Operator
Welcome to Nepa Q3 2026 report presentation. For the first part of the presentation, participants will be in listen-only mode.
During the questions and answers session participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key 5 on their telephone keypad. If you are listening to the presentation via webcast, you can ask written questions using the form below.
Now, I will hand the conference over to CEO Anders Dahl. Please go ahead.
Anders Dahl
Good morning, and welcome to Nepa's Q3 report. My name is Anders Dahl, and I'm the CEO of Nepa.
Together with me today is Edvard Hagman, who is our VP of Finance. Today's agenda: we're going to talk a little bit about Nepa, who we are, and what we are doing.
Then we're going to walk you through the Q3 results and the first 9 months of this year. Then mention a little bit about the acceleration phase and progress and priorities.
Then walk you through more in details about our financials, talk a little bit about the product and our AI development, and then look into the outlook and priorities. As always, towards the end or after this presentation, there will be room for questions and answers, please come in with questions if you have any.
At Nepa, we turn marketing data into actionable growth decisions. Nepa is today we are a leading marketing intelligence company, helping global brands across the globe making better marketing and growth decisions.
We track the brand health of 7,500 brands on a daily basis, and we measure thousands of advertising campaigns annually across 50+ markets. We deliver insights to CMOs, marketing teams, and insight departments of global consumer brands across the globe all the time.
We are a global marketing intelligence platform where we combine data, technology, and advisory. Our core offering combines brand tracking, campaign evaluation, and marketing mix modeling, and also continuous marketing modeling, which we launched more than a year ago.
These are all supported by high-end or white-glove advisory services. We combine survey data, business data from the global business data and from the client side, and also marketing investments with technology and expertise to deliver recurring and project-based ad hoc insights.
We have a strong presence in Northern Europe. We have commercial teams in the UK and US, and we have an operations center in Mumbai.
As you've seen from the last quarterly reports, we do have a growing recurring revenue base, which is complemented by project-based insights. On the subscription side, we have brand tracking, continuous marketing mix modeling, we have ad tracking, we have consumer experience tracking, and we have recurring data deliveries.
That stands for about 64% of our last 12 months deliveries to our clients, or revenue. On the ad hoc side, we have campaign evaluation, campaign pulse, we do marketing mix modeling as ad hoc services as well, and we have brand touch and brand assets also as ad hoc and project-based deliveries.
We do category insights, and we have other key marketing insight products that we deliver to our clients. That stands roughly 36% of our last 12 last 12 months revenue.
For Q3 2026, we have a subscription growth and higher earnings, but we see a little bit of a weakness on the bookings. Subscription growth, but contraction late in the quarter put ARR lower than in Q2, and subscription revenue increased by 14.8%.
ARR increased by 9.7% year-on-year to 135.8 million, and net revenue retention was 95.8% and churn was 1.6%. Commercial development: ARR bookings increased by 11%.
Total sales bookings decline, and we have seen the same pattern for the last quarters, and that is entirely due to lower ad hoc bookings. Few large ad hoc projects towards the end of the quarter put also some pressure on net sales that declined by 2.6%.
On the very positive side, we see improved earnings: adjusted EBITDA less CapEx improved by 1.9 million, and gross margin increased by 1.4 percentage points. Net income improved, and on the corporate event side, as you've seen from the press releases, that I will leave Nepa during Q1 of 2027, and the board is actively now recruiting my successor.
For the first 9 months, we see an underlying growth and a positive adjusted EBITDA CapEx, which is very positive, and the underlying growth in recurring revenue, which is the focus area that we have been working hard with during the last 3 years, really focused on ARR and recurring revenue. The subscription revenue grew by 14.2% underlying, net sales grew by 2% underlying, and ad hoc revenue from other clients declined, which is also a trend, by 27.8%.
On the commercial development side, you have seen that ARR bookings increased by 1.4%. On the improved earnings side, adjusted EBITDA less CapEx for the last 9 months improved to 1.1 million, and gross margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 75.9%.
Net income improved to -9.5 million SEK. I will hand over to Edvard to talk a little bit about our ARR development over time.
Edvard Hagman
Thank you, Anders. ARR was up 9.7% year-on-year, but, however, it declined from Q2 due to weaker retention during the quarter.
