Commercial Bank (Q.S.C.)

Commercial Bank (Q.S.C.)

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Q1 FY2026 · Earnings Call TranscriptApril 14, 2026

Mohamed Farhan

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Mohamed Farhan, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm pleased to welcome you all to the Commercial Bank's quarter one 2026 earnings conference call.

On this call, I have with me on my left Stephen Moss, who is the Group Chief Executive Officer of Commercial Bank of Qatar, and on to my far left is Noman Ali, who is the Chief Financial Officer. During the duration of this call, we will put you on mute, and once the presentation is complete, I'll come back to you for your questions and answers.

Now I request everybody to please put yourself on mute, and I will now hand over to Stephen Moss. Over to you.

Stephen Moss

Thank you, Farhan. Good afternoon.

Let me start by providing some comments, and I suspect this will form a lot of the Q&A, but comments on recent events. Clearly, the current heightened geopolitical environment and instability across the GCC has had a direct impact on energy supply and trade.

Against this backdrop, Qatar and its banking system remains robust and resilient. The country entered this period from a position of strength, with strong macroeconomic fundamentals supported by significant external buffers, prudent budgeting, and strong sovereign credit rating fundamentals.

During the last six weeks, our business continuity planning has ensured that we at Commercial Bank have been able to remain very focused on staying close to our clients whilst maintaining strong liquidity and capital strength. Commercial Bank continues to operate from a position of institutional strength, with a very clear strategy as we set out earlier this year for the period from the 1st of January 2026 to the 31st of December 2030, supported by prudent risk management, a resilient balance sheet, and a clear focus on delivering sustainable long-term value for our customers, our people, and our shareholders.

We benefit from the support of a proactive and forward-looking regulator. The Qatar Central Bank has announced a package of prudent, precautionary measures to ensure liquidity and stability across the banking sector, including Qatari riyal repo facilities, a new term loan repo facility of up to three months, and a 100 basis points reduction in reserve requirements.

Clients are also permitted to request a deferral of loan principal and interest repayments for up to three months. In January, I said 2026 would be a year of execution, and I want to give you a clear picture of where we stand.

The progress is real. In one quarter, we've moved from strategy on paper to delivery, with governance, accountability, and early results.

Our strategy execution office is up and running. We have 22 strategic initiatives running in parallel across retail, wholesale, treasury, etc., with underlying detailed actions and milestones which are regularly tracked.

In retail and wealth, we continue to strengthen the business where we already have clear competitive advantages, with the roll out of a new wealth management solution. We've also taken further steps to enhance customer experience and deepen engagement in retail business through the launch of Face Pay and CB Connect.

In wholesale banking, we're making progress with a focus on more capital-efficient, cross-sell driven growth, and we continue to strengthen our client offering through upgrades to our corporate channels, facilitating digital account opening, and growing traction across our digital platforms. We've also made three senior appointments in the quarter: a new Chief Operating Officer, a new Head of Treasury, and a new Head of Human Resources, bringing key capabilities in support of the execution of very important parts of our strategic agenda.

To deliver our strategy, we're focused on achieving five clear outcomes: drawing a line under the legacy book; reshaping the bank towards a more capital-efficient and fee-driven business model; capturing growth in underpenetrated segments, including Qataris, SMEs, and affluent clients; embedding AI across the bank; and delivering sustainable shareholder returns. One of the most important enablers of our strategy and an area where we are making tangible and measurable progress is AI.

Priority use cases have been identified and sequenced across the bank through each of 2026 and 2027. During the first quarter of 2026, the bank introduced multiple initiatives as part of our AI roadmap.

First, our retail customer retention AI program, deploying advanced machine learning models, enabling early client churn detection and real-time streaming of commercial actions and campaigns for mitigation and retention, driving more proactive and effective retention strategies with strong business ownership throughout. Second, our credit card spend and activation predictor.

