Textron Inc.

Textron Inc.

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 30, 2026

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jale, and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Textron First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press *, followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad.

If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press *1 again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Hegstrom, VP of Investor Relations.

You may begin.

Scott Hegstrom

Thanks, Jale, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention that we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today.

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press releases. On the call today, we have Lisa Atherton, our Chief Executive Officer, and David Rosenberg, our Chief Financial Officer.

Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Atherton

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

Today is an incredibly exciting and important day for Textron. Our first quarter results highlight a very strong start to the year.

We generated $3.7 billion in revenue, representing 12% growth for the quarter. We also grew segment profit in the quarter by 10% to $320 million.

This reflects strong performance across each of our A&D businesses, including robust commercial order activity at both Aviation and Bell. We also generated $1.45 of adjusted EPS, up 13% from a year ago.

Turning now to slide five, in addition to announcing our first quarter results today, we also announced our intent to separate our Industrial segment from our A&D businesses. This is a consequential and exciting step in our evolution, establishing New Textron as a pure-play A&D company aligned to its core franchises of Textron Aviation, Bell, and Textron Systems.

In terms of structure, we intend to explore multiple paths to affect this planned separation, including a sale of the Industrial businesses or a tax-free spin-off into a standalone, publicly traded company. We will work through alternatives on the approach over the coming quarters and are targeting a completion of the separation within 12 to 18 months.

In the interim, we will continue to operate in the normal course of business. Turning to slide six, we believe these actions will drive long-term value for our shareholders.

First and foremost, this establishes New Textron as a pure-play A&D company. Each of our A&D franchises are aligned with highly attractive end markets with tremendous opportunities in front of them.

For New Textron, this separation also enhances clarity around our capital allocation and investments, as well as our strategic flexibility. The MV-75 Cheyenne program is a perfect example.

We are pulling forward our investment as we support the Army's acceleration of the program, which is aligned with our long-term growth strategy. As for Industrial, these same principles apply.

The business will benefit from a tailored capital allocation and new strategic flexibility. The investment and growth in opportunities, such as Pentatonic, Allegro, and PACE Technologies, are good examples of this.

While we've considered variations of this in the past, now is the right time as both our A&D and Industrial businesses are well-positioned for the future. In A&D, Textron Aviation is in a very strong position, having increased its backlog by more than four times since pre-COVID, from $1.7 billion in 2019 to $8 billion at the end of this quarter.

Bell is advancing rapidly on the MV-75 Cheyenne and will soon move into prototype deliveries. Textron Systems is also showing solid growth across programs of record, such as Ship-to-Shore and at ATAC.

In Industrial, Kautex continues to perform well, and Textron Specialized Vehicles is operating from a stronger footing following last year's Powersports divestiture. Overall, Textron is well-positioned to pursue the separation of our A&D and Industrial businesses.

Turning to slide seven, New Textron would have approximately $12 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in segment profit as a pure-play company. Aviation is a leader in each of these segments and continues to see healthy demand and utilization across its portfolio.

Bell is at the forefront of an outsized growth stage as the MV-75 Cheyenne program ramps. The business is positioned to significantly increase its revenue as we move from development to production over the next few years and benefit from the Army's planned production run of over 25 years.

Systems has compelling growth drivers across several areas, including advanced materials for hypersonic applications, shipbuilding, manned and unmanned air, land, and sea vehicles. The Trump administration's recently proposed fiscal year 2027 budget that calls for $1.5 trillion in defense spending would be a strong tailwind for the industry, providing increased visibility and stability across our defense offerings.

Moving to slide eight, the separation significantly improves the financial profile for Textron. New Textron would have top-line growth 150 basis points higher, segment profit margin would be 120 basis points higher, and our strong backlog of $19.2 billion is 100% related to the A&D businesses.

On page nine, we see New Textron's A&D franchises, each of which excels at turning advanced aerospace and defense capabilities into practical advantages for our customers and their missions. Some of these key offerings include the Citation Latitude, the number one best-selling midsize business jet; the recently certified Citation Ascend; and the upcoming Beechcraft Denali.

The Beechcraft King Air franchise is the best-selling turboprop in history. The MV-75 Cheyenne, flying twice as far and twice as fast, is a fundamental step-function for military aviation.

The Ship-to-Shore Connector, the ATAC programs of record, and our unique advanced material capabilities, which were most recently seen in action with the Artemis mission around the moon, are core to the Sentinel program. These all leverage our world-class engineering capabilities across design, test, certification, and build with a long track record of innovation.

