Naureen Quayum
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to True Corporation's earnings disclosure for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025.
My name is Naureen. I'm the Head of Investor Relations.
With us today are our Group CEO, Khun Sigve, and our Co-CFO, Khun Nakul. I would also like to welcome all the analysts who have joined us in the room today and to those of you who are joining us online.
Our presentation today is going to be a bit different. We will have the first segment, which will focus on the results of the fourth quarter and the full year, and we will have the second segment, which will focus on the strategy and the mid-to-long-term guidance that we have provided.
All our presentations are available for download on our website. We will take Q&A at the end of the presentation.
For those of you who are online, please raise your hand or drop your questions in the comment box. We will do a mix of questions from the room and questions online.
With that, I now welcome Khun Sigve to start our presentation.
Sigve Brekke
Sorry. Thanks, Naureen, and good morning to all of you, our Asian colleagues, and good afternoon or whatever to the rest of the world.
Good to see also several of the analysts being present here in the room. Let me take one look back before we go forward, and I'm taking a look back on 2025 and some key highlights from that year.
First, 2025 was the year where we became profitable. We reported a net profit after tax for the first time in Q1 last year and continued to be profitable company ever since.
More importantly, we declare our first dividend since the amalgamation in Q3 2025, reinforcing our commitment to disciplined capital allocation and shareholder return. Secondly, we also last year achieved a significant milestone on our network.
We completed our One Network integration successfully and actually ahead of plan. With the acquisition of the 2.3 GHz and the 1,500 MHz, we now have the biggest spectrum portfolio in the market, which puts us in a very good position to deliver best network experience going forward.
Thirdly, customers remained at the core of everything we do. We had some challenges during the year, being the earthquake, being flood, being border situation, and also being the network outage that we had.
Throughout that, we kept the relationship with our customers. We also unified ex-dtac customers and ex-True customers into a one digital-first platform, delivering a seamless and consistent experience through the new True app, where our customers then could get the first digital platform experience.
Finally, we also started to see in the fourth quarter signs of growth momentum returning. I said when we had our third quarter presentation that we are bottoming out and returning back to growth, and that was exactly what happened in the fourth quarter.
Mobile service revenue increased quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA continued to expand.
This reflects a shift towards a healthier, more sustainable growth, with customers firmly at the core. These milestones represent what I called a shift from integration that we have done the last three years to a disciplined execution and a sustainable performance going forward.
I'm going to talk more about that, but first, let me ask Khun Nakul to go through some of the financials from the quarter. Please, Nakul.
Nakul Sehgal
Thank you so much, Khun Sigve. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone.
Let me walk you through the financial highlights of Q4 2025 and full year of 2025. First, as far as the service revenue is concerned, on a normalized basis, excluding the impact of the decline in domestic roaming, we are delivering a -0.2% year-on-year for Q4 and a flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
For the full year, we are -0.2%, a shade lower than the guidance that we had given to the capital markets. As far as the EBITDA is concerned, a 10.3% growth on an year-on-year basis and a 3.2% on a Q-on-Q, with the full year being 7% growth.
The net profit after tax, ฿4 billion of reported profits, 2.5x of what you saw in the previous quarter. At the same time, normalized profit was ฿6.1 billion, with the full-year reported profit being ฿9.2 billion.
As Khun Sigve said, fourth consecutive quarter of profit for the company. The leverage continues to decline.
It's a -0.2x on an year-on-year and also on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Even here, we meet or slightly exceed the guidance that we had given to the capital markets.
We do also announce a final dividend for the year at about ฿4.1 billion, which is 12 satang. With this, the FY 2025 payout is 56% of our normalized profits.
Then if I go into the financial numbers in a little bit more detail, as far as the service revenue for Q4 is concerned, even though it's declined 1% on an year-on-year basis, that's primarily on account of domestic roaming and Pay TV. On a normalized basis, it remained flat on a Q-on-Q and declined on a -0.2% on an year-on-year basis.
The full-year service revenue declined due to lower contribution from mobile as well as the Pay TV segments, and I'll explain that in the second graph that you see in the middle. If you look at the waterfall from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 and also for the full year 2024 to full year 2025, the two businesses that have declined is basically mobile and Pay TV, whereas there is growth registered in online.
The decline in the mobile business is primarily on account of domestic roaming, while the underlying core mobile business has grown. As far as the total revenue is concerned, first, if you can see the product sales for Q4 2025 has increased approximately 37% due to launch of the iPhone.
This is where you see the numbers clearly indicating that that increase, ฿4.2 billion has gone up to ฿5.8 billion. Then also as far as the full year is concerned, the decline of 5% that you see is primarily on account of the reduction in the network rental revenue, which is as expected, expiration of the spectrum rental arrangement that we had with NT, and that's the reason why there is a decline.
Other than that, it's stable. Then if I move on to the different businesses, first, the mobile business, let me first walk you through the middle section, which is the subscriber growth.
As Khun Sigve mentioned, we had kind of promised in Q3 that we're going to back we're going to be back to growth in this business, and as a consequence, we are pleased to report a 580,000 net adds positive in this quarter, 100,000 coming from postpaid and about 480,000 coming from prepaid. The growth in postpaid is basically on account of B2B.
With the growth in the subscribers and also an improvement in the ARPU, as you can see on the extreme right, the ARPU in the prepaid space has improved 2.6% Q-on-Q. Full year is approximately 10%.
Also as far as the postpaid business is concerned, it's a slight improvement, 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. That's primarily because of the seasonal roaming revenues.
As a consequence, the Q-on-Q and year-on-year blended ARPU has shown a good increase, reaching at ฿225, which is a 4.5% increase year-on-year. The revenue development is a function of the subscriber and ARPU, and as a consequence, you can see Q-on-Q, the mobile business has grown 1.2%, and the full year and the and the growth normalized for the roaming is about 1.4%.
That's where we are saying that we are back to growth as far as this business is concerned. Then let me move on to online.
We register a 1.5% growth year-on-year in online revenues, which is basically driven by the growth in subscribers. If you see the number of subscribers, we report a 32,000 net adds positive in this quarter, but the subscriber number will be a little bit of surprise to you, and let me address that question up front.
What we've done is we've actually revised how we report the subscribers on the broadband space, where we've done two adjustments. Number one, we've excluded B2B broadband subscribers here because that was skewing the ARPU very differently because B2B ARPU is much higher because of the corporate solutions.
The second, we had historically double-counted certain subscribers who are using a fixed-line phone and also using a broadband connection. Over a period of time, these fixed-line subscribers don't really pay for the fixed-line phone anymore, so that's why we thought it was more appropriate to show a normalized view of the subscribers, and hence, you see a 3.3 million subs, which is increasing 32,000 on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
ARPU has more or less remained flat, and as a consequence, you see on the left-hand side, the subscription revenue has marginally improved 0.8% Q-on-Q. The full revenue, including B2B, has declined 1.9%, but that's as we had mentioned earlier, it's because of the one-time revenues on some corporate solutions that we had in Q3.
Full year is a growth of 2.2%. Then I move on to Pay TV.
