Nordnet AB

Nordnet AB

320.20
SEK
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91.55BMarket Cap
Jan 27Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptJanuary 28, 2026

Marcus Lindberg

Good morning, and welcome to the presentation of Nordnet's fourth quarter of 2025. My name is Marcus Lindberg, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Nordnet.

With me today, I have our CEO, Lars-Åke Norling, and our CFO, Lennart Krän. Lars-Åke and Lennart will start off by presenting the results, and then we'll have a Q&A session.

During the presentation, all participants will be on mute. Then when we come to the Q&A session, you have two alternatives to ask questions: you can click the raise hand button, I'll then unmute you and call your name, or you can submit a question in writing.

The presentation itself is available on our corporate website, nordnetab.com. Let's start the presentation.

Lars-Åke, please go ahead.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thank you, Marcus. Let's start with the highlights.

We see continued strong growth in our core brokerage and fund business from a growing customer base and also positive market sentiment. Also really good net savings and strong customer growth.

Overall, strong trading activity and another record quarter for cross-border trading. We see high trading both in the US markets, the European markets, and some Nordic markets, not least Denmark, with the big swings in Novo Nordisk.

We see a decline in net interest income due to lower policy rates, but it's partly mitigated by higher deposit levels. Cost growth is in line with target for the full year, around 8% excluding Germany.

We are now also launched a new private banking concept in all of our Nordic countries, and it's being very well received. We have passported now the Swedish bank license to Germany, and that's approved, and the H2 launch in Germany is on track.

Proposed dividend is 8.60 per share, up from 8.10 last year. Some of the financial highlights: strong customer growth at 12%, savings capital up 15%, both from underlying market growth, but also very strong net savings.

Number of trades up 16% from from growing customer base, but also positive markets. Revenues is up 6%.

We see a decline in net interest income from lower rates, but a very strong growth in our trading in and our fund business. Operating expenses is up 8% year-on-year including here costs of Germany, underlying cost development was lower, and that's mainly due to phasing of marketing costs versus last year or versus 2024.

Continued profitable growth with profit growing 5% for the quarter. Looking for the full year, and customer savings capital, of course, is same.

The trades is also for the full year strong, up 20%, both from then the growing customer base, but also the volatility we saw around the tariff uncertainty during the spring, but also strong market sentiment in H2. Adjusted revenues up 6% then for the full year, and we have a record revenue of around 5.4 billion.

Again, net NII going down due to lower rates, but also that we sold the personal loans portfolio in 2024. Again then, strong growth in the trading and fund business.

Adjusted operating expenses is 12% including Germany, but excluding Germany is around 8% as per guidance, and cost for Germany was around slightly lower than 60 million SEK in 2025. Also record on profit growth for the year 5% to around 3.8 billion SEK.

Also very good momentum both in customer growth and net savings. We have onboarded around 255,000 new customers in 2025, same absolute levels as in 2024.

Also very strong net savings, 78 billion SEK for the year, up from 73 billion in 2024. Our geographical diversification de-risks the business model and enables growth.

We see here that savings capital is growing also more than the customer growth except from Denmark. In Sweden, Norway, and Finland, we saw both good market development, but also strong net savings.

In Denmark, we had very good net savings, but as the Danish market had a very negative year in 2025 due to Novo Nordisk and Ørsted and some other shares going down quite a bit. Looking a little bit on the different revenue streams, starting with trading: we see here in the graph to the left, the blue line, that's the number of trading customers going up with the growing customer base.

Trades per trading customer is fairly stable in the quarter, but the share of cross-border trading is continuing to go up, both from the country mix, since we grow more in Denmark, Finland, Norway, where they naturally trade a lot outside the home market because the home market is small, but also that we saw strong trading and market sentiment in both Europe and US and also a lot of trading then in Denmark with Novo Nordisk. Trades per day up 20% compared to 2024, and each trade price 10% more revenue.