Net revenue retention was 95.8% compared with 99.8% in the same quarter last year, while churn increased to 1.6% versus 0.2% in Q3 2025. Looking at the chart, ARR development has been solid over the past year.
We have generally had high retention, low churn, and quite good contribution from new sales in previous quarters. This quarter was weaker.
The churn in the quarter mainly relates to one discontinued contract in our legacy CX business, while the contractions came from very few contracts in our core business. ARR bookings still increased by 11% year-on-year, but in nominal terms Q3 normally offers quite small figures compared to other quarters, and it's a quiet period sales-wise, particularly in the Nordics because of the summer period.
That means that there were fewer expansions and new sales to offset the negative contract movements. After a particularly strong quarters, retention is closer now to normal levels year-to-date, including Q3 then.
Our top priority is to improve conversion and return ARR to sequential growth. Subscription revenue presents a stronger picture.
It grew by 14.8% in Q3, just to over 35 million Swedish kronor. We are now back at roughly the same quarterly subscription revenue we had in Q2 2025, and that was before all of the phased-out contracts and extraordinary churn had fully affected the numbers.
Ad hoc revenue, however, continued to decline and held back total net sales. This reflects lower business volumes, partly in the UK, which previously have contributed quite good in the quiet Nordic summer period.
It also reflects a more focused ad hoc offering that we have today and general lower sales activity. As a result, the strong subscription revenue growth was not enough to fully offset the decline in ad hoc revenue.
In Q3, we continued to make good progress in the acceleration phase. First, recurring revenue has returned to year-on-year growth.
Second, the cost actions taken in 2025 have established a structurally lower cost base, particularly in personnel and other external costs. Together, these developments are driving a clear improvement in both margins and earnings.
Adjusted EBITDA less CapEx improved by 1.9 million in the quarter to 2.3 million. On a rolling 12-month basis, it has improved in each of the past 4 quarters and now stands at around 7.7 million compared with negative 9.6 million 12 months ago.
This is a significant improvement, but we need stronger commercial execution to maintain this momentum going forward. The priorities are therefore quite clear: improve conversion, expand our client relationships, and continue to build on the ARR base.
To summarize the quarter, subscription revenue grew by almost 15%, but net sales declined by 2.6% because ad hoc revenue fell around 30%. In local currencies, the net sales decline was around 1.7%.
The gross margin did improve during the quarter by 1.4 percentage points. Our core marketing optimization segment had a strong contribution to this, with its gross margin improving by 3.3 percentage points.
Personnel costs were 7% lower than last year, and other external costs were 13% lower. This reflects the structurally lower cost base following the measures that we implemented during last year.
We're also seeing the benefits of improved delivery efficiency and the use of AI. Internal product margins are at very good levels, which gives us room to grow recurring revenue within the existing organization.
As a result, despite lower total net sales than in previous year, both earnings and margins improved. Operating cash flow was -9.1 million during the quarter, mainly due to a negative working capital movement.
Q3 is normally seasonally weaker for cash flow, and this quarter the timing of customer receipts and current liabilities both had an impact. The net financial position was 8.1 million at the end of September, excluding the unused credit facility of 20 million.
Handing back over to Anders.
Anders Dahl
Thank you, Edvard. We know for sure that marketers around the globe are struggling to connect data, brand building, and performance.
We know that 70% or more of marketers struggle to prove the ROI of their marketing efforts. Close to 70% of marketers struggle to balance performance marketing and creative branding, and 65% of marketers struggle to make sense of the data and use it to inform their marketing decisions.
We know that the Trinity offer, where we combine marketing mix modeling, continuous marketing mix modeling, brand tracking, and campaign evaluation, is a great fit in the market. We see that also reflecting in the numbers with higher recurring revenue, higher ARR sales over time.
We see that there is definitely demand in the market to show the bigger picture. I think this is the view that I think is very exciting, and I think that we get a lot of good feedback from the market where we turn complex marketing into clear business decisions across brand, creative assets, and media investments.
