Operator
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chorus FY '26 Results. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the conference over to Mr.
Mark Aue, CEO. Please go ahead.
Mark Aue
[Foreign Language] Good morning, and welcome to the Chorus results presentation for the 12 months ended 30 June 2026. I'm Mark Aue, Chief Executive; and joining me is Drew Davies, our Chief Operating Officer.
I'll begin today with an overview of our results for the FY '26 year and cover the progress we're making on our strategy. Drew will cover the financials and FY '27 guidance before I close out with our outlook and the role we see Chorus playing as core infrastructure for New Zealand's rapidly evolving AI future.
We characterize FY '26 as strong financial and operational performance, reflecting the resilience of our business model, disciplined execution and focus on driving simplicity and efficiency as we transition to an all-fiber business. Fiber connections increased by 3% at over 1.1 million connections.
Uptake continued to strengthen, reaching 75.9% with fiber revenue growth of 6% during the year. EBITDA increased 3% to $726 million, underpinned by continued revenue growth and disciplined cost management.
We delivered further efficiencies across the business and maintained tight control of discretionary spend, helping offset persistent inflationary pressure, particularly in nontradeable costs. Net profit improved significantly to $37 million.
And strong cash generation reinforced the quality of earnings with operating cash flow up 4% to $740 million. Gross CapEx was $375 million.
And while lower than FY '25, this primarily reflected the timing and phasing of projects rather than any change in our commitment to maintaining and enhancing network quality. Reflecting our confidence in the business and consistent with our previously signaled guidance, the total FY '26 dividend increased 4.3% to $0.60 per share.
We're now firmly in Horizon 2 of our multiphase strategy, a 4-year program through to the end of FY '29 focused on driving growth, simplicity and efficiency. Fiber uptake continued to progress during the year.
Our opportunity still sits with around 400,000 addresses where fiber is available, but not yet connected. We've taken further steps to simplify the business, streamlining our plan suite and introducing new retailer incentives, whilst retaining a strong debt profile and our BBB or equivalent credit rating.
We're encouraged by the positive regulatory change, and we're accelerating copper retirement with fewer than 1,000 copper lines now remaining in fiber areas. In parallel, our copper recycling program is fully operational, and a multiyear property optimization program is underway.
We're also building momentum across a number of infrastructure initiatives with the launch and expansion of new products like Express Connect and Unified Transport and the recent announcement of TimeSync, a precision timing service, all of which are creating future growth opportunities. Finally, while maintaining our disciplined investment approach, we're evaluating several medium-term infrastructure opportunities, including a potential inter-island subsea cable and a trial for the deployment of distributed battery energy storage systems.
While the financial results this year are important, they also reflect something deeper, how we're bringing our purpose to life and embedding it in the way we work. Our core purpose, unleashing potential through connectivity, enabling better futures for Aotearoa resonates widely.
During the year, we clarified the purpose-led areas that matter most for Chorus. That work has shaped 3 interconnected pillars for connectivity: being future fit, resilient and equitable.
Together, these bring focus where Chorus' strengths align with the needs of our wider ecosystem and where we can create the most meaningful shared value. So we're continuing to deliver value beyond financial performance.
One example is our focus on driving digital inclusion with the launch of our Equity Fibre product. Fundamentally, we believe everyone deserves to benefit from the potential that connectivity unlocks.
By combining affordable fiber access alongside community partners, we can help remove barriers to digital participation and create lasting benefits for New Zealanders. Feedback to date has been positive, and we have over 3,000 connections on plan.
With climate, we've reduced Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 43% from our FY '20 baseline. Almost all waste has been diverted from landfill.
And electricity consumption has reduced by 7% compared with prior year despite the growth in data traffic. Our people remain central to our success.
Employee engagement remains strong with a score of 8.4 out of 10, well within top quartile, and we continue to compare favorably with industry on safety performance. Turning now to performance across our 4 strategic lead pillars.
First, in lead, fiber uptake increased to 75.9%. Original UFB1 areas increased to 77.3% and UFB2 areas at 67.5%, with major urban areas like Wellington and Denedan now close to our 80% fiber uptake target.
Encouragingly, as the right-hand chart shows, without the copper withdrawal tailwind of past, we're still maintaining new fiber connection growth. As we noted previously, we have 2 clear fiber growth pools, around 200,000 premises where an ONT is already installed, and we can win the customer back to fiber, and another 200,000 brownfield and infill addresses where fiber has passed the premise, but the ONT still needs to be installed.