If you look to the left here on the graph, since '19 we have more than doubled the amount of trades per day, and that's of course since we more than doubled the customer base during the same period, from around 900,000 customers to 2.4 million customers. We also see that trades per customer per day is a little bit up in 2025, both from the volatility we saw during the spring from the tariff uncertainty, but also very strong market sentiment in H2.

We see also the income per trade is continuing to go up, and that's due to higher share of cross-border trading. Looking at the fund business, we see a steady growth in fund capital, and we have about doubled the fund capital since 2021, from 150 billion SEK to around 300 billion SEK now in 2025.

We see also the fund margin are stabilizing as active to passive shift slows, but also when customers buy passive funds, they mainly buy Nordnet passive funds where we have a higher margin. Over one-quarter of the fund capital is now in the Nordnet-branded funds, and more than half of the customers own funds.

We see slightly lower net flow or net buy into funds in 2025 versus 2024. That's mainly due to the uncertainty during the spring, where we saw outflows in March and April.

Looking at net interest income, starting with the deposit level, and here we look at deposit level for the full year, and that's going from 70 billion in the beginning of the year to 84 billion, up 20% from strong net savings and also high dividends. Then, of course, we're also seeing strong net buying during the year driving our core business, a lot of buying in brokerage and funds.

Looking at our snapshot that we normally do for NII, and now it's a snapshot for 2026: starting with the liquidity portfolio, we see or estimate 1.6 billion SEK in 2026, same level as 2025. The main sensitivity here is, of course, deposit volume, because with this estimate, we see deposit volumes fixed.

We see likely upside with deposit volumes with the growing customer base. Looking at liquidity portfolio in the quarter, it's up due to higher deposits and stable lending.

Overall, if you look at the interest rates passed on to the right is stable or slightly up in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, but it's going to be a little bit lower over the year in Norway, but from high levels. Looking at the loan portfolio snapshot for 2026, 1.1 billion, also same level as 2025.

Main sensitivity here is volume of margin lending, but we also likely will have an upside from customer growth and higher savings capital. We see in the graph up to the left, the red bar here, that's margin lending volume, that's been dipping a little bit, of course, during the spring with all the volatility, but it's recovered nicely in the fall from stronger market.

Overall, we have a very low-risk lending portfolio, loan-to-value both on mortgage and margin lending is around 40% and virtually no credit losses. Looking at the margins, we've had a full pass-through of the mortgage rate with the lowering of central bank rates, but we maintained the margin lending margin at fairly okay levels in spite of central bank cuts.

Go to next. Looking at deposit interest snapshot, it's 350 million SEK in 2026, so that's a little bit lower than we saw in 2025.

Main sensitivity here is amount of money on the savings accounts in each country, and we estimate that will go down when the interest rates are lower. We actually saw a little bit tick-up in the quarter in Sweden due to good growth in private banking.

In summary, very resilient revenues bolstered by our diversified revenue streams. Looking at those, how we see the red one is net interest income, the dark blue is fund, and the light blue is brokerage.

We see strong growth since '19 in all of those revenue streams. Of course, a decline in net interest income in 2025 due to lower rates, net interest income is around now 40% of the revenue.

We expect net interest income to stabilize in 2026, as we showed, due to that we are at the end of the rate cut cycle, and then it will likely start growing again from a growing customer base and thereby higher deposit and lending volumes. Looking at the margins, of course deposit margins are going down with lower rates.

We see uptick in brokerage margin for higher share of cross-border trading, but the fund margin continues stable around 25 bps. Overall, business model with very good operating leverage: we have a strong revenue growth, around 25% per year since 2019, but a limited cost growth of around 7%, most of the top-line growth ends up on the bottom line, really true position of profitable growth.

We also continue with a lot of launches for our platform, both features and products. We have focused quite a lot on the high-end segment during the year.

Just to mention a few things in quarter four that we introduced: as the first platform, that you can have recurring savings in crypto certificates. We also secured we have the same experience when it comes to setting up savings plans for fund savings as pension savings, and also a lot more rich data from FactSet, both historic data and forward-looking data for our instruments, that has been very well received by our customers.

