Prysmian S.p.A.

Prysmian S.p.A.

PRYMF
Prysmian S.p.A.US flagOther OTC
147.35
USD
-7.31
- -
43.06BMarket Cap

Q2 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptJuly 30, 2026

APIChatGPT

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Prysmian First Half 2026 Integrated Results Webcast and Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Massimo Battaini, Chief Executive Officer of Prysmian.

Please go ahead.

Massimo Battaini

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining this call, Quarter 2 result.

We are super excited to highlight that this is the best quarter ever of Prysmian, EUR 730 million EBITDA, 13.4% EBITDA margin, 9.4% organic growth. So as you see it's a great quarter from the numbers perspective.

It is also great in terms of the achievement of the hyperscalers and Molex deals with a EUR 10 billion in the optical space over the next 10 years. Also, on the sustainability side, we exceeded our expectation with that 46% of the current revenue leading to sustainable solutions.

When you read 46%, you need to read almost EUR 10 billion revenues, where we provide customers with low carbon footprint and solution that has achieved their own targets. 42% is the amazing reduction of Scope 1 and 2 over the baseline of 2019, setting great confidence in achieving the Net Zero by 2035, well ahead of everybody else.

Moving to this quarter 2 perspective, I think is important to share these slides now moving up, right? It's important to share this different perspective, which we are very proud of.

You see in quarter 2, we delivered -- we created EBITDA higher than what has taken us more than 12 months in the past. In '19 -- 2018, sorry, we generated EUR 700 million EBITDA over the full year.

In 2022, it has taken us 6 months, 1 semester, to deliver a similar EBITDA. Now, we did this in 1 quarter.

This is a strong sign of the effectiveness and the good execution of the strategy that we designed years ago. So the strategy is basically set on expanding the transmission business, growing leadership in North America, thanks to the acquisition.

And also, shifting our focus from cable manufacturer that was our past driver of growth to solution provider. Entering to the digital solutions space with more detail, I think you read the press release.

I'd like to give you more color around the deals. So these are EUR 10 billion revenues that applies to the optical space.

Forgive us, there is a time lag in the change -- in the slide change. You see at the bottom on the right that our digital solutions business cover 3 segment of buisness.

One is optical, which is -- which account for 40% of the revenues in digital; connectivity, so components to connect cables; and MMS, which is copper cables, both the last 2 accounted for 30% of the total revenue. You see on the left chart, the green bars has played our involvement in data center activities.

The horizontal line sets the scene relative to the past situation where we had in '25 green data center exposure -- data center exposure in green and in gray fiber to the home business. You see that we're adding this EUR 1.1 billion at run rate incremental revenue.

At the same time, we are reallocating the best parts of the original fiber to the home business to data center to gain even more share. And when you look at the 2031 perspective, you see that 90% of our revenues and even more in terms of EBITDA belongs to data center expansion.

And we see ourselves as the company enabling the data center expansion better than anybody else because alongside optical, we have the whole range of -- a broad range of power cable products. Lastly to mention is the submarine telecom interconnection long haul, thanks to the Xtera acquisition.

So this is definitely a transformative opportunity for the Digital Solutions space in Prysmian. From a very cyclical business into a fast-growing business that is meant to achieve a sizable EBITDA by 2031.

We'll give you more detail about this at the next capital market. Moving to the segment business, transmission continues very strong journey in terms of EBITDA margin at 22%, 21.2%.

In terms of organic growth, extremely solid, 14.3% in quarter 2, and in absolute value, EUR 180 million in quarter 2. When you compare this to same quarter last year, You see almost EUR 60 million EBITDA accretion.

In Power Grid, we confirm what we basically told you last quarter, you see a significant rebound in EBITDA margin from 12.4% to 13.8% sequentially with EUR 135 million EBITDA, supported by strong demand in U.S. and also strong demand in Europe.

But I will say that there is a kind of solid demand across all the other regions, because the strengthening of the grid is a very common underlying driver of growth across all segment or market in our geographies. The organic growth was particularly satisfactory at 13-point -- 13% increase in this quarter.

Moving to Industrial Construction. Also here, we improved significantly EUR 228 million EBITDA, EUR 20 million sequentially over 2025 quarter 2 with a EUR 5 million headwind coming from ForEx, even better when we excluded the ForEx effect.

EBITDA margin rebounded from the 13% of quarter 1. We had a very strong quarter 2, especially in the United States with a very strong month of June inside this quarter 2.

Organic growth in U.S. is higher than the group average, 13.4%, driven by data centers, so but not only also driven by the nonresidential market that has showed different signs, new signs of improvement vis-a-vis a kind of a flattish situation in 2025.

Specialties is still suffering from weak demand in elevator in oil and gas and profitability under pressure in the automotive business that is remaining with us. But we maintain it stable.

It is a solid driver of EBITDA in different regions and is a nice complement to the industrial construction business because those are sophisticated -- sorry, cables that we couple with industrial construction business to electrify equipment alongside buildings. So it's an important complement and portion of our portfolio.

Digital, digital is the star of the quarter, you see the outstanding EBITDA margin, 24% coming from 20.6% in quarter 1, and 24% is not the end of the game. It's not the end of the story.

The 24% we go further up in the future. So this is set to be the most profitable business from the EBITDA margin perspective inside our portfolio, beating the transmission business at 21% EBITDA margin in the quarter.