Underlying these offerings, we have a large installed base which supports a robust aftermarket business that has experienced steady growth over the last few years. Textron Aviation has built approximately 250,000 aircraft in its history and has the largest installed base in general aviation, nearly four times the next largest.

Bell has an installed base of approximately 13,000 commercial and military aircraft. These significant installed bases drive an attractive aftermarket business that represents over 30% of New Textron revenue.

We are very excited about how this positions New Textron to drive value going forward. On the military side, Textron sits where aerospace precision meets defense urgency, and this is exactly where our future is being built.

As we continue to scale the MV-75 Cheyenne program and move toward production lots, we expect that the revenue and margin profile will follow. Beyond MV-75, we are well-positioned on new opportunities that can leverage significant technology from the MV-75, like the US Marine Corps Future Attack-Reconnaissance program and DARPA's X-76 X-Plane.

Flight School Next, a new program to train Army aviators at Fort Rucker, for which we are competing, is also positioned as a potential growth opportunity for Bell, leveraging our proven 505 helicopter. Systems is anchored by strong programs of record with the growth drivers to include Ship-to-Shore, ATAC, and Sentinel.

In addition, the ARV pre-production contract advances a future growth opportunity for the business. The defense spending environment provides a very favorable backdrop for the longer term, where our offerings are very well-positioned.

As this relates to the Textron Aviation and Bell commercial businesses, we are in a great place with the investments we have made over the last decade. Our product portfolio is second to none.

Textron Aviation has a proven track record of clean-sheet development programs like the Latitude, the Longitude, SkyCourier, and soon to be the Denali. We have also been very successful at upgrades like the recent Gen2s and Ascend, as well as the upcoming Gen3s for the light jets.

At Bell, the 525 will be the first commercial fly-by-wire helicopter. Our sizable backlog illustrates the market demand for our products is significant and continuing to grow.

Looking ahead, we are focused on increasing our operational efficiency and performance to drive growth and enhance profitability. We will do this by reallocating some of our R&D investment into our supply chains and factories.

To be clear, there are no silver bullets there, but it is where we will be putting our focus. Turning now to Industrial on slide 10, this is a $3-plus billion business with strong operations, well-established brands, leading market positions, and real growth drivers.

We believe it will thrive independent from New Textron. It is composed of Kautex and Specialized Vehicles.

Kautex is a Tier 1 auto supplier. Its primary product line is fuel systems for the automotive industry.

Kautex has also built a meaningful position in hybrid fuel tanks, which is a growing part of the industry. The Pentatonic battery enclosure business supports EV and hybrid platforms, including the Rivian R1 and a major European OEM start of production planned for 2027.

Its Allegro cleaning systems is another growth platform focused on solutions to clean autonomous vehicle cameras and sensors. Specialized Vehicles is anchored by the E-Z-GO golf cart business.

E-Z-GO is one of the most recognizable brands in golf. Specialized Vehicles also includes personal transportation vehicles, Ransomes Jacobsen turf equipment, Cushman vehicles, and TUG ground support equipment.

This business stands to benefit from near-term growth driven by the lease renewal cycle and market recovery. Overall, our Industrial businesses have well-established brands, product offerings, and strong market positions.

Before I turn it over to David to give you an update on our first quarter results, I'll quickly highlight a few of our achievements in the quarter, starting with Aviation on slide 12. We got off to a strong start to the year with 37 jet deliveries and 35 commercial turboprop deliveries.

These are both up nicely from a year ago as we continue to drive throughput in our factories. We also saw strong aftermarket performance, which resulted in 10% growth in aftermarket revenues.

In terms of market conditions, order activity continues to be healthy as we grew our backlog in the quarter, while also delivering double-digit growth in jets and commercial turboprops. Some notable wins for the team include Luxaviation, a European jet operator, placed a fleet order in the first quarter, which will bring its total to nine Latitudes, supporting its charter operations across Europe.

An order from Belgium's Special Operations Forces for five SkyCouriers, marking our first military order for the aircraft and highlighting the utility of the SkyCourier, not only in the commercial market, but also in defense and special missions applications. From an industry perspective, GAMA's recently released 2025 annual report underscores Textron Aviation's leadership in general aviation as we once again topped the industry in total business jet deliveries, total turbine aircraft deliveries, and total turboprop deliveries.

Moving to Bell on slide 13, the Army has announced the name of the MV-75 aircraft as the Cheyenne. This underscores the continued commitment by the Army and marks a pivotal moment for the program.

All subsystem critical design reviews, or CDRs, have been executed, with the exception of completing the weapon system CDR later this summer. The Army is preparing for tiltrotor technology with support from the V-22, helping the Army's 101st Airborne in training exercises to develop the tactics, techniques, and procedures to take full advantage of the additional range and speed.