With that, I think I hand over to you, Lennart.

Lennart Krän

Thank you very much, and yes, I'm very comfortable and pleased with the strong capital and liquidity situation that we still have and working on continuous having, with a leverage ratio of 5.1%, which is which is the constraining factor, of course, but also a lot lot of room for further deposits because that is the risk here. We also, as Lars-Åke presented earlier, recommend the dividend of 8.6 krona per share, which is an increase per share by 50 öre, but still within the targets that we have on 70 70% payout of the net result.

We have also throughout the year 2025 bought back shares, and we are continuing our program with that for about 100 million until the mid-March. A strong capital and liquidity situation, which makes us which creates a great flexibility for us going forward.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thank you, Lennart. A little bit on the strategic focus, and you probably recognize our strategic ambitions.

We have four main ambitions, starting, of course, with having the most satisfied customers by having this one-stop shop for savings and investments with a really good user experience. Then it's engaged employees: we know we can never have happy customers unless we have very passionate and talented staff, and that we manage to attract and retain top talent, which we can.

Then it's sustainable business: we are in a trust business, we need to earn that trust every day, and most important is to have really strong focus and management of our risks, and also that we overall are a trusted and liked brand. Last area is profitable growth: to capture the Nordic and German growth potential, to continue to take market share in a growing savings market in the Nordics, and then open Germany in H2 this year, and of course continue to secure scalability and cost control in our business.

We have had a very strong growth in customers and savings capital over the years. We have very satisfied customers, and the critical mass of customers also in each country, and thereby it works with customer recommending our platform to other customers.

Customer growth and savings capital and the savings growth is the most important growth drivers for us, as the customers sign up to the platform, they like what they see, they bring money from their other banks and start using our products. Note that we are taking market share in a growing savings market in the Nordics, but we still have a fairly low market share, it's a long growth potential in the Nordics, and at the same time we get extra optionality when we open Germany in H2.

We have 8% of the population on our platform in the Nordics, around 7% of the savings capital. That's up from 3% in '16, we're taking market share, and we know also that the underlying savings market is growing.

Highest market share in equities, but it's an area we of course are going to continue to focus on, but lower market shares in funds and pension, which is two important growth areas for us. Looking at the cost, we have a very scalable platform and also good cost control.

Underlying cost growth is around 3% per year, but then we have decided to reinvest some of the leverage into future growth, a little bit more product and tech, more marketing, the German launch now, and also that we set up a fund company and also pension companies in Denmark and in Finland. The medium-term financial targets is reiterated from from last year.

Looking at the quarter, we're mostly on track, or for the year, we are on track with all of those targets. We're only slightly behind on customer growth, 12% instead of 13% to 15%, but we and it's mainly due to, it was a lot of uncertainty and volatility during the spring that's impacted a little bit of customer growth.

We see in 2026 that it's good potential to reach the target level: it's positive markets, we continue to see effects of our marketing spend, we're launching a lot of new products in 2025, but also the real income for customers is increasing with lower rates and and also lower inflation. A little bit the key priorities for 2026: of course, it's been a lot of focus on the German launch in H2.

Passport of the license is done, most of the organization is in place, and we really been able to attract good people, which I think is a good sign. Development is full speed ahead now ongoing.

A positive with Germany is that the government has decided to introduce a pension account from 1st of 1st of Jan in 2027 where you can save without having to pay tax until you take it out from the pension account, it's a tax-efficient savings account. We know that from Sweden and other Nordic countries, that those tax-efficient accounts are really good for attracting capital from customers and also increasing interest to invest in the capital markets.

We of course going to continue to a strong focus on our fund business and the pension business, and not least to realize the potential in the Livrente Danish pension product. We see that net savings in pension in Denmark overall is up 45% in '25 versus '24, and a big driver of that is Livrente.