You see how sizable is the increase over quarter 2 '25, EUR 60 million, out of which EUR 30 million are attributed to the perimeter change. Last year, we had Channell, including the quarter only for 1 month.

This year it's for the full period. But the rest from EUR 60 million to EUR 90 million is Channell from EUR 90 million to EUR 122 million is DSE's original perimeter.

And you see the power of pricing efficiency, scale and the shift from fiber to the home to data center. Our sustainability and innovation KPIs are also extremely satisfactory.

The 25% recycled content in quarter 2 is a sign of lower reliance on the tight copper market in the United States. We recycle more waste than we used to do in the past, lowering our cost and the shortening the -- and securing the supply chain and sharpening lead time.

46% revenues are commented already before. This 32% of Vitality KPI is also an important indicator of a crucial and key for this company is to continue innovation.

This is starting at 1/3 of our revenue have been achieved through products that we launched to the market in the last 3 years. And 1/3 of our revenue accounts for EUR 7 billion.

So we have, in this year, EUR 7 billion revenues generated by new products. Why is this important?

Because you probably set higher share of wallet, it means higher profitability. It means a different pricing power.

It means a different value provided to our customers to strengthen our relationship. So key parameter for our growth in the future as well in the past.

For example, of the innovation hollow-core fiber is an innovative solution to convey data through air, so that faster -- 30% faster than standard glass technology, allowing the data center to this further space out avoiding to greater congestion on existing energy grids, which is the real constraint to the data center structure. And also in the transmission business, a very innovative solution to bury cable at a deeper depth, greater depth than the standard methodology making the network more secure, more resilient and providing customer an upside in terms of reliability of the connection.

Let me hand over to Francesco for more details on the financial results of the quarter.

Pier Facchini

Thank you very much, Massimo, and good morning to everybody. As usual, let me use the profit and loss to recap some of the messages that Massimo has already passed.

The organic growth in the first half was in excess of 7% with a very good acceleration in the second quarter, reaching 9.4% in the second quarter. I have to say that all the segments of the company performed extremely well in terms of organic growth with a growth of 14% in Transmission, 13% in Power Grid, 9% in I&C, 18% in Digital Solutions, with the only little exception of specialties, which was substantially flat or slightly negative in the quarter.

The performance was very strong in terms of EBITDA, as Massimo said, the best yet quarter at EUR 730 million with sequentially increasing EBITDA margin at standard metal at 15.4% and with a very substantial growth from the second quarter of last year, plus EUR 125 million, but also sequentially from Q1, plus EUR 130 million, as you see, from the right box of this chart. The lion's share of this growth was taken by transmission and Digital Solutions, plus EUR 54 million and plus EUR 65 million, respectively.

Of course, with the support also of a great performance of Channell that Massimo mentioned. Power Grid improved margin sequential, which is very important.

And as you have seen, organic growth in Power Grid, both in Europe and North America was extremely positive. Electrification and particularly I&C performed the best quarter in the last, I would say, 18 months Yes.

So very positive, specifically in North America. Very good note also on the group net profit that reached EUR 569 million in the first half, by far the highest ever.

And this is other than the EBITDA and the operating result, supported by a very nice drop in financial charges that you see here. A slight improvement also of the tax rate.

And this assess our group net profit estimate for the full year in excess of EUR 1.2 billion, which will mean a growth of earnings per share, which is significantly beyond the original targets that we had set. Let me now turn to the cash generation, which was solid, close to EUR 1 billion in the last 12 months as of June, a bit lower than the one that we had in Q1.

The main reason -- I would say, the only reason is the very high impact and adverse impact of the rising metal prices, which was -- which reached actually the peak in the Q2 and which will progressively decrease in terms of adverse effect in the second half. Massimo will show you the updated guidance on the free cash flow, but we plan an extremely strong second half on the back, of course, of the contract with Molex, which will bring in a very substantial down payment.

But even more importantly, on the back of a very strong cash flow coming from the transmission business. This year, the transmission business cash flow is mainly concentrated in the second half, and we are also doing great in terms of improving our working capital performance and efficiencies.

And all this will contribute to this quite, I would say, strong target that we have set for the year, Massimo will explain in a while. I think I move back to Massimo.

Massimo Battaini

Francesco, thank you. So quickly, two main changes, the EBITDA, we raised this EUR 2.7 billion of the original guidance to EUR 2.850 billion, so a range of EUR 2.8 billion, EUR 2.9 billion.

It is worth saying that we have super high confidence to be the EUR 2.850 billion to end up in the top portion of -- in the upper part of the range, EUR 2.850 billion to EUR 2.9 billion. You'll see that EUR 2.850 billion itself is already quite close to the target we set for 2028 at the Capital Market in 2025, which means that we will certainly in the next quarter 1, quarter 2, '26, sorry, we will go out for a new Capital Market Day, providing and disclosing the trajectory from 2027 through 2030, 2031 with organic growth and a strong driver explanation of where we see this growth in the different geographies.

Free cash flow is an amazing number. Now EUR 1.7 billion is of course the highest ever free cash flow of the company.

It is true that there is a EUR 550 million coming from Molex as a down payment, but equally important to mention that there are significant increase in CapEx, partly to support digital solution capacity expansion, but partly to start showing the growth that we had to underline that we will disclose next year at the Capital Market Day that is organic across many segments and main geographies, North America, but also Europe, but also other regions and transmission. So the EUR 1.7 billion is the effect of Molex on the one hand, some additional CapEx in '26 that will continue stronger in '27, and beyond, with the efficiency and the additional EBITDA offsetting the metal impact versus the original guidance.