Turning to connection trends. With ongoing cost of living pressures, our home fiber starter plan continues to play an important role in keeping customers on fiber, while demand for higher speeds continue to grow.
More than 4 out of 5 customers are now on a 500-megabit plan or faster. Hyperfibre continues to gain momentum as our premium growth platform, offering symmetrical plans from 2 to 8 gigabits with around 54% of total addresses already network ready.
We expect ongoing growth in high-speed services, supported by increasing household data usage and emerging AI-driven requirements. Our medium-term ambition is to reach 80% address availability with 70,000 Hyperfibre connections by 2030.
In parallel, we continue to be buoyed by research highlighting the relative differences in broadband technology with first choice preference for fiber at 66% compared to 12% for fixed wireless. Data consumption continues to grow strongly, reinforcing the importance of high-capacity fiber infrastructure.
Average monthly fiber usage reached 731 gigabytes per connection in June 2026, up 9% on prior year. Heavy usage is also increasing with 21% of fiber customers now consuming more than 1 terabyte of data per month and 5% of those customers using over 2 terabytes per month.
Total network traffic grew nearly 10% on FY '25. And I often like to put this in context.
That increase alone is the equivalent of over 30,000 years of continuous HD video streaming. Speaking of streaming, our congratulations to TVNZ, successfully running the recent FIFA World Cup tournament predominantly online.
This demonstrated delivery credibility and bodes well for the future with the retirement of legacy broadcast services. And this represents another growth opportunity for fiber uptake that we've highlighted as services increasingly move to IP-based delivery.
During the tournament, we were pleased but unsurprised by the fiber network's performance, peaking at over 180,000 concurrent streams for the final with each game in high resolution accounting for about 5 gigabytes of data. We continue to drive the expansion of fiber.
Whilst new property development was subdued in FY '26, we still passed 22,000 new lots, strengthening relationships with developers and renewing key partnership agreements. Beyond our core fiber network, we're continuing to expand and diversify our infrastructure portfolio.
As I noted, we've launched several new products with Express Connect, Unified Transport and more recently, TimeSync, the precision timing service. With the intent of expanding further through FY '27, all are designed to simplify our offering and speed to market for customers.
In mobile infrastructure, demand for fiber backhaul remains strong as operators continue investing in network densification, and we see steady demand for rack space in our regional edge centers, where access diversity is becoming more prevalent. Together, these initiatives broaden our addressable market, increase utilization of existing network assets and support sustainable long-term growth beyond traditional fiber connections.
To our adapt pillar, we've continued to evolve our operating model and capabilities. In Q4, Matt Bolton was appointed as Executive GM for Infrastructure, further strengthening our leadership team.
In regulation, we've made a material step forward. The final report from the telco sector review highlighted opportunities to simplify legacy regulatory settings with the prior shareholder caps to be removed.
This is an outcome we've been advocating for over some time and removes an unnecessary layer of complexity. There are still formal steps to work through, including seeking shareholder approval at our Annual Shareholder Meeting later this year.
We're also seeing progress in copper services when we continue to work with government and industry stakeholders to establish a clear and efficient pathway for retiring copper services in areas where fiber is not available. This obviously has a benefit to us but equally provides certainty to the market and to customers.
And finally, to our pioneer pillar. Copper to fiber transition is now largely complete across New Zealand's fiber footprint with fewer than 1,000 copper connections remaining to migrate.
A total of 48,000 copper lines disconnected in the year, leaving roughly 44,000 services, nearly all in areas where fiber is not available. Given the rate of decline, we announced earlier this year that we would bring forward the estimated date of the copper network retirement to the end of 2028.
The right-hand chart continues to show the efficiency gains from retirement with a $7 million reduction in reactive fault spend this year. And progress continues on a number of other initiatives.
To highlight 2, copper recycling has transitioned from a successful trial to a scaled operational program, contributing $4 million in EBITDA for the year. With metals pricing at historic highs, our estimates for cumulative returns are now in the $50 million to $70 million range from where we started the program out to 2030.
We're also progressing our property optimization program. As the copper network is retired, the focus is not only on value realization, but also on reducing future operating costs and avoiding unnecessary capital expenditure.