Pay TV, as Q3 was a was a quarter where we had reported some exceptional revenues, which was basically on account of music and entertainment. These are seasonal in nature and, come, once in a while at different times of the year.
Even though on a reported basis, you see a 14.3% decline year-on-year and a 24.4% on a quarter-on-quarter, the majority of the decline is because of the lower seasonal concerts in Q4 as compared to Q3. As far as the subscriber is concerned, the trend is continuing from what you had seen in the past.
It's roughly about a 4% decline, and the ARPU is more or less stable from Q3 and Q4. The other reason for the big reduction on a subscription revenues is you're all aware it's because of EPL not being in our portfolio anymore.
Let me once again reiterate: losing EPL is net positive for us as a business, even though what we are trying to do is the net savings from EPL is being rechanneled into other content that we want to do to retain our customers. Then let me move on to the OPEX picture.
There is a 28.8% year-on-year decline in OPEX, which is benefited by acquisition of spectrum and also on the synergies. First, the regulatory cost, as you're all aware, has increased 12.6% on an year-on-year basis, which is basically on account of the full-year effect on the rate, which is because of the expiry of spectrum, more of this effect is going to come in 2026.
As far as the network cost is concerned, it declined 27.5% year-on-year and also 9.2% Q-on-Q, which is benefited by two things. One is because of the acquisition of spectrum, because certain costs are not booked now, they are actually booked below the line even though they are much smaller.
The second is on account of the network modernization that has taken place, wherein we have reduced approximately 18,000 sites. The cost of sales have declined 4% year-on-year, but they've increased 33.7% in tandem with the increase in the sales of the handsets as well, this should be looked at jointly.
We have eliminated the spectrum rental cost, and of course, this is due to the expiry of the spectrum rental arrangement. As you can see from the left-hand side of the chart, ฿1.9 billion cost in Q3 2025 is not there anymore in Q4 of 2025.
The other cost of providing services has declined 8.4%, mainly driven by the net savings from EPL, but of course, there are many items that are actually that are actually considered here. As a consequence, the total OPEX has declined roughly 28.8% year-on-year and a 3.4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
Then let me move on to the profitability metrics. We report a 10.3% increase in the EBITDA on a year-on-year basis, which is driven by benefit from spectrum and also on the synergies.
Q-on-Q, as mentioned earlier, is also a 3.2% growth. Full year, at a 7% growth, we are actually at the lower range lower end of the guidance that we had communicated to the capital markets.
What may be a positive surprise to some of you, we report a very healthy EBITDA margin to service revenue, which currently stands at 67.5% for Q4. For the full year, it's 63.7%.
Another thing that we are quite proud of is since amalgamation, True Corporation has improved the EBITDA by ฿8.4 billion, which is 43% since amalgamation. Then as far as net profit is concerned, the reported profit in Q4 is ฿4 billion, which is increasing about 2.5x from ฿1.6 billion in Q3.
As far as the normalized profit is concerned, we report a ฿6.1 billion. Basically, there are roughly about ฿2.1 billion of normalizations, and let me just walk you through those normalizations briefly, because I'm sure you'll have some questions on that.
First normalization that we've done, an annual impairment exercise has been carried out for the significant investments that we have in the company, and for which we have recorded a ฿2.4 billion, impairment. Second, the usual suspect that you see every quarter, because we have been doing a network modernization, the redundant assets that are not to be used pursuing the network modernization have been written off, that's about ฿1.2 billion.
Then at the same time, we've recorded an annual impairment of half a billion on account of goodwill for the TV business. Number four, we've recorded a gain, which is a deferred tax asset that is that has been recorded on the losses of the company of about ฿1.5 billion, and also unrealized loss on forward contracts, totaling about ฿1.8 billion.
This has been recorded as a gain in in this quarter. The reason why the deferred tax asset has been recorded is because now we are reporting a full year of profit, so that's why it is an opportune time for us to record the DTA.
Last but not the least, we also have a gain of half a billion from our investment in associates, which is basically the revaluation of assets at DIF, an annual exercise, as you already know. Another thing that we are quite proud of is the financial cost has actually decreased 4% on an year-on-year basis, and also the D&A has slightly increased 1.7% year-on-year due to acquisition of the new spectrum.
As far as the CAPEX is concerned, we report roughly ฿11.5 billion CAPEX in Q4, with the full year being about ฿31.2 billion at CAPEX to sales of about 17%, a shade higher than what we had guided to the capital markets. The reason why the CAPEX is slightly higher is because we have accelerated investment into the broadband network, an area that we had told you many a times in the past that we have been underinvesting in that area, we want to resurrect that.
That's the reason for the ฿1 billion increase as compared to what we had mentioned earlier. I will tell you the long-term projections on CAPEX to sales, at the end of the presentation.
Then on the leverage, from a 4.2x Q3 2025 of leverage, we down to 4.0x. Actually, we had mentioned that we're going to be less than 4.1x, we are actually less than 4.1x at about 4.0x on the leverage.
The good story that you continue to see is the effective interest rate on our borrowings, from 4.1%, now we are down to 3.8%. The The net debt has decreased Q-on-Q, basically on account of the disciplined cash flow management that you've seen over the last 12, 13 quarters, and also reduced gross borrowings.
The lease liabilities have actually increased year-on-year, basically on account of the transfer of assets to DIF and accounting adjustment that we've been explaining to you since the last couple of quarters. We've also issued debentures of about ฿16 billion at 2.88% weighted average rate, which continues to reduce on a on every round of borrowing that we do, and at the same time, the tenor of the borrowing also increases.
This actually heavily shows our effective debt management. We've refinanced ฿126 billion during the year 2024, ฿113 billion in 2025, and what we need to refinance in 2026 is actually only ฿66 billion, which shows that now it's, getting more and more easier for us to manage our our debt portfolio.
Then just to give you a perspective of 2024 versus 2025, on the left, you have the total revenues, but I also want to indicate that even though there is a 5% reduction in total revenues, that reduction is mainly on account of the spectrum rental going away pursuant to the, spectrum arrangement that has expired. It is net positive to the EBITDA as well as to the net income, as you're already aware.
The service revenue is a -0.2% year-on-year, normalized for the effect in the NT roaming. The total OPEX, as you have seen, is reducing about 16% on an year-on-year basis from 2024 to 2025, and as a consequence, the EBITDA has improved 7%.
The net profit after tax is about ฿9.4 billion for the full year, which is increasing ฿20.2 billion since 2024. Then just to give you a perspective on what we had guided to the capital markets and what we have achieved: we had guided a flat to 1% growth in service revenues.
We are a shade lower to that at a -0.2%, as I have just explained. Even with a flat to 1% growth in the revenues, we had guided a 7% to 8% growth in EBITDA, and happy to announce that we meet that guidance at about 7% growth.
CAPEX, we had indicated at about ฿30 billion. We end the year at about ฿31 billion.
Last but not the least, we had said that we're going to be profitable on a reported basis for the year, and we are profitable since Q1 of 2025. I will end this section of the presentation by talking about the dividend for Q4.
