Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund

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Q4 FY2020 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 24, 2021

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Q4 and Full Year 2020 Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

After the speakers presentation there will be a question and answer session. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

I would now like to hand the conference over to Rohit Bhardwaj, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Rohit Bhardwaj

Thank you, Christine. Good morning, everyone.

We thank you for joining us today. I hope that all of you are staying safe and are well.

As you know, Mark Davis is retiring at the end of this week, and Scott Rook will be our new President and Chief Executive Officer. So after hosting roughly 60 earnings calls with Mark, it's my pleasure to have Scott on the call today and going forward.

Operator

I'll look into that. My apologies.

Rohit Bhardwaj

Okay. Thank you.

While EBITDA was $44.2 million, distributable cash after maintenance CapEx in the fourth quarter of 2020 was negative $23 million or negative $0.25 per unit. Note that for the full year, cash was $0.64 per unit.

As we said on earlier calls, we expected CapEx to be very high in the fourth quarter due to the deferring of projects and turnarounds from earlier in the year. Maintenance CapEx for the quarter was $34 million or $0.37 per unit.

For the full year, maintenance CapEx was in line with our expectations at $74.4 million. So approximately half of all of our CapEx was spent in Q4.

Distributions declared for the fourth quarter were $0.15 per unit. For the full year, we generated EBITDA of $265.3 million, which includes a realized foreign exchange loss of $5.9 million.

So without this loss, EBITDA from running our business, even during the pandemic, was about $270 million. Now turning to segmented results for the quarter.

SPPC generated revenue of $100.7 million compared with $117.3 million in 2019. The decrease in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 was primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in lower sales volumes for regen and merchant acids.

Scott Rook

Thank you, Rohit. First, let me say, while I've met some of you virtually, I am pleased to have this opportunity to meet the rest of you, albeit virtually.

I look forward to in-person meetings in the not-too-distant future. While we can't give meaningful guidance with the level of uncertainty we still face, the MD&A's outlook section provides additional commentary on some of our current expectations for 2021.

I will touch on some of those, but for the most part, I will try to look a little further ahead to post-COVID possibilities.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC. Your line is open.

Jacob Bout

My first question here is just on the outlook for chlor-alkali. So I guess it's really dependent on the shape of the recovery.

Can you remind us again what the effective capacity is of North Van? And is there anything that would preclude you from ramping from the 175,000 tons mecus to full capacity?

Rohit Bhardwaj

So Jacob, that remains constrained with chlorine and hydrochloric demand. So we could get to about 200,000 mecus.

So we have about 25,000 less than that. We do have the capability to produce more HCL and to move it in the form of chlorine.

So it really depends on those -- on that sector recovering.

Jacob Bout

Right. But is there any -- like how long would it take it to ramp from 175,000 to 200,000?

Is that just about --

Rohit Bhardwaj

It's spontaneous. It can be on a daily base.

We can ramp up any day.

Jacob Bout

Okay. And then on the hydra energy deal, you're talking a bit longer-term here.

But are we correct to think that you could contribute 30,000 tons per year of green hydrogen from North Van?

Rohit Bhardwaj

So North Van is not as big a factor because if you think about the chlor-alkali process, part of the hydrogen goes out in the form of caustic soda. So really, the bigger opportunity is in Brandon in the sodium chlorate facility.

And so this hydro project is actually at Prince George chlorate facility.

Jacob Bout

Got you. And so how much do you think you can contribute?

Rohit Bhardwaj

So Scott mentioned the 55 kilograms per tonne of chlorate. And that plant has a capacity of, call it, 80,000 tonnes, so you can do the math from there.

So about 5%, 6% of that.

Jacob Bout

Okay.

Rohit Bhardwaj

Yes, 5,000 tons.

Jacob Bout

And the ability to convert other facilities?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Well, Brandon might

Scott Rook

Yes. I

Rohit Bhardwaj

Go ahead, Scott. Scott, go ahead.

Scott Rook

Yes. I was just going to say, look, our ability -- so hydrogen use byproducts.

So the ability -- I'll say, if it's there, if the -- we have to capture it and then be able to do something with it. So capture, contain it and move it.