And the metal impact is around EUR 250 million. With this, I move to the closing remarks, so great performance, super satisfied by the change in pace of the company, the company showed this quarter.

As I said before, we have this unique opportunity to be the only one serving data center with the whole product range they need for this function. We are going to invest in growth in '26 and beyond '26, and acceleration, I mean, paves the way for a new Capital Market Day in the start '27.

I would like to hand over to you for your questions and more details about our success story.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from the line of Daniela Costa of Goldman Sachs.

Daniela Costa

I have two questions. I'll ask them one at a time.

But first, I just wanted to follow up on sort of the going forward, how should we think about fiber margins from here? Should we think about sort of having a linear step-up?

I think in the past, you have commented about mid-20% EBITDA margin, given all that happened in that segment and your new exposure. Is that still appropriate and sort of how the path is more linear, more back-end loaded?

If you could give some color on that, and then, I'll ask the second one.

Massimo Battaini

Yes. The path, Daniela, is pretty linear through 2029 because the shortage in the market will continue until then.

And we have I mean accurate targets, then we'll disclose at the Capital Market Day. We see us in the upper part of the range, 25% to 30%.

So we will beat the 25% mid 20s and consider that's not only fiber will drive the growth, but also connectivity, especially the Channell portion, which is also partly exposed to the data center will support the EBITDA margin growth in the coming quarters.

Daniela Costa

Sorry, 25% to 30%, that's kind of like, for the '29 period that you've mentioned or that's sort of throughout the period and then you...

Massimo Battaini

It's linear from '27 to '28 to go as high as between 25% and 30%...

Daniela Costa

Okay. And then just second question.

I think in the past, you had tied up doing a update on the medium-term targets with sort of your M&A ambitions. I wonder if should we read anything into the timing of the CMD and that, if you could update a little bit how you're progressing on sort of your ambitions there?

Massimo Battaini

We are making progress. We analyzed a lot of companies in the last 12 months, and it could well be the case that we cannot comment much, but it could well be the case there before then we will have a perimeter change.

So that new ambition will include both organic and M&A perimeter benefit -- additional benefit from the perimeter.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Vivek Midha of Citi.

Vivek Midha

Hope you can hear me well?

Massimo Battaini

Yes.

Vivek Midha

My first question is around the Molex deal. You've highlighted the figure of over EUR 10 billion of cumulative optical data center revenues, of which Molex is EUR 5.5 billion.

So within the other portion of that figure, could you maybe give us an indication of how much of that has already been signed as of today versus how much you're anticipating in deals to come?

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Vivek. The EUR 5.5 is the Molex, as you said.

The balance is the hyperscalers, or players in the infrastructure deployment of data center function. And the balance is not as long in terms of duration as the Molex deal, which is a 10-year deal.

But for the next 5 to 6 years, the rest is also covered by deals already signed. We are also thinking of making a second wave of capacity expansion because there's still a lot of demand unsatisfied in the market.

We keep receiving a request for additional volume delivered to existing customer, new customer, and I am sure pretty confident that over the next 2 quarters, we will sign new deals in addition to the one that we agreed will end in the last 2 months.

Vivek Midha

Just a follow-up to clarify. So is that -- are those -- that second wave of deals over and above the EUR 10 billion?

Or is this part of the EUR 10 billion?

Massimo Battaini

It will be over and above EUR 10 billion agreements.

Vivek Midha

Okay. Understood.

My second question is on the I&C margin. It's a very strong organic growth, particularly in the U.S.

The margin is down year-on-year. The U.S.

is typically margin accretive in that business or it is margin accretive in this business. So why is the margin not stronger?

And maybe could you elaborate on how the margin has developed in both Europe and the U.S.?

Massimo Battaini

Yes. Thank you, Vivek.

Yes, U.S. is accretive.

We also have another region that is highly accretive, which is LatAm. And so the margin in LatAm are not as high as U.S., but close to.

And in LatAm, we have a, I mean softening margin in a couple of countries, one is Colombia, one is Argentina. And this is the reason why year-over-year, the margin are still slightly down.

Also mentioned that the quarter 2 was a strong quarter in U.S., but June was the strongest quarter -- the strongest month ever. April and May were not as strong as last year.

And so when you compare the year over year, the margin of quarter 2 '26, with '25, bring into account that also U.S did very well in June, but not as well as quarter 2 last year in April and May. But mainly the major effect is this weakening in the LatAm region.

Operator

We will now take our the next question comes from the line of Akash Gupta of JPMorgan.

Akash Gupta

And I got 2 as well. The first one is a follow-up on these framework agreements and that you have signed in optical fiber and cable business.

So Massimo, you previously said margins of Channell are higher than your remaining digital solution business because they sell directly to hyperscalers while your products were going through some intermediary companies that buy your products and then sell it to hyperscalers. So the question is that when you sign these optical fiber, cable framework and you have Molex, you have directly with some hyperscalers.

My question is that does the margin in framework agreement directly signed with hyperscalers differs than when you sign with companies like Molex? Or are they same?

So that's the first 1 to start with.

Massimo Battaini

Yes. Thank you.

Interesting perspective. The margins today are even higher than what we have in the long-term deals.