I'll now hand over to Drew to take us through the financials.
Andrew Davies
Thank you, Mark, and [indiscernible], everyone. Overall, we delivered a strong set of financial results.
Looking firstly at our income statement, which aligns to IFRS 18 standard presentation, EBITDA was $726 million, in line with the upper end of guidance and ahead of FY '25 by $21 million. For operating expenses, which declined by $6 million from the prior year, we made cost savings from the changed operating model, incurred lower consulting costs and reduced copper costs.
That helped us absorb inflation in a number of cost lines. Accelerated depreciation in our copper assets in Chorus UFB areas occurred in the prior period, resulting in lower depreciation and amortization in FY '26 of $439 million.
Net finance expense was $5 million higher year-on-year. While our weighted average interest rate on debt reduced to 4.95%, we repaid the majority of our EUR 300 million notes early with $9 million of settlement costs.
Income tax expense was up $15 million from FY '25, primarily driven by higher profits. The FY '26 effective tax rate was 46% versus 81% in FY '25 and higher than the statutory rate of 28%, mainly due to permanent differences arising from the tax treatment of the grants received from the Crown project-related funding.
As a result, we recorded $37 million of net profit after tax for the year compared to $4 million in FY '25. Looking in more detail at our revenue categories, total fiber broadband revenues were up 6% or $47 million from FY '25, driven by fiber connections up 32,000 lines, along with an approximate 2% increase in ARPU to end at $59.51 for the year.
With total copper connections down 48,000 or 52%, this resulted in combined copper broadband, voice and data revenues being down $34 million or 45% lower annually as we continue to execute our multiyear copper exit strategy. Field service revenues were up slightly with higher brownfields projects and roadworks and was partly offset by lower NPD revenue, given the lower volume of development activity across New Zealand in FY '26.
Other revenues were stable annually and included approximately a $4 million net gain from copper cable recycling sales as activity started to ramp up in the second half. In the prior year, $3 million was from that trial undertaken.
Total operating expenses were $303 million for the year and were $6 million or 2% lower than the prior period. We continue to drive strong cost management disciplines to offset the persistent inflationary pressures, mainly from nontradeables, such as rent, rates and electricity lines costs.
Labor costs were $81 million, down approximately 5% annually as a result of our new operating model. The lower capitalization rate of 42% was mainly from fewer fiber footprint expansion projects.
Network maintenance costs were $11 million lower year-on-year. The key driver was lower copper fault volumes to premises as copper connections continue to decline, resulting in a 23% reduction in truck rolls.
As we noted at the half year, second half network maintenance costs did not decline as much as prior periods as contractual CPI increases occurred, along with a seasonal increase in weather-related faults, which impact network-related fault volumes, especially in more rural areas. Other network costs were up $9 million higher than FY '25.
This is mainly due to the higher engineering activity as a result of weather events and higher payments to service companies and better service levels. We also saw timing differences on project spend annually, including the one-off copper cabinet shutdown costs we incurred to power down each cabinet.
While our electricity consumption declined annually by approximately 7%, electricity expense was up $2 million due to higher lines charges. Consultants expense was $4 million lower with spend relating to specific investments to explore potential new revenue opportunities.
Meanwhile, we focus on lowering discretionary spend, which helps reduce other expenses by $5 million. Moving now to CapEx.
Gross CapEx for the year was $375 million, down $35 million from the prior year and in line with the bottom end of the guidance range. Within gross CapEx, $205 million was sustaining CapEx and $170 million was for growth.
Gross CapEx was supported by $41 million of customer contributions for roadworks, new property development and rural broadband upgrades. As signaled previously and as noted in the chart, the half year phasing shows total second half CapEx was in line with the prior year second half.
This included phasing of large national fiber build projects underway, major network property refurbishment projects and large IT project deliveries. This slide shows CapEx using regulated categories for the fiber regulated asset base, RAB, with the tables noting FY '26 allocations, which are subject to audit at the end of the calendar year.
CapEx attributable to investing in the RAB, which excludes capital contributions, is estimated to be about $297 million for the year. For the non-RAB CapEx, copper CapEx was $6 million, down annually and was mainly third-party funded.
As reported in our information disclosure update in May, total RAB increased by $101 million over the '25 calendar year to $6 billion, with core RAB increasing to $5.1 billion, up $221 million, partly offset by the financial loss asset declining by $130 million to $862 million as the FLA depreciates further. Our net debt as of June 30 was $3.2 billion, up $72 million from the prior year, primarily as a result of issuing $400 million in new notes in November.