This is an AI-embedded tool suite identifying slow-to-start retail customers before they become inactive, enabling us to deploy high-incentive offers only where they're needed and establishing early usage patterns, which are amongst the strongest predictors of long-term loyalty. Third, the launch of the bank's own generative AI platform within a secure on-prem environment.

Every employee can now search thousands of internal policies and documents in seconds, ask follow-up questions in plain language, and draft professional content, with a roadmap that will evolve to support AI agents capable of performing automated tasks. Together, these initiatives are a reflection of the progress we're making on our AI journey, executing with discipline, with a clear business ownership, and with a focus on delivering measurable outcomes.

Let me now walk you through our consolidated performance and targets. The bank delivered a resilient performance in the first quarter of 2026.

On provisions, we have adjusted our ECL model so as to be weighted higher towards a downturn scenario to account for the regional conflict, which has contributed to higher provisions. In addition, consistent with what we said earlier this year, the quarter reflects a more balanced approach of spreading the provisioning charge evenly across all four quarters, as opposed to carrying a significantly larger charge into the fourth quarter, as has been the case historically.

We believe we are firmly on track toward a net cost of risk of 90 to 100 basis points in 2026 and a normalized net cost of risk of 70 to 90 basis points from 2028 onwards as we continue to work through our legacy exposures in an orderly and proactive manner and reduce our NPL ratio to below 6%. On our broader financial targets, we remain committed to the guidance we set out earlier this year.

From a profitability standpoint, we're targeting a steady improvement in return on equity, which is now adjusted for the global minimum tax impact. We're working towards positive jaws from 2027 onwards, driven by revenue growth outpacing cost growth, supported by simplification, operating leverage, and cost discipline.

In terms of our dividend, we remain committed to targeting the delivery of a sustainable dividend. On asset quality, our target for our NPL ratio is below 5%, and we are committed to improving our Stage 3 coverage ratio to above 70% by 2030.

Finally, on capital, we will maintain a strong CET1 position and total CAR comfortably above regulatory minimums while creating room for selective growth and a sustainable dividend. To close, the regional conflict has, of course, created uncertainty for the businesses we bank and for markets and for the outlook.

We continue to monitor this very closely and manage our exposures prudently. However, I want to be clear: the execution of the next phase of our strategy continues in earnest.

The initiatives we launched in January are progressing, and we remain very focused on building a more diversified revenue base, reducing our reliance on balance-sheet-driven income, strengthening our fee and transaction banking engine, and maintaining cost discipline. I would also like to emphasize that Qatar's fundamentals remain strong, with the country navigating the current environment from a position of strength.

At Commercial Bank, we are taking progressive actions to ensure that we stay true to our commitments to deliver safe, sustainable profitability and long-term value for all of our shareholders. Thank you.

Mohamed Farhan

Thank you, Stephen. Now I hand over to Noman Ali, who will take us through the quarter one financial results.

Noman Ali

Thank you, Stephen. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining in.

Getting into the results for the three months ended 31st March 2026, I'll focus mainly on slide nine, which shows the consolidated financial highlights of the group, both on a reported basis and also after excluding the long-term incentive scheme impacts. In summary, the group reported a net profit before the impact of Pillar 2 tax of QAR 538.9 million.

The year-on-year movement in profit was supported by resilient operating performance in the first quarter of 2026. Net operating income increased by 7.6% to QAR 1,216.8 million, driven by increase in net interest income and fee income.

This was offset by higher net provisions, increased operating expenses, including IFRS 2 related long-term incentive scheme movements, and a reported loss of QAR 25.7 million from our Turkish subsidiary, taking into account the impact of hyperinflation. The group also accrued for the BEPS Pillar 2 tax a charge of QAR 36.9 million.

As a result, the reported consolidated net profit after Pillar 2 tax for the three months ended 31st March 2026 was QAR 501.4 million. Talking about our businesses, the retail and wealth business started the year strongly, with good and consistent returns, supported by growth in lending.

On the wholesale banking side, our lending book grew in the core segments, with a clear focus on cross-sell opportunities. Our associates continue to perform well as we continue to work closely with them in the execution of their strategies.