Bell's progress is supported by a series of investments Textron is making to support successful development and acceleration of production. As I mentioned earlier, the Trump administration's 2027 budget calls for a significant increase in defense spending.

As this relates to the MV-75 Cheyenne, the Future Years Defense Program, or FYDP, calls for $2.3 billion of funding for 2027, scaling to $3.8 billion in FY '31 across research, development, test, and evaluation, as well as procurement. The procurement budget also shows quantities of eight units in FY '28, scaling to 12, then 20, then 27 in FY '31, consistent with the Secretary of the Army's direction to accelerate the program.

Regarding near-term funding for the MV-75 program, the Army has informed us that it is actively pursuing additional funding to support the acceleration profile for the remainder of the government fiscal year '26. This funding aligns with the Army's directive last summer to accelerate the program, which occurred after their FY '26 budget request was submitted.

We remain confident in the Army's commitment to securing this funding, as evidenced by the ongoing process and the strong funding request in the recently released FYDP. During the quarter, Bell completed the critical design review on the DARPA X-Plane program, which is now called the X-76.

Bell will now begin building a brand-new X-Plane with first-of-its-kind stop-fold technology. Bell was also recently down-selected to the fourth and final phase of the Flight School Next competition.

As part of this phase, Bell conducted flight simulator and digital twin demonstrations at Redstone Arsenal. We expect the Army to select a winner for the competition later this summer.

Turning to slide 14, Systems also continues to grow its business. They generated double-digit growth in the quarter and continued to make progress on new pursuits.

Earlier this month, Textron Systems received a pre-production development award from the US Marine Corps for its Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle, or ARV program. This $450 million award will include delivery of 16 vehicles, three systems integration labs, and four blast hulls.

Textron Systems was also awarded a prototype agreement from the US Army for the Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance program, or LASSO. Under the prototype agreement, Systems will deliver a loitering munitions system and demonstrate it to the Army.

As you can see on slide 15, both Kautex and Textron Specialized Vehicles are executing very well and generating improving financial results. The segment had positive organic growth in the quarter, and Kautex secured its largest award to date for its hybrid plastic fuel tank offerings.

Overall, we had a very strong start to the year, and I'll now pass it over to Dave to provide some more details on the financials.

David Rosenberg

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 18 of the earnings presentation, we had a strong start to the year, with revenues in the quarter of $3.7 billion, up 12% or $389 million from last year's first quarter.

Segment profit in the quarter was also strong at $320 million, up 10% or $30 million from the first quarter of 2025. During this year's first quarter, adjusted net income was $1.45 per share, compared to $1.28 per share in last year's first quarter.

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions reflected a use of cash of $228 million, compared to a use of $158 million in last year's first quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares, returning $168 million in cash to shareholders.

Before we get into the segments, I'd like to remind you that we realigned the Textron eAviation segment's business across Textron Aviation, Textron Systems, and Corporate at the beginning of this year, eliminating Textron eAviation as a separate reporting segment. The results here reflect that realignment for 2026 and for the 2025 comparison period on a recast basis.

Now let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. On slide 19, revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.5 billion were up $269 million or 22% from the first quarter of 2025.

Aircraft revenue in the quarter was $954 million, up $221 million or 30% from a year ago. This was driven by volume and mix as we increased Citation jet deliveries from 31 to 37 and commercial turboprop deliveries from 30 to 35.

Aftermarket revenue in the quarter was $531 million, up $48 million or 10% from a year ago. Segment profit was $154 million in the quarter, up $32 million compared with the first quarter of 2025.

This represents a profit margin of 10.4%. We also continued to see solid order flow and customer demand across our product lines, ending the quarter with $8 billion of backlog, up $276 million from the end of 2025.

Looking at Bell, revenues of $1.1 billion were up $87 million or 9% from the first quarter of 2025. Military revenues were $795 million, up $161 million or 25%, driven by growth on the MV-75 Cheyenne program, partially offset by reduced revenue on V-22 production and on military sustainment programs.

Commercial revenues were $275 million, down $74 million, reflecting lower volume and mix. Segment profit of $72 million was down $18 million from a year ago, primarily reflecting an unfavorable impact from the mix of military programs and lower commercial volume and mix.

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.6 billion. At Textron Systems, we had a good start to the year, with revenues of $338 million, up $39 million or 13% from last year's first quarter.

Revenue growth was driven primarily by higher volume on the Ship-to-Shore program and military training programs provided by ATAC, partially offset by lower net volume on other programs. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $3.6 billion, an increase of $255 million in the quarter.