At about ฿4.1 billion, this is about 12 satang as final dividend. The The record date is going to be 11th of May, with the payout being on 26th of May, of course, subject to the approval of the shareholders.
The total dividend for the year is about 31 satang, which is at a 116% payout ratio on the reported profits. As we have explained to you, on the reported profits is always going to be higher because of the lot of one-offs that we have in the last one year.
Therefore, on the normalized profit, the payout ratio is about 56%. The total dividend is roughly ฿10.7 billion for the full year.
With this, I pass it on to Khun Sigve to walk you through the big moves for the next three years.
Sigve Brekke
Bear bear with me. Sorry, bear with me now for some slides, because we are now going to look into the next three years, and you are more than welcome to ask question about Q4 also in the end.
I'm going to give you some perspectives on both how we see the industry, but also what we plan to do ourselves. As the headline of this slide, we feel that after three years of amalgamation and synergy focus, we have now built a solid fundament to move forward, and that's what this story is going to be about.
The first fundament that is in place, it's our network. We have seen a significant improvement after we consolidated the network into one.
We have now reached 94% 5G population coverage. We have increased the 5G speed with 23%.
With this improvements, we now see that our Net Promoter Score has improved by approximately 28% year-on-year. The other fundament that is in place that we see an improvement in our customer interaction.
Customer complaints are significantly down, and customers are now changing to digital interaction with us, with a higher customer satisfaction. Churn, both on postpaid and on prepaid and on the online business, it is also significantly down, and this comes from a focus on quality acquisitions.
As a result of this improvements, we are now back to growth, with also a positive subscriber net adds, as we showed. We have also made significant progress since amalgamation around our our organization.
Our organizational efficiency has improved approximately 45%, supported by a flatter structure and early gains from also automation and use of AI. Looking ahead then into 2026 and and 2028, and let me start with how we see the industry landscape.
The industry landscape is evolving, and we want to be an agile part of building our strategy around those changes. The external environment continues to be supportive for long-term digital growth.
Thailand's digital economy is actually growing much faster than the the GDP as such, with a 6.2% year-on-year growth. The digital economy in Thailand is expected to account for around 30% of the GDP by 2027.
At the same time, AI adoption is accelerating very rapidly, with growth estimate estimated of 4x compared with the level we saw in 2024. It's in this picture we want to position ourselves for this digital future with significant growth opportunities.
To do that, we need to prepare ourselves for the industry shifts. An important part of this is to acknowledge that our customers' expectations are changing and evolving beyond only delivering network performance and traditional customer acquisition.
Let me go through the three main shifts that that we see in the industry and that we are preparing ourselves for. First, best network experience is now a basic expectation.
It's a hygiene factor, not a differentiator. Customers increasingly value a seamless and end-to-end customer experience across digital channels, service interactions, and also various touchpoints.
It's a shift from focusing on delivering a network experience alone to a end-to-end seamless customer experience. In parallel with that, when the overall telco market now is reaching maturity, with a total subscriber growth approaching its peak, as a result of that, we need to shift, and our focus need to shift from a subscriber-led focus, which we have had for 25 years, into an ARPU and also an ARPA-led value creation.
You will hear more about that a little bit later. This shift also requires a change in how we go to the market.
We are moving from a mass market product approach in our marketing and our sales efforts, where we basically had a one-size-fit-all offering, to now a hybrid, hyper-personalized, and a much, much more granular execution model, enabled with all the data we have from our customers, but also from our network. This evolution from a traditional way of running a telco operation that we have done for 25 years to a more telco tech model underpins the strategy we have for the coming three years.
It allows us now to combine the strength of our scale with the agility required to win in the next phase of the growth. As a result of this, you will hear me talking about these four big moves in the coming quarters.
We have concentrated our strategy around these four big moves: it's a growth move, it's an experience move, it's an AI move, and it's a people move. Let me go through each each of the four to explain a little bit more in detail.
Our first move is on customer experience, because as I said, experience is now the primary way to differentiate yourself in the industry. On mobile, our key focus will be on delivering the best 5G network, the best 5G speed, and the best 5G consistency.
We are now fully leveraging our leading spectrum portfolio across the 2.3 GHz spectrum we have, the 2.6 GHz spectrum we have, and also selectively on our 1,500 MHz spectrum. We are also refarming our 2.6 GHz spectrum now to free up more capacity both for for 4G and 5G.
Such improvements will significantly help us to increase 5G penetration with our customers. For TrueOnline, we are revamping the entire customer experience.
This includes a network experience, and we are investing in the online network. It includes simplifying our customer journeys, and we expect this efforts to enable us to reduce churn further in our online business, and in addition to that, take our fair share of the online market growth that we that we still see exist in this in this market.
In parallel with that, we will continue to modernize our IT systems for greater simplification and a better performance. This includes simplifying our IT architecture through system consolidation.
I'm talking about system consolidation on billing platforms, on CRM platforms, and and IT customer front platforms. It includes upgrade key system to improve performance and reliability.
It also includes enabling what we call touch-free operations for faster issue resolutions. Finally, we will also focus on delivering a seamless digital-first experience, where customers can interact with us constantly across digital channels, shop, and call centers.
This includes enhance the True digital True app with more features to be at service parity with the service you get when you walk into a shop or when you call a call center, to move those physical interaction into digital interaction. It includes leverage AI to provide personalized experiences and issue resolutions, as well as human-like conversational AI agents.
Our second big move is on growth, and let me start with consumer. The growth we are pursuing on the consumer side is very different from the growth we have done in the past, and let me explain what the difference is.
We are shifting from selling individual products, basically SIM cards, voice, and then data, into now winning the entire household through a "more for more" concept. Most of our customers have only one product with True, the first step is to have them to use our connectivity services both on the go, as they do on mobile, but also when they are at home through a better convergence offering.
However, it's more than convergence. We don't want to stop there.
We also want to provide our customers with relevant add-on services that addresses the entire needs that they have in the various customer segments, that being games, that being content, that being home AI solutions, or other digital services, both to drive customer stickiness and to drive value creation. To do that successfully, we need to be smart in how we approach our customers.
We will already leverage data and AI engine to create personalized offers for each customers, we can cross-sell relevant services to right person at the right moment and through the most appropriate channel. When we do that, we see that a customer churn when a customer are using more than one product with us is going significantly down, and we see the ARPU or the value creation going up.
In our TV and content business, investments in original contents is our primary prime differentiator after we we moved out of of the EPL, allowing us to drive engagement across various segments of customers, not only the TV, but also on the mobile and on online business. In 2026, we will aggressively scale up our production to more than 30 Thai original content series and partner up with 20 leading studios.
With a library already exceeding 500 titles, we are we claim that we own the cultural conversation in Thailand. This content just doesn't only drive viewership, it anchors our data ecosystem and fuels our core connectivity businesses through various engagement activities, offerings, and privileges across the TV products and across the mobile business and across the online business.
Customer and network data allow us to move to much more granular operating model, and this is a big shift in the way we are going to do our business. Let me explain explain what I mean by a granular execution model.