The approach was that we wanted to trade a longer duration and security margin over a longer time than the best margin possible in the small business. When it comes to comparison comparing Molex to hyperscalers, the margin across these 2 different customers is pretty much the same because new deals or recent deals have better margins than what we signed 2 months ago.

And some of those agreements, Molex was signed 3 weeks ago, but some of the other hyperscale agreements were signed 2 or 3 months ago. So there is a close alignment in margin between the 2 of them.

There is a certainty today and in September or October, November, December for sure, better opportunity to [ OE ] enhance margin with new deals because as I said the capacity is still what it was 1 year ago, and for the next 2 years, will remain unchanged. And what matters is the ability to shift from old or the traditional fiber-to-home customers to data center.

But also bear in mind that the market is buoyant within fiber-to-home customers because they are the reform volume as well. So margins are similar across the whole customer base basically, but they will be progressively growing.

So new deals will give us a stronger profitability. Channell margins are higher because it's not cable.

It's components, it's plastic, metal frame and all the stuff, and the bespoke solution, partly for data center and partly for fiber today.

Akash Gupta

And my follow-up question is on guidance. Today, you are raising guidance by EUR 150 million at the midpoint.

I'm curious if you can help us split how much of that is because of Digital Solutions versus the rest of the company? And when we look at the upgrade that is coming from Digital Solutions, how much of that is already secured based on your renegotiation and higher prices from some contracts that are getting rolled over?

And is there any scope for renegotiating some of the existing contracts in second half that might bring upside to this EUR 150 million?

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Very pertinent question.

The 2 drivers of growth behind this guidance is solidity in Power Grid and electrification, which is the baseline, but certainly, transmission and Digital Solutions are the 2 main contributors to this EUR 150 million or to whatever the number would be that result will be definitely higher than EUR 2.5 billion. Transmission this year will add EUR 200 million EBITDA to last year.

Last year, we ended up with EUR 580 million. You can imagine a number this year, EUR 200 million higher.

And this is embedded in this guidance, not fully embedded in this guidance. Digital Solutions is adding easily EUR 50 million, EUR 70 million, EUR 80 million to the previous guidance due to the repricing of the old business.

We see margin improvement in Digital Solutions every single week. Every single week, we continue renegotiating contracts, frame agreements more than contract with existing fiber-to-the-home customers.

But every single week, we are telling -- we are disappointing customers because we have no fiber to build. So there will be additional chances to build extra profitability in Digital Solutions in the coming months.

Certain point, we reach a balance. Now the market will be fully saturated by existing capacity -- is fully saturated by existing capacity.

There will be no room for new deals, but new room for the deals will come from the additional capacity expansion that we are thinking of negotiating with other players, hyperscalers or other infrastructure players in the second half of 2027. So EUR 150 million, basically solid growth in Power Grid electrification on the one hand, stronger contribution from transmission and digital solutions to top up this number to EUR 850 million and beyond.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Max Yates of Morgan Stanley.

Max Yates

So I just want to start on the hyperscaler agreement. So I think in that press release, you said that you expected your hyperscaler revenues to be around EUR 1.1 billion by 2031.

I was just trying to get a feel for how much of your total Digital Solutions you were expecting the hyperscalers to be? Because look, where I'm going with this is I was struggling to reconcile numbers.

I think you previously said hyperscalers would be most of your optical business. Your optical business is typically 60% of your total business.

So it just seems like quite a low number given where consensus revenues are. So maybe just any kind of any color around that?

How much of that business should be -- that number actually doesn't seem that high in the context of where consensus is?

Massimo Battaini

Yes. I'd like to reset the with, first of all, the breakdown of Digital Solutions revenue between the 3 segments: optical, connectivity and MMS.

2025 revenues, Digital Solutions amounted to EUR 1.6 billion. Out of that EUR 1.6 billion, you should see EUR 600 million more or less optical.

The rest is more or less equally split between connectivity and MMS. When I say EUR 1.1 million -- EUR 1.1 billion data center is incremental.

So the EUR 600 million plus EUR 1.1 billion will make EUR 1.7 billion in the optical space. The data center piece inside the optical space of EUR 1.7 billion revenue by 2030 will account for 85%, 90% of the total revenue.

Today, in the last year in '25, the EUR 600 million revenues in optical, we have more or less EUR 200 million of data center revenues. So from EUR 200 million data center to EUR 1.1 billion additional.

But at the same time, the fiber-to-the-home business, we are shifting to the center. So overall, the EUR 1.7 billion revenue optical total for 2030, take 90%, that will be deficit.

[ So 1.5 ].

Max Yates

That's clear. Yes.

That's very helpful. And maybe just a sort of bigger picture sort of question on tariffs.

So we've seen obviously a huge amount of moving headlines, and I imagine it's very difficult for you to kind of keep on top of. But maybe just sort of your latest on-the-ground perspectives of what all of these tariff headlines, maybe split by copper and aluminum is actually meaning for your business in terms of kind of on the ground activity, how it's driving competitor behavior, whether you've seen any noticeable change in that in the last 3 months and whether these kind of newer tariff headlines, you expect any change maybe in the next 3 to 6 months as a result of any of the developments?

Massimo Battaini

I think we confirmed the trend that we noticed in the market in the last 2 months. One in -- as far as the aluminum cables is concerned, when they shifted from 50% tariff applied to metal to 25% applied to the whole value of the cable, we noticed changes in the market import has became less relevant, because they had to declare the whole value of cable and pay on top of it 25%.

