George Weston
Good morning. Thank you all for joining us either here in person, particularly thank you, or online.
We're here to review the ABF annual results for the 52 weeks ending the 12th of September 2026. I'm of course delighted to be joined by Joana Edwards, our finance director here, Chief Financial Officer, and Eoin Tonge, the Chief Executive of Primark.
I am aware that this session in rehearsal went on for quite a long time, settle down. We've got a fair We've got a fair amount to say, and I ask for your patience.
Some of the content is Well, all the content's important, and I think interesting. Let me start by saying that this was a year of good strategic and operational progress across the group.
I really mean that. The operating environment though was difficult: weak consumer sentiment and a number of sometimes significant headwinds for our businesses.
Those impacts were evident in the financial results that we've published today. Our adjusted operating profit was down 14%, primarily due to lower profit in Primark, but profit was also lower in our food businesses due to a couple of specific reasons, and I'll come on to those.
Adjusted earnings per share down 11%, reflecting the benefit from share buybacks. We've maintained our full year dividend in line with last year.
We completed £250 million of share buybacks 2026. This is a statement, the maintenance of the dividend, of two things: firstly, our confidence in the underlying strength of the group in the medium and the long term, for both Primark and AB Foods; and also that even with maintaining the share the the dividend with lower earnings, the dividend remains well covered.
This year our businesses responded well to difficult operating environment. We focused on things that were within our control, and we made good progress with a number of important strategic projects across the group.
There were a lot of them, there really were a lot of them. In Primark, I am very pleased with the progress to re-energize our core proposition, while opening up new avenues of growth, new important avenues for growth.
This time last year we set out our key strategic priorities for Primark, and we're delivering against these. We've taken significant steps to lower prices, to improve price perception, to strengthen our product offer, particularly in womenswear, and to increase customer engagement.
In two areas where we said we would unapologetically focus first, we've delivered like-for-like sales growth, both in the UK, which went from -3% to positive, and then in womenswear, our largest category, where we delivered like-for-like growth everywhere. We're now building on this as we increase our focus on Europe and in our other categories.
Primark still has significant white space, and most notably in the year our new franchise model, which has got off to a very strong start in the Middle East, even in the circumstances of that part of the world. That franchise model will open up markets beyond the Middle East, and next, within the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, but then Mexico.
Our decision to to offer home delivery in the in Great Britain is also an attractive opportunity for future profitable growth. In foods, we focused on what we could control.
We had two very specific headwinds in US oils and sugar, which masked good growth in a number of other areas in both grocery and ingredients. We stayed well invested in marketing and product innovation, and I'll show you some of that as we go through.
We made significant progress in key areas of self-help we identified in 2025, and in doing so, we really have strengthened our business in a lot of different areas. We completed the acquisition of Hovis, major project both to acquire it, and now the major integration exercise is well underway.
We expect to deliver significant synergies to create a profitable UK bakeries business. There are no surprises that we've no significant surprises at least that we've uncovered as we've got to know that business.
In European sugar, we're reducing our UK footprint to meet customer demand more effectively as prices recover, four factories down to three with the closure of Cantley. In agriculture, we're exiting our UK compound feed business, which will allow us to focus more intently on higher-margin growth areas.
This will both improve profitability within agri, but also free up capital that has been quite miserable in the returns that it's generated for us. Across the group, we invested another £1.2 billion in capital projects.
Majority of this will drive growth: new stores, depots, technology in Primark; and new capacity, capabilities, and technology in AB Foods. The large number of new projects this completed either this year just gone or completing now will contribute meaningfully to future growth and deliver attractive returns, and not in the distant future, but quite close in now.
We've made those investments while continuing to deliver strong capital returns to shareholders through both dividends and buybacks, and this is underpinned by our still robust balance sheet with 1.1 times leverage. One of the most important, maybe the most important strategic decision this year was the one to demerge Primark.
We'll create two focused businesses, each with the capability, the investment capacity, and the strategic flexibility to accelerate its own growth agenda. We're on track to complete that process in December 2027, and we've made good progress already to build the systems and processes to operate the business the businesses as a standalone business.
We'll also use the time leading up to the demerger to provide a greater understanding of our businesses. We'll hold two separate Capital Markets Days in autumn 2027.
We know that AB Foods, which is how we'll refer to the food business going forward, is currently less well understood, and over the next 12 months, we'll tell you much more about our portfolio of businesses and brands and how the food group operates. This will include a series of four shortish investor education events during 2027, and lovely to see as many of you as like to come at those.
We'll start with a deep dive on AB Foods following by event on AB Foods and how we operate, followed by events on each of the three business segments that we'll have within AB Foods, grocery, ingredients, and sugar and agribusiness. The main difference from the segments we have today is that we'll bring together sugar and agri and agriculture.
It won't change how these businesses are being managed internally, however, for reporting purposes, I think it makes sense to group together the commodity elements of these two businesses. With that, Joana, over to you.
Joana Edwards
Good morning, everyone. Let me take you through this year's results in more detail then.
In 2026, group revenue was £19.6 billion, up 1% at actual rates, with a net benefit from foreign exchange translation of £284 million. At constant currency, group revenue was 1% below last year.
Primark sales grew 2%, and sales in AB Foods declined 4%, including disposed and closed businesses. Excluding disposed business and closed businesses, AB Foods sales were down 1%, as you can see from the slide.
Group adjusted operating profit was £1.5 billion, a decrease of 14% at constant currency. While this was primarily due to lower profit in Primark, profit also declined in our food businesses.
There was a small impact from foreign exchange translation, a net benefit of £20 million, and the group profit was in line of our expectations. Within the results, there are a number of moving parts though, let me go through the detailed performance by segment.
Starting with Primark and looking here at sales, these grew 2% to £9.8 billion. New stores contributed 5% to sales growth, and Primark like-for-like sales declined 2.6% in a challenging consumer environment across most of our markets.
In the UK, we had a much improved performance. Like-for-like sales grew 0.5% compared with a 3% decline last year, and we gained market share.
This was despite the clothing retail market declining in the year. It is a consequence of the actions we've taken to re-energize Primark's proposition.
In Continental Europe, we are at an early stage in our commercial recovery and in development of our capabilities in brand, marketing, and digital. Sales were down 1%, and like-for-like sales declined 4.7%.
In the US, sales grew 13%. We made good progress with new space expansion, with 14 store openings in the year.
However, it was a difficult trading environment. This was mainly due to the effect of US tariffs on consumer sentiment and footfall.
FY 2026 was a strong year of openings, with a total 37 new stores. This includes 33 of our own stores across Europe and the US, and our first four franchise stores in the Middle East.
Primark's adjusted operating profit margin was 10.2%. This was below last year for two main reasons.
The first was our decision to significantly increase investment across price, product, marketing, and digital initiatives to drive like-for-like sales growth. In the areas where we prioritized investment this year, the UK and womenswear, our like-for-like sales grew.
We also had continued investment in technology to build capacity and scale. The second was lower like-for-like sales, of course, and the associated increase in markdowns.
There was a margin benefit from foreign exchange, and the cost efficiency delivered across our supply chain, store operations, and central costs enabled us to offset inflation. In grocery, sales grew 2%, which primarily reflected the consolidation of Hovis.
Excluding Hovis, our underlying sales were broadly flat. We had sales growth across a number of our international and regionally focused brands, underpinned by continued investment in marketing and new product innovation.
Twinings sales grew in the year, however, strong growth across most of the year was then held back by the extended summer heat waves in the UK and France, which lowered hot tea consumption. Grocery adjusted operating profit was down 11%.
This was primarily due to lower sales and profit in our US oils business, as George just mentioned, both our retail brand Mazola and our joint venture Stratas, reflecting ongoing pressure on consumer spending. Ovaltine profit was impacted by higher cocoa costs and the phasing of sales in Thailand as we changed to a new distribution model.
The implementation of new ERP systems drove higher depreciation costs. At the half year, I noted that US tariffs had affected profit.
A large proportion of these costs was refunded in the second half. Ingredients had an adjusted operating profit of £238 million, down 8%, in line with our expectations.
In our yeast and bakery ingredients business, AB Mauri, profit declined. This was mainly due to weaker consumer spending in the US, which reduced demand for our products.
There was also subdued demand for our specialty yeast products for use in alcohol beverages. Most of AB Mauri's other markets and categories performed well.
In specialty ingredients, ABFI, the portfolio performed well overall. This included good growth across a number of our pharmaceutical products, as well as in yeast extracts and enzymes for food and beverage markets.