Segment profit was $42 million in the first quarter, which generated strong segment profit margin of 12.4%. Looking at Industrial, revenues were $786 million, down $6 million from last year's first quarter.

Textron Specialized Vehicles revenue was $300 million, down $42 million, largely reflecting a $55 million impact from the divestiture of the Powersports business in 2025. Kautex revenues were $486 million, up $36 million or 8% from a year ago, primarily due to a favorable impact of $20 million from foreign exchange rate fluctuations and higher volume and mix.

On an organic basis, revenues at Industrial were up $29 million or 4%, given the first quarter of last year still included the Powersports business. Segment profit of $40 million was up $10 million from the first quarter of 2025, largely due to manufacturing efficiencies.

Finance segment revenues were $16 million and profit was $12 million in the first quarter of 2026, as compared to segment revenues of $16 million and profit of $10 million in the first quarter of 2025. With that, I will turn it back to Lisa for closing remarks.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks, Dave. As we wrap up, slide 21 just highlights a few of the many attributes that make New Textron a compelling pure-play aerospace and defense business.

We have the best-in-class brands and best-in-class products with leading segment positions. I also want to highlight that we have the people in place to maximize our future with a deep bench of technical expertise and a track record of innovation and execution at scale.

This concludes our prepared remarks, and we are happy to open the line now for questions.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions.

If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, simply press *1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press *1 again.

If you are called upon to ask a question and are listening via a loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Your first question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

Your line is open.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Good morning, Lisa and Dave. The industrial separation has been a long time coming.

Can you maybe provide a little bit more on what led to the decision, why now? Was it just the growth in the MV-75 portfolio, the Cheyenne, and how you see that?

If you could elaborate. Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks, Sheila. Good morning.

Hey, look, it's the right answer for both of our A&D and Industrial businesses at this moment in time. It provides clarity and simplification on our capital allocation and investments, and frankly, it also just aligns them both with their respective natural shareholder bases.

We're in a position, as you point out, why now, as compared to a few years ago, it's a result of all of the hard work and accomplishments that we've achieved over the last 10 years in order to position the various businesses to have the strength of their own to stand on their own. We've won, we're scaling MV-75, as I mentioned, we've added to and upgraded the Aviation portfolio, we've got all these clean-sheet programs like the Latitude, Longitude, SkyCourier, Denali, upgrades on the Ascend, the Gen2s, with Systems and their key programs of record now scaling and a good pipeline, we just have the synergies and core context of all of those businesses to come together as a strong pure-play A&D.

What's different is as now with Kautex and TSV, both are very well-run, and their end markets are in a stronger place and in good positions right now, with the progress Kautex has made with offerings on Pentatonic and Allegro, and how it is gaining customer traction and growth, as well as TSV being anchored by one of the most recognizable brands in golf with E-Z-GO. Candidly, the divestiture of Powersports just puts them in a better operating position.

We just believe that now is the right time in order to make this move, and we're excited to see what the future holds for it.

Sheila Kahyaoglu

Thank you so much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Myles Walton

Thanks. On Aviation, can you speak to the market environment for order activity and anything that's changing given the ongoing Middle East conflict?

Then Lisa, you mentioned repositioning some of your R&D funding into the supply chain. Could you just elaborate on what that means in the quantity?

Lisa Atherton

Sure. Look, regarding order activity, we had a very strong quarter of order activity across both Aviation and Bell.

They had their best Q1 bookings in four years, frankly, since Q1 of 2022. Really strong orders for the folks out there.

In Aviation, I highlighted the Luxaviation and Belgium Special Forces in the prepared remarks, but as we see that strong order flow, and ending the quarter with our backlog of up $8 billion for Aviation in particular, and we also have some pretty strong bookings that they're working forward to in Q2. Bell also is winning that new business in the commercial market.

They had the quarter with purchase order of seven 407s for the National Transmission Company of South Africa. You talk about in the defense side of the booking orders, and Bell was down-selected to the final phase of Flight School Next, as I mentioned, the pre-production contract for the ARV, and the Army's prototype agreement for the LASSO, or that Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance.

All of this kind of leads to that very strong order activity and that backlog of 19.2 that we highlighted for across the business. When you ask about the repositioning of some of the funding towards the supply chain and factories, look, that's really the area that we need to focus across on our business.

What we're trying to signal here is we're not looking to increase investment. We're going to maintain the same levels of investment that we have across the business, but we're probably going to take a portion of that, and I'm not going to kind of go into the details of what ratio that is, but take a portion of that and focus in on making our factories much more effective.