We focus a lot also on AI, both how we can integrate that into products, but also make our internal processes more efficient. On the product side, we just launched since before AI summaries of news, and now we just launched AI summaries of quarterly reports.

It's going to be a lot more exciting features to come in the product area. On the process side, I think the most interesting area for us is agentic coding, to see if we can make our development more efficient and get even higher throughput.

Then, of course, since we launched now private banking in all markets, we can develop and capitalize on that launch and also continue to release new functionality in this framework over the year. Last but not least, to maintain of course focus on cost control, focus on scalability and automation.

With that, I think I hand over to you, Marcus, for questions.

Marcus Lindberg

Great. Thank you, Lars-Åke and Lennart.

Now we'll open up for questions. Like I said before, if you want to ask a question, just click the raise hand button.

I'll then announce your name and unmute you. The first question comes from Patrik Brattelius at ABG.

Please go ahead, Patrik.

Patrik Brattelius

Do you hear me?

Marcus Lindberg

Yes, we can.

Patrik Brattelius

Perfect. Great.

My first question is regarding the optimism there on the customer growth that you ended your presentation with. We are seeing that Sweden is taking positive steps, and you said that you are optimistic that you will reach your target here in 2026.

Can you elaborate a little bit on which geographies you are specifically optimistic about and when do you foresee Sweden coming closer to the target level?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah. No, but overall, it's a good potential for growth since positive market sentiment, like I said.

We launched a lot of exciting products last year. We have more real income for the customers due to low inflation, lower rates.

With Sweden, as we're strong in the investor segment there, the high-end segment, and we'll see if we can broaden into the more saver segments. We see effect anyway of the marketing with higher awareness, higher consideration, and hopefully that can also spill over to a little bit higher customer growth during the year.

It will not be the same as in the other countries, because the main focus and our strength is still in more high-end segment. I would say we have a good potential to have a good growth in Sweden, but also in the other countries.

Not least Denmark, where we saw very strong growth last year in spite of very weak markets. With the market picking up in Denmark, it's going to be exciting to see that progressing over the year.

Finland, we just passed 700,000 customers, really good momentum, but also really good momentum in Norway. We are positive that we should be able to reach the growth target.

Patrik Brattelius

Thank you. In terms of cross-border trading, we've seen an increasing share the last couple of quarters.

How do you view this in terms of how temporary is this increase, or are this a longer trend that we should see continued increase of share of cross-border trading?

Lars-Åke Norling

That's a good question. It's partly due to the country mix, since we grow customer base more in countries outside of Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, where they traditionally trade more cross-border because they have a small home market.

Of course, that trend will continue and drive the cross-border share over time. Then we also see, not least during H2, strong cross-border trading both in the US, but also in Europe, not least from we also been launching 10 new markets in Europe for trading, which has been good, but also in some Nordic markets, especially Denmark around Novo Nordisk.

I think it's a big potential for cross-border trading going forward. Of course, the share of home bias is still strong, it's around 70% is invested in Nordics, I think it's room to diversify more.

Of course, it's more and more shares on the portfolios, and that in itself will lead to more cross-border trading. I think we over time, we'll see higher levels, but then, of course, it will go a little bit up and down versus the market sentiment in different markets.

Patrik Brattelius

Thank you. As a last question is regarding the private banking concept that you have launched now in all geographies: could you perhaps share some early reflections on the geographical differences?

Lars-Åke Norling

It's been very well received in all of our markets. We've been running it the longest in Sweden, since we launched in the summer, and we see an uptick in both net savings and customer numbers in the PB segment.

I think we have a very big potential in the other countries as well, but of course they've not been live that long, but off to a good start, I would say, and it's been, like I said, also very well received.

Patrik Brattelius

I see. Thank you.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thanks.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Patrik. Next question comes from Jacob Hesslevik at SEB.

Jacob Hesslevik

Good morning, everyone. Two questions from my side.

If we start with the new NII guidance for 2026, I assume that is on a flat or the current existing deposit base. Given it grew double digit, almost 20% in '25 over '24, what is your outlook on deposit development during 2026?