We want to shift from a traditional area management into a nano-cluster execution model, where we are breaking up the country in more than 6,600 small areas, clusters, and have an execution model around those 6,600. There are three main elements in that strategy: the first one, it's a data-led and local insight.
We are using the data we have from our networks, from our point of sales, from our customers, and we leverage that deep local customer knowledge and network insights in actually making P&L per cluster to drive performance management. To do that, we need to empower local teams.
We are going to assign clear nano-cluster ownership with our people, with our teams, and them to be dedicated to drive then faster decisions and stronger accountabilities on the ground. The last thing in this area is to target execution on each and one of those nano-cluster areas, to deploy highly targeted local plans per nano-cluster, precision campaigning, and optimized network utilization, where we are filling up the network where we have a spare capacity and we're taking down capacity where we have full capacity.
That's going to be almost base station by base station. Our next focus area on the growth big move is on the enterprise and SMEs.
We are deliberately now shifting our focus on the SME and the and the enterprise market from being today mainly a connectivity provider to becoming a trusted digital transformation partner. Today, our B2B business accounts for around 6% 7% 8% of our overall service revenues.
If I compare that with regional benchmarks, it should be closer to 15% of our overall overall business overall revenues. We see this gap as a clear opportunity to grow by moving beyond standalone connectivity and into higher-value digital solutions.
Customers in both enterprise and SME segments are no longer looking for only network connectivity. They are looking for integrated solutions that can combine connectivity, cloud, security, data, and AI to solve real business problems.
That's where we see the growth coming in in the B2B segment. Our approach is going to be focused and and different.
For SMEs, we want to make digital transformation simple: platform services, accessible, and through subscription-based as-a-service offerings. For enterprises, we want to co-create industry-specific solutions that are tailor-made to our enterprise customers' needs.
To do that, we need partnerships. We don't want to do all those servicing services and products alone.
We want to do it in partnership. For example, we are closely working together with True IDC, our data center provider.
We are working closely together with hyperscalers, being the Western hyperscalers, but also the Chinese hyperscalers, to strengthen our data center and sovereign cloud capabilities. That will allow us to meet growing requirements both in data residency, security, and regulatory compliance, especially for those customers that increasingly are asking for more trusted, locally hosted infrastructure solutions.
By combining our network strength, our digital platforms, and our strategic partnerships, we want to build a scalable and capability to to be a leader in the B2B segment. Then let me move to the third big move: AI.
We have already started, of course, to use AI in our business. Couple of examples on that: on the customer side, our conventional our conversational AI, Mari, Mary, as we call her, now offloads 96% of all messaging transactions that has been delivered, and more than 45% of all the transactions is now happening through the AI tool compared with 2023.
On the network side, AI-driven energy optimization has delivered already 367 370 million in savings since 2023 through using AI to identify low-risk, high-impact cell sites and employing intelligent sleep-and-wake automation in the network. We are also now working on customer value management.
We're doing that together with some global consultancy help and also with some global AI players. We are building a hyper-personalized AI engine, powered by a unified customer data platform, where we are using more than 15 billion data points to reflect the true context of our customers.
We are then using those 15 billion data points to understand their behaviors and preferences. We already see an ARPU effect, positive ARPU effect, coming out from this initiatives, but we have just started.
Moving forward, we have established three key priorities on AI: the first one, it's AI for all. We want to democratize AI by upskilling our own people, but also our customers, accelerate the adoption, and ensure responsible, authentic AI across the organization.
We want to use AI as a growth engine, and I already mentioned as an example with using AI for hyper-personalized offers. We want to use AI to power operation.
We are building now autonomous, touch-free operations to improve efficiency and use that to scale performance. Our fourth and last big moves is on people, because none of what I'm talking about now is possible without the right capabilities, cultures, and way of working.
Organizational excellence, we will continue. We have done a lot of organizational efficiency already, and I talked about that earlier.
We want to continue to modernize our organization to improve efficiency and improve productivity through using digital tools and process automation. AI and simplification are going to be cornerstones in this multi-year organizational efficiency program.
Future-ready capabilities: AI capabilities become a core skill set. We are rolling now out a structured AI upskilling project and scholarships to ensure that all our employees can innovate and apply AI responsibly in their role.
The ambition is that 100% of our employees will have necessary AI skills. Last but not least, performance-driven culture: we are now fostering a systematic performance-driven culture, combined with innovation, to be able to both deliver on the financial ambition we have, but also to become the best place to work.
Ultimately, these moves will help us to create an organization that is more agile, more capable, and better at executing in this three-year strategy. Let me close off with a slide on efficiency and what we plan to do to actually to deliver the profitability focus that Khun Nakul is going to talk about now in a second.
Over the past two years, we have fundamentally reshaped our cost structure, driven by disciplined execution and full synergy realization. From 2023 to 2025, two years, our OPEX have reduced with 12%, driven by a 3% CAGR reduction in our revenue-generating OPEX.
We are now splitting our OPEX in revenue-generating and non-revenue-generating. So 3% reduction on the revenue-generating OPEX and a 13% reduction in the non-revenue-generating OPEX.
This reduction of cost was mainly driven by organizational synergies, performance-based culture, and and benefits, of course, from the spectrum acquisition. Going forward, we will continue our focus on efficiency, leveraging on AI and synergies from scalability.
Let me give some examples of what we are going to do. Over the past years, last two years, we have made significant network movements in making our network more autonomous, but we are still not there.
The plan is to do to run the entire network in in autonomous model. This means smarter traffic steering, energy saving solutions, and capabilities to reduce manual intervention in our network.
We are simplifying our IT stacks by retiring legacy, moving to more modular architecture, and standardizing the data pipelines while integration of AI can operate also our IT infrastructure at scale. This will lead us to automate all the workflows end-to-end and accelerate time to market and also enable analytics in every decisions made based on machines, not on human interactions.
Our strategy on experience, it's a digital-first by design. We are empowering key steps in our customer journey by personalizing them with AI.
Customers see fewer forms, faster resolution, and offers that are relevant to their context, wherever they comes through the app, web, or contact center. To sustain momentum, we are transforming how we work.
Teams are being upskilled on AI, empowered with automation tools, and measured by speed and outcomes. This cultural shift of tech plus talent is what turns today's efficiency into tomorrow's growth strategy.
To then summarize, the 2025 marked a transition from, as I said, integration into execution for the three coming years. We are done with the integration, more or less done with integration.
We are done with amalgamation. We are done with putting those two organizations together.
Now for the coming three years, our focus is going to be on transforming the business to an execution. We enter 2026 then on a strong network foundation, improved customer metrics, a disciplined financial management, and a clear growth engine across customer, enterprise, and AI-led transformation.
With the focus we have now on experience, growth, AI, and people, I think we are well equipped to deliver on the guidance that Khun Nakul is now going through, both for for the three years and for 2026. Thank you.
Hand over to you, Nakul.
Nakul Sehgal
Thank you so much, Khun Sigve. Then I just have a couple of slides to walk you through the financial outlook for 2026 to 2028, and also deep diving a little bit on 2026 itself.
