Operator
Good day, and welcome to the ZTO to announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode.
Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two.
Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sophie Li, Secretary for the company.
Please go ahead.
Sophie Li
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
The company's results and the investor relations presentation were released earlier today and are available on the company's IR website at ir.zto.com. On the call today from ZTO are Mr.
Meisong Lai, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Ms. Huiping Yan, Chief Financial Officer.
Mr. Lai will give a brief overview of the company's business operations and highlights, followed by Ms.
Yan, who will go through the financials and guidance. They will both be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows.
I remind you that this call may contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are based on management's current expectations and current market and operating conditions, and relate to events that involve known or unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the company's control, which may cause the company's actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.
Further information regarding this and other risks, uncertainties, and factors is included in the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required under law. It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr.
Meisong Lai. Mr.
Lai will read through his prepared remarks in their entirety in Chinese before I translate for him in English. Lai Zong, please.
Meisong Lai
大家好。感谢各位参加今天的电话会议。2025年三季度,快递行业增速稳健,中通保持行业领先的服务水平,完成业务量95.7亿件,同比增长9.8%。调整后净利润比去年同期提升5%,达到25.1亿元。三季度,政府提倡反内卷和基层民生保障,引导有序竞争,遏制不合理的价格行为。快递业整体的价格水平企稳回升。中通坚持以服务质量为先的平衡发展战略,积极响应国家对标杆企业的严格要求,进一步完善和落实高质量和高数量协同发展的方针,激励网络合作伙伴降本增收,提升末端揽派能力,成为最后一公里的优选。中通三季度散件业务量同比增长接近50%,非电商散件量的增长保持了高速增长的态势。我们通过优化揽件模式和精细化管理,提升了服务质量和成本效益。在转运效益方面,中通持续推进数字化转型升级,应用标准化成本管控机制,实施更加精准的资源调配和绩效管理。单票车运加分拣成本实现了0.05元的同比下降。进入四季度,行业整体业务量增长有所放缓。尽管宏观经济的复苏存在不确定性和短期的挑战,快递和物流行业的长期发展前景依然是广阔的。我们将持续专注于自身产品和服务能力的建设。下阶段重点推进的工作有以下五个方面:一、坚守服务质量生命线,健全单到单质量管理体系,将平台指数融入绩效考核,实现责任到岗、考核到人,确保服务持续领先;二、深化末端能力建设,推进战点分拣能力升级,深化直链直送与本地商业部署,降低派件成本,提升散件占比与末端收益;三、优化网络政策与激励机制,在保障业务量稳健增长的同时,增强政策透明度与公平性,精准制定激励机制,激发网络内生动力;四、推进全链路降本增效,依托前沿技术和数字化工具优化路由规划,精准配置运力,提升设备投资的科学性和使用效率,加强平台运营各个环节的协同性,赋能网点,持续挖掘运营效益,降低末端揽派成本,提升收益;五、维护网络公平性和基层权益,完善沟通与治理机制,及时解决实际问题,保障网点与业务员的切身利益,维护品牌信任度和网络信心。当前,行业正经历着由高数量向量质并举的战略性变迁。宏观经济之下,低价包裹占比的提升,给中通这样的头部企业带来了特殊的新课题。面对这一结构性变化,中通坚定选择以质拓量、以效取胜的发展路径。我们通过持续的产品升级与精细化管理,在复杂的市场竞争中坚守高质量服务标准,并在合理盈利区间持续拓展业务规模。与此同时,我们的加盟合作伙伴也在经历着白热化价格竞争的锤炼,正积极通过末端能力建设与模式创新,开拓多元化收入来源,持续优化经营效益,进一步增强中通网络的发展韧性与经营信心。竞争是绝大多数行业必然经历的一个过程。面向未来,我们坚信,依托中国经济的深厚基础和蓬勃发展的潜力,中通能够继续传承我们独特的企业文化,借助坚实网络基础、良好的经营能力和稳健的财务实力,在快递和物流行业持续发展中赢得先机,与各方合作伙伴共创价值,用优质的产品与服务造就更多人的幸福。接下来我们请严总给大家介绍财务支部和预期。谢谢大家。
Sophie Li
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining today's conference call.