Jacob Bout

Okay. And is there anything that would -- say, in North Van, like are you locked into long-term HCL contracts?

Or

Rohit Bhardwaj

No, it's different to be a contract business.

Jacob Bout

Okay. Last question is just on the WSSC outlook.

You talked about flat year-on-year demand growth. How should we be thinking about long-term organic growth rates?

Or how are you thinking about that?

Scott Rook

Yes. I would say that -- so long-term organic growth rate for our water business on average is 2% to 3%.

We have some of the more specialty products that are growing 5% to 10%, and our larger, more established products on the lower range, probably 2%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Market. Your line is open.

Joel Jackson

A few questions, I'll just do one by one. So if I read throw all the helpful tidbits in your M&A and your guidance, is the way to look at it is that for '21, WSSC is going to be flat.

That seems clear. And that we should see some modest improvements in earnings in both SPPC and Electrochem.

Scott Rook

Yes. I think that's fair.

Joel Jackson

Okay. To dive down a bit more for the ultra pure situation.

So can you talk about what is the impact on '21 from the loss of the customer and you picked up another customer, you've expanded elsewhere. So how much -- what's the loss in '21?

And do you think you'll be able to pick that up in '22? And anything you can provide on the different margin opportunities on the old customer and the new customer would be helpful.

Scott Rook

All right. Thanks.

So here's what I'll share, Joel. This situation is changing very, very rapidly.

The -- and as you know, as you probably did, the semiconductor market is sold out right now. There's very high demand.

And there's like a big need for increased production. And so our ultra-pure business in terms of size and scope, what we've shared before is about one-fourth, 25%, of our asset business.

And so we took a big hit. But we are working, as we shared, that we've gained share with another customer.

We just picked up another customer as well. So I expect that we will be back to where we were -- where we started 2020 in 12 to 24 months and hopefully on the shorter end of that.

But it's changing. I'll say that it's changing a lot.

And so what has happened over the past couple of years is that there have been suppliers in Asia that have added capacity, and we are seeing more competition coming from Asia. But recently, I think the industry is being impacted by shipping delays coming out of Asia.

So it's harder to find containers and there are delays. And that's -- I think that's part of the issue as well.

Rohit Bhardwaj

And Joel, if I can add one thing there. So you would have read as recently as yesterday, the Biden administration is really putting a push on increasing semiconductor production in the U.S.

and trying to get more domestic supply chains. So they're not dependent on others, also very strategic production.

So I think the midterm outlook is very robust. There have been major expansions already announced by couple of the major players, like multibillion-dollar expansions.

So as Scott said, once we get past the short-term stuff, it's really got a very good outlook.

Joel Jackson

My last question would be, Scott and Rohit, so think about the recovery and how you can recover earnings and grow earnings. There's obviously the cyclical, the commodity part.

Caustic soda prices are very low, have to recover, right, eventually. So there's that part of it.

But also what you can do now internally, different actions, different portfolio changes, different productivity programs to try to grow earnings, cut costs, whatever you have to do. Can you talk about that as you look the next few years?

What are your opportunities to monetize on both the commodity cyclical part and on what you can self-help to yourself?

Scott Rook

Well, so Joel, as you recall, we have shared -- we shared early in 2020 that our guidance on EBITDA was going to be in the range of $300 million to $350 million. And once we get past the pandemic, there's no reason to believe that we should not be back in that similar range.

So our strategy is focused on delivering the growth projects that we've talked about. We put that with the market recovery that we expect to see with caustic soda as well as fracking activity.

We combined that with an emphasis on reliability and productivity. And I think we'll be on a good growth trajectory.

Rohit Bhardwaj

And Joel, on the caustic soda part, I mean the expectation is that as the index rises during '21, the average is still going to be, call it, USD 225. So that's about USD 125 per tonne lower than it's average for, let's say, the last 10 years.

So that's -- if you look at that being CAD 160, call it, for that time, all that $35 million, $40 million just to get to its average. And you look at the -- what the industry experts say, it has to continue growing from there because it gets no way close to reinvestment economics to at least it's in the $500.

