Saudi National Bank

Saudi National Bank

TTADAWUL:1180
34.62
SAR
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229.45BMarket Cap
Feb 03Next Earn

Q4 FY2025 · Earnings Call TranscriptFebruary 4, 2026

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening. I will now hand over to your host, Mr.

Iyad Ghulam. Mr.

Iyad, please go ahead.

Iyad Ghulam

Good afternoon. On behalf of SNB Capital, I would like to welcome you to this conference call with SNB management regarding the bank's Q4 2025 results.

Today's call is being recorded. Please note that this call is open for analysts, investors, and shareholders only.

Any media personnel, please disconnect [unclear]. Today's speakers are Mr.

Tareq Al-Sadhan, Group CEO; Mr. Hussein Eid, Group CFO; Mr.

Raja'a Asad Khan, Group Chief Economist; and Mr. Abdulbadie Alyafi, Head of Investor Relations.

I will start by handing over to SNB Capital Head of Investor Relations, Abdulbadie Alyafi go ahead.

Abdulbadie Alyafi

Thank you. Good afternoon from Riyadh.

We would like to thank SNB Capital for hosting today's call. Before we begin, a quick reminder that today's call includes forward-looking statements and discussions of financial performance.

I'll remind everyone please to refer to page two of our earnings presentation for the disclaimer notice. All supporting materials for this call are available on the Investor Relations page of the SNB website.

With that, I'll hand over to our Group CEO, Mr. Tareq Al-Sadhan.

Please go ahead.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you, Abdulbadie, and warm welcome everyone, and thank you for joining our call. 2025 has been a remarkable year for SNB.

We kicked it off with our Capital Markets Day last February and the launch of our new strategy cycle. During that session, we shared our vision for the future, supported by comprehensive roadmap and the KPIs we would use to track our progress.

We set our priorities and ambitions with transparency, and as promised, we continue to share updates along the way. Having these clearly defined strategic priorities has helped us to stay on track, to focus on what matters, and in evolving markets and to win buy-in from our partners and investors who shared our vision.

We continue to prioritize the key elements of our strategy that you all know by this point: expansion of our business while pursuing sustainable value creation and the capture of profitable market share; ensuring that we know our clients' needs and are keeping them in the heart of everything that we do with a clear customer-centric approach; deepening efficiency in every area of our business; investing in innovation and technology; and attracting and fostering the most talented people who makes SNB the Kingdom's leading financial institution and national bank champions. As a result, in year one of our strategy cycle, we have delivered and even exceeded 2025 guidance, notched another year of record financial performance with higher core revenue on expanded NSCI and strong growth on fee and other income, leaner operating costs, a standout deposit and funding franchise to support our balance sheet growth, healthy financing expansion, including 68% growth in total credit in MSME with robust credit quality and strong capitalization.

All of this has came together to deliver expanded ROTE, attractive returns for our shareholders, and record net income. Along the way, we have built structural improvement that are making our business more robust in the face of a competitive and dynamic market.

We aim for these improvement to support us in maintaining this position momentum going forward. For example, we have delivered faster turnaround time: corporate have seen an improvement of 68%, and real estate finance has seen an improvement of 35%, and our lease finance have witnessed a 38% improvement on turnaround time; higher client satisfaction: retail branches Net Promoter Score has improved by 3 points, corporate Net Promoter Score has improved by 5 points; and also, we focus on faster complaint resolution, we have witnessed a significant improvement.

On the people side also, we've seen a significant engagement from our people on participation on the OHI pulse survey, which we are yet waiting to see the result out of that. Our strategic priorities are guiding our pursue for the sustainable growth and supporting us to continue delivering meaningful value expansion for our shareholders.

With that, I'll hand over to my colleague Hussein, then I'll be back with you to talk about the update on our strategy. Hussein.

Hussein Eid

Thank you, Abu Khaled. Good afternoon, everyone.

It is a real pleasure to share such a strong set of results. As usual, you have the full detailed presentation, including 2025 results and 2026 guidance.

Rather than going through all the details page by page, I will focus on the most important highlights. Looking first at the summary here on page seven, you will see that SNB has continued its strong growth and built momentum across all key drivers.

We'll touch on all of these key points as we go through the presentation. Beginning with the balance sheet on page eight, we expanded the balance sheet 10% to a new record level, driven mainly from financing and investments.

SNB remains at the head of the pack, making up over a quarter of the total banking assets. The asset growth has been funded mostly by customer deposits, which also grew 10%.

We also had several successful issuances and other wholesale funding activities during the year, demonstrating our ability to access international capital and liquidity. To highlight this, debt securities and term loans increased 40%.

Moving to financing on the next page, financing expanded 11%, in line with the guidance. We have added 75 billion riyals of net financing, with majority of growth coming from corporate, up 15%; MSME, up 48%; and retail, up 3%, including an 8% increase in mortgages.