If we deep dive into the numbers, our consolidated net interest income increased 12.6% year on year. Firstly, in relation to interest income, the consolidated gross interest income increased by 5.6% when compared to 31st March 2025.

This was driven by growth in loans and advances to customers and investment securities. Our interest expense increased by 1.9% when compared to 31st March 2025, mainly due to increase in customer deposits and syndicated borrowings year on year.

As a result, our net interest margin stood at 2.2%, similar to the 31st March 2025 levels. For rest of 2026, we will work towards maintaining our NIM around 2.2%, with a downward pressure of 10 basis points.

NIM pressure is mainly due to stiff competition for domestic deposits, refinancing of some of our medium-term debt issuances which were previously issued at a lower rate, and repricing lag between loans and deposits. In the next phase of our strategy, we specifically identified the need to optimize our funding mix by increasing CASA deposits and also improve the deposit composition in the overall funding pool.

This will take time. Moving on to non-interest income, our net fee and commission-based income increased as a result of retail banking fees, in particular remittances, and wholesale banking fees, which included a one-off fee.

Further, there was a reduction in net income from investment securities, including mark-to-market movements relating to investment securities at fair value through P&L and reduction in dividend income. In terms of operating expenses, the reported operating costs were higher year on year, primarily due to staff, technology, and automation-related costs, as well as increased inflationary operating costs from our Turkish subsidiary.

Further, the increase in reported operating expenses also included higher staff-related LTIS costs due to volatility. As a result, the group's reported cost-to-income ratio reached 32.3%.

At domestic level, the cost-to-income ratio on a reported basis now is 27.2%. Alternatif Bank's reported cost-to-income ratio was 65.7%.

Going forward, we expect to maintain positive jaws, reflecting revenue growth outpacing cost, not just in one year, but consistently across the cycles starting from 2027. Moving on, the net provisions increased to QAR 319 million, as compared to 149 million in the same period in 2025.

In relation to the provisions on loans to customers, the increase in our provision includes a higher ECL charge due to the regional conflict and also reflects our approach towards a more appropriately balanced provisioning throughout the year. Our ECL model has considered a higher weightage for the downward economic scenario, with higher volatility expected in the forward-looking macroeconomic factors.

The macroeconomic indicators will continue to be reassessed as the situation continues to evolve. As a result, our gross cost of risk was 129 basis points, and another strong quarter of recoveries resulted in a net cost of risk of 90 basis points, in line with our guidance.

Our Stage 3 coverage ratio has improved to 61% at 31st March 2026 from 60.4% as at 31st December 2025 and from 55.2% from 31st March 2025. NPL ratio decreased slightly to 6% at 31st March 2026, compared to 6.1% at 31st December 2025.

There's also reduction in Stage 2 balances, and our Stage 2 coverage ratio increased to 12.4% from 10.4% reported in 2025. Moving on to the balance sheet, the total assets were up by 12.8% year on year to QAR 190.6 billion.

Loans and advances to customers increased to 105.4 billion, which includes an increase in acceptances, which are trade-related items. If we exclude the increase in acceptances, the loan growth is approximately 3.9% year on year.

This is driven by growth in wholesale lending, both in government and public sector as well as corporates. Further, retail lending also continued to show good progress, with growth year on year of 1%.

On the wholesale side, our focus will be to grow lending on higher-return customer segments and high-growth sectors. On the retail side, we will aim to accelerate growth in Qatari segments and maintain our leadership on the expat segment.

Investment securities increased by 17.2% year on year to reach QAR 40.7 billion, with the group investing in high-quality market securities. Customer deposits increased 11.3% year on year to QAR 85 billion at 31st March 2026.

The year-on-year increase is mainly driven by time deposits as well as current and saving deposits. Further, we continue to focus on low-cost deposits, which increased by 3.8% year on year, representing 40.5% of the total customer deposit mix.