So -- $500 to $600. So there's a long trajectory, but even just to get to the average, gives us a decent pick.

Joel Jackson

And just finally, there'll also be a North Van turnaround in 2022, correct, every 2 years?

Rohit Bhardwaj

That's right. Yes, that's right.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Ben Isaacson

On a questions and then maybe just a housekeeping item. So on the EC segment, you obviously saw superior sell their assets in the past week.

albeit down in Mexico. They're looking to exit vinyls.

And part of that is the sale of our chlor-alkali assets. And the reasons why both are doing this is to increase the stability or predictability of their free cash flow and ultimately increase their multiple.

When you think about Chemtrade, is there an opportunity to do a strategic review? Or is that -- is potentially selling or divesting some of those assets put to rest right now?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Yes. So I say -- I mean, we do look at -- we look at all our businesses to see what fits -- what makes sense, whether it would be a good value for us.

As you know, we've got some of our assets for sale right now. But I think there are -- I mean, I think superior is very different because they are clearly an energy player, and they want to become a pure-play energy player.

I mean, we are a chemical business. So it's not like we have something that doesn't kind of fit in particularly.

So I think, right, it's a different situation because -- but having said that, Scott's coming new. And so we are going to look at everything with fresher eyes.

And if something makes sense to divest, we will. But it's not an easy story like superior, which is energy player.

So.

Ben Isaacson

Can you just talk a little bit more about the large customer that decided to obtain acid from somewhere else? Is -- how important is that customer?

Do we know why they did that? And what's at risk here?

I mean, is there a risk that we see more? Or is this just kind of normal switching, and every so often, you see some customers kind of play musical change?

Scott Rook

Yes. Well, so first of all, the quality requirements in this space have been getting tighter as our customers are producing smaller chips.

The quality requirements have been increasing exponentially actually. And second, that's combined with increased volume.

So the combination of increased demand and increased quality, I think, was a challenge for our production. We invested last year in several quality improvement projects at all of our sites.

And I'll say, as a result of that, I think we were able to pick up share with one customer and gain another one. But there was another supplier, I think, that picked up -- or that share could be supplied coming out of Asia.

And in terms of the scope of it, as I said, our ultra pure business is about one-fourth of the acid business. And again, look, all I can say is that I think that -- so I think we're going to have competition from Asia.

I think that's not going to go away. But I think what we'll be there is our quality has to be at point when we meet the demands of our customers.

And we're committed to doing that. And we'll make sure that we've got the capacity and the reliability and quality to do that.

So we have a short break here in terms of being sold out, and we have been sold out with our ultra-pure business the last couple of years. And so we're going to use this break to ensure that we have -- I'll say, that our quality and reliability is exactly where it needs to be for our customers to hit their expectations for the next 2 to 3 years.

Ben Isaacson

And then just a housekeeping item. On corporate expenses, it just caught me a little offguard.

It was a bit higher than -- or I guess, a bit lower than I thought. What's the good run rate for your corporate EBITDA?

And are there any one-offs that we should be thinking about either for Q1 or for 2021 as a whole?

Rohit Bhardwaj

So firstly, a good run rate is about $65 million to $70 million. And if you look at where we came in this year, once you strip out some of these items we talked about, including there was a $6 million realized foreign exchange loss.

When you strip that out, we actually does fall back into that range. So as far -- and when I look ahead, the one moving part always is our outlook because these are three year plans.

You've got to run Monte Carlo simulations and come up with these accruals. And they can fluctuate quite widely.

And really what matters is what they are at the end of the period when they get paid out. But in that journey, to get there is sometimes up and down, so that's a hard one to me to predict.

But other than that, I think normally, $65 million, $70 million is good. And when I look ahead into next year, I don't -- I mean, I can't think of anything that would be coming in the horizon, but the nature of some of these things is that it's they're hard to predict.

But looking right now, I can't really think of anything that's unusual, that might come up.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Steve Hansen

Just a couple for me, guys. First, Scott or Rohit, I think you mentioned some growth CapEx on PAC and ACH.

Can you just give us a sense for the timing on those projects and the rough cost?