This brought them out of competition in terms of price that could not offer any longer a better price than the local player. And we noticed aluminum wire cables benefit from more pricing or more margin in power in the last 3 months.

As far as the rest is concerned, copper, nothing changed. As far as the future targets is concerned, I don't have a clue.

But I think all those will help again local player to strengthen their position in the market to become even more relevant than importers and hopefully to benefit from incremental margins.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Sean McLoughlin of HSBC.

Sean McLoughlin

Can I start with Power Grid? I mean, impressive organic growth.

And you talk about the positive trajectory continuing. I'm just wondering where you are in terms of your current loading capacity.

And if we look out over the next 12 months, what is driving that positive trajectory? Is it more capacity coming online?

Is it pricing? If you could just maybe flesh that out a little bit in more detail.

That's the first question.

Massimo Battaini

The growth that we planned for our perimeter in Power Grid is coming from additional capacity. We approved 1 year ago additional medium voltage capacity in U.S.

and in Europe. And 2 months ago, we approved another wave of medium volt capacity increase in U.S.

partly of that capacity will serve the I&C, Industrial and Construction market, call it EPC or data center expansion. Part of that medium voltage will be for utilities because don't forget the Power Grids that we have in U.S., mostly in Europe needs continuous reshaping and strengthening and hardening because the additional electricity demand increase across the globe.

We are also positive about the famous cost increase pass-through to the market in order that this time lag effect due to the existing formula. And -- but since the market is buoyant, level of prices is increasing in the market, we will be able -- we should be able to restore this famous 14.5% or 15% EBITDA margin in the coming quarter, maybe quarter 4, maybe quarter 1 this year, I would say.

But the growth opportunity is amazing. We are currently flat out in terms of capacity in Europe and North America.

If you have more, we would sell more at a good price.

Sean McLoughlin

That's very clear. The second question is back to Digital Solutions.

Just on Slide 5 to understand, firstly, the cadence of the incremental revenues, which look to be peaking in '28. And then you have a kind of a further pickup in 2031 after a fade.

I mean, I guess '28 is related to higher CapEx in '26 and '27. Just wondering what's happening on the tail?

And also the substitution switch of current revenues into optical. Is that -- again, should we assume a kind of a linear progression '25 to 31?

Or is that switch out going to happen much more quickly?

Massimo Battaini

So the steady level of capacity expansion run rate will be achieved by 2030. So in 2030, we'll have additional capacity equivalent to EUR 1.1 billion incremental revenues in the data center space in the optical segment of business.

Until then, we will have a marginal improvement on capacity from '28 onwards, but the full run rate is 2030, but we'll have an important benefit by shifting away from fiber-to-the-home to data center. And so I don't know if I answered the question.

But imagine today, we have -- last year, we had EUR 600 million in optical business. In 2030, we'll have EUR 1.7 billion in optical business.

Today, last year, we had EUR 200 million in data center out of this EUR 600 million revenues. In 2030, we'll have EUR 1.5 billion revenue in data center.

I hope the metrics I answered the question, Sean.

Sean McLoughlin

Yes. And I suppose just to follow up on an earlier comment you made about 2029.

You're talking about the fiber shortage continuing up to then. Is -- do you already then assume that by '29, there is more of a supply-demand balance?

Or is there likely to be more, let's say, demand upside risk pushing that date further back?

Massimo Battaini

Unfortunately, Sean, I would be unfair to say if I'm able to read the market in 2029. The comments I would like to make is that it will take 3 years, '27 to 2029 for the players to build this capacity.

And bear in mind that the players I'm talking about is us and [ KONE ] because none of the others are in U.S., and we are talking about U.S. fiber.

The fiber the origin of country, the origin of production of fiber has to be U.S. to avoid the variable tariff if you were producing fiber in China.

And so the volume demand I think will continue. I don't think we'll reach the balance in '29.

In fact, we have a new opportunity to expand capacity now beyond what we already committed to doing for Molex and the others because there is additional demand in the market. What I have to say.

In the end of the day, as far as our contract is concerned, what the volume will be demand in the market will be in '29, '30, '31 is not that relevant because we have security of the margins in absolute value over the next 7 to 10 years, thanks to the contracts. But personally, I believe that this imbalance will continue beyond 2029.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Chris Leonard of UBS.

Christopher Leonard

Maybe a few from me as well, one by one perhaps. Starting on Digital Solutions and thinking about the connectivity piece.

Obviously, you've spoken about incremental revenue you see coming through fiber directly into data centers. I wonder if there's anything you can give us looking out to 2030 on the connectivity portion of the division and whether or not that will also benefit from similar tailwinds and how you kind of think the channel business will progress because obviously, it's a very high-margin?

Massimo Battaini

There is already -- Chris, thank you. There's already a great uptick in the performance of connectivity in the current months because as the market rebound in the U.S.

across fiber-to-the-home and certain data center, also these components of connectivity, closures, boxes, all the stuff that China makes benefit from additional demand and better prices. So we have in quarter 1 and also quarter 2, '26 outperformed the result of Channell in quarter 1 and quarter 2 2025 significantly.

And we expect this to continue. At the same time, we are developing new products, large boxes that goes underground for data center application.