Our capital remains strong. CET1 ratio increased to 12.4% at 31st March 2026 from 12.3% at 31st March 2025, and the total CAR increased to 18.4% at 31st March 2026 from 17.1% at 31st March 2025, mainly as a result of a new issuance of an AT1 instrument at the Alternatif Bank level in February 2026 and also as a result of lower AT1 deductions.

Alternatif Bank reported a net loss of QAR 25.7 million after hyperinflation for three months ended 31st March 2026, compared to a net loss of QAR 31.9 million for the same period in 2025. Although there is an improvement in performance at operating profit level, the results were impacted by hyperinflation accounting.

Alternatif Bank at consolidation level represents only 6% of the total overall balance sheet size. That was all from my side, and happy to take questions now.

Mohamed Farhan

Thank you, Noman. We can now move on to question and answers.

If you have any questions, please raise your hand or ask the question in the Q&A box. We have our first question from Aybek.

Please unmute yourself and go ahead.

Aybek Islamov

Yes, thank you everyone for the conference call. I think I would like to ask a few questions here, right?

I guess three questions. First is looking at your balance sheet trends in the first quarter, right, there is a sequential decline in deposits, right?

Can you explain what's happening there, right? I can also see draw down in cash balances on the asset side during the first quarter.

I think that will be interesting to know what is the impact behind this. That's my first question.

The second question is, can you tell us how is April, the month of April, evolving so far, right? Any insights you can share that will be great.

I think thirdly, with regards to your dividend policy, do you anticipate any kind of impact, negative impact from this geopolitical tensions onto your dividend decisions, any call you can make now on

Stephen Moss

Thanks, Aybek.

Aybek Islamov

Thank you.

Stephen Moss

I'll take the second and third, and Noman can cover the first, and I'll add as appropriate. Dividend policy, clearly, we're six weeks into the current situation.

The slide that we put out at the end of January on consolidated targets, other than tax affecting it, given the BEPS, we've now added that to the slide, but other than that change, we're not changing at the present time the outlook. As I said in my opening, we remain committed to achieving all of the targets in 2026 and 2030 now, effectively.

No change in that. Clearly, what we've said in terms of guidance on dividend, remains the same.

What we're seeing in the first two weeks of April is, clearly, we've had then probably about eight or nine working days. Again, the world waits to see what's going to happen, nothing surprising.

Clearly, the obvious sectors are a little stressed, i.e., hospitality, hotels, etc., but nothing different from you're seeing where you are. Nothing really to draw your attention to.

I'd say nothing any different from the whole of March, let's wait and see what happens. Then, clearly, we'll have some clarity, hopefully, as we move forward.

Key messages, the targets as we outlined at the end of January remain unchanged.

Noman Ali

Aybek, your question on the deposit movement, from December, there was a reduction in customer deposits, and that was mainly relating to government and international deposits. That was just as part of the normal cycle, nothing disorderly there.

Then, obviously, we had raised funding earlier than that, Asian syndication of around $900 million, so that also helped as well. That was just a movement in relation to some government and international deposits there.

In relation to the loans to customers, I think the loans were slightly flattish there, but year on year, we have shown a growth. As a part of strategy from a wholesale side, we will continue focusing on our core businesses, core segments, focusing on high-return sectors.

On the retail side as well, we had growth 1% year on year, and we will focus on increasing on the Qatari segment side as well.

Mohamed Farhan

Thank you.

Aybek Islamov

Thank you.

Mohamed Farhan

Sorry, Aybek, go ahead. No,

Aybek Islamov

no, I'm done. Thank you.

Stephen Moss

Thanks, Aybek.

Mohamed Farhan

Thank you. We have three questions from Srikanth.

I'll read them out. What is the expected tax rate for 2026?

Also, do you expect any reversal of tax provision by end of the year?

Noman Ali

The effective tax rate will be around 11 to 12%, because we will continue accruing for the global minimum tax, which is around 15%. However, there is already a sports and social contribution levy of 2.5%, and that is a covered tax, so that will be deducted.

When we do the calculation, there is certain elements from a deduction perspective, the effective rate tax it will be between 11 to 12%.