Lars-Åke Norling

I think we estimate that deposit will grow in absolute terms from a growing customer base and also strong net savings coupled to that. Of course, deposit versus savings capital is probably not going to take any dramatic jumps unless we have a real downturn in the market, then of course it will move really fast.

In absolute terms, we expect the deposit levels to grow.

Jacob Hesslevik

All right. Thank you.

Then finally, the new German pension savings account launching in January 2027 appears to be quite significant. How large do you estimate this market opportunity to be, and what preparations are needed to capitalize on it?

Lars-Åke Norling

It's going to be affect all the working population in Germany. Only 17% of Germans today invest in the capital markets.

It's of course a huge potential to attract more capital into the capital markets, and you can buy ETFs and funds in that wrapper. We know from experience from Sweden and the Nordic countries that those tax-efficient wrappers are really good for attracting both capital, but also interest from customers in the capital markets.

I think over time, it's going to be a very big product. It's very good that Germany has launched now a tax-efficient wrapper.

They haven't had that before, it's a big, big step forward. It's a bank product, it's not an insurance product, it's not that difficult for us to implement it either.

We don't need an insurance company in Germany to do that at this stage. Of course, a product we will secure that we have at launch.

Or when the product is launched, from 1st of Jan then 2027.

Jacob Hesslevik

Perfect. Thank you.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Jacob. Next question comes from Nicolas Vayssières from BNP Paribas Exane.

Nicolas Vayssières

Hello. Can you hear me?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah.

Nicolas Vayssières

Right. Thank you very much for taking the questions.

Just three questions for me. Should we go one by one?

In Sweden, I've noticed the net savings have gone down again sequentially this quarter. It's the same as happened for Avanza.

Can you tell us, what's your view on the momentum in net savings in Sweden?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah. Overall, we see a strong pick-up in net savings in Sweden in 2025 versus 2024.

It was a little bit down in end of the quarter, but it's more due to more one-off movements. We have customers in Sweden with really a lot of capital, it can swing a little bit month to month, and especially at year-end people always adjust their portfolios a little bit, it's nothing strange with that.

Hopefully we can, with a positive market sentiment also in 2026, we should be able to see a good net savings also in Sweden.

Nicolas Vayssières

All right. Thank you.

Still in Sweden, the increase in the ISK cap, I understand it was already in force in 2025. Can you tell us, among your customers, if you've seen people already making the most of the increase by adding more savings than their usual pattern in '25, or if it's something that we should see more coming in in '26 or even '27?

Lars-Åke Norling

Like I said, in 2025, we saw very good net savings in Sweden, both in retail, but not least in private banking after the new concept that we launched. Part of that is probably due to the cap in retail.

Part of that is probably due to the cap, but let's see how it plays out in 2026. It should be good for the retail segment or the flows from retail segment.

Nicolas Vayssières

Okay. In Finland and Denmark last year, you had meaningful product launches with the tax wrappers, the Livrente in Denmark and the endowment product in Finland.

Could we have any update on the customer numbers you've signed up for each product and what's the savings capital you have under each product?

Lars-Åke Norling

In the wrapper, it's around 5,000 accounts and 2 billion in capital, about the same in Livrente. The Livrente is also pulling with it the bank pension, in many cases you cannot transfer your pension unless you can receive both the bank pension and Livrente pension.

Before, we couldn't do that, we lost out a lot of the transfers. With Livrente, we get both Livrente money, but we then get the bank pension transfer money as well.

Overall, net savings in pension in Denmark is up 45% in '25 versus '24, around 5.2 billion, I think, in 2025. We're really happy with the pension development in Denmark.

Of course, we want to see a little bit higher level on the wrapper in Finland, but it's building from below because, as you cannot transfer a wrapper to us without realizing tax, which is an issue. It's mainly been from the ground up in our customer base.