So this will give us the opportunity to add additional [indiscernible] revenue to the Channell business that originally was only fiber-to-the-home adding the data center opportunity to Channell business. And the margins you have in connectivity channel is as high as 35% EBITDA, 36%, 37% EBITDA.

So very accretive to the division.

Christopher Leonard

And still on digital. Can you maybe talk about the phasing of the Molex contract this year?

Are we anticipating a more material step-up in revenue here for Q3, Q4? And with that, obviously higher margins too on the basis of that pricing being captured from data center customers, Molex being one of them.

And equally, the new contracts you just pointed to that you could be signed and maybe already have been signed to take you to EUR 10 billion or above, and those also contribute into the back half of this year?

Massimo Battaini

Yes. I mean the whole market is really demanding more already in '26.

And the phasing of Molex and the other hyperscalers volume growth is consistent with, on the one hand, our speed in expanding capacity in U.S. and not only in U.S., but certainly in the fiber space and with our speed in reallocating volume from existing customers.

But tell you, we are proceeding at a very high pace, both on CapEx and on shifting from fiber to the home to data center. So quarter 2 is much higher than quarter 1 in terms of EBITDA and EBITDA margin.

Quarter 3 will be higher and quarter 4 will be higher. And this will be a journey that we see our capacity increase immediately released to the market, also our ability to renegotiate the existing contract with fiber-to-the-home adding profitability, but also our speed in reallocating volume from fiber-to-the-home to the center adding additional opportunities.

The run rate level, as I said before, will be reached in 2030 when the full capacity will be coming online.

Christopher Leonard

And that's super helpful. And as a follow-up to your earlier comments of margin expansion being quite linear sort of 25%, 30% and confident in the upper end of that range.

Should we think 25% is achievable for your '26 performance in Digital Solutions? Is that kind of what you're pointing to today?

Massimo Battaini

As a run rate of quarter 4, for sure. Of course, the full year depends in quarter 1, we had 20% because we were at the early stage of the pricing improvement.

So if you take first half, we are probably at 22.5%, 23%. Yes, we will end up slightly higher than 25% in quarter 4.

Full year average will be probably southern over 25%. But 27% will be -- the full year will be at a higher level of margins.

Christopher Leonard

Of course. And then finally, going back to electrification and on the low voltage side and thinking about the margin progression here as we've seen some evidence the European market is picking up.

Is there any comments you can make in terms of what you see in terms of the pricing opportunity in Europe? And if you think there's going to be any sort of tailwinds in the next few years on what you can do there?

Massimo Battaini

And we can much more on the rebound that we noticed in the United States and what we've seen in Europe. Europe is stronger than U.S.

last year in terms of demand and pricing, but are still pockets of low margins in Europe and as well in a nice country with high margin. So the real upside from what I see is going to come from stable or mild growth in Europe, volume and margins, significant growth in United States.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Lucas Ferhani of Jefferies.

Lucas Ferhani

Come back on the phasing of the revenues in Digital Solutions. When I look at 2027, I'm wondering where is the acceleration coming from versus 2026?

Just because at that point, my understanding was that the repricing would be mostly done, and you don't have any new capacity yet coming online on 2027. So yes, just wondering why am I missing on the 2027 where it seems from the building blocks, you can grow kind of more on -- deliver more incremental revenues versus what you're delivering in '26, where the bulk of the repricing is happening.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you. Lucas, there are 3 effects on '27.

There will be some marginal debottlenecking of existing capacity that will come online in '27, which will bring additional volume. There will be repricing across the board.

And so we will probably be almost done in terms of repricing everything to the best possible level. And there will be more share of the data center business inside our total optical business in [indiscernible].

Those are the 3 elements that will the EBITDA growth and the EBITDA margin announcement in '27.

Lucas Ferhani

Perfect. And on the EUR 1.1 billion incremental, is that assuming kind of 100% of capacity is used?

Or is that the visibility you already have from the frame agreement and so there could be upside to that EUR 1.1 billion if you kind of deliver on other contracts?

Massimo Battaini

Lucas, it's basically the same. We took commitment and [indiscernible] capacity or we raised our capacity to the level of the [indiscernible].

So they are same numbers, EUR 1.1 billion is additional revenues, EUR 1.1 billion is the additional capacity.

Lucas Ferhani

Perfect. And the last one was just on the free cash flow.

It's quite a strong upgrade there as well for the year. Very strong also conversion of EBITDA versus what we usually see.

Just can you help us a little bit on the building blocks here? Just many big down payments coming in transmission?

Or are there other things to mention for the higher free cash flow?

Massimo Battaini

I'd like to have Francesco giving you the main components of this bridge, EUR 1.350 billion, EUR 1.7 billion.

Pier Facchini

Yes. Thank you, Massimo.

Actually, it's quite simple. We have the positive components coming from the additional EBITDA, which is plus EUR 150 million versus the prior guidance.

Of course, you have to take out some tax effect from that. Then as I mentioned, we are increasingly improving our performance in terms of working capital, stock receivable, and this will contribute not a very different number from -- compared to the EBITDA incremental effect.

And substantially, these 2 elements -- these 2 positive elements will offset the negative metal impact versus what we had already embedded in the guidance that we quantify in the EUR 250 million. Then what is left are 2 elements, partly offsetting each other.

