Operator
Greetings. Welcome to Zions Bancorp fourth quarter earnings conference call.
At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation.
If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded.
I will now turn the conference over to Shannon Drage, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you and you may begin.
Shannon Drage
Thank you, Vaughn, and good evening, everyone. Welcome to our conference call to discuss the fourth quarter and full year earnings for 2025.
My name is Shannon Drage, Senior Director of Investor Relations. I would like to remind you that during this call we will be making forward-looking statements.
Please note that actual results may differ materially, and we encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or slide two of the presentation dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures, which applies equally to statements made during this call. A copy of the earnings release as well as the presentation are available at ZionsBancorporation.com.
For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Harris Simmons will provide opening remarks. Following Harris's comments, Ryan Richards, our Chief Financial Officer, will review our financial results.
Also with us today are Scott McLean, President and Chief Operating Officer, Derek Stewart, Chief Credit Officer, and Chris Kyriakakis, Chief Risk Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will hold a question and answer session, and the call is scheduled for one hour.
I will now turn the time over to Harris Simmons.
Harris Simmons
Thanks very much, Shannon, and good evening to all of you. You see on slide three, our fourth quarter results reflected continued progress and steady improvement across a variety of key financial metrics.
Earnings of $262 million were up meaningfully, 19% from the prior quarter and 31% from a year ago, driven by stronger revenues and notably lower provision for credit losses. Our net interest margin expanded for the eighth consecutive quarter to 3.31%, benefiting from an improved funding mix, as customer deposits initiatives reduced our reliance on short-term borrowings.
Customer deposits grew at a healthy pace, up 9% annualized. Average loans were essentially flat compared with last quarter, reflecting the payoffs we saw at the end of last quarter, though period-end balances increased by $615 million from solid production.
Credit quality was strong, with net charge-offs just five basis points annualized of total loans. This quarter's results also included a $15 million donation to a charitable foundation to be spent down over the next three years to make charitable donations that we expect would otherwise have been non-deductible for tax purposes as a result of the recent tax law changes.
Turning to slide four, full year results were similarly improved relative to the prior year. Earnings grew 21% and net interest margin expanded by 21 basis points.
Adjusted PPNR increased 12%, and when excluding the charitable contribution, we achieved over 300 basis points of positive operating leverage. After several years of industry-wide disruption, from the 2020 pandemic to the 2023 regional bank crisis and stress in the commercial real estate sector, we're pleased with the resilience of our performance, particularly the stability in credit outcomes throughout that period.
Tangible book value per share increased 21% this year, the third straight year of growth greater than 20%, and we believe that we're nearing the point where we'll be able to increase capital distributions while continuing to further strengthen capital. On slide five, diluted earnings per share was $1.76, up from $1.48 last quarter and $1.34 a year ago.
This quarter's figure includes an eight-cent per share headwind from the charitable contribution, offset by a positive 11-cent per share combined impact from the reversal of the FDIC special assessment and net gains in our SBIC portfolio. As shown on slide six, adjusted PPNR of $331 million was down 6% sequentially and up 6% year over year.
When further adjusted for the aforementioned charitable contribution, it was down 2% versus last quarter and up 11% versus the year-ago quarter. With that high-level overview, I'm going to turn the time over to our Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Richards, for additional details related to our performance.
Ryan Richards
Ryan. Thank you, Harris, and good evening, all.
Beginning on slide seven, you will see the five-quarter trend for net interest income and net interest margin. Net interest income increased by $56 million, or 9%, relative to the fourth quarter of 2024, and increased by $11 million relative to the prior quarter.
For the second consecutive quarter, growth in average customer deposits in excess of loan growth aided our ability to improve funding mix and reduce overall funding costs. As a result, net interest margin expanded for the eighth consecutive quarter to 3.31%.
Our outlook for net interest income for the full year of 2026 is moderately increasing relative to the full year of 2025, supported by a favorable earning asset and interest-bearing liability remix in addition to growth in loans and deposits. Our guidance assumes two 25 basis point cuts to the Fed funds rate occurring in June and September of this year.
Slide eight presents additional details on changes in the net interest margin. The leaned quarter waterfall chart on the left outlines changes in both rate and volume for key components of the net.
The net interest margin expanded by three basis points sequentially as improved funding mix and lower borrowing costs offset reductions in asset yields. Against the year-ago quarter, the right-hand chart on this slide presents the 26 basis point improvement in the net interest margin, which benefited from the improved cost of deposits.
Moving to non-interest income and revenue on slide nine, presented on the left in the darker blue bars, customer-related non-interest income was $177 million for the quarter versus $163 million in the prior period and $176 million one year ago. You will recall that last quarter's customer-related non-interest income results included an $11 million impact from the net CVA loss, primarily driven by an update in our valuation methodology.
Adjusted customer-related non-interest income, which excludes net CVA, was $175 million for the quarter, representing a new record quarter for the company. This increased $1 million versus the prior quarter and $2 million versus the year-ago quarter.