Scott Rook

Yes. So they're -- well, we're debottlenecking two of our sites.

The CapEx on that is relatively small, and those expansions are being completed early this year. So the expansions that we're working on will be in the first half.

And they will basically enable us to keep up with the growth and demand that we see this year. The PAC and ACH expansions and reason we mentioned that, that is -- for us, it is a relatively, relatively minor expansion.

But this is a growing part of the water business. That's why we wanted to include it on here.

And we have several, I'll say, of the products that are growing faster than the regular rate.

Steve Hansen

Just sticking to water. In the past, going back a year, 18 months now, one of the challenges you did face was the escalating raw material costs relative to the pricing.

And in your comments, you suggested that you expect to be able to offset that again. Do you have confidence in that?

I just want to make -- get a sense for here whether we're going to get a squeeze as raw material prices rise. Or can you ultimately pass on those costs and roll contracts?

Scott Rook

Yes. So I think we do.

So we have seen the prices for aluminum increase, and so we factored that in. So we are seeing inflation -- we're seeing inflation in our raw material prices, but we are very focused again on productivity across the water business and our other businesses, along with pricing.

And I think we'll -- I think those two will offset each other.

Rohit Bhardwaj

And Steve, what's interesting is that, as Scott mentioned, the key raw material for water are alumina or aluminum and sulphuric acids. So while -- even if there is a short-term squeeze -- we don't think there will be, but if there is, that's really good for our business because the alumina will drive up caustic soda, and obviously, sulphuric acid will benefit from higher pricing.

So there's a bit of -- within the business, a bit up ahead. But so I don't know if that helps.

Steve Hansen

And just one last one, if I may. It's just on -- two of the items you mentioned in your outlook commentary suggested that you're still evaluating or watching.

So that would be the pulp price increase and the demand at the E&P side or the fracking activity levels. How far out do you think we are from seeing in those two respective industries impacts on the positive side from your business?

In other words, how much more activity do we need to see on the rig count before we start to see you guys broadening rate tire at North Van? And how long do we need to see the pulp price increases last before you get higher chlorate demand?

Both of those strike me as is already well in effect, but don't seem to be reflected in your commentary just yet.

Scott Rook

Great. So listen, I'm going to start with oil.

And so it's really been, within the past recent terms, that we saw oil prices move up to $60. And then -- and actually, just early this week, there are some reports to that oil might be above $70.

We have not seen $70 oil. I think, since 2018 or so.

So let's talk about rig counts. So let's -- if we start with Canada, the Canada rig count has already moved up some.

And we are -- so we are beginning to see more HCL because of that. So rig counts averaged, last year in Canada, I believe, high 80s, around 88.

But already this year, we're up above 170. And I think the peak, if I'm not mistaken for Canada, is about 200.

So we are beginning to see that. U.S., it's quite a bit lower, and they're coming back slower.

So peak in the U.S. has been above 1,000, but rigs right now are around 400.

So there's quite a bit of room on the rig count to go up in the U.S. But that's going to take some time because I think the industry was moved very -- moved quickly closing the rigs.

Banks have been reluctant to loan money. So there needs to be confidence and then we will see that.

But if oil is going to be $60 to $70, then we'll go back to see that. And so it's very possible we could see, I think, higher HCL demand really in second quarter, in the second half of the year, depending on what happens with the rig count.

Turning to chlorate and the pulp demand. So the increased prices are for market pulp -- or what we call, market pulp.

So that's pulp that gets sold to companies that are making paper. And there's a big increase in demand coming from China.

So we're still waiting to see if that -- the increase in demand and prices on market pulp is going to translate into bleached pulp. And that's what we're hopeful it will, and we're watching that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Nelson Ng

Just a quick follow-up on the hydra energy arrangement. In Prince storage, what are you guys currently doing with your hydrogen?

Are you like using it as heats? Are you venting it?

Or are you selling it to someone else?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Yes. No, right now, we're not able to monetize it.

I mean, we've -- many years ago, we were able to get some value for it. But right now, it's just -- it's really not getting us any value.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it.