Other retail saw strong growth in personal financing and other lines, and overall, it would have been recorded 10% growth instead of the negative 2%, which was offset by the high-net-worth repayments, as we discussed in our previous calls. Wholesale financing overall is up by 21%, with the following growth drivers: we continue to see demand in corporate across all segments, supporting the 30 billion riyals increase.

Also, MSME financing remains a key driver, aligned with our strategy, growing almost 26 billion riyals. This reflects continued progress toward our ambition to be the biggest enabler of MSMEs, leveraging digital onboarding, faster credit decisioning, and improved risk selection.

FI moderated in the fourth quarter due to maturities, reflecting the shorter-term nature of this segment. Next to the investment on page 10, the 9% expansion of the investment book during the year tells a clear story.

Our growth has been focused on quality assets, with attractive yield and delivering a robust track record. The NCB investment portfolio continues to provide strong liquidity and revenue enhancement from investment-related act income.

Please moving to the next page. Customer deposit strength has been another key highlight for SNB, growing 10% in 2025.

Within that, CASA grew 11%, and CASA ratio settled at 70 73%, well within our comfort zone. While funding supply in the system remains healthy, there are few things to keep in mind on deposit cost.

In line what we have been messaging in the previous calls, domestic competition for domestic deposit has been elevated. Across the industry, cost-bearing deposits has seen the most growth, which of course have impact on cost of funding in the system.

Looking ahead, the two expected rate cuts this year should be supportive of cost of funds to an extent. In parallel, we will continue to source funding internationally, reinforcing our positions as one of the lowest-cost and most diversified funding franchise in the market.

It is also worth mentioning that the sequential moderation in deposits is related to business-as-usual transitory deposits behavior in domestic CASA. Moving to the income statement on page 12, our record 25 billion riyals net income was delivered by an uplift from core revenues, careful cost discipline, continued robust credit quality, and strong recoveries.

Together, these elements drove return on tangible equity improvement of around 100 basis points, exceeding guidance. Let's briefly touch on each of these elements, starting with net special commission income and margins on page 13.

Net special commission income grew 5% year-on-year, in line with the guidance, driven by the expansion across the board. Retail special commission income is up 5%, supported by healthy average volumes, which also grew by 5%, even considering the repayment in the second quarter.

Our ongoing pricing initiatives also contributed to the retail special commission income enhancement. Wholesale special commission income also contributed meaningfully as a result of our 21% growth in this segment.

While the investment book expanded 9%, our efficient management of these positions have contributed to a 12% increase in special commission income. The 8% increase in the cost of funds reflects elevated market competition for local deposit, as we saw before.

SNB substantially grew customer deposit, including CASA, and attracted wholesale funding, delivering optimization of funding cost. Looking at the net special commission income margins, NIM moderated 15 basis points year-on-year.

We stabilized it during the year, where we can now see improvement in the current quarter. NIM sensitivity remains largely unchanged and slightly positive, with an estimated 2 to 3 basis point expansion over 2 to 3 quarters following a 25 basis points rate cut.

Despite this positive sensitivity to rate cuts, as we always mentioned, this sensitivity is point in time and assume all else being equal, including the mix and the spreads. We have also seen positive traction in the second half from international, with meaningful uplift in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by improvement in international special commission expense.

Next page. Fees and other income reached 10 billion riyals, up 21% year-on-year, driven by investment income, FX, trade finance, and international operations.

Key highlights for the period are as follow: investment-related income contributed the most to the non-funded income; FX continue to be a bright spot, expanding across all customer segments; the growth in trade finance and cash management fees is evidence of successful execution on our strategy; financing and cards income was actually maintained, even considering that fee structure has been adjusted for the sector; the capital market business continues to be challenged with softer trading environment, and international continues to contribute positively, especially in the second half. Next to opex on page 15.

Operating expense management was a key highlight in 2025. We reduced operating expense by 11% year-on-year and exceeded our guidance on both group and domestic efficiency ratio.

As we announced, there was a one-off benefit from release of prior-year provisions, which were no longer needed as per the accounting standards. In addition to this reversals, please note that a material portion of the decline in the year-on-year opex is also coming from our cost optimization initiatives that are recurring in nature and will continue into the coming years.

Next page. Cost of risk came at 15 basis points, within guidance.

In previous calls, we highlighted the expectation of some cost of risk normalization in the second half. As you may notice in the current quarter, we have provisioned some exposures that resulted in increase in the cost of risk for the quarter.

Following the prior periods of material recoveries leading to low or even negative cost of risk, the full-year level now is aligned with the guidance set in our previous calls. Even with this increase, the cost of risk remain within the modest level, and our core focus on prudent underwriting and credit risk management remains firmly in place.

Next to credit quality on page 17. The notable decline in NPLs reflect the write-off of fully provisioned exposures and recoveries.

In combination, these drove the NPL ratio to a record low of around 70 basis points. It is also worth highlighting that our coverage ratio remain healthy across all stages.

Next page. On capitalization and liquidity.