Proceeds were used to repay $243 million of the EMTN300 notes due in December '26, along with paying down entirely the revolving credit facility. Moody's rates Chorus as Baa2 stable with a threshold of 5.25x debt to EBITDA, which we are currently at approximately 4.75x.
S&P rating is BBB positive outlook with a threshold of 9% funds from operations to debt ratio, which we are currently well above at 17.2%. The table on the slide provides our bank covenant calculation under the revolving credit facility, and we are currently at 4.37x.
Moody's rating trigger of 5.25x debt-to-EBITDA is the focus of our capital management policy. The Board considers that a credit rating of at least BBB or equivalent credit rating is appropriate for a company such as Chorus.
It intends to maintain capital management and financial policies consistent with these credit ratings. Lastly, about 65% of our interest rate exposure is fixed for the next 3 years.
On August 7, the New Zealand government announced that it agreed to the sale of the securities NIFF held in Chorus to a select group of domestic and international institutional investors with settlement occurring by the end of August 2026. For reference, the key terms of the securities are set out on the left-hand side of the slide, and the face value of the combined securities is $1.16 billion.
Chorus' obligations remain the same as presale, but those obligations will now be owed to a number of parties and not just NIFF. From a ratings agency perspective, we expect S&P may treat the $683 million equity securities as debt rather than equity, which will increase our calculated leverage for S&P towards 5.5x debt to EBITDA.
Meanwhile, we believe Moody's will maintain the status quo with their equity attribution of 50% to debt and 50% to equity. This year, we adopted the fair value approach for our network assets.
We completed our first independent valuation of these assets. This resulted in a $983 million uplift in asset values and a $708 million increase in equity through the asset revaluation reserve net of deferred tax.
Turning now to the year ahead. FY '27 will be a transition year for the copper business.
We expect copper connections revenue in this year to be in the high-teens of millions of dollars, reflecting the ongoing decline of copper customers in non-UFB areas. At the same time, net copper recycling gains are expected to be in the low-teens of millions of dollars, supported by the continuing retirement of legacy infrastructure.
We are also seeing a continued reduction in copper maintenance costs as the network footprint shrinks. There will be a further step down in copper depreciation in FY '27, as illustrated in this chart, and we expect copper assets to be fully depreciated by 2028.
Finally, we're progressing plans to exit high-cost sites and exchanges that are no longer required in a fiber-first environment with a further update anticipated at the half year '27 result in February. Overall, the copper business is becoming smaller, simpler and less capital intensive, while the benefits of lower depreciation and reduced operating costs support the transition to a fully fiber-focused network over the next few years.
Finally, on dividend and guidance for the year ahead. The Board has approved a final dividend of $0.36 per share unimputed to be paid in October.
This brings the total dividend for the fiscal year '26 to $0.60 per share. Noting our adoption of IFRS 18 means that our net cash flows from operating activities now exclude net interest.
In the table, we show how we arrive at our free cash flows for capital allocation. For the fiscal year '27 year ahead, our EBITDA guidance range is $730 million to $760 million.
For total CapEx, guidance is $375 million to $415 million and sustaining CapEx is between $195 million to $215 million, remaining the same for both as in the prior year. For dividends, we are guiding to a minimum of $0.62 per share, partially imputed.
At $0.62 per share, this would be an increase of 3.3% over fiscal year '26 and maintains our policy of a growing dividend in real terms. Overall, we continue to track well, and we're pleased with the progress we are making in the early phase of our strategic objectives for Horizon 2 through fiscal year '29.
I'll now hand back to Mark to run through the outlook.
Mark Aue
Thank you, Drew. Looking to our outlook, thematically, we see data centers and AI creating the next major wave of demand for network connectivity.
These long-term demand drivers continue to support fiber growth opportunities. While AI isn't yet a significant contributor to traffic volumes in New Zealand, the direction of travel is clear.
We're seeing growing investment in local data center capacity, increasing use of cloud-based AI applications, and we forecast a material shift in upload-intensive data traffic. Combined with ongoing growth in streaming quality and the number of connected devices, these trends support a sustained increase in bandwidth demand over time.