The chart on the right side of this page presents both total revenue and adjusted revenue for the most recent five quarters, which were impacted by the factors previously noted for net interest income and customer-related fee income. While not presented on this page, it is notable that on a full-year basis, capital markets fees, excluding net CVA, increased 25% compared to the full year 2024, driven by higher customer swaps, investment banking, and loan syndication fee revenues.
As was mentioned in prior earnings call, we set an aspirational goal to have capital markets fees when Zions Capital Markets was formally launched in 2020, consolidating existing product offerings under new, effective leadership with a mandate to invest in additional capabilities. We have accomplished that goal and see continued opportunity for outside growth in this business.
Our outlook for customer-related fee income for the full year 2026 is moderately increasing relative to the full year 2025. We currently expect that we will be at the top end of that guide.
Growth will continue to be led by capital markets, followed by loan-related fees with broad-based growth and the remaining categories from increased activity. Slide 10 presents adjusted non-interest expense in the lighter blue bars.
Adjusted expenses of $548 million increased by $28 million, or 5% versus the prior quarter, and increased 8% versus the year-ago quarter. As presented here, adjusted non-interest expense includes the aforementioned $15 million charitable donation.
When further adjusting for the donation, expenses were up 2% versus the prior quarter and up 5% versus the year-ago quarter. Expense increases for the quarter include increased marketing and business development expenses, higher costs associated with application software licensing and maintenance costs, and normalization of legal fees after an approximate $2 million reimbursement of attorney fees last quarter.
We expect to continue to manage expenses prudently while investing in revenue generation to support growth. Our outlook for adjusted non-interest expense for the full year 2026 is moderately increasing relative to the full year of 2025.
The expense outlook considers increased marketing-related costs, continued investments in revenue-generating people and business lines, and increases in contractual technology costs. We continue to expect positive operating leverage in 2026 that we currently estimate around 100 to 150 basis points.
Slide 11 presents the five-quarter trend in average loans and deposits. Average loans were flat over the previous quarter and 2.5% over the year-ago period.
Ending loans increased by $615 million sequentially, with strong commercial growth in our Texas, California, and Pacific Northwest markets. Total O'Neills decreased 15 basis points sequentially.
Our outlook for period-end loan balances for the full year 2026 is moderately increasing relative to the full year of 2025 and assumes growth will be led by commercial loans, primarily in the CNI and owner-occupied subcategories, with additional growth from commercial real estate loans. Average deposit balances are presented on the right side of the slide.
Relative to the prior quarter, total average deposits increased 2.3%. Average non-interest-bearing deposits grew $1.7 billion, or 6% compared to the prior quarter.
This was partially as a result of the approximate $1 billion migration into a new customer interest-bearing product—migration of a consumer interest-bearing product into a new non-interest-bearing product at the end of last quarter, which is now being fully reflected in average balances but also represents the success our bankers have had this quarter in executing on deposit-gathering initiatives. The cost of total deposits declined by 11 basis points sequentially to 1.56%.
It is somewhat by the lag effect from time deposits repricing from benchmark rate cuts in the latter part of 2025. Further opportunity to reduce deposit costs will depend upon the timing and speed of short-term benchmark rate changes, growth in customer deposits, and competition in market depositor behavior.
Slide 12 provides additional details on funding sources and total funding costs. Presented on the left are period-end deposit balances, which grew by $766 million versus the prior quarter, enabling us to reduce higher-cost short-term borrowings, which declined by $653 million, or 17% during the quarter.
As seen on the chart on the right, our total funding cost declined by 16 basis points during the quarter to 1.76%. The trending in our securities and money market investment portfolios over the last five quarters is presented on slide 13.
Maturities, principal amortizations, and prepayment-related cash flows from our securities portfolio were $554 million during the quarter, or $288 million when considered net of reinvestment. The paydown and reinvestment of lower-yielding securities continues to contribute to the favorable remix of our earning assets.
The duration of our investment securities portfolio, which is a measure of price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, is estimated at 3.8 years. Credit quality is presented on slide 14.
Realized net charge-offs in the portfolio were 11 million—were 7 million this quarter, or 5 basis points annualized. Non-performing assets remain relatively low at 52 basis points of loans and other real estate owned, compared to 54 basis points in the prior quarter.
Classified loan balances declined sequentially by $35 million, driven by a $132 million reduction in CRE, offset in part by a $92 million increase in CNI classified loans. We expect the CRE classified balances will continue to decline going forward through payoffs and upgrades.
During the fourth quarter, we recorded a $6 million provision for credit losses, which, when combined with our net charge-offs, reduced the allowance for credit losses by $1 million relative to the prior quarter. The allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans declined 1 basis point to 1.19%, and the loan loss allowance coverage with respect to non-accrual loans decreased to 215%.
Slide 15 provides an overview of the $13.4 billion CRE portfolio, which represents 22% of loan balance. Notably, this portfolio continues to maintain low levels of non-accruals and delinquencies.
The portfolio is granular and well-diversified by property type and location, with its growth carefully managed for over a decade through disciplined concentration limits. As it continues to be of interest, we have included additional details on certain CRE portfolios in the appendix of this presentation.
