are some signs of concerns in the gold loan segment.

In fact, there has been some rising instances on the multiple borrowing against gold loans. Few of the companies has also stated that there has been on industry level, the gold loans are emerging as a stress segment, and few of the banks have also deliberately moderated their gold loan growth.

In fact, for the stage 2 and stage 3 assets for our company has also increased. Is there any signs of concerns that you are seeing on a industry level in terms of gold financing?

Umesh Revankar

No, we don't really see any kind of a challenge as far as proper care is taken in identifying the customer or credit process and also valuing the gold properly. As I was explaining you, the main reason for increase in the stage 1 and stage 2 was the interest and EMI products, customers not understanding the product and waiting for the bullet payment.

That's the main reason. We don't really see any challenge, and we feel that gold loan industry or opportunity in gold loan is very high.

Therefore, I don't want to speak on behalf of the industry, because we are having a small portfolio, but we feel that's very bright opportunity in growing our gold portfolio.

Okay. Does in quarter one, the management has stated that the target for gold financing is to grow the book double in next 3 years, from around 2.5% to around 5% of the book.

Does that guidance remain intact, or any kind of changes or revisions are there?

Umesh Revankar

No change in revision, and there is no change. We will go as per the plan.

Okay. Just wanted to confirm regarding the AUM growth guidance for FY27.

That has been cut to around 15% to 17% from 18% earlier, correct?

Umesh Revankar

Yeah.

The credit cost guidance for FY27, that has increased to around 2.3% to a range of around 2.4% from 2% earlier.

Umesh Revankar

I said there will be temporary increase of 30 to 40 basis point and not for the full year. I feel the full year credit cost can be much lower than the 2.3.

Temporary it may be for this quarter and next quarter.

Got it. Just wanted to confirm one last thing.

In the MSME segment, the stress is predominantly because of the drought-affected regions, right? There aren't any other reasons for this stress in MSME?

Umesh Revankar

I don't really see any other reasons, because other factors like increase in cost of raw material, increase in labor cost, all these things have been already factored. Only in certain geography there are some challenges because of seasonality.

Got that point. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Pranuj Shah with 3P Investment Managers.

Please go ahead.

Pranuj Shah

Hi, thanks for taking my question. My first question is on the opex growth has been quite benign despite our disbursements picking up pretty sizeably.

Is there any reversal? What is driving that?

No,

the previous quarter we had the annual bonuses released for the back office team, and hence the staff cost was slightly elevated. The current quarter was more normalized.

Having said that, the medium to long-term guidance will be the cost to income will be around 25%.

Pranuj Shah

Sir, when you say 25%, it is on the current base of your NIMs, because your NIMs also you're saying will come off pretty meaningfully in the medium term. That is you're considering an 8.5% NIM, right?

No, that is for the long term, that's what Mr. Revankar had mentioned.

In the medium term, it will be hovering around 9% is what he had mentioned.

Pranuj Shah

Understood. Even if I look at your opex to AUM, that has fallen off pretty meaningfully.

If I were to just look at in terms of opex growth relative to AUM growth, should that continue to trend downwards, or how should we look at it?

It should be in the same level.

Pranuj Shah

Sorry, your 2Q 2Q is at 2.5% level, you expect that kind of a opex to AUM to continue?

See, what will happen is that there'll be additional cost on the technology front, and that may have an impact on the overall opex.

Pranuj Shah

Okay. Second question is can you disclose what is your disbursements in gold loan this quarter, and what is your LTV this quarter and last quarter?

We have the disbursement number. I just tell you.

Current quarter gold disbursement was ₹5,443 crores.

Pranuj Shah

Understood. What is the LTV on your book, including the interest accrued?

It should be around 72%

Pranuj Shah

to 73%. 72% to 73%.

What would this be last quarter? It

should be in the same region. There's nothing significant change in that.

The disbursement for the previous quarter was ₹5,153 crores.

Pranuj Shah

I had that number. Thank you.

Thanks a lot. That's it from my end.

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Hardik Shah with MLP.

Please go ahead.

Hardik Shah

Hi, thank you for the opportunity, sir. My first question is in terms of your assessment of the IRDA circular that has come through, what could be the potential impact for us in terms of insurance income?

Number one. Number two, to clarify the understanding on credit cost, you guided for 2.3% for full year.

If you can kind of clarify in terms of how that would trend directionally from 2Q to 3Q, and how are you assessing it for the second half? Because your first half credit cost is around 2.1.

Full year 2.3% would imply around 2. more than 2.4% credit cost for second half.

How to think about this?

Umesh Revankar

See, on the second question, I told very clearly that it'll be temporarily elevated for this quarter and next quarter. We cannot be giving you at this stage a number 2.3 for the full year.

We can't be. I said it's a temporary 30, 40 basis point for one or two quarters.

We would like to wait and see how it will impact. Generally affected period only it goes up, that's one.

As far as the IRDA is concerned, it's a draft guidelines. There is representation from the manufacturers on the distribution income to the distributor, because the growth in insurance is dependent on distributors.

Major impact on the distributors' income will impact the growth in the insurance business. I believe that IRDA will look into it, and probably come out with revised guidelines or revised rates.

We are waiting for the same. However, given current state of affairs, the income may come down by 50% of what it is now.

For Shriram Finance is concerned, the fee income due to distribution is very insignificant, very small portion of our total income. We are not majorly impacted.

Got it.

Hardik Shah

Can you quantify that?

The previous year full year, the insurance commissions that we received was around ₹350 crores. If the proposed guidelines come, there may be maybe around 100-odd crores of impact on that.

For the size of our balance sheet, it is not material.

Hardik Shah

Understood. Very clear.

Perfect. Thank you.

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Umesh Revankar for closing comments.

Umesh Revankar

Thank you everyone for joining. As you are aware, there were multiple headwinds for us in last two quarters, one due to West Asia crisis where the petroleum product prices went up and so many other raw material prices went up, and secondly now due to El Niño situation, monsoon being a weak.

In spite of that, the company has performed very well. We are very confident to do much better in the busy season.

Normally second half of the year is much busier, and we are confident of outperforming and coming back to you again. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of Shriram Finance Limited, that concludes this conference.

Thank you everyone for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.