So you're essentially going to get something for this, whereas currently, you're -- are you even using the hydrogen? Like do you currently have a use for it?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Not -- for a small amount of it. But you can count -- you can basically think that it's just not being captured.

And as Scott said, initially, the return is not going to be that much. But we're not putting any capital.

And once the partners have recovered their capital costs in five years' time, it does become quite meaningful for that site.

Nelson Ng

I see. So are you getting any project economics?

Or is it really just selling hydrogen at some price?

Rohit Bhardwaj

No, no. We do share in the -- so if you look at it, so you start from the top, how much does a kilogram of hydrogen go for?

And then clearly, different people get different shares of their pie based on their investments. So in the early years, we don't get much.

But I would say once we get past the five years, we are actually getting a decent amount of share of that hydrogen value.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it.

And then just moving on to the ultra-pure. Can you just remind us what your current production capacity is and what your market share is?

I believe you're one of the larger players. So I'm just wondering how your market share has changed with the Asian imports.

Scott Rook

Yes. So our capacity for ultra-pure is about 50,000 tonnes.

And we -- so we are -- we still are the largest domestic producer, and our market share has been over 50%. I'll just say that with this, we still remain the largest producer and our share is still going to be in the 50% -- close to 50% range.

Nelson Ng

Okay. And are you able to provide a bit of color in terms of how large this particular customer was that switched?

Like are they 10% or 20% of your volume? Or it's something bigger than that?

Scott Rook

Well, look, I'll say that this was our largest customer for ultra pure. But this segment, again, was about 25% of our overall acid business.

Nelson Ng

Okay. Got it.

And then just to follow-up on the cold weather. You mentioned that the impact was limited.

Like I know there's a lot of like power generators in Texas who got hit really hard, and there were a bunch of industries who had to, I guess, curtail or reduce their production. In terms of the cold weather impact and you having a few assets in Texas, did you have to curtail production or do anything like that?

Scott Rook

Yes. We certainly did.

Look, we have a number of sites, around a dozen sites that were impacted by the cold weather. And the impact ranged from, I'll say, struggling out suppliers, so not able to get raw material supplies because our suppliers have bad weather.

We also had trouble moving trucks -- we and everyone else had trouble moving trucks along the roads that were shut down because of that. We had issues with power coming in, issues with gas, frozen pipes.

We also had, I'll say, many customers -- many of our customers were also shut down. But we were -- we went through -- I think our teams worked through as good as we could have gone in preparation for the cold weather.

So we have processes that you go through to prepare for cold weather. So we did that.

And I think because of those efforts, we were able to come back pretty quickly. And so yes, that's it.

Nelson Ng

Okay. So there was some impact, but it's not that material in terms of -- from a big picture perspective?

Scott Rook

Yes. First, on a big picture perspective, I don't think it will be that meaningful for us.

Look, it's -- yes, I think there has been an impact, but it's not going to be that material.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Newman from Desjardins. Your line is open.

David Newman

Just had a few quick ones. First of all, just on the weather theme, not to kill it, but could you see this as being maybe even a bit of a catalyst between -- for a hydrochloric acid, not only from a pricing perspective, but also shipping down there?

And secondly, we're seeing some reemergence of higher contracts for caustic. Do you think there could be a net positive coming out of this?

Scott Rook

It's certainly possible. There were a number of refineries in the Gulf Coast regions that were shut down.

There was also a number of chlor-alkali facilities that were shut down, including force majeurs. And so -- so we'll see what happens with the market.

That definitely tightens the market up. And I think that probably had some impact.

I won't make too many comments about, well, what's driving oil prices up, but that's probably had some impact on it as well as the force majeurs and the tight supply on caustic. You're right.

So we are seeing some signs that caustic prices are moving up. It's still very early.

It's a large global market, and we'll see. But it's certainly leaving it in the right direction for us.

David Newman

Okay. And then on hydrochloric acid, again, where do you think you might -- you're at 30% today in terms of conversion of chlorine in hydrochloric acid, where do you think it might be?

And if you don't want to hypothesize where you might be, if you went up from 30% to 35%, so a 5% increase in the conversion rate, how meaningful is that to EBITDA? Obviously, chlorine being a lower-margin product versus hydrochloric acid.