Our loss-absorbing capital position is shown on slide 16. The common equity Tier 1 ratio for the quarter was 11.5%.
This, when combined with the allowance for credit losses, compares well to our risk profile as reflected in performance for loan losses. We expect our common equity, both from a regulatory and GAAP perspective, to continue increasing organically through earnings, and the AOCI improvement will continue through unrealized loss accretion in the securities portfolio as individual securities pay down and mature.
Importantly, our organic earnings growth, when coupled with AOCI unrealized loss accretion, has enabled us to grow tangible book value per share by 21% versus the prior year and, as Harris noted earlier, is our third year of tangible book value growth in excess of 20%. We believe that we are nearing a position to increase capital distributions while continuing to invest in our franchise to support profitable growth.
Slide 17 summarizes the financial outlook provided over the course of our prepared remarks for the full year of 2026 as compared to the full year of 2025. Our outlook represents our best estimate of financial performance based on current information.
Shannon Drage
This concludes our prepared remarks. As we move to the question and answer section of the call, we request that you limit your questions to one primary and one follow-up question to enable other participants to ask questions.
Vaughn, can you please open the line for questions?
Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session.
As stated, the format will be for one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad.
A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue.
For any participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing your star key. Our first question comes from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.
You may proceed with your question.
Manan Gosalia
Hi, good afternoon all. I just wanted to start with a quick clarification question, just on the guide for expenses.
What is the base for the moderately increasing guide? I know you have at the back of the earnings release an adjusted non-interest expense number of 2.122.
Is that the right base, or should we also be stripping out the charitable contribution for this quarter?
Ryan Richards
I would ask you to think about the base, stripping out the charitable contribution for this quarter, and then rolling forward into next year, thinking about, really that activity relates to, as Harris mentioned, a three years forward look about things that might otherwise be tax deductible with the spend outlay at that time. That's probably where I would anchor you.
Manan Gosalia
Got it. Basically take that 2122 number and then strip out the charitable contribution from that and then do moderately increasing off of that.
Okay.
Ryan Richards
That's certainly how I see a better core result,
Harris Simmons
yes.
Manan Gosalia
Got it. All right, perfect.
Then just a broader question on expenses. You guys operate in a pretty attractive footprint, and we've seen a lot of larger banks come out and highlight growth in branches in new markets, including some of yours.
Are you seeing any increased competition in your markets? If you are, is that the driver behind some of the increased marketing and tech spend that you called out in the deck?
Harris Simmons
I think we have for as long as I can remember, we face new competition, particularly during good times. These times are reasonably good, and sometimes they go away when times turn tough.
That is not per se what is driving our focus on increased marketing spend. It's a revamp of some of our products, and it's a belief that after spending the better part of a decade doing a lot of internal reengineering and fixing a lot of plumbing, that we're really in a position to be able to grow at a better clip than we have been over the last decade.
We want to do it prudently and carefully. We care a lot about the credit culture in the company, etc.
We're determined to actually spend more on growth initiatives. That's what you've seen this past year.
You'll continue to see that in the coming year. It's not because of any particular new entrant or anything like that, although they're certainly there.
We're in markets that are pretty attractive, and so that's wonderful, but the dark underside of that is it's attractive to folks who aren't here yet. That's always part of the story.
Manan Gosalia
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Dave Rochester with Cantor Fitzgerald. You may proceed with your question.
Dave Rochester
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Just want to start on the NII outlook for '26.
Appreciate all the color on the rate cuts. I was just wondering what you're assuming for the funding of loan growth, if you're assuming that securities runoff continues and you fill in the rest with deposit growth, and then the magnitude of any kind of funding remix out of broker deposits or out of wholesale funding that you're assuming within that guide.
Any color on any of that would be great. Thanks.
Ryan Richards
Thanks, Dave, and I can give you some broad strokes. We don't typically deconstruct the growth or have any specific guidance about that moving forward to the year.
To your earlier point, certainly we see the potential for a remix on both sides of the balance sheet contributing to the NII outcome. We believe we still have some room to run with the investment securities portfolio before we really feel pinched on how we think about liquidity stress testing and liquidity ratios.
That said, I don't know that we'll continue to see it maybe as forceful as it has been in the past. We're probably getting closer to a taper point.
There is room for additional remixing out of securities into loans and/or paying down broker deposits or wholesale funding. We're spending a lot of time, building back from Harris's comments, thinking about growth and what growth looks like for 2026.
We certainly have some aspirations and some plans, more than aspirations, to build out our deposit base, focusing on granular deposit growth and putting marketing dollars behind initiatives that would help us drive that, with the intent, of course, of continuing to pay down those broker deposits where we've had good success year over year, but also other short-term borrowings and the like. That is certainly where we're headed, intend to be headed as an organization.
Dave Rochester
Great, sounds good. Then I know you guys have, we talked about this in the last call, talked about a 350 margin.
We're only 19 bps away from that now in '26. Is this something you think that we can hit by the end of 2027?