Importantly, fiber is the only access technology with a proven road map to multi-gigabit plans, defined by low latency and symmetrical speeds, positioning Chorus well for the next generation of digital demand. The scaling of AI requires 4 key infrastructure components: land, power, cooling and fiber.
While the first 3 are often spoken about, fiber is the connecting enabler as a digital highway. The announcements for major data center developments for Makarewa and Stratford are a clear signal that this is no longer a hypothetical scenario.
Large-scale computing infrastructure is being planned and built here, bringing significant new requirements for power, connectivity and network capacity, with estimates forecasting the quadrupling of capacity over the next decade. The Chorus fiber network gives us the ability to move enormous amounts of data at scale with the resilience, speed, latency and capacity to grow as demand grows.
And unlike compute capacity, which can be added relatively quickly, building new fiber routes takes time, capital and access to infrastructure corridors. Thematically, as this evolves, there is a clear opportunity and advantage for Chorus.
A strong fiber footprint, one with over 200,000 kilometers of existing fiber, is a strategic asset that is very difficult to replicate. Our expectations of network speed keep changing, and it's worth remembering just how quickly that occurs.
There was a time when 56 kilobits per second was standard, and we had to accept that down or uploading a file could take hours because that's simply what the technology allowed. Fiber changed the equation.
Now we're moving into the next phase where we see multi-gigabit fiber becoming mainstream. As users, when we have more capacity, we find new things to do with it, higher-quality video, cloud applications, connected devices, massive file transfers and now AI.
What seemed like more capacity yesterday becomes the baseline for tomorrow. As the table shows, a 1 gigabyte file that could take over 40 hours to upload over a dial-up connection can now happen in around 4 seconds over a 2 gigabit fiber connection.
Even with alternate technologies today, that might take 2.5 minutes or more on a fixed wireless or LEO sat link. On fiber, that's not just a faster connection.
It truly changes what is practical and repeatable. Again, noting where Chorus has an advantage through coverage and availability of high-capacity fiber, not just giving people more speed, but creating the headroom for the next generation of applications, businesses and experiences that we haven't even imagined yet.
The key point is that New Zealand's fiber network is already built for the AI era with the scale and performance required to support next-generation digital services without significant network redesign. As we look ahead, we see multiple pathways to growth and becoming an all-fiber business.
In lead, underpenetrated segment growth in win-backs, brownfields and infill remain live shorter-term opportunities, and we expect to benefit from the structural demand growth driven by AI. In expand, we're building a pipeline of adjacent growth opportunities.
We enter FY '27 with a strong order book among previous product launches. TimeSync has also moved into build phase.
And we're advancing opportunities, including the battery energy storage and the feasibility of the inter-island subsea cable. In adapt, we see favorable pathways emerging on regulation.
We'll seek shareholder approval to remove legacy ownership restrictions, whilst continuing to refine our operating model as our Horizon 2 gathers momentum. And finally, in pioneer, full copper retirement remains on track for completion by 2028, and we're focused on unlocking value from legacy assets.
To close, FY '26 demonstrates the strength of the Chorus business model. We delivered growth in fiber connections, solid earnings and cash flow, increased the value of our asset base, and returned more value to shareholders through a higher dividend.
As we move further into Horizon 2, our focus remains clear: driving fiber uptake, simplifying the business, improving efficiency and pursuing disciplined growth opportunities. We're increasingly an all-fiber business.
With copper retirement firmly in sight, we're unlocking new opportunities to simplify our operation and realize further value from our asset portfolio. We have a clear view of where future growth can come from.
We're building a pipeline of opportunities beyond our core business, but we'll remain disciplined. Any investment must leverage our core capabilities, be strategically aligned and deliver scalable return.
We remain very confident in the long-term outlook for fiber. Data consumption continues to grow.
AI is accelerating demand for high-capacity, low-latency connectivity, and fiber remains the technology best placed to meet those needs. The future itself is increasingly digital, AI-enabled and dependent on fiber.
And Chorus is uniquely positioned to power that digital future. Thank you.
Let's go to the phone line operator, please, for any questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from Ben Crozier from Forsyth Barr.
Ben Crozier
Just keen to just touch on the rationale for the price increases this year being slightly smaller than the last couple of price increases. But you're still sort of under earning the maximum regulatory revenue in my estimate this year.
Like sort of when do you expect that gap to close? And sort of why was the sort of slightly lower price increases this year?