How meaningful could a 5% move on utilization via EBITDA?

Rohit Bhardwaj

So David, if you look back in 2018 or '19, we were converting over 40% of our chlorine molecule into HCL. So there are two aspects to that, to your question.

So it's not a straightforward answer like a lot of things in our business. So the two aspects are, one, that if we are able to get more HCL demand, we probably will run our chlor-alkali facility harder.

So it won't just be a question of getting rid of chlorine and converting more into HCL. So more HCL demand collected and more chlor-alkali, which means that we'll make more money on the caustic soda.

And then typically, the HCL price moves a lot. If you look at our commentary, we said how much lower our HCL price has been even 20% from last year.

Look, at 2019, that was, I think, another 20% less for lower than the previous year. So all in all, that upswing in HCL is meaningful and a move from 30% to 35% is quite meaningful to that business.

And yes, it's a big factor.

David Newman

Okay. And then caustic soda, just not only what's going on down South.

But obviously, you're in the Lunar New Year as well and laid up capacity there. And we're kind of seeing some green shoots in caustic soda.

And I think, Rohit, you noted in the past that the spread between the Taiwan spot and the contract rate was at a widest gulf it has ever been. I mean -- so do you think there's a -- when do you think the catalyst is to really get caustic sort of going?

You kind of meet your guidance for the year that the second half might see a nice surge. Is it really comes down to COVID?

Or what are the machinations of it, I guess?

Scott Rook

Yes. So I'll take that one.

So I think as we look at cost of one of the -- from a demand standpoint, what's the biggest driver, I think, for that is starting out with increased industrial activity. And that ties to increased aluminum production.

So aluminum production, and therefore, alumina not is forecast to be up 6%. But the other thing that's changing in this market is the type of process used to make alumina is also changing.

And so there's going to be more production in the process that needs more caustic. And so that's going to add what we think is another 2%.

So an 8% demand in alumina, I think, will be good for the market. We're starting to see that.

And then that will be -- as long as automotive manufacturing is there and general industrial activity, that should translate into a pickup in caustic -- well, into alumina, which would be good for caustic.

David Newman

Is there a magnifier effect on the actual supply of caustic, if you see sort of -- or it's just straight up 8% is kind of the impact on caustic?

Scott Rook

Say that again?

David Newman

So in other words, if you see -- if your customers are seeing a pickup, is the customers seeing a pick up by 8%? Or the caustic demand is seeing a pickup of 10% to 8%?

Scott Rook

Yes. That's a global pickup in demand for caustic soda or a year-over-year change in demand for caustic soda that goes into alumina globally.

David Newman

Okay. Very good.

And I guess on the spread, are we seeing any movements here at all on the back of the Lunar New Year?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Between the spot and the contract, you mean?

David Newman

Yes, between Taiwan and the contractor rate. Are you seeing anything at all that leads you to believe that -- gives you guys a bit more confidence that maybe the worst is behind us.

We hit the trough in kind of a last fall, and now starting to move in the right direction.

Scott Rook

Yes. Look, so we did see prices on our -- we saw Northeast Asia spot coming closer to the Taiwan contract price, really even in December and January.

And so we actually had at a while where Northeast Asia had crept up to the $230. And so that was very positive movement.

It then fell down to $210 million, and it's been there for a few weeks. And we'll see what happens right now because with the impact of the storm and everything else, it's early.

But there are, from what I read, there are -- deals aren't concluded right now, but there are at least quotes that are out there that are that are high, I'll say, that are about $240. Those things aren't confirmed, but they're being discussed.

So we'll see what happens there.

Rohit Bhardwaj

But David, from a historical perspective, that spread is still very wide. And so there is still room.

As things stabilize in Asia, that does start to tighten because spot still, from a historical perspective, is still very wide.

David Newman

Do you view that conversion as being the single biggest catalyst?

Rohit Bhardwaj

It's a combination because, obviously, they're kind of interrelated because when you've got -- when there's such a depressed caustic market on the spot side, it's hard to see that converts too much. But as things stabilize, as we get the 8% higher demand, and caustic demand has to go up, then that spot contract differentials should start to come down.