Harris Simmons
Hey, I'm not going to hazard a put a time frame on it. I think it has so much to do with what happens with rates.
We're going to have a new Fed chair. We're going to have more going on there than I want to hazard a guess about.
As I've said previously, my comment about is really intended to suggest that I think over time that that's probably getting pretty close to what a stable state could look like for us. We've made a lot of progress.
We've got a ways to go. I continue to believe that over a longer period of time that the risk is to higher rates.
We've reduced our asset sensitivity somewhat. We're closer to neutral right now.
I think very mindful of the possibility of higher rates and want to be careful that we can deal with that. In a prolonged period where you have kind of moderate short-term rates, some slope to the curve, I think that's where we can get to.
Whether that happens in the next seven or eight quarters, harder part to say.
Dave Rochester
All right. Great.
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. You may proceed with your question.
John Pancari
Good afternoon. On the loan growth front, I appreciate the moderately increasing guide.
Underneath that, could you help unpack it a little bit in terms of what type of dynamics you're seeing on the loan growth front? Are you seeing demand strengthen?
Are you seeing some pull through in terms of line utilization? Are any of these growth initiatives that you just discussed, Harris, in response to the question, is that banker hiring that in certain areas that can drive some of this growth?
Harris Simmons
Thanks. We've hired some really good bankers, particularly in the California market, but elsewhere as well.
We are very focused on small business lending. That's really central to our thinking about growth, is banking smaller businesses.
They bring great deposits. We think that our history and our organizational structure and our people are really geared toward that kind of business in a big way.
We've seen this past year a near doubling of the number of SBA 7(a) loans that we made, about a 53% increase in dollars produced. I expect that we'll continue to see very strong growth in that category.
We're putting training dollars and marketing dollars and a lot of focus into that. Not just the SBA program, but just banking smaller business generally.
If there's a particular sweet spot for me, it's kind of watching what happens there. A dollar of growth there is better typically than a couple of dollars of growth in a lot of other places.
It's not always just the percentages. It's kind of the quality.
We're really trying to build a balance sheet that is more productive and is growing and is serving more customers at the same time. That's, in a nutshell, how I think about it.
Scott McLean
Hey John, this is Scott. I would just add to that that similar to what I said last quarter, the growth is really going to come in CNI and owner-occupied.
We do think we're going to see some growth in CRE. Our goal, for as long as you've been covering us, has been that we want to grow CRE a little less than we're growing the overall portfolio.
We fall a little short on that recently, but I think you'll see some CRE growth where we haven't seen much in the past. I think our municipal business and our energy business are two businesses that have some nice upside potential and make that whole flat.
Clearly, the real estate, the sentiment about CRE and tariffs and economy has caused the whole industry to see sort of sobering loan growth numbers. I think we're well positioned as business sentiment improves for the reasons Harris said, but also our— this is going to sound kind of squishy, but it's true.
Our call programs are more energized than ever before, and this advertising spend and marketing spend that Harris referenced, it's not just incrementally. It's not just sort of a sequential thing.
It's a significant change, and it's very targeted to small and medium-sized businesses, granular deposits, this SBA initiative that Harris mentioned. So
Harris Simmons
I'd add one other thing, and that is, if you look across the industry, a lot of the commercial loan growth has come out of increased exposure to NDFI, the NDFI sector. Notwithstanding having stepped on a landmine in the fourth quarter, we have not been growing our portfolio and don't really intend to in any kind of meaningful way, any deliberate way.
The relative share says actually is kind of a headwind comparatively to peers. My hope is that we can actually make up for that, again, in some of these areas we've been talking about, small business.
We will have some CRE growth, and we'll probably see a little bit of municipal growth. A lot of it will be commercial, in peer.
And
Ryan Richards
just underscoring what both Harris and Scott have said and bridging back to Dave's earlier question, it's not just the trade-off between securities and loans or brokered deposits or wholesale borrowing. It's the mix within the loan portfolio that both Harris and Scott described that will be beneficial for NII as we're seeing it.
The other part that I didn't pick up in my earlier response was, and we talk about it, the terminated swap effects, speaking of headwinds. That's been a headwind for us that's been diminishing thankfully over time, that as we chart the year of 2026, we see about $29 million worth of headwind associated with that.
It's about half of what it was in 2025 as being another contributor towards a better NII outcome for 2026.
John Pancari
Got it. All right.
Thanks for all that color. Then secondly, on capital, I just wanted to get your updated thoughts on potential timing of a return of share buybacks.
I believe you had indicated you're kind of nearing the point where you could consider capital return, an increase in it. I think your CET1 ratio, which you've been watching a little more closely, increased about 40 basis points this quarter, and then your CET1 up 60 bps.
Both TCE and CET1 heading in the right direction. Curious what your updated thoughts are there.
I think it's probably this year, but probably not this next quarter. In the second half, I think you'll see, I would expect we're going to be in a position to start to accelerate capital returns.
Harris Simmons
Thanks. I'm not going to give you a target amount, etc.
At some point, when we're in a position to do so, we'll announce something. I don't think it's a long ways off.