Mark Aue
Ben, thank you. Yes, look, I mean, we obviously take a number of factors when we're looking at pricing.
It's been a pretty volatile time over the last few years from a macro perspective and headwinds. I think at the half, we were seeing some signs of economic recovery.
And obviously, that flipped back around with more of the geopolitical sensitivity and the Middle East conflict. So we're always mindful of a number of things that are happening in market.
We use CPI as a reference, both historic and forward-looking. And so, we take a view across the plan.
So I think on a weighted average basis, we're at 3.8%. At the top end, we've actually held our multi-gigabit [ plans or ] prices flat.
So it's about a 0% increase, and that's indicative of us wanting to move customers in the market actually into a symmetrical multi-gigabit plans as well. Look, you're right, I mean, from a [ MA ] perspective, it's something that we look at over the course of the regulatory period.
And an actual fact for this regulatory period for RP2, we were asking the commission to actually smooth some of that headroom based on the washups, et cetera. I think, again, go back to the broader economy perspective, I think 3.8%, we would see, on a weighted basis, as reasonable at the moment.
I think it also is reflective of the ongoing cost of living pressures that we're all going through.
Ben Crozier
That's clear. And maybe just touch on the sort of the size of these investment opportunities around that subsea cable and the battery energy storage systems, like not just sort of in FY '27, but if the trials and the feasibility studies are successful, sort of what's the sort of CapEx required and the revenue opportunities from them?
Mark Aue
Yes. Look, I mean, I think we've been talking about this for a while now when we reset the strategy and the opportunity to move what we see as our infrastructure value stream from more of a passive model to being more active.
And given the asset base that we have, I think, Chorus should absolutely be part of those growth opportunities. I referred to several of the products we've launched this year.
I think they're indicative. They're smaller in scale at the moment, but they'll build momentum.
With Express Connect, we're in 8 data centers now. We'll look to expand that over the coming year.
Unified Transport has been received really well as a product and providing faster and simpler access as well to high-capacity fiber. TimeSync, not that you'd ever want anything to happen in new market and new technology, but some of the timing issues that -- related issues that we had in Australia recently with Telstra, I think, indicative of an opportunity around precision timing and looking at atomic clock use.
So the feedback on that has been really positive to date as well. And those are ones that we've launched in market.
They'll take time to scale, obviously. The 2 that we're exploring that -- so there's excitement about on BESS for battery energy, we've had a number of conversations with partners, and there's a lot of excitement around that.
Chorus is one of the largest property owners in the country, and that gives us line of sight to opportunities to diversify and look at how we might use our properties in a different way. So we've got 5 sites that we're looking at a trial.
These will be low sort of 3 to 5 megawatt BESS installations. But again, quite excited about that potential opportunity and when you look at other markets overseas.
And then, the other is obviously the subsea cable with an interisland cable. And that's in feasibility now.
We've contracted a technical partner to undertake the feasibility, and that will happen over the next 3 years or so. But again, see that as a natural fit to the core.
It's essentially linking the 2 islands with terrestrial fiber, and we just think about that as [ wet fiber ]. But coming to your question, and I go through it in detail because there is a lot there.
From a CapEx perspective, the big one with the subsea cable, that's in a ballpark at the moment of $60 million to $80 million that we would see over the 3 years. The previous product launches would be a lot smaller, and BESS would be dependent on whether there's that successful trial and could you take that a lot further.
I mean, we're only -- we are trialing this, but we can see a future where you could scale this significantly. And obviously, we have several hundred properties that we could potentially do that through.
Ben Crozier
That's good color. And maybe last just short one, like Home Starter connections, sort of the entry-level fiber product has been growing super strong over the last couple of years.
Do you expect, again, pretty strong growth in FY '27 and beyond? Or do you expect that to sort of stabilize from here going forward?
Mark Aue
Yes. Look, I think some of that, again, is relative to the economy and some of the broader macro headwinds.
Again, we feel very validated of putting that entry-level fiber product in market. It was originally a 50 meg, and we boosted it to 100.
I think that's been -- the appeal of that continues to grow. Just looking at numbers again this morning and the premises that have been off-net for over a year are continuing to reconnect.
So there's a 30% annual growth in those premises reconnecting. So the plan is appealing, and it's appealing to premises that you would say weren't coming back to fiber previously, whether that was because of fixed wireless availability or other alternatives or whether the 50 meg plan for fiber wasn't hitting the mark.