One is the big down payment coming from Molex, EUR 550 million, net of a strong acceleration on the CapEx that we quantify in the year of approximately EUR 200 million over the level of the CapEx, which was embedded in the guidance. And this is leading to the midpoint of EUR 1.7 billion, plus EUR 350 million.

I don't know if I've been clear on that.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Monica Bosio of Intesa Sanpaolo.

Monica Bosio

Yes. The first is on Power Grid, margins improved sequentially, but they are still a little bit far to the, I think, your target.

Do you expect -- can you give us an indication of what do you expect for Power Grid by year-end? Is it 15% margins really achievable?

And my second question is still on the down payments and the structure of the framework agreements. So the company received -- will receive EUR 550 million of down payment.

Should we expect further down payments from Molex or the next down payments will come from the additional and not yet identified framework agreements? And should we model the same, let's say, the same weight of down payments that you got from Molex?

And in addition to this, as the preform production activity is very energy intensive. I was curious about the structure of the cost within your framework agreement.

Are you planning a complete pass-through to the final customer to the hyperscalers?

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Monica. A very articulated question, let me start with Power Grid.

The only reason why the margins are slightly behind the record margin achieved 1 year ago is because we are in a cost inflationary situation, and we are allowed to pass all cost increase to the market with a time lag. And as long as the costs continue increasing, we will still suffer from this time lag.

Should the cost inflation end one day, we will catch up with the 15% EBITDA margin immediately. The whole point is that the real question is the market strong?

Because even if you had good cost price adjustment clauses, the market wasn't strong, prices will go backwards. So the market is super strong.

There's no pricing pressure in the market. New tenders will be made at a better price.

So this is, again, a temporary and sorry for saying this -- mentioning this is a temporary situation, which lasted that long but it's due to the inflation and the Iran War has a play into this. Don't be concerned.

The market is demanding more voltage, more cables, more capacity and the price is pretty sustained. So we will catch up as soon as inflation will ease in the coming quarters.

The down payment structure is such that we receive a down payment and as we start delivering revenues after a certain number of years, we'll have to return the money that we had in advance. And so in 2030, '31, we'll give back -- '32, '33, we will give back the vast majority of this down payment.

The structure of this deal is solid in the sense that addressing your third question, not only do we have formula to pass on the cost. We have guaranteed volume, we take-or-pay and guaranteed margin because we pass the cost immediately without suffering -- on the contrary to what I said before, in Power Grid from this time lag.

So in the given quarter, at the end of the quarter, the price will be adjusted based on the cost increase occurring in that quarter. So the margins in terms of dollars per fiber sold will be guaranteed throughout the period.

Hope this answers all your questions.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Alessandro Cecchini of Equita.

Alessandro Cecchini

The first one actually is on electrification. So -- you said that margins were down -- or I mean slightly up quarter-on-quarter, but due to LatAm.

Could you give us sort of feeling what are you seeing in the market now from the first half to the end of the year? So if you are seeing some impairment of business or just to give some flavor on this?

My second question is secondly on...

Operator

We have lost the line of the questioner. We will now move to the next question, while waiting for him to reconnect.

And our next question comes from the line of Nabil Najeeb of Deutsche Bank.

Nabil Najeeb

I just had one. Can you give us an update on the secondary listing in New York?

It looks like the plan is back on with work being started on it according to your comments to the press this morning. Do you have a time line in mind for the listing?

Massimo Battaini

It's still a crucial point, a valued project for us for value creation. Currently, we are very busy with a lot of stuff, so the deployment of this data center opportunity, the contracts, new waves of capacity increase, M&A.

So it will be remaining our priority, top one in the list and at an appropriate moment, we will disclose the timing of this operation.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Uma Samlin of Bank of America.

Uma Samlin

Two for me, please. So first question is on M&A.

I guess, you mentioned in the interview this morning, there are interesting M&A opportunities in the U.S. Would you be able to give us a bit more insight on what are the ideal type of business you find most exciting?

Does the deal with Molex change your thinking in terms of how interesting is connectivity business for you versus accessories? Maybe we can start from there.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Uma. Our approach to M&A hasn't changed.

Molex is a way to organically expand the capacity. It's a fast-growing opportunity for us in terms of incremental EBITDA.

We are still open to spaces or M&A in spaces adjacent to our cable business because we want to reinforce the revenues -- the share of revenues in the company that are solutions rather than just pure cables. And so U.S.

remains surely the best geography for those opportunities given the high profitability in the market, both in power, electrification and digital solutions space, but we're also looking at other regions. And I'm confident that the coming quarter will -- we will be able to disclose more, of course, at the proper timing at the signing of the projects.

Uma Samlin

That's super clear. My second question is on your capacity ramp-up for the fiber production.

So if I'm looking at the Slide 5 from the presentation, it's very helpful, that slide. So it seems like you're already planning to have some significant capacity increase by 2028.

Is that ahead of your schedule? And then how should we think about the phasing of your capacity expansion from there?

And then I guess, a follow-up also on the second -- you were talking about the second wave of deals that could be above EUR 10 billion. So how much more capacity would you be able to add on top of that 2x you have announced?

And what would be the time line there? So if you do sign those contracts, would that be on top of the EUR 1.1 billion revenues?

Massimo Battaini

Uma, yes, we will have the run rate capacity achieved by 2029 -- end of 2029. So part of the capacity increase will happen in '27 in Europe, the rest will happen in the United States, where we are planning to more than doubling the fiber capacity location in U.S.