Operator
Our next question comes from Chris McGratty with KBW. You may proceed with your question.
Chris McGratty
Oh, great, thanks. Just following up on that question on the buyback.
I know during the 2023 banking drama, the rating agencies got pretty loud about capital levels. I guess when you do announce, or when you are preparing to announce the buyback, how important is that?
Again, is that a tangible common equity consideration versus CET1? How are you thinking about all the constituents?
Ryan Richards
Listen, clearly that's an important stakeholder for us, and we really appreciate the engagement that we get. Certainly I think they've appreciated the fact that we've been in build-back mode here for a good long time.
We're not suggesting there's a wholesale change here. I think it's more of a recognition that we're still building back on an AOCI inclusive basis to where we think peers are.
It's just the timing, whether there's an opportunity to kind of change the pacing of how long it takes to converge. As Harris pointed out, that you have to be determined.
All those things are subject to OCC approval and board approval. We continue to thank you for John's acknowledgement earlier that there's been some really good trending on this basis.
We've seen that as well, and it's showing up in our statistics and how we're growing our tangible book value, all really positive. When you look at that headline number, there's a lot to like on it.
We still tend to screen lower among our peer set when you include AOCI. We're not giving up on this kind of tangible book value accretion path that we're pursuing.
It's just a question of whether there's an opportunity to do something along the way while you're driving convergence.
Harris Simmons
I think it's helpful that a good portion of this tangible common equity build has been facilitated by— it's locked in place. It's highly predictable, and that ought to be important to rating agencies as it is to us, that it's something that time takes care of as much as anything.
We'll feather things in. It's not going to be a cliff event, but we want to continue to build capital.
We're looking at it, CET1. We think about it in a world where AOCI is included in the number.
Also, from a regular perspective, it looks like there's nothing really imminently on the horizon that would change the current treatment of AOCI in capital. I think we'll have some room.
Chris McGratty
Great. Thank you.
Thanks for all that color. The follow-up would be on the source of deposit growth.
You may have touched on it, I apologize. Ryan, about 5% non-interest-bearing growth in 2025.
I hear you on the initiatives. Within your guide for 26, did I miss?
What are you assuming for NIB growth or NIB mix?
Ryan Richards
We don't typically guide on the deposit side of that, Chris. Certainly, we just try to roll it into our NII, and now we see that holistically.
Suffice to say, based upon the things that we're prioritizing for strategic initiatives, that we certainly would expect to see growth across the non-interest-bearing dimension as well as interest-bearing deposits, trying to pull those whole relationships, net new relationships into the bank. That's where that whole growth orientation you're hearing from us, not just this year, but going into last year, putting some market dollars, some real focus behind those campaigns in terms of the refreshing, as Harris alluded to before, of our offerings, potential with the bundled products that we think are really relevant for our clients and the like.
Chris McGratty
Great. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator
Our next question comes from Bernard Von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed with your question.
Hi, good afternoon.
Bernard Von Gizycki
Maybe just following up on non-interest-bearing deposits, I'm just curious that most of the growth there, the $1.1 billion year-over-year, and then the decline, $310 million sequentially, was there growth from new customer acquisitions within the consumer Gold account? Can you just share now that legacy account migration has now ended, how do you expect this to trend from what you've been hearing from the branches?
Harris Simmons
There was. There has been growth, although these accounts we've opened new.
These aren't just conversions of existing accounts, but new accounts we've opened, about 4,000 of them, since we relaunched this a few months ago. I expect that number to pick up in '26.
We're seeing average balances of about $10,000 per account. For established accounts, we're seeing it's about triple that.
In other words, it's attracting a kind of clientele that we think actually can lead to really substantial balances. The total size of the deposit relationship in this whole portfolio of almost 50,000 accounts averages about $125,000 per customer.
We think it's a really attractive kind of focus group to be focused on, and that it should help. It also, I think, non-interest-bearing accounts are also subject to what happens to interest rates.
A big portion of the commercial ones are supporting the provision of services through account analysis, for example. There are a lot of other things going on that move these numbers around, but we're trying to make sure that as we think about the long term, that we're continuing to build a really solid base of granular accounts that are smaller, they're insured, but they're not tiny.
They're actually really good business. That's what we're trying to do.
Scott McLean
I would just add that the number Harris referenced of sort of net new kind of accounts, we're really just kicking this campaign off. We were piloting it in the second half of '25, but it's now rolling out with greatly enhanced marketing across the entire company.
Yeah.
Bernard Von Gizycki
I appreciate that. Just my follow-up, I think you've indicated in the past that you expect two to three basis points a quarter fixed rate asset repricing.
You mentioned the two rate cuts assumed in '26. Just update us here, same assumption, and if the Fed is at a rate cut pause, how does that estimate change, if at all?
Ryan Richards
Thanks, Bernard. What we're currently seeing now, obviously with the changes we had later in last year, we're not seeing quite that level in terms of fixed loan repricing impacts on our earning asset yields.