And that's certainly our sense. From the growth in Home Fiber Starter, it's still 2/3 new connects, 1/3 downgrades.
Again, I think that's partly reflective of the economy, and we'd rather provide that optionality. But it has stabilized.
We're not seeing any particular movement. And obviously, we would hope with -- going forward, as the economy stabilizes and returns to growth again, that actually our push is to move people up the speed stack.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Entcho Raykovski from E&P.
Entcho Raykovski
So maybe I'll start with a question on connections. I'm just conscious that your connections growth just slowed a little in Q4 after a stronger Q3.
And I'm just curious if you can just talk about some of the factors impacting that slowdown. I don't know if it was mainly price increases by the RSPs and perhaps some seasonal factors which drove this.
And then, as part of the answer to that question, can you talk to how that impacts your connections outlook into FY '27? Do you assume the Q4 run rate continues?
Or do you think there's a level of pickup?
Andrew Davies
Thanks, Entcho. As you said, there is seasonality in our quarterly connections run rate.
And I'd say what we've seen in the last year will be kind of consistent for the year ahead. We see -- we work with all of our retail service partners.
So it's based on the programs of work they have underway. We had a good July.
So we're pleased with the start to the year. But we would see that as we typically see in Q2, you have the college students turning off, and so you always see reductions there, but also then the Q3 is always stronger.
So that kind of connections trend is what we continue to see going ahead.
Entcho Raykovski
Okay. And then, my next question is around the dividend.
I wonder if you considered increasing the dividend [indiscernible] remain lower than the Moody's threshold?
Andrew Davies
You just cut out there, Entcho. Can you repeat the question?
Entcho Raykovski
Yes, can you hear me okay now?
Andrew Davies
Yes, I can hear you. Go ahead.
Entcho Raykovski
Okay. Sorry.
I wondered whether you considered increasing the dividend further, given that you're lower than the Moody's threshold of 5.25x debt to EBITDA and also the fact that your covenants have been relaxed? And I guess, if you're not considering -- well, you've obviously exposed to a floor of $0.62.
So there seems to be some scope for an increase. But if not increasing it further, is there any scope for other capital management, given the room to the Moody's threshold?
Andrew Davies
Well, let me -- that's okay. I understand your question.
So Moody's has not changed their thresholds. It's still at 5.25x, and we're at 4.75x in terms of what we're managing to.
We don't anticipate them changing anything to the equity attribution with the NIFFCo sale. So we don't think that will change those numbers.
For us, the $0.62 -- just a reminder, our capital management policy is that we have a growing sustainable dividend in real terms. So -- and the reason we set the minimum $0.62 is given the current geopolitical uncertainty and the impact that has on forecasting CPI for the year ahead.
If CPI is higher than the 3.3%, which is the $0.62 or $0.60 growth, if it's higher than the 3.3%, then the Board will review the annual CPI at the end of the fiscal year to determine if an adjustment is needed. I think if -- to us -- I mean, I think we've said this analogy before.
Just because the bank increases your credit card limit doesn't mean we'll spend up to that limit. We look for growth opportunities and appropriate investments.
And that's why we set our dividend for the year ahead and how we use the word minimum.
Entcho Raykovski
Okay. Maybe perhaps I wasn't so clear necessarily, is that 0.5 turn gap to the Moody's threshold.
Is that something that you feel comfortable with? Or do you think that there's scope to narrow that a little bit?
Andrew Davies
No, we're comfortable with that gap.
Entcho Raykovski
Okay. Got it.
And then, finally, I mean, a sort of query, whether that's necessarily so relevant, but the SpaceX IPO has made a topic also. I wanted to ask how you view the threat from satellite, particularly given that Starlink now makes up 27% of rural broadband connections.
Is there anything you think you need to do from a product perspective to ensure you remain ahead of the satellite product? Or do you think that sort of usage and capacity provides you with a level of protection?
Mark Aue
Yes. Entcho, I think you're right.
I mean, when we consider the outlook and evolving trends around AI evolution, data center growth, et cetera, consumer behavior changing, always wanting more capacity and demand continues to grow as the connected devices, so every characteristic you would think in our mind lends itself to the fiber network. Starlink has seen significant growth, as you noted, but it has essentially been in rural.