With our core products—brand tracking, campaign evaluation, continuous marketing mix modeling—combined with sales data, media investments, and current performance from our clients, and also other internal information and external information, we do have the tools and the platform to help brands to analyze and improve their brand strength, the brand positioning, and the targeting, but also to help them in the campaign work with creative assets, audience and context fit, and brand platform fit. Also in the more tactical way when it comes to media spend and media allocation, pacing, and in-channel optimization.
We have a totally different relevance in the marketer's toolbox than we have had ever before. Talking to CMOs and marketing leadership, agencies, media planning, and performance marketing teams is much easier when we have the full view with our Trinity offer.
That has moved us during the last 3 years from just being a brand tracking company and a marketing research company to more of a fully equipped partner to our clients and being able to help them in an ongoing basis. We enter Q4 with greater commercial focus, improved profitability, and an operating model with the capacity for growth.
The sequential ARR decline and weaker ad hoc bookings make the priorities very, very clear for the entire organization. Improved sales execution with clear priorities, structured account development, and closer coordination between sales delivery and specialists is one of our core priorities for Q4.
Continue to build ARR, improve conversion, win more clients, and return ARR to sequential growth. Expand client relationships to cross-sells to clients that only have brand tracking, for example, or campaign measurements, and to grow priority accounts across brand, campaign, and CMMM with the Trinity offer.
Also continue to drive operational leverage to grow within the existing organization. Like Edvard said before, we see good efficiency targets or efficiency numbers in the organization, revenue growth translate into earnings growth.
As we informed earlier in press releases that I will leave during Q1 of next year, and the recruitment of the next CEO is underway. With this, we will wrap this up and leave over to the questions and answers section.
Thanks a lot for listening in to the first phase of the presentation, and looking forward to the questions and discussions after this presentation. Thanks.
Operator
If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad.
The next question comes from Alice Beer from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.
Alice Beer
Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation.
Starting off on the ARR bridge, could you just give us some more color on which segments or clients caused the decline from Q2? Is more of the legacy CX base that you talked about at risk?
Edvard Hagman
The legacy CX part is quite a small part of our business now, and we have very few remaining clients on that platform. One of those clients churned during the quarter, which was part of the sequential ARR decline.
It was also a very small handful of other clients in our core segment that contracted for the next 12-month period during the quarter.
Alice Beer
Thanks. Then you commented on a few large projects towards the end of the quarter.
Could you just tell a bit more about this? Are these projects we should expect to see come back in another quarter or just were they...
Anders Dahl
Yes, I think definitely we would see them coming back in the following quarter or quarters, they're not lost.
Alice Beer
Great. Then, you mentioned this, but personnel costs were down 7% in the quarter.
I think they're down about 11% year-to-date. Should we expect a further decline in Q4 and onwards?
When do personnel costs start growing again?
Edvard Hagman
I think you will see the same trajectory we have been seeing, but maybe flattening out a bit. We haven't done any major changes to the personnel side, and all changes we are doing are mainly the most important and prioritized replacements.
We're not in the overall personnel base focusing on growing that. That's not the priority at the moment.
We see rather that we have quite good room for growth within the existing personnel base.
Alice Beer
Perfect. Just on Q4, since Q4 is a quarter for ad hoc, should we view the ad hoc revenues of Q3 as sort of a state of the current market, or any of the bookings that should have come in Q3, will they instead come in Q4?
Anders Dahl
I think, like I said before, I think the ad hoc bookings that we see, one thing is that we're seeing from previous quarter is a bit of a weakness in the market, but there is definitely also a lot of wait-and-see during this entire year. We're expecting a lot of them coming back in Q4.
Alice Beer
Good to hear. Then ad hoc from subscribers declined year-over-year, but the subscriber count is up in the last 12 months.
Is this lower project spend per client, or is it strictly due to the strategic shift towards recurring contracts?
Edvard Hagman
It's part strategic shift to recurring contracts, but also the general activity in the market that we've seen, just an effect of that and lower spend per client.
Alice Beer
Great. Just a final question from me.
Since you're leaving, Anders, could you share anything more about the timeline for naming a successor? Does the board expect the Trinity strategy and the commercial agenda to carry over unchanged?
Anders Dahl
When it comes to the Trinity strategy, it's definitely there to stay, and I think we see good traction in the market. Of course, I can't really talk for the next CEO, and if the board would change their minds in the future, but right now we see a very strong product-market fit or offer-market fit.