Stephen Moss

No, we don't expect any write-backs at the present time.

Mohamed Farhan

The second question is, there has been a rise in other provisions this quarter. Can you break down the nature of these and whether they are one-off or likely to persist?

Noman Ali

Yeah. In other provisions, we are building our provisions in relation to property-related impairments.

That is all mainly including in relation to that. We might expect a little bit buildup into that, but that's just part of our normal process and our planning, budgeting process that we are going to build our provisions for property impairment, yeah.

Stephen Moss

We have, as is I think apparent, a sizable repossessed property portfolio, and clearly we will look to divest that at the appropriate time. Similarly, we will probably continue within this provisioning line to have provisions each quarter at about the same level or slightly higher, which will obviously support the ultimate sale at the right time.

Clearly, January and February, things were looking good in terms of an uptick in the property market, etc., but obviously things that have happened since have put that on hold.

Noman Ali

That was, again, to repeat, part of our plan.

Mohamed Farhan

The third question is, how do you see NPL trajectory evolving over the next two, three quarters, especially given the current macroeconomic environment?

Noman Ali

On the NPL trajectory, this is a bit too early to say right now, but we haven't seen any significant credit deterioration at this stage. As part of our focus on our legacy book and how we are addressing that, we will continue addressing that, and our target for the year-end is to be around 6% NPL, we expect to be in line with our guidance at this stage,

Stephen Moss

yeah. With a coverage ratio of 62.

No change at the moment, but obviously as the weeks progress, let's see. Very much no, we're not seeing a reason to change that.

Mohamed Farhan

We have a question from White on the Q&A box, again related to the other provision 100 million charge. We answered that, I'll skip that question.

There's a question from Dharmesh. Can you tell us see whether there has been a impact on the net profitability due to hyperinflation in Turkey?

Could you give us the clarity for Q2 2026 and so on?

Stephen Moss

Let's see.

Mohamed Farhan

Clarity on the hyperinflation.

Stephen Moss

Sure.

Noman Ali

On hyperinflation, obviously because of the current situation, we would expect inflation to continue in Turkey, which will mean that our hyperinflation adjustment for Turkey will not be lower than last year. The hyperinflation impact continues.

Obviously, we'll continue monitoring the situation there.

Stephen Moss

Just to add, we, as we told you before, we had a head office building in Turkey that we sold. That was a natural hedge.

Clearly if anything, the hyperinflation charge in 2026, and added together with the current situation, is likely to lead to a higher hyperinflation readjustment this year. That said, to be fair to the Turkish business, the underlying performance is better year on year if you look at Q1 versus Q1.

There's a netting, but with a higher hyperinflation charge, but actually the underlying business is performing better in absolute terms, and we expect that to continue through the quarters.

Mohamed Farhan

The second question from Dharmesh, Can you give us a roadmap on the strategy, how you're going to achieve the target guidance up to 2030? Sure.

Stephen Moss

In essence, what I said in the 20 I think it was the 26th of January. Nothing has changed from what we said.

We have a strategy for retail, we have a strategy for wholesale, and as I said earlier on the call, we have 22 high-level strategic actions which really drill down into very clear underlying initiatives, which all basically add up to delivering what is a five-year bottom-up plan which underpins the five-year strategy. This isn't sort of top-down.

It was more bottom-up. We mapped it out in December in November, December, and January, and it basically underpinned what we said on the 26th of January.

To assure you, that was a bottom-up exercise to deliver everything I said on the 26th of January. Basically, there's one page, which we can direct you to, which is the strategy on a page.

Then we have the consolidated targets, which are the outcomes of the successful execution of that strategy. Happy to take you through it offline if that's helpful, but I don't propose to go through it again right now.

Mohamed Farhan

Thank you. We have three questions from Sayko in the question-and-answer box.

The first one is reading the current situation. Can you comment on the operational impact of the war on CBQ?

Your guidance for this year is largely unchanged compared to the start of the year. What gives you confidence a conflict will not derail your plans?