China's express delivery industry experienced steady growth during the third quarter of 2025 while maintaining its industry-leading service quality. ZTO grew its parcel volume by 9.8% year-over-year to reach 9.57 billion parcels.
Our adjusted net income was 2.51 billion, which rose 5% over the same period last year. During the quarter, government advocated for grassroots interests against involution and promoted more orderly competition by curbing unreasonable low-price practices.
As a result, the overall pricing level across express delivery industry stabilized and began to recover. Adhering to our balanced approach to quality-first growth strategy, ZTO rose up to the higher standards for model enterprises and reinforced the principle designed to achieve coordinated development with both high volume and high quality.
We encouraged our network partners to reduce costs and increase income by strengthening last-mile pickup and delivery capabilities to become the preferred choice of last-mile market. ZTO's retail parcel volume maintained strong growth momentum and grew close to 50% year-on-year.
Through optimizing the pickup model and the refined lean process management, we enhanced both service quality and the cost efficiency. For transit efficiency, ZTO continued to advance the application of smart technology in transforming standardized cost control mechanisms, implementing more effective resource allocation and the performance metrics.
The combined unit cost of transportation and sorting decreased by 5 cents year-on-year. Entering the fourth quarter, overall industry volume growth exhibited some moderation.
While uncertainties and short-term challenges in the macroeconomic recovery still exist, the long-term prospects for the express delivery and logistics industry remains positive. We will stay focused on enhancing our product and service capabilities.
In the next phase, we will prioritize the following five areas of work. First, uphold service quality as our lifeline.
Establish a comprehensive end-to-end quality management service system with integrated platform service indicators for performance evaluations. Assign clear responsibilities and accountabilities, ensuring continued service leadership.
Second, deepen last-mile capability buildout. Expand upgrades of sorting capabilities at outlets.
Further implement direct linkage and incorporate local commercial opportunities, hence reduce delivery costs and enhance last-mile profitability through a higher retail parcel mix. Third, optimize network policies and incentivized mechanisms.
While ensuring steady volume growth, enhance policy transparency and fairness. Implement relevant incentive mechanisms to cultivate intrinsic motivation.
Fourth, advance end-to-end cost efficiency and synergy. Leverage cutting-edge technologies and digitization tools to optimize route planning with appropriate match to transit capacity, more scientifically plan for capital investment and utilization, and improve coordination across all stages of operations.
Help network partners to continuously improve their operational efficiency, reduce last-mile pickup and delivery costs, and achieve higher earnings. Fifth, safeguard fairness and grassroots interests.
Improve communication and governance. Promptly address genuine concerns and resolve real issues.
Protect legitimate rights and the interests of outlets and couriers, and maintain trust and confidence in our brand. The express delivery industry is currently undergoing a strategic shift from prioritizing high volume towards development in both quantity and quality.
Against today's macroeconomic backdrop, the increasing proportion of low-priced parcel presents unique new challenges for top-tier enterprises like ZTO. Facing this structural change, ZTO stays course in prioritizing quality of services and winning through efficiency.
Through continuous product upgrades and refined process management, we navigated a complex market environment, upheld high quality of service standards, and scaled up within reasonable earnings parameters. In the meantime, our network partners, baptized by fierce price competition, are actively innovating and forging last-mile capability and business model with more diverse revenue, better operational efficiency.
With higher confidence in the success of operations, the franchising network is becoming even more resilient. Competition is an inevitable growth phase for majority of industries.