We continue to invest in R&D, commercial capabilities, and strategic capital projects to drive growth. Sugar had an adjusted operating loss of £47 million.
As we guided in April, we did not offset the first-half loss in the second half. In the UK, sales and profit declined significantly.
This was primarily due to lower average selling prices compared to 2025, which was only partially offset by lower beet prices. Profitability was also impacted by the recognition of onerous contracts provisions.
This arose from low European sugar prices, higher gas costs, and lower yield expectations for the beet crop that is currently being harvested due to the hot, dry summer. Lower yields reduced the absorption on fixed costs, as you probably would know.
Our Spanish business, Azucarera, had a reduced operating loss in 2026 as a result of our restructuring actions last year. In Africa, which is our growth market, overall profit was lower.
This was primarily due to lower sales in South Africa and Eswatini and lower production in Tanzania. One thing to note is that the anticipated devaluation of the Malawian currency did not take place in 2026.
We have factored currency devaluation into our 2027 figures. Agriculture adjusted operating profit was £19 million, broadly in line with last year.
Our specialty business delivered good growth across specialty feed, feed additives, and nutritional supplements. Lower profit from our joint venture Frontier was due to lower commodity prices, smaller crop sizes, and reduced demand for crop protection products following dry spring weather.
We have taken the strategic decision to exit our low-margin compound feed business in the UK to focus on higher-margin growth opportunities. The results of this business are now included in disposed and closed operations and not within the agriculture segment.
Moving to adjusted earnings and adjusted earnings per share, adjusted EPS was 156 pence, down 10.8%, reflecting lower profit, but benefiting from a lower tax rate and the share buybacks. Regarding the adjusted effective tax rate, which reduced slightly to 23.9%, down from 24.2% last year, this benefited from the reassessment of uncertain tax positions, which more than offset the negative impact from a change in the geographic profit mix.
We do expect some upward pressure on the group's effective tax rate in 2027 as we will be lapping the non-recurring benefit. Free cash flow of £652 million was in line with last year.
While operating profit was lower, there was a cash flow benefit from having lower net working capital at year-end, mostly as a consequence of a reduction in inventories in Primark due to both phasing effect and specific actions to reduce inventory levels. Capital expenditure of £1.2 billion was broadly in line with last year, and we also completed a number of acquisitions totaling £0.2 billion.
I'll share more on these investments shortly. Our balance sheet remains strong and continues to support both investment and shareholder returns.
As I just noted, our overall working capital position was lower than last year, primarily due to lower inventory levels in Primark. Seasonal inventories were also well managed.
Our net cash position was slightly lower, reflecting the shareholder returns made in the year, both dividends and buybacks. The value of our pension surplus continued to grow and was £1.7 billion at the year-end, whilst we continue to provide a cash benefit through the abatement of employer contributions.
Turning now to cash and liquidity, our year-end net debt position, including lease liabilities, was £2.8 billion compared to £2.6 billion in 2025. This reflects the net cash reduction I just explained and additional lease liabilities from properties acquired as part of the Hovis acquisition.
Our leverage ratio was 1.1 times, which is an increase on last year, but well within our capital allocation policy. Total liquidity was £2.4 billion, which includes undrawn committed facilities of £1.8 billion.
This robust position underpins our continued investment in growth while maintaining resilience and flexibility. Our total investment in 2026 was £1.4 billion, as I just said, across the group, split between £1.2 billion of capex and £0.2 billion of acquisitions.
Around 40% of our investment was in Primark, across new stores; new depots, including Sheffield; increased automation; digital capabilities; and new technology. The remaining 60% was in AB Foods, and a large amount of this spend was to complete multi-year projects.
These investments will drive growth in new markets and add capacity where we've been constrained, and also add new capabilities. We also completed acquisitions, including Hovis in the UK, Abe's Bagels in Australia and New Zealand, and Elementis Pharma in Germany.
Across ABF, we've invested more than £100 million this year in technology projects, including automation to drive efficiency in our supply chains and new ERP systems to strengthen efficiency and decision-making in our businesses. We expect group capex to remain at a similar level in 2027 as we make the final cash payments for projects that have now been completed in our food businesses.
We expect capex in AB Foods to start to reduce in 2028. Our capital allocation approach is to return excess capital to shareholders, both through dividends and share buybacks.
Our 2026 proposed total dividend is 63 pence, which is in line with last year. This reflects our confidence in the medium-term and long-term outlook for the group.
Our dividend remains well covered. We completed our most recent share buyback program of £250 million in August.
Over the last 4 years, we have returned £1.9 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and £1.6 billion through dividends. These shareholder returns, alongside our continued investment in our business, demonstrates our commitment to delivering long-term value for shareholders.
I'll finish on our outlook for the group. In a challenging year ahead, the group will continue to make significant strategic and operational progress that will serve us well when the operating environment starts to improve.
However, we remain cautious on consumer sentiment and the impact of inflation and higher energy costs on our businesses. We expect group adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS to be below 2026, mainly due to sugar, as previously guided.
I won't go through the full detail of the guidance by segment on this slide. I would like to point out that in grocery though, we now expect adjusted operating profit to be broadly in line with 2026.
While we expect sales growth in most brands and businesses, we expect this to be offset by higher input costs. Our grocery outlook includes a one-off impact from consolidating Hovis' losses in the first year of ownership as well, and we expect to deliver significant synergies and profit accretion in subsequent years.
For the rest of our business segments, there is no change to the guidance we provided in our trading update in September. With that, let me hand over to you, Eoin.
Eoin Tonge
Thank you, Joana, and good morning, everyone. Obviously, Joana has actually just taken us through the performance of Primark in the year already.
Just a quick recap to set the context: overall growth of 2%, driven by good expansion, including the start of our franchise business in the Middle East, but like-for-like decline of 2.6%. However, with growth in the UK and a decline in Europe, tough overall context it has to be said, across pretty much all of our markets, including the UK, and in that context, we're very pleased with the UK performance, which continues to consistently outperform the market.
Clearly, performance in Europe was difficult. We have to move we've we've more to do to win there, and I'm going to talk a good bit about that today.
So 12 months ago, when I was standing here, I said we're going to challenge ourselves and have to take a really hard look at our operating environment and our business and be very precise about what we're going after. I think the key point I want to leave here today is that we're very clear on our strategy and the direction.
It's about building a better Primark, driving like-for-like sales growth through clear levers of value, category focus, increased brand and marketing activation, and in time more localization and improved customer availability. It's about leveraging our scale to drive an omnichannel model, which obviously is I'm going to talk more about today, which is new, and also to drive expansion through our store estate and our new franchise arrangements, where we believe we can accelerate.
It's all underpinned by cost discipline to enable us to invest in the proposition and to protect margin. I also end the year with a new leadership team in place, some real world-class talent to help build a better Primark.
We're on with this strategy. Let me set out what we've done in the year, what we're learning, where we are getting some wins already, and how we are applying applying some of those wins.
If I can wrap it up in a single sentence, we're going to create a stronger, simpler, more scalable business, and you're going to see some of those themes as I talk through the review of last year. Again, last year we talked a lot about refocusing and resetting our value proposition in the year.
This is about getting Primark back to being who we are: the original and the best value disruptor in the market. It's about getting back to our fashion roots, investing in quality that our scale enables, but most importantly, and the biggest element of this has and will always be price.
That's where we've really focused this year. We started the year with Major Finds, which was a really successful promotional vehicle for our customers, showcasing our amazing value, which was killer prices for the products that we offered.
It's been a great footfall driver. We started in the UK, and we rolled it out to our markets in Europe through the year.
Then we ended the year with Iconic Value, and this really is the major initiative to reset our value proposition, and indeed our price proposition. We set this out in July as we brought in autumn/winter product.
This is about a major price investment in iconic hero lines, focusing where we believe it matters most. We've seen a really good response across all markets, and this has been in all markets.
Critically, it has reinforced our category leadership in core categories such as leisure and nightwear. It's also combined an overall strengthening, we believe, and simplifying of the range, including consolidating our price points.
All of this reset now covers over a quarter of our range, and it will continue through autumn/winter of this year and spring/summer into next year. The price leadership underpins a new investment in style and quality, including investments in fabric.
Which leads me on to the work that we're doing on sharpening our product focus, starting with womenswear, our most important and our largest category. I talked a lot about what we were doing in this category last year, and it really has been a standout performer in the year.
Not just strong like-for-like growth in the UK, but beyond. For example, H2 women's clothing was up strongly in France and Spain.
What is the playbook? Better products start with better insight, and we do have our most comprehensive and clearest ever womenswear customer insight across our markets.