In 2025, we increased total eligible capital 12%, supported by net income accumulation. Risk-weighted density remain broadly unchanged at around 69%, with a reduction in market risk offsetting the growth in credit risk.

Improvements in capitalization were supported by multiple factors, including RWA optimization efforts and net supplementary capital issuances of SAR 3.1 billion. During the year, net issuances of Tier 1 amounted to 2.7 billion riyals, and net 7.8 billion riyals in Tier 2 issuances.

Also worth highlighting the common equity Tier 1 ratio strengthened to 17.7%, placing us once again among the highest in the region. Finally, liquidity ratios are comfortably above prudential threshold, and the SAMA LDR stand at healthy 82.5% versus the 90% ceiling.

Moving next to guidance on page 19. Beginning with the macro outlook, the operating environment in Saudi Arabia remains robust, with continued expectation for expansion in both the overall GDP and non-oil GDP.

We expect tailwinds in the non-oil sector from lower benchmark interest rate, resilient private consumption, and continued project execution, and stable inflation, despite anticipated moderation in energy prices this year. Moving to the financial guidance, we are targeting high single-digit financing growth in 2026.

We will continue to pursue sustainable, capital-efficient, and value-accretive growth, being both selective and opportunistic. Net special commission income will also track this.

We expect mid single-digit growth as we balance cost of funds pressure with our pricing discipline. Group and domestic cost-to-income ratios should continue to be at very attractive level as we target positive jaws and continue to pursuing long-lasting efficiency gains, aiming to deliver further improvements driven by our cost-saving initiatives.

Cost of risk is expected to slightly higher than the level of 2025 as we progress in our strategy to grow in attractive segments. We'll continue our focus on maintaining strong capitalization, which should remain healthy in 2026.

In mid-January, we successfully issued US dollar 1 billion of additional Tier 1 notes, once again demonstrating our ability to access international capital markets on attractive terms. Overall, return on tangible equity is expected to remain between the 16 to 17%.

We will pursue strong net income generation, which would likely to be moderated by higher growth in the equity base driven by improvements in OCI reserves. This would be followed up by return on tangible equity re-expansion into 2027, as our CEO will cover this in the strategy update.

Back to you, Abu Khaled.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you very much, Abu Diyala. We move to slide 21.

From the start, I would like to highlight that our strategy remain intact and our priorities remain firmly in place. As the market is changing, we are also adapting.

To keep you informed, we are sharing our refreshed expectation along with our rationale for the revisions while maintaining our core return and capitalization target unchanged. Looking first at the 2024 to 2027 financing CAGR, we are updating the target to low double-digit growth.

Our focus remains on sustainable, value-driven domestic growth while at the same time prioritizing the long-term return, balance sheet efficiency, and maintaining strong capital position. To balance these consideration, we expect to maintain or expand our financing market share from the current level.

Obviously, funding is a critical component of the overall story, and this is another place where SNB shine. We know that the entire system is contending with high competition and pricing pressure for customer deposit.

Despite that, SNB has one of the strongest funding franchise in the Kingdom, with reach in both domestic and international funding markets. As we discussed, SNB has achieved very strong growth in customer deposits and CASA.

As per the latest available systemwide data, SNB CASA market share expanded by 324 basis points to reach 30.4%, with clear indications that Q4 market share strength has held up. Nevertheless, in light of the ongoing conditions, we are revisiting our expectation for the years '24 to '27 CASA CAGR target to be high single-digit to low double-digit.

Rest assured that we will spare no efforts on this front, and we will continue to keep very strong focus on our CASA acquisition strategy. In line with these updates on financing and deposits, naturally we also have to adjust the 2024-2027 CAGR for NSCI.

As a result, we now expect the NSCI to grow by high single-digit. Banking fee have seen some changes this year, and this is reflected in the result.

We are updating the expectation for the banking fee CAGR to be mid teens, considering the updated sector fees and also, of course, of the financing growth. Nevertheless, as a result of this, we are also adapting and enhancing our product offering so we can mitigate these impacts.

On the cost-to-income ratio, SNB remains among the global leaders in cost efficiency. Our investment in innovation and digitization, as well focus on overall platform efficiency, are delivering savings across our businesses.

As a result, in addition to the ratio improvement signaled in 2026 guidance, we are confident that in our ability to continue to drive positive jaw, delivering further enhancement in 2027 to reach below 24% for the group and below 20% for the domestic cost-to-income ratio. Cost of risk is expected to be modestly higher in 2026 than 2027.

This is normal given our focus on the SMEs and lucrative sectors and in line with Vision 2030. Nevertheless, we will continue focusing on our discipline in line with risk appetite, thanks to our robust credit quality and supportive operation environment.

We are upgrading our risk range for 2027 to be between 20 and 30 basis points. The target remain unchanged for return on tangible equity and capitalization, as they are the key elements of our strategy.

Going to the non-financial KPIs, I'll go quickly through this. We continue to focus on the digital efforts and the share of retail digital sales, data usage, and training per days for our employees.