Looking ahead, we firmly believe that by leveraging the vast potential of solid growth foundation and vibrancy of China's economy, ZTO can perpetuate our unique culture, rely on our robust infrastructure, and with our strong operational capabilities and the sound financial strength, we are able to seize opportunities in the ongoing development of the express delivery and logistics industry. Together with all our partners, we can create greater value and bring happiness to more people through our products and services.
Next, let's invite Ms. Yan to present the financial results and guidance.
Huiping Yan
Thank you, Chairman Lai, and thank you, Sophie. Hello to everyone on the call.
As I go through our financials, please note that unless specifically mentioned, all numbers quoted are in RMB and percentage changes refer to year-over-year comparisons. Detailed financial and performance information, unit economics, and cash flow are posted on our website, and I'll go through some of the highlights here.
In the third quarter, in alignment with government's appeal against involution, we reaffirmed our focus on quality, enhancing our core competencies to advance high-quality development. Our parcel volume reached 9.6 billion, which grew 9.8%.
Adjusted net income increased 5% to 2.5 billion. ASP for core express delivery business increased 1.7% or 2 cents, and the breakdown are the following: 18 cents positive contribution from increase in KA volume mainly comprised of headquarter contracted reverse logistics products and services.
This growth was partially offset by a 2 cents decrease due to lower average weight per parcel, and a 14 cents reduction from higher volume incentives. Total revenue increased 11.1% to 11.9 billion as a combined results of volume and price increase.
Total cost of revenue was 8.9 billion, which increased 21.4% as a blended result of significant increase in costs associated with non-e-commerce volume relative to the rate of decrease in costs for e-commerce volume. From the overall unit cost perspective, core express delivery business increased 9 cents to 91 cents.
Combined unit cost of sorting and transportation decreased 7.7% or 5 cents for the quarter, benefiting from economies of scale and various productivity initiatives. Specifically, unit cost for line-haul transportation decreased 11.5% to 34 cents thanks to enhanced route planning in conjunction with optimizing fleet operations.
Unit sorting cost remained stable at 25 cents due to improved labor efficiency through automation, offset by higher cost from new facilities that commenced operations in the quarter. Unit KA cost increased 14 cents, which is in line with KA volume growth.
Gross profit decreased 11.4% to 3 billion, and gross margin rate dropped 6.3 points to 24.9%. SG&A excluding SBC grew 16.2% to 633 million.
SG&A expenses excluding SBC as a percentage of revenue slightly climbed to 5.3% compared to 5% in the previous quarter last year—in the same quarter last year, primarily due to higher depreciation and amortization expenses. Income from operations decreased 15.4% to 2.4 billion, and associated margin dropped 6.3%—points to 20.3%.
Operating cash flow was 3.2 billion for the quarter, representing a 3.2% increase. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 4.2% to 3.6 billion.
Capital expenditure for Q3 totaled 1.2 billion, and we anticipate our annual CapEx expenses in 2025 to be 5.5 to 6 billion. Now moving on to our guidance.
With visibility into the final quarter of the year, we are adjusting down the annual volume guidance to be in the range of 38.2 to 38.7 billion parcels, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8%. Volume is critical to a scale-leveraged business, and partner network stability is the foundation for sustainable long-term growth of our company.
As macro environment continues to evolve and industry dynamics shifts towards more orderly competition, we are confident in our ability to execute the overall corporate strategy, as well as tackling challenges in the near term. This concludes our prepared remarks.
Operator, please open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your telephone keypad.
If your question has been addressed and you'd like to remove yourself from queue, please press star then two. Once again, that is star then one if you have a question.
Our first question today comes from Ronald Keung with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Ronald Keung
谢谢赖总、严总、Sophie。对,那想问两个提问。第一,就我们看到这个三季度大家的各个各个玩家的这个增速大概也有点converge,那大家增速差不多。那现在这个价格也开始稳定下来,那我们应该怎么想这个行业的格局和明年的这个展望?尤其是这个大家的這個份额虽然开始稳定下来,那我们怎么看长期整个快递行业的这个行业格局?对。第二个就想问这个我们说我们要变成一个overall logistics,logistics service provider,就这个整个整个物流的这个更加integrated这个服务。那想听一下我们除了快递外,其它的物流服务,高端的这个快递和全站的这个物流服务,这边我们还有什么新的一些战略?对。那我翻译一下。Thank you, management. Two questions.