We understand who our core customers are, and we've much stronger certainty about where we believe the growth lies. Primark is a fashion brand at heart, and so we have reset our womenswear offer to attract more fashion- and style-led customers.
If you've been in-store, and make sure you do go into store, you can see how different this looks and feels. We've strengthened our womenswear our core womenswear fashion offer, bringing more elevated contemporary style to the mat, all designed to challenge the perceptions of what affordable fashion can look and and feel like.
We launched The Scene, which is a new collection aimed at the growing youth market. We continued the strong fashion lens into our collaborations.
We had the continued strength of our collaboration with Paula Echevarría, but we also had a new collaboration with Coleen Rooney, By Coleen, which has been very strong in all markets, not just the UK and Ireland. Performance wear is another example of investment in value, quality, fabric, and style.
This is a deliberate category focus, where we knew innovation and fabric and our scale could disrupt the category. It's been a really strong success story for us.
We're now the largest seller of performance wear and athleisure wear in the UK in a relatively new category for us. To support these new strengthened lines, we have also introduced better in-store merchandising, displaying complete looks for inspiration.
Coordinated ranges are have significantly increased year-on-year in-store. I mention this because we see good uplifts when we showcase the full outfits together for our customers.
Critically, we are also applying the same focus in womenswear to our other categories, where we are in truth a little further behind, and we had less strong performance in the financial year just gone. Kidswear has been a big focus for us in the year.
We have a huge opportunity, we believe, in this category, and there is a lot of change underway. We've already improved the mix and quality, invested in price, simplified the range, improved style, and in some cases tackled the over-reliance on license.
We have a higher kidswear mix in our European markets, strengthening in this category is critically important for those markets. We launched a lot of these changes just in autumn/winter just now, more to report on this.
Finally, in menswear, we're also rebuilding our style credentials in that category in a similar way to what we're doing in womenswear. Plans are at an earlier stage, albeit you will see some of the changes in our autumn/winter collections already.
Underpinning our improved category focus is a continued step-on in marketing and digital engagement across all our markets. We said this time last year we were at the foothills in in this, but we have made very good headway in the year.
We started and indeed invested most of our energy and money in the UK at the beginning of the year. It was there that we had our very first integrated marketing campaign, which has delivered strong commercial results.
We started off with "In Denim We Can" in last September, which had strong performance, which we measured, with a good uplift in the Primark market share in women's denim. Then we had "Shockingly Chic" in the spring, which was actually the launch of that elevated fashion in the core fashion offering that I spoke about, and then "The Getaway" in in in summer.
Pleasingly, and quite importantly, brand metrics have moved improved in step with these campaigns. Of course, the obvious question is: what are we doing outside of the UK in relation to our marketing and activation?
Our focus is to increase our activation in European markets. I talked about Major Finds.
They started in the UK in the year, and then we moved them all the way through the European markets in the year. In H2, we really started to step up our broader activation in Europe.
We had our first funnel marketing campaign in Spain in with the summer campaign that I mentioned, "The Getaway." We've since continued in Spain with our Primark Form performance wear marketing campaign just at the start of this financial year, which has been very positive.
We launched also our first multichannel marketing campaigns in France and Italy at the beginning of this year, which were focused on autumn/winter fashion. We've also started more meaningful local activation with what we call our Spotlights, where we choose a partner influencer to help us curate a Primark edit to highlight and spotlight in stores and online.
We started this in the UK with a fashion-focused Spotlight, and we've since extended these to Spain with a kidswear focus Spotlight, and then in recent weeks a more, again, a fashion-focused Spotlight in Italy. All of these have been successful.
I think there's lots of real potential for them: very local, very focused in the market that we are operating in. We've a lot of focus, more to do in activation in Europe, and we'll continue to step that up this year.
Which if I take a stand back and think about Europe, I think this step-up in activation along with our investments our Iconic Value investment, our category focus, in particular kidswear, gives us confidence of recovery in the European markets. In time, these markets should benefit from more from localized ranging.
There's a lot going on in omnichannel to get excited about. Across our markets, we continue to invest in digital engagement.
Our CRM database that we are actively marketing to was up 38% year-on-year, growing both in the UK and Europe. We've continued to see very strong website traffic, particularly in the UK, which was up significantly in the year, obviously helped by Click & Collect.
Our app is now live in the UK, Ireland, Italy, and Iberia, and overall stock tracker usage across web and app is still high across markets, and we've seen higher stock checker usage on the app than the website when available. There's more opportunity here, but we still have seen some really good delivery, and we had a full year of Click & Collect in the UK, which has gone really well with continued strong metrics.
The last step is to go fully omnichannel. As George mentioned, we announced our Sheffield site acquisition in September to support home delivery in the UK.
This is obviously a big deal and one we're very excited about. I guess there are a number of key questions that are are being asked on this: why, why now, can it be profitable, and of course, when?
We've done a huge amount of work on this in the last number of years. Critically, it starts with confidence around the target consumer.
It is targeted on targeted on customers who shop with us, but more occasionally, generally more style-led, and do a lot more of their total spend online with other brands. The first point I want to make here is that this is set up to really focus on incrementality.
Click & Collect has given us some real confidence here. Sales through Click & Collect have been highly incremental to date and have supported the market share gains that we've had in the UK.
Click & Collect, through our work, reaches roughly a 10-kilometer store catchment area, home delivery clearly unlocks more. Aligned to this focus on incrementality is how we believe we can protect the basket size, obviously critical for delivering our value proposition profitably.
With this type of customer, we feel we can have a minimum order sizes to protect the basket size. Basket sizes in Click & Collect have been good to date, and also give us confidence here.
We're going to protect the economics further by passing on charges in line with the rest of the market. Importantly, having full home delivery strengthens the effectiveness of our digital engagement and the cost of customer acquisition, both for this channel and for our stores.
After years of review, we feel very confident that it's time to now target a profitable growth in this channel. Our plan is to launch in the UK by the end of the calendar year next year.
Store expansion continues to be a core growth engine. We delivered 33 new owned stores in last year across Europe, the US, and UK.
In total, new space delivered 5% growth. Overall, we still see a lot of runway for space growth in Europe.
Our market penetration in some markets is still very low, and with a better and more focused proposition that I've spoken about, we feel we've plenty to go after. In the US, we substantially increased our store estate in the year, with 14 new stores, taking us to about 50 now.
That included our Herald Square store in Manhattan, which performed strongly, and around which we drove a large brand awareness campaign, which has really helped. As Joana mentioned, the year had a more challenging backdrop, with tariff volatility and a a nervous consumer.
I was there a couple of weeks ago. It felt a bit more reassuring.
It felt conditions appear to be settling, despite everything else is going on. We are now trialing a lot of new things in the US.
For example, we are testing more bespoke ranging for our stores there at the moment. Still loads of growth potential in the market, also see an omnichannel opportunity in the US in time.
Off the back of our recent rapid expansion, we plan now to focus on the performance of our current and large estate. This includes testing the new customer proposition that I've mentioned before, including the more bespoke ranging, and overall drive profitability and cost optimization, and then we'll look to restart our expansion from a stronger base.
Our brand is so much untapped potential globally, and franchising is a capital-efficient and expedient route to market and to attractive new markets. In the year we have already in a year, we have already built a meaningful business in the Middle East, now with six stores across four countries, and there's so much potential still in that region.
I was in Dubai last week, and the stores were performing remarkably well, despite the near-term uncertainty. Next year, we open our first store in Saudi Arabia, that George mentioned, with Alshaya at the end of March, and that opens with up a lot of growth potential.
We also worked hard on our second franchise arrangement during the year, signing with a new partner, Liverpool, for Mexican market entry just before the end of the year. Mexico is a market has huge potential for us, we believe, and we're moving fast in this franchise space.
Taken together, this acceleration plus the continued store expansion gives us a lot of confidence on the current 4% to 5% medium-term expansion target. Building a better Primark is also about a stronger operating model, supporting our new growth routes, but also operating a simpler model.
We've already taken a substantial amount of costs out last year, with self-checkouts and labor cost savings in stores, as well as other broader supply chain efficiencies. However, I am signaling a step-up in this program, really addressing the complexities of our operating model that our operating model faces today, to get us back to be more the most efficient and simple we can be.
We simply can't be a value leader without being a cost leader, and we see significant cost efficiency opportunity across all areas, more to come in this space. Of course, technology, automation, and data investment will be needed to simplify and fund growth.
An illustration of this is the investments we're putting into driving customer availability. This includes a new investment in RFID technology for our ranges, which will be rolling out in phases over the coming months.