There's a lot of tools and capabilities that are out there now that we need to enable our workforce to have a better, more streamlined factory flow. We're looking at that as we go through this strategic review, and you'll see us start investing in that.

Hopefully, we'll see the yield of better production output.

Myles Walton

Got it. Thanks so much.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard of Vertical Research. Your line is open.

Robert Stallard

Thanks so much. Good morning.

David Rosenberg

Morning.

Robert Stallard

Couple of questions for you on Aviation. I was wondering if you could give us an update on what you think the cadence of deliveries will be in this division through the year and whether you expect this aftermarket growth rate to be maintained.

Then secondly, on the Aviation supply chain, did you see any improvement in that in the first quarter? Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Dave, why don't you take the first, and I'll hit the supply chain.

David Rosenberg

Morning, Robert. As we look at Q1, this was expected that we were about 100 basis points below the midpoint of the guide.

Just kind of the key factor there is some of the inefficiencies from last year are rolling through the income statement in Q1, and that's causing a little bit of headwinds. As we kind of think about the cadence for the rest of the year, we would expect improvements sequentially each quarter, with the margin peak being in Q4.

You should expect deliveries to increase each quarter this year, and we'd also expect efficiencies to improve throughout the year, especially in the second half.

Lisa Atherton

Hey, morning, Robert. On your supply chain question there, look, we continue to work with our key suppliers.

It's mainly around engines, as we've mentioned on the call last quarter, that we continue to, I'll say, fight through every day to get those in. I will say we're not seeing as many systemic supply chain issues as we have over the past several years.

We are seeing things start to improve. As we look at kind of what we call out-the-door statistics of some of our platforms, those are starting to improve.

Things still get lumpy along the way, we still have things pop up, but I would say we're starting to see a trend here of better performance writ large. Look, there's nothing easy.

The team's still fighting through the different little fires that pop up, but overall trends, we are starting to see improvement of on-time delivery from suppliers, and we're starting to see folks performing at better, higher quality.

Robert Stallard

That's great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Your line is open.

Peter Arment

Thanks. Good morning, Lisa and Dave.

Nice results. Lisa, maybe just quickly on margins just start the year kind of a low point.

Maybe just to give us a little, the puts and takes you're thinking about for the year and just when you've given your annual guidance, just how we should be thinking about from here, just given the volume that you're seeing on the MV-75? Thanks.

Lisa Atherton

I appreciate that. I think it was a good, strong start to the year.

I think it's a little early for us to start thinking about the guide, but as we continue to see strong performance, we'll evaluate that as we go forward for the back half of the year. I think on MV-75, I don't see us changing what we saw there.

It's going to be flat, kind of year-over-year of expected revenues. We do continue to see that acceleration pull from the Army, as we mentioned.

If they receive those additional funds, we'll see that kind of flow into the business, but we need to see the Army get those additional funds as they go through their procedures and processes to get those dollars.

Peter Arment

Appreciate it. Thanks, Lisa.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks.

Operator

Pardon, your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Good morning, guys. This is Alex Rod for Seth.

Maybe want to ask a follow-up on the Industrial situation. As you guys are kind of evaluating your options here between either selling the business or spinning it off, curious if you guys have any initial thoughts on which option you think is more likely at this point?

Then two, when we're thinking about the two businesses here between Kautex and Specialized Vehicles, is that expectation that those would be spun off or sold together or could they be kind of broken up into separate pieces? Thanks.

Lisa Atherton

Hi, thanks, Alex. Look, I think you kind of outlined all the options that we're looking at, and I don't think we necessarily have a course of action just yet that we're ready to declare.

We are going to do the process and work to explore all of those alternatives. I think that when we look at the spin, we just know that that's the certainty.

It'll be the longest path. We're going to do the work in order to prepare for that.

As we do that, we're exploring all avenues that you kind of outlined: selling them together or selling them apart. Those options are all on the table, and as the process evolves and folks are interested, we'll do what's in the best interest of our shareholders.

I think we've got an exciting future ahead of us, but we'll keep you guys posted as we come along those decisions.

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Godyn of Citi. Your line is open.

John Godyn

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question.

Lisa, I just really wanted to think through the conflict in the Middle East and what that means for Textron, sort of to state the obvious, there's a lot of activity there and fuel prices have doubled, on the aviation side, it's hard to believe that a doubling in fuel prices doesn't impact things. On the other hand, some of us on the call are old enough to remember the boom years in bizjet in '06-'07, which were positively correlated to oil prices and all the economic implications of that.