One is about the industry structure and outlook, given that we've seen growth convergence and pricing that stabilized temporarily, but how should we think of the the year ahead and the long-term market structure as we're still in a relatively fragmented industry landscape? Second is about integrated logistics opportunities.
Besides the express delivery, what are we doing on the higher end or overall supply chain logistics offering to provide a more integrated service to to your customers? Thank you.
Meisong Lai
你好。这个,你第一个问题就是行业格局的问题。这个行业格局一定是 你既有规模、 服务质量好、 这个效益明显、 成本有优势,那肯定会 这个占据更大的市场份额。也就是说,肯定做好自己的事情,然后强者肯定是更强。 那第二个,这个战略综合物流。中通一直 这个遵循这个 看未来做现在的事情。
那我们第一呢,要做好我们自己的主业,就把快递主业做强做大。 这个质量优先, 这个规模 也要上去。
这个做好 这个质量、 数量跟利润的平衡。 这个总部的三大指标。第二呢,就是处理好 中心站点和业务员的利益分配。
那快递只是物流的一部分。 这个中国其实物流的市场更大,所以我们快递主要是拓C, 这个服务广大的消费群体和电商。
那更主要的是我们要在大陆大物流方面发力。那我们 现在呢,中通除了有快递以外,那我们生态圈里还有快运、冷链、仓,包括我们的托C。 就是 我们相信未来的竞争一定是综合物流的竞争, 是全方位的竞争。所以 我们不仅要服务电商,还要更要服务制造业,服务现代农业、商业。这是第二条曲线。第三条曲线呢,就是 这个产品优势的发挥。比如说末端产品优势,如何从运送包裹到制造包裹。
对中通来讲呢,要把握好 从领先优势 到生态优势,再到 这个产品优势的新局。谢谢。
Huiping Yan
Thank you very much for your question. The very first question is really related to the competitive and industry dynamics and where it's going.
We believe that the scale and better services, as well as higher efficiency, cost-effectiveness will lead to greater opportunities. We have continuously focused on becoming the best of ourselves because the future belongs to the stronger ones.
Looking into the future, we, again, will continue to focus on now as we look forward. There are several things that we are continuously focusing on.
The first one is to strengthen the competitive advantage of our core businesses, and there are three perspectives or three areas that we will be paying attention to. The first one is to strengthen the connectivity or relationship between the outlets, the couriers with our sortation center.
It's mainly for allocation of interest, allocation of roles and responsibility as well as rewards across these all three points with better equity and equality. The second part is express delivery is mainly serving the 2C consumers.
We, leveraging the installed base, will have an opportunity to bring solutions for greater logistic market. Currently, we have express delivery, we have LTL business, cold chain, in-warehouse cloud operation, as well as last-mile outlets.
We believe the competitive landscape will shift towards comprehensive capability focused. We will not only serve 2C, we will also serve modern manufacturing, agriculture, as well as more specific scenarios, such as bringing products and services from factory directly to consumers, bringing agriculture products out of the field directly onto people's dinner table.
For all these specific scenarios, we will participate with higher quality, higher efficiency, and this will lead to a differentiated competitive advantage in the future for us.
Ronald Keung
谢谢赖总、严总。
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Qianlei Fan with Morgan Stanley.
Please go ahead.