Right now we would say it's at around one basis point, as opposed to what we were previously. Then with additional cuts in the future, you can imagine that it would erode that value opportunity for us.
Operator
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Our next question comes from Ken Usdin with Autonomous Research. You may proceed with your question.
Ken Usdin (Co-Head of Autonomous US Large-Cap Banks and Senior Analyst, Autonomous Research):
Ken Usdin
Hi, good afternoon. Just wondering, I know the question of tailoring has come up on prior calls, but now that there's been even more discussion from the regulatory front about the potential to either index levels or maybe even raise the bar fully, are you thinking about anything differently with the asset base still hanging around 90 billion in terms of either future growth, investments you have to make, your outlook on acquisitions, et cetera, as we wait maybe a more formal change than we've seen in a couple years?
Thanks. Yeah,
Harris Simmons
Ken, as we've said periodically over the last couple of years, even without the announcements from the OCC with respect to their heightened expectations rule and others, similar kinds of changes that they've imposed or made, we didn't see the $100 billion threshold as posing any real kind of a threat. We noted we were, because we were actually the smallest systemically important financial institution in the wake of the passage of Dodd-Frank back in 2011.
We were subject to all the industrial-strength stuff that JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America and everybody else was. We built the capabilities, the models, not only for credit stress testing and stressing the balance sheet, but liquidity, et cetera.
All of the work that went in, building sort of COSO compliant three lines of defense, risk management infrastructure, et cetera. Our tendency has been to never dismantle that.
We found a lot of value in it. Some of it was taken to extremes.
Some of it was some of the documentation, et cetera, was painful and overly expensive, et cetera. We've maintained the capabilities, and it I think makes us a stronger company.
We just don't think there's even much of any kind of speed bump going across 100 billion. We don't feel compelled to try and if you're going to cross 100, you got to get to 200, or anything like that of the sort.
It's going to be about the same as crossing 80 was, which was kind of a non-event. That's how we're thinking about it.
It's not an inhibitor in terms of thinking about deals. It's not a reason that we would think about deals.
We'd only think about deals in the event that they were really, really attractive. Right now, it's, I don't know that we're likely to see anything.
Now, we need to improve our valuation. If something comes along that is absolutely, absolutely compelling, we'll certainly consider it.
We're not going to be taking pledges or painted into a corner of thinking about things in a particular way. I hope we'll think about it as good long-term ownership of a business would.
The hundred billion threshold isn't a factor one way or the other in that thinking. Ken Usdin (Co-Head of Autonomous US Large-Cap Banks and Senior Analyst, Autonomous Research):
Ken Usdin
Understood, thanks. Ryan, one just follow-up on the operating leverage point earlier.
Is it the right way to think about it? You mentioned the core base and then add back the charitable, take out the charitable contribution.
That's the base in which you're talking about the hundred to hundred fifty basis points of operating leverage?
Ryan Richards
That's correct. And Ken Usdin (Co-Head of Autonomous US Large-Cap Banks and Senior Analyst, Autonomous Research):
Ken Usdin
just the range, it's great to hear you guys focusing to the hundred, hundred fifty, but what would be the difference on your expense growth? Would it just be how revenues come out and you have some flex to triangulate up and down.
Sorry for that extra one.
Ryan Richards
I think you always have to recognize that if the revenue environment changes, you have to rethink the way that you approach your expense side of it. I just included that as part of my written remarks and spoken remarks because it wasn't obvious, of course, with our forward guidance and where we choose whether or not there was positive operating leverage in there.
We absolutely believe that's the case as we see it today. That's where, if you look at what our results have been for quite a long time, we've been pretty consistent in driving customer fee growth on a compound annual growth rate of about 4%.
That's really what we showed up with this past year as well. We think we see an opportunity to do a little better on that dimension moving forward, building on some of the momentum we've been having in our businesses.
That's going to be, we think, really helpful in driving some of that leverage. We'll pay attention to expenses as we move through the year.
Harris has always said we're going to run this place for the long term. We're going to invest in growth and do things that maybe in the moment don't pay for themselves.
We've had some pretty nice returns on the investments we've been making in recent years. That's how we're thinking about it.
Ken Usdin
Ken Usdin (Co-Head of Autonomous US Large-Cap Banks and Senior Analyst, Autonomous Research): Got it. Thanks.
I appreciate you pointing that out.
Operator
Our next question comes from David Smith with Truist. You may proceed with your question.
David Smith
Hi, good afternoon.
Harris Simmons
On credit,
David Smith
hey, on credit, you highlighted an expectation for CRE classifieds to continue to decline. There had been an uptick in C&I classifieds offsetting some of the CRE decline we had this past quarter.
Is there anything chunky in that $92 million C&I increase this quarter in terms of a few big figurative names? Just as a follow-up, would you also expect general stability in the C&I classifieds size of the portfolio, or would there be a bias towards an increase or a decrease as you see things today?
Thank you.
Derek Stewart
Sure. David, this is Derek.
Let me answer the second question first. It's hard to say exactly where the C&I downgrades may come from or improvement.