And in many ways, it's helped us to -- with the copper migration out and copper retirement. So, that doesn't mean to say that there aren't any Starlink connections or LEO connections in urban areas and particularly urban fringe where fiber may not have been as prevalently available.
But we still see a significant differential between the technologies, between fiber and Starlink. And so, look, for us, I think a lot of that --you asked what we would do.
It's not really a product change. It's actually more an awareness piece.
Fiber has been around for a while, and I think there's a risk that maybe there's some complacency around what fiber is and whether it's aging versus the new technology. And the reality is, fiber is fit for a lifetime.
It runs at the speed of light. So whilst you can line all these broadband technologies up against each other, they are significantly different, and even so when you come to the difference between fiber and Starlink.
But we'll remain vigilant, obviously, in urban areas. As I say, there are some places where that makes sense.
But I think a lot of what we've talked to is driving the awareness, again, about fiber being fit for a lifetime.
Entcho Raykovski
And is there -- maybe a follow-on to that. Is there the opportunity for you to work with satellite operators in terms of providing backhaul to some of their ground station infrastructure?
Is that something that you're considering at the moment?
Mark Aue
No, there is, absolutely.
Operator
Your next question comes from Phil Campbell from UBS.
Philip Campbell
Just on the network revaluation, Drew, I was just wondering, is there like an implied [ EV ] to RAB multiple that was derived from that revaluation? Just to make sure I check my numbers.
Andrew Davies
No, sorry, Phil, it was done independently as a DCF model. And in the annual report, you'll see the methodology that was used to do the DCF.
Philip Campbell
Yes. Okay.
Awesome. Great.
Just coming back -- the second question, just coming back on terms of the -- I suppose, the gearing of the business. I suppose the Board is committed to a BBB rating.
But I suppose when you look at the ratios, like with the S&P threshold, I think the down driver is going to be 6x. So you should be reasonably comfortably within that.
And then there is a possibility that Moody's obviously is going through the same evaluation of their methodology. They could see their 5.25x going up a little bit.
So you could end up potentially kind of reasonably within those kind of thresholds. I suppose with S&P, there's even a chance you could get a rating upgrade.
So is the Board mindful of that? And is that driving a dividend policy?
Or are they just pretty much taking a more conservative view at the moment?
Andrew Davies
Well, our dividend policy is set through Horizon 2, right, growing dividend in real terms. As to S&P, obviously, they haven't come out with their final determination of the NIFFCo equity attribution to debt, where I said earlier that we'd be at approximately 5.5x.
So again, if they come out with and they're at 6x, we'd be about 0.5 turn underneath that number. But again, we're waiting for their final determination.
Under Moody's, yes, I haven't seen -- the request for comment period is open for another number of months. So we don't want to speculate in terms of what they may do.
But at this point, we're at 5.25x down driver, and that's what we're focused on.
Philip Campbell
Great. Awesome.
And then I suppose just coming back on the subsea CapEx. How much is -- because obviously, it seems as though within the FY '27 guidance, it does seem as though there's some CapEx for some of these new projects contained with that.
Do we know how much of the CapEx within the guidance range is attributable to the new projects?
Andrew Davies
There is some allocation for a variety of the projects, not just the ones that Mark talked to on subsea and BESS, but the ones we've already previously announced, but it's not a material driver of the '27 CapEx.
Mark Aue
Phil, just an overlay to that as well. I think we see a real opportunity for the -- I talked to the brownfields and infill opportunity, so the 200,000 or so premises that we've passed the premise with fiber today but hasn't had an installation, right?
So our ability to go back now and look at where those infills or look at where premises that weren't installed previously, now that fiber is really well known and the market has changed. So that's another opportunity we see for install CapEx.
Okay.
Philip Campbell
Awesome. And then, just -- the last one is just on the -- at the ASM with the shareholder vote on the shareholder cap, is that a 50% voting threshold?
Or is it a 75% voting threshold?
Mark Aue
75%.
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr.
Aue for any closing remarks.
Mark Aue
Thanks, Darcy, and thank you to everyone who joined today. Thank you for those that have also asked questions.
I appreciate that this is a really busy time of year. So again, we all appreciate you taking that time to join us.
So thanks again, and we look forward to meeting with some of you over the coming days and weeks. Thanks very much.
Take care.
Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating.
You may now disconnect.