Qianlei Fan
Thank you. 谢谢赖总、严总、Sophie给我提问的机会。那我两个小问题。第一个小问题是想提问一下这个反内卷政策的一些后续的影响,以及对后面市场价格的一个预期。那尤其是我们观察到其实公司四季度这个件量的指引的这个增长范围还是比较的宽。然后想提提问一下,就是说在这个比较宽的这个范围的指引背后是怎么样的考虑,基于怎么样的市场的动态。以及刚刚严总有提到说也考虑了一些challenges in the near term,那这些near term的challenges到底有没有什么具体的细节可以分享?这是第一个小问题。那第二个小问题也是最近市场比较关心的,在几周以前有一个这个来自监管的一个公告,说跟中通也是有一个约谈。那想请教一下这个约谈的主要的情况以及会不会有什么后续的影响。那让我翻译一下我的问题。
Thank you, management, for taking my questions. I have two questions.
The first one is about the anti-involution. Do you have any comments on the anti-involution's potential impacts, specifically on the outlook for market pricing?
We have noticed that the company's guidance on volume for fourth quarter of this year implies a quite wide range of growth outlook. What's the consideration behind this outlook?
Specifically, Ms. Yan just mentioned there are some considerations of like near-term challenges.
What's what's these near-term challenges and what's what's the outlook for next year? My second question is about a recent news talking about that regulators had a conversation with ZTO's management on its network management.
Is there any details that could be shared and is there any potential impacts we should be expecting? Thank you.
Meisong Lai
谢谢你的提问。 你第一个提问是反内卷。
自今年8月份起,快递行业推行的反内卷政策已逐步在全国大部分地区落实,推动价格理性回归。 这个缓解了年初以来因过度价格竞争导致的行业压力,有效引导行业回归健康有序的高质量发展轨道。
预计这一趋势 有持续性。 这随着反内卷持续政策的持续发力,行业竞争正从高数量发展转向高质量发展,更加注重服务品质和持续可持续增长。
预计观察期结束之后,市场价格将维持在成本线以上,竞争趋于良性。 我们预计监管机构将继续鼓励 优胜发展、规范市场行为的思路。一方面,政策会继续鼓励企业通过技术、管理和服务创新来提升核心竞争力;另一方面,对于可能损害用户权益、影响末端稳定的行为,监管也会保持高度关注,并适时介入,以保障整个行业的长期健康发展。
中通作为头部企业,深刻理解并积极响应这一监管导向。我们视之为重要的发展机遇,将主动承担更多示范引领责任:一是持续加大在自动化、数字化等领域的投入,做强自身硬实力;二是在经营中更加关注基层网点和快递员的权益与反馈,确保网络的稳定与健康;三是将合规经营提升到战略高度,致力于 成立行业高质量发展的标杆。 这个第二个问题, 这个也感谢大家对中通的关心关注。就是 我们11月28号,由 监管部门约谈中通。
那监管约谈和相关独立个案核心都指向了同一个行业趋势:中国快递行业正在从高速发展全面转向高质量发展。 这要求行业所有的参与者,尤其是龙头企业,必须在 追求业务规模的同时,将服务品质、合规经营与网络健康放在更优先的位置。
这些事件在短期内对我们管理精细度 的一次重要提醒和压力测试。公司高度重视这些反馈,并已将其转化为内部优化升级的契机。我们正在全面审视并进一步强化在服务质量、末端稳定及合作伙伴支持等方面的体系建设。 长期来看,我们相信,主动适应并引领这一高质量转型,不仅符合监管与市场的期望,更能构筑起中通更持久、更健康的竞争优势。这有助于我们吸引更优质的客户与合作伙伴,实现长期的可持续发展。谢谢。
Huiping Yan
Thank you very much for your question. The sustainability of the anti-excessive competition policy, I think was related to your first question.
Since August of this year, the anti-involution policy has been progressively rolled out across most regions nationwide, aiming at rational recovery in pricing. This policy directly address the pressure caused by excessive price competition since earlier this year, and it calls for the industry to turn towards orderly competition and healthy development.