We see both considerable like-for-like and cost opportunity across our all markets with that investment. This is about getting us back to being the most efficient model, simple and scalable.
Thank you, all in all, very clear on the direction of the business, and a lot of exciting times ahead, and I look forward to your questions later.
George Weston
Thank you, Eoin. Before I talk through this year's performance, let me start with some wider context.
As I said in my opening, ahead of next year's demerger and Capital Markets Day, we will also offer a series of four short education sessions on AB Foods, when I look forward to explaining in more detail what's in our portfolio and how we operate. This morning, let me give you just some edited highlights.
We are a deliberately different kind of food group, and I'll pick up on some of these differences. The first is the diversification of the portfolio.
Food is a sector that never stands still, and where consumer needs and preferences will always evolve, and never faster than now. Our diversity provides both resilience and optionality for growth, and our devolved operating model gives us strong local leaders close to our market and customers, empowered to be agile in response to changing trends.
There are structural trends as well, and I think we're well positioned for these, trends such as growth in food service over decades, premiumization, health and wellness. This year alone, there are numerous examples of our product innovation driving participation in areas of structurally growing consumer demand.
We are positioned where we have leading market positions and a competitive advantage. We like to be in small categories in large markets, and we like to be in large categories in small markets.
Industry structure is really important to us. The businesses in our portfolio play different roles: some provide us with long-duration growth, others provide us with strong cash generation, and there are some earlier-stage businesses.
Again, this breadth gives us resilience and multiple routes to growth. We invest patiently behind growth opportunities where there are attractive returns, and we take a long-term view.
In the last 2 years, we've invested £1.6 billion in capital projects in AB Foods, and the majority of those were growth projects. We also accelerate category reach through targeted acquisitions, and there were some examples of that this year as well.
Where necessary, we reshape businesses to improve their competitiveness, financial performance, and long-term returns, and I'll also talk about some of those examples this morning. We've talked in the last couple of years about a wave of investment in our food businesses, that £1.6 billion.
This slide shows the key projects that have either now completed or are in the process of being commissioned this year. I'll talk about them in more detail as I review the business segments, but what these investments have in common is they extend our capacity and capabilities in attractive markets, strengthening our competitive advantage, providing a strong platform for future growth.
Having set out the broad elements of our strategy in AB Foods, let me go into performance by segment this year, and starting with grocery. As Joana set out, grocery profit was down in 2026, and the main reason was the performance of our US oils business.
Mazola, which is our retail brand, faced a decline in the edible oils category in a difficult consumer environment. It was particularly Mazola's core Hispanic consumers that reduced their category spending, who are under pressure for reasons we understand.
We've looked hard at the data, and we don't think that this is a consequence of GLP-1. The market is smaller than it used to be, but Mazola held its position as the number one brand.
We focused on affordability through promotions and smaller formats, and our marketing investment maintained our share of voice in basic edible oils is at around 80% 80%. Our joint venture in oils, Stratas, mainly serves the food service market, and consumers reduced their spending on out-of-home dining.
We think the slowdown in food service will reverse over time, although again, GLP-1s may be causing part of the market shrinkage. There were also some smaller headwinds to grocery profit this year, but I would characterize these as bumps in the road.
In Ovaltine, we faced significantly higher cocoa costs, which have since come down somewhat. Then we've had a one-off impact from commissioning our new factory in Nigeria, and then a phasing impact as we transition to a new distribution model in Thailand.
As we expected, performance was stronger in the second half. Then in Twinings, that long, hot summer led to lower tea consumption in the UK and France.
There were a number of places where we had very encouraging growth in the year, and I'll share a few highlights. Overall Twinings sales were up this year, despite the hot weather impacts in Europe.
Growth was volume-led, supported by growing consumer demand for wellness products and really good innovation. Our sales of fruit and herbal teas grew double digits.
Our sparkling tea ready-to-drinks in the UK have strong momentum, growing 70% in 2026, and this year we launched them in Australia alongside a new range of cold infusion tea bags. Initial sales there in Australia have been strong, and demonstrate how we build our resilience to summer heat waves.
We'll continue to grow distribution and expand in new channels, in particular online. In the US, which is our largest market, Twinings was the number one tea brand on Amazon for the first time, driven by sales growth of 30% 37% in that channel.
Ovaltine had continued innovation in its ready-to-eat portfolio. In Brazil, which is a fast-growing market for Ovaltine, we expanded our presence in food service through a new and really important partnership with McDonald's.
McDonald's has launched the Ovaltine McFlurry, which also drives of course brand awareness for our retail products. Ovaltine-themed milkshakes in Brazil are the biggest-selling ones in that big market.
Our World Foods businesses delivered record profits, and again, innovation was very strong. Blue Dragon sales grew double digits in the UK and grew 30% in the US, which is a target market for us.
We also had good growth in Jordans, with innovation targeted at consumers looking for more nutritious and protein-based cereals, and our sports nutrition business sales grew 20% this year in the fast-growing hydration space. In July, we completed the acquisition of Hovis, and the integration with our UK bakery business began then, and is now well underway.
There are three significant elements to this integration. We will deliver significant production and distribution synergies.
The benefits will start to come through from the second half of 2027 and will be accretive to earnings in 2028. The second element is innovation.
We are developing products for the growth sectors in bakery driven by changing consumer tastes, including shifts to healthier option and cleaner labels. Last year, Hovis launched its first sourdough loaves, which were developed using specialist expertise from our company AB Mauri.
Hovis will shortly be launching a new Just 3 loaf in Tesco's, which is bread made from three simple ingredients. Then third, we're reinvigorating the Hovis brand.
It's a national treasure that's not received the investment it deserves, and we have the opportunity to restore it. Our recent consumer marketing campaign is the first major brand investment since 2008.
Let me show you the recent TV ad.
If these walls could talk, they'd say there's strength in all of us. Excuse me.
All right. I've made you this.
Hovis. Strength baked in.
George Weston
We've seen an immediate sales uplift following the airing of that ad. Hovis is a brand that's rooted in heritage, it's rooted in health, it's rooted in community, and we really do love it.
Within grocery then, several multi-year capital projects have either been completed this year or are very close to completion. Investments in Twinings both in Poland and in the UK have increased capacity, and also give us some optionality and resilience.
We can pack for different markets in both factories. Ovaltine's new production site in Nigeria is up and running.
It supports our growth ambitions in both the domestic, a very large Nigerian market, and the export markets in West Africa. It enables us to operate much more cost-effectively and four times quicker than before.
The chocolate beverage category in Nigeria has 95% household penetration, our products are a consumer staple in a country with 220 million people and where 7 million babies are born every year. Ovaltine is really, really well placed to supply this growing market.
New capacity for Blue Dragon supports international expansion, and that's in Poland, the new bakery line for Tip Top in Western Australia adds capacity and also efficiency in a market where we are really the only scaled baker. Then on to ingredients.
As a reminder, Mauri is a business with large-scale yeast production and a portfolio of specialized bakery ingredients. It combines its strong innovation capabilities, and they're very good, with its established routes to market, and both those are combined to drive growth.
This year, we continue to expand production in attractive markets with structural growth. Our new fresh yeast plant in India will meet fast-growing demand for bakery products.
The market's growing at about 6% a year as diets shift from rice to wheat-based food. That's another one of these global trends.
With strong population growth and bread consumption per capita still low, there's significant headroom for future growth, and we've finally got the capacity we need to play significantly in that market. In Australia, we completed our new flour mill outside Melbourne.
This cements our position in the southeast of Australia, where demand for flour continues to grow with population. It also allows us to close two existing sites, greatly reducing our fixed overhead costs and driving efficiency.
As Joana set out, it was a tougher year for our bakery ingredients business in the US, where there was weaker demand. We do believe that some of this is the impact of GLP-1s, and on top of that, in specialty yeast, there was subdued demand in the alcohol beverage sector, resulting in lower production and destocking.
I may have said it in the past, but we provide a majority of the special yeast to the Scotch whisky market in this country. We expect both of these markets to stabilize, possibly at lower levels than at peak.
Our portfolio of specialty ingredient business then, the other part of our ingredients portfolio, ABFI, performed well this year with both volume and profit growth. We focus on three growth markets: food and beverage, health and nutrition, and pharmaceuticals, which are both actives and also excipients.
In this year, in all our target markets, we focused on increasing sales coverage, adding technical capability to strengthen our technology platforms, and accelerating innovation. We also enhanced a number of capabilities within the business to support the next phase of growth, for example, the new customer fulfillment center in our enzyme factory in Finland.