Like I've said in the press releases, I will stay at least until the end of Q1, and that's my timeline.
Alice Beer
Understood. Thank you.
That was all for me.
Anders Dahl
Thank you.
Edvard Hagman
Thank you.
Operator
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad. Ska vi ta frågorna ändå?
There are no more questions at this time. I hand the conference back to the speaker for the written questions.
Edvard Hagman
Right, we have received some questions in the chat as well that I will read. First question: What does the 4.9 million in other receivables consist of?
The change here of 4.9 million reflects a reclassification of VAT and similar items in mainly our Indian subsidiary that was previously offset against current liabilities on the balance sheet. It's nothing new, but a reclassification.
Then next question: Was the decline in ad hoc order intake driven by campaign measurements or by large projects? I think as we wrote in the report, we saw quite good resilience in our core products.
It's rather by larger projects, for example, projects that we previously had in the UK that did not come this Q3. It's more of an effect of that.
Next question is: Should we view the lower level of ad hoc activity as a new normal, or was Q3 a one-off? No, I wouldn't judge this as a new normal.
I think Q3 is always kind of a bit of an iffy quarter because we know that summer, especially in the Nordics. I don't think we should see this as a new normal, no.
You posted around 7 job openings in October while order intake was weak. Are these replacement hires or net additions, and how do they fit within current utilization?
As I said previously, it's mainly replacements where we see priority to replace, and no net additions in that regard. We see that it fit with the current utilization levels that we have.
The hiring process in the Nordics takes some time. You have to be proactive and put out job ads in the market to actually some further months down the line get new hires and new talents into the company.
That's part of that explanation as well. The report gives no update on marketing acceleration and CMMM.
How is this area developing in customers and ARR?
Anders Dahl
We don't break that out separately, we can't really give you the details. Overall, I think the biggest leader, and like I said in the presentation before, talking about Trinity in general also leads into talking about CMMM.
I think opening up discussions with clients, that is probably one of our most important tools right now. The pipe and the expectations in the market look very good for the entire kind of Trinity offer, and that will, of course, reflect on marketing acceleration and CMMM as well.
Positive signals from the market, but we don't give specific details. What activities and actions do you have for the sales activity to pick up?
We have, of course, increased our marketing, and we did that already earlier this year. We are restructuring or we are working more focused in really closing the deals, building the pipeline.
The pipeline built has been good over the year, but we have seen a delay in making the decisions. We have just recently hired a new VP of Sales.
Both on a personal perspective or personal level, the structured way of working, and increased marketing are those things that we continue to develop and increase in order to, of course, improve our conversion and sales. Maybe
Edvard Hagman
on the same lines: If there is a good product-market fit, what is hindering sales?
Anders Dahl
What we've seen this year, and I think I said that already I think it was in Q2, that we see a bit of a wait-and-see. We are building pipeline, we have a lot of expectation, we are not losing that many deals, very few actually.
Most of the lack of conversion is more wait-and-see and move it to the next quarter. I think there is a reflection in the market.
That reflects new businesses, that reflects ad hoc from not existing subscribers. A bit of a wait-and-see, and we think, and what we see in the budget discussions with our clients, there is still money to be spent.
Hopefully we will see that coming through in Q4.
Edvard Hagman
I see that there are a lot of forward-looking questions in the comments and questions that we cannot really address. After that, I don't think there are any remaining questions.
I hand it back to you, Anders, for some final remarks. No,
Anders Dahl
I think this quarter again points out the stability in the strategy that we're moving forward in regards to improving the growth of ARR and continuous subscription, as subscription revenue is growing. Of course, the big disappointment for us as well is that we don't really see the full impact on the ad hoc sales, and we are now focusing entirely in this quarter to make sure that whatever is left in the budgets from our existing clients and new clients, that we should be able to close those deals during Q4.
Commercial execution is definitely number one, and I think you see that also in the way that the people we are hiring are all kind of client-facing or people that are able to close deals. I think we are and we are definitely in a very good position when it comes to internal operational efficiency.
I'm really proud of the work we have done, and we see that in the improvement in profitability. Thanks a lot for listening in to this call, and see you soon.
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