Then in your defense exposures, anything kind of pivoting on the back of what's going on in the Middle East, any imminent demand signals or anything like that, how the portfolio is expected to respond to that would be helpful. Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks. I recall now I kind of missed that.

Somebody asked a follow-on question on Iran, and I didn't get that earlier as well. Look, to date, we have not seen a material impact on the ongoing conflict.

We monitor the impact of those higher oil prices, and as you point out, has both positives and negatives to our various end markets. I think, as you correctly stated, on the aviation and helicopter side in particular, that's where we see some of that positive correlation.

We're watching that very closely. I think it's a little early days as folks use their capital there, but we will continue to monitor that and discuss that in future quarters.

With respect to the defense side of the business, on all of our programs, I think you're starting to see them continue to perform. I think when we see this investment across all of the defense portfolio from the Trump administration's most recent FYDP is a signal from them that they see an increased need in robusting, I'll call it, the magazines or the various platforms in order to be prepared.

I would say it's a secondary correlation to it, but you're starting to see support broadly across all the defense business. Programs in particular, I wouldn't necessarily go into any specific programs on that in that way.

John Godyn

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Noah Poponak

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Lisa Atherton

Morning, Noah.

Noah Poponak

Two questions. Lisa, on Aviation, your discussion around investing in supply chain and manufacturing improvements suggests a view that supply should be higher.

Curious how when you look at the backlog and the coverage, how are you balancing, you want to grow and you want to get customers jets, but you also want to protect the downside nodes of cyclicality.

Lisa Atherton

Just

Noah Poponak

are you thinking about where you want supply over the medium term? Then Dave, just on the Bell margin, if you could give us a little more color on the year-over-year change and how it progresses to get to the guidance for the year?

Lisa Atherton

It's a great question, and you're exactly right. When we look at the various type models, we want to make sure we don't disrupt this very strong backlog that we have, and so there are certain type models that if we put a little more investment, we could reduce the amount of time it takes to build those aircraft.

Some of those type models are sold out for years. If we were to bring them into say 18 months or so as a lead time, I think that much more aligns with customers' expectations, and those are the areas in which we would do focused improvements on in both the factories and the supply chain.

David Rosenberg

Noah, I'll take that question on Bell. As a starting point, if we look at kind of Q1 of this year versus last year, we're obviously down on the margin percent as well as in dollars.

Kind of two factors there to think about. We were off on commercial helicopter deliveries, some of that was just timing of deliveries and contract milestones, some of that was just delays in finishing up the last couple helicopters for the quarter.

We would expect, on the commercial side, for that to normalize out throughout the year, not too dissimilar to patterns you've seen the last couple years with a peak in Q4. We also had higher MV-75 revenue in the quarter, but the offset of that was some of our military legacy business was down, net-net, that does result in overall lower margins.

I think what you could expect to see from a cadence perspective as we go through the next three quarters is you'd see overall improvement, particularly because you'll have higher volume on the commercial side, getting us to where we're currently at on the guide of between 8% and 9%.

Noah Poponak

Thanks. Lisa, I guess just If I took the entire portfolio to 18 months, it would imply pretty nicely over 200 total deliveries.

I guess maybe you're saying not everything should be at 18 months, but do you think the equilibrium is 200 or 220 or hard to put a number to it?

Lisa Atherton

No, I think you're in the right ballpark, right? I think the right number is right there around 200.

I think that's accurate.

Noah Poponak

Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Josh Cohen

Hi, good morning. This is Josh Cohen on for David.

Lisa Atherton

Hey, Josh.

Josh Cohen

Wanted to ask, I think you were planning on taking that charge on MV-75 later this year or early next as the program ramps. Is there any change to your expectation in the size or timing of the charge?

David Rosenberg

No change in our expectation on the size, which was the cum catch-up was $60 to $110 million. As we said when we announced it previously, it's all depends on the timing of when the LRIP CLIN is exercised by the government, and there's no change in our expectation right now that could be as early as the second half of this year or possibly could flow into the first half of next year, and nothing's changed from our perspective right as we sit today.

Josh Cohen

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gavin Parsons of UBS. Your line is open.

Gavin Parsons

Thank you. Good morning.

Morning.

Lisa Atherton

Morning.

Gavin Parsons

Lisa, you mentioned Textron's considered strategic alternatives on Industrial in the past. I guess what are the hurdles to getting this done, and is there a minimum return threshold you're looking for to ensure it's not a dilutive transaction?

Lisa Atherton

Look, it's a little early to comment specifically on the level of dilution. It's going to depend on what that structure and value, whatever proceeds we would get on that.