Acquisitions are another key element of our growth strategy, hence the acquisition of Elementis Pharma this year. That strengthens our position in the growing digestive health market, particularly antacids, milk of magnesia.
Demand is growing strongly from those people who have tummy aches as a consequence of their GLP-1 habit. I do believe there's a lot more to come from our specialty ingredients businesses in the future.
On to sugar then, and this first slide is a reminder that we have two very distinct sugar businesses. Africa is a long-term growth opportunity.
We continue to grow sales of our leading retail brands. The business is supported by favorable demographics and opportunities for continuous improvement in our commercial, our operational, and our agricultural performances.
In all those three areas, we did well this year. The opportunity in Africa is not just sugar, although we have to be disciplined, it's also in co-products such as ethanol and electricity.
Across in Europe, we own our UK and Spanish sugar businesses for their cash generation on average. In the UK, we're the market leader with a structural cost advantage, our assets are well invested, so that capex is really only spent on high-returning projects, particularly those to reduce energy costs, and there's a big project that's commissioning now at Wissington to reduce gas use.
Last year, we restructured our Spanish operations to focus on back-to-back refining contracts, where we've only got one factory left in Spain which is processing beet, the rest of the operation is a refining business. This year, we're underway with the restructuring of our UK footprint to go from four factories down to three.
This will take out significant cost and increase the utilization of the other three remaining factories. Both of these actions will ensure we're well placed when the market turns.
For now, the environment in Europe does continue to be challenging. As Joana explained, losses in European sugar this year were because of lower average sugar prices and because we recognize large onerous contract provisions at year-end.
Looking ahead in Europe, there are early signs of recovery in European sugar prices, and there are reasons that these signs should continue to be evident. European sugar production for the current campaign is estimated to be down significantly, more than 20%, and higher world sugar prices make it less likely that imports will fill the gap in domestic supply cheaply.
In 2027, our results won't really benefit from the higher European sugar prices, because this year's customer contracting is nearly complete, at least in the UK. In Spain, there may be more of an opportunity because there's a bigger spot market in the Spanish market.
In '27, of course, we have ongoing exposure in the UK in particular to really high gas prices. We should see higher sugar prices in future years.
We really believe we're going to see those, and gas prices will eventually come down. In Africa, there were short-term disruptions to performance this year in South Africa, where we had a strike and some problems with import tariffs, and then in Tanzania, again, that was rain-related at the beginning of the season.
Joana highlighted that, too. We made good progress in Tanzania, and this is really the important bit, with the commissioning of the new sugar mill.
It's a very large, very complex project. It doubles our existing capacity and allows us to meet a fast-growing demand in a market where everything we sell is branded and premium.
As I said earlier, co-products are another growth opportunity, and we have invested in some important projects. Again in Tanzania, we've built a new distillery to take all the molasses from the new sugar factory and turn it into potable alcohol, and that is now complete and beginning to sell potable alcohol.
Then in Eswatini, we have an ongoing project which will allow us to sell significant quantities of electricity generated from bagasse into the national grid, and that's on the basis of a long-term contract. Agriculture then.
Our focus within agriculture is on higher-value specialty businesses like Premier Nutrition, which is pictured here, which grew very nicely last year. It's got a very good recent track record.
We took the decision in the year to exit UK compound feed business. This will improve profitability and free up, as I mentioned before, low-returning capital.
We've already sold two of the mills. We'll finalize the future of the remainder in, I think, the first half of 2027.
Going forward, this leaves us with an attractive portfolio of value-added products and services, particularly the enzyme business, the phytase enzyme business, which is a nice, global, value-added business. We see good growth potential in our specialty animal nutrition businesses more generally.
We've also begun building a presence in pet care in this country, and in dairy, we continue to develop a full-service offering for dairy farmers, Estera. That's going well.
Thank you for your patience so far, just a summary. Looking ahead, I said at the outset, we remain focused on what we can control.
Across the group, there are some headwinds which, quite frankly, we can't control. We'll continue to deliver operational improvements and strategic projects that will deliver growth.
Primark will continue to strengthen its value proposition and execute on new avenues for growth. AB Foods will continue to drive growth from strongly managed brands and businesses.
There'll be tailwinds from the integration of UK bakeries, there'll be improved profitability from European sugar, and a focus on higher-value added areas in agriculture. Our capital projects, including stores and depots in Primark and capacity and capabilities in AB Foods, will contribute meaningfully to growth over many years.
Delivering the demerger in December 2027 will support long-term value creation as well. Taken together, we have good reasons to be confident in the medium, long-term outlook for Primark and AB Foods.
With that, let me hand over to you for your interrogation. Thank you.
You choose.
James.
John Stevenson
Thank you, sir. John Stevenson at Peel Hunt.
New to Primark, I've got a couple of questions on Primark if that's okay, and I know you get probably too many questions on Primark. Interested on the Iconic Value launch obviously into autumn/winter.
Is the implication here stronger Q4 and a good build into next year? Then the second question, just on the economics of home delivery and how it stacks up.
Again sort of new to the business, interested in how you think about typical basket size, number of items and product discovery in-store, and how do you replicate that online, where do you need to set that online delivery, and what are you planning for returns rates?
George Weston
I think this is a good question to pass over to my learned friend on my left.
Eoin Tonge
Yeah. Look, I think, yeah, we've got good momentum with the Iconic Value investment, and as I said before, it is across all our markets.
It's not just a UK-specific trend, I think. We do have good cautious confidence around what that will mean from momentum.
We shouldn't underestimate that the world is still a little bit sort of a complicated place out there, but I think that investment really should stand us in very good stead into this Q4 and beyond. On the home delivery omni profitability, well, I think look, some of it's what I said earlier, I think we've seen in the Click & Collect that the basket sizes are well ahead of store basket sizes on average, right?
Obviously we get a broader church into our stores, but we've seen that. With who we believe we're going after here, we believe we can target a higher than even the Click & Collect basket sizes.
We're looking for higher than the basket sizes that we've had in Click & Collect. Sort of the rest of the economics stack up the way I described.
Aim to get good basket sizes, aim to get incrementality, aim to get good efficiencies through marketing and customer acquisition that will also help the stores, and then pass on charges. Now if I take a summary of that, that's maybe what you're asking here is, I don't see a reasons why this should not be materially dilutive to group operating margin once we get to a steady state.
That's the way we're setting this up, and that's important.
John Stevenson
Fantastic. Is there a number yet in terms of that sort of minimum basket size?
Eoin Tonge
No. To be honest with you, I think we've given quite a lot away in terms of what the proposition is.
I don't think we want to be giving more away at this point in time. We think it's going to be great, a lot of people asking for it, a lot of people excited about it, and I think it's going to go well, but we also want to leave a little bit behind for the customer when we launch it.
Warwick.
Warwick Okines
Thank you. Morning.
Warwick Okines, BNP Paribas. I've got two on Primark as well actually, please, Eoin.
I think earlier a few months ago, you said that you were buying for like-for-like growth in '27, but with the pretty warm start to autumn/winter, how confident are you that you've got tight enough inventories to win back the markdown that you lost last year? Secondly, just following on from John's question on Iconic Value, what decline in ASPs are you expecting in '27 from your price investments?
Eoin Tonge
Got to keep going. Yeah.
You're you're all right that the the year our financial year didn't start off great, right? The back end of September was fantastic for everything except selling clothes with with the heat, unseasonal warmth in in in in in the UK and and all other markets.
We've got a bit of recovery to do on that, but I think we've got good momentum. Not particularly anxious about inventories, as you will have seen in the in Joana's presentation.
Our inventory level going into this year is is good, it's strong, it's and it's tight. I feel we feel pretty good.
Feel pretty good about markdown levels and and and so on. A bit to recover on the gap of the the last couple of years, but as I said to the previous question, sort of, decent momentum.
We'll have to see how the next few, obviously quite important weeks develop, but at the moment, it feels it feels all right. The the decline in ASP in the year, it's I'm just trying to think what the decline in ASP is year across the whole thing.
It's a couple of percent or so, roughly across the whole group. Yeah.
Richard.
Richard Chamberlain
Thanks. Morning.
It's Richard Chamberlain from RBC. A couple of quick ones on Primark, if that's all right, and then one on the grocery side.
Eoin, I wonder if you can just talk about how you're hedged on FX for the coming year. Is that sort of pretty much fully hedged now on the cost side, obviously in light of the recent euro weakness against the dollar?
Then I guess the operating margin now, 10%, is more sort of towards the lower range of where it's been. How do you see that evolving over the kind of medium term?