Also, the main addition to highlight in the customer centricity, it's worth mentioning that we have different way to look at our customer centricity now and we will, inshallah, continue enhancing that. We will adopt the Voice of Customer framework, which will bring us more insight on the customer needs, and that will help us, inshallah, to improve our customer centricity and our customer focus.

Going to our strategic priority on slide number 23, and to conclude today's remarks, it is considered the continuing robustness of the Saudi economy despite the challenges global micro backdrop. Similarly for SNB, even with the adjustment we are making to our plan to account for the evolving market and our commitment and convictions on our ability to deliver the cornerstone of our strategy remain firmly in place.

We will continue to focus on profitable, sustainable growth in the domestic market, with our targeted return on tangible equity ranging between 17 and 18% remained unchanged. We are also preserved robust capital, which has always given the market and regulatory authority the highest level of confidence in SNB, with Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio between 19 and 20%.

I would not try to dismiss the challenging ahead. Obviously, there are always risks and obstacles, but we rely on the track record of our delivery capabilities, carefully laid strategy, strength of our people, and our optimistic spirit to give us the tools to navigate through these difficult times and economical challenges.

We will continue to focus on serving our customer and pursuing value-driven growth in order to deliver sustainable profitability and more shareholders' value creation. With that, and to give more time for Q&A, I'll open the room for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now start the Q&A session.

If you'd like to ask a question, please raise your hand through the webcast so that we can unmute your line. Alternatively, you may submit a question in writing using the Q&A feature.

Thank you for not exceeding one to two questions per caller. Our first questions come from Mohammed Al-Rasheed of Hassana.

Please unmute yourself locally and proceed with your questions. Mohammed, please unmute yourself on your device.

We aren't receiving any audio from Mohammed, we'll move on to Jon Peace from UBS. Apologies, go ahead.

You are audible.

Mohammed Al-Rasheed

Yeah. Thank you, gentlemen, for the call and congratulations on the results.

Just two questions from my side. The first one is regarding the net special commission income guidance.

You're expecting a high single-digit financing growth and a mid single-digit net special commission income growth. This means that you are applying a decline or contraction of net interest margin by around 10 basis points.

I'm just trying to understand what will drive that, given your focus on value-driven growth and the improvement we are seeing in the Turkish operation, where there is a massive new improvement over there. That's the first question.

My second question is if you can please quantify the amount of reversal that was booked in the operating expense during the fourth quarter, that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Hussein Eid

Hi, Mohammed. Regarding the net special commission income, we are relying on our efforts, for repricing activities, being selective, going into lucrative segments, and growing our portfolio.

That's will drive the CAGR basically of high single-digit, considering the three years strategy. In the same time, our effort to optimize cost of funding and diversify our funding, both of this will will put, benefits, to our NSCI, considering also the expected rate cuts during the coming periods.

Now, when it comes to reversal, we cannot specify the exact number. It is, a sizable amount when it comes to the Q1 reversal.

However, majority of the decline during the year of the full year is really coming from a cost optimization initiatives that it's that is recurring in nature and will continue into future year as well.

Mohammed Al-Rasheed

Okay. Clear.

Thank you.

Operator

Perfect. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Jon Peace of UBS. John, please unmute yourself on your side locally.

Jon Peace

Hi there. Thank you very much.

I just had a couple of questions around the revised 2027 guidance. I think in the plan a year ago, you expected other revenue to grow in the low single digits.

Now I think after a good year in 2025, consensus is probably in the low double digits rather than low single digits. Just how should we think about that line item now?

Also, I think in the original plan, you were looking to grow costs in the mid single digits. Does that absolute growth rate still apply?

Thank you very much.

Hussein Eid

I think the fees new structure has put negative impact to an extent. It's not material to the bank.

However, if you can see from disclosure that card fees actually improved in quarter four coming from higher usage. As we have a lucrative rewards plan or program for the customer that we kept intact and we didn't change, which is helped us to increase usage and therefore increase the fees coming from the volume.

We'll continue to focus on fees and investment-related income that will support this line, and it will go in sync with the financing growth. It is always our priority.

We are also exploring partnership with other parties to introduce new products and new stream of fees generation that will support the bottom line overall. For the next question, can you repeat it again, please?

Jon Peace

Yes, it was on the cost growth. You'd guided us to mid single-digit cost growth between 2024 and 2027, and I just wondered if that run rate still applied.

I can see you've given us a cost-income ratio, but do you still expect a mid single-digit CAGR in costs? Thanks.

Hussein Eid

Cost is always a focus for us. We'll keep improving our cost base and implementing more and more initiatives.

We already did a lot of initiatives that generated a cost during 2025 and it will continue in the 2027 and the next years. Also, there are some initiatives in the pipeline that will have further cost reduction and we are really sticking to our guidance that to maintain the overall group cost-to-income ratio below 25% and domestic cost-to-income ratio below 22%.

Jon Peace

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Olga Veselova of Bank of America.