Look, in addition to the benefits of clarity and flexibility, we just have different natural investor bases and different valuation frameworks inside those investor bases. We're going to have to leave it to the market to assess that valuation, but I do think that New Textron has higher growth and stronger margin, which should support stronger valuation over time.

I think on that side of it, it's going to prove out to be a very well-done alternative for us. In terms of in the past, I think the ideas there were around where we were as far as strength of the end markets of the Industrial business, it just wasn't the right time.

As we see the positive growth and the positive performance out of both Kautex and Specialized Vehicles, now just makes the right time for us to do this.

Gavin Parsons

Great. Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Kristine Liwag

Hey, good morning, everyone. Lisa, post the Industrial spin, and you'll have more time to allocate to the core aerospace defense.

I was wondering, can you talk more about how you're thinking about potential capital allocation within that core business? Are there platforms or capabilities you plan to spend more time on focusing, and are there areas you're willing to lean in more versus potentially rationalize?

Lisa Atherton

Look, I think our intent here is to lean in more versus rationalize on the A&D space. In fact, I think what we would look to do is, as we have this pure-play combination and how they're anchored across commercial and military aircraft, leverage the engineering capabilities we have across the business, and then we would look to see where we could be additive to that portfolio, particularly probably in the areas around Systems, and what it is that Systems does and how we could grow that area of our business much more strongly.

Kristine Liwag

Super helpful. That'd be a great follow-up on that Systems.

The US accelerates towards drone dominance, we're seeing a lot more non-traditional players, lower-cost competitors in this unmanned space, where you have a fairly robust offering within Systems. Can you talk more about how you balance cost, speed, autonomy with the performance that the DoD wants today, and also what that competitive dynamic is like and where you think Systems could leverage its strength in that industry?

Thanks.

Lisa Atherton

Thanks, Kristine. I think when we look at what the strengths are across Systems, not only is it decades and candidly millions of hours of proven capabilities across the unmanned space across three domains, a lot of what our offerings are, I will say, are more of the complicated and technical aspects of unmanned.

Some of the lower entrants, I think, are much more attritable, where what we have are capabilities that the services want to use over and over again. It requires a more robustness in design and durability of the platform.

What you see in things like the Ripsaw platform that we're currently designing for the Marine Corps, and what you see in our Aerosonde 4.7 and 4.8 that provides a loitering ISR capability for many hours, up to 13 hours, I think what we see there is still continued strong demand for those. We're also having growth opportunities in our unmanned surface vehicles, on the CUSV program and how they take their platform on the sea and put new capabilities, mine-hunting capabilities, into that platform.

Systems is providing the systems integration pieces that are much more complex than maybe what we see in some of the other platforms. That said, we're also very open to working with folks and being partners with various entrants, and you'll see Systems do that over time.

Kristine Liwag

Great. Thank you for the color, Lisa.

Lisa Atherton

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Ron Epstein

Hey, good morning, Lisa. Morning.

Good

Lisa Atherton

morning.

Ron Epstein

Maybe two questions just following up on some stuff that other folks asked. When you think about moving forward with an A&D-focused business, how are you factoring AI and AI-driven autonomy into Systems?

When I look at something like X-76, seems like a platform that could generate a ton of interest. How are you thinking about that and the opportunity there?

One area where it does seem I don't want to say that Textron's underperformed, but maybe could have done more, given all the technologies the company has, is in specifically aerial unmanned systems, given the prowess you all have in electronic propulsion and everything you've done in Textron Aviation and all the stuff in Systems. I don't know, sort of a broad question, but

Lisa Atherton

I'll try to tackle the second question up front in the sense of what you're talking about there is collaboration and synergies across the businesses, and what I would like to drive is how we're able to combine the engineering technology and talent that we have across Systems, Aviation, and Bell in order to come up with those ideas and platforms and breakthroughs, if you will, because we have that deep talent, as you mentioned. On the X-76, whether or not they would actually use AI autonomy in terms of the brain of the platform itself, right now, the proving out of the X-76 is the stop-fold technology itself, and it'll be an unmanned platform.

I think as that program evolves, you'll see a lot of the expertise that we have on the X-70 or the MV-75 with the MOSA architecture will probably naturally follow it into the X-76. There's just a lot of capability across Textron that I think we can now really come together in this pure-play A&D space, and I plan to continue to drive that.

We've done it in the past. We've got examples of where we have helped each other between the various businesses, but really driving towards an A&D strategy amongst ourselves, I think, will generate what you're alluding to.

Ron Epstein

Then culturally, how do you achieve this, right? Because you have an organization, I guess, in some parts that's used to being more independent.