I guess it's a bit hard to say, but should we think that now is more sort of mid- to upper range of where it's likely to be in your mind? Then, George, on the US cooking oils, it sounds like you see that as a sort of cyclical development at the moment.
Is that right? It's just taking time for pressure on customers to ease?
I think you mentioned the other softer parts of grocery were more sort of temporary in nature, but the duration of that downturn might last a little bit longer. Is that right?
George Weston
Sorry, go Joana, go for it. I think Mazola is more cyclical, if that's the right word, as our consumer finds a way to more income and maybe some of the quite frankly just fear of the current administration kind of works through.
I think that business will come back. What you're seeing at the moment is people still buying into Mazola, but they're using it more often and they're also not entertaining with their friends, which are occasions when quite a lot of cooking oil gets used.
It feels like those two things will go away. We don't see that community as buying into GLP-1s in any significant way, no reason to think that we won't see a rebound there.
I think in food service, I think there may be a little bit more of a structural shift. I think there are two different things.
There is declining disposable income reducing food service volume, particularly at the fast-food end, and that will come back. Then I think there's a GLP-1 effect, call it 5%, 10%.
I don't think that will come back. Eoin, over to you.
Joana Edwards
I'll cover the hedge and operating margin, if that's all right. In terms of hedging FX for the year, as we are right into the year, the hedging for this year is pretty much covered.
I know you've expressed some concerns around the euro-dollar, and there will be some turbulence in the coming months, but we are pretty much hedged for the year. On the margin and the guidance has stayed at around the 10%, 10.2% for FY 2026, that feels right, but as we said it before, it's about like-for-like growth.
We're not going to be medium long-term what's the right margin. There's a lot of growth opportunities that all the investment that is going through should be driving that like-for-like, and with like-for-like, we'll see the leverage coming through as well.
Not guiding medium long term, but feel confident with the margins as they are.
Eoin Tonge
Exactly. That's what I would say.
We're not giving a number for medium to longer term, but everything that we talked about here, driving growth, taking costs out, but at the same time continuing to invest in the proposition, obviously that's looking to try and improve the business.
Joana Edwards
Yeah. Yeah.
Eoin Tonge
Okay.
George Weston
Try again.
Monique Pollard
This is working, actually.
Joana Edwards
We can hear you
George Weston
anyway.
Monique Pollard
Okay. It's morning from Citi.
I had one question on Primark for Owen, and then a couple on the rest of the business. The first question on Primark, the highly automated warehouse in Sheffield, I was just interested in when that will be operational, and whether there'll be any period of sort of dual running costs or ramp-up of inventory that we need to sort of consider for this year as a result of that.
The second question, on the US oils business, just wondering if the results in the near term could actually could US oils business in the near term? Then the final question was just on the share buyback.
Obviously, you've come in this year net debt to EBITDA below your 1.5 times, at 1.1. Sort of just trying to understand the decision not to do the buyback, whether it's just to do with the demerger, etcetera.
Yeah.
George Weston
It's not really to do with the demerger, but we do want to go into separation with two well-financed businesses, both with strong balance sheets, maybe there's a little bit of something there. It's much more to do with just we have a policy that when we have surplus capital by our definition, we'll return it, and we're not really in that place.
Joana Edwards
Yeah, 1.5 is the upper end. We say if we're between 1 and 1.5, then that we don't necessarily consider we have surplus cash.
We've returned a lot. We've returned £1.9 billion already.
I think it's hard when you return year-on-year, the expectation is you'll continue. We are very clear, this is not about every year we will return, it's if we feel we have surplus cash.
George Weston
Midterms, it's harder to see the transmission mechanism that gets from Democrats taking at least one house, maybe two, in Congress through to increased confidence in the Hispanic population and increased disposable income. I think the most likely one is resolution of the Gulf, the Straits of Hormuz blockage leading to gas prices coming down and diesel prices coming down.
That will feed through to a population who, like everyone else in the States, spends a fair chunk of money on transport. Driving themselves round.
No, anyway.
Eoin Tonge
Maybe I'll describe the Sheffield, maybe I'll hand over to Joana on sort of kind of what that means for guidance, but it is highly automated facility, and it's actually active at the moment, actually, when we take it over, there's not a huge amount to do for us to put it into work. There's a bit of work for us to do to put our systems in and so on, but it's not like it's a significant piece of work.
There will be some dual running costs, and obviously we need to scale the facility up, we'd expect to be kind of taking kind of control of the facility sometime in the middle of next year, basically. Yeah.
Joana Edwards
There will be some one-off costs that we will have. They are included in the guidance.
You probably would have noticed that the majority of the actual cash related to Sheffield was taken in FY 2026. We took it just before the year-end, about £75 million.
It's included in the guidance, and it's not very material, and the majority of the cash was spent in FY 2026, Monique.
George Weston
Yeah. Matt.
Matt Clements
Hi. Matt Clothier from Barclays.
Maybe one for George to start off with. Capital investment cycle, we've heard a lot today about capacity additions, and then we've just heard that the timing of the DC spend was in this year, but then capex guidance for next year is to be flat.
How do we think about kind of multi-year capital investment cycles? Do we expect capex to moderate year after next?
George Weston
Yeah. Capex is flat in '27, the year we're in, really more to do with the final payments for projects which are now essentially complete, than payments for work that is just starting.
There will still be some projects to complete in following years, but it'll be lower.
Joana Edwards
There's
George Weston
more to do in Australia, the Eswatini project will run over into '28,
Joana Edwards
and
George Weston
Zambia payments will run into '28, but the actual facility will be finished in '27. It'll come down.
Matt Clements
Okay. Thank you.
Then two questions on Primark, if that's okay. First one, on the decision to kind of pause expansion in the US, just kind of why now is the right time, kind of what's changed in your year of kind of in your position, what you've seen that's led to that decision?
The second question, on any near-term assumptions or impact you've seen around social unrest in some of your key European markets. Thank you.
Eoin Tonge
I'll go for both of those. I think two main things about sort of how we're kind of thinking about the US.
Sort of one is, we actually just have gone through a kind of significant growth phase, and so I think, kind of consolidating when you go through those phase, sort of there's always a bit of makes sense. I think the second thing, which is probably the more important thing is, we've done an awful lot of work, I talked about this last year, but we've done an awful lot of work in terms of how we think we can win in the US, and I think we've got to give that a go, properly with the new and large store estate.
We have a much better sense of who the target consumer is. We, as I said in the presentation, we've done a good bit of re-ranging in our stores, aligned to that target consumer.
Price is at the moment, although I'd say things have calmed down, the US has gone through almost turmoil, I would say, on tariffs, right? It's massive disruption across the marketplace in terms of what tariffs have done to prices, and sort of that calming down.
I think we really have to give our proposition a good go with a meaningful store estate that we have now, 50 stores. As I said before, I think the sort of the medium term, is the sort of the vision for the US is still strong.
I do think it would help with an omnichannel support, along the lines of why I described for the UK. It's the same principles, right?
In that it helps with your cost of customer acquisition. That's behind that.
Look, social unrest in Europe is concerning. We've had a few incidents with our stores, nothing thankfully too bad, but no one's immune unfortunately to a riot.
Obviously, look, the usual thing you would expect me to say is we're focusing on the protection of our people and so on when those situations happen. A little bit unfortunately, it's all a little bit too common in some of the countries that we find ourselves defending.
We have had some disruption. Can't get away from that, we'll just have to see how the next few weeks develop over the next period of time.
George Weston
Yeah.
Sreedhar.
Sreedhar Mahamkali
Thank you. Sreedhar Mahamkali from UBS.
Just a couple of follow-ups to Matt's questions, please, and then a separate one. On capex, a helpful commentary on AB Foods into '28.
Can you just give us an idea how we should think about Primark into '28 and perhaps beyond? Eoin, I think you're still reiterating 4% to 5% space growth despite a bit of a pause in the US.
Which markets are going to pick up the slack if that was there, if you could talk through? Then on food, Allied Bakeries and Hovis, I understand how you're excited about the Hovis business, but if you could talk through a little bit about milestones.
Your ambition was to become a profitable bakery business combined, the kind of milestones and time taken to get there. Thank you.
George Weston
Do you want to do the first two?
Eoin Tonge
Why don't you? Sure.
I I think it's a good question on on the capex for 2028. I don't want to be sort of I don't want to be too prescriptive, but just kind of give some themes, I would say, like, and it kind of relates a little bit to the second question actually, which is, if we see a little bit more of our shift to franchise expansion, which obviously low capital, you would argue that obviously that that that mix in will will would shift a little bit in the next couple of years.