Olga, please unmute yourself locally and proceed with your question.

Olga Veselova

Hello, thank you, and good day. I have two questions.

One is on provisions, another on costs. On provisions, what helps you to reduce 2027 cost of risk outlook from guidance provided just a year ago?

What shall go better than you have budgeted last year? That's question number one.

Question number two, there is improvement in cost outlook. I see that your cost-to-income ratio guidance is improved despite worsening of revenue outlook.

What remains to be optimized and you didn't optimize in the first year of strategy? What shall go better than you thought a year ago?

Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you, Olga. If you remember, on the provisioning, we said that in the 2024 and 2025, potentially these are one-offs.

We are improving really in our collection efforts and the quality of assets that we've been booking in the previous years. That's really helping us.

Whenever we have an obstacles that we are able to collect our money, we take provision in a very prudent approach, but we managed to collect and reverse this in the coming years. Now we have a good track record of that, and that gives us more comfort that in 2025 2026 and 2027, that momentum will continue of having a good recoveries from both retail and corporate.

That really the driver for the improvement guidance. I did mention and alluded before that also the judicial system in Saudi has improved significantly,

Olga Veselova

and

Tareq Al-Sadhan

now we are able to collect our money faster than in the past. These aspects really give us the comfort that in the next two years, for this year and next year, we will see a good and decent collection as we have witnessed in 2025 and 2024.

On the cost-income ratio, or on the efficiency program that we started in 2025, we believe there are still room to enhance the employee side, but also the non-employees cost side. We still see a big improvement, potential savings on IT spending and also in the employees element, where we are investing in both, but we see more room to optimize certain costs that really not bringing the value that we expected.

We believe that we will continue enhance our cost efficiency in 2026 and 2027 till we reach the right level of cost for SNB. Mm-hmm.

Olga Veselova

Thank you. When you were answering question on costs earlier during Q&A, you did mention majority of decline in costs during this year last year was from cost optimization initiatives.

Is this majority out of 10% year-over-year improvement? Is that correct way to read this?

Tareq Al-Sadhan

I I cannot give you the okay on the calculation, but we have made an excellent saving that's recurring, and that's will help us sustainable cost saving that will help us in 2026 and 2027, and we still there are room to work on other other elements. There was a one-off in the fourth quarter, but that's a a one-off that will not be coming.

Again, I think our exercise on the cost optimization will continue contribute to the enhancement in our cost-income ratio.

Olga Veselova

Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Murad Ansari of GTN Middle East.

Murad, please unmute yourself locally and proceed with your questions.

Murad Ansari

Yes, hi. Thank you for the presentation.

Just two questions. Firstly, on loan growth.

I think, even following the third quarter, I think the comments coming from most of the managements of the bank was guiding towards a slowdown in fourth quarter and slower growth in 2026. I think the general impression was that there's still quite healthy demand for credit, but banks are being cautious, a, profitability, partly some on capital ratios.

My question is that if demand is already there, what could be a factor that could help surprise on credit growth? Is it really the challenge on funding that's keeping your guidance on sub-10% as well?

Secondly, on mortgages, we've seen SAMA data come through on December numbers. Now December was quite active.

We had Cityscape as well. The numbers on mortgages on fourth quarter, unlike last year, were, although up month on month, were quite low.

My second question on this is that what would you expect a change for mortgage growth to pick up? Are the recent changes that we've seen, and we're talking about third quarter, are they supportive towards growth in mortgages or the fact that the rents have been capped for five years means that customers have more time to now make decisions and could possibly delay those home purchases?

Second question on NIMs. You're still expecting some pressure on NIMs in 2026.

Given the rate cuts and the outlook for next year, I'm just trying to understand that we're either expecting funding cost pressures to sustain, meaning liquidity situation remains tight into next year, or are asset yield declines being quicker than funding cost improvements? Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you, Murad. I'll take the first question on the loans and Abu Diyala, if you take the NIM question.

I think I did allude in my strategy part that we are seeing a market dynamics changing. We've seen a significant competition in deposits, that's increasing the cost of funding, and the cost of funding is our raw material.

We need really to manage to transfer these costs to our end customers, we'll never stop supporting the economy. Also these loans need to be priced rightly to the end customers to ensure that we maintain our margins.

With that cautious, we are adjusting our growth assumptions in the loans. We would like to go for more profitable segment, as I mentioned, the SME, MSME, and the smaller mid-caps.

That requires a lot of shifting internally, in order to achieve, let's say, 2 billion of an asset growth with small and medium companies, you will need potentially 20 clients or 30 clients, depending on the size of these tickets. That would require more efforts and more credit assessment and a lot of extensive internal exercises that will definitely potentially might impact your growth going forward in the asset side.

On the mortgage, I think the fundamental for mortgage are solid, the demand is there. I think the recent regulatory framework that came from the government to combat the inflation in real estate, has definitely impacted the appetite from the end users.