As you're aware, the EBITDA to service revenue, and I'm talking about the left to right, the purple bar that you see or the purple line that you see, we were at 54% in 2023, and we had a commitment to you as capital markets to reach 63% by 2025. Right now, as we finish 2025, as you're already aware, we are at 64%, with Q4 2025 being 67.5%.
We now show you the ambition for the period 2026 as well as until 2028 to reach up to 69% of EBITDA as a percentage to service revenue, which is a whopping 15 percentage point improvement since amalgamation. Focus, as usual, is going to be on the performance-driven culture as we continue to unlock the next phase of growth and also efficiency at the same time, with the core principle based on which we have always been working is the EBITDA growing faster than revenue.
In year 2026, you're already aware the spectrum savings are also going to play an important part, which has already been factored in these numbers. The second is on the CAPEX to sales.
You have seen that we have spoken about reduced CAPEX intensity over a period. The network modernization is behind us now.
We're sitting on a 5G network which is at 94% population coverage. As a consequence, even though the year 2025 the CAPEX to sales is a shade higher than what we had told you, and the reason is what we have already mentioned is investment into the broadband business, this is going to continue to taper down as we go forward, with approximately 13% to 14% until the year 2028, with 2026 in specific being roughly 14%.
The disciplined CAPEX management that we have spoken about is going to be the bedrock of how we invest into the business. Last but not the least is on the leverage.
Let me first remind you, this is something that we are really proud of: we were 5.7x leverage on Q1 of 2023. We ended the year 2023 at about 5.2.
We had an ambition to be lower than 4.1 by year 2025. We ended at about 4.0x.
Now we continue to say that we will be improving the leverage going forward, reaching approximately 3.5 levels by 2026 and approximately 3.0x levels by the year 2028. This is going to be followed by disciplined CAPEX management, efficiency focus, and also how we are going to improve the cash flows as we go forward, as we've demonstrated in the past.
I must remind you, 2026 as an year is going to be benefited significantly by the spectrum payments being much lower as compared to what was there in 2025. Roughly ฿24 billion of savings in 2026 alone is going to come from spectrum.
I think most of you have already factored these in your numbers, but I just wanted to reiterate that for the rest of the audience. With this leverage, we've also considered a dividend of 70% of the consolidated net profit of the company.
Then deep diving a little bit more into 2026: the service revenue, excluding interconnect, is expected to grow 2% to 3% for the year 2026, which is higher than the expected growth in GDP from the Bank of Thailand of about 1.5%. The growth is on the fundamentals of the following, a lot of it has been explained by Khun Sigve, but there should be an ARPU growth in mobile, a subscriber growth in online.
Growth in digital TV or media should be offsetting the degrowth that we have seen as a decline in Pay TV. Last but not the least, we expect a higher contribution from B2B, ambitions have already been shared by Khun Sigve already.
The continuous EBITDA focus is going to be there for 2026 as well, with EBITDA growth outpacing the growth in service revenue of about 7% to 9%, and efficiency is, like I mentioned, is on the core of the DNA of this company. The CAPEX is going to be tapered down.
We ended the year 2025, as you recall, at about ฿31 billion, with roughly 30%, 35% of the spends happening on network modernization. As a consequence, now for the year 2026, we are guiding CAPEX levels to about ฿25 billion to ฿27 billion.
Reiterate the dividend, which is going to be a semiannual dividend consideration of at least 70% of the consolidated net profit. Of course, this is subject to the approval of the Board of Directors.
With this, then I hand over to Khun Naureen to take over through the Q&A. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Sigve, Khun Nakul. We can start with the questions from the room first.
Khun Pisut.
Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Hello, [krub?] .
Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations again on your record net profit this quarter. Pisut from Kasikorn Securities.
I have two questions for this round. First, on the spectrum and network: If excluding the 1,500 MHz band, True still holds a spectrum advantage over AIS, if I'm correct, and you have completed the network modernization over the past three years.
Is it fair to conclude that this allow True to structurally lower network CAPEX, while competitors, AIS to be precise, may need to step up the spending as you may see? With that in mind, can True not only defend the cellular revenue market share, but potentially regain some shares in the coming quarter that you lost over the last one to two years?
Another question on this one is, how can you monetize the 1,500 MHz band so far? Have you seen any issues about the device compatibility in the market on this one?
Thank you,
Sigve Brekke
[krub?] .
I can start here. Yes, you are correct.
We have a spectrum advantage. I don't see that we have any problem now with delivering neither 5G or 4G increased capacity to the customers.
I don't want to comment on AIS, but for our sake, we can fully leverage that and also then to refarm the 2.6 that we are sitting on so that we can free up additional capacity. That is our plan.
The CAPEX we are talking about for ourselves now for 2026, it's roughly around 50%, 55%, I think, going into network, because we need to invest now in utilizing the 10 MHz extra we have on the 2.3, the 10 MHz extra we got in the auction, and also the 1,500. We are going to now use 1,500 to expand coverage.
To your question about do we see any limitations, not really, because all the new handsets now are coming with 1,500 also embedded in them. There is a significant number of existing customers that have 1,500.
The other part of our CAPEX for this year is going to be on online. We have not prioritized that in the past, now we started to do that in the fourth quarter, now we're going to put more money into online.
Expect 20 percentage part of our CAPEX going to online. The last part of it is going to IT and some other investments.
IT, we need to continue to, what should I call it, simplify our IT infrastructure. We're still operating with two billing systems, two CRM systems, two customer front systems, there will be investment going into that.
The majority of the network investment, we already did, I'm quite pleased with the situation we are in now on the network side. Will we use that in our competition?
Yes, of course, but I've said in every quarter that don't expect us to be price aggressive. We are rather focusing on customer experience, and if the customer experience we can deliver now based on our premium spectrum position is better than our competitors, well, it's up to the customers to choose.
As I also said, it's not only about spectrum quality anymore or network quality, it's about the seamless experience that you have, that it really works across regardless of which apps you are using. That's why I'm saying also that the focus where we are having on the network side is shifting to seamless end-to-end customer experience, not only to make sure that the connectivity works where you are.
Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Thank you, [krub?] .
My second question is on your core revenue growth guidance, which is about 2% to 3% this year. Now, it almost two months passed, right?
Are you seeing momentum pick up already in this quarter? Because last quarter, you still lost the revenue by 1% year-on-year, right?
Or is more on the back-end loaded, which means that it's going to come in the second half rather than the first half in terms of the revenue growth that you target? Could you break down the expected growth by business unit, like mobile, broadband, and also the digital?
As you mentioned, as Khun Nakul mentioned, that the mobile growth will come from ARPU uplift, and broadband from the subscriber growth. If you can explain a little bit more, it's going to be good.
Also, the key initiatives that convert from the negative to the positive growth, what was your initiative that you already deploy? Lastly, on your big move strategy, Khun Sigve, how much should we expect all of them to be converted into the core revenue growth in the medium term?
I think when you are talking about a big move, 2% to 3% doesn't seem big for me, right? Just want to hear from you.
Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
I can take the last part of the question, and then you can take the first one. The 2% to 3% is a 2026 guiding.
How it's going to look like in 2027 and 2028, we will come back to. Of course, it takes time to build those big moves into a growth momentum.