Are you going to have a core A&D engineering group that will serve the whole company? I don't know if you're there yet, but how do you think about shifting the culture to support it?

Just to be blunt, if you can't tell, I think this is a great idea. In terms of executing it, how do you get the culture to buy into it?

Lisa Atherton

As culture takes a minute to evolve, but we are certainly on that journey. Part of my expectations is how we will continue to collaborate with each other.

Things as simple as sharing each other's strategic business reviews with each other. We're just driving various different opportunities for the businesses to be exposed to what the other business is doing as a way for them to say, "Hey, that's a great idea.

I've got somebody over in this area that can help with that." I hope that you will see that continue to evolve over time, and I'm optimistic that the team is very excited about doing it.

Ron Epstein

Then maybe just one quick financial detail. On the Industrial business, over the years, we heard that there'd be too much tax leakage to spin it or do whatever.

How should we think about that, the tax impact?

David Rosenberg

You obviously have in the different scenarios two tax impacts. You have the potential repatriation of cash, we've thought about in terms of what the transaction expenses would be, and then the tax leakage on the transaction itself.

Both of those, we believe, would be manageable in whatever structure we end up doing. As we mentioned in our release, we believe if in a spin scenario, it would be done on a tax-free basis.

Ron Epstein

Got it. All right, thank you, Dave.

David Rosenberg

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned of Bernstein. Your line is open.

Doug Harned

Good morning. Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Morning.

Doug Harned

On Systems, I find this to be the most difficult business to really kind of look forward long term. ATAC, the Ship-to-Shore Connector, this has been going well, but if we think on more of a five-year view, what do you see as the underlying differentiated capabilities there and the types of programs that you see your best positioned for as you look longer term?

Lisa Atherton

I would say there's two stand out for me. First being the Sentinel program, as that EMD program continues to mature into a production program, and as we are a key Tier 1 supplier to Northrop Grumman on that program, we will follow where that Sentinel program continues to grow.

I think that's a key aspect of the Systems portfolio. Then additionally, on the ground side of the business, the Armored Reconnaissance Vehicle, as well as the XM30, which we haven't mentioned so far in this call, Textron Systems is competing in both of those, and those will both be decided in the coming two to three years, and I believe that you will see us have a position on one or both of those programs.

I think those underpin the go-forward on the Systems performance. Then

Doug Harned

if you do sort of the same thing at Bell, when you look beyond MV-75, you mentioned the FSN program. Can you give us a sense at all of kind of the timing and scale of potential new opportunities over the next few years beyond what you're doing on MV-75?

Lisa Atherton

Timing and scale. The Flight School Next program will be decided by the end of next quarter.

We will know how that's going to impact the future of Bell's prospects here within the next 90 days or so. When we see what that comes out at, and I don't want to go into numbers right now because we are in a, I'll say, active negotiation there of phase four.

It is a strong opportunity for Bell for the next candidly 25 years for Flight School Next. When you look at what the Marine Corps is doing with their H-1 program, and frankly, we've focused on MV-75 and X-76, but there is still a lot of work going on on the H-1 and the V-22 platforms, and the sustainment of those platforms for the coming decades.

There's a lot of work going on both in the nacelle improvement program for the V-22, as well as the structural improvement and electrical power upgrade program for the H-1. They have upside on both of those programs.

That's just on the defense side. On the commercial side, as the 525 platform reaches its certification and moves into the commercial backlog, we'll start to see strong growth on that towards the back end of this decade, beginning of next.

Doug Harned

Very good. Thank you.

Lisa Atherton

Yep.

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna of TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Gautam Khanna

Congratulations on the announcement.

Lisa Atherton

Thank you.

Gautam Khanna

Wanted to ask if there are any dis-synergies that you can point to. I know you talked a little bit about tax, but any sense of dis-synergies early on from the separation?

David Rosenberg

We've obviously, as part of this process, analyzed all those. There'd be a minimal level of stranded costs that we do strongly believe we can manage through, but otherwise, there is nothing of a significant nature from a dis-synergy perspective.

The stranded costs are very minimal.

Gautam Khanna

Okay. Lisa, to Kristine's earlier question, I just wanted to understand better.

Do you think this is going to be the end of the portfolio review, or will there be parts of the A&D franchises that you're looking to maybe scale back as part of this process?

Lisa Atherton

Yeah. Again, great question, and I would say I'm looking to lean in and grow versus scaling back.

Gautam Khanna

Got you. Thank you very much.

Operator

With no further questions, that concludes our Q&A session, and this also will conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.