Obviously, if we don't have the same US and we have more expansion in Saudi Arabia and Mexico, obviously that is a reduction reduction in our capital. There's there's So, but I'll come back to your second question specifically.
We've also we're probably coming through We've had a fair bow wave, I would say, of investment in depots, so, and there's still some this year. Obviously we've talked about Sheffield, although some of that was last year, as I say, we've still got to do some this year to get it up and running.
We're we're completing our depot in Italy this year as well, but we've have kind of come towards the end of some of the automation spend. I think, if I kind of take those two big themes, I think we're, it's more it's more sort of tipped to to less capex in in the kind of FY 2028, FY 2029.
As you would think, we'll have a step-up in technology spend. Now technology spend tends to be in but more in opex than it is in capex, so, but I do think we'll have a step-up there.
On the countries, yeah, look, outside of franchise, I think is probably where your question is, because I think the franchise sort of expansion is is a bit more clearer, I think, maybe. I think we've still got good opportunities in our Southern European markets, so, we're still opening good stores in in Spain and Portugal, and in Italy and in France.
We've got quite a lot of white space in in Central and Eastern Europe. We've had particular good expansion in Poland and Saudi Arabia in the years year just gone, we still see quite Oh sorry, and Did I say Saudi Arabia?
Poland and Romania. I so I think that they're that that's the that's the general shape of where I still think there's quite a lot of areas to grow.
Right.
George Weston
Oh sorry, was there
Eoin Tonge
Hovis? Yeah.
George Weston
Okay. There's a big date sometime around Easter, where we turn two order systems into one, two routes into one, and we end up with a bakery network to supply those, which is a single bakery network.
That's the date we're aiming towards. It'll be the second half, at that point we start to make savings.
It's another four, five months' worth of work.
Yeah. Geoff, and Clive.
George Weston
Geoff, then Clive. Sorry.
Eoin Tonge
Sorry,
Geoff Lowery
Clive. Thank you.
Sorry, Geoff Lowery, Rothschild & Co Redburn. Slightly big picture question on the sort of theme of capital deployment and the £1.6 billion and sort of really big projects, trying to think through what that means for future revenue, capacity, and particularly operational gearing as you start to fill it up.
Just very aware of the time gap between capital in the ground and return on that capital. Then second, on the Primark side, can you just help us understand where you're having those successes?
What is it? Is it an extra unit in the basket?
Is it better conversion of footfall? Is it more footfall?
A slightly naughty one, when you're physically investing in price, what's happening to the absolute gross profit? I appreciate it's just a subset of your business at the moment, but keen to really understand the elasticities.
Thank you.
George Weston
Okay. We will start to see revenue and profit benefits from the investments back half of this year and into next year.
I think we've probably given ourselves capacity for about in most cases, 3 years' worth of growth or more. In some places, we've simply put down a starting point.
Will we add more band dryers in Nigeria as we grow our business there? Almost certainly.
The sugar factory in Tanzania will be full straightaway. The ethanol plant will be full over a couple of years.
Western Australia is built with lots of capacity to come. It's reasonably quick.
India, I think we'll fill up within about 3 years, but again, this is just the first capacity on a site that's built for expansion. It's a combination of returns to these projects, which I think are 2 and 3 years out, and when we sign these off, we sign them on a kind of 3-year return basis, but in a number of places, they are kind of points of entry with more to come behind.
I think that And then
Eoin Tonge
Yeah. I think we've had more successes with visits and transactions than we have with conversion.
I think there's still more to do in conversion. If you think of a lot of the activities we've had in improving our style credentials in womenswear or indeed marketing, it's sort of has drawn more people into the store, so that's possibly the more obvious.
As I say, I think we've still got a little bit more to do on conversion, and some of the merchandising we're doing in stores at the moment, I think we'll speak to that. I think most of the wins have been in transactions rather than conversion.
Then items in basket. I think on your second question, gross profit, look, obviously we've got to be quite surgical on this, we're very careful in terms of how we invest.
We do target a certain level of volume uplift which goes to sort of cover the price investment, and we've seen pretty good elasticity in those regards actually on the Iconic Value.
George Weston
Just on what we're seeing with lower prices, we're fighting an environment where basket sizes are down, I suspect, everywhere. Quite where the return is coming from, we know that the volume uplifts on the products are really good, but we've seen footfall fine, basket sizes down.
That's just the environment we're in, I think. Until we get through this consumer squeeze, I think it'll be harder to answer your question properly.
Clive. Sorry.
Thank you. One one for you, George, and then one for Eoin, maybe.
Firstly, you mentioned diet suppressant drugs several times through your presentation today. In addition to oils and sugar, you've got a bakery and bakery ingredients business.
To what extent is that a headwind for your returns going forward in terms of the sunk investment you've made? To what extent does it influence your ongoing M&A?
Because medium-term, ROIC and returns feel pretty important to AB
George Weston
Foods. Then
for Eoin, you both talked about consumer headwinds, you talked about, Eoin, consumer insights. What are going to be the big themes in apparel to the end of this decade?
As opposed to, is it just continual bumps in the rose, or do you actually have some proper walls to run through? Then just lastly, we've had a quarter of a century of returns data in online apparel.
How do you feel about that? Because that tends to make a bit of a difference.
George Weston
I think GLP-1s are as much as an opportunity as they are a threat. I think both in ingredients, but also in the better bits of grocery, we're always looking for change.
Commoditization is our enemy, and we've got big chunk of population now looking to eat different things in different ways, and it's really down to us and our branded businesses in particular, both within grocery and then the ingredients businesses, to find solutions to new need states. We're doing a very good job in tea.
Interesting communication challenge about whether you tell people in different markets what the herbal mix tea is actually about or whether you just assume that they know it. In the UK, for example, people don't like being told that they're on a GLP-1 diet.
In the States, they're absolutely fine, boast about it. We've got the opportunity for innovation.
It's true in ingredients, too, where health and wellness, again, requires kind of changes in fashion, changes in theory about how we're going to live forever. In particular, we're looking for things to make our GLP-1 journey easier.
Obviously, we're looking for more protein and more fiber, but we are selling a ton more Milk of Magnesia because it works really well in settling down tummies which aren't feeling great because GLP-1 want to do their stuff and the protein that you're on, etcetera. I think it's an opportunity.
In a market where we don't have population growth in many places, we don't have income growth in lots of places, we need these changes. You can either sit there and go, "Well, it's a bit of a bugger if you're selling sugar into soft drinks," or you can say, "Hey, our job is to delight the consumer.
Let's go do that instead." There are parts of ABF.
Flour milling in Australia will be down a bit, but there's population growth. That's fine.
I think UK sugar is more affected at the moment by people exporting food manufacturing to Europe, probably on the back of high energy costs, than it is any dietary shift. Oils in food service in the States, I've talked about.
There are some places where life has got harder, but there are some where just a wall of opportunity has been opened up.
Eoin Tonge
I'll have a go at some sort of visionary answer to your first question. Look, as sort of fashion trends sort of move pretty fast, but there's some trends that I think are kind of going to stay.
The less formal, and more informal formal dressing is I think become more. This is the most formal setting I've been in for a long time.
I think people are much more comfortable dressing in different ways, in different settings, and I don't think that's going to sort of change, and I think sort of the youth dynamics of that is it will only just kind of keep driving that. Athleisure is another kind of trend that I think is only going to get bigger and bigger, and it kind of sort of merges a little bit into sort of this leisurewear kind of approach that you see more of.
Look, the aim of a lot of retailers is to try and kind of get something distinctive in fashion. I think the years of sort of what people used to call fast fashion are sort of over to a certain extent.
I think consumers demand more. I think true value operators like ourselves are just not fast fashion, and I think that continues.
I think omnichannel truly is omnichannel, i.e., people are looking for both an online and store experience, and I think that will continue. They would be the things that I think about that.
Clearly, the whole AI world is going to disrupt marketing and customer engagement. A lot of people do their searching through AI, rather now through the kind of more traditional search engines, so that obviously changes a whole way we're going to be starting to engage with customers, and that's only going to keep on developing, right?
We all know that as well. Which is good for us to a certain extent, because in some ways we've kind of come late to the party, we can sometimes, hopefully kind of bypass a little bit of the more traditional routes to market.
Look, returns is a fact of life. By the way, I think the other theme is going to be of circularity.
I do believe circularity is going to become more and more important than just what people purely call sustainability, but that's my very personal held view. Just on returns, I think look, it's a fact of life in terms of when you do home delivery.