Stephen Moss

The operational impact, we have continued to be able to serve our customers. Clearly, at the beginning of March, there were a few days when we weren't in the office and branches weren't open.

Post then, branches opened very quickly, leading to all branches being open from the 24th of March onwards. Operationally, I'd say there's been little impact, little if any impact, to be fair.

We continue to serve our customers, and we really, having been through this several times before in slightly different situations, but similar, this to my mind is a time very much just to really show that we are a relationship bank and stand very close to our customers. This is a time to get close to our customers, and we've endeavored to do that during the last few weeks, all closer, to help them.

What confidence do I have that we're going to continue to deliver the strategy? Because as I say, we've got six weeks of clearly the current situation.

If it's resolved quickly, then clearly I will have a higher level of confidence to deliver the strategy that we unpacked. If it takes longer, then clearly We may have to come back to you and say, look, things are going to have to change.

We'll have to wait and see. It's too early to say.

Mohamed Farhan

The second question is on the Central Bank repo window and the deposit outflows. To what extent do you utilize the Central Bank repo facilities?

What trends do you see on deposit outflows and the overall liquidity?

Noman Ali

On the liquidity side, we continue to maintain strong liquidity buffers and active liquidity management is happening, and obviously we are supported by the QCB measures. Till now, we have not used the repo facility, there has not been any direct support requested by CBQ.

Then, as I mentioned earlier, from a deposit perspective, we had an Asian syndication transaction, $900 million in the last few months, which has helped us to get some duration as well. We are actively managing and monitoring our deposit base and continuing to focus on it.

Mohamed Farhan

The third question is on upcoming EMTN maturities. What are your plans for the May Eurobond senior maturity?

Do you plan to refinance this? Any color on that you can share will be appreciated.

Noman Ali

We will look at the market conditions and then we will decide on it. We have taken certain actions which helped us, some of the repo transactions which we have done with certain duration, but we'll look into the situation, how the market is, then decide on that.

Mohamed Farhan

We have now a question from Andy on the Q&A box. Sorry, what was the figure in provisions relating to the repossessed property book which you expect to trigger each quarter?

Also, what is the expected OpEx growth for 2026, given the global inflation, tech investments?

Noman Ali

If you look at the other provision line, the total amount is around 99 million, that includes the repossessed property book. This is in accordance with plan.

We will have a bit of increase as we go throughout the year, but it's just part of building up the provision in accordance with our plan, as Stephen mentioned, in relation to our repossessed property portfolio.

Stephen Moss

Just I'd say correct this if I'm wrong, but there'll be an increase within that number, but I don't think we're expecting the overall number to increase, yeah? Or only very slightly, if.

Noman Ali

Slight. Correct.

Slight increase. Was there a second?

Mohamed Farhan

The OpEx growth on global inflation.

Noman Ali

Yeah. I think from an OpEx perspective, there will be some upward pressure.

From a budget perspective, we are looking at around 1 to 2% of increase. However, given where we are on revenues, we will be focusing on cost management, discretionary cost.

We will be really focused on maintaining cost discipline during this year,

Stephen Moss

yeah. We have and clearly we don't disclose our budget, but we have and we didn't you'll remember, set ourselves a target of positive jaws for 2026, because we wanted to take various actions to get ourselves in the position which is set out, again, in the strategy update regarding simplification, etc., to get ourselves in the position from next year to deliver positive jaws.

Those are obviously serve as cost actions, and we will take those within the environment for 2026. To give you comfort, we don't suggest that the cost number is going to go up significantly certainly not above the plan, we will accommodate whatever increase that occurs due to global inflation within our existing internal plans.

You shouldn't see any significant uptick there beyond our own internal planning.

Mohamed Farhan

The third question from Andy is on the salary LTIP related adjustment. How much is the amount for the Q1?

I will answer that. That's 10 million for the quarter, and if you see our overall cost movement, it's 42 million.