The key initiatives, I would say, are as following: One, we will continue to focus on quality inflow to get customers in on a higher ARPU level and then with a lower churn. That we will do on prepaid, that we will do on postpaid, that we will do on online.
This customer inflow part of also the effect that that will have on the revenues is one part of it. The second part of it, as I said, it's the customer value management that we are running now, where we are increasing ARPU with existing customers, get them over to packages which are more suited to their needs, and we see effects coming out of that already.
That's the second one. Then, I would say the third one is to start to monetize services beyond connectivity, and that especially with convergence in the homes with all the IoT devices, and it is in the B2B segment.
Nakul Sehgal
Thank you. Thank you for the question, Khun Pisut.
Many subparts to one question, [krub?] , so— He is
Sigve Brekke
smarter now.
Nakul Sehgal
I know. On the core revenue guidance, the first thing, and just to supplement what Khun Sigve mentioned, if you look at fourth quarter and you annualize the fourth quarter, assuming there is no growth in 2026, we are flat on an year-on-year basis, unlike our competitor, they're sitting on a significant growth already, because the momentum is being high for them.
For us, we were going down, and then we had a bump-up in the fourth quarter. The way you should kind of project the numbers is keeping seasonality in mind, of course, number of days plays a factor in Q1, but there should be a consistent growth in the businesses going forward.
If there is a growth momentum coming on account of mobile, that momentum should continue, barring for the seasonalities that are there in the business. As far as broadband is concerned, online is concerned, yes, it is subscriber-led, but it will also be ARPU-led as well, ARPU playing a slightly lower factor as compared to the growth in the subs.
We're sitting at an ARPU of ฿498. Our competitor is sitting at ฿530.
There is an opportunity for us to grow the ARPU as well, with a plethora of services that Khun Sigve spoke about. I do not want to break the growth into each businesses, but what I can indicate, as I've always done in the past, is growth in ARPU, especially in the mobile business, is going to be round about the growth that you see in the GDP, 1.5% odd percent.
The growth in online business has to be higher for the average to be sitting at 2% to 3%, because a subscriber-led growth coupled with the growth in the ARPU will obviously give us a better result as compared to the mobile growth only, because the penetration in the mobile business is in the mid-40s or late 40s right now. Last but not the least, B2B is kind of an untapped opportunity, we will be working on it as we go forward.
Just keep in mind the Q4 numbers, and then build a momentum on this going forward, keeping consideration the seasonalities that are involved in the business as well. [Krub?]
.
Operator
Okay. Thank you, Khun Pisut.
Let us move to one of the questions online first. We will come back to the room.
Piyush from HSBC, you can unmute yourself.
Piyush Choudhary
Hi. Good morning.
Congratulations on great set of results. Two questions: Firstly, on capital allocation, you have raised the dividend payout ratio to at least 70%.
I just want to understand, does it incorporate any future potential spectrum outflows, whether it is 2,100 in 2027 or potential auction of 3,500, or would you kind of have flexibility to reduce the payout ratio if those needs arise? That is first.
Secondly, on the management team side, Sigve, last time you mentioned you would like to retain the Telenor executives and move them to local contracts, whether it is Nakul, Sharad, Naureen, or head of networks. If you can update us on the same.
Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
I can take the second one. Yes, I'm in dialogue with these guys to actually have them on local contracts, and I think it's fair to assume that all of them will do that.
I will retain the senior expats that are going from a Telenor expat contract into a local True employment contract. Don't expect any change in the management team.
Nakul Sehgal
Okay. Thanks for the question, Piyush.
On the capital allocation, yes, we've raised the dividend payout ratio, and this is with confidence that we see in the performance in the fourth quarter as well as the bumper cash flows that you will see in the year 2026 because of the spectrum savings, approximately ฿24 billion. Your question on whether it accounts for the renewal of 2,100, the answer is yes.
We have already factored in the renewal of 2,100. However, this does not include 3,500 auction, because we do not have a visibility of 3,500 yet.
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Can we have Khun Jean next, please?
Thitithep Nophaket
Thank you. Thitithep from KKPS.
I have three questions. The first one, if we look at the mobile phone revenue growth, there's still quite a sizable gap between your growth and your competitor growth in the fourth quarter of the year, and we are already a few quarters after the network disruption.
I would like to know your view, what is the main reason for the gap, and how do you plan to narrow or close the gap in the next few years? Second question is on guided CAPEX to sales.
You guided that the CAPEX to sales was 17% last year. You would like to slash it to 13% to 14%.
Now your competitor has guided 15% CAPEX to sales in the next three years, not much different from you, just 1% to 2% higher. I think they did say that they would like to maintain 15% in order to widen the network quality gap.
Do you think that would have any impact on your effort to cross or to narrow revenue growth gap between the two firm? Then the last question, you target to grow EBITDA margin further by a few percentage point in the next few years.
You did say that you can adopt the AI, your main organization become simpler. In term of which item of the cost are you looking to slash?
Is it network OPEX, or is it depreciation expense, or is it SG&A? Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
I can take one and two, and you take the third one. No, the reason why AIS is still growing better than us in the fourth quarter, of course, they have a different speed into the quarter than we had.
We came from a negative growth in the first three quarters, we came from a negative net customer growth into a quarter where we then turned positive on customer acquisition, 500,000 or so, and when we start to positive on growth. I will say that's a timing effect with kind of the speed that they came with.
For us, fourth quarter was turning the curve, and that was what we promised also in the third quarter, that we are bottoming out and coming back. I think that's the main reason.
Now we see that the churn is almost down to AIS level, still have a little bit way to go. We see that the offerings are more or less similar.
Of course, we have lost customers over the last three years, that being the network incident or not being good enough for customer experience. Going forward, we will both try to take our fair share of the net adds in the market and grow the number of subscribers, but also then grow the ARPU with the subscribers that we have.
On the CAPEX to sales, I don't want to comment on what AIS plan to do, but what I can say is that the spectrum advantage that we now have, the single network that we built last year, I'm not going to give up on the network parity that we have with AIS now. I don't think that neither of us are ahead neither on speed nor on coverage, and I'm not going to give that up.
If that AIS compete with us on getting the network experience better and better, will we do. That's the plan.
Thitithep Nophaket
Then your question on the EBITDA growth and which items of expense that we are looking at: I think the expense reduction is going to be broad-based, but primarily, AI is going to be the center point on how we're going to transform the organization. It'll be more the SG&A that is going to reduce.
The S part of the SG&A is going to increase in tandem with the increase in revenues, because the revenue-generating OPEX is going to increase, because we have to fuel the growth. Then the G&A part is going to be the ones that is going to be showing the improvement, because of the upskilling that Khun Sigve spoke about, the IT transformation that we spoke about, the people efficiency that we spoke about as well.
Additionally, there is going to be reduction in the IT spends of the company as well, but IT as a percentage of total OPEX is relatively very small, the magnitude of that may not be very high. Last but not the least, the network as a cost is going to continue to be optimized.