David Newman

Okay. And that's great answer.

Just the last one, just a housekeeping one. I know the Monte Carlo simulation on the LTIPs and things like that, Rohit.

But any rule of thumb that we should be looking at that if your share price goes up $1, we can expect an incremental cost in the range of x to y?

Rohit Bhardwaj

No. Because there's also -- we also -- one of our metrics is also relative return, so that's benchmarked against the dividend index.

And so it gets -- it does get complex, of course. But I mean, the rule of thumb is if you see the stock going up from the start of the quarter to the end of the quarter, you know that it's going to be a higher expense.

But it's hard to give you that easy metric because there isn't -- we don't have that.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Kwai from National Bank. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

I'm just calling in for . A few from me.

So you mentioned the lost customer for ultra-pure. And I'm just wondering, for the excess ultra-pure now that you're going to have, are there any additional costs associated with selling it to that other customer or any other customers?

Scott Rook

No, there are no additional costs. And one thing that I did not mention is that for the ultra-pure that we're not producing, we do we have the ability to turn that into other products and sell it such as merchant acid.

We don't get nearly, doing that, the same value, but we do produce it.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. Perfect.

Great. And for the hydrogen partnership, I know you guys touched upon that a little bit.

Will there be also any additional costs throughout that partnership?

Scott Rook

No additional costs for us.

Unidentified Analyst

Great. And just turning to the WSSC segment.

So I know it's performed pretty well throughout pandemic, and I know that Q4 is typically seasonally weaker. But just in the past couple of quarters, you mentioned the lower volumes in the segment.

So I'm just wondering like what's driving the lower volumes?

Rohit Bhardwaj

It tends to be -- those tend to be seasonal or weather-related. So it depends on -- so then there's no demand reduction in general.

These tend to be just -- just the way it's based on the model, how cold it is or rains. And so there's a bit of a seasonal or weather-related factor in here.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. Great.

That's good. And so again, turning to weather.

I know you guys have kind of touched upon this a few times now. But so I know you said there's no material impact.

But just on the operational side, were those sites that were impacted that you mentioned, do those impact a particular segment more than others? Or is it kind of just general?

Scott Rook

They were spread across -- they were spread across WSSC segment as well as our asset sites.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. Great.

And just a couple more here. So the change in environmental liability that you reported, could you just elaborate a little bit more on that?

Rohit Bhardwaj

Yes. So we look at our long-term remediation obligations, and based on either discount rate changes or change in estimates, we adjust those.

But I mean, there's nothing too remarkable about it other than -- and these tend to be really long term. We could go out 40 years, in some cases, to try and estimate what our remediation costs might be.

So we're always looking at that and seeing that we need to adjust. And also there's a discount rate change there, too.

So.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. And just the last one on me.

For the equipment write-downs, are those expected to continue? I know you reported a couple of the last two quarters.

Rohit Bhardwaj

No, we did -- as we have rationalized some capacity, and so we -- because of that we did some write-downs, but we aren't expecting anything in '21.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Steve Hansen

Sorry, guys, just one follow-up. Did you -- I apologize if you mentioned it, but do you describe what the cost to capture hydrogen would actually be?

I think, Scott, you had mentioned you would need to gather it and store it or move it, I think you said, or something of that effect. And I just trying to understand what costs would be needed -- or capital need to be spent to capitalize on the opportunity?

Scott Rook

Well, so it's -- look, that's going -- it's going to vary on actually plant by plant site. So we would have to -- typically, we'd have to capture it, compress it, store it and then think about moving it.

And again, so that's going -- that's really going to depend on exactly what the project is as well as where the plant is. So there's really not -- there's not one answer that I could give you other than it's really going to vary by site and by project.

In this particular case, with hydra energy, hydra put the capital in, so that they invested to capture it and to store it and then put it in their facilities. And we have a long-term agreement in place for that.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to Scott Rook for closing remarks.

Scott Rook

All right. I thank you very much.

Listen, that concludes our remarks. I would just like to say thank you everybody for your time.

Stay safe, everyone, and have a nice day.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.

You may now disconnect.