So by '29, there will be this more than doubling. In 2028 it will be -- the first chunk of this more than doubling U.S.

capacity, let's say, 1/3, 40% of the run rate capacity will be already implemented by 2028. If we went for new deals, this will require additional capacity.

We are not thinking to go too wide in terms of extra capacity, but the demand from different players and the usual hyperscalers customers is still unsatisfied. And we will, for sure, sign other deals, and this will bring the incremental revenues incrementally over the EUR 1.1 billion yearly revenue added by 2031 or 2030 of the existing deals.

Operator

We will now take our next question from the line of Alessandro Tortora of Mediobanca.

Alessandro Tortora

Yes. I have three questions.

Okay, if I may. The first one, let's say, relates to the transmission business.

If you can, let's say, give us an update on the, let's say, second half outlook in terms of tender or award, if you expect any acceleration on this one? The second question is on, let's say, I understood your comment on free cash flow, if you can help us also to reconnect a little bit with the, let's say, outlook on deleverage, year-end leverage, considering also the incremental CapEx?

And on the factor you mentioned before on the upfront payment? And the last one is, let's say, just a small curiosity.

You mentioned the hollow core fiber with, let's say, this innovative solution that you are -- basically under development from a commercial standpoint, industrial standpoint. Can you give us an update on this, if you see, let's say, in a kind of a short period of time, 5 years of time, if you see, let's say, any update and that this solution can be commercialized with your existing, let's say, data center clients?

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Alessandro. As far as transmission is concerned, the second half should be a bit more buoyant than first half.

In first half, we won what was available from the market. Our backlog is still pretty high, EUR 17 billion.

The demand -- overall demand in '26, we estimate around EUR 10 billion in new projects awarded to the market, and we expect to see this level be beaten in '27, '28 because there are projects in the pipelines that we -- in '27, '28. I'd like to defer to Francesco, the free cash flow connection to the deleverage at the end of the year.

Pier Facchini

Thank you, Massimo. Based on this update of the free cash flow guidance, we estimate that the year-end net debt will be in the region of EUR 2.3 billion/EUR 2.4 billion, which means a quite outstanding improvement versus our original expectation.

And actually, in terms of leverage, if you take the updated EBITDA guidance means a leverage of around 0.8x. So a very low leverage.

Massimo Battaini

Thank you, Francesco. As far as the hollow core fiber is concerned, we completed, let me say, industrialization phase.

Last week, we were in the U.S., and we handed over this cable, not just the fiber, the fiber in cables to Amazon for an installation trial, installation test that we passed successfully. They tried to break this cable in all possible way.

They could not do it, they could not achieve it. So we passed the test.

We are now able to scale production to a different level. The demand is high.

The level of margins is extremely interesting. It's all about how fast we can scale this up to a more mass production level.

It will never be a solution that accounts for more than 10% of the fiber market demand, but it will be pretty profitable from this perspective.

Alessandro Tortora

Understood. And just if I may, a quick follow-up on this.

I recall that you have, let's say, this agreement or you invested into the Relativity Networks company. You're currently a shareholder of this company.

Assuming that you're going to start commercializing this solution. Do you expect it to do also a step up in terms of ownership into the Relativity Networks?

Massimo Battaini

Yes, good question. We are discussing this as we speak.

It's probably too early stage to make a decision. We want to wait and see what happens in the second half in [the market].

The ball is in our field. We have to speed up the industrialization and additional capacity.

You know that currently, we are producing this in Europe. The ideal place for the rollout of extra capacity will be Claremont, North Carolina, United States, where this demand is located.

And probably towards the end of this year, we will evaluate additional ownership or additional opportunity with Relativity Network in terms of stake in the company.

Operator

I'd now like to invite Alessandro Cecchini of Equita for his questions.

Alessandro Cecchini

Can you hear me?

Massimo Battaini

Yes.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. Perfect.

I repeat maybe my question.

Massimo Battaini

First question we got. Move to the second and we answer both.

Alessandro Cecchini

Okay. Okay.

So my last one was -- I don't know because the line was down about the European opportunities in terms of margins electrification. So if you can elaborate a little bit more on this.

If you have plans to restructure or to improve margins in the region. So I don't know if you answered this question.

Massimo Battaini

Yes. So the first question was about the market development in other regions.

In LatAm, we had -- we're going through a normalization. LatAm we had this spike in margins in the last 2 years in Argentina due to the country situation and in Colombia, and now, we suffer from normalization, normal things like this.

So things like this happen. Nothing extremely relevant.

But, of course, LatAm weighed a lot in terms of overall profitability because their profitability is pretty close to that of United States. Europe, partly to answer your second question, is mildly growing in terms of volume growth and in terms of profitability.

We have plans to strengthen the growth through things that we cannot probably disclose too much. There will be some restructuring, some additional capacity relocations.

So there will be some re-footprinting in Europe, mild re-footprinting, but will help us strengthen our position in Europe and also become more efficient in serving customers in a way similar to what we do in U.S. with Encore Wire.

So this is more or less the essence of what we have in mind for the European margin enhancement.

Operator

We have no further questions. I'll now turn the conference back to the room for closing comments.

Massimo Battaini

So thank you very much, everyone, for your time. I hope you enjoyed the call, and hope you will be also enjoying your holiday in the coming weeks.

Thank you, and see you soon.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program.

You may now disconnect.