Nicolas Vayssières

Thank you. Just a last one very quickly, because the line cut from the previous person asking: in Germany, the pension product, would you be looking to launch it from very early on in '27 for Nordnet?

Thank you.

Lars-Åke Norling

Yes. It's going to be a very important product.

Nicolas Vayssières

Thank you very much. That's all for me.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Nicolas. Next question comes from Ermin Keric from DNB Carnegie.

Can you hear us, Ermin? Looks like you're unmuted.

Lars-Åke Norling

Blocked by Zoom.

Marcus Lindberg

All right. We can let Ermin try again later.

Let's go to Martin Ekstedt at Handelsbanken.

Martin Ekstedt

Thank you. Can you hear me?

Marcus Lindberg

Yes.

Martin Ekstedt

Excellent. First question: I saw that fund income coming in above expectations seems to be a matter of fund margins in Sweden largely improving 2 basis points between quarters.

Now, from what I can see at least quickly, this represents the largest trend break, a positive trend break for this otherwise declining margin. I think it's been declining since 2022 at least.

Are we seeing a one-off quarter here, or is there more sticky change in fund mix among customers? I think you mentioned in the presentation that there is more of Nordnet's own funds in the mix.

Lars-Åke Norling

I think in Sweden, the uptick there is also that active funds have been become a little bit more popular in quarter four with also a lot of movements in different equities. Also it's probably a little bit uptick from FX also in funds where the customers buy international funds.

I don't think it's going to be a massive shift in margin. Let's see about that, but we're happy to have stabilized and maintained the overall margin in funds in Nordnet overall.

Martin Ekstedt

Understood. There's a currency component to that one as well.

Lars-Åke Norling

It is a currency component. It's smaller than, of course, in trading, but there's a currency component there as well.

Martin Ekstedt

Okay. Then for my second question, just quickly on Germany: 25 million for costs for the German expansion in Q4 is quite a ramp-up from just 32 million for the first nine months of 2025, right?

At least I wasn't personally expecting you to fully reach the 2025 guidance. I know 57 million for the year is below the 60 you guided, but 25 million in Q4 is also clearly a run-rate above what you now guide for '26.

I just wanted to check if the cost is just lumpy or if there were any particular costs?

Lars-Åke Norling

It's

Martin Ekstedt

a little bit,

Lars-Åke Norling

both that we get more, of course, the organization in place, but also that we're doing a lot of development and some one-off costs also related to development in different agreements and things like that. It's going to be a bit lumpy, and also for next year, we guide 80 to 90 million SEK, it's going to be lower first half and higher second half.

Martin Ekstedt

This doesn't represent an acceleration of the plan in any way,

Lars-Åke Norling

but... No, it doesn't.

No.

Martin Ekstedt

Okay. Understood.

That's all from me. Thank you.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Martin. Should we try Ermin again, see if you can unmute?

I guess not. Ermin, feel free to write your question or try to maybe call in.

Let's go to Enrico Bolzoni from J.P. Morgan.

Enrico Bolzoni

Hi. Good morning.

Can you hear me?

Marcus Lindberg

Yeah.

Enrico Bolzoni

Thank you. Thanks for taking my question.

Just one on Germany: you clearly target the breakeven in 2029. Can you give us some color on maybe what sort of intermediate KPI you're going to track and whether you plan to disclose them?

For example, I think about in terms of customer acquisition: do you think you might be able to acquire some customers already from this year, or is it going to be more a 2027 figure, and do you have some sort of numbers in mind that would indicate that you are on track? Thanks.

Lars-Åke Norling

Of course customer growth, net savings, and customer acquisition cost is of course an important metric when we launch. We plan to of course take in some customers this year as well, but it's going to be more growth from 2027.

We don't want to disclose those numbers at this stage, let's see how we guide on that forward. We want to launch first and get going.

Enrico Bolzoni

Thank you. Related to that, can I just ask: you're clearly a new player going into a market that is completely new, the retail investors probably don't know you, don't know your brand or your name.