I think the world is becoming a little bit more sensible in that space, right, in terms of trying to discourage people from overbuying and then over-returning. I think you've seen that with a lot of retailers in space, but obviously we have to factor it into the whole operation, everything I spoke about earlier.
Yeah.
Anubhav Malhotra
Hi, it's Anubhav Malhotra from Panmure Liberum. I have a couple, if you don't mind.
Firstly, on the sugar business, the nature of that business, you book your selling prices early and the costs come later and you fix them later, and that's probably part of the reason why you have had to book onerous provisions in the contracts. Is there any way that can be fixed and your approach for two-year contracts, have you changed that approach given the world is a lot more volatile place in terms of the outlook for costs going forward?
Then secondly, on Primark, on the buying margins, is part of the reduction in average prices being funded by buying margin and how much of it is being funded by buying margin, if you can give us an example there? What are you seeing going forward in terms of cost inflation coming through in factory gate prices?
Thank you.
George Weston
You ask a very good question about the timing differences between particularly when we contract for sugar beet and when we sell that sugar beet. We take all the risk of price movement through that period.
Now two-year contracts, multi-year contracts, we do more of them than we did in an attempt to even out some of the risk profile we've got. Quite frankly, I wish we could do more of that than we can at the moment.
I also wish in the UK that it was a bit more Spanish and that there was a bigger element of spot. Now that's easy to want when the market's rising, and we're always very glad in the UK we don't have spot contracts when the market's falling.
Some more complexity, some more optionality than what we largely have at the moment, is we have a fixed cost of beet, and we have a fairly fixed selling price for most of what we sell, but a year on. That's the dislocated bit.
Gas, there are different ways of covering gas. Gas never used to move around so much, but we now cover gas as an element in a contract when we sign the contract, so that takes some of the risk out of it.
In British Sugar in particular, I think we take more of the commercial risk than either the farmer supplier or the customer. And Is there any way to offset that?
Trying to build more contracts in which are linked maybe to world sugar prices, more contracts which cover more years, and maybe some upside and downside, more upside, downside sharing with the farmers. Low sugar beet price, but with added benefit if the prices move.
We do some of it in all those areas, it would be nice to be able to do more.
Joana Edwards
There has been quite a bit of progress.
George Weston
Yeah. Sure.
Joana Edwards
Yeah.
George Weston
We really haven't been sitting there. I talked about sort of self-help in the area where we could help ourselves in sugar, that has been one example.
The new sugar contract has a lot more risk sharing in it than the old ones.
Joana Edwards
Buying margin.
George Weston
Oh, margin. Buying margin.
Eoin Tonge
I'll have a go at that. I think some of it was funded by margin.
I think there's always opportunity for more of it to be funded by margin, but we would have worked specifically on certain lines in that regard. That's probably the best way to describe that answer.
I think factory gate prices obviously did increase, really since the beginning of the war, there's been pressure on underlying fabric costs, etcetera, and so on. We've had to kind of navigate through that as well.
Yeah.
George Weston
I think it's well worth emphasizing though that we believe that there is a lot of cost to be released from the Primark supply chain, both the bits that we control and also the effectiveness of our buying. We don't have to make a decision, is it margin or is it sales volume.
What we're trying to do is to drive price through cost release.
Joana Edwards
There's
George Weston
also a lot of waste in the system in terms of putting the wrong product in a store. Our accuracy of our fulfillment is not good enough, and we can improve that, and RFID will be an enormous step towards that.
Now it's not waste as you throw things away, but it's waste in customer coming into the shop and can't finding the size that she wants in particular. It's also waste in having to take summer product off the shelves across the whole of Spain on a single date, rather than keeping the Mediterranean stores with summer ranges for another 3 or 4 weeks.
There's so much opportunity, as Eoin said, to simplify the business, to reduce the cost of the business, and to use that to drive like-for-like through price.
Joana Edwards
Yeah.
Operator
We have a question from the phone lines. Please stand by.
Your question comes from Cédric Norest from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Cédric Norest
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two, if that's okay.
The first one would be on Primark sourcing. There has been recent news around protests creating supply chain disruption in Bangladesh.
Could you just comment on whether Primark has experienced any disruption so far, which is ahead of the key holiday season, and perhaps provide some indications on the scale of your sourcing exposure in the country? Then on agentic e-commerce, if I may, agents such as Meta Muse should arguably improve price discovery and make Primark's value proposition even more visible to consumers.
On the other hand, could further increase price transparency and therefore, somehow intensify competition. Do you see this primarily as an opportunity to improve your visibility and to acquire new consumers?
Or do you see a risk that it creates a race to the bottom with price becoming even more important in consumers' purchasing decisions? Thank you.
Eoin Tonge
Two two very good questions. Look, yeah, more recent disruption in Bangladesh is actually, when I say it's more recently, it's literally very recent, and in relation to wage protests, and they do hear it happen on a periodic basis.
At this point in time, we don't think it's going to have an impact. It's too late anyway for disruption for peak trade.
We did actually have more significant disruption in Bangladesh a few months back actually, around gas shortages and that was more material, I would say, which we've had to navigate through. Then I think I got most of your question on the sort of agentic search and agentic marketing.
Look, yeah, I think we're going to have to work hard at it, like everyone's going to have to work hard to kind of improve your visibility. I think if you've got good product and you've got good ways of getting your visibility in these platforms, I think you can do well.
My belief is that we can do a good job in terms of improving our visibility, rather than being a race to the bottom.
George Weston
I'd just add that we've been frustrated for years and years and years by the nature of the wage renegotiations in Bangladesh. We think that they are more confrontational than really they need to be.
We've worked hard and led the retail industry in trying to ensure that wages in Bangladesh are fair and working conditions are safe. We look at these periods of violence as real failure of the garment industry and its leadership in Bangladesh.
It shouldn't get to this.
Operator
Thank you. We will take our next question.
The question comes from Georgina Johanan from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Georgina Johanan
Hi, thanks for taking my questions on the phone. I had two, please, and both related to the online proposition, home delivery.
When you open up the new site, I just wanted to understand, and maybe you could talk a little bit about how flexible that home delivery stock pool is going to be, and how integrated or not that's going to be with the stores, please, i.e., if you ended up overstocked for online, could you shift the product back to stores, and vice versa? Then the second question was just around your sort of confidence on the incrementality of that offer, and sort of talking about the larger basket sizes from Click & Collect, and so on.
Is what you're saying that it's actually a different and new customer that's coming in to shop for Click & Collect, and the fact that it's larger basket sizes, is that kind of indicative of a higher-income demographic? Effectively, is that what you're targeting with home delivery, or would that be the wrong way to think about it, please?
Thank you.
Eoin Tonge
If I take the last question first, I think it sort of the right way to think about it. I wouldn't necessarily just call it higher income, but what we're seeing in Click & Collect, yeah, definitely is a different type of customer.
A customer that does shop in Primark already, but prefers to shop also through this way, and also would also tend to shop elsewhere. As a result, we're getting a little bit more of their wallet, and that's kind of the theme for home delivery, same theme.
The work we've done in the analysis here is what we've got a considerable number of customers who shop with us on a very infrequent basis. It's not that we're trying to convince people who just don't like Primark, they actually do shop in Primark, they just don't shop in Primark very frequently.
I think this gives them a channel with convenience that they prefer, or the way they shop. I do think you've got that right, Georgina, in terms of the way to think about it.
The stock pool, look, this isn't the first rodeo for a retailer to kind of run home delivery in stores, right? Yes, it's a different stock pool because obviously it's single pick fulfillment versus the pack fulfillment in stores.
Obviously we've got to manage that well and manage that effectively, but we're already doing that with Click & Collect, we're already managing that way of stock pool. It comes back to something that George was sort of picking on there, which is as we get more sophisticated and cleaner with our stock flow, including through RFID, that becomes better and more effectively managed.
You're absolutely right that we'll have to manage those stock pools well.
Georgina Johanan
Thanks so much.
Eoin Tonge
Thank you.
Operator
There are no further questions from the phone lines. I will hand back to the room.
George Weston
Thank you. One last chance for any further questions.
We have taken a lot of your time, perhaps everyone would prefer another cup of tea. If not, thank you very much indeed, and we will be seeing more of each other, I think, over the next 12 months.
Joana Edwards
Yes.
George Weston
Than any other time in our history, and maybe you'll send some of your colleagues along. Thank you.
Joana Edwards
Thank you, all.
George Weston
Thank you. Thank you.
Bye. Bye.
Bye-bye. Bye.
Bye.
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