It just generally depends on the economy. We do see CRE improving throughout the year.
We have a good line of sight on that. We just continue to see it taking a little longer for some companies to perform.
One thing I will say, because we're not concerned with losses, I think we're going to try to retain a lot of the loans. We may be willing to carry some of the criticized and classified real estate loans a little bit longer just because they're on their way to performance and an upgrade.
As far as the C&I downgrades, I wouldn't say there's anything chunky in there. It's pretty broadly distributed across industries, and it's something we're watching.
Again, it depends on where the economy goes. I would point out that while we've seen the uptick this quarter in the C&I classifieds, we're actually down since year end 2024 for C&I classifieds.
It's not jumping out as a concern at this point, but something that we're paying attention to.
David Smith
All right. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Anthony Elian with JPMorgan. You may proceed with your question.
Anthony Elian
Hi everyone. A follow-up on operating leverage.
You gave us the base for expenses, backing out the foundation contribution, but just to clarify the base for revenue, Ryan, does the base for fee income exclude the adjusted non-customer fees? I think that was $44 million you have in the back of the press release.
Ryan Richards
Can you say that one more time?
Anthony Elian
I'm just curious if you can give us the base for fee income, right? You have some items you back out on slide 5 and the back of the press release.
If you can give us the base to use for operating leverage, that would be great.
Harris Simmons
I think it's basically the customer fee income.
Anthony Elian
It's hard to predict year to year what we're going to get on security gains and losses, so that's just not how we think about quarterly expenses. Yeah.
Okay.
Harris Simmons
What's stable is customer-related non-interest income. Yeah.
Anthony Elian
Okay. Then my follow-up.
From this call, it sounds like there's a lot more emphasis on growth initiatives this year, including hiring, which I fully appreciate, but you left the expense outlook unchanged. I'm wondering if there's directionally a range you point us to for expenses within your guidance of moderately increasing.
Thank you.
Ryan Richards
Listen, if we reverse the tape about a year ago, we were coming out of a time when we were keeping things, I think, pretty tight. Slightly increasing would have been more, and maybe at times slightly to moderately.
We allowed that to start migrating up because of this growth agenda. I don't know that I would point you to a specific point.
We usually talk about moderately being a mid-single digits type number. I probably just point you somewhere to the middle of that.
We'll see what we get. Really the intent here is to do things that feel strategic to us and it should feel different and look different if we're successful in executing our growth goals.
The types of numbers that we're talking about that Scott alluded to before may not be fully evident, but we have some real aspirations in driving commercial loan growth and allowing for some increased CRE. There could be some offsets there in the sense that, we've talked a little bit in the past about what we're doing on our one to four family resi strategy and having more of an orientation to help for sale.
We think that there's potential for more of that to show up this year, but without that, we could really put, I think, some decent loan numbers up.
Scott McLean
On the expense guide, also I would just say that there's, and we've said this in previous years, but there's probably about $40 million of savings initiatives in there that keep us at the expense growth rate number that we're at. This isn't just, it's just the same as last year plus a little bit more.
There's quite a bit of work on continued efficiency gains and optimization, and particularly with AI and some of the things we're doing with process change and new technologies that can help us lower costs as well as outsourcing. We have a lot of levers to pull on, and that helps keep the expense number down and has for years.
There's nothing new about it.
Anthony Elian
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen. You may proceed with your question.
Janet Lee
Good afternoon. For clarification on NIM, if I look at your earning asset yields in the fourth quarter, it looks like lower rates had an impact on your earning asset yields declining about 15 basis points, and you talked about one basis point of fixed-rate asset repricing lift.
If I assume two to three rate cuts in 2026, is it fair to say earning asset yields are declining through 2026 and the NIM trajectory is really dependent on the shape of the yield curve and what you can do on the deposit front?
Ryan Richards
Alice, I think those are all fair observations. Deposit production and our success there will always have an outsized impact on how we show up on NIM.
Our success year over year has been, I've been able to manage down our funding costs more aggressively than what we're seeing in terms of on the asset side because we've had some really nice remix that's an offset to some of the things that would otherwise play through on the resetting of benchmark rates. We haven't gotten yet, and it's almost like I can't imagine we go through a call without saying something about latent emergence type things.
We do conclude some of those materials in the back. I think Harris alluded to before, we took a little bit of the edge off of some of our asset sensitivity metrics that you would have otherwise seen us maybe earlier through some hedging activities that we put on, just trying to guard against maybe some near-term rate cuts.
What the asset sensitivity would tell you is that we still think that there is opportunities for things to play through on a lags basis, things that haven't already found price discovery on fixed assets playing through. We have about 60% of our term deposits that are set to reprice in the first quarter of 2026.
As a group that's still asset sensitive on the whole, we say we show with the overlay of the forward curve that, again, just using a sensitivity view, that we could stand to have a better one-year, quarter-forward outcome even against the backdrop of a forward curve that would imply two more rate cuts. That, of course, doesn't take into account our prospects for loan growth and a dynamic balance sheet, the mix of our loans, how we would be taking cash flows from our securities portfolio and reinvesting them in other places, including loans and other gainful uses.