We expect this trend to continue and the effort will also continue to take effect. As the anti-involution guidance continues to take effect, industry overall attention is shifting from high-volume growth focused to combined effort in high-quality development as well as high volume, with greater emphasis on service quality and sustainable long-term viability.
Once the assessment period concludes, we think market rates are expected to stabilize above at least the cost levels, promoting healthier competition. We also believe that the regulatory focus will continue to advocate high-quality development and disciplined market practice.
On one hand, policies will continue to encourage companies to build competitive advantages through innovation, technology, effective managerial skills, and services. On the other hand, regulators will remain vigilant and intervene as needed to cease practices that could harm grassroots interests or disrupt social stability, protecting sustainable long-term growth.
As an industry leader, ZTO's quality-first and balanced development strategy is fully aligned and we are engaged with the regulatory guidance. We view it as a growth opportunity and will take proactive steps to provide model effect for the sector.
First, we will continue with investments in automation and digitization to strengthen our operational capabilities. Second, we will pay close attention to constructive feedback from outlets and couriers to strengthen network stability.
Third, we will pay strategic focus to provide benchmark effect for higher quality development for the industry. As to the recent consultation by relevant government agencies, we believe that the recent regulation consultation is consistent with the anti-involution policies as well as our intention.
It also is related to certain isolated cases arose from the network complaints. The express delivery industry is shifting from high-volume growth to high-quality development at the same time, and this is the overall guidance with anti-involution policy as well as this specific consultation.
It requires all participants, especially ZTO as a leading player in this industry, to provide exemplified model effect. In the short term, we think that these consultation events serve as an important reminder for us, as well as we believe stress tests for our managerial attention and capabilities.
We have taken the feedback constructively and seriously, and are treating it as a catalyst for further improvements internally. We have thoroughly reviewed our system in feedback, as well as providing greater visibility and timely feedback in addressing specific issues.
In the long run, we believe that proactively embracing and leading this high-quality transformation not only is consistent with our regulatory and market expectations, but also builds—
Operator
Pardon me, everybody. This is the conference operator.
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We've reconnected the speaker location. Please proceed with your answer.
Huiping Yan
Thank you. I'll rewind just slightly where we got cut off.
In the longer term, we believe that proactively embracing and leading the high-quality transformation will not only be consistent with the regulatory intention and the market expectations, but also build a more robust and sustainable collaborative model for us to work with all constituents in our industry and in our end-to-end businesses. This will help us attract higher-quality customers and partners, ensuring longer and sustainable growth.
Thank you for your question.
Operator
Yes, ma'am. Our next question today comes from Tianxuan Hou with UBS.
Please go ahead.
Tianxuan Hou
哎,赖总、严总、Sophie总好。哎,谢谢接受我的提问。我这边有三个小问题,其实主要是关于这个业务量的啦。因为我们注意到这个最近一段时间,这个业务量增速放缓还是比较明显的,就是整个行业。所以想跟你们请教一下说,这个背后的原因主要是什么?是不是还是这个主要是跟这个近期这个价格的修复有一定关系啊?然后第二个问题是想看看这个你们对明年的这个业务量增速是怎么判断的?包括这个在如果业务量增速是这个比如说放缓的比较明显的话,那这个行业格局会出现什么新的变化?是这些问题。Let me translate for myself. Thank you, Mr.
Lai, Ms. Yan, and Sophie, for taking my question.
My question is more about volume. As we noticed that the industry has experienced more or less notable volume slowdown recently, just curious about the underlying drivers behind, is that more related to the pricing recovery recently?
Also, how should we think about the volume growth for next year? Also any potential changings in competitive landscape or competition dynamics under a volume slowdown going forward?
Thank you so much.