Can you just talk about in general terms of what is the marketing strategy to become better known with these clients? Is pure marketing?

Is there any other channel that you think you can pursue? I'm just curious from a strategic point of view, what is the approach?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah. We're both of course going to work on the PR track, and we're going to have a savings economist also in Germany, so that concept that's been really successful in the Nordics.

Then, of course, we're going to spend on marketing, but I would say probably less on generic brand marketing, but much more tactical, that we secure that we reach the right target group in the right digital channels. As we don't focus on the whole market to start with.

It's mainly the investor segment, customers with already money that are already on digital platforms or with banks, and we want to attract them over to our platform with a good one-stop shop, a good price, and also a good experience.

Enrico Bolzoni

Thank you.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thanks.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Enrico. Next question comes from Zach Wirth from Autonomous Research.

Zach, can you hear us?

Zachary Wirth

Hi. Good morning.

Can you hear me?

Marcus Lindberg

Yes, we can.

Lars-Åke Norling

Hi.

Zachary Wirth

All right. Sorry about that.

Thanks for taking my questions. I have two.

The first is on private banking. The release said that the focus in 2026 will be on developing the concept further by adding new products and implementing quality improvements.

Can you give a little color on the road map here and what kind of products you think are missing that there's real demand for?

Lars-Åke Norling

I could, but I won't say. For competitive reasons.

I think we work on a few interesting concepts that I think is going to be good. You'll see when it comes.

It's definitely a framework where we're going to continue to launch new functionality over time, both in 2026, but also in the years to come.

Zachary Wirth

Yeah. Understood.

Fair enough. I'll try again with the plan to integrate AI into products, but also on the internal efficiency side.

Can you just talk through sort of what the plans are there or where you see potential?

Lars-Åke Norling

I think probably the most potential is on the product side. I think we're going to see a lot of things happening on the product side with AI.

Far, we have news summaries with AI. It's been really popular, when you open an instrument, you see the summary of all the news that's for that instrument.

We also now just launched AI summaries of quarterly reports. We're looking at a lot of other exciting new features that we can do with AI when it comes to products.

Of course, over time, it can be more advanced, that fully analyze your portfolios and come up with recommendations and things like that, but it's also, of course, a regulatory component to that. I think a lot's going to happen with AI on the product side.

That's very exciting. Then on the efficiency side, I think, of course, you can optimize some operations processes, customer service processes.

I think the main upside for us, if we can increase efficiency in development with agentic AI coding, because our bottleneck is still tech, and we have a long, long wish list of things to do, we are fast today, but if we become even faster, we can launch a lot of exciting stuff over the coming years. We look a lot into agentic AI coding as well.

Zachary Wirth

Is that a project that's underway now? Do you have any kind of timeline around that?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah. We have a specific tech team now enabling the infrastructure for agentic coding.

Of course, we use AI tools in different shapes and forms already in the development or in tech. I think it's a lot to do on efficiency if the AI models continue to evolve exponentially as they've done.

I think it will be possible to make coding more efficient over time.

Zachary Wirth

Great. Thanks very much.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thanks.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you, Zach. Next question comes from Mike Sanderson from Barclays.

Michael Sanderson

Good morning. Just a couple of ones from my end, if that is okay.

You mentioned in your writing about sort of the payouts, and then sort of you think you've got the potential for buybacks. Could you sort of remind me of how you think about when you do buybacks and the timing and scale, given the capacity you want to keep to take on savings?

Then the second question, sorry putting them together, just you did a lot of investment in marketing last year, or talked about investment in marketing, and how do you think you've now got to a level of marketing spend that's recurring, or are there step-ups that you think will need to go with some of these new products, excluding Germany? I sort of understand Germany's obviously very separate.

Within the other existing markets?

Lars-Åke Norling

Yeah. I don't know, Lennart, do you want to take the payout?

Lennart Krän

Yes. We have, as the major constraint for us is not risk-weighted capital, but rather the leverage ratio.