Of course, there is going to be certain expansion in the network that is always going to be there in case of a telco, but the autonomous network that Khun Sigve talked about, the efficiencies that Khun Sigve talked about of the scale, that is going to help us keep that expansion in check. That's another efficiency area as well.
That's why we talk about splitting up the OPEX between revenue-generating OPEX and non-revenue-generating OPEX. The revenue-generating OPEX is going to increase, and the revenue-generating OPEX should be similar to the revenue growth that you have, because that is the OPEX you used for your sales, marketing efforts, and so on and so forth, which means that the non-revenue-generating OPEX has to go down.
I have said many times that going forward, we should have a zero OPEX year-on-year, which means that the growth you have in revenue-generating OPEX will have to be balanced with the non-revenue-generating OPEX. I don't see why with new technology, we shouldn't be able to have a flat OPEX year-on-year based on actually a revenue growth.
We may not be able to do that this year, because it takes some time to get those transformative activities in place, but going forward, that is my ambition. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Jean. Can we move online to Arthur?
Hi. Good
Operator
morning.
Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions, please.
First, on the revenue growth guidance, could you please run us through how you get to this, because I understand you've anchored this to the 1.5% GDP growth, but Thailand just recently raised their targets just this week. I'm just wondering how that flows through.
Related to this, how do you interpret the difference in growth outlook between yourself and AIS, where they're looking at 3% to 5% and you're looking at 2% to 3%? Second question I had, it's a bit more boring, but with regard to your tax rates for 2026, 2027, are you able to guide for that given that you do have some tax credits on board, which I assume are expiring?
I'm just wondering how much of this can be consumed given that it does impact the dividend as well.
Nakul Sehgal
Thanks for the question, Arthur. Let me take both of them.
I think the one on revenue, we've partly answered. That was, I think, Khun Jean who asked about it.
Let me just explain it in brief again. The reason why there is a difference in the outlook of our competitor and us is basically the momentum.
If you just do the math, if you're coming on a consecutive quarter of growth until Q4 of 2025, if you do not even grow for the whole of 2026, you're already sitting at a 3%-plus growth. Whereas, on the other hand, if you're coming on a lower momentum for three quarters and a slight growth in fourth quarter, then you're kind of sitting on a flat on an year-on-year basis.
Hence, the way you should look at our progress is how the quarter-on-quarter we are performing versus the industry. I think I've already shared where the growth is going to come from, whether it's the mobile business, whether it's the broadband business, whether it's the Pay TV, how we're going to make sure that we do not bleed on to the new business anymore, and of course, the growth in the B2B and the digital as well.
Then to your boring question, I'll give an exciting answer. As far as the tax rates are concerned, yes, we have enough NOLs, net operating losses carry forward, which will enable us not to pay any significant tax outflow for the next couple of years.
Operator
Thank you, Arthur. Did you have a follow-up?
You are muted.
With regard to the tax loss carryforwards which going to be consumed, is it mostly this year, or is it going to be split between this year and next year?
Nakul Sehgal
Sorry, can you repeat that? I missed the first part.
Sorry. Any guidance in terms of how much is left and how it will be consumed between this year and next year?
Nakul Sehgal
I think we have enough NOLs that can be absorbed in the next two years of profit.
Next two years.
Nakul Sehgal
Yeah, 2026 and 2027.
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, Arthur. We can move on to the questions in the room.
Khun Nuttapop first. Yes.
Khun Nuttapop
Thank you. Nattapop from Thanachart Securities.
Two questions, please. First one, you mentioned ARPU discrepancy from yourself and your competitor, AIS, as well.
Do you think customer mix have a play in that? Would that lead to different contents that you may let out some, you get something else on that?
Just one a bit thing on ARPU is that your average ARPU in both mobile and broadband seem to be at par or nearly below the if I'm not wrong, starting package prices of both mobile and broadband. Would that mean again customer mix, or should we go another way around in a positive side that it means like some discounts given out like past four, five years, I don't know, we'll try to in and that should recover soon?
That's the first one on ARPU. The second one, on impairments set, two sub-questions.
The number one is whether network CAPEX impairment, if I may call, seems to still be high, like ฿1.2 billion in the fourth quarter, while your modernization things has completed. What happened, or should we expect more in 2026, of course?
About the small investment in JVs, digital, small accommodating that those are the result from venture capital boom past few years back, how big is that now in your portfolio? Should we expect some kind of more impairment?
Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
I can try to take the ARPU. I would say that on prepaid, the ARPU should be more or less the same between ourselves and AIS.
However, we are probably sitting on some existing prepaid customers that came in on a more aggressive package than what AIS is sitting on. When those packages are expiring, of course, we will start migrating also prepaid customers over to packages which is more or less the packages that you see sold in the market today.
The prepaid offers you see for new customers today are more or less the same. It's a timing effect, I would say, where we will have very similar prepaid ARPU as AIS.
I don't think the customer profile there is very different. On postpaid, it is.
I think AIS is sitting on higher postpaid ARPU customers than we do. That is basically also over the last three years, where we did not deliver good enough experience for those customers.
With now a focus on experience, as a network parity and a focus on customer experience, I think over time, we also will take our fair share of those more high-value customers. On online, I think the network experience that we have had on online has not been good enough, and we had had quite some discounts for the inflow we have got on online over the last two, three years.
Those packages also now starting to remove, and don't expect us to be more price aggressive in online segment than AIS is. I will say prepaid, online, there should be more or less the same ARPU going forward.
On the postpaid side, it will take some time.
Nakul Sehgal
Thank you, Khun Nattapop, for your question. Let me take the second one, but I just wanted to add something on the prepaid ARPU: even though the starting plans that you see in the market are ฿150, there is a certain section of customers who are receiving incoming calls, they obviously don't have that much of an ARPU.
Just keep that in mind, that's same for us and for our competitor as well. Then on the impairment, yes, the network CAPEX impairment is slightly higher.
This does not only include the mobile side, it includes the online side as well. As we are upgrading our online network, we identified areas which we need to clean up or in terms of impair, and that has been recorded in fourth quarter.
That explains why the 200 sites or 250 sites that we completed in Q4 is not leading to a similar impairment that you have seen in the previous period. As far as the other investments is concerned, we've recorded roughly ฿2.4 billion of impairment.
This is on all the JV companies and the boom that you spoke about in the past, the investments that have been made there. I would say the net book value of these investments right now is not that significant anymore, there should not be a significant exposure coming on account of this in future, [krub?]
.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Nuttapop. Can we move on to Khun Wasu here?
Wasu Mattapochanart
Good morning. Wasu from Maybank Securities.
I have three questions. The first one is about network quality and network perception.
I'm aware that True will continue to spend on CAPEX to improve quality, but how about on the perception side? Are there any plans to boost the network perception for both the mobile and fixed broadband customers in the short to medium term?
That's the first question. The second question is about the digital services.
If I heard Khun Nakul correctly, you were saying that the digital services growth should offset the decline in Pay TV revenue. What kinds of digital services do you expect to boost the revenue growth going forward?
That's the second question. My final question is about the long-term EBITDA margin target.
Your original target, I think in early 2025, you were targeting 67% EBITDA margin by 2027. Now you are targeting more aggressive, 68% in this year.
