• The U.S. Department of Defense has developed contingency plans for a scenario in which President Nicolás Maduro leaves power in Venezuela.
  • The planning comes as Venezuela grapples with its worst economic crisis in history, with hyperinflation projected to reach 270-370% by year-end and GDP expected to shrink by 4.8%.
  • The U.S. is monitoring the situation closely, with the country's stability seen as a strategic concern given its heavy dependence on oil exports, which financed approximately 58 percent of the government's budget in 2024.

Contingency Planning Amid Deepening Crisis

Senior U.S. defense officials have confirmed the existence of contingency plans for Venezuela, a move that underscores Washington's assessment of the country's fragile political and economic state. The planning, described by people familiar with the matter as a routine but necessary precaution, is focused on maintaining regional stability and preparing for potential humanitarian or security challenges that could arise from a sudden political transition.

This development comes as Venezuela's crisis deepens. An estimated 7.9 million Venezuelans—roughly 28.6% of the population—now require humanitarian assistance, according to recent assessments. Over 20 million live in multidimensional poverty, struggling with inadequate access to food and essential services. The currency has depreciated by 381% over the past 12 months, crippling the economy.

A Volatile Political Landscape

President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third term in 2025 despite widespread international condemnation and credible evidence that he lost the presidential election. His government has been accused of democratic backsliding, including restricting internet access, detaining political opponents, and repressing civil society organizations. This political repression, combined with the economic freefall, has created a tinderbox scenario that international observers and foreign governments are watching with increasing concern.

“When you have a nation in this level of distress, with a government whose legitimacy is contested by a significant portion of the international community, it is prudent to plan for various outcomes,” said one source briefed on the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the specifics of its planning.

Strategic Implications and Regional Stability

The strategic calculus for the U.S. and its allies is complex. Venezuela remains a major oil producer, and any significant internal upheaval could disrupt global energy markets. Furthermore, the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans fleeing the crisis has already strained neighboring countries. A sudden power vacuum or intensified conflict could accelerate this exodus, creating a broader regional emergency.

Defense analysts note that the contingency planning is likely less about military intervention and more about coordinated responses with regional partners, potential support for international aid corridors, and intelligence-sharing to prevent the crisis from spilling over borders in destabilizing ways. The focus, they say, is on being prepared to act swiftly in support of diplomatic and humanitarian efforts should the political situation change abruptly.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the projected GDP contraction for 2025. The correct figure is a 4.8% shrink, not 5.8%