In that, we have the span of 4.0 to 4.5, and that's where we're aiming, of course. We have bought back about 627 million of stocks up to year-end, and continue, and that will be about a billion.

We have plans going forward, but we also have this AT1 that we'll have its first call 26th of November this year. We are a little bit cautious of how those develops, but we are aiming in the long run to get down to the 4.5, 4.0 leverage ratio.

That's where we're aiming at. Then we have to look upon how is the deposit developing and what capacity do we need to be able to have that.

Of course, Germany is one part that we have to adapt to if there's an increase in deposit or not. We will come back to this later on with how we will act further on, but the first one is here to look upon the AT1 that has its first call in November this year.

Lars-Åke Norling

Thank you, Lennart. Also on the marketing, we see positive effects from the marketing that we've been doing now, both in awareness and consideration, not least in our core segment investors.

I think this new level around 105, 110 million SEK in the Nordics is a good level for us also going forward. We don't plan an additional step-up from this level right now.

Michael Sanderson

Thank you.

Marcus Lindberg

Thank you so much. Next question comes from Oliver Carruthers from Goldman Sachs.

Oliver Carruthers

Hi there. Morning, everybody.

Thanks for taking my questions. Three questions for me.

First, on cross-border trading: so if demand stays at a higher level for cross-border trading, any thoughts on how pricing might evolve for this in your markets over time, given it's currently more expensive for your customers? Second question: have you finalized what your pricing strategy is going to look like in Germany yet?

How dependent is that strategy going to be on how the German incumbents shift models in response to the PFOF roll-off later this year?

Lars-Åke Norling

Then

Oliver Carruthers

final question: any early thoughts on prediction markets, which have obviously been growing a lot, particularly in the US, and thoughts around being a distribution player for those markets? Thank you.

Lars-Åke Norling

The cross-border trading, I think it is a, like we discussed, potential also going forward due to the country mix we have, but also that the customers are more diversified now and actually trade more cross-border shares. It of course then boils down to market sentiment in each market.

The fundament is there. When it comes to pricing, we've introduced, as FX accounts on the tax wrappers.

We had it on the depot accounts before. If you trade a lot, you can sign up for an FX account.

That's also appreciated. It's not that many customers that use it, but the ones that trade a lot believe it's beneficial.

We don't see that we need to do anything on pricing except from that. Pricing strategy Germany, of course, we discussed that a lot.

I can't comment on all the specifics there, but we'll see also how the PFOF plays out. The ban is going to be there, but it seems like the platforms and banks in Germany will get some revenue streams from the marketplaces anyway, but in different shape and form, we need to see how that plays out and how we're going to play that game.

Prediction markets, it's interesting. It's really booming in the US.

It's something we look at, but we haven't decided to do anything there at this stage, and it's also I think regulation around that is a bit different in Europe versus the US.

Marcus Lindberg

Okay. Thank you.

There are no more questions on the line, but I have a written question here. So: can you say anything of the typical behavior of the German customer group that's already active in the market and that you're targeting?

Are they trading a lot of equities, ETFs, etc.? Are they owning funds, single stocks?

Is it similar to the behavior you have in your Nordic customer base?

Lars-Åke Norling

For the investor segment where we target, it's fairly similar. They trade a little bit more ETFs than funds.

ETFs has become very popular in Germany mainly due to pricing, because funds has had a very high price normally. I think we can do a lot of good stuff in the fund business in Germany with our products and our pricing.

When it comes to trading, some trade, of course on the primary markets. If you trade a little bit more, you do it on the primary markets.

Some also trade international shares on market maker markets like Tradegate, where you have euro-denominated US equities, for example. That's a little bit different.

The ones that trade a lot and higher trades, they trade on the main markets.

Marcus Lindberg

Great. I think that was the last question for today.

Thanks, everyone, for attending the presentation. Please visit our corporate website, nordnetab.com, or reach out to me if you have any questions.

Thank you so much, and have a nice day.