Potentially in the last three, four months, they are on the wait-and-see mode to see what implication that will come after these regulation are kicked off in January 2026. Will this means that lower land plots, developers can acquire cheaper lands that will enhance and bring more affordability to the off-plan units that's coming in the market.

Definitely the mortgage market is solid, and we expect the demand to pick up during the 2026. Abu Diyala, if the NIM question.

Hussein Eid

Okay. Murad, when it comes to the NIM, liquidity and funding, we think it's available.

However, due to competition, it's challenging, impacting the cost of fund. We believe even with the positive sensitivity, considering the decline in the benchmark, the spread over the benchmark in the cost of funding is expanding faster than the spread on the asset yields.

All in all, we are selective in our finance growth. We prefer and look for value rather than growth that dilute our value or return to our shareholders.

All in all, our repricing strategy should offset really that increase coming from the competition that is impacting the cost of fund. We are really targeting to have a flattish NIM over the medium term.

Murad Ansari

Thank you. Just a follow-up.

Would it be fair to say that banks are still facing challenges in terms of passing on the cost of higher funding to end customer? Because I think the last discussion point in the last quarter was that there was some movement on passing the incremental liquidity and capital costs to customers.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

We continue this exercise. We know that this is not a short-term exercise, is not a quick flip.

It is a continuous discussion with our clients. I think they are understanding and realizing the impact of cost of funding on the banks, and they are starting accepting the acceptance.

The repricing happens on a quarterly basis, it takes three months when you convince a client of adjusting the pricing. We start seeing that mitigating some of the cost of funding on the year.

Murad Ansari

Great. Thank you so much.

All the best for 2026.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gabor Kemeny of Autonomous.

Gabor, your line is open. Please unmute yourself locally.

Gabor Kemeny

A couple of questions from me, please. I'm trying to reconcile your 2026 guidance with the updated '27 plan.

On the NSCI, I believe you grew your NSCI by 5% last year and guide for a similar growth this year, but still a high single-digit CAGR up until '27, which I believe implies a pretty steep growth in your NSCI next year, at least 11%. Can you elaborate a bit on what you expect to drive these dynamics next year?

That's the first question. Then the second one would be on the cost-income dynamics, because I believe you guide for a bit higher, put this way, the below 25% cost-income leaves room for some deterioration from '25 levels, but then you assume a further improvement from there in '24.

Below '24. Can you elaborate a bit on these dynamics?

This bit of a bump, do you think that the cost savings initiatives you talked about earlier would come with some upfront costs perhaps in '26, or some other factors? Just finally, a technical one.

I believe you alluded to OCI gains to be recognized in equity, which might put some pressure on your ROE this year. Can you help us quantify this impact and clarify what drives this?

Thank you.

Hussein Eid

Okay. When it comes to NSCI, we are during to 2026, we're trying to set the base for 2027 by really trying to optimize our cost of fundings and reprice our asset and maintaining a better yields and maintaining intact NIM that, along with the planned growth during 2027, should give us a boost and to reach to the level of a CAGR of a high single-digit by the end of year 2027.

Also we're focusing on attracting current accounts, improving the funding mix, repricing discipline. All of this will help us really to try to get to high single-digit guidance as we have set in our 2027 strategy.

Second question, cost-to-income ratio. I think the ratio will moderate in next year definitely, but it will be within our guidance, which is upgraded really.

The group is it was 26, below 26%, now we upgraded the group to below 25%. Specifically, if you look at the domestic operation, it used to be below 23% and now it's below 22%.

Most of the initiatives is really coming from the domestic operation. As we stated earlier, we have savings that are recurring in nature and will continue, and we have new initiatives in the pipeline that will create further savings.

We are comfortable to meet our guidance or beat our guidance, inshallah, by end of year 2027. Cost opex is always in our DNA.

We always look for optimization, opportunities, digitization, automation to support our businesses as well. This is something we are confident about.

When it come to OCI gains, that's due to enhanced mix of our alternative investments, equities and funds, that we are expected to move positively with the market with our expectation of the market condition during next year and after.

Gabor Kemeny

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Shabbir Malik of Morgan Stanley.

Shabbir, please unmute yourself locally and proceed with your question.

Shabbir Malik

Hi, thank you very much. Can you hear me?

Operator

We can hear you.

Shabbir Malik

Great. Thank you very much.

My first question is around your loan growth expectations. You've obviously reduced your loan growth guidance for the three-year strategy, but it's still the CAGR is still above what you've achieved last year and what you're planning to deliver this year.

If you can maybe give us a sense what gives you some confidence about loan growth picking up potentially next year? My second question, again on loan growth, what do you think will be the key drivers of loan growth this year?

Are we going to see similar trend in retail, corporate as we saw last year driving your loan growth in 2026?

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you. Thank you, Shabbir.

Shabbir, if you recall on the call after the second quarter, we had a big settlement from one high-net-worth account that really impacted the overall growth. If you normalize that, we will be beating our target for the year, and we will be higher than also what we have put as a target for this year.