There's lots of contributing factors in there. Hopefully that gives you a little bit of direction about how we feel and how we're guiding for NII one year hence.
Janet Lee
Thank you. That was very helpful.
Clearly you've made some good strides in improving your capital levels, including AOCI accretion that has happened over the past years. Clearly you're more open to doing buybacks over the near to intermediate term.
Could you give us a refresh on your M&A stance? Well,
Harris Simmons
I think I did a few minutes ago. Our stance is we don't have a stance per se.
We're not looking for deals. They come along and they make a whole lot of sense, might be interested.
I don't see us doing anything really large. That would surprise me at the moment.
It's just not a part of our day-to-day kind of thinking, frankly, in terms of what we're really focused on. I've been pretty determined to not say that we'd never do a deal or anything of that sort.
That said, we're not looking to do deals to, as I said earlier, to become a particular size, or, we do things that we think are really, really attractive financially and fit culturally, et cetera. It has to check some boxes before I'd be particularly interested.
Janet Lee
Thank you. Yep.
Operator
We have another question from Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed with your question.
Manan Gosalia
Hey, thanks for taking the follow-up. I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks that you could come in at the top end of the guide on customer-related fees.
Can you just talk about what the drivers are there?
Scott McLean
Manan, this is Scott. I think we're inclined to make that comment principally because we're seeing really good momentum across a wide range of our customer fee product areas, and we see that carrying into the new year.
That combined with this additional advertising and these products just give us really a nice outlook, we think, on customer fee income. Instead of capital markets dominating the growth in our fee income, we're very encouraged by what we're seeing across almost all of our fee income businesses.
That's a little bit different story and a little bit different guide
Manan Gosalia
relative to what you've said before. Got it.
Scott McLean
Yeah.
Manan Gosalia
Thank you.
Ryan Richards
Manan, we appreciate you found your way back into the queue.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital. You may proceed with your question.
Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director and Associate Director of US Research, RBC Capital Markets):
Jon Arfstrom
Thanks. A couple of follow-ups.
Scott, one for you. When you look in the earnings release, the FTEs are down the last couple of quarters, and you might have just touched on it a few minutes ago, but can you talk a little bit more about what you're doing in terms of AI and tech and just the general FTE outlook?
Are you seeing real impacts and that's what's showing up in the FTE count? Yeah.
Scott McLean
No, thank you for that question. You'll remember a high point for us was August, really the third quarter, second quarter of 2019, when we were at about 10,300 colleagues.
We're now down below 9,300, and we think that number will continue to go down over the next couple of years. It's over the short term here, outsourcing, our outsourcing strategy, we've been re-engaging with that and with three outstanding partners that work with us in other ways as well.
That will continue to have momentum. We probably, a year ago, we were well below where peers are.
Most peers would report that they outsource somewhere between 10 to 15% of their stated FTE base, and we were probably around 3%. We're really just leaning into a lever that has always been available to us, but we're more encouraged and confident about it.
That's where you're going to see some of it. The use of AI, again, we've been using AI for a long time for things like fraud detection, client authentication, product recommendations, financial statement spreading, some unstructured document processing, etc.
The proliferation of new ideas that can remove touches, human touches from a process, can remove multiple data entry, can streamline what we do, it's significant. We're moving kind of from an exploratory phase, which I'd say we've been in for the last year and a half, to really highly focused on a small couple of handfuls of projects where we can see the most leverage in simplifying what we're doing in end-to-end processes.
Those would be the kind of automation, AI, outsourcing would be pretty meaningful contributors. Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director and Associate Director of US Research, RBC Capital Markets):
Jon Arfstrom
Okay. Thank you for that.
Then just one more loan growth, just the improved expectations. Are the borrowers more optimistic, or is it you becoming more comfortable, or a combination of both?
Then I'm just also curious what's going on at Commerce Bank. The growth numbers were pretty strong there, if you could touch on that.
Thanks.
Scott McLean
I'm happy to take the first one. I think borrowers are business owners, CEOs.
They're kind of in the same place they've been for the last couple of years. Again, between commercial real estate industry concerns, tariffs, the economy in general, whatever happens to be in the newspaper this morning, it just has people a little uncertain.
I think that's one piece. The other piece is just we feel very encouraged about all the steps we're taking to grow, which we've talked about in this call.
Harris Simmons
I'd say Commerce Bank, they're relative size. They can produce more volatility probably in terms of growth numbers than you'd see in other parts of the company.
I don't think there's anything that's probably necessarily a trend there. Jon Arfstrom (Managing Director and Associate Director of US Research, RBC Capital Markets):
Jon Arfstrom
Okay. Thank you.
Appreciate it.
Operator
This now concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Shannon Drage for closing comments.
Shannon Drage
Thank you, Vaughn, and thanks everyone for joining us tonight. We appreciate your interest in Zions Bancorporation.
If you have additional questions, please contact us at the email or phone number listed on our website, and we look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months. This concludes our call.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference.
Please disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.