What led to you to be more optimistic about the EBITDA margin target? Is it better expectation of revenue, or cost savings, or both?
That's my last question. Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
Yes, let me start with the first one. Yes, definitely.
There is still a perception gap. The reality, I would say there is no gap between ourselves and AIS anymore.
That's our claim, and that is what we see from our network studies also, but there is still a perception gap. We are going to deal with that.
Expect us to run both national campaigns, but more importantly, local campaigns to deal with that. Hopefully, during the year, we have also closed that perception gap with AIS on network.
Guiding up on EBITDA, I think it's a mix of those two things. We see now that the revenue momentum that we came out from Q4 on and taking into next year is good, but we also see that the transformational efficiency programs that we have really works.
That's why we are more bullish on also continuing to cut costs going forward, which is not cost related to the synergies that we got from the amalgamation, but it's more cost related to a transformation of the business.
Nakul Sehgal
Thanks for the question, Khun Wasu. I was thinking that you will come much earlier in the day for the questions, but it's okay.
On the digital service versus Pay TV, let me just correct you: what I mentioned was the decline in Pay TV should be offset by the growth in digital media and not the digital services as such. That's what we intend to do right now.
Intention is because the Pay TV is declining roughly 4% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, we want to make sure that with the digital media, with the content that Khun Sigve spoke about, we are able to monetize it in a way that we are stemming the decline. Then just wanted to add on the EBITDA margin, in Q3, I remember you asked us a question that you're already sitting at 67% EBITDA margin, won't you upgrade your guidance for the year?
Now that we have upgraded the guidance, now you're asking us why have we upgraded the guidance? Q4 2025, we're sitting at 67.5% already, [krub?]
. That's why we're talking about 68% in 2026.
Thank you.
Wasu Mattapochanart
Thank you. When you're saying that you offset the growth from the digital media to offset the Pay TV decline, does that mean when you look at the Pay TV revenue in 2026, there should not be any significant decline anymore?
Nakul Sehgal
Except to the extent when you're still going to compare year-on-year for EPL. That's it.
Yes, otherwise, it should be normalized.
Wasu Mattapochanart
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Wasu. Khun Kittisorn from InnovestX.
Kittisorn Pruitipat
Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions.
The first one is about the dividend payout target. You already mentioned that the policy is at least 70% of net profit.
My question is, is there any target on the normalized profit? Because every quarter, you have one-time expense, should we expect similar level at normalized profit for the payout?
That's my first question. The second question is about the transaction with Arise.
When do you expect the transaction to be completed? That's my second question.
Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
On the second question, I think we expect that transaction to be completed during March sometimes.
Nakul Sehgal
Yes. On the dividend payout target, let me first correct: the dividend policy has not changed, [krub?]
. The dividend policy is still at least 50% of the payout on a reported profit basis.
However, in terms of our guidance, we have considered a 70% payout. As far as is there a separate guidance for normalized, the answer is no.
There is only one guidance on the reported profit, because a bulk of the write-offs has already been done, network modernization is over, we've reviewed the investments that we have already. There should be a marginal difference between the normalized and the reported profit, that's why we are only going to guide on the reported profit going forward.
Kittisorn Pruitipat
Thank you, [krub?] .
Sigve Brekke
Let me also add on the dividend, and I think we also have said that the dividend policy is unchanged, but we also have a progressive dividend, meaning an actual increase in payout year-by-year, expect that also to happen.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Kittisorn. We have a question online.
Can we unmute Izzati?
Hello, can you hear me?
Operator
Yes.
Right. Just one question from me.
Earlier in the presentation, I think I heard that we still are running on two billing systems and also CRM, even though majority of the network has been consolidated. What's the plans on the consolidation for the back-end systems, and if so, will there be implications to margins or some of the cost items or CAPEX?
Sigve Brekke
Yes, you are correct. We are running actually four different systems in parallel, and we haven't been prioritizing this, because we want to have our network in place first.
Now we are prioritizing that, and that is going to take us a couple of years to simplify and to modernize. All this is in the plans that we are guiding.
This is more it's not big, big CAPEX numbers if you think about what we invest in the network. It's more to make sure that there are no customer effects of it when you start migrating.
We have started migrating some over to one billing system already, but we do this step by step. Expect us, and as Khun Nakul also said, there are not big, big cost savings out of this.
This is more a customer simplicity and a customer journey effort. We are doing that as we speak, but it will take us a couple of years, but that is all included in the guidings that we have.
Operator
Thank you, Izzati. Any more questions from the room?
Khun Nattapop.
Khun Nuttapop
Sorry, Nattapop again. Just two quick follow-ups: The first one, Sigve, you mentioned progressive dividend, you mean payout, right, not absolute, payout percentage will also increase also?
Sigve Brekke
No, not the percentage. I'm talking about the actual payout, the amount.
Khun Nuttapop
The amount. All right, thank you.
The second one, you mentioned about more aggressive fixed broadband investment infrastructure. Should we expect basically faster subscriber gain for you, and is that meaning you are entering into may I call new greenfield area, or it's more like you are untapped area, but there will be some tenants already there?
Thank you.
Sigve Brekke
Yes. On the online side, we are going to do three things with our investments: The first one is to improve the network quality of where we already are.
There are areas where we are not happy with the minute loss or with the outages we have in our online network. That's the first one, and this is everything from modernizing the last mile in broadband to replacing batteries to also all those type of things that has not been prioritized the first three years.
The second thing we do is to trying to be utilizing the network we have built better, and to the pots that we have around in the areas where we have coverage should be better utilized. We are trying then to pocket-wise go in and actually do the connect the homes where we have passed a network already, so that's the second one.
The third one, it's to also gradually move into areas where nobody have a broadband offer. It's a combination of these three things.
I think today there are a little bit less than 10 million households in Thailand having a broadband connection, that's combining us and what AIS do, and there are 22 million households in Thailand, it's still a room to grow to connect those that still don't have a broadband connection. Those are the three things.
Again, don't expect us to be price aggressive to do this. Expect us to be actually very much focusing on the customers that we have and with a better experience, and with that, an upsell opportunity for existing customers to higher-speed packages, better utilization of the network that we already have, and then in a, what should I call it, granular way, go into areas where we think that the customer should be served with a fixed solution.
Operator
Khun Wasu.
Just one more question for Khun Sigve: You were saying that you expect the OPEX to be flat in the long term, but not this year. How long-term are we talking about?
Now,
Sigve Brekke
I don't have any guiding on that, but as soon as possible. This I have with me as experience from my previous job: that is possible actually to grow revenues with a flat OPEX if you do it right.
I said, I don't think it's realistic that we'll be able to do it this year. You see already from the EBITDA guiding, which is significantly more than the revenue guiding, some of this is already in there.
In the coming years, in the strategy period then, to close down to that, we should be able to deliver on that.
Operator
Thank you, Khun Wasu. Any further questions, both online and in the room?
No? Then.
Thank you so much to everyone. Hope you all had a Happy Chinese New Year, and also Ramadan Kareem to everybody celebrating.
We will see you next time.
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