We still see the demand on loan is healthy, our ability to attract deposits as well, and that's giving us the confidence. It is our selective approach to go after the profitable tickets, which will have the reason why we are saying high single-digit on our growth.

On the corporate and retail, I think retail mortgage still healthy, and as I mentioned earlier, we expect that to recover during the coming months once the people are realizing the impact of the new introduced regulation on the real estate, the idle land taxes, and also the rent regulation that potentially impacted the decision of the individual buyers. We believe that will normalize in the coming few months, and we will see normal demand coming back on the retail activities.

Again, credit card, auto lease, and the personal loans, it is in the normal demand. Corporate again is the same, just as I mentioned, we want to extend our support mostly to the MSMEs and the lower cap markets where we can generate higher return on our loans.

Shabbir Malik

Thank you, that's very helpful. Wish you all the best for 2026.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you, Shabbir.

Operator

Thank you for your questions. We will now proceed.

Our next question comes from the line of Rahul Bajaj of Citi. Rahul, please unmute yourself locally and proceed with your questions.

Rahul Bajaj

Hi. This is Rahul Bajaj from Citi.

Thanks for taking my questions. I have two mainly.

I'll come back to the cost question again. I understand there was a big reversal in fourth quarter, one-off reversal, which you're not going to quantify.

From a modeling perspective, is it fair to assume the third quarter sort of cost run rate, quarterly cost run rate, as a fair sort of underlying run rate when we start thinking about 2026? Would you be able to say that that is a fair assumption?

That is my first question. My second question is around loan securitization.

I think on one of the slides, you mentioned there was some securitizations done on the mortgage side last year. Just wanted to understand did you do securitization in 20 in the fourth quarter as well, and what was the quantum of that loan sale?

Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you. Thank you, Rahul.

I think if you promise me not to calculate the difference between normalizing the cost, I can tell you yes, I think it's fair to apply the third quarter achievement on the cost and run it on the fourth quarter, and that would be the normal cost optimization initiatives input. On the securitization, yes, we did around 3.4 billion on the first quarter of 2025, but that was it.

We didn't do any securitization post that, nothing happened on the fourth quarter. All

Rahul Bajaj

clear. Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Naresh Bilandani of Jefferies.

Naresh, your line is open. Please unmute yourself on your side.

Naresh Bilandani

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Hi, Tareq, Hussein. It's Naresh Bilandani from Jefferies.

Thanks for your time. The update that you've provided of targets for 2027 in the face of new realities is much appreciated.

Thank you for the same. Just two related questions on those targets.

One, in light of the regulatory and competitive pressures coming through, I'm just keen to hear your thoughts on what product areas or what segments would be key in contributing to the fee income targets here. Will it be payments and cards, capital markets, trade finance, or just origination?

Because in some sense, we could perceive a pressure coming through from regulation or competition in each of these areas. Just keen to hear your thoughts on what area could outperform the other to achieve those targets.

Also, Tareq, could you please offer your view on how do you see the industry response to the Saudi brokerage pricing, an area where you have a strong market share currently, trending following the reduction to these fees to zero by one player? Are you or other players kind of compelled to match these prices or you don't see that?

Any color that you could provide on how you think the industry will reshape itself in the new reality, that would be super helpful. Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Sorry, Naresh, I was talking and it was on mute. I think, Naresh, you perfectly answered the first question.

You gave all the right examples for the segment that we're focusing on to generate the fee. I think the MSME is a great segment from a margin perspective, but also from a fee perspective.

The payments and point of sales activities also comes with a good scheme of fee. You're absolutely right, every bank is saying that they are focusing on this segment.

The beauty that this is a big segment, and we have a vast experience in handling them and a good infrastructure in the bank to cater for them, which we believe it will give us a competitive advantage, including our physical network that's around the Kingdom, where we are starting to have offices and SMEs in everywhere. Trade finance and FX also comes with these segments.

In terms of the brokerage, I think the brokerage business in Saudi has witnessed a slowdown last year, driven by the slowness in the Saudi stock market. I think in 2026, we will start seeing more recovery on the brokerage activities.

In the competition on attracting customers, we do the same, Naresh. We do offer certain clients a very competitive pricing on mortgage, some of them free.

We look at this very competitively and keep maintaining and keeping our key clients that really trade and do the brokerage activities. We'll continue monitor the market and make sure that we are always competitive and protecting and maintaining and growing our market share when it comes to brokerage.

Naresh Bilandani

Tareq, do you sense that this year, because of the moves that have been made by some industry players, the pressure could aggravate further on this line, or do you believe that's not necessarily going to be the case?

Tareq Al-Sadhan

If you look at the moves that happens from the newcomers, whether in the banking sector or in the investment side, you will always have these tactical events that they do as a campaign, and we do the same. That's a tactical elements.

We'll keep an eye on it and see the impact of it, and we are strong enough to compete.

Naresh Bilandani

Understood. Thank you, Tareq.

Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chiro Ghosh of SICO.

Chiro, your line is open. Please unmute yourself locally.

Chiro, we're not receiving any audio from your line. Please ensure you are unmuted on your side.

Chiro Ghosh

Hello. Hi.

Most of my questions have been answered. Just one last one.

If it's obvious that you're focusing more on the MSME sector, this sector should technically or ideally be earning you higher yields than your current average portfolio. Is my assumption right, because in that context, we see that there might be a mild margin pressure.

Basically, going ahead, if you can give some more clarity on that side of it, then MSME side should be ideally earning you slightly higher rate, right? So

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Yes, you're absolutely right. MSMEs are less sensitive when it come to pricing.

Again, to generate the volume, you need to have much bigger portfolio and much bigger RMs to cater for that. The answer is yes, we can charge higher for the SMEs because their risk profile is higher and they require also a certain investment on the reach for them as well.

Chiro Ghosh

I just missed the point, for every 25 basis point cut, what is your NIM sensitivity?

Hussein Eid

Hi, Chiro. I think it's 2 to 3 basis points in around 2 to 3 quarters.

However, this is assuming the benchmark decline without changing anything else. If the mix is changing, and it's the case always, and the spread impact over the benchmark has also a play in.

That's more or less a theoretical sensitivity, but it will be impacted by a lot of factors, mainly the mix and the spread expansion over the benchmark for the cost of fund and for the asset yields and pricing.

Chiro Ghosh

That's all from my side. Thank you very much.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Abdullah Al-Buraidi of Emirates NBD.

Abdullah, your line is open. Please unmute yourself locally.

Abdullah Al-Buraidi

Hello, am I audible?

Operator

You are indeed.

Abdullah Al-Buraidi

Yeah. This is Abdullah Al-Buraidi from Emirates NBD.

Thank you very much for the call and congrats for the very excellent results. I have two questions regarding the guidance, may my math help me.

We're starting the year with a higher interest-bearing asset by around 11%, and in the fourth quarter, we noticed that the NIM has bottomed out, it increased from the third quarter. You've mentioned during the call that you are focusing on the repricing activities in MSME, I can't square figures on how we are going to have a high single-digit financing growth, but the net interest income to be a mid single-digit.

Assuming even a flat financing growth for the year, it's very hard to get lower than a high single digits or low double digits. That's for the first question.

Regarding the second question, you've mentioned on the opex, the cost-to-income ratio a positive jaws, and showing such positive jaws, how are we having a higher cost-to-income ratio on the next year? I'm not sure if this means higher, because it's below 25 and even 22 is below 25.

Thank you very much.

Hussein Eid

Hi, Abdullah. When it comes to the guidance of the asset growth of 11%, comparing to the growth in the net special commission income of 5%, it's really a competitive marketing.

As we explained earlier, the cost of funding become a challenge, and the spread over the benchmark is keep increasing and increasing. You cannot pass all of this to the customer.

You can partially pass part of the spread and maintain a positive carry. It's not really that big let me say, positive carry, but this is the only way in order to grow that you need to let go some of the spreads and price selectively and just managing our cost of fund through call accounts, cheaper fundings, international fundings, and growing our retail base and the corporate base.

Now, when it come to opex, the next question is Yeah. Cost-income ratio is coming higher next year as a result of the one-off we explained during the last quarter, and it's becoming within our guidance that we are providing since the beginning of the year.

There is a temporary decline in the cost of fund to reach 20% on the domestic level that is resulted from the one-off reversal during quarter one, but then it will normalize to a level of below 22% as per suggested in our guidance.

Abdullah Al-Buraidi

Thank you very much. That's very informative on the second question.

On the first one, do you see a good probability of beating that guidance as a fair question?

Hussein Eid

Which one? The loan or the NSCI?

Abdullah Al-Buraidi

No, the NSCI.

Hussein Eid

It depends on the market dynamics, to be honest. This is really a challenging target.

As we stand today, this is our expectation to grow around in a mid single-digit. However, if the markets allow us for a better

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Abdullah, there is a lot of changes in the last quarter and this beginning of the year. I think we will be in a much better position in the mid-year earning call to have a view.

If we have to adjust this by mid-year, looking at the first six months of the year, we will come back to you. Even if we see more stability and more clarity on the dynamics, we will come back on the first quarter.

I think it's fair to keep it at this and reassess it again in June by the call that we will be doing, inshallah, in July.

Abdullah Al-Buraidi

Great. Shukran Abu Khaled, Abu Diyala.

Thank you very much.

Hussein Eid

Thank you.

Tareq Al-Sadhan

Thank you, Abdullah.

Operator

Thank you. We have now reached the end of today's call.

Please note that for any remaining questions, you may kindly reach out to SNB's IR team. Mr.

Iyad Ghulam, back to you for the conclusion.

Iyad Ghulam

SNB Capital would like to thank SNB management for taking the time to conduct this call. We would like also to thank all participants for attending.

Wish you a pleasant day.