If you adjust for the LTIP, the actual cost increase quarter on quarter is 32 million. Out of that,

Noman Ali

10 million is coming from Alternatif Bank.

Mohamed Farhan

We have another question from Dharmesh. Allowance for impairment including interest in suspense around 1,007 million in Q1 2026 from 874 million.

Will this remain similar to Q2 2026?

Noman Ali

I think if you look at year on year, our interest in suspense P&L impact came down around 50 million, mainly because we had certain items which moved out of the interest in suspense, we released that, and we had certain additions. We would expect that to be similar.

Mohamed Farhan

We have four questions from Murad Ansari. The first one, can you please share your thoughts on domestic liquidity environment in Qatar and on deposit rates?

Noman Ali

Yeah. As I mentioned, from a liquidity perspective, our liquidity remains strong, and we continue to maintain strong liquidity buffers.

From a Qatari riyal perspective, our liquidity is is is strong, as I mentioned. There will be pressure on, as we mentioned, from a NIM perspective, from a local domestic deposit perspective.

There is competition for that, there will be a bit of upward pressure. As per our NIM guidance, we will continue to maintain maintain that.

Our NIM for the last year for the last few quarters have been around 2.2%, we have been able to defend our position. There remains some downward pressures because of local demand for local deposits, but we'll continue to actively manage that.

As we also highlighted that year on year, our CASA deposits have also increased more than 3%, so that is also part of our strategy to focus on growing that as well.

Stephen Moss

Just to add to that, our liquidity ratios remain strong. Obviously, we benefited prior to the 28th of February or we'd already had our capital AT1 issue well advanced, that actually closed in early March, but we'd already effectively done it.

As Noman said earlier, we raised a $900 million US dollar Asian syndication. We do not see any issues in liquidity.

As I said at the beginning, my opening, our liquidity is strong, and our capital position, clearly, is very strong, as evidenced by 130 basis points uptick quarter on quarter.

Mohamed Farhan

The second question is, have you utilized any of the support measures introduced by QCB?

Stephen Moss

No. We answered that earlier.

Mohamed Farhan

The third one, how much of an impact has the recalibration of ECL models had on the provision cost for Q1?

Noman Ali

We had obviously adjusted the downside scenario from 15% to 25%. If you see our financial statements, you will see the impact in there from a Stage 2 perspective.

I guess it's between 50 to 100 million. The impact is within that thing, but it is part of our financial statements.

Stephen Moss

It's 88 million. Just to stop me wondering which end of the spectrum it is, it's 88 million Qatari riyals.

That's what the effect of the increase in the weight of the downside scenario had on our ECL charge in Q1. Just to echo, the increase overall was due to us not skewing the provisioning all to Q4, we've taken it equally over four quarters, to which hopefully will make your jobs easier as analysts.

Mohamed Farhan

The fourth question is on the interest rate outlook. Has it changed for the year?

Does that have any impact on your NIM outlook?

Noman Ali

From an interest rate perspective, we had three rate cuts in 2025, the last one in December 2025. I guess, from a budgeting perspective, we've had budgeted one rate cut in April and one in September.

However, I think with the current uncertainty, we will see where the interest rate go, but we'll continue monitoring it, because given the

Stephen Moss

Certainly look less likely now.

Noman Ali

Yes. Currently it looks less likely that they will come back,

Stephen Moss

yeah. Just on interest sensitivity?

Noman Ali

On interest sensitivity, a 25 basis point downward shift has around 60 million impact on an NII from a NIM perspective,

Stephen Moss

around

Noman Ali

per annum, and five basis point downward impact on our NIM.

Stephen Moss

Got it.

Mohamed Farhan

I think that's all we have for today in terms of audio and the Q&A box. That comes to the end of our Commercial Bank quarter one earnings conference call.

We thank everyone for joining us in the call, and have a good day.

Stephen Moss

Yeah. If you have any more questions, you know how to contact Farhan, and we will be talking to analysts over the next few days.

If you have any further questions, don't hesitate to reach out. Thank you for your attention.

Noman Ali

Thank you.