Meisong Lai
谢谢你的提问啊。你的三个问题,一个是增速放缓,第二个是明年的增速,那还有一个是格局发生变化。 近期确实啊,这个我们10月份刚刚官方公布我们的增长 个位数,这个是 行业增长个位数,这个是 很长时间没看到这个情况。这行业增速放缓,我认为主要在这个价格的推动下,这个反内卷的政策推动下,价格有所上涨。这一变化对部分价格高度敏感的低价电商造成一定影响。行业低价件占比下降,那这个是主要影响。就是你包邮几块钱包邮的,本来赚的稍微有一点点利润的,因为你的快递费涨上来了,所以这部分件在减少。
总体来看,行业件量结构正逐步向更健康的方向调整。具备优质和成熟产品体系的快递龙头企业将更具备竞争优势。就这个放缓其实对原来这个低价件占比低的這個快递企业,其实它的占比会提升。 明年我们预计业务量将维持健康的正常水平。就是 这个肯定 这个20%左右啊,15%、16%这个大概率不太可能,所以我预计总是在10%左右吧。
行业将告别单纯以量为导向的发展阶段,逐步转向高质量发展。市场资源将更多流向注重服务与效益的企业。这个 趋势 这个格局呢,行业格局的未来分化将在监管持续引导与企业自律规范运行下共同推进,迈向健康 竞争的新阶段。谢谢。
Huiping Yan
Yes, indeed. Thank you for your question.
We have noticed a long-absent decline or deceleration in the industry. The recent announced October average growth of the industry is low single digit, and that's been not seen for a long period of time.
We think that the recent deceleration in the industry growth is primarily due to the price increase driven by the anti-involution policy. This adjustment, where overall logistic price has increased, and has a greater impact on low-margin and highly price-sensitive e-commerce merchants, resulting in a decline in that segment of the parcel.
Overall, the sector's parcel volume mix is shifting again towards a better structure with higher economics. Leading express delivery companies with stronger service capabilities and well-established product portfolios are poised to regain their competitive position.
In other words, for those that typically gained volume from lower-priced packages will be impacted greater, negatively. Looking ahead to next year, we expect the industry volume growth to perhaps stabilize most likely to stay around 10%.
The sector is shifting away from a singular focus on volume growth towards higher quality as well as quantity development. With market resources increasingly gravitate towards service quality and operational efficiency, the future reshaping of the competitive landscape will be driven by ongoing regulatory influence alongside corporate self-discipline and standardized operations, paving the way for a healthier competitive landscape and sustainable long-term growth.
Tianxuan Hou
哎,谢谢赖总、严总,非常清楚。
Operator
Thank you. Our next question today comes from Lujing Lin with CPX Securities.
Please go ahead.
Lujing Lin
好的。那个赖总、严总、Sophie总,各位领导上午好。我是中信证券交通运输物流胡世敏团队的林鲁静。那么也非常感谢管理层给我这个提问的机会。那我这边可能还是主要想请教两个小问题。第一个是关于这个成本端的。那我们能看到其实2025年我们各家快递公司布置的这个产能是相对来说比较正常的。那正如刚刚赖总也提到,其实行业竞争也正在从高数量向高质量去演变。那如果明年反内卷持续在价格相对高的一个位置下,可能会导致就是件量可能增速没有我们之前预期的或者说年初的预期高。那这样会不会带来一个成本端的一个压力?那作为结果来看,我们怎么去展望2026年的成本端更合适?然后第二个问题是这个关于局部地区的价格竞争的。那我们也关注到其实产粮区在设置这个底价之后,轻小件的这个量和占比可能会下降,那是否会导致我们说价格竞争的重心向更高公斤段去进行转移?那接下来请让我翻译一下我的问题。So, first of all, thank you for taking my questions. I guess my first question would go with the cost reduction.
If the anti-involution policy continues in 2026, I'm considering that the industry CapEx of 2025 would be actually set for a higher growth rate in expectation. Would this possibly bring any challenges in our cost reduction if a lower parcel growth shown in 2026?
As a result, could we be shed some lights on the cost improvement in 2026? The second question would be regarding to the competition structure.
As we can see that after setting price for some parcels in the major markets, for example like in Guangdong, Yiwu, and and other province, would this lead to some shift of the focus on the price competition from the lower kilogram range to a higher one? I guess that's my question.
Thank you.
Meisong Lai
谢谢你的提问。 这个成本其实 一直是我们中通非常注重的一方面。
我们过去在这个产能投资方面,第一阶段我们中通的在转运的成本优势在整个行业是非常明显的。随着这几年各家公司在基础产能、转运仓的投资,其实 设备、车辆 大家都差不多,用的都是甩挂车,所以转运的成本会更加接近。 我们会在 我自己预期的就是明年 它总的成本 还是会下降,就转运端,但是会缩窄。
但总的成本它是分四个方面,除了转运以外还有收派。 所以全链路的这个成本,我们中通都在 这个今年包括网点的三加一工作, 成效都是非常明显的。
所以对中通来讲,就是 我们会继续加强数字化能力建设、智能化的投资, 以及合理的 分配好 各个 段的 收、转、运、派每个段的 这个成本的优化。 这个空间还是有的。
我们有信心继续在成本方面在行业保持领先。 第二个,你讲的是竞争的问题。
那确实 是 你说的一样,就是随着反内卷的推进,价格的回升, 这个轻小件、低客单价件 这个占比在减少。 那我们会根据各个地方的产能 配置相应的资源。
比如说中西部地区, 我们会 根据仓位的调配, 我们会适当地 就是 在公斤段上面做一些调整。 总体来讲呢,我们有信心就是 在成本端、 在各个环节就我们还是会平衡好 这个份额、 质量 跟利润的三大平衡。
谢谢。 在这竞争优势,我们相信我们还是 这个 还是要把握领先优势到 这个更加 拓宽的领先优势这样迈进。
谢谢。
Huiping Yan
Thank you very much for your question. Yes, ZTO has always been focusing on our cost efficiency.
In the first development of our company, because of our attention in capacity and infrastructure development, our competitive cost advantage is very apparent. Then, as the industry progress, you saw that various other peers have also invested in facilities, equipment, as well as transportation capabilities.
You saw that our competitive cost advantage across the industry is becoming more close to each other. We think that the focus now is not just in transit and line-haul because out of the four segments of the end-to-end services, we have collection as well as delivery.
For the total end-to-end cost reduction or cost efficiencies, we have initiated work in, for example, the 3+1 effort, so as to continue to improve the cost equation across the whole process. We've invested in technology, invested in higher efficiency in matching the capacity as well as the demand for capacity.
We have helped our network partners to improve their automation capabilities as well to improve their efficiency, allowing, for example, the couriers to have more time in focusing on their delivery work, at the same time reducing the outlets' overall last-mile cost. We do believe that with the existing operational layout, the cost advantage will eventually diminishing.
However, with increasing attention to the end-to-end, all segments' coordination and integration in reducing cost, improve efficiency, not only the transit and sortation segment of our business will continue to lead in cost as well cost efficiency, as well as our network partners will gain advantage in becoming the lowest cost in the last mile as well as the pickup. We hence have high confidence in maintaining our cost leadership going forward.
Then the second part of your question relates to what we have observed going forward in the smaller packages becoming lesser component of the total volume. We will, based on the capacity layout of our whole network, appropriately allocate and matching the resources.
For example, in the middle and western part of our network, we should be able to gravitate more towards some policies for higher weight. From overall perspective, we believe we do have high confidence in managing the policy in addressing this shift in the mix of our volume.
We, again, will continue to focus on our balanced approach in developing volume, scale, and the reasonable profit level, all under the premises of high quality of product and services going forward.
Meisong Lai
好,谢谢。
Huiping Yan
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, and our—
Huiping Yan
We believe—
Operator
Oops, apologies. Please proceed.
Huiping Yan
We believe this will conclude our call for today. Again, thank you, everybody, for joining us, and we look forward